PHAN TICH & Dfl BAO KINH TE
XUAT KHAU NONG SAN SAU HOI NHAP WTO GIAI DOAN 2007- 2011 VA NAM 2012
N G U Y E N MINH H U ^
Tfur)g tdm thong tin Cong nghiQp va JtiUdng mqi - BQ Cdng ThUdng
After nearly 6 years since being WTO member, Vietnam's export value In general and agrtculhjfol product export value In particular has been as high as 2.5 Hmei ot the annual average level of Ihe pre-WTO period. Although the growth rate ol agrtcullure, forestry and fishery product export during the period 2007-2011 was rather Impressive, it was unstable. The main reason Is that the conse- quences of tt>e economic downturn artd ffnanclal crisis led to i/ioip reduction In the prices of many Vietnam's export goods.
As a result, the total export value ol agriculture, forestry and fish- ery products In 2012 Is forecast to increase just 4.5% compared with 2011, much lower Htan Ihe annual average growth rate ol ttte peri- od 2007-2011 (19.5% per year).
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a t h i n h vien thfl 150 cfla Ttf chflc ThUdng m?i Thtf gidi (V\/TO) - Vitft Nam da tham gia v i o s i n chdi binh dtlng vdi 149 nUdc k h i c . Tuy nhi&n, dieu d i n g lo ng^i khi gia n h ^ p WTO l i Vitft N a m p h i i dtfi m$t vdi nhflng btft ldi cilia nfldc di sau, p h i i c$nh tranh vdi c i c nfldc cd t i e m n i n g xuat khau Idn, d$e bitft l i v l h i n g ndng s i n efla e i c nfldc lan c^n nhU T h i i Lan, Trung Qutfc; dtfng thdi Vitft Nam cung p h i i c?nh tranh vdi n h i l u nUdc p h i t tritfn v i dang p h i t tritfn k h i c cd c i c chung lo^i h i n g hda gitfng ho9c tfldng tU nhU eua nUdc ta ho^c tUdng t f l . Sau g<ln 6 n i m htfi n h | p WTO, xu^t kh^u hang hda ndi chung, h i n g ndng s i n ndi rieng nfldc ta v5n dgt ktft qua ngoan myc.1 . Xuat khiu ndng san sau htfi nh$p cao hdn n h i l u so vdi trUdc htfi nhap
Kim nggeh xui't khtfu h i n g ndng s i n ndi ehung (bao gtfm c i ndng, l a m , thOy s i n -NLTS) giai dogn sau htfi n h | p W T O (giai dogn 2007-2011) dgt binh q u i n hdn 15,2 t^ U S D / n i m , chitfm 2 2 , 6 % tong k i m ngaeh xui't khau h i n g hda, ga'p hon 2,5 l4n so vdi b i n h q u i n hang n i m cfla giai dogn trfldc khi htfi n h ^ p (giai dogn 2001-2006).
Rieng n i m 2 0 1 1 , kim ngaeh xutft k h i u dgt g i n 21,1 t^ USD so vdi
n i m 2 0 0 1 , tflc t i n g g i n 4,8 I l n sau 10 n i m . Ttfc dtf t i n g tn/dng kim nggeh xufft khffu chung cfla h i n g NLTS giai dogn 2007-2011 dat 1 9 , 5 % / n a m , trong khi giai doan 2001 -2006 c h l tang 13,8%/nam, ttfc dp t i n g tnidng b l n h q u i n h i n g n i m sau htfi n h ^ p da eao hdn 5,7 diem p h i n t r i m so vdi trfldc khi gia n h i p W T O .
KIm nggeh xua't khau h i n g hda l i s i n p h ^ m n g i n h s i n xutft ndng nghitfp binh quan giai doan 2007- 2011 dgt hdn 10 ty U S D / n i m , chiem 6 6 , 1 % k i m nggeh xua't khau chung cfla h i n g NLTS, gtfp 2,6 I l n so vdi giai dogn 2 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 6 ; ttfc dg t i n g trudng b i n h q u i n h i n g n i m giai dogn 2 0 0 7 - 2 0 1 1 dgt 24,3%/nam, cao gtfp g i n 2 I l n so vdi giai doan trUdc htfi n h ^ p V ^ O (giai dogn 2001- 2006 c h l dgt 13,9%/nam).
