MQHIEN cau - TRAO DOI
Du" bao tang tru'dng kinh te cac vung dan toe va mien nui den nam 2030
LCrdNG VAM KHOr D 6 V A N LAM"
HOAMG TH! MINH H A -
Bai viet nay su" dung nguon dfl" Mu tuf nam 2000 d§'n nam 2018 duTrfc thu thap tiif nidn giam thong ke cac tinh (bao gom so'lieu cho cac chi tieu, nhtf: GRDP, vO'n dau trf...) va T^ng cue Thd'ng ke (cho s6'Ii§u lao dong), bang cac mo hinh phan tich dinh Itftfng, nhdm tac gia da Itfa chpn 47 tinh dtftfc coi la eac tinh thupc viing dSn t6c va mien nui va ttfcftig tfng vdi 6 vung kinh te - xa hdi co 6 viing d§n tpc va mien nui (bao g6m 47 tinh tren) de dtf bao tang trtfdng ddn nam 2030. Day se la ctf sd, t i l n di giup cac ctf quan quan ly chu ddng trong dieu hanh kinh t§' - xa hdi trong giai doan tdi.
THL/C TRANG PHAT TRIEN KINH TE - XA H 6 | CUA CAC VUNG KINH TE - XA H 6 | VIET NAM
Thanh tifu
Nhin chung, cac vung kinh td' - xa hdi da tffng bu'de phat huy tiem nang, ldi thg' va dat dtfde nhffng bffdc phat trie'n tich cffc. Td'c dp tang trifdng ciia phan ldn cac vung kinh te' la kha cao va trong xu hu'dng lang nhe. Giai doan 2011-2018, GRDP ciia 6 vung kinh td' - xa hdi trung binh lang khoang 7,2%/nam, trong dd, td'c dp tang tru'dng GRDP binh quSn giai doan cua vung Trung du va mien nui phia Bac ludn d mffc cao nha't so vdi eac vung khae trgn ca nu'dc (ttung binh I: TOC DO TANG TRtfdNG GRDP CGA 6 VGNG KINH TE - XA HOI
CUA VIET NAM TROfiG GiAl DOi^^^ 2011-2018 Dan vi: %
iraLon;
1 thdng ke cac Einh. Tong cue Thong ke -a tinh toan cua n h o m nghien cUu
tren 8%). Vung B^c Trung Bd va Duyen hai midn Trung cd td'c dp lang tttfdng GRDP binh quan dtfng thff hai trong eac vung (khoang 7,5%/nam). Tay Nguyen la VLing kinh id' khd khan, vdi mtfc tang trtfdng GRDP tha'p nha't tren ca ntfdc (trung binh khoang tren 6%) (Hinh).
Cdc viing kinh te - .xa hgi ciia Viet Nam phdn ldn deu cd xu hudng dich chuyin tap trung tdng ty trong khu vUc eong nghiip - xay dung vd dich vu, gidm ty trgng khu vUe nong, ldm nghiip vd thuy sdn. Ty trpng khu vtfc ndng, lam nghiep va thiiy san trong GRDP cua cac vung giam nhanh, trong khi ty trpng khu vifc cdng nghiep va xay difng ciia ca 6 vung kinhle' deu dat kha cao trong cd cau kinh te, phan anh nhtfng ke't qua°tich etfc cua chinh sach dau tff phat trien, md rdng khu cdng nghigp, khu kinh td' tai cac viing. Ty trpng khu vffc dich vu ttfdngddiddngdeu6ca 6khu vffc' trung binh chidm khoang 39,8% trong GRDP cua vung (Cue Thdng kg 63 tinh/thanh
2001-2019). ""uiann, Mdc sdng ddn eu cua cd 6 vimg kinh
'^AITJIT ^"" ^-''^ ^!""' "''•"^ ^''<^c ^Wtfc quEin va nam 2011 ngtfdi niii phia ndng eao. So sanh thu nhap binh dau ngtfdi ciia nam 2018 va nam cd the tha'y, GRDP binh quan dau eua eua vung Trung du va mi^n ' T S , , " T h S , , • • ' T h S , , T r u n g t a m T h o n g t i n v a D t f b a o K i n h t e - x a h o i Q u o c g i a
56
Bac va viing Bac Trung Bd va Duyen hai miin Trung nam 2018 gap khoang 2 lan so vdi nam 2011, tie'p theo la stf thay doi vi mdc thu nhap binh qufin dau ngffdi d vung Ddng bang sdng Hdng va vung Ddng bang sdng Ctfu Long vdi cpn sd^ Itfdng ffng la 1,8 lan (Itfdng dtfdng vdi mtfc thay doi chung ciia ea ntfdc).
Sff thay dd'i ve thu nhap binh quan dau ngffdi tai viing Tay Nguyen va viJng Dong Nam Bd tifdng dffdng nhau, d mffe 1,6 lan (Cue Thd'ng ke 63 tinh/thanh, 2001-2019)".
