NGHIlN CPU-TRAUfiOl
Tham hut can can thiring mai m Trung
- 'H^«^ ldu (fi fiai fiU^ di (km
• ThS. D A O THANH HlTCfNG Bo Ke h o a c h va D&u t i i
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hiing n a m qua, quan he thtfdng mai Viet Nam Trung Qudc cd stf p h a t trien vtfdt bac, kim ngach XK gitfa 2 ntfdc ngay cang tang va Trung Qudc hien la b a n hang ldn n h a t ciia Viet Nam. Tuy nhien, van de dang dat ra trong quan he thtfdng mai Viet Nam Trung Qud'c la miic dp n h a p sieu tang cao ciia Viet Nam tif Trung Qudc. Nhap sieu tif Trung Qudc b i t dau tang m a n h tii n a m 2001 va dinh diem la n a m 2009 khi chie'm g i n 92% tdng n h a p sieu cua Viet Nam va day la ye'u to chii yeu lam gia tang tham hut can can thtfdng mai ciia Viet Nam va gay a n h htfdng khdng td't den phat trien kinh te.Pham vi bai viet nay t a p trung chu yeu vao p h a n tich nguyen n h a n tham hut can can thtfdng mat Viet Nam Trung Qudc giai doan ttf 2001 den nay, ddng thdi de xua't mdt so giai phap nham cai thien tham hut can can thtfdng mai Viet Nam Trung Qud'c.
Giai doan 2001 den nay, kim ngach XK ciia Viet Nam sang Trung Qudc khdng ngifng tang cao. Trong giai doan nay, cd hai ndm kim ngach tang trtfdng theo dtfdng ddc dufng la 2004 va 2008 vdi kim ngach nam sau cao hdn nam trtfdc k h o i n g 1 ty USD, gia
tri cu the l i n Itfdt la 988 va 1.179 trieu USD ', dtfa tdng kim ngach DN ciia ntfdc ta sang Trung Qudc tang tii 1,4 ty USD nam 2001 len tren 7,3 ty USD nam 2010.
Trong giai doan nay, ty trpng kim ngach XK sang Trung Qud'c trong tdng kim ngach XK cua Viet Nam ttfdng ddi dn dinh, dao ddng quanh mtfc 7 de'n 8%, ngoai trif btfdc dot pha trong n a m 2004 dat 10,33%.
Viet Nam XK sang Trung Qude hdn 100 mat hang, thupc 4 nhdm m a t hang chinh la: (1) H i n g nhien nguyen heu: d i u thd, eao su, than, quang kim loai, c i c loai h a t cd d i u , dtfdc lieu; (ii) Hang ndng s i n : Itfdng thtfc, rau-cu-qui, ehe, hat dieu;
(ill) Hang thiiy s i n : thuy s i n ttfdi sdng, thuy s i n ddng lanh, mdt
sd loai mang tinh dac s i n nhtf:
r i n , rua, ba ba...; va (iv) Hang tieu diing: hang thii cdng my nghe, giay dep, do gd cao cap, bpt giat, banh keo...
Trung Qudc la thi trtfdng rpng ldn, nhtfng Viet Neim chtfa khai thae het ed hdi tidm nang trong viec XK sang thi trtfdng nay. XK ciia Viet Nam sang Trung Qudc nam 2010 chi chiem 0,5% tdng kim ngach NK cua Trung Qudc.
