KINH TE
TAC DQNG CUA DAI DICH COVID-19 DOI VCfl NEN KINH TE VA PHAN ifNG CHINH SACH
CUA CHINH PHU VIET NAM
• PHAN DANG NGOC YEN VAN
T 6 M TAT;
Trong c6ng cuSc chfi'ng dich benh se lo dien ro mffc dp tffdng thich giffa bieu hien be ngoai va thffc chat ben trong cua cdc hinh ihffc id chffc nha nffdc va he thong chinh tri tren lhe gidi.
Chinh Siich 5 dau nhan van va ffu viel hdn thi 6 do se co dffdc sff on dmh chinh tri xa hoi thffc chS't vii b^n vffng hdn. Dieu nay dffdc phdn anh d mffc do tin nhiem va lin tirdng ma ngffdi dSn danh cho Nha nffdc ta trong b6'i canh djch b6nh va khung hoang. Bai vie't phan tich cac tac dong cua dai dich Covid-19 dd'i vdi nen kinh i6' va phan ffng chinh sach cua Chinh phu Viet Nam.
TuT khda: Covid-19, dai dich Covid-19, lac dong, nen kinhte', chinh sdch, Chinh phu.
1. Dgi djch Covid-19 tac dOng ngliigni trong dd'n toan c^u
Theo Bdo cao danh gia sd bo cua To chffc Lao dfing qu6'c 16' (ILO): "Covid-19 va the gidi viec Idm; Tde dpng va giai phdp", cupc khung hoang kinh le vd lao d6ng do dich Covid-19 gay ra co the liim tang ihem 25 trieu ngffdi thS't nghiep tren loan cau. so vdi so' Iffpng ngu"di tha't nghiep san co la IS8 trieu (rong nam 2019. Hang tri$u ngffdi Iao dpng se phdi rdi vao tinh Irang thS'i nghiep. thid'u viec lam, giam gid lam.
Dai dich gay ra bdi virus Corona Covid-19 hien dang la va'n de dirpc quan tam hang dau vdi ta't ca mpi ngffdi, khd cd the doan dffdc dieu gi se xay ra diffdng lai. Tai Trung Quo'c ke tff khi lan dau cong bo ve dai dich Covid-19 de'n nay dich benh da lay lan Iren loan cau. Khdng the phu nhan mpt sff that, Covid-19 da lam cho nhieu nganh nhieu ITnh vffc tren the'gidi trd nen "dieu dffng". Covid-19 la cii soc ba'i ngd, than td'c va huy diet nha't trong lich sff can dai. (Bang 1)
lien Iffdng, vd rdt xud'ng dffdi chua'n ngheo. Nhdm lao ddng Iff Idm d cdc nffdc dang phdt trien, vd'n thffdng la lam dem giup lam nhe bdt d6 xung dot ciia nhffng idc dong do nhffng Ihay ddi dpi ngot mang iai. thi lan nay se khdng cdn tac dung \i nhffng han che di chuyen dd'i vdi con ngffdi va hang hoa.
Bang 1. Covid-19 d top 10 n i n kinh te'ldn nhdt (cap ntigt 4/2020)
216265 K1.TS9 2.384 80.641 33.718 56.989 2.032 110.574 7.011
5.132 3 318 57 962 2.921 4.D32
•iH 13115 250
the Tune of Covid-19 ve) htlp://w\vw.n-orldoineters.info/cc>roncivini.