Ndng sudt lao dgng cua cdc vitng kinh ti' - xd hdi cUa Viit Nam dugc cdi thien vd CO xu hudng tdng. Trong giai doan 2011-2018, vung Ddng Nam Bd tie'p luc la vung din dau ca nffdc ve nang suS't lao ddng. Nam 2018, nang sua't lao dpng ciia vung Ddng Nam Bd dat gin 207 trieu ddng/lao ddng tang 2,06 lan so vdi nang sual lao ddng ciia Vung nam 2011 va gap 2,2 lan so vdi mffc trung binh chung ciia ca nu'dc. Vung Trung du va midn nui phia Bac, vung Dong bang sdng Hong va viing Ddng bang sdng Cffu Long cd nang sua't lao ddng nam 2018 gap khoang 1,8 l^n so vdi nam 20] 1 (Td'ng cue Thd'ng kg, 2000-2018). Day la mdt trong nhtfng ye'u Id'cd't ldi ddng vai ttd quyet dinh tdi mffc do va chat Itfdng tang trtfdng kinh te'cua cac viing.
H'lnh thdnh mgt so cum ngdnh kinh te theo dia phugng. Mdt so' nganh cdng nghiep chg' bie'n, ehe' tao dtfdc tap trung phat trien chii ye'u tai mpt sd'tinh/thanh.
Cac nganh del, san xuS't trang phuc, san xua't da, chd' big'n do gd dtfdc phan bd tap trung nhieu nha't d khu vtfc cac linh Ddng Nam Bd va TP. Ho Chi Minh, Ng^nh san xua't dien tff, may vi tinh dffdc phan bd' chii ye'u d vung Dong bSng sdng Hdng, bao gdm Ha Ndi va cac linh lan can (Bac Ninh, Thai Nguyen).
Ngodi ra, he thd'ng giao thdng dtfdng bp, san bay, be'n eang, ha tang vidn thdng, thijy ldi, he thd'ng trtfdng hpc, bdnh vien, cac cdng trinh van hda, the' thao, cac trung ttm khoa hpe - ky thuat, tai chinh, hg thd'ng dd thi, da timg btfdc dffdc ddng bp hda. Lidn ke'l viing va ndi vung ngay cang dtfdc chu trpng, dat dtfdc mdt sd' ke'l qua nhtt: Van dd phan cap ngay cang rd rang va minh bach hdn; Cac to chffc va cac cd chd' hop tac lien vung dan dtfdc hinh thanh; Lffc Itfdng san xual, dieu chmh quy hoach phat trie'n da &\ii3c phan bd' lai phil hdp vdi the' manh cua tffng dia
BANG 1: GRDP BINH QtlAN DAO NGtfCJl CQA CAC VUMG KINH TE - XA HOI SO V(3l GDP BINH QUAN DAO rSGCTcJl CUA TOAN N&N KINH TE
GIAI DOAN 2011-2018 Dong bang sfltig Hong
Trung du vii mien niii ptiia Bac Bac Tmng Bo va Duyen hai mien Tmng Tay Nguyen
Dong Nam Bp Dong bang song Cifu Long
2011 0,69 0,53 0,63 0,65 2,25 0,77
2012 0,68 0,53 0,63 0,63 2,24 0,77
2013 0,69 0,53 0,65 0,62 2,20 0,78
2014 0,69 0,54 0,65 0,61 2.18 0,78
2015 0,70 0,55 0,66 0,60 2,16 0,77
2016 0,70 0,56 0.66 0,60 2,12 0,78
2017 0,71 0,58 0,67 0,60 2,08 0,79
2018 0.72 0,59 0.69 0,59 2,04 0,79 1 thong ke cac tinh, Tdng cue T h o n g ke
va tinh toan cua nhom nghien cu'u phu'dng; He thd'ng kd't ca'u ha tang, nha'l la ha lang giad
thdng dffdng bd Hen tinh va qud'e te' ttfng btfdc dtfdc xay dtfng va dong bd; Khdng gian kinh le' du lich viing thd'ng nhat dtfdc thie't lap; Lien ke't dao tao va phat trien ngudn nhan lu'c dtfdc dS'y manh; Hdp tac trong viec huy ddng vd'n dau ttf va xay dtfng cd che' chinh saeh de' dau tif phat trien chung cua vCing cung difdc quan lam trien khai; Cdng tae xuc he'n dau ttf, thtfdng mai va du lich loan vung da dtfdc chu y; Cac van de ve cai thien mdi trffdng kinh doanh, dau tff, nang eao nang life canh tranh VLing; xay dtfng he thd'ng thdng tin va ttao doi thdng tin kinh td'- xa hdi, dau ttt tren dia ban; Hdp tac bao ve mdi trtfdng, ffng phd vdi thien lai va bie'n ddi khi hau cung trd thanh ndi dung chinh trpng hen kd't vung.
