T4P CHi KHOA HOC DHQT H 6 N G BANG
TANG TRU^OTNG VA PHAT TRIEN KINH TE BEN VUNG
dVIETNAlVI
SUSTAINABLELY ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM
Btfl HUY K H 6 I <•'
NGUYEN THI NGAN <**>
TOIW TAT
Tdng trudng kinh ti Id dieu kien cdn ddi vdi phdt triin kinh ti, song nd khdng phdi Id diiu ki4n du cho viec phdt triin kinh ti. Neu mpt ddt nude cd tdc dp tdng trudng kinh ti qud nhanh se ldm cho nin kinh tephdt triin khdng ben vimg. Vi the, di cd duac mpt nen kinh tephdt triin bin vimg phdi kit hpp nhieu yeu td nhu mdi trudng, cd co cdu kinh ti mdt cdch hop li vd ddc biet la phdi quan tdm den viec cdi thien ddi sdng cho ngudi ddn.
ABSTRACT
Economic growth is a necessary condition for economic development but it is not fill condition for economic development. If a nation has the economic growth speed very quickly, it is not sustainable economic development. So having a sustainable economy must connect many factors such as environment, suitable economic structure and specially taking care of living improvement.
l . D a t v i n d e
Tren nhieu diln dan va vdn kipn cua cpng ddng qudc te cung nhu tiong cae chinh sach, chuong trinh hdnh dpng cua cac qudc gia, van de phat trien bin vimg dang ndi len nhu mpt tiong nhung mdi quan tam hang ddu cua todn nhdn loai. 6 Viet Nam, phdt triln bin viing la mpt tiong nhiing npi dung eo ban de thyc hipn doi mdi md hinh tang trudng kinh tl, ddng thdi ciing la muc tieu quan trpng hang ddu ma nen kinh te hudng tdi. Tren binh dien toan the gidi hay tai mdi khu vyc vd d mdi qude gia xudt hipn biet bao vdn dl hire xiic lai mang tinh phd bien. Kinh te cang tang trudng thi tinh tiang khan hilm cdc lo^ nguyen lieu, nang lupng do sy can kiet cdc ngudn tdi nguyen khdng tdi t^o dupe ngay cdng tang them, mdi trudng thien nhien cang bi hiiy hoai, cdn bdng sinh thdi bi phd vd, ddn tdi sy trd thu cua thien nhien gdy ra nhung thien tai vd cung thdm khdc. Dd la sy tang trudng kinh te khdng cung nhip vdi tien bd va phat trien xa hpi, ddi khi ngupe ehilu vdi phdt trien xa hpi. Cy the la, cd tang trudng kinh tl nhung khdng cd tiin bp vd cdng bang xa hpi; tang trudng kinh te theo hudng cdng nghiep hda, do thi hda, din tdi lam meo md ndng thdn; tdng trudng kinh te nhung thu nh^p eiia ngudi lao dpng khdng tang; tang trudng kinh tl nhung van hda, dao diic bi suy ddi; tang tiudng kinh tl lai lam dan each hon sy phan hda giau ngheo trong xa hdi, ddn tdi sy bdt dn trong xa hpi va dieu nay da trd thanh mdt trong nhiing vdn de ndng bdng d nhilu qudc gia. Vay nen, qua trinh phdt trien cd sy dieu tiet hai hda giiia tang trudng kinh tl vdi bao dam binh dn xa hdi va bdo ve mdi trudng dang tid thanh yeu cdu biic thilt ddi vdi todn the gidi
(•) Th?c si, GiAng vien - Tntemg DH C6ng nghi?p TP. HCM s 6 0 3 - THANG 9 / 9 n 7 R " B i l
( . _ - _ _ - "••- ^ " " ^ — - ' " ' _ _ n g h i ? p T P . H C M ^ ^
R^TRUdNG DAI Hpc QUOC TE HONG BANG 2. Thirc trang tang trirong va phat trien tai Vift Nam
