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with ethnic tensions as some parts of the North became hostile to the news of the visit of the President. This was exemplified in the 2015 attacks on President Goodluck Jonathan in the North during his pre-election campaign. The opposition APC presented Buhari who emerged as the winner, and this was also an indication that despite rotational presidency being a PDP baby, it has also been embraced by the APC.
The 2019 election was less ethnic inclined because it was mainly a contest between two Northern candidates, Buhari and Atiku. Hence, the elites from the North and South could hardly exploit ethnic and religious keys to open the doors of agitation and violence. The activities in 2015 and 2019 reveal that rotating the presidency is not favoured by Southern elites alone, but the North has also come into the game. The intricacies of rotating the presidency in the Fourth Republic make it germane to examine whether the phenomenon is an integration agent or otherwise.
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PINWP 1, PINWOL, PIR 1 and PISSP agreed with PIR 2 that rotational presidency brought a sense of belonging. Specifically, PISSP believes that ‘it is a show of inclusiveness, is a show of oneness, it still does not guarantee stability, it does not guarantee national integration’ (PISSP, January 2019). PIR 1 posited that ‘if it is well implemented, it may graduate from creating belonging to fostering national integration’. PISWP 2 gave its efficacy a time frame and submitted that:
The reality is that the adoption of rotational presidency in Nigeria will cease at a particular point in time. May be in 20 years, but the reality is until every region has been pacified due to the mishap of ‘60s to the ‘70s, the civil war. Until every region has been pacified, North East; North West……now the North West is there. Atiku is from the North East; we have had the South South, we have had the South West.
Trust me, the North Central is going to come around and say it is our turn and until it has fully gone round, then may be a leader can rise and unite the entire nation. Then we do not care where the guy comes from (PISWP 2, December 2018).
This echoes Abacha’s proposition of a 30-year rotational presidency plan (Azelama and Oarhe, 2010: 507).
PINWP 2 is comfortable with the way zoning runs now and is of view that it is beneficial to the country as it brings stability. He clarified thus:
Yes, I will absolutely agree with that because you cannot concentrate power in only one people. We need to stabilise the country by rotating the presidency between the North and South. So, it is left for the three geo-political zones in the South to present a candidate from any of the political parties. The issue is it is good even though it is not written; it is just an acceptable norm, so this is the issue, and it works for the country (PINWP 2, January 2019).
Rotational presidency either as a tool of fostering belonging or a prospective tool of integration may help reduce the sense of deprivation. A sense of belonging may only breed a feeling of being among, but the deeper relevance of rotational presidency encompasses how it has entrenched stability in the Nigerian federal system.
Rotational presidency is an offshoot of consociationalism. Hence, associating rotational presidency with stability is in synchronisation with the position that consociationalism is designed to solve the enigma of instability in deeply divided democratic countries (Deschouwer, 2006: 895). PINEP supported zoning and purported that ‘if there are justice and equity in the implementation of rotational presidency, it will aid federal stability’
(PINEP, January 2019). PIR 3 gave a similar opinion but went further to posit that its proper
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implementation is cogent and that it has afforded a minority to lead the country, and that minorities can still be accommodated to some extent, if not for the presidency but for other key positions. He expatiated thus:
I think it has the potentials to ensure federal stability in Nigeria. It is a well thought out policy. It is not as if Nigeria lacks policies, it is the effective implementation of policies that is problematic. The idea of rotational presidency is a wonderful idea and is a recognition of the likelihood of marginalisation of some sections. If you do not have rotational presidency, democracy being a game of numbers, you can be rest assured that some regions will not be able to have a shot at the presidency forever. If not for rotational presidency, how will South South get to power? Which political muscle will they muster together? One of the states in the South South has only eight local governments. So, if you go by number, by electoral strength, some states will be permanently shut out, and that was the thinking. You see, we have leaders who have really done a lot of thinking, and that is why it is a consociation arrangement.
Let us try to rotate, and when you do that, you have a formula. Formula is that beyond rotational presidency; many other things are rotated with it. You have the first few important positions in the country. Presidency, Vice Presidency, Secretary to the Government of the Federation, President of the Senate, his deputy, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, among others. All these key positions are simultaneously rotated (PIR 3, January 2019).
Individuals from the major groups of Hausa/Fulani, Igbo and Yoruba form the bulk of the political elites in Nigeria (Kifordu, 2011: 437). Therefore, the pendulum swings in favour of the majority groups. As a way out, Azaigba and Yio (2014: 395) recommend that rotational presidency should not only be zonal but also between majority and minority groups in each zone. This resonates Osaghae’s (1998: 4) opinion that the backbone of minority politics is the unrelenting efforts of minority elites and movements to recompense the imbalance and ensure the improvement of minority opportunities in the power equation and resource allocation. This statement echoes Arend Lijphart’s view that consociational democracy is structured to turn a democratic state with an uneven political culture into a stable democracy (Lijphart, 2008: 31). A very good example is that if not for zoning, Goodluck Jonathan would not have become the Vice President and eventually the President because he is from Ijaw ethnic group. The emergence of Goodluck Jonathan as the President cemented the peace that emanated from amnesty extended to Niger Delta militants by former president Yar’Adua.
This was because the militants felt uncomfortable engaging in violence when one of their elites was President. Having identified sense of belonging and stability as justifications for rotational presidency, there are certain indicators that rotating the presidency has its hitches.
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