41
ﻲﺳرﺮﺑ
ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ ﺪﻧور گﺮﻣ و
و نﺎﺘﺳا رد نآ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺮﻴﻣ ﻲﻃ دﺰﻳ
لﺎﺳ يﺎﻫ 1390 - 1385
نﺎﮔﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ :
ﻲﻳازﺮﻴﻣ دﻮﻌﺴﻣ يوﺪﻬﻣ ﻦﺴﺤﻣ ،1
حﻼﻓ ﻦﻴﺴﺣ ،2 3هداز
ﺮﻈﺘﻨﻣ ﺪﻤﺤﻣ ،
4
1 . و رﺎﻣآ هوﺮﮔ رﺎﻳدﺎﺘﺳا دﺰﻳ ﻲﻗوﺪﺻ ﺪﻴﻬﺷ ﻲﻧﺎﻣرد ﻲﺘﺷاﺪﻬﺑ تﺎﻣﺪﺧ و ﻲﻜﺷﺰﭘ مﻮﻠﻋ هﺎﮕﺸﻧاد ،يژﻮﻟﻮﻴﻣﺪﻴﭘا
2 . لﻮﺌﺴﻣ هﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ :
ﻲﻗوﺪﺻ ﺪﻴﻬﺷ ﻲﻧﺎﻣرد ﻲﺘﺷاﺪﻬﺑ تﺎﻣﺪﺧ و ﻲﻜﺷﺰﭘ مﻮﻠﻋ هﺎﮕﺸﻧاد ،يژﻮﻟﻮﻴﻣﺪﻴﭘا ﺪﺷرا ﻲﺳﺎﻨﺷرﺎﻛ يﻮﺠﺸﻧاد
دﺰﻳ ، ﻦﻔﻠﺗ سﺎﻤﺗ : 09132210927 Email:[email protected]
3 . رﺎﻴﺸﻧاد ﺤﺗ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ يﺎﻫ يرﺎﻤﻴﺑ يژﻮﻟﻮﻴﻣﺪﻴﭘا و يﺮﻴﮕﺸﻴﭘ تﺎﻘﻴﻘ ﺮﻴﮔاو ﺮﻴﻏ
هﺎﮕﺸﻧاد ، ﻲﻧﺎﻣرد ﻲﺘﺷاﺪﻬﺑ تﺎﻣﺪﺧ و ﻲﻜﺷﺰﭘ مﻮﻠﻋ
دﺰﻳ ﻲﻗوﺪﺻ ﺪﻴﻬﺷ
4 . ناﺮﻤﻋ ﺪﺷرا سﺎﻨﺷرﺎﻛ
ﺖﺷاﺪﻬﺑ عﻮﻠﻃ
ﻲﺸﻫوﮋﭘ ﻲﻤﻠﻋ ﻪﻣﺎﻨﻫﺎﻣ ود ﺖﺷاﺪﻬﺑ هﺪﻜﺸﻧاد دﺰﻳ
ﻢﻫدرﺎﻬﭼ لﺎﺳ
هرﺎﻤﺷ : ﻢﺸﺷ
ﺪﻨﻔﺳا و ﻦﻤﻬﺑ 1394
ﻞﺴﻠﺴﻣ هرﺎﻤﺷ :
54
لﻮﺻو ﺦﻳرﺎﺗ :
9 / 11 / 1392
شﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳرﺎﺗ :
20 / 12 / 1392
هﺪﻴﻜﭼ
ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ : يرﺎﻤﻴﺑ زا ﺲﭘ گﺮﻣ ﺖﻠﻋ ﻦﻴﻣود ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ ناﺮﻳا رﻮﺸﻛ رد ﻲﻗوﺮﻋ ﻲﺒﻠﻗ يﺎﻫ
ﺖﻠﻋ ﻦﻴﻣﻮﺳ و
گﺮﻣ يرﺎﻤﻴﺑ زا ﺪﻌﺑ رﻮﺸﻛ رد نﺎﻃﺮﺳ و ﻲﻗوﺮﻋ ﻲﺒﻠﻗ يﺎﻫ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ لﺎﺣ رد يﺎﻫ ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ
ﺖﺳا . رﻮﺸﻛ رد
دوﺪﺣ ﺎﻣ 25000 و لﺎﺳ رد ﺮﻔﻧ 70
هدﺮﻛ تﻮﻓ ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ ﺮﺛا ﺮﺑ زور رد ﺮﻔﻧ ﺪﻧا
. نوﺰﻓا زور عﻮﻴﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ
ﺎﺳو و ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﻳ
نﺎﺘﺳا و رﻮﺸﻛ ﻞﻛ رد ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ يﻻﺎﺑ عﻮﻴﺷ و ﻪﻴﻠﻘﻧ ﻞ
،دﺰﻳ ﺪﻧورﺎﺗ ﺖﺳا نآ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳا
گﺮﻣ و ﺮﻴﻣ هرود ﻚﻳ رد ار ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ 5
ﺪﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻲﻠﺒﻗ رﺎﻣآ ﺎﺑ و هدﻮﻤﻧ ﻲﺳرﺮﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﺳ .
شور ﻲﺳرﺮﺑ شور ﻪﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳا : ﻪﺘﺷﺬﮔ
ﺢﻧاﻮﺳ ﺖﺒﺛ مﺎﻈﻧ تﺎﻋﻼﻃا ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﺮﮕﻧ ﻲﻣ
رﺎﻣآ زا هدﺎﻔﺘﺳا ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
لﺎﺳ يﺎﻫ 1390 - 1385 ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﺖﻳرﻮﻓ و ثداﻮﺣ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ يﺎﻫ
،دﺰﻳ ﻲﻜﺷﺰﭘ مﺎﺠﻧا رﻮﻫار ﺲﻴﻠﭘ و ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﻲﻜﺷﺰﭘ
ﺪﻳدﺮﮔ . دراﻮﻣ ﻪﻴﻠﻛ و ﺖﺳا يرﺎﻤﺷﺮﺳ شور ﻪﺑ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻢﺠﺣ گﺮﻣ
و ﺮﻴﻣ ار ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ
ﻲﻣ دﻮﺷ ) 2492 ﺮﻔﻧ .(
هداد مﺮﻓ زا ﺎﻫ زا ﺲﭘ و هﺪﻳدﺮﮔ يروآ ﻊﻤﺟ نﺎﻴﻓﻮﺘﻣ و ﻦﻴﻣوﺪﺼﻣ تﺎﻋﻼﻃا ﺖﺒﺛ يﺎﻫ
يروآدﺮﮔ راﺰﻓا مﺮﻧ زا هدﺎﻔﺘﺳا ﺎﺑ ﺎﻫداد
ﻪﺨﺴﻧ SPSS 16 ﺖﻓﺮﮔ راﺮﻗ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ درﻮﻣ .
گﺮﻣ ﺪﻧور و
ﺮﻴﻣ
ﺪﺷ شراﺰﮔ نﻮﺳآﻮﭘ نﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔر لﺪﻣ سﺎﺳا ﺮﺑ ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ .
ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺎﻫ گﺮﻣ دراﻮﻣ ﻲﺳرﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗﺎﺑ: و
گﺮﻣ زوﺮﺑ ناﺰﻴﻣ ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺮﻴﻣ و
زا ﺮﻴﻣ 7 / 4 لﺎﺳ رد ﺪﺻرد
1385 ﻪﺑ 37 / 3 لﺎﺳ رد ﺪﺻرد 1390
ﺖﺳا ﻪﺘﺷاد ﺶﻫﺎﻛ .
ﻲﻣ ﺮﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺑﺮﺿ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻲﺗﻮﻓ دراﻮﻣ ﺖﻳﺮﺜﻛا ناﺰﻴﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
زا نآ 9 / 79 لﺎﺳ رد ﺪﺻرد 1385
ﻪﺑ 3 / 62 لﺎﺳ رد 1390 ﺖﺳا ﻪﺘﺷاد ﺶﻫﺎﻛ .
ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ يﺮﻴﮔ ﺖﺳا ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ور ﻲﮔﺪﻨﻧار ﺢﻧاﻮﺳ ﺪﻧور: .
و ﻮﺳ ﻚﻳ زا ﻲﮔﺪﻨﻧار تارﺮﻘﻣ و ﻦﻴﻧاﻮﻗ ياﺮﺟا ﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣا
ﮓﻨﻫﺮﻓ ﻮﺳ زا يزﺎﺳ ي
لﺎﺳ لﻮﻃ رد تﺎﻓدﺎﺼﺗ ﺪﻧور ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻞﻣاﻮﻋ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ زا ﺮﮕﻳد يﺎﻫ
1385 ﺎﺗ 1390 ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .
هژاو يﺎﻫ يﺪﻴﻠﻛ گﺮﻣ ،ﺪﻧور ،ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ: ﺮﻴﻣو
ﻦﻳا ﺪﺷرا ﻲﺳﺎﻨﺷرﺎﻛ ﻊﻄﻘﻣ ﻲﻠﻴﺼﺤﺗ ﻪﻣﺎﻧ نﺎﻳﺎﭘ زا ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔﺮﺑ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ا
يژﻮﻟﻮﻴﻣﺪﻴﭘ تﺎﻣﺪﺧ و ﻲﻜﺷﺰﭘ مﻮﻠﻋ هﺎﮕﺸﻧاد
دﺰﻳ ﻲﻗوﺪﺻ ﺪﻴﻬﺷ ﻲﻧﺎﻣرد ﻲﺘﺷاﺪﻬﺑ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ
.
42
ﺪﻧور ﻲﺳرﺮﺑ گﺮﻣ و ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ
و دﺰﻳ نﺎﺘﺳا رد نآ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺮﻴﻣ ...
ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﺶﻴﭘ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻊﻳﺎﻗو ﺪﻨﭼ ﺮﻫ ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ ،ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ يﺮﻴﮕﺸﻴﭘ و ﻲﻨﻴﺑ
ﻪﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﻪﺑ ناواﺮﻓ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟا رﺎﺑ ﻞﻴﻤﺤﺗ ﺚﻋﺎﺑ ﺎﻣا ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻧدﺮﮔ ) 4 ( . ﺎﻣوﺮﺗ
ﻞﻣﺎﻋ 10 گﺮﻣ ﺪﺻرد ﺎﻴﻧد يﺎﻫ
هدﻮﺑ ردﺎﻗ ناﻮﺟ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ رد ﺐﻠﻏاو
خر رﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻫد ) 5 (.
ﺶﻫﺎﻛ هار ﻦﻳﺮﺗ ﻪﻓﺮﺻ ﻪﺑ نوﺮﻘﻣ ﺎﻣوﺮﺗ زا يﺮﻴﮕﺸﻴﭘ گﺮﻣ
و ﺮﻴﻣ
ﺖﺳا ) 6 ( . ﺐﻴﺳآ يﺎﻫ ﻊﻳﺎﺷ ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ ﻪﺑ طﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺖﻠﻋ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ
گﺮﻣ و ﺮﻴﻣ و ﻼﺘﺑا نﺎﻧاﻮﺟ ﻲﻨﺳ هوﺮﮔ ﻦﻴﺑ رد ﺎﻴﻧد ﺮﺳاﺮﺳرد
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ) 7 - 9 (.
هداد سﺎﺳا ﺮﺑ يﺎﻫ
گﺮﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﺖﺷاﺪﻬﺑ نﺎﻣزﺎﺳ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ يﺎﻫ
زا ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ 999000
لﺎﺳ رد 1990 ﻪﺑ 2 / 1 رد ﺮﻔﻧ نﻮﻴﻠﻴﻣ
لﺎﺳ 2002 ﺖﺳا هﺪﻴﺳر
ﺶﻳاﺰﻓا ﻚﻳ و 10
نﺎﺸﻧ ار يﺪﺻرد ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻫد
مﺎﺠﻧا مﺪﻋ ترﻮﺻ رد ﻪﻛ ﺶﻴﭘ ﻪﻧاﺮﻴﮕﺸﻴﭘ تﺎﻣاﺪﻗا
ﻲﻨﻴﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻦﻳا دﻮﺷ
لﺎﺳ ﺎﺗ مﺎﻗرا 2020
ﺎﻴﻧد ﻞﻛ رد 65
ﻢﻛ يﺎﻫرﻮﺸﻛ رد و ﺪﺻرد
ﺪﻣآرد 80 ﺖﻓﺎﻳ ﺪﻫاﻮﺧ ﺶﻳاﺰﻓا ﺪﺻرد )
10 ( .
لﺎﺳ رد 1998 هدﺎﺟ ثداﻮﺣ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ يا
85 ﻞﻛ ﺪﺻرد گﺮﻣ
و ﺮﻴﻣ و ﺎﻫ
96 شراﺰﮔ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ لﺎﺣ رد يﺎﻫرﻮﺸﻛرد نﺎﻛدﻮﻛ گﺮﻣ ﺪﺻرد
هﺪﺷ ﺪﻧا ) 11 (.
ﺢﻧاﻮﺳ ﻲﮔﺪﻨﻧار ﻞﻣﺎﻋ 12 ﻦﻴﻣﻮﺳ و نﺎﻬﺟ رد يرﺎﻤﻴﺑ رﺎﺑ زا ﺪﺻرد
و گﺮﻣ ﺖﻠﻋ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ
ﻲﻨﺳ هوﺮﮔ رد گﺮﻣ ﻲﻠﺻا ﺖﻠﻋ 40
- 1 لﺎﺳ
ﺖﺳا ) 12 ( . هداد سﺎﺳا ﺮﺑ يﺎﻫ
ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﺖﺷاﺪﻬﺑ نﺎﻣزﺎﺳ گﺮﻣ ،
يﺎﻫ
ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ 25
گﺮﻣ ﻞﻛ ﺪﺻرد يﺎﻫ
زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ
ثداﻮﺣ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ) 13 (.
