ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

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MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

• Asia: Bursa saham Asia jatuh pada hari Kamis dan dolar perkasa setelah pasar melihat faktor yang dapat mempercepat Federal Reserve AS menaikkan suku bunga pada Juni mendatang, sementara emas tersungkur. Indeks MSCI Asia-pasifik diluar Jepang turun 1%, menyusul prospek kenaikan suku bunga AS yang kedua dalam 6 bulan menambah kekhawatiran di pasar berkembang yang tengah bergulat menghadapi pelambatan ekonomi Cina. Bursa Korea Selatan dan Australia pimpin pelemahan bursa regional setelah masing-masing catat penurunan 0,6% dan 0,8%. Nikkei awalnya menguat berkat melemahnya yen yang turun ke level terendah 3 pekan terhadap dolar setelah FOMC minutes, namun kemudian pangkas keuntungan dan hanya ditutup menguat 0,2%.

• Eropa: Bursa Eropa turun pada hari Kamis menyusul turunnya harga minyak dan logam tekan saham komoditas dan perhatian meningkat bahwa The Fed akan segera menaikkan suku bunga. Indeks FTSEurofirst 300 turun 1,2%. Saham Inggris jatuh pada hari Kamis setelah hilangnya sebuah penerbangan EgyptAir dan penurunan pemesanan musim panas untuk Thomas Cook (maskapai penerbangan charter yang berbasis di Manchester) membebani sektor wisata, sementara saham pertambangan juga melemah. Indeks FTSE 100 terkoreksi 112,45 poin atau 1,8% ke 6053,35.

• AS & Global Markets: Bursa saham global turun pada hari Kamis, sementara dolar menguat, menekan harga minyak dan komoditas, setelah investor melihat kemungkinan The Fed menaikkan suku bunganya dalam waktu dekat ini.

Pernyataan Presiden Fed New York William Dudley semalam yang mengatakan ekonomi dapat cukup kuat untuk menjamin kenaikan suku bunga di bulan Juni atau Juli kian memperkuat ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga Fed pasca rilis FOMC minutes di hari Rabu sebelumnya.

Laporan CME FedWatch menunjukkan peluang sebesar 32% bagi Fed menaikkan suku bunga di bulan Juni, naik dari 15%

ekspektasinya di hari Selasa sebelumnya. Sementara mayoritas pelaku pasar saat ini memprediksi kenaikan di bulan Juli.

Bursa global merosot 0,9%, catat penurunan dalam 3 sesi berturut-turut.

Harga emas turun 0,4% dan sentuh level terendah 3 pekan.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC

RECORD HIGH 38915.87 (29/Dec/89)

295.51 (03/May/11)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07)

18351.36 (19/May/2015)

2134.72 (20/May/2015)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH 20952.71

(24/Jun/2015)

275.11 (24/Apr/2015)

28588.52 (27/Apr/2015)

18351.36 (19/May/2015)

2134.72 (20/May/2015)

5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH 18951.12

(04/Jan/16)

249.56 (20/Apr/16)

21794.84 (04/Jan/16)

18167.63 (20/Apr/16)

2111.05 (20/Apr/16)

3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 2016 LOW 14865.77

(12/Feb/16)

222.92 (20/Jan/16)

18278.80 (12/Feb/16)

15450.56 (20/Jan/16)

1810.10 (11/Feb/16)

2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW 16592.57

(16/Jan/2015)

217.52 (24/Aug/2015)

20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)

15370.33 (24/Aug/2015)

1867.01 (24/Aug/2015)

2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW 85.25 (06/Jul/50) 31.96

(16/Jun/98) 58.61 (31/Aug/67) 388.20

(17/Jan/55)

132.93 (23/Nov./82)

325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

Closing Prices – 19 Mei 2016

CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE

.DJI 17435.40 91.22 / 0.52% .N225 16646.66 1.97/0.01%

/.SPX 2040.04 7.59 / 0.37% .KS200 239.04 0.78/0.33%

/.IXIC 4712.533 26.586 / 0.56% .HSI 19694.33 132.08/0.67%

JPY= 109.95 0.23 / 0.21% /.SSEC 2807.33470 0.17940/0.01%

KRW= 1186.48 1.71 / 0.14% /CLc1 (Oil) 48.16 0.03 / 0.06%

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WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV

MON/16-May N/A KR Export Growth Revised Apr -11.2 N/A % -11.2

N/A KR Import Growth Revised Apr -14.9 N/A % -14.9

N/A KR Trade Balance Revised Apr 8.8 N/A B 8.80

06.50 JP Corp Goods Price MM Apr -0.3 0.2 % -0.1

06.50 JP Corp Goods Price YY Apr -4.2 -3.7 % -3.8

19.30 US NY Fed Manufacturing May -9.02 6.50 IND 9.56

21.00 US NAHB Housing Market Idx May 58 59 IND 58

03.00 US Net L-T Flows Exswaps Mar 78.1 N/A B 72.0 72.6

03.00 US Foreign Buying T-Bonds Mar 23.6 N/A B 9.9

03.00 US Overall Net Capital Flow Mar -98.3 N/A B 33.5 31.7

03.00 US Net L-T Flows Incl. Swaps Mar 64.6 N/A B 60.9 61.5

TUE/17-May 08.30 AU New Motor Vehicle Sales Apr -2.5 N/A % 2.2

08.30 AU RBA Minutes

11.30 JP Industrial Output Rev Mar 3.8 3.6 % 3.6

11.30 JP Capacity Util. Idx Chg. MM Mar 3.2 N/A % -5.4

15.30 HK Unemployment Rate Apr 3.4 N/A % 3.4

19.30 US CPI MM SA Apr 0.4 0.3 % 0.1

19.30 US CPI YY NSA Apr 1.1 1.1 % 0.9

19.30 US Core CPI MM SA Apr 0.2 0.2 % 0.1

19.30 US Core CPI YY NSA Apr 2.1 2.1 % 2.2

19.30 US CPI Index NSA Apr 239.26 239.10 IND 238.13

19.30 US Core CPI Index SA Apr 246.57 N/A IND 246.10

19.30 US Real Weekly Earnings MM Apr 0.2 N/A % 0.2 0.1

19.30 US Building Permits: Number Apr 1.116 1.130 M 1.076 1.077

19.30 US Build Permits: Chg. MM Apr 3.6 4.3 % -8.6 -7.3

19.30 US Housing Starts Number MM Apr 1.172 1.127 M 1.089 1.099

19.30 US House Starts MM: Chg. Apr 6.6 2.9 % -8.8 -9.4

20.15 US Industrial Output MM Apr 0.7 0.3 % -0.6 -0.9

20.15 US Capacity Utilization MM Apr 75.4 75.0 % 74.8 74.9

20.15 US Manuf Output MM Apr 0.3 0.3 % -0.3

22.30 US Cleveland Fed CPI Apr 0.3 N/A % 0.2

WED/18-May 06.50 JP GDP QQ Q1 0.4 0.1 % -0.3 -0.4

06.50 JP GDP QQ Annualised Q1 1.7 0.2 % -1.1 -1.7

06.50 JP GDP QQ Pvt Consump Prelim Q1 0.5 0.2 % -0.9 -0.8

06.50 JP GDP QQ Capital Expend Q1 -1.4 -0.8 % 1.5 1.2

06.50 JP GDP QQ External Demand Q1 0.2 0.1 % 0.1

08.30 CN China House Prices YY Apr 6.2 N/A % 4.9

08.30 AU Wage Price Index QQ Q1 0.4 0.5 % 0.5

08.30 AU Wage Price Index YY Q1 2.1 2.2 % 2.2

21.30 US EIA Crude Inventories w/e 1.31 -2.833 M -3.410

01.00 US FOMC Minutes

THU/19-May 04.00 KR PPI Growth YY Apr -3.1 N/A % -3.3

04.00 KR PPI Growth Apr 0.2 N/A % -0.1

06.50 JP Machinery Orders MM Mar 5.5 0.5 % -9.2

06.50 JP Machinery Orders YY Mar 3.2 0.8 % -0.7

08.30 AU Employment Apr 10.8 12.5 K 26.1 25.7

08.30 AU Full Time Employment Apr -9.3 N/A K -8.8 -10.1

08.30 AU Participation Rate Apr 64.8 64.9 % 64.9

08.30 AU Unemployment Rate Apr 5.7 5.8 % 5.7

19.30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E 278 275 K 294

19.30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. W/E 275.75 N/A K 268.25

19.30 US Continued Jobless Claims W/E 2.152 2.163 M 2.161 2.165

19.30 US National Activity Index Apr 0.10 N/A IND -0.44 -0.55

19.30 US Philly Fed Business Index May -1.8 3.5 IND -1.6

19.30 US Philly Fed Employment May -3.3 N/A IND -18.50

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(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Research @nikolasprasetia@her1en@ErwinRiset) 21.30 US FOMC Dudley Speaks