So 8 - T h a n g 4/2020 101
Den nay. djch benh \an chffa dffdc kiem soat vd con lay lan nhanh. dien bie'n phffc lap tai chau Au. .M\ %a nhieu nffdc chau A: Lie dpng tieu cu'c dd'i vdi moi hoat ddng kinh te - xa hdi toan cdu
\d Viet Nam: trong do, hau he't cac nganh, ITnh vffc kinh te'deu chiu tde ddng lieu cffe. (Bieu do I)
Hien tai, dai dich Covid - 19 tde dpng Idi kinh le va thffdng mai the gidi vdi 4 ddc diem khac bie't cd ban nhff sau: Tlui nhd't, Idled cdc nen kinh te'deu dong thdi bl lac dpng bat ngd theo each nhff nhau:
Thd hai. ca phia cung ldn ben cdu dong thdi bi suy giam chff khdng bi mat can dd'i dang ke so vdi trffdc day; Thdba, kinh te va thffdng mai sa sut khong phai do nguyen nhan trong he Ihd'ng hay mang linh cP ca'u ma do hieu ffng tff nhffng bien phdp hdnh chinh can thie't de dd'i phd dai djch nhu"phong tda, gidn cdch hay each ly xa hpi. phong tda bien gidi qudc gia...; Thd IU, mffc dp toan cau hda. iff do hda thi/dng mai vd hpi nhap quo'c le hien tai cao hdn tru'dc day rat nhieu. Tang irffdng kinh le the gidi hien dang gidm td'c va tac dpng . n^u.-™
manh me de'n tdng cdu kinh le the gidi. t^u*
tde ddng kinhle'cua cu soc > te'vdidffdng *"'"
cong nhiem dich khi co va khong ngan i ^ J i ! ^ chdn dich benh. (Bieu do 2] "*
Chinh sdch ngdn chdn ha ihd'p dffdng cong lay nhiem nhirng ldm sau them du'dng cong suy thodi. (Bicu dd 3)
2. Tac dOng cua dai dich dd'i vdi nen
kinh te'Vi^t Nam '^*
Vi'ii ba cu sdc song hanh. thd nhdt Id cu sdc vc >le'khi sd'ca nhiem \ a tff vong tdng. sd' Iffdng cdch ly ldn. trffdng hpc phdi ddng cffa. ddng cffa bien gidi va han che di lai...; tlni hai, la cu sd'c \ c kinh te - — - bao gom ben cdu lieu dung, dau i\i \a bencungdff trff nguyen lieu, chudi cung ffng. lao dpng bi cdch h , ihdba. la cu sdc ve k\ vpng khi ngffdi ddn \d doanh nghiep bi quan
\ c trien vong tffdng lai. tham chi cd the dan tdi dd vil dd\ chuyen.
Moi so dac dicm bat ldi \d thudn ldi quan trpng Clia ncM kmh le \'iei Nam. theo kich ban cd s6 cua Cili Research (cdng bd ngay 7/4/2020). kinh le'the gull sc su\ thoai. tang trffdng -l.V/c nam 2020 (so
Bieu dd 1: Cipp nhgt ffnh hinh djch Covid-19 tr§n thg gidi (cap nhgt 22/4/2020}
' ' * " • • .
^V>V^'-^'^^''>VV>^:>^>^^^^^^^^
Ngudn - hiips://plo. vn/cpioc~te/cliuyen-gia/luyen-bo-dai-dich- covidl9-tac-dong-lhe-iiao-deii-kiiih-ie-896034.html Bieu dd 2: Tinh hieu qua cija cdc chinh sdch kinh td cua Chinh phu
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Nguon: Lucre dich IU biii viet "COVID -19: linplicatiotts for business" Iren McKinsey vdi miJc tang trirflng 2,6% nam 2019, suy thoai lidn mifc -1,7% nam 2009), Trong do, tang tnrdng GDP Clia Trung Quoc chi khoang 2,4% (so vdi miJc tSng 6.1% nam 2019), cua MC -2,6% (,so vdi miJc lang 2,3% nam 2019), cua Nhat Ban -1,9% (so vdi mfc tang 0,7% nam 2019) con idiu vi/c dong lien cliung cliau Au tham chi tang trudng -8,4', (,o vdi mlJi:
lang irudng 1,2» nam 2019),
KINH TE
Sl^u <SS 3: Cac tac <3^ng cua cac bien phap ngin ch^n, khdng ngdn chiSn
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Nguein: Mitigating the Covid Economic Crisis: Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes (hitps://voxeu.org)
Bl4u d6 4: Tdng tri/dng GDP giam, Igm phat tdng (c^p nh^t thang 4/2020)
Tang tru'dng GDP giim, lgm phal tang
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Ting Innhig GDPIII
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• Ql-2020 Nguon: Tdng cue Thong ke Dd'i vdi lam phdt, trong bd'i canh tdng cau. gia dau va ndng Iffdng giam manh. nen du nhieu nffdc kich thich kinh te', gia thffc pham va dich vu y te Idng, nhffng iam phal loan cau van d mi'fc khd tha'p.