لﺎﺳ رد 2000 و ﺢﻧاﻮﺳ ثداﻮﺣ
ﻞﻣﺎﻋ 9 %
گﺮﻣ و ﺮﻴﻣ ﺎﻫ و 12 % يرﺎﻤﻴﺑ هدﻮﺑ نﺎﻬﺟ ﺮﺳاﺮﺳ رد ﺎﻫ زا ﺶﻴﺑ و ﺪﻧا
90 % رد ﻢﻛ ﺮﺸﻗ ﻪﺑ طﻮﺑﺮﻣ نﺎﻬﺟ رد ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ و ﺪﻣآ
ﺖﺳا هدﻮﺑ ﻪﻌﻣﺎﺟ )
14 ( . ﻦﻴﺸﻧﺮﺳ ﺪﻨﻤﺗوﺮﺛ يﺎﻫرﻮﺸﻛ رد
يﺎﻫ ﻞﻴﺒﻣﻮﺗا يﺎﻫ ﺮﺜﻛاﺪﺣ يراﻮﺳ
گﺮﻣ و هداد صﺎﺼﺘﺧا دﻮﺧ ﻪﺑ ار ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺮﻴﻣ ﺪﻧا
ﻲﺗرﻮﺻ رد
،ﻦﻴﺗﻻ يﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣآ زا ﻲﻘﻃﺎﻨﻣ و ﺮﻴﻘﻓ يﺎﻫرﻮﺸﻛ رد ﻪﻛ
،ﺎﻴﺳآ گﺮﻣ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺎﻘﻳﺮﻓآو ﺐﻴﺋرﺎﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ رد،تﺎﻓدﺎﺼﺗ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ يﺎﻫ
،ﺎﻫراﻮﺳ ﻪﺧﺮﭼود
،يرﻮﺗﻮﻣ ﻪﻴﻠﻘﻧ ﻞﻳﺎﺳو ﻦﻳﺮﻓﺎﺴﻣ،هدﺎﻴﭘ ﻦﻳﺮﺑﺎﻋ
ﻲﻣ خر سﻮﺑ ﻲﻨﻴﻣ و سﻮﺑﻮﺗا ﺪﻫد
) 15 (.
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ رد ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ يا
Solagiro مﺎﺠﻧا ﻪﻳﺮﺠﻴﻧ رد نارﺎﻜﻤﻫ و
نﺎﻧز ﻪﺑ نادﺮﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ هﺪﺷ 5
/ 2 ﻪﺑ 1 نادﺮﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻦﺳ و
8 /
±36 2 / 15 نﺎﻧز رد و 5 /
±45 23 ﺖﺳا هدﻮﺑ )
16 (.
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ رد ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻦﻴﭼ رد هﺪﺷ مﺎﺠﻧا يا
Zhou نﺎﺸﻧ نارﺎﻜﻤﻫ و
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻓﺎﺴﻣ و نﺎﮔﺪﻨﻧار ﺮﺜﻛا ﻦﺳ ﺪﻫد ﺐﻴﺳآ نا
هﺪﻳد 18 ﺎﺗ 30
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .) 17 ( . ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ رد ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ يا Suriawong
رد نارﺎﻜﻤﻫ و
نادﺮﻣ ﺖﺳا هﺪﺷ مﺎﺠﻧا ﺪﻨﻠﻳﺎﺗ 4
ضﺮﻌﻣ رد نﺎﻧز ﺮﺑاﺮﺑ آ
و هدﻮﺑ ﺐﻴﺳ
70
% آ ﺐﻴﺳ ﻦﺳ رد نﺎﮔﺪﻳد 10
ﺎﺗ 39 ﺪﻧا هدﻮﺑ ) 18 (.
ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ
، يرﺎﻤﻴﺑ زا ﺲﭘ گﺮﻣ ﺖﻠﻋ ﻦﻴﻣود ﻲﺒﻠﻗ يﺎﻫ
ﻲﻗوﺮﻋ
، ناﺮﻳارد ﺖﻴﻟﻮﻠﻌﻣ ﺖﻠﻋ ﻦﻴﻟوا )
20،19،2 ( ﺖﻠﻋ ﻦﻴﻣﻮﺳ و
يرﺎﻤﻴﺑ زا ﺪﻌﺑ گﺮﻣ رﻮﺸﻛ رد نﺎﻃﺮﺳ و ﻲﻗوﺮﻋ ﻲﺒﻠﻗ يﺎﻫ
يﺎﻫ رد
ﺖﺳا ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ لﺎﺣ )
3 (.
بﻮﺴﺤﻣ ﻲﻣ دﻮﺷ ) 19
، 20 ( رد ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ رﺎﻣآ ، ﺮﺑاﺮﺑ ود ناﺮﻳا
ثداﻮﺣ ﻦﻳا زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻦﻴﻣوﺪﺼﻣ رﺎﻣآ و
، رﺎﻣآ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣﺮﺑاﺮﺑ ﺞﻨﭘ
ﺖﺳا ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ )
21 (.
ا رﻮﺸﻛ رد ناﺮﻳ
دوﺪﺣ 25000 و لﺎﺳ رد ﺮﻔﻧ 70
ﺮﺛا ﺮﺑ زور رد ﺮﻔﻧ
هدﺮﻛ تﻮﻓ ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ و ﺪﻧا
هد ﺎﻫ دراد دﻮﺟو لﻮﻠﻌﻣ نآ ﺮﺑاﺮﺑ
ﻦﺘﻓر رﺪﻫ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ ﻪﻛ 2271
درﺎﻴﻠﻴﻣ راﺰﻫ ﺶﺷ و هﺪﺷ ﺮﻤﻋ لﺎﺳ
ﺮﺑ رد ترﺎﺴﺧ نﺎﻣﻮﺗ ﻪﺘﺷاد
ﺖﺳا ) 22 (.