Mdt so'tdn tai, han che'va nguydn nh3n Tde do tdng trudng GRDP eua ede vung kinh li - xd hgi cua Viet Nam chua thuc su dong deu. Viing Dong bang sdng Hong va vung Trung du va mien nui phia Bac cd mtfc tang vUdl ttpi, trung binh dat 8,28%/nam.
Td'e dO tang trifdng GRDP binh quan giai doan 2016- 2018 deu cao hdn so vdi giai doan 2011-2015. Ngtfdc iai, viing Ddng Nam Bd cd mtfc tang trtfdng GRDP binh quan d mtfc tha'p nhat, ehi dat 6,29%/nam. Dang chu y, vung Ddng Nam Bp da tang trtfdng cham Iai nhffng nam gan day (ngttdc lai xu hffdng cac vung cdn lai). Giai doan 2016-2018, eung vdi xu htfdng giam gia dau the'gidi, td'c dp tang GRDP binh quan vung Ddng Nam Bd ehi dat 5,61% (so vdi mtfc tang 6,69% binh quan giai doan 2011-2015) (Cue Thd'ng kd 63 tinh/
thanh, 2001-2019).
Miic sdng ddn cU con cd sU chenh lech gida cdc vung. GRDP binh quSn ddu ngtfdi eua vung Ddng Nam Bp gap hdn 2 lan so vdi GDP binh quan dau ngifdi eua loan nen kinh id', trong khi GRDP binh quan dau ngtfdi ciia cac vimg Tay Nguyen va Trung du va mien nui phia Bac chi bang 0,58 itn so vdi mtfc thu nhap binh quan cua ca nffdc. Vimg Tay Nguyen vffa cd mtfc GRDP binh qu3n dau ngtfdi tha'p vtfa cd stf cai thien cham nhat ve mtfc sd'ng dan cff so vdi cae vung cdn lai. Trong sud't giai doan 2011-2018, cd the' tha'y, mtfc GRDP binh quan dau ngtfdi cua cac vung so vdi loan qud'c bid'n ddng khdng nhidu (Bang 1).
Ndng sud't lao dgng ed nhiiu khac biet. Ddng Nam Bp tie'p luc la vung dan dau ea ntfdc ve nang sua't lao
57
1GHIEN CCIG - TRAO DOI
ddng. Nang sua't lao ddng cua vung Ddng Nam bd nam 2018 (dat 206,99 trieu ddng/lao ddng) cao gap 2,06 l^n so vdi nang suS't lao dpng eua Vung nay nam 2011 vk gap 2,3 lan so vdi mffc trung binh chung cua ca nffdc.
Cac vung cdn Iai ed mffc nang sua't lao dpng tha'p hdn mffc trung binh ciia ca ntfdc. Trong do, Dong bang sdng Ctfu Long ed nang sua't lao dpng dat 73,19 trieu ddng/
lap ddng; viing Dong bang sdng Hdng dat 65,76 trieu dong/iao ddng (Tdng cue Thdng ke, 2000-2018). Nang sua't lao ddng cua cac vung Trung du va mien nui phia Bac, vung Bac Trung Bd va Duyen hai niiln Trung va vung Tay Nguydn cdn tha'p so vdi mtfc trung binh cua ca nude, do xua'l phat diem lac hau, tnnh dd lao dong va khoa hpc, cdng nghe chffa dtfdc cai thien nhieu. Mac du da cd nhtfng nd life de tiep can cdng nghe tien tig'n, nhtfng vSn tdn tai sff chenh lech ve tnnh dp cdng nghe gitfa cac viing kinh te' - xa hpi eua Vidt Nam.
Xudt khdu chl tap trung vdo mgt sd dia phuang, vdng trung tdm. Mffdi dia phffdng xuS't kh^u ldn nhS't (ehid'm khoang 75% long gia tri kim ngach xuat - nhSp khau cua Vigt Nam) chi tap trung tai: Cac trung tam kinh te' (Ha Ndi va TP. Ho Chi Minh); Cac dia phu'dng lap rap san pham ky thuat cao (Thai Nguyen va BSc Nmh); Cac dia phtfdng tham gia chd'lap, che'bie'n hang hoa stf dung nhieu lao dpng (Binh Dtfdng, Hai Phdng, Ddng Nai, Long An va Bac Giang), ehu yd'u tap ttung d vung Dong bang sdng Hong va Ddng Nam Bd.
