ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

(1)

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose.

We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

 Asia: Indeks saham Asia tembus level tertinggi 5-1/2 bulan pada hari Kamis setelah harga minyak melejit lebih dari 4%

di sesi overnight menyusul stok minyak AS naik lebih tipis dari perkiraan dan adanya harapan bahwa produsen minyak pada akhirnya akan menyetujui upaya untuk mengurangi kelebihan pasokan. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang naik 0,8%, menembus level tertinggi sejak awal November. Indeks Nikkei Jepang bertambah 2,6%. Saham Australia mendaki 0,9% dan Hang Seng, Hong Kong,menguat 1,8% sementara indeks Shanghai kehilangan 0,7%.

 Eropa: Bursa Eropa turun tipis pada hari Kamis setelah ECB tahan suku bunganya, dengan produsen peralatan telekomunikasi Swedia Ericsson dan produsen minuman Prancis Pernod pimpin penurunan setelah memberikan update yang mengecewakan. Presiden ECB Mario Draghi menahan suku bunga pada rekor terendah, melanjutkan kebijakan moneter ultra-longgar, dan mengatakan bank akan memulai pembelian obligasi korporasi dan putaran baru pembiayaan bank yang murah pada bulan Juni. Bursa Inggris juga jatuh pasca mencapai level penutupan tertinggi sehari sebelumnya, dipicu rontoknya saham pertambangan Anglo American dan Sky. Saham Sky turun 4,2% setelah muncul keraguan atas hak siar untuk pertandingan Bundesliga di Jerman. Sedangkan Anglo American jatuh 5,6%

setelah melaporkan produksi kuartal pertama yang menurun.

 AS & Global Markets: Harga minyak tergelincir pada Kamis kemarin setelah terindikasi akan adanya peningkatan produksi, sementara bursa AS terkoreksi untuk pertama kalinya dalam 4 sesi terakhirsetelah muncul laporan earnings yang beragam.

Euro melemah terhadap dolar setelah terlihat adanya potensi ECB akan menambah stimulus jika diperlukan.

Yield Treasury AS naik ke level tertinggi lebih dari 3 pekan menyusul kenaikan harga minyak belakangan ini telah mengurangi minat investor pada aset aman resiko (seperti obligasi AS).

Adapun data ekonomi yang akan diperhatikan hari ini adalah data PMI flash Eropa (Jumat), dengan fokus investor akan tertuju pada sidang Fed 27 April mendatang. The Fed diprediksi akan menaikkan suku bunga 2 kali tahun ini, kemungkinan besar mulai terjadi di bulan Juni dengan peluang terjadi sekitar 21% berdasarkan CME Group's FedWatch program.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC

RECORD HIGH 38915.87 (29/Dec/89)

295.51 (03/May/11)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07)

18351.36 (19/May/2015)

2134.72 (20/May/2015)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH 20952.71

(24/Jun/2015)

275.11 (24/Apr/2015)

28588.52 (27/Apr/2015)

18351.36 (19/May/2015)

2134.72 (20/May/2015)

5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH 18951.12

(04/Jan/16)

249.56 (20/Apr/16)

21794.84 (04/Jan/16)

18167.63 (20/Apr/16)

2111.05 (20/Apr/16)

3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 2016 LOW 14865.77

(12/Feb/16)

222.92 (20/Jan/16)

18278.80 (12/Feb/16)

15450.56 (20/Jan/16)

1810.10 (11/Feb/16)

2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW 16592.57

(16/Jan/2015)

217.52 (24/Aug/2015)

20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)

15370.33 (24/Aug/2015)

1867.01 (24/Aug/2015)

2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW 85.25 (06/Jul/50) 31.96

(16/Jun/98) 58.61 (31/Aug/67) 388.20

(17/Jan/55)

132.93 (23/Nov./82)