29 گﺮﻣ ﻞﻛ ﺪﺻرد ﺎﻫ
رد ناﺮﻳا ﺖﻠﻌﺑ ثداﻮﺣ ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ﺖﺳا
43
ﻪﻣﺎﻨﻫﺎﻣود دﺰﻳ ﺖﺷاﺪﻬﺑ هﺪﻜﺸﻧاد ﻲﺸﻫوﮋﭘ ﻲﻤﻠﻋ
ﻞﻴﻤﺤﺗ ﺚﻋﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ 12580
درﺎﻴﻠﻴﻣ لﺎﻳر رﺎﺑ يدﺎﺼﺘﻗا ﻪﺑ
رﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﻣ دﻮﺷ ) 23 ( . ياﺮﺑ ﻲﺳﺎﺳا ﺶﻟﺎﭼ ﻚﻳ ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ
رﺎﻤﺷ ﻪﺑ يﺮﺸﺑ ﻪﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﻲﻣ
شﻼﺗ ﺪﻨﻣزﺎﻴﻧ نآ زا يﺮﻴﮕﺸﻴﭘ ﻪﻛ دور يﺎﻫ
ﻞﻤﺣ ﺮﮕﻳد فﺮﻃ زا و ﺖﺳا ﻪﺒﻧﺎﺟ ﻪﻤﻫ و
هدﺎﺟ ﻞﻘﻧ هﺪﻴﭽﻴﭘ يا ﻦﻳﺮﺗ
كﺎﻧﺮﻄﺧ و
ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳا ﻲﻤﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ رﺎﻛوﺮﺳ نآ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻌﻣﺎﺟ داﺮﻓا
ﺪﻧراد ) 3 ( . داﺪﻌﺗ ﺖﺷاﺪﻬﺑ ترازو ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﺖﻧوﺎﻌﻣ مﻼﻋا سﺎﺳا ﺮﺑ
گﺮﻣ يﺎﻫ زا رﻮﺸﻛ ﻞﻛ رد ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ 22500
رد
لﺎﺳ 1380 ﻪﺑ 31800 لﺎﺳ رد 1382 ﺖﺳا هﺪﻴﺳر )
24 ( . دروآﺮﺑ
گﺮﻣ يﺎﻤﻴﺳ 18
لﺎﺳ رد نﺎﺘﺳا 1380
دوﺪﺣ داد نﺎﺸﻧ 22500
ﺮﻔﻧ
هداد ﺖﺳد زا ار دﻮﺧ نﺎﺟ ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ ﺮﺛا رد لﺎﺳ رد ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧا
ﻴﻣ گﺮﻣ ناﺰ 5
/ 35 نﺎﺸﻧ ار ﺮﻔﻧ راﺰﻫ ﺪﺻ رد ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻫد ) 25 (.
لﺎﺳ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ سﻮﻔﻧ يرﺎﻤﺷﺮﺳ سﺎﺳا ﺮﺑ 1385
دﺰﻳ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ 750769
ﺮﻔﻧ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . دﺰﻳ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻪﺑ يﻮﻐﻟ ﺮﻈﻧ زا سﺪﻘﻣ و كﺎﭘ
ﺖﺳا
،
ﺖﺣﺎﺴﻣ ﺎﺑ دﺰﻳ نﺎﺘﺳﺮﻬﺷ 6336
ﺮﻬﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻊﺑﺮﻣ ﺮﺘﻣﻮﻠﻴﻛ
"
ﻪﺧﺮﭼود
"
ﺎﻫ
ﻪﺧﺮﭼود هزوﺮﻣا ﺎﻣا هدﻮﺑ فوﺮﻌﻣ ﺎﻫ
و ﻞﻴﺒﻣﻮﺗا ﻪﺑ ار دﻮﺧ هﺎﮕﻳﺎﺟ
هداد ﺖﻠﻜﻴﺳرﻮﺗﻮﻣ هﮋﻳﻮﺑ يرﻮﺗﻮﻣ ﻪﻴﻠﻘﻧ ﻞﻳﺎﺳو ﻪﻛ يﻮﺤﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻧا
80 ﺪﺻرد هداﻮﻧﺎﺧ يﺎﻫ يدﺰﻳ ياراد رﻮﺗﻮﻣ ﺖﻠﻜﻴﺳ و 100000
ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ددﺮﺗ لﺎﺣ رد دﺰﻳ ﺮﻬﺷ رد ﺖﻠﻜﻴﺳرﻮﺗﻮﻣ .
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ رد حﻼﻓ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ يا ﺪﻧور درﻮﻣ رد نارﺎﻜﻤﻫ و هداز
گﺮﻣ
و ﺮﻴﻣ ﺐﻴﺳآ يﺎﻫ لﺎﺳ زا دﺰﻳ نﺎﺘﺳارد ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ
1380 ﺎﺗ 1385 ناﺰﻴﻣ ،ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ترﻮﺻ گﺮﻣ
و ﺮﻴﻣ ﺐﻴﺳآ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ
زا ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ 1
/ 46 رد 100000 ﺮﻔﻧ ﻪﺑ 9 / 46 لﺎﺳ رد 1383
ﻪﺑ ﺲﭙﺳ و هﺪﻴﺳر 8
/ 38 لﺎﺳ رد 1385 ﺖﺳا ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ .
2565 ﺮﻔﻧ
لﺎﺳ ﻦﻳا لﻮﻃ رد ﻲﺗﻮﻓ ﺖﺳا هﺪﻴﺳر ﺖﺒﺛ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫ
) 26 ( .
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ رد ﻲﻘﺗ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ يا
ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻲﺳرﺮﺑ رد نارﺎﻜﻤﻫ و رﻮﭘ يﺎﻫ
ﺪﺷ مﺎﺠﻧا دﺰﻳ رد ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ نﺎﻴﻓﻮﺘﻣ رد ﻲﺴﭘﻮﺗوا ﻣ ﺖﻠﻋ ﻦﻳﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺪﻳدﺮﮔ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ
ﺮﺳ ﻪﻴﺣﺎﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻣوﺮﺗ گﺮ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ) 27 (.
و ﻪﻴﻠﻘﻧ ﻞﺋﺎﺳو داﺪﻌﺗ ﺰﻴﻧ و ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ نوﺰﻓا زور عﻮﻴﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ،دﺰﻳ نﺎﺘﺳا هﮋﻳﻮﺑ رﻮﺸﻛ ﻞﻛ رد ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ يﻻﺎﺑ عﻮﻴﺷ
ﻪﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳا هﺪﺸﻧ مﺎﺠﻧا صﻮﺼﺧ ﻦﻳا رد يﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻲﺳرﺮﺑ
و ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ ﻚﻳژﻮﻟﻮﻴﻣﺪﻴﭘا ﺪﻧور گﺮﻣ
و ﺮﻴﻣ رد نآ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ
دﺰﻳ نﺎﺘﺳا ﻲﻣ
دزادﺮﭘ .
ﻲﺳرﺮﺑ شور
ﻪﺘﺷﺬﮔ شور ﻪﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳا ﺢﻧاﻮﺳ ﺖﺒﺛ مﺎﻈﻧ تﺎﻋﻼﻃا ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﺮﮕﻧ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻣ رﺎﻣآ زا هدﺎﻔﺘﺳا ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺖﻳرﻮﻓ و ثداﻮﺣ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﺰﻛ
يﺎﻫ
،دﺰﻳ ﻲﻜﺷﺰﭘ ﻲﻜﺷﺰﭘ
لﺎﺳ رد ﺎﺟﺎﻧ رﻮﻫار ﺲﻴﻠﭘ و ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎﻗ يﺎﻫ
1385 ﻲﻟا 1390 ﺪﻳدﺮﮔ مﺎﺠﻧا .
دراﻮﻣ ﻪﻴﻠﻛ و ﺖﺳا يرﺎﻤﺷﺮﺳ شور ﻪﺑ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻢﺠﺣ گﺮﻣ
و ﺮﻴﻣ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ
ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ار ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ زا ﻲﻣ
دﻮﺷ 2492) ﺮﻔﻧ . ( هداد ﺎﻫ مﺮﻓ زا يﺎﻫ
ﻊﻤﺟ نﺎﻴﻓﻮﺘﻣ و ﻦﻴﻣوﺪﺼﻣ تﺎﻋﻼﻃا ﺖﺒﺛ نﺎﻣز رد و هﺪﻳدﺮﮔ يروآ
ﻊﻤﺟ هداد يروآ ﺎﻫ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
،ﺲﻨﺟ ،ﻦﺳ ﻞﻴﺒﻗ زا ﻲﻳﺎﻫ
،تﻮﻓ ﺖﻠﻋ
و تﻼﻴﺼﺤﺗ ﻪﻴﻠﻘﻧ ﻪﻠﻴﺳو عﻮﻧ
ﺖﻓﺮﮔ راﺮﻗ ﻲﺳرﺮﺑ درﻮﻣ .
زا ﺲﭘ
هداد يروآدﺮﮔ ﺎﻫ
راﺰﻓا مﺮﻧ هدﺎﻔﺘﺳا ﺎﺑ ﻪﺨﺴﻧSPSS
16 ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ درﻮﻣ
ﺖﻓﺮﮔ راﺮﻗ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ و .
ﺪﻧور گﺮﻣ و ﺮﻴﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ
ﺪﺷ شراﺰﮔ نﻮﺳآﻮﭘ نﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔر لﺪﻣ سﺎﺳا .
ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺎﻫ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳا رد 2492
ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ ﺮﺛا رد ﻪﻛ ﺮﻔﻧ لﺎﺳ ﻲﻃ
يﺎﻫ
1385 ﺎﺗ 1390 ﺖﻓﺮﮔ راﺮﻗ ﻲﺳرﺮﺑ درﻮﻣ ﺪﻧدﻮﺑ هدﺮﻛ تﻮﻓ .