Tdng trudng kinh le khong dong diu giUa cde vdng ddn den nhieu bdt cap. Mtfe dd tap trung khdng deu cua cac trung tSm chd' xuat cd the giy thach thffc cho cac doanh nghidp ve tuyen dung lao dpng, logistics va cung ffng; ddng thdi din dd'n tang so' lifdng nhap ctf ngoai dtf kid'n d mpt sd'tinh va dia phffdng, tao ra thach thffc ldn cho chinh quyen dia phifdng ve cung ca'p cac dich vu cdng ed ban cho ngffdi nhap cif. Chinh quyen dia phtfdng gap nhieu khd khan trong viec thu hut FDI cd trpng diem do khd xae dinh ldi the' so sanh cua viing de' dinh htfdng dau ttf cung nhtf dffa ra eac hd trd nham day manh cae ldi the canh tranh ciia ttfng vung. Sffphat trie'n thig'u dong deu cung dSn de'n sff thie'u hut cac chinh saeh vd xay dffng kg't cau ha tang, hd trd giao thdng, kd't nd'i cac tinh, thanh, khu vffc.
DL/f AOTANG TRl/dNG CAC VUNG DAN TOC VAMIEN NUP
Bo'i canh kinh td' giai do^n 2021-2030 Bdi canh kinh te the gidi
Tang trffdng kinh te' the' gidi giai doan 2021-2030 dffdc dff bao cham lai so vdi giai doan trffdc. Dif bao mtfc tang trtfdng dat dtfdc ttung binh giai doan 2021- 2025 va 2026^2030 lan ltfdt la 3,5%-3,6% va 3%- 3 2%' Trong dd, xu htfdng canh tranh gitfa cac cifdng
manh mS va qudc dien ra ngay cang ^4"
Phi?c tap. chie'n Xu hffdng Uo hd ^li Lfdng ni^'
tranh thtfdng mai va chu «fh^^^ft" S f tie'p tue can trd da lang ttffdng the gidL - " chi chid'n tranh thffdng mai gitfa ma chien ttanh Khdng c
My va Trung Qudc -
thtfdng mai cd the' lan rpng, I^^ '^"^
cd khf nang danh thud' vdi kh"Jf?^^V^
Tuy vay, eac thda thuan song phtfdng la xu htfdng ttong thdi gian tdi co the gmp giam nhfet cac eang i h k g hm^f. '^"^S nhtf eac thd chg'da phtfdng cai tP 1^1 each thffe hoat ddng cd thd kidm che bdt cac eang thang dang ngay cang leo ttiang^
Thttdng mai thg' gidi dtf kien tang trtfdng d mffc'tha'p, ttf mtfc trung binh 4% giai doan 2021-2025 cdn trung binh 3,5% nam 2026-2030^ Mae du cac hiep dinh thtfdng mai iff do the he mdi co thg' hd trd thuc day thffdng mai quoc te, nhffng nhffng can trd tff cac hang rap bao hd thffdng mai se ngay cang manh me.
Bdi cdnh kinh teVi^t Nam Mgt sd xu hudng chinh cUa kmh ti Viit Nam de'n ndm 2030
Nen kinh le' Viet Nam da d^t dtfdc thanh edng nhS't dinh, nhtfng nen tang cho edng nghiep hda, hien dai hda dat nffdc chtfa thtfc stf vffng chac. Ben canh do, hoi nhap qud'c td' tao dieu ki$n cho tang trtfdng kinh le' va thuc d^y cai each the che", cai thign mdi trtfdng kmh doanh, nhu'ng eung tao ra nhieu rui do ttf ben ngoai dd'i vdi nen kinh td' Viet Nam.
Stf tie'n bd cua khoa hpe edng nghe trong Cach mang Cdng nghiep lan thff 4 (CMCN 4.0) cd the' se thay ddi each thtfc san xual, nang cao nang sua't lao dpng, thay dpi ve ban chat boat ddng thifdng mai va heu dung tai Viet Nam.
Md hmh tang trtfdng kinh tg' dang dan chuye'n htfdng phat trien theo chieu sSu, sff chuyen httdng nay se difdc tie'p tue day manh ttong thdi gian tdi. Chinh phu quye't tam day nhanh cai each the' chd, ddi mdi md hinh tang tru'dng, phat huy ddng life lang trtfdng mdi Va dieu kien quye't dinh de'n hieu qua tang trtfdng kinh te' trong giai doan tiep thep.
Khu vtfc tif nhSn phat ttien manh me ttong nhtfng nam gSn day va dang dan trd thanh dpng life quan trpng cho phat va mien niii trong 6 viing kinh te-\a lioi. \em muc "Nguon so iieu dir bao I Chi tiet xac dinh vOng dan
dan toe va mien niii" 6 difdi . ^, „ , -
= So tifdng iJng vdi mffc trung Wnh 3,66%/nam va 3.61 %/nam gia, do, ' So tirong ffng v6i mfe 4,1%/nam va 3,94%/nam giai doan 2011-2(H
'a chon v U 1-2015 va 2016-202(1
2016-2020.
trien kinh te' - xa hdi eua Vidt Nam trong thdi gian tdi.