Neu d a n h gia Viet Nam Ii mdt qud'c gia nhd so vdi dp Idn ciia thi trtfdng, d i n den ty trpng XK khiem ton khdng h i n chinh xac, bdi neu phan tich eae ddi t i c ldn eung cap hang hda cho Trung Qudc nhiing nam g i n day ta se thay stf xuat hien dn dinh ciia T h i i Lan va Malaysia, la hai qud'c gia nhd cd cd ca'u ^ ^
THUONG M f l So 34/2011 1 9
NGHIlN ciiu-TRAP DPI
C ^ XK kha ttfdng ddng vdi Viet Nam va khdng cd ldi the tdt vd mat vi tri dia ly ddi vdi thi trtfdng Trung Qudc nhtf Viet Nam. Nam 2010, XK ciia Malaysia v i Thai Lan chie'm ty trpng lan Itfdt l i 3,6% v i 2,4% trong tdng kim ngach NK ciia Trung Qudc, cao hdn nhldu l i n so vdi ty trpng ma Viet Nam dat dtfdc.
hdn 10 l i n so vdi n a m 2001 va t a n g g i n 19 ty USD vd gia tri tuyet ddi. Ket q u i l i Trung Qudc d i n trd t h a n h ddi t i c quan trpng nha't cua Viet Nam trong linh viic NK.
Cd cau hang NK tif Trung Qudc ttfdng ddi da dang, bao gdm 5 nhdm mat h i n g chinh nhtf sau:
(i) Thiet bl toan bd, nhtf: day
Bang 1. Thi tru'dng NK chu yeu cua Trung Quoc ^
(Ddn vi tinh: Trieu USD)
Tong kim ngach (trieu USD) 1. Nhat Ban
T^ trong (%) 2. Han Quoc
Tj? trgng {%) 3. My
Ty trong (%) 4. Ode
T!^ trong (%) 5. Australia
T^ trong (%) 6. Malaysia
Tj? trong (%) 7. Brazil
Tj? trong (%) 8. Thai Lan
T^ trong (%) 9. Saudi Arabia Ty trong (%) 10. Nga
T!^ trpng (%)
1995 132084
29007 21,9 10288 7.8 16123 12.2 8035 6.1 2585 2.0 2065 1.6 1228 0.7 1611 1.2 553 0,9 3799 2.9
2000 225094
41520 18.4 23208
10.3 22376 9.9 10411 4.6 5099 2.3 5480 24 1621
0.7 4380 1.9 1954 0.9 5769 26
2005 659950 100468 15.2 76874 11.6 48995 7.4 30688 4.6 16147 2.4 20108 3.0 9982 1.5 13994 2.1 12286 1.9 15886 2.4
2010 1393920
176304 12.6 138024 9.9 101959 7.3 74378 5.3 59698 4.3 50375 3.6 38038 2.7 33201 2.4 32862 2.4 25811 1.9
Trong khi XK Viet Nam sang Trung Qudc tang vdi tdc dp tha'p thi giai doan 2001 - 2010 chufng kien stf buft p h i m a n h me trong kim ngach NK tif Trung Qudc. Ttf nam 2002, sau khi vtfdt ngtfdng 2 ty USD, cii mdi n a m , kim ngach NK ttf Trung Qudc lai tang them hdn 1 ty USD. Dac biet n a m 2007, kim ngach NK tif Trung Qudc tang them hdn 5 ty USD so vdi n a m 2006. Mufc tang trtfdng n h a n h dtfdc duy tri trong thdi gian d i l khien cho kim ngach NK tuf Trung Qudc n a m 2010 da dat 20,02 ty USD, tang
1 0 1 THOONG MAI So 34/2011
chuydn s i n xuat xi mang Id diing, day chuydn s a n xuat dtfdng mia;
(ii) Miy mdc, phtfdng tien van t i i , thiet bi y te, thiet bi do Itfdng (ill) Nguyen,
nhien, vat lieu: xang d i u , phan bdn, xi mang, sat thep, kinh xay dtfng, vat lieu xay diing, s i n pham hda chat, nguyen phu lieu det may va da giiy; (iv) Hang ndng s i n : hat gidng, hoa qua dn ddi nhtf le, tid..., d i u thiie vat.
bdt my, dtfdng; va (v) Hang tieu diing v i dtfdc pham: xe miy, phu tiing xe m i y , s i n pham di§n dien tii, ddng hd, q u i n ao, dd chdi tre em, cay l i m thudc.