ﻞﻛ زا
دراﻮﻣ تﻮﻓ لﺎﺳ رد هﺪﺷ 1385
، 8 / 78 و نادﺮﻣ ار ﺪﺻرد
2 / 21 نﺎﻧز ار ﺪﺻرد لﺎﺳ ردو
1390 ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺘﺑ ، 5 / 74 ار ﺪﺻرد نادﺮﻣ
و 5 / 25 ﻞﻴﻜﺸﺗ نﺎﻧز ار ﺪﺻرد ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻧداد ) رادﻮﻤﻧ 1 .(
44
ﺪﻧور ﻲﺳرﺮﺑ گﺮﻣ و ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ
و دﺰﻳ نﺎﺘﺳا رد نآ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺮﻴﻣ ...
رادﻮﻤﻧ 1 : تاﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪﻧور لﺎﺳ ﻲﻃ ﺲﻨﺟ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ دﺰﻳ نﺎﺘﺳا ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ رد هﺪﺷ تﻮﻓ داﺮﻓا ﻲﻧاواﺮﻓ
يﺎﻫ 1390 - 1385
رادﻮﻤﻧ
2 : تﻮﻓ داﺮﻓا ﻲﻧاواﺮﻓ تاﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪﻧور دﺰﻳ نﺎﺘﺳا ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ رد هﺪﺷ
لﺎﺳ ﻲﻃ ﻦﺳ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ يﺎﻫ
1390 - 1385
دراﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ،ﻲﻨﺳ ﺮﻈﻧ زا گﺮﻣ
و ﺮﻴﻣ ﻲﻨﺳ هوﺮﮔ رد 20
ﺎﺗ
29 ) 31 (%
لﺎﺳرد 1385 و 6 / 29 لﺎﺳ رد 1390 و دﻮﺑ هدﺎﺘﻓا قﺎﻔﺗا
مﻮﺳود زا ﺶﻴﺑ گﺮﻣ
و ﺮﻴﻣ زا ﺮﻨﻤﻛ ﻦﻴﻨﺳ رد 40
هﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ لﺎﺳ
ﺪﺷ ) رادﻮﻤﻧ 2 .(
4
/ 23 و 5 / 22 تﻮﻓ زا ﺪﺻرد لﺎﺳ رد نﺎﮔﺪﺷ
1385 ياراد ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺘﺑ
ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﺘﺷاد ﻪﻄﺳﻮﺘﻣ و ﻲﻳاﺪﺘﺑا تﻼﻴﺼﺤﺗ لﺎﺳ رد ﺎﻬﻧآ ناﺰﻴﻣ
1390
ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺘﺑ ﻪﺑ 20 و 6 / 18 ﺖﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺪﺻرد .
ﻪﺒﺗر رد داﻮﺴﻴﺑ داﺮﻓا
ﺪﻨﺘﻓﺮﮔ راﺮﻗ يﺪﻌﺑ )
لوﺪﺟ 1 .(
45
ﺪﻧور ﻲﺳرﺮﺑ گﺮﻣ و ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ
و دﺰﻳ نﺎﺘﺳا رد نآ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺮﻴﻣ ...
لوﺪﺟ 1 : تﻮﻓ داﺮﻓا ﻲﻧاواﺮﻓ ﻊﻳزﻮﺗ نﺎﺘﺳا ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ رد هﺪﺷ
ﺎﺳ ﻲﻃ تﻼﻴﺼﺤﺗ ناﺰﻴﻣ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ دﺰﻳ ل
يﺎﻫ 1390 - 1385
ﻊﻤﺟ
ﻞﻛ مﻮﻠﻌﻣﺎﻧ هﺎﮕﺸﻧاد نﺎﺘﺳﺮﻴﺑد ﻲﻳﺎﻤﻨﻫار ﻲﻳاﺪﺘﺑا داﻮﺴﻴﺑ تﻼﻴﺼﺤﺗ لﺎﺳ 469(100%) 20(4/4%) 55(11/8%) 90(19/4%) 105(22/5%) 109(23/4%) 85(18/5%) 1385 454(100%) 17(7/3%) 45(9/9%) 80(17/8%) 95(20/9%) 122(26/8%) 95(20/9%) 1386 409(100%) 16(5/3%) 46(11/3%) 76(18/4%) 98(23/8%) 94(21/9%) 79(19/3%) 1387 393(100%) 20(5%) 42(10/5%) 63(16/3%) 83(21/2%) 105(26/7%) 80(20/3%) 1388 398(100%) 30(7/4%) 60(15/6%) 26(6/4%) 89(22/3%) 100(25/1%) 93(23/2%) 1389 369(100%) 42(11/3%) 53(14/4%) 42(11/5%) 69(18/6%) 74(20%) 89(24/2%) 1390
2492 2492 301 377 539 604 521 ﻞﻛﻊﻤﺟ
لوﺪﺟ 2 : نﺎﺘﺳا ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ رد هﺪﺷ تﻮﻓ داﺮﻓا ﻲﻧاواﺮﻓ ﻊﻳزﻮﺗ يﺎﻬﻟﺎﺳ ﻲﻃ گﺮﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻠﻋ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ دﺰﻳ
1390 - 1385
ﻊﻤﺟ
ﻞﻛ دراﻮﻣ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻲﮕﺘﺧﻮﺳ دﺪﻌﺘﻣ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﻜﺷ يﺰﻳﺮﻧﻮﺧ ﺮﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺑﺮﺿ تﻮﻓ ﺖﻠﻋ لﺎﺳ 469(100%) 8(1/7%) 3(.7%) 48(10/3%) 35(7/4%) 375(79/9%) 1385 454(100%) 15(3/4%) 0 56(12/4%) 46(10%) 337(42/2%) 1386 409(100%) 24(5/9%) 12(2/9%) 75(18/4%) 36(8/8%) 262(64%) 1387 393(100%) 47(11/9%) 9(2/4%) 68(17/4%) 34(8/6%) 235(59/7%) 1388 398(100%) 15(3/8%) 4(1/1%) 93(23/4%) 15(3/7%) 271(68%) 1389 369(100%) 27(7/3%) 5(1/4%) 87(23/6%) 20(5/4%) 230(62/3%) 1390
2492 2492 33 427 186 1710 ﻞﻛﻊﻤﺟ
ﺐﺘﻳﺮﺘﺑ هﺪﻳد ﻪﺛدﺎﺣ داﺮﻓا تﻮﻓ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻠﻋ ﺮﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺑﺮﺿ
) 9 / 79
% ( ،
دﺪﻌﺘﻣ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﻜﺷ )
3 / 10
% ( لﺎﺳ رد 1385 و 3 / 62 و ﺪﺻرد 6
/ 23
لﺎﺳ رد ﺪﺻرد 1390
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ) لوﺪﺟ 2 (.