2.1. Nin kinh li nuic ta da tang tnr&ng vMtoc to tirffng doi on dinh Theo s6 lieu do T6ng Cue Th6ng ke cong b6, nam 2014 la nam dau tien trong kS hoach 5 nam (2011-2015) k6 tir 2011 d6n nay, tang truong kinh tS khong chi ve dich ma con vugt kd hoach. So voi k6 hoach chi tieu tang truong kinh tS 5,8% ma Qudc hoi dua ra thi nam 2014 dat 5,98% qua la con so dang mirng cho nen kinh li Vi|t Nam. Miic tang trucmg nam 2014 cao hon miic tang trucmg 5,25% cua nam 2012 va 5,42% cua nam 2013 cho thdy diu hieu tich cue cua n8n kinh tl truoc bdi canh chmh tri co niigu bdt 6n khi Trung Quoc ha dat gian khoan trai phep HD 981 trong vimg dac quyen kinh te lanh th6 Viet Nam. Miic tang truong co ddu hi?u hai phyc nay da giiip cho nen kinh
\i vi mo CO dugc su 6n dinh - muc tieu ma Vif t Nam theo duoi trong nhieu nam nay, dac biet la sau khi l^m phat
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BUD a,™., j ^ ^ j ^ ^^^ 20% trong nam 2008 - nam dju tien Viet Nam chiu tac dpng cua khung hoang kinh ik toan cdu. Con so tang truong 5,98% dugc T6ng Cue Thong ke chinh thiic cong
>-b. Ni« SI. Ml. ^ ^^ khien gioi chuyen gia
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Hmh 2.1: Minh hoa toe dp tang truong kinh te cua Vi?t Nam qua cac nam ke tir nam 2004. Ket qu^ cho thay tang trudng kinh te cua Vi^t Nam nam 2007 co miic tang cao nhat va nam 2009 co miic tang thap nhat. Nam 2007 la nam dau tien Viet Nam chinh thiic tra thanh thanh vien WTO nen c6 nhieu co hpi ciing nhu dieu kien thuan loi cho nen kinh te, cac chi tieu ke hoach phat trien kinh te deu duac hoan thanh va hoan thanh vugt mdc ke hoach. Trong nam 2007, Viet Nam dugc xep vao hang cac quoc gia co toe dp tang truong kinh te cao trong khu vuc. Truoc tinh hinh khung hoang tai chinh the gioi no ra nam 2008, nen kinh te Viet Nam ciing khong nam ngo^i su anh huong do. Ci giai doan nay, miic tang GDP luon thap hon 7% va ngay cang di xuong, din nam 2012 chi con 5,25%, qua cac nam 2013 thi ta co su tang ddn len 5,42% qua nam 2014 ta lai tang len thanh 5,98% qua do cho thay nuac ta dang ddn co su tang truong kinh tl tro lai [ http://www.cpv.Qrg.vn").
2.2. Tang trudng kinh te da difa tren sw chuyin dich cff cdu kinh ti - xa hffi theo hu&ng cong nghiep hoa. hifn dgi hoa. tung bu&c hgi nhap vao su phan cong cua nen kinh te khu vuc va thigi&i.
T6ng san phdm trong nuoc (GDP) nam 2014 uac tmh tang 5,98%o so voi nam 2013, trong do quy I tang 5,06%; quy n tang 5,34%; quy 111 tang 6,07%; quy IV tang 6,96%.
Miic tang truong nam nay cao hon miic tang 5,25%) cua nam 2012 va mire tang 5,42%
cua nam 2013 cho thdy ddu hi$u tich cue cua nin kmh tl. Trong miic tang 5,98% cua toan nen kinh tl, khu vuc nong, lam nghiep va thuy san tang 3,49%i, cao hon mire 2,64%
cua nam 2013, dong gop 0,61 diem phdn tram vao miic tang chung; khu v^c cong nghiep va xay djmg tang 7,14%, cao hon nhieu miic tang 5,43%i cua nam mioc, ding gop 2,75 diem phan tram; khu vuc dich vu tang 5,96%>, dong gop 2,62 dilm phdn tram.
Trong khu vuc nong, lam nghiep va thuy san, nganh lam nghigj co miic tang cao nhdt voi 6,85%, nhung do chilm ty trpng thdp nen chi dong gop 0,05 dilm phdn tram v4o
BTid
03-THANG 9/2015T4P CHi KHOA HOC DHQT HdNG BANG
muc tang chung; ngdnh ndng nghiep mac dii tang t h ^ d miic 2,60% nhung quy md tiong khu vyc Idn nhdt (khodng 74%) nen ddng gdp 0,35 diem phdn tram; ngdnh thuy sdn tang 6,53%, ddng gdp 0,21 dilm phdn fram.