Viec NK nhieu loai hang hda tuf Trung Qud'c da dap ufng nhu cau cua thi tnidng trong ntfdc, dac biet gii c i canh tranh ciia h i n g Trung Qudc da tao cd hpi tieu diing ldn hdn cho ngtfdi dan Viet Nam. Tuy nhien, kim ngach NK tuf Trung Qudc q u i ldn va tang tnidng qua n h a n h da gay n e n tinh trang n h a p sieu eho ndn kinh te Viet Nam.
Giai doan 2001 - 2010, do NK tii Trung Qudc khdng ngifng tang cao trong khi tdc dp tang cua XK chi duy tri d mufc dn dinh d i n tdi t h a m hut can can thtfdng mai vdi Trung Qudc tang rat nhanh, tuf 189 trieu USD nam 2002 len 12,61 trieu USD n a m 2010, ttfe n h a p sieu da tang gap g i n 67 l i n sau 9 nam. (Xem hdng 2)
Nhap sieu tif Trung Qudc chiem p h i n ldn tdng nhap sieu cua Viet Nam. Nam 2001, ty trpng n h a p sieu tuf Trung Qudc chiem l i 18,7% n h a p sieu eua c i ntfdc. T^ trpng dd binh quan 4 n a m 2006 2010 tang len 79%, trong dd n a m 2008 tha'p n h a t la 69,85%.
Bang 2. Nhap sidu cua Viet Nam vdi Trung Quoc giai doan 2001 - 2008 ^
ff)dn t;i ixnh Trieu USD) Nam
Nhdp sidu
2001
189
2004
1.721
2010
12.610
Nguyen n h a n chu ydu i n h htfdng tdi quan he thtfdng mai Viet Trung bao gdm: (i) Qua trinh ttf do hda thtfdng mai; (ii) Cd cau h i n g hda XNK giiia hai ntfdc; (iii) Ludng vdn d i u ttf trtfc tiep ttf Trung Qudc vao Viet
Nam; (iv) Ty gia gitfa Nhan dan te va Viet Nam ddng; (v) Stfc canh tranh cao hdn ciia h i n g hda Trung Qudc: (vi) Stf tham gia cua cac n h a t h i u Trung Qudc trong c i c cdng trinh ldn ciia Viet Nam: va (vli) Stf p h a t trien cua boat ddng thtfdng mai bien gidi.
Chung ta di sau vao p h a n tich c i c n h a n td sau:
Luong vdn FDI td Trung Qudc vdo Viet Nam
Tinh den t h i n g 8 / 2 0 1 1 , Trung Qudc (chtfa ke Dai Loan, Hdng Kdng, Ma Cao) cd 801 dtf an cdn hieu liic tai Viet Nam vdl tdng vdn dang ky 4,13 ty USD.
Trung Qudc hien dtfng thtf 14 trong so 93 qudc gia va vung lanh thd da cd d i u ttf tai Viet Nam.
Cac dtf a n d i u ttf eua Trung Qudc t a p trung chii yeu trong linh vtfc cdng nghiep che bie'n, che tao, chiem k h o i n g 77% sd dii an; tiep theo la linh vtfc kinh doanh bat ddng s i n , chiem 15%
sd dtf an, cdn lai l i cae dtf a n d i u ttf trong cac Iinh vtfc khac.
Vdn d i u ttf ciia Trung Qud'c t i p trung chu yeu theo hinh thtfc 100% vdn ntfdc ngoai ben canh cac hinh thtfc nhtf lien doanh, h0p ddng hdp t i c kinh doanh va Cty cd p h i n *
Stf gia tang dau ttf tnic tie'p ntfdc ngoai ttf Trung Qudc va Viet Nam keo theo stf gia tang ve kim ngach NK ttf Trung Qude.