khoang 2,29c (so vdi mffc 2.5% nam 2019). Kich ban ldng trffdng nay se cdn dffdc cap nhal, cdn thay
doi; mffc dd nhff the ndo cdn luy thupc vdo 3 \eu td': kha nang kiem sodt dich benh cua mdi qudc gia. hieu qua cua cde chinh sach/gdi hd trp. va hieu qua hdp tac qudc te (trong phdng chd'ng dai dich).
Viet Nam la nen kinh le'md va nhd, phy thupc nhieu vdo nhu cau tff ben ngoai, ngay cang phu thude vao khu vffc FDl. Cdng nghiep hd trp ye'u, khd khan khi chudi cung ffng dinh tre gidn doan. Nong nghiep khd khan do han man vd thdi tiet effc doan. Cd che ddn truyen chinh sach vT mo cham.
Tuy nhien. trong 3 nam gan day nen kinh le' nffdc ta tang trffdng tffdng do'i dn dinh. ly le np cong giam, lam phdi thd'p, cdc can ddi vT md tffdng dd'i ldnh manh. Ben canh dd, chinh sdch ldi khda tham hut ngan sach khong qua cao, nang liTc dieu hanh td't lien te cdn dff dia giam lai sua'l. ly le liet kiem tffdng dd'i cao so vdi cac nffdc co ihu nhap Iffdng dffdng.
Kim ngach xua't-nhap khd'u hodc san lu'dng/doanh ihu linh de'n ca ye'u td'dau vao va dau ra (trpng sd'chi6'm 50%) so vdi ciing ky nam 2019; gia co phie'u ciia nhffng nhdm ngdnh nay niem ye'i Iren san chffng khoan Viet Nam so vdi dau nam (the hien danh gia, nhan dinh cila nha dau Iff. mang linh lhi trffdng cao, trpng so' chie'm 50%); va tham khao s6' lieu ve so' doanh nghiep phai tam ngffng kmh doanh trong quy 1/2020.
Vdi kel qua linh loan, neu mffc dp giam diTdi 5% dffdc coi la tac dpng nhd, giam tff 5-10% dffdc coi la tde ddng vffa phai va giam tren 10% Id tac ddng Idn.
(Bieu dd 4. 5. 6. 7, 8, 9)
3. Cac phan ffng chi'nh sach cua Chi'nh phu Viet Nam
Vdi ITnh vffc ndng nghiep va phu trd: nghien cffu li/a chon cdc nganh san xua'l. che' bie'n ndng-lhuy san. trong dd tap trung danh gid mdt so' mat hdng chiu anh hffdng ve hoat dpng thffdng mai (mffc dp tang giam cua kim ngach xua't nhap khau. phan dnh kho khan ca dau vao vd dau ra), Ben canh dd. danh gia mot so ITnh vffc la dau \aocho sdn xua't ndng nghiep (nhff hda
5.56% I
I
So 8 - T h a n g 4/2020 103
Bleu ao 5: Son xua't cong nghiep va ban le tieu dung (Cdp nht^t ngdy 22/4/2020)
mg nghiep ^ 3 bin \6 ticu diing deu giam
116% '^"^
III III
o b \ ( . \ i i p r i Q1-Z017 l y i - z o i s B i j i - : ! ' ].\\./„
Bin le H H & U \ T U - • UI-2U2U
n • Tong cue Thdng ke
Bleu dd 6: Kim nggch xud't nhdp khdu (Cdp nh^t ngdy 22/4/2020)
Co kim ng^ch xuat va nhpp kh.iu de
i
5.3%m-2017 Boi-iois
CHf Tiwng k BiSu do 7: Ngudn vd'n FDI dang ky va thUc hien (CdP nhgt ngay 22/4/2020)
Ca von l-DI dSng ky va thuc hi^n deu giam manh ' * ' " " 86,3%
I
5n TT)I ddng ky Ql-2017 BQI-IOIS
: Tcfng CUC Tiwng ke
(do thieu hut ngudn iiiiu- tffTrung Qudc. Hdn tju.>' vd EU); hodc dau ra ul>' - tieu diing trong mrdc ^ .i n
:eu. nhd't U i.iiSan.My ,1111 nhuc^u c'. nhd't Id tir
chdl ndng nghiep - gdm phan bdn. thud'c bao ve Ihffc \dn la cdc linh \ffc chiu tac dong gidn tiep khi ndng nghiep chiu anh hffdng.