Kim nggeh xui't k h i u h i n g l i m sin giai dogn 2007-2011 dgt 536 trieu USD/nflm, chiem 5,3% kim nggeh xutft k h i u chung h i n g NLTS, gap 2,4 I l n so vdi giai dogn 2001-2006; ttfc dtf t i n g tnJdng h i n g n i m gia! doan 2007-2011 dgt 31,1 % / n a m , trong khi giai dogn 2001 -2006 c h l dgt
1 2 , 4 % / n a m , nghTa l i ttfc dtf tang tnJdng b i n h quan h i n g n i m sau giai dogn htfi n h i p da gtfp 2,5 I l n so vdi tafdc htfi n h i p .
THflNG TIN S. DU BAD KINH i t - XA HQI Stf 84 (12.2012)
Kim ngaeh xua't khau hang thOy s i n gi.ii dogn 2007-2011 dai 4,3 ty U S D / n i m , chitfm 3 1 , 1 % kim ngaeh xu.Vt khau chung hang NLTS, ga'p 2,6 lan so vdi giai dogn 2001-2006; td'c dp t.lng liUdng binh (|u3n h i n g n i m giai doan 2007-2011 dgt 1 3 , 2 % / n i m , tha'p hdn khdng d i n g ktf so vdi giai doan 2001-200G dat 14,8%/n5m.
Bang 1 : Kim ngaeh xui't khau hang NLTS giai doan 2007-2011
Dc/n vi: Tri$u USD
TO'ng kim ngdch xuat khau Kim ng<ich hang NLTS
- Hang nong san - H.ing lam san - Hang thuy s.in
2007 48.561 11.204 7.033 408 3.763
2000 62.685 14.219 9.240 469 4.510
2009 57.096 13.071 8.353 463 4.255
2010 72 207 16.461 10.640 804 5.017
2011 96.906 21.112 15.000
6.112
Binh quSn 67.491 15.213 10.053 536 4.731
Bieu dd 1 : Kim ngaeh xuat khau hang NLTS theo nhdm giai doan 2007-2011
20000
15000 10000 5000 -
u -
^ f. •J
2007
1 1
1, Ll
2008
t^ 1
r •J
2009
• 1
¥ 1
1, •J
2010
•
1^ 1
1 I ^
Tl • 1
2011• Chung
• Nong san m Lam san
• Thuy iSn
Bieu do 2: Cd cau kim ngaeh xua't kha'u hang NLTS binh qu3n theo nhdm giai doan 2007-2011
I NonR san I L.im sail
" TliUy san
Stf 84 (12.2012) THONG TIN & DU BAO KINH Tfe - XA Hgi 13
PHAN TiCH & Dfl BAO KINH T J
2. Tang triraing xuS't k h i u hJng ndng, l a m , t h i i y sSn sau h j i nh$p chlia on d i n h
M ? c du tefc do tang tmdng k i m ngsch xuJt kh^u h i n g NLTS chung cS giai do9n 2007-2011 la kha ngoan mgc, nhKng chi/a 6n d i n h , CM IhS:
cac nam 2007, 2008, 2010 va 2011 tang kha cao (ICI 24-28%/nam), nhung nam 2009 lai gi3m 8,1 %, t£l dd lam cho d6 thi tang trudng xuJft khSu NLTS giai doan 2007-2011 da di theo hinh chO " V " . Nguydn nhan cOa nd la do h j u quJ cda cuOc khung hoSng tai chlnh va suy thoai kinh 16' the' gidi da lam gia x u i t Mu nddc ta giSm rift m ^ n h , trong dd mOt sfi mat hang gia xuSft khSu blnh quSn 9 thang dSu nam 2009 gidm l i ; 1/3 de'n g,^n mfit nlla so vdi cCing kji nam tnJdc, da kiSo kim ngaeh x u A khSu chung c5 nam 2009 giSm manh so vdi nam trddc.