Trong khu vyc cdng nghigp va xdy dyng, ngdnh cdng nghiep tang 7,15% so vdi nam trude, Irong dd cdng nghiep che bien, che tao cd chuyen bien khd tich cue vdi miic tang cao la 8,45%, cao ban nhilu so vdi miic tang cua mdt sd nam tiudc (nam 2012 tang 5,80%;
nam 2013 tang 7,44%), ddng gdp dang kl vao tdc dp tang cua khu vyc II va gdp phdn quan trpng vdo miic tang trudng chung. Trong nganh che bien, che tao, cdc ngdnh sdn xudt dd udng; dpt; sdn xudt tiang phyc; sdn xuat da vd cdc sdn phdm cd lien quan; san xudt gidy; san xuat san phdm tii kim loai due san (trir may mdc thilt hi); san pham dien tu may tinh; san xudt xe ed dpng co la nhiing ngdnh cd ddng gdp Idn vao tang trudng vdi chi sd sdn xudt tdng khd cao d miic tien 10%. Nganh khai khodng tang 2,40%, ed ddng gdp eua ddu thd vd khi ddt ty nhien. Ngdnh xay dyng da cd ddu bieu phuc hdi vdi muc tang 7,07%, tang cao so vdi miic 5,87% cua nam 2013, chu yeu do ddng gdp cua khu vyc doanh nghiep ed vdn ddu tu nude ngodi vdi gia tri sdn xuat xdy dyng khu vyc nay tang manh d miic 58%.
Trong khu vyc dich vy, ddng gdp ciia mpt sd ngdnh cd ty trpng Idn vdo miic tang trudng chung nhu sau: Bdn budn vd ban le chiem ty trpng Idn nhdt, dat miic tang 6,62% so vdi nam 2013, ddng gdp 0,91 diem phdn tram vao muc tang trudng chung; boat dpng tai chmh, ngdn hdng vd bao hilm tang 5,88%; ho^t dpng kinh doanh bat dpng san dupe cdi thipn ban vdi muc tang 2,85%, cao hon muc tang 2,17% cua nam truoc vdi nhieu tin hieu tdt tiong ho tip thi trudng bdt ddng sdn ndi chung va phdn khue nhd chung cu gia trung binh vd gid re ndi rieng, tiong dd gia tri tang them eua khdu hao nha d dan cu tang 2,93%.
Co cdu nin kinh tl nam nay tilp tue theo hudng tich eye. Khu vuc ndng, lam nghiep va thiiy sdn chilm ty trpng 18,12%; khu vuc cdng nghiep vd xdy dyng chiem 38,50%;
khu vyc dich vu chilm 43,38% (co cau tuong ung cua nam 2013 Id: 18,38%; 38,31%;
43,31%).
Xet ve gdc dp su dung GDP nam 2014, tieu dung cudi cung tang 6,20% so vdi nam 2013, ddng gdp 4,72 diSm phan tram vdo muc tdng chung (tieu dung cudi cung cua ddn eu tang 6,12%, cao ban miic tdng 5,18% ciia nam trude); tieh liiy tdi sdn tdng 8,90%), ddng gdp 2,90 diem phdn trdm.
Bang 2.1: Tdc dp tdng ldng sdn pham trong nucfc cac nam 2012, 2013 vd 2014 Tdc do tang so voi Dong gop ciia cac >
• nam tmoc (%) I " * " ^ ' i " t ^ / f ® i
; tnrong nam 2014 Nam CDiem phan tram) Nam 2012 Nam 2013 1 ? ^
I 2014
I \ '. 1 T^ng so 5,25 5.42 5,98 5,98
, Nong, lam nghi?p va thuy san 2,68 i 2,64 3,49 ,0,61
Cong nghiep va xay dijmg 5,75 5,43 7,14 2,75 ' Dichvv 5,90 6,57 5,96 2,62
Ngnon: Nien gidm thong ke 2015
Co cau lao ddng cdng chuyin dich theo hudng tich cue.