\ 0 i ITnh \ffc cdng nghiep vd xay dffng: nghien cffu Iffa chon cdc nganh chiu dnh hffdng ve dau \ao
5 thi trffdng vffa neul, hodc chju anh hffdng do nhffng bien ddng manh ve gin hang hda tren thi trffdng. Trong A6, nghien cffu lu'a chon 6 ngdnh chinh: d§i may, da giay; san xud't gidy; san xua't sdn pham Iff go; san \ua't. kinh doanh th6p;
khai khoang vd xay dffng. Rieng ITnh vifc dien thoai, dien tff. dien may va linh ki^n;
ty le ndi dia hda rat tha'p (khoang 5-10%), ty trpng ddng gdp trong nffdc trong xu5'l khau cung rat tha'p (khoang 8%) vd iTnh hlnh san xua't. xua't khau trong quy 1/2020 van Idng kha. nen khong dffa vao md hlnh ddnh gia (mffc do tac dpng cua dich Covid-19 Id Iffdng dd'i nhd).
Vdi ITnh vffc dich vu; nghien cffu lffa chpn cac ITnh vffc chiu anh hffdng do bie'n ddng ve tdng cau vd xdo trdn ho£il dpng do dich benh vd cdc bi6n phdp phdng chd'ng djch cua Viet Nam cung nhu'cac nffdc. Theo dd, nghien cffu liTa chpn 7 ngdnh chinh: du lich; van tai, kho bai; ban le; tai chinh - ngan hang - hh hiem: kinh doanh BDS; dich vu y I^; va giao due, dao tao.
Chudi cung ffng va chudi lao gid trj se Ihay ddi Iheo hffdng vffa dffdc da dang hdn, tffc la dd ddng va nhanh chdng ciS the thay the dffpc cho nhau hdn, lai viira tao Ihdnh mang Iffdi ket nd'i nhieu chu8i vdi nhau de "bpe dd" ldn nhau.
Kinh te'va thu'dng mai Ihe gidi .sec6n thay ddi bdi sff hlnh ihanh cua mdt nhu cdu dam bao an ninh mdi, nhff dam bSo an ninh Iffdng thffc hay dam bao an ninh nang Iffpng, Id cdc ddi idc dam bao lu6n ur chu ve cung ffng nhffng san ph^ra, thiet bl hay vat lieu can thie't de doi phd khung hoang. dac biet ve thud'c men, Irang ihie't bi y le va tang cffdng khS ndng cd lhe nhanh chdng chuyen ddi s3r xua't binh thirdng sang san xua't nhffng vat dung hay ihiei bi can thiet cho viec ffng phd khung hoang.
Cd cau kinh te' vd thu'dng mai qudc i;ia vd qudc ^ VI the se thay ddi. Uu lien chinh sdch kinh te'va thirdng mai qudc gia vi the cung ih.i-. i,';j.