Sdc cq.nh tranh cao hcfn cua hdng hod Trung Qudc
Nhtfng yeu to tao n e n stfc canh tranh cua h i n g hda Trung Qud'c la:
Hang hda NK ttf Trung Qud'c cd gia rd do chi phi n h a n cdng lao ddng ciia Trung Qudc thudc nhdm thap nha't the gidi.
Qua trinh toan c i u hda va p h a n cdng lao ddng d mtfc cao da lam cho viec thue gia cdng hoae n h a p cac ban thanh pham ttf mpt nha cung cap khdc se re hdn viec ttf d i u ttf s i n xuat ra b a n thanh pham do, cung vdi nd la viee tai cd ca'u lai eae m i t xich ciia cac n h a cung tfng da trd thanh xu htfdng chinh trong may nam g i n day. Nhd stf hd trd cua cdng nghe thdng tin va stf tien bd ve cd sd h a t i n g ma Trung Qudc da trd t h a n h nha cung cap nguyen lieu, ban t h i n h pham chu yeu cua the gidi.
Trung Qudc da t a n dung dtfdc tfu the ciia ngtfdi di sau trong cac ldi the canh tranh. Do cd cac ehinh sach di t i t , ddn d i u dung htfdng, Trung Qudc (va An Dp) da tap trung dao tao lao ddng va p h a t trien cdng nghe trong mdt so linh viic va s i n p h a m nha't dinh nhtf cac s i n p h a m ve b i n d i n , dien ttf va edng nghe thdng tin de trd t h a n h n h i eung cap cua the gidi ve s i n pham nay.
NGHIlN CPU-TRAP BPI
c) Stf tham gia cua cdc nhd thdu Trung Qudc trong cdc cdng trinh ldn d Viet Nam
Tinh den thang 11/2010. c i ntfdc cd 118 gdi t h i u EPC ^, trong do 58 gdi t h i u EPC (chie'm 49%) ap dung hinh thtfc chi dinh t h i u , 33 gdi t h i u EPC (chie'm 28%) da'u t h i u rdng rai qudc te, 27 gdi t h i u EPC (chie'm 23%) dau t h i u rdng rai trong ntfdc.
Trong 58 gdi t h i u EPC ap dung hinh thtfc chi dinh t h i u , nha thau Viet Nam dtfdc chi dinh 48 gdi (chlem 83%), nha t h i u Trung Qude dtfdc chi dinh 8 gdi (chie'm 14%), 2 gdi cdn lai la nha t h i u thudc G7 va nha t h i u lien danh.
Trong 33 gdi t h i u dau t h i u rpng rai qudc te, nha t h i u Trung Qud'c tning 20 gdi (chie'm 61%); nha t h i u Viet Nam chi tning 4 gdi (chiem 12%), cdn lai 9 gdi thupc ve nha t h i u G7 va nha t h i u lien danh (ehiem 27%). Cae linh vtfc nha t h i u Trung Qud'c tning t h i u EPC chu yeu la nhiet dien, khal thac md, s i n xuat xl mang, xtf Iy bun trong nganh than, s i n xuat gang, thep, xay dtfng nha may alumin, bauxite nhdm... Mdt sd dtf a n Idn ma DN Trung Qudc lam tdng t h i u EPC la nhiet dien Quing Ninh 1 va 2 (mdi gdi EPC 400 trieu USD), nhiet dien Vinh Tan 2 (1,3 ty USD), nhiet dien Hii Phdng 1 (500 trieu USD), nhiet dien Kien Ltfdng (2 ty USD), td hdp bauxite nhdm Lam Ddng (466 trieu USD), alummin Nhan Cd - Dak Ndng (499,2 trieu USD), nha may phan dam Ca Mau (575 trieu USD) «
Viee cac DN Trung Qudc trung nhidu tdng t h i u EPC d Viet Nam da gdp p h i n lam kim ngach NK ttf Trung Qudc len cao d i n tdi t h a m hut thtfdng mai gia tang.
(Cdn nda)
THOONG MflSd 34/2011 I 1 1