Tuy nhien, mdt sd' xu hffdng ldn ciia nen kinh te' Viet Nam, nhtf: viec dd'i mat vdi tinh trang gia hda dan so' nhanh, dan so tang ch$m, to'c dp tang life Itfdng lao dpng theo htfdng giam din... cd thd gSy ap Iffc Ign he thd'ng an sinh xa hpi cung nhff quy md life ltfdng lao ddng ttong thdi gian tdi.
C/iM ky tdng trudng
Trong giai doan 2011-2015, nen kinh te' Viet Nam da cd nhiJng btfdc chuydn manh me trong viec dn dinh kinh te' vT mo. Theo dd, nam 2011, Viet Nam dat miic lam phat cao va xuS't hidn nhffng da'u hieu bS't d'n vT md, tuy nhien, bat dau tff nam 2013, nen kinh td' da dan dn dinh va cd xu htfdng phuc hdi manh me. Giai doan 2016-2020 the hien nhtfng btfdc nhay vol ciia kinh td' Vidt Nam khi nen kinh te'ludn dn dinh d mtfc lam phat tha'p va tang trtfdng dtfde duy tri d mffc cao.
Theo do, gia thie't dat ra ia quy dao tang trffdng theo cac kich ban la dat dinh vao giai doan 2021-2025 va giam dan ttong giai doan 2026-2030, nhtfng van cao hdn giai doan 2016-2020. Didu nay cd thd' hieu do xu htfdng giam da tang trtfdng ciia thg' gidi va tac ddng lan truyen dd'n tiJnen kinh te'cua ca ntfdc.
Cu thd: Cac vung dSn toe va midn nui hien nay cdn gap rS't nhieu khd khan, dac biel la kg't cau ha tang dan de'n eae lmh vifc san xua't edn gap nhidu khd khan, Dua trdn md hinh cua Micheal Porter vdi 5 cffc de' phan tich kha nang eanh tranh ciia qud'e gia/viing/linh cho tha'y, cac vung dan ldc va mien nui cdn rat nhidu ldi the' trong san xua't, cung cap san pham cho cac vung khac, nhffng ban che' ldn nhd't la vi tti dia Iy va ke't ca'u ha ting lam can trd sif ph£t tridn cua vung, Ne'u trong nhffng nam tdi, cac vimg nay dffdc dau tu ke'l ca'u ha tang, dam bao dffdc kgnh phan phd'i san pham va stfhd trd ttf chinh quyen dia phifdng va chinh quyen Trung ffdng, thi hem nang phat ttien ciia cac viing dan tde va mien nui cdn rat ldn.
Nhtf vay, ne'u eac vung nay hdi tu dii eae dieu kien can thie't, dae biet la vd kd't ca'u ha tang va chinh sach hd trd, cd the phattridn kinh td'- xa hdi trong giai doan 2021-2030 cua cac viing nay se ed nhffng bffdc ddt pha mdi.
Cac gia thie't dff bao
De dif bao dffdc cac chi tieu vT md cua titng viing dan tpc va mien nui, nhdm
BAIHG 2: ivlOT SO GIA DINH DAU VAO CHO CAC KICH BAN P H A T T R I E N KINH T E - XA HOI
A 1 2 B 1 2 3
2011 -2015
2016 -2020
Kich ban trung binh 2021 -2025
2026 -2030
Kich bSn cao 2021 -2025
2026 -2030 KINH TE THE GlCil
To'c do tang GDP (%) To'c do lang ihiTOng mai (%)
3,66 4,11
3,61 3,94
3,5 4,0
3,0 3.7
3,6 4,1
3,2 3,8 KINH TE TRONG Nl/dC
Toe do tang dan so (%) Toe do tang GDP (%) T>J glii (nghm VND/USD)
1,07 5,91 20,57
1,04 6,74 22,57
0.75 7,00 24,33
0,60 6,50 25.96
0,75 7,50 23,97
0,60 7,00 25,2
n giam thong ke
Mgu6n MIGEM (cO sd dif !ieu tir mo hinh NiCEM V, 1 la Trung tam Thong tin va Dif bao Kmh te - xa hoi Quoc gia), c tinh, Tflng cue Thong ke va tinh toan cua nhom nghien cifu nghien ctfu difa vao mdt sd' gia dinh dau vao cho eae
kich ban phat trien kinh te' - xa hdi dtfde ndu cu the nhu' Bang 2.