104 So 8 - Thang 4/2020
KINHTE
Bliu aS 8: nn dyng VND (C0p nhdt ngdy 22/4/2020) Tin dyng giam, VND giim gii
Ting irudng tin dwng (24/31 Ty gia VND s Ql-3017 •Ql-2018 BQl-aOig •Q1-2(I20
•1.95% ' V. USD
Nguon: Tdng cue Thdng ke Bi4u dd 9: Doanh nghiep mdi, ngt/ng hogt dgng (C^p nh^t ngdy 22/4/2020)
Sti DN miii giim, s£ DN ngung hoat dOng tang
11.4%
II
S^ DN m6i thiinh Ijp So ON tjm dirng hojt dijng Ql-2017 • Ql-2018 »Ql-2019 • Ql-2020
Nguon: Tong cue Thong ke Vicl Nam chiu lac ddng nghidm trpng cua dai djch va suy thodi kinh te' loan cau vdi mffc dd va kha ndng dieu chinh cua cac ngdnh khac nhau nhff khdch san, lffu irii, nghl dffdng. nha hang dich vu dn ud'ng, du Uch Iff hdnh, van tai logistics, dich vu giai tri. bdn le hang tieu diing. giao due ddo tao, ngdn hdng tin dung, ba't dpng san,
Ndu khdng cd sff can tlii^p hidu qua, hieu Iffc va kip thdi cua chinh phu ilii mdl sd ngdnh kinh le va nhieu doanh nghiep cd the pha san, keo theo nhieu he luy nghiem trpng ve tang irffdng vd viec lam.
Tff dd muc tieu chi'nh sdch Id ha tha'p dffdng cong nhiem dich. bao ve sffc khde doanh nghiep. cung cd' niem tin xa hdi, bdi dap nen tang phue hdi, han ehe' nhffng di hai urdng lai dira tren cdc nguyen tde khdng can thiep dai tra ma xac lap ffu lien, can thiep cd chpn lpc.
Han che true ldi chi'nh sdch d mffc cha'p nhan dffdc va chinh sach ca'p cffu cd thdi hieu rd rang de lam phdng dffdng cong suy thodi.
Tlni nhd'l. ldng eu'dng cdng nhanh cang td't, cdng nhieu cang td't dpi ngu y le, cd sd vat cha't nhff bd xel nghidm, may trd thd. phdng each ly dp lire dm, thie't bi vd dung eu y te', lang ird ca'p rui ro cho cdc nhan life nhan Iffc nganh Y td trong tuyen dau chd'ng djch. Mien gidm, hodn, gian thue eho cdc doanh nghiep chju tac dpng nghiem trpng do dieh benh. Tdng chi lieu cho cac chinh sdch an sinh, ird giup xa hpi va cac dich vu xa hdi cd ban de dam bao ngffdi ngheo dffdc lie'p cdn day du, can phai cung cap dich vu xet nhiem va dieu tri mien phi hodc theo gid trp ca'p.
Thd hen, phai dam bao Ihanh khoan cho he thd'ng ngan hdng thffdng mai, qua dd ho trd thanh khoan cho doanh nghiep chiu tac ddng, Cho phep cd cd'u lai cdc khoan nd cua doanh nghiep va vay tieu diJng, dieu chinh ty gia phu hpp, giam chi phi cho cdc doanh nghiep nhff giam mat bdng lai sua't.
Thd ba, thuc da'y gidi ngan dau tff cdng, dau tff nghien cffu, che tao san xua't vac-xin cua Viet Nam. Vffa dau tff kich thich kinhle', vffa bdi dffdng nang Iffc khi hdi phue nhff cdng nghe thdng tin va iruyen thdng (5G), nang liTdng tai lao, nen lang giao due Irffc luye'n. kham benh tff xa, thanh lodn khdns dung lien mat. thffdng mai dien iff •
TAI LIPU THAM KHAO:
1. Ryan (2020). Nhu'ng thay ddi vd tac ddng cua dai dich corona covid-19 u-en loan Viet Nam,
<linps://iiuidevietnam.iravel/vi/vii-us-coroiia-covid-19-o-viet-iian}/>. xem ilidiig 3/2020.
1. Thien An (2020). Tuyen bd dai dich covid-19, <hlips.//plo.vn/quoc-te/chiiyeii-gia/tuyen-bo-dai-d'tch-covid}9- tac-dong-ilie-nao-den-kinh-te-896034.html>. \em 121312020.