Lye lupng lao dpng tu 15 tudi tid len eua cdnudc udc tinh den thdi dilm 01/01/2015 la 54,48 tripu ngudi, tang 782 nghin ngudi so vdi ciing thdi diem nam trude, tiong dd
SO 03 - THANG 9/2015 ^ 9
I TRUCING DAI Hpc QUOC TE HONG BANG
lao dong nam chilm 51,3%; lao dpng nii chilm 48,7%. Luc lugng lao dpng trong do mdi lao dpng udc tinh din thai dilm tren la 47,75 trieu nguoi, tang 333,7 nghin nguoi so voi ciing thai dilm nam 2014, trong do nam chilm 53,7%; nii chiem 46,3%.
Lao dpng tit 15 m6i trcr len dang lam viec trong cac nganh kinh tl nam 2014 uoc tinh 53,0 ttieu nguoi, tang l,56%o so voi nam 2013. Lao dpng tii 15 tool tra len dang lam viec nam 2014 ciia khu vuc nong, lam nghi$p va thily san chiem 46,6% tong so (Nam 2012 la 47,4%; nam 2013 la 46,8%); khu v\ic cong nghiep va xay d\fng chilm 21,4% (Nam 2012 va 2013 cung a miic 21,2%); khu v\rc dich vu chilm 32,0% (Nam 2012 la 31,4%; nam 2013 la 32%).
S6 nguoi CO viec lam trong quy I nam nay udc tinh la 52526,2 nghin ngucri, tang 616,1 nghin nguoi so vcri ciing ky nam truac; quy II la 52838,4 nghin nguoi, tang 436,1 nghin nguoi; quy 111 la 53258,4 nghin nguoi, tang 520,7 nghm nguoi; quy TV la 53471,1 nghin nguoi, tang 678 nghin nguoi.
Ty 1? thilu viec lam ciia lao dpng trong dp tuoi lao dpng nam 2014 la 2,45%, thap hon miic 2,74% cua nam 2012 va 2,75% cua nam 2013, trong do khu v\rc thanh thi la 1,18% (Nam 2012 la 1,56%; nam 2013 la 1,48%); khu vuc nong thdn la 3,01% (Nam 2012 la 3,27%; nam 2013 la 3,31%).
Ty le thdt nghiep ciia lao dpng trong dp tuoi nam 2014 la 2,08%, trong d6 khu vuc thanh thi ta 3,43%, thdp hon miic 3,59% ciia nam truac; khu vuc nong thon la 1,47%, thdp hon miic 1,54% ciia nam 2013.
Ty 1? thdt nghiep ciia thanh nien (tir 15 - 24 tuoi) nam 2014 la 6,3%, cao hon miic 6,17% ciia nam 2013, trong do khu vuc thanh thi la 11,49%, cao hon miic 11,12% ciia nam truoc; khu vuc nong thon la 4,63%, xap xi ty le nam 2013. Ty le that nghiep ciia nguoi Ion tir 25 tuoi trd len nam 2014 la 1,12%, thap hon mire 1,21% cua nam 2013, trong dd khu vuc thanh thi la 2,07%, thap hon miic 2,29% cua nam trude; khu vuc ndng thdn la 0,7%, thdp hon miic 0,72% cua nam 2013.
Udc tinh ty le lao dpng phi chinh thirc cua khu vuc phi hp ndng nghiep nam 2014 la 56,1%, giam 1 diem phan tram so vdi nam 2013. Nhin chung ty le lao dpng phi chinh thirc cua khu vuc phi hp nong nghiep giam so vdi nam 2013 d cac quy trong nam do ty trpng lao dpng trong khu vyc doanh nghiep cd dau hieu tang len.
Cff cdu thanh phdn kinh te tiep tj^c chuyen dich theo hu&ng phdt huy tiem nang cm cdc thdnh phdn kinh te vd dan xen nhieu hinh thirc sffhiru.