Md hinh su" dung d^ di^ bao Mo hinh dif bdo GRDP
De dtf bao dtfdc GRDP cua eae tinh/vung dSn ldc va midn nui dd'n 2030, nhdm nghien cffu thffc hien chia khoang dtfa bao thanh hai khoang bao gom khoang dif bao 2018-2020 va 2021-2030. Muc dich cua viec phan chia khoang dtf bao nay lien quan mSt thie't tdi phifdng phap dtf bao. Theo do, trong ngdn hgn, GRDP cd the dff bao bang phtfdng phap chudi thdi gian ddn gian hoac chi la eae md hinh hdi quy ddn gian {bao gdm md hmh dtf bao theo nhip tang va md hinh ARIMA); Trong ddi hgn, cu the d day la giai doan 2021-2030 thi viec di^ bao GRDP se phu thudc rat ldn vao vd'n, lao ddng va khoa hpe edng nghd cua tinh. Do vay, nhdm nghidn etfu sff dung md hinh ham san xuS't Cobb-Douglas de dtf bao cho GRDP cua tinh trong giai doan 2021-2030.
Md hinh dUbdo vdn ddu tU
De dtf bao dffdc nhu cau vd'n dau ciia tinh dd'n nam 2030, nhdm nghien etfu chia giai doan dtf bao lam hai giai doan eu the nhtt sau:
- Giai doan dtf bao 2018-2020: Chung tdi dtf bao difa tren phtfdng phap Md hinh ARIMA va ke't hdp vdi y kie'n chuyen gia de dtf bao. Nguyen nhan la do chudi so' Heu dtfdc sff dung dd dff bao la ngan nen ehung tdi phai ke't hdp nhieu phffdng phap dff bao dd dtta ra ke't qua dtf bao td't nha't.
- Giai doan 2021-2025 va 2026-2030, ehung tdi dff bao dtfa tren phffdng phap md hinh hdi quy bdi.
- Trong dd, md hinh kinh te' Itfdng de dtf bao FDI dttdc xay dtfng eu the nhtf sau:
I = f(GRDP, IG, L,t)
Md hinh dang Id ga difdc vie't nhtf sau:
Log(I) = [og(GRDP) + Log(L) -i- Log(IG) -t l-i- Ui Trong dd: I la vd'n dau ttf FDI ciia vCing GRDP - tdng san phara cua vung L - Lao ddng dang hoat dpng kinh te' IG - Vd'n dau ttf cdng ciia vung t - xu htfdng theo thdi gian Ui - nhidu eiia md hinh
NQHIEN CflU - TRAO DOI
BANG 3: KICH BAN TANG TRCT^NG CO Sd CUA CAC VUNG DAN TOC VA MIEN NUI TRONG CAC VCING KINH I E - XA HQI DEN NAM 2030
Vui^ 1:
DBSH 2021 -2025
2026 -2030
Vung 2:
•TOMNPB 2021 -2025
2026 -2030
Vung 3:
BTBDHMT 2021 -2025
2026 -2030
V&ng 4:
TSy Nguygn 20271 2026 -2025-2030
Vung 5:
Dong Nam B§
2021 -2025
2026 -2030
Vung 6:
DBSCL 2021 -2025
Kinh te' ^ _ _ _ _ _ TS'c do tang tnlSng GRDP
(sia so sanh 2010) (%) Co ca'u lanh te (theo gia hien hanh) (ty Irong cac khu vifc san xua't) - Nong - Iam - ngu nghiep (%) - Cong nghiep - xay dUng (%) - Cdc nganh dich \u (%)
- Thue san phd'm tri^ tiff cap sdn pham {%) Tong san pham trong vflng binh quan dau ngiTcfi den cuoi giai doan (USD) (tinh theo gia hien hanh)
7.7 100 5 40,5 42,5 12 6.800
7,15 100 4.5 41 43.5 11 9.900
6,25 100 17 37 41 5 3.375
5,9 100 72,5 40 42.5 5 4.875
6,2 100 14 40 39,5 6.5 4.050
5,9 100
n
41 41 6 5.850
5,9 100 25 41 29 5 2.925
5,76 100 22 42 31 5 4.225
8 100 4.4 38.5 46.1 11 9-450
7,6 100
~'^4j\
38.6 46.3 11 13,650
7.4 iOO 37 26.5 32.3 4.2 4.838
2026 -2030
7 100 35 27 34 4
6.988 Xa hgi
Ty le tang dan so tif nhien (%) Ty le lao dong tiJ 15 tudi trci len dang lam viec trong nen kinh te'da qua dao tao (%)
i.G3 40,5
1 50
1.1 21,75
1,05 25,8
0,62 25,8
0,6 31,5
1,59 15.9
1,61 18,5
1,85 34.8
1.7 43,9
0,45 17,3
0.5 22,31 Ghi chii: DBSH' Dong bdng song Hong:
Trung: DBSCL: DSng bdng sdng Ciiu Long
TDMNPB: Trung du miin nut phia Bac; BTBDHMT: Bdc Trung Bo va Duyen hdi n
Mauon Tmh toan cua r.hom nghis'^ i Cac kich ban dtf bao tang trrfofng kinh te cua cac viing dan tde va mien niii