3. TS. Can Vdn Lire va Nhom tde gia Vien Ddo tao va Nghien cffu BIDV - CafeBiz (2020). Dai dich covid-19 tac dpng manh den nganh kinh te ndo cda Vtet Nam <littp://\vwwjrungtaniwio.vn/chiiyen-de/]5243-dai-dich'Cov'id- l9-lac-dang-nninli-den-nganh-kiiih-te-nao-eiia-viei-ncini>. xem ngdy 13/4/2020.
So 8 - T h a n g 4/2020 105
4 Di.h Dung (2020). The gu'i sau dich covid-i9, <hnps://baoquocte.vn/iltc-gtoi-sau-ihch-coMd-1^' 1.^-l-ltinb-le- va-lhiiong-titai-se-tbe-nao-lLt<'^t6.html>. \cmngay 16/04/2020,
."i- The W orld Bank (2020), Dong .\ \ a Thdi Binh Dirdng Ihtii covid-19, <https:/Avtvtv.worldbank.iiig/vi/cottntni/
vietnain/bi icf/ctnt-n\ta-pacific-in-the-liine-of-covid-19>. xem ngay ,^ 1/03/2020,
6. Hao-N'am (2()2()). Kinh te Viel .Nam se vifdt qua cdn bao kinhle loSn cau \i covid-19, <htlp://vinttnet.vnAittli- le/ktnli-te-viet-nam-se-vuol-qtia-con-bao-kinli-ic-toan-cau-vt-covid-19-727S52.htnil>. xem [ig."i> 2,3/4/2020.
7, Tap doan D3u khi quoc gia Viet Nam (2020). Covid-19 nhiJng tde dong he luy \;i giai phdp ijng phd,
<http:/Avw\v pvn.vn/Pages/Tap-doati/Covtd-19-.\hiing-tac-dong-lte-luy-va-giat-pliap-ung-plio-iKy-2)/Sb66d76e- b9JI5-l56l-SfiO9-aa204c3fe2c7>. \i:mt\g;>yO>mi2020.
s Vu Thanh Ttr Anh (2020). Covid-19 tan pha dac biet nghiem trong kinh t£' the gidi, khdng dai dich c^n dai niio so s;inh di/dc, <https://vietnaniJinance.vn/covid-l9-tan-plia-dac-biet-nghient-Iroitg-klnh-Ie-tlie-gioi-khong-diii- diclt-caii-dat-tiao-tii-sanli-duoc-20im50422423599S.htttt>.>tt:mngiy 1710312020.
9. Vu Thanh Tir Anh (20201 Nhirng biii todn ddnh doi ttong cupc chie'n chong dich covid-19,
<https://fiilhright.edii vit/ vi/iieit-si-vu-liianlt-tu-anb-nhung-bai-ttian-danh-doi-lrimg-ciiiic-chien-cltong-dieli- mvidJ>. xem ngiy 06/04/2020.
Ngay nhjn bai: 23/4/2020
N'ljiiy phan bi^n danh gia va su'a ch0a: 24/4/2020 Ngay cha'p nhSn diing bai; 27/4/2020 Thong tin uic gill:
PHAN BANC NGOC YEN VAN
Khoa Quiin trj - Kinh It?'quo'c te'.TrtTtrng Dai hoc Lac Hong
IMPACTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON VIETNAM S ECONOMY AND THE RESPONSES
OF THE GOVERNMENT OF VIETNAM
• PHAN DANG NGOC YEN VAN Faculty of Interncjtional Business Administration
Loc Hong University ABSTRACT:
The nghl against epidemics will show clearly the compatibility level between the appearance and the intrinsic nature of the forms of state organizations and the political systems in the world, A state which has humanitarian-onenled policies with advantages will create more substainable and stable society and economy, Vietnam's stable society and economy reflect the imst and ctjntidence level ol Vietnamese people towards the Government of Vietnam amid the country s tight against the Covid-19 pandemic and its economic negative impacts This paper .,n.,l,/es the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Viemam's economy and the resp. es of the
Govemmenl ot N'letnam. ' Key nords: Covid-19, Covid-19 pandemic, impact, economy, policy, government