Xet ve tdc dp tang trudng, kinh te nha nude dang duac td chiic l^i, ddi mdi khdi doanh nghiep Nha nude dang ddn giam tdc trong vong 3 nam trd lai day. Dilm dang chu y, tang trudng cua khdi doanh nghiep Nha nude va Tu nhan trong nude cd ddu hifu ty 1$ thuan vdi tang trudng toan BXH VNR500 tir nam cdng bd 2010 din nay, nguyen nhan do s6 ddng cac doanh nghiep VNR500 thupe 2 khdi doanh nghiep nay Khoi doanh nghiep FDl lai it phu thupe vao biln dpng toan BXH, mpt phdn do s6 lupng doanh iighiep FDI trong BXH VNR500 khdng nhilu (chi chilm trung btah khoang 15% sd doanh nghiep toan bang), mpt phdn do hieu qua hoat dpng cua khdi doanh nghipp nay dang tdt hon so vdi cac khdi khac, ddng gop quan trpng cho phdt trien kinh te - xa hdi, nhdt la giai quyit vi?c lam va cai thien ddi sdng nhSn dan. Theo tinh toan cua Vietaam Report, theo dii lieu BXH VNR500 nam 2014, ROA trung binh cua khdi doanh nghiep FDl dat 13%, cao hon hjn mure 6,2% cua doanh nghipp Nha nude va 5,7% ciia doanh nghiep tu nhan trong nude.
E E I sd 03-THANG 9/2015
TAP CHi KHOA HQC DHQT HONG BANG
2.3. Tang trudng vd phdt trien kink te da dua den nang cao trinh dp vd chdt lugrng song cua cdc tdng Idp ddn cu.
Vipc danh gia trinh dp va chat lupng dan sinh ciia cac qudc gia, lanh thd ed thi dupe can eii vdo nhilu tieu chi khac nhau, song thdng thudng ed tinh phd bien ngay nay ngudi ta vdn dung tieu ehi ehi sd phat trien con ngudi (HDI) Id mpt thudc do tdng hpp ve nhieu khia canh trinh dp vd chat lupng ddn sinh.
Gid tri HDI ciia \^et Nam nam 2013 la 0,638 , cao hon muc trung binh la 0,614 so vdi nhdm nude cd phdt trien con ngudi trung binh va dudi 0,703 so vdi cdc nude Ddng A va Thai Binh Duong - dupe xep d nhdm nude phat triln con ngudi trung binh.
Nam 2014 thi xip d vi tri 121/187 qudc gia va vung lanh thd. Khoang thdi gian tu nam 1980-2014, HDI eua Viet Nam tang tir 0,463 len 0,638 (tang 37,8%), ty le tang trung binh hang nam la khoang 0,98%. Cling tiong khoang thdi gian nay, tudi thp trung bmh tang 8,3 nam, sd nam di hpc tang 1,2 nam va sd nam bat bupe tdi trudng tang 3,3 nam, thu nhap tidn ddu ngudi tang 364,6%.
Theo Ting cue Thdng ke, l\i6i thp binh quSn cua ngudi Vi^t Nam nam 2014 da tang len 72,8 nam, dirng thu 58/177 nuro'c.
2.4. Tdng trudng vd phdt trien kinh ti di doi vdi gidi quyit vifc Idm, g&n liin v&i tien bp vd cong bang xa hgu
Ddi sdng nhan ddn da dupe cdi thien ro ret, the hien d thu nhap GDP bmh quan ddu ngudi nude ta da khdng ngung tang len, nhung nam 2005 Id 700USD, dd tdng len 1517 USD vdo ndm 2011, tang 1749 USD nam 2012, din nam 2013 da Id 1960USD, vd din nam nay 2014 dat tdi 2028 USD.
3. Kit lu^n
B*iig2.2: GDP BlrAquOn ail ngudi qua cdc ndm cua mi Nam (USDMgimJ 3.1. Tdttg tTUdng kinh tS
van chua vitng chac:
Tang tiudng kinh te dat binh quan 5,589%/ndm trong 5 nam 2010-2014 Id mdt thdnh tuu Idn, nhung tdng trudng vdn chu yen d\ra vdo cac yeu td ve vdn, lao dpng, khai thac tdi nguyen thien nhien... Ben canh dd, cdng nghiep che bien ndng sdn va che tao tu lieu sdn xudt edn kem, chu yeu vdn la lap rap, gia cong. Cae yeu td dem lai gid tn gia tang cao nhu khoa hpc, cdng nghe ehua duac khai thac vd phat buy.