Du'a treu bd'i eanh kinh te' trong va ngoai ntfdc cung nhu' dac tru'ng kinh te' ciia ttfng vung va mdt sd gia thie't dtf bao dtfpc neu d tren, stf phatlrien kinh td'- xa hOi cua eac vung dtfde dtf bao theo hai kich ban eu the' vdi dieu kien:
(1) Kich bdn casd:
_^ De dat dtfde kich ban nay, ngoai nhtfng nd Itfecua viing trong viec phat huy nhtfng ldi the' san cd ttfng viJng, thi nhtfng ye'u to' ben ngoai dtfdc gia thie't nhif:
-^ Kinh te' the' gidi on dinh, khdng cd nhieu bie'n ddng dia chinh tri qua ldn anh htfdng lieu etfc de'n kinh te' cua ca ntfdc ndi chung va cua vung ndi neng, td'c dp tang tru:dng kinh te toan eau duy tri d mtfe giam nhe trung binh khoang 3 5%
- Kinh te trong nifdc 6n dinh va it bi tac dong ttf kinh td' the' gidi. Chuye'n dd'i mo hinh kmh te' cd nhtfng bifdc chuye'n bien lich ctfc, hieu qua difOc nang cap
••47 linh vung dan toe va miin nui gom: Hai Difdng, Tay Ninh, An Giang, VTnh Phiic, Thira Thien Hue, Qudng Tn Bi h Dinh, Thanh Hoa, Khanh Hoa. Ba Ria Vung Tau, Bac Lieu. Ha TTnh. Phu Yen. Quang Binh. Hau Giang, NinhV Quang Ngai. Kien Giang, Quang Nam, D6ng Nai, Nghe An, Ninh Thuan, Tra Vinh, Quang Nmh, B'lnh ThuSn Ca M ' Thai Nguyen, Phu Tho, BJc Giang, Soc Trang. Binh Phifdc, Lai Chau. Dien Bien, Gia Lai.Dak L,Tk. Sdn La'v" R-"' Lao Cai, Lam Dong. Ha Giang, Tuyen Quang, Hoa Bmh, Cao Bang. Kon Turn. Bac Kan, Dak Nong, Lang Sdn
Dii bdo dan so'vd dii bdo cdu lao dgng Trtfde hd't, de dtf bao tdVg san phlm trong cac vung dan tpc va mien nui binh quan dau ngtfdi, nhdm nghien ctfu stf dung phu'ong phap dtf bao chudi thdi gian de dtf bao dan so' cua eae vung de'n nam 2030.
Dd'i vdi dtf bao lao dpng, cd nhieu phtfdng phap dif bao cau lao ddng. Nhdm nghien ctfu Itfa chpn phtfdng phap dtf bao Ty le thay ddi (shift-share).
Nguon so' Udu dii bao va chpn viing dan tde va mi^n niii
- Nguon sd' lieu stf dung sd' lieu theo tmh ttf nam 2000 de'n nam 2018 du'dc thu thap ttf nien giam thd'ng ke cac tinh (bao g6m sd' lieu cho cac ehi lieu, nhtf' GRDP, vd'n dau lu'...) va Tong cue Thd'ng kd (eho so' lieu lao dpng).
- V^ vide Itfa chon vung dan tde va mien nui theo viing kinh te' - xa hdi, nhdm nghien ctfu lifa chon cac tinh cd ty Id eac xa thudc khu vtfc I, II, III (Theo Quye't dmh sd'582/QD-TTg, ngay 28/4/2017 phd duyet danh sach thdn dac bidt khd khan, xa khu vtfe III, khu vtfc II, khu vtfc I thuOc vung dan tpc thieu sd' va mien nui giai doan 2016-2020) tren tdng sd'xa cua loan tinh ldn hdn 10%. Theo do. se ed 16 xa khdng dam bao tidu chi tren va dtfdc loai ra khoi mlu va sd'tinh cdn Iai dtfde coi la vung Dan tpc va Mien mii bao gom 47 tinh."*
BANG 4: KICH BAN TANG TRtTCiNG CAO CGA CAC VGNG DAN TQC vA MIEN NGI TRONG CAC VCING KINH TE DEN NAM 2030
I 1 2
3 11 8 9
Viing 1:
DBSH 2021 -2025
2026 -2030
Viing 2:
TDMNPB 2021 -2025
2026 -2030
Viing 3:
BTBDHMT 2021 -2025
2026 -2030
Viing 4:
TSy Nguyen 2021 -2025
2026 -2030
Viing 5:
Dong Nam B$
2021 -2025
2026 -2030
Viing 6;
DBSCL 2021 -2025
2026 -2030 Kinh te
Toe dp tang tnTSng GRDP (gia so sanh 2010) (%) Cd cau kinh te'(theo gia hien hunh) (ty trong cac khu vi/c sdn xua't) - Ndng - lain - ngU nghiep (%) - Cdng nghiep - xdy dtfng (%}
- Cdc ngdnh dich vu (%j
• Thue sdn phdm tri( trff cdp sdn phdm (%) Tong san pham trong viing b5nh quan dau ngUfii dg'n cud'i giai doan (USD) (tinh theo gia hien hanh}
8,25 100 4,5 4!