325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

Closing Prices – 21 April 2016

CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE

.DJI 17982.52  113.75 / 0.63% .N225 17363.62  457.08/2.70%

/.SPX 2091.48  10.92/ 0.52% .KS200 249.39  2.13/0.86%

/.IXIC 4945.886  2.244 / 0.05% .HSI 21622.25  385.94/1.82%

JPY= 109.45  0.38/ 0.35% /.SSEC 2952.60370  19.98000/0.67%

KRW= 1140.09  7.70 / 0.68% /CLc1 (Oil) 43.43  0.80 / 1.88%

(2)

Page 2 of 5

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Research @nikolasprasetia@her1en@ErwinRiset)

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV

MON/18-Apr 08.30 CN China House Prices YY Mar 4.9 N/A % 3.6

08.30 AU New Motor Vehicle Sales Mar 2.2 N/A % -0.1

10.00 KR L-Money Supply Growth Feb 8.3 N/A % 8.6

19.30 US FOMC Dudley Speaks

21.00 US NAHB Housing Market Idx Apr 58 59 IND 58

TUE/19-Apr N/A KR BoK Base Rate Apr 1.50 1.50 % 1.50

08.30 AU RBA Minutes

15.30 HK Unemployment Rate Mar 3.4 N/A % 3.3

19.30 US Building Permits: Number Mar 1.086 1.200 M 1.177

19.30 US Build Permits: Chg. MM Mar -7.7 N/A % -2.2

19.30 US Housing Starts Number MM Mar 1.089 1.170 M 1.178 1.194

19.30 US House Starts MM: Chg. Mar -8.8 N/A % 5.2 6.9

20.30 AU RBA Stevens Speaks

WED/20-Apr 04.00 KR PPI Growth YY Mar -3.3 N/A % -3.4

04.00 KR PPI Growth Mar -0.1 N/A % 0.0

06.30 JP Reuters Tankan DI Apr 10 N/A IND 6

06.50 JP Exports YY Mar -6.8 -6.9 % -4.0

06.50 JP Imports YY Mar -14.9 -16.2 % -14.2

06.50 JP Trade Balance Total Yen Mar 755.0 834.6 B 242.8

21.00 US Existing Home Sales Mar 5.33 5.30 M 5.08 5.07

21.00 US Exist. Home Sales % Chg. Mar 5.1 3.5 % -7.1 -7.3

21.30 US EIA Crude Inventories w/e 2.08 2.400 M 6.634

THU/21-Apr 15.30 HK Consumer Price Index Mar 3.0 N/A % 3.1

19.30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E 247 263 K 253

19.30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. W/E 260.50 N/A K 265.00

19.30 US Continued Jobless Claims W/E 2.137 2.171 M 2.171 2.176

19.30 US National Activity Index Mar -0.44 N/A IND -0.29 -0.38

19.30 US Philly Fed Business Idx Apr -1.6 8.9 IND 12.4

19.30 US Philly Fed Capex Index Apr 12.7 N/A IND 13.30

19.30 US Philly Fed Employment Apr -18.5 N/A IND -1.10

19.30 US Philly Fed Prices Paid Apr 13.2 N/A IND -0.90

20.00 US Monthly Home Price MM Feb 0.4 0.4 % 0.5 0.4

20.00 US Monthly Home Price YY Feb 5.6 N/A % 6.0

20.00 US Monthly Home Price Index Feb 231.4 N/A IND 230.7 230.5

21.00 US Leading Index Chg MM Mar 0.2 0.4 % 0.1 -0.1

FRI/22-Apr 09.00 JP Nikkei Mfg PMI Flash Apr 49.6 IND 49.1

20.45 US Markit Mfg PMI Flash Apr 52.0 IND 51.5

(3)

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose.