Bleu do 3: Tfic d? t a n g tn/dng xuSft k h i u h i n g NLTS giai doan 2007-2011
- C h u n g - N 6 n g s S n - L a m sSn - T h u y s e l n
3. Cac mat hang nong, l a m , t h u y san xuat khau chu Idc sau h$i nh$p deu t a n g r i t cao so vdi trddc h$i nh$p
Ditng thiy nh^t la mSt hiing Ihuy san, day la mat hang NLTS xuat k h i u chu lUc cd k i m ng^ch Idn nha't, blnh quAn giai doan 2007-2011 dat 4,7 t^ USD/nam, c h i e m 3 1 , 1 % k i m ng^ch x u i t khau chung cac mat hang NLTS, toe do t a n g trudng d j t 18,4%/nam; nam 2011 dat 6,1 tj' USD, so vdi nam 2 0 0 1 , tdc sau 10 nam gap 3,4 lan; blnh quSn k i m
ngsch x u i t k h i u hang nam giai d o j n 2007-2011 so vdi giai doan trudc hdi nhSp (2001-2006) g i p gin 2 Iln.
Thiy hai lii m^t hAng g^o, blnh quSn giai doan 2007-2011 dat 5,4 t r i ^ u t i n / n a m , tUdng dng vdi 2,8 if USD/nam, chifim 18,4% kim ngaeh x u l l k h i u chung cac mat hang NLTS, tfic dd tang trudng 2 7 , 5 % / n a m ; nam 2011 x u i t g i n 7 trl^u t i n , vdi kim ngaeh 3,7 t^
tJSD, so vdi nam 2 0 0 1 , tdc sau 10 nam g i p 5,9 ]&n; k i m ngaeh xuit k h i u binh quan h i n g nam giai doan 2007-2011 g i p 2,9 I l n giai doan 2 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 6 .
That ba /a ca ph&, blnh quan giai doan 2007-2011 x u i t hon 1,1 triOu t I n / n a m , vdi kim ngaeh dat 2,1 tj' USD/nam, chifim 13,6% kim ngaeh xuat k h i u chung hang NLTS, tfic dfi tang tnJdng d«t 21,1 %/nam;
nam 2011 x u i t hon 1,2 tri^u t i n vdi tri gia 2,8 ty USD, so vdi nam 2001, tdc sau 10 nam g i p 7 lan; kim ngaeh binh quan hang nam giai doan 2007-2011 so vdi giai doan 2001-2006 g i p 3,3 I l n .
14 THONB TIN & D i ; B t o KINH lt-XAHOi 81(84(12.2012)
Thii til li caosu, b l n h quan giai doan 2007-2011 xuat 718 nghin la'n/nam, vdi kim ngaeh 2 t^ USD/nam, chiem 12,9% k i m ngaeh xuat k h i u chung hang NLTS, tang blnh quan 2 6 % / n a m ; khoi lUglng xua't k h i u nam 2011 dat 779 nghin t i n , vdi k i m ngaeh 3,2 ty USD, so vdi nam 2 0 0 1 , tdc sau 10 n5m gap 5,9 I j n ; kim ngaeh blnh quan hang nam giai doan 2007-2011 so vdi giai doan 2001-006 g i p 3,4 I l n .
Thl} nim la hat diSu nhin, b i n h quSn giai doan 2007-2011 khfii lutjng xuat 162 nghin ta'n/nam, vdi k i m ngaeh gan 1 \f U S D / n a m , c h i e m 6,6% kim ngaeh xua't k h i u ehung hang NLTS, td'c dp tang trUdng dat 13,2%/nam; khfii lUqlng xuS't nam 2011 dat 190 nghin t i n , vdi k i m ngaeh 1,5 t^ USD, so vdi nam 2001 ga'p 9,7 l a n ; k i m ngaeh b i n h quSn hang nam giai doan 2007-2011 so vdi giai doan 2001-2006 gap 2,9 lan.