FRI/20-May 21.00 US Existing Home Sales Apr 5.40 M 5.33

21.00 US Exist. Home Sales % Chg. Apr 1.3 % 5.1

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SSIamM6 (Nikkei June Futures) – Last Trading Date: 13 Jun. 2016

•Trendline resistance di sekitar 16800 masih cukup efektif meredam rebound

•Target uptick di 16900

•Support kunci di 16240 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME

19 May SSIpmM6 16605 16620 16480 140 16530 --- 100 0.60 15828

19 May SSIamM6 16765 16840 16590 250 16630 16630 60 0.36 46124

18 May SSIpmM6 16630 16765 16590 175 16725 --- 155 0.94 12058

18 May SSIamM6 16590 16805 16495 310 16570 16570 145 0.87 69011

17 May SSIpmM6 16745 16785 16585 200 16585 --- 130 0.78 19460

17 May SSIamM6 16635 16720 16505 215 16715 16715 185 1.12 37340

16 May SSIpmM6 16475 16620 16455 165 16620 --- 90 0.54 8259

16 May SSIamM6 16395 16680 16375 305 16530 16530 180 1.10 52245

13 May SSIpmM6 16345 16550 16315 235 16385 --- 35 0.21 18756

13 May SSIamM6 16625 16810 16315 495 16350 16350 330 1.98 59171

WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2016

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

16840 16375 16840 15820 17740 15320 18945 14770

(19/May) (16/May) (19/May) (03/May) (22/Apr) (07/Apr) (04/Jan) (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

17120 Pivot line (1-H chart)

16900 Pivot line (1-D chart)

16840 High 19/May/2016

16700 Trendline resistance

SUPPORT

16410 Reaction low on 1-H chart

16315 Low 13/May/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 16650

STOP LOSS 16750

TARGET

16450 16390

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KSM6 (Kospi June Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Jun. 2016

• Area support kunci di sekitar 237.50 masih utuh

• RSI sudah oversold (23)

• Waspadai adanya pola Doji star !

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME 19 May 239.00 239.65 238.65 1.00 238.90 238.90 0.40 0.17 78707 18 May 240.50 240.55 238.35 2.20 239.30 239.30 1.95 0.81 134793 17 May 241.20 241.60 240.30 1.30 241.25 241.25 0.05 0.02 81932 16 May 239.95 241.75 239.55 2.20 241.20 241.20 0.80 0.33 90046 13 May 242.40 242.80 240.30 2.50 240.40 240.40 2.50 1.03 114800

WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2016

241.75 238.35 245.15 239.55 250.30 240.00 250.30 223.10

(16/May) (18/May) (02/May) (16/May) (20/Apr) (08/Apr) (20/Apr) (20/Jan)

RESISTANCE

246.25 Pivot line

244.35 High 11/May/2016

242.80 High 13/May/2016

241.75 High 16/May/2016

SUPPORT

237.50 Pivot line

234.90 Low 29/Feb/2016 (Reaction low)

234.05 Low 22/Feb/2016 (Bottom)

231.35 Low 17/Feb/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 238.25

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 237.25

TARGET 239.90

241.50

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HSIK6 (Hang Seng May Futures) – Exp. Date: 30 May 2016

•Area support di 19400 sedang diuji

•Daily trend cenderung bearish, namun RSI sudah oversold (27)

•Waspadai koreksi terbatas ! (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

19 May 19680 19731 19562 169 19606 19606 80 0.41 108007

18 May 19768 19822 19639 183 19686 19686 260 1.30 115722

17 May 19852 20016 19721 295 19946 19946 130 0.66 122703

16 May 19522 19880 19516 364 19816 19816 212 1.08 132547

13 May 19700 19744 19448 296 19605 19604 199 1.01 132046

12 May 19934 20009 19730 279 19803 19803 95 0.48 129034

WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2016

20016 19516 20987 19448 21664 19967 21857 18217

(17/May) (16/May) (03/May) (13/May) (21/Apr) (08/Apr) (04/Jan) (12/Feb)

RESISTANCE

20016 High 17/May/2016 (Reaction high)

19822 Reaction high on 1-H chart

SUPPORT

19400 Pivot line (1-D chart)

19287 Low 02/Mar/2016

18993 Low 01/Mar/2016

18884 Low 26/Feb/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 19600

STOP LOSS 19700

TARGET 19460