We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

SSIamM6 (Nikkei June Futures) – Last Trading Date: 13 Jun. 2016

 Daily trend bullish namun RSI sudah overbought (71)

 Area pivot line di 17165 berpotensi diuji lagi

 Area puncak di 17900 saat ini menjadi target berikutnya (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME

21 Apr SSIpmM6 17365 17415 17205 210 17225 ---  155 0.89 30716

21 Apr SSIamM6 17235 17410 17180 230 17380 17380  500 2.96 68479

20 Apr SSIpmM6 16930 17315 16875 440 17295 ---  415 2.46 26255

20 Apr SSIamM6 17025 17105 16850 255 16880 16880 UNCH UNCH 61020

19 Apr SSIpmM6 16845 17150 16845 305 17040 ---  160 0.95 35370

19 Apr SSIamM6 16735 16900 16725 175 16880 16880  570 3.49 65088

18 Apr SSIpmM6 16335 16685 16315 370 16675 ---  365 2.24 27168

18 Apr SSIamM6 16350 16435 16240 195 16310 16310  425 2.54 77798

15 Apr SSIpmM6 16735 16745 16595 150 16620 ---  115 0.69 18801

15 Apr SSIamM6 16740 16935 16705 230 16735 16735  110 0.65 58708

WEEKLY APRIL MARCH 2016

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

17415 16240 17415 15320 17165 15850 18945 14770

(21/Apr) (18/Apr) (21/Apr) (07/Apr) (14/Mar) (01/Mar) (04/Jan) (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE

18215 High 07/Jan/2016

17900 High 01/Feb/2016 (Peak)

17850 High 03/Feb/2016

17415 Reaction high on 1-H chart

SUPPORT

17165 Pivot line

17055 Reaction low on 1-H chart

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 17195

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 17100

TARGET 17420

17525

(4)

Page 4 of 5

KSM6 (Kospi June Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Jun. 2016

 Daily trend masih cenderung bullish

 Key resistance di 250.90 dengan target uptick di 254.30

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

21 Apr 249.25 250.30 248.65 1.65 249.90 249.90  1.95 0.79 101775

20 Apr 249.25 250.30 247.70 2.60 247.95 247.95  0.95 0.38 103967

19 Apr 249.15 249.90 248.50 1.40 248.90 248.90  0.55 0.22 84126

18 Apr 247.20 248.60 246.75 1.85 248.35 248.35  1.10 0.44 94985

15 Apr 249.35 250.00 248.90 1.10 249.45 249.45  0.15 0.06 88127

250.30 246.75 250.30 240.00 248.45 237.80 250.30 223.10

(20/Apr) (18/Apr) (20/Apr) (08/Apr) (30/Mar) (09/Mar) (20/Apr) (20/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

254.30 High 04/Nov/2015 (Peak)

252.90 High 05/Nov/2015

250.90 High 27/Nov/2015 (Peak)

249.60 Pivot line

SUPPORT

246.75 Low 18/Apr/2016

242.20 Low 12/Apr/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 249.40

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 248.25

TARGET 251.15

252.00

(5)

HSIJ6 (Hang Seng April Futures) – Exp. Date: 28 Apr. 2016

 Pola bullish trend channel

 Target uptick di 21800

 Key support di 21000 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

21 Apr 21446 21664 21351 313 21594 21594  323 1.52 130114

20 Apr 21498 21503 21122 381 21271 21271  162 0.76 123641

19 Apr 21447 21524 21276 248 21433 21433  266 1.26 112149

18 Apr 21088 21194 21021 173 21167 21167  175 0.82 98922

15 Apr 21427 21451 21258 193 21342 21342  1 0.01 95530

21664 21021 21664 19967 20891 18993 21857 18217

(21/Apr) (18/Apr) (21/Apr) (08/Apr) (31/Mar) (01/Mar) (04/Jan) (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

22297 High 24/Dec/2015 (Peak)

22156 High 30/Dec/2015 (Reaction high)

21664 High 21/Apr/2016

SUPPORT

21240 Minor trendline support

21122 Low 20/Apr/2016

20397 Low 12/Apr/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 21350

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 21220

TARGET 21700

21800