Thlt sau li tau hoa qui, blnh quSn giai doan 200-2011 dat 447 Irieu USD/nam, chie'm 2,9% kim ngaeh xua't khau chung hang NLTS, tfic dO tang trudng 14,7%/nam; kim ngaeh nam 2011 dat 460 trieu USD, so vdi nam 2001 g i p 2,2 lan; binh quSn kim ngaeh x u i t k h i u hang nam giai doan 2007-2011 so vdi giai doan 2 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 6 tnrdc hdi nhap ga'p 1,8 I l n .
M,1I hing Ihii bay li hd tl^u, binh quan giai doan 2 0 0 7 - 2 0 1 1 x u i t dat 108 nghin tan/nSm, vdi kim ngaeh 417 tri$u USD/nam, chifim 2,9% kim ngaeh x u i t k h i u chung hang NLTS, toe do tang trUdng 14,7%/nam; nam 2011 x u i t 117 nghin t i n , vdi kim ngaeh 732 tri$u USD, so vdi nam 2 0 0 1 , tdc sau 10 nam gap 8 lan; binh quan k i m ngaeh x u i t k h i u hang nam giai doan 2007-2011 g i p 3,2 I l n so vdi giai doan 2 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 6 .
Thd tam la che, b i n h qu3n giai doan 2 0 0 7 - 2 0 1 1 xuat dat 120 nghin ta'n/nam, vdi k i m ngaeh 173 trieu USD/nam, c h i e m 1 , 1 % k i m ngaeh x u i t khau chung hang NLTS, toe do tang trudng 1 3 , 2 % / n a m ; khfii l u g i n g x u l t nam 2011 dat 137 nghin ta'n, vdi kim ngaeh 204 tri^u USD, so vdi nam 2001 ga'p 2,6 l a n ; b i n h quan kim ngaeh xua't k h i u hang nam giai doan 2007-2011 g i p gan 2 lan giai doan 2001-2006 trudc hfii nhap.
Binh quan giai doan 2 0 0 7 - 2 0 1 1 , 8 mat hang tren dat 13,6 t^ USD/nam, chiem 89,4% kim ngaeh xua't k h i u chung hang NLTS, td'c do tang trUdng 19,3%/nam; kim ngaeh nam 2011 la 18,6 t^ USD, so vdi nam 2 0 0 1 , tde sau 10 nam ga'p 5,3 I l n ; binh q u i n kim ngaeh hang nam cda giai doan 2007-2011 so vdi giai doan trudc hpi nhap 2001-2006 g i p 2,5 lan.