Quy md ddu tu ngdy cdng tang, the hien d ty ie dau tu tien GDP ngay cdng cao, nhung hipu qud ddu tu, trinh dp eua nin kinh tl va ehdt lupng tang trudng kinh tl vdn cdn d muc thap, ehua tuong xung vdi ddu tu. Khd ndng canh tianh cua doanh nghipp, cua nen kinh tl edn thdp, lao ddng cd tay nghe cao van edn chiem ty tipng nhd tiong li;e lupng lao dpng.
Nhip dp tang trudng kinh te cdn dudi muc khd nang phat trien ciia ddt nudc,chdt lupng phat triln cdn thdp, nang l\rc canh tianh ciia nen kinh te cdn yiu. Tang trudng
SO 0 3 - T H A N G 9/2015 I
B TRUdNG DAI HOC QUOC TE HONG BANG
kinh t l nhimg nam qua chua phat huy duoc hit cac nhan to theo chieu sau. Nang lire canh tranh, nang sudt, chdt lupng, hieu qua ciia nlii kinh te cdn thap. Chua ket hpp that tdt giua tang trudng kinh t l vdi tiin bp va cdng bdng xa hpi, bao v§ va cham lo dung mire cho sv phat triln cua con ngudi, bao ve va cai thien moi trudng sinh tiiai.
Ddng gdp vao tang trudng chu y i u van la y i u to v6n va lao ddng, y i u td v l tiin bp khoa hoc va cdng nghe my cd tang len nhung v i n chiem ty trpng nhd.
Kit cdu ha tdng kinh t l , xa hpi van cdn y i u kem, chua dap ling dupe yeu can phat trien va nang cao kha nang canh tranh ciia n i n kinh t l . Mdt sd cdng trinh xay d p g Idn, quan trpng quoc gia khdng hoan thanh theo k l hoach. Nang luc san xuat mpt sd nganh, san phdm quan ttpng, thilt yiu tang cham.
Mdi trudng cdn d nhilm nang va hi tan pha nghiem trpng, chua cd cac giai phap hiiu hi?u trong giai quyet van de moi trudng.
3.2. Chuyin dich cff cdu kinh te chua dong deu vd chua phdt huy the tn^nh trong timg ngdnh, titng vung, titng sdn pham. Cff cau dfch vu chua cd Sff chuyen dfch ddng ki, dich vu chdt lugng cao phdt trien cham.
Cdng nghiep hda, hi$n d^i hoa ndng nghipp va ndng thdn trien khai cdn cham va thilu tinh b i n vihig. Ty trpng dich vu trong GDP cdn thap va chua cd chuyen biln ro ret. Cac viing kinh t l trpng dilm phat trien chua tuong xiing vdi tiem nang, chua phat huy dupe vai trd ddu keo kinh te viing; chinh sach dau tu va hd trp cac viing kem phat triln chua dap ling dupe yeu cau. Su phat trien cua cac thanh phan kinh t l chua ddng diu. Ty le lao ddng qua dao tao con thap so vdi yeu can cong nghiep hoa, hien dai hoa va chuyen dich co can kinh te.
3.3. Tdng tru&ng kinh te nhanh ldm o nhiem moi trudmg
Song song vdi qua trinh cdng nghiep hda, hi?n dai hda thi da lam gay 6 nhiem mdi trudng. Chung ta chua tap trung vao viec cai thien de ra cac bien phap bao v? mdi trudng sinh thai.
T A I L I E U T H A M K H A O [1]. Nguyin Dinh Hpi (2008), Kinh tephdt trien, Nxb Tai chinh.
[2]. Nguyin Minh Tudn va cpng su (2010), Kinh tivimo, Nxb DHQG TP.HCM.
[3]. Nguyen Van Luan va cpng su (2008), Kinh te vimo, Nxb DHQG TPHCM.
[4]. Nguyen Van Ngpc (2007), Kinh te vimo, Nxb DH Kinh t l quoc dan.
[5]. Phan Thiic Huan (2006), Kinh tephdt trien, Nxb Thdng ke.
Cac website:
[1]. littp://www.cpv.orE.vn tniy cap ngay 09/07/7015 [2]. http://www.gso.com.vn tniy cap ngay 05/07/7015
I sd 03-THANG 9/2015