43 11,5 8 250
1,1
IOO 4 41,5 44 10,5 10,500
/
100 15 39,5 40.4 5.1 4.125
6,5 100 10 42,1 42,8 5,1 5.250
/
100 13 41 39 7 4.950
6,5 100 11 42 40,5 6,5 6 300
6,6 100 23 41,5 30,5 5 3 575
6,3 100 20 42,5 32,5 5 4 550
9 100 4,2 38,6 46,2 11 11.550
8,2 IOO 4 38.7 46,3 11 14,700
8 IOO 35 27 33,5 4.5 5.913
7,5 100 33 28,5 34.5 4 7,.525 XS hoi
Ty le tang dan s6' Uf nhien (%) Ty le lao dong tH 15 tudi trd len dang lam viec trong nen kinh te da qua dao tao (%)
1,03 40,5
1 50
Ll 21,75
1.05 25,8
0,62 25,8
0,6 31,5
1,59 15,9
1,61 18,5
1,85 34,8
1,7 43,9
0,41 17,3
0,45 22,31
hdn. Tan dung va phat huy hieu qua cac hidp dinh thtfdng mai ttf do va thiie day kinh te'trong mfdc phat trien.
- Kinh td' - xa hdi eua cae vung dan tde va mien nui phat huy hieu qua htfdng den tang trtfdng ben vtfng. Duy tri va day manh phat trien nganh cdng nghiep. Phat huy td'i da tiem nang, ldi the' eua vung.
Ke't qua du bao doi vdi eae vung dan ldc va mien mii trong cac viing kinh te" - xa hdi dtfdc trinh bay trong Bang 3,
(2) Kich bdn cao
- Kich ban nay xay ra khi ed nhitng dilu kien thuan ldi ttf kmh te' the' gidi, theo do tang trifdng kmh td' the gidi (trung binh giai doan 2021-2025 la 3,6%
va 2026-2030 la 3,2%) va Ihtfdng mai (trung binh giai doan 2021 -2025 la 4,1 %
Mguon Tinh toan cua r va 2026-2030 la 3,8%) dtf bao dat kd't quk tieh ctfe hdn so vdi kich ban trung binh.
- Ve kinh td' trong ntfdc, ngoai vide phat huy hidu qua nguon vd'n va cac hiep dinh thtfdng mai ttf do, tap trung nhieu hdn vao viec chuyen ddi md hinh kinh te' de tao btfdc dot pha quan trpng dd' dat dtfdc td'e dd tang trtfdng cap trong giai doan 2021-2025.
- Ttfng viing dan tOc va mi^n niii c^n phai cd nhtfng giai phap cd the tan dung td't va khai thae dtfde nhtfng diem manh, ldi the' canh tranh ciia ttfng vitng. Tap trung phat trid'n kinh td' - xa hdi cua vung theo dung the'manh la dieu kien de tao nhtfng btfde dot pha mang tinh chid'n Itfdc, lau dai, ben vtfng trong dai han. Dac bidt, nha'n manh de'n vai trd, sif quye't tSm eua ddi ngu lanh dao tinh, cung toan the' nhan dan va stf hd trd manh me ttf chinh quyen Trung Udng.
Kd't qua dtf bao doi vdi cac vung dan ldc va mien mil trong cac vung kinh te'du'dc tririh bay trong Bang 4.G
TAI LIEUTHAiM KHAO _ _ _ _ 1. Cue Thpng ke 63 tinh/thanh phd (2001-2019). Men gidm thdng ke cde nam tU 2000-2018 2. Tong cue Thd'ng ke (2000-2018). Bdo cdo tinh hinh kinh te - xa hgi cde ndm td 2000-2018 3. Cobb, C. W., Douglas, P. H. (1928). A Theory of Production (PDF), American Economic Review, 18, 139-165
4. Romer, David (2000). Advanced Macroeconomics (2nd edition), MeGraw-Hill/Irwin 5. Shi, Chun-Yun, Yang Yang (2008), A Review of Shift-Share Analysis and its Application in Tourism, International Journal ofManagement Perspectives, 1 (1), 21 -30
6. Varian, Hal R. (1999). Intermediate Economies: A Modern Approach (5th edition), W. W. Norton 7. Ward Romp and Jakob de Haan (2005). Public Capital and Economic Growth: A critical Survey, The Europena investment Bank Papers, 10(1), 40-71