Bang 2: Khfii luong x u i t khau mpt sfi mat hang NLTS chu luc
Ddn vj: nghin t^n
1. Hat deu i . ca phe
3. Cao su 4. Gao ,• 5. Hat diSu nhan
6. Che
2007 115 981 704 4.642 128 105
2008 83 1.232 716 4.580 155 116
2009 90 1.061 659 4.745 161 105
2010 134 1.183 731 5.969 176 135
2011 117 1.218 779 6.893 190 137
BQnam
108 1.135 718 5 . 3 6 6 162 120
Stf 84 (12.2012) THQNG TIN & DU BAD KINH TE - XA HQI 15
PHAN TICH & DJ BAO KINH TJ
BSng 3; Kim ngijch mSt k h i u m^t sfi m } t hJng NLTS chu luc
Tri gia XKNS 1. Rau, ho.i, qu.i 2. Hat tiOu 3. Ca phf
4. ( \ i n su 5. Cao 6. Hal dieu nhan 7. Che 8. Hang thuy s.in
Cdng
2007 11.204
J ^,9 272 1.917 . (94 1.490
645 134 3.763 9.S74
2000 14.219
306 311 .'.114 1.604 2.896 915 147 4.510 12.804
2009 13.069
407 348 1,731 1.227 2.666 8 5 0 180 4.255 11.664
2010 16.461
439 4 2 J 1.851 2.386 3.250 1.137 201 5.017 14.703
Ddn
2011 21.112
4 6 0 7J2 2.752 1.23';
3.657 1.473 204 6.112 18.625
vi: Tri^u USD
B Q n J m 15.213 447 417 2.073 1.969 2.792 1.004 173 4.731 13.607 Nhu vay, cd the Ihay, toe dp tang IrUdng binh Cjij.in hang nam giai doan 2007-2011 (sau hOi nhap WTO) cua eac mat hang NLTS xua't khau chu lUe deu dat kha cao, trong d d , cao nh.il la hat lieu tang 33,3%/nam, th,ip nha't la che va thuy s i n tang 13,2%/nam. Cac mat hang gao, cao su, hat didu tang Id tren 25%/nam de'n 27,5%/nam. Mot so mat hang tang chUa on djnh nhU gao, ca phe, eao su, hat d i e u , thuy s i n Irong nam 2009 da giam kha manh, tuy nhien ke't qua nay la hoan loan do h^u qua khung hoAng tai chfnh va suy thoai kinh te loan cau lac dpng. Cdn kim ngaeh xual k h i u binh quan chung hang n a m c l giai doan s<ui hpi nhap VVTO (2007-2011) deu tang g i p lU g i n 2-3 lan sp vdi giai doan 2001-2006 IrWdc hpi nh,5p WTO.
4. X u i t khau hang ndng, ISm, thuy san nam 2012
Ket qua xual khau 11 Ihang nam 2012 cho I h l y , h i u het kho'i lupng c i c mat hang NLTS chu li/c d^u liep luc lang vdi Id'c dp cao (Id trfin 10-40%), tuy nhien do lac dfing cua thi IrUdng t h f i gidi lam cho g i i xua't khau nhieu mat hang giSm manh, nhU: gao binh quan 11 thSng g i i m 10,5%, c a o s u g i i m 3 1 , 4 % , hai d i ^ u g i i m 19,8%, ea phe giJm 2,7%... so vdi eung ky nam 2 0 1 1 . Do d d , k i m ngaeh x u l l k h i u n h i l u m j t hang tang thap, tham chi cd mat hang giSm n h u c a o su, mac du khfii lupng v i n t3ng den 2 9 % , nhung gia x u l l giSm manh, nen kim ngaeh c h l bang 8 8 , 5 % so cung ky nam 2 0 1 1 ; tUOng IU, mat hang gao, khoi lUOng x u l l Ude ca nam cd the dat Id 7,6-7,7 tripu t i n , la mde cao nha't Id IrUdc den nay va U n g gan 1 0 % so vdi eung ky, nhung do gia xual giam, nen kim ngaeh dU bao eung ch? x i p x? vdi nam 2 0 1 1 , dat k h o i n g 3,4 t^ USD; hat dieu khfii lupng x u l l 11 Ihang tang 2 9 % , nhUng do gia xua't g i i m g i n 2 0 % , nen k i m ngaeh d u b l o eh! tang k h o i n g 1,5%... Td dd k i m ngaeh x u l l k h i u ehung cua hang NLTS nam 2012 d u bao sd dat k h o i n g 22 t j USD va chl lang k h o i n g 4 , 5 % so vdi nam 2 0 1 1 , toe dfi tang trudng nay tha'p hon nhifiu I j n so vdi toe dd tang binh quan hang nam trong giai doan 2007-2011 la 19,S%/nam. D
TAI I I F I I T H A M KHAO:
1. Tong cue Thfing ke (2011), NiSn giim Thd'ng ki Vi$t Nam nim 2011.
I. Trang Ihdng lin difin Id Tong cgc Thfing ke - GSO.
THONG m & DU aAO KINH l { - XS HO Sf( S4 (12.2012)