6 / 56 تﻮﻓ دراﻮﻣ ﺪﺻرد ﻦﻴﺷﺎﻣ نﺎﮔﺪﻨﻧار زا هﺪﺷ
يﺎﻫ و يراﻮﺳ
ﺖﻠﻜﻴﺳرﻮﺗﻮﻣ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ . ﻦﻴﺷﺎﻣ ،ﻪﻴﻠﻘﻧ ﻪﻠﻴﺳو عﻮﻧ ﺮﻈﻧ زا يﺎﻫ
يراﻮﺳ
هداد صﺎﺼﺘﺧا دﻮﺧ ﻪﺑ ار ﻢﻬﺳ ﻦﻳﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻲﺼﺨﺷ )
8 / 55 .(
ﺪﻧور ﻲﺳرﺮﺑ رد گﺮﻣ
و ﺮﻴﻣ لﺪﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ
يﺎﻬﻟﺎﺳ لﻮﻃ رد ﻲﻧﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔر 1386
ﺎﺗ 1390 ﻲﻨﻌﻣ توﺎﻔﺗ يراد
ﺪﺸﻧ شراﺰﮔ )
15 / 0 (p=
.
ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ و ﺚﺤﺑ ﺮﻴﮔ
ي
ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ نادﺮﻣ ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ نﺎﻴﻧﺎﺑﺮﻗ ﺮﺜﻛا داد نﺎﺸﻧ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺧﺮﭼود زا هدﺎﻔﺘﺳا ،رﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﮕﻨﻫﺮﻓ ﻂﻳاﺮﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ نﺎﮔﺪﻨﻧار ﺮﺜﻛا و ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﺞﻳار نﺎﻧز ﻦﻴﺑ رد نﻮﻴﻣﺎﻛ و ﺖﻠﻜﻴﺳرﻮﺗﻮﻣ و
ﻞﻴﻜﺸﺗ نادﺮﻣ ار ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻨﻫد . ﻲﻨﺳ هوﺮﮔ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ 20
ﺎﺗ 29 رد لﺎﺳ
ﻲﻧﺎﺑﺮﻗ سار ﺎﻫ
ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﺘﺷاد راﺮﻗ حﻼﻓ
لﺎﺳ رد هداز 1380
ﺎﺗ
1385 لﺎﺳ رد نﺎﻴﻧﺎﻓ و دﺰﻳ نﺎﺘﺳا رد 1382
ﺎﺗ 1383 نﺎﺘﺳا رد
دراد ﻖﺑﺎﻄﺗ نﺎﻬﻔﺻا .
ﻪﻠﻴﺳو نﺎﮔﺪﻨﻧار رد ﻲﺗﻮﻓ دراﻮﻣ ﺮﺜﻛا ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ
ﻪﺑﺮﺿ ﺮﺛا رد اﺮﺜﻛا و ﺪﻧدﻮﺑ يراﻮﺳ ﻪﻴﻠﻘﻧ
ﻪﺑ ﺮﺳ تﻮﻓ ﺪﻧا هدﺮﻛ ﻪﻛ
46
لﺎﺳ رد مﻼﻳا نﺎﺘﺳا ناﺪﻨﻤﻟﺎﺳ ﻲﺘﺷاﺪﻬﺑ يﺎﻫزﺎﻴﻧ و ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﺖﻴﻌﺿو ﻲﺳرﺮﺑ 1391
حﻼﻓ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ هﺪﺷ مﺎﺠﻧا تﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﺑﺎﺸﻣ رﺎﻣآ ﻦﻳا هداز
يﺎﻬﻟﺎﺳ رد
1380 ﺎﺗ 1385 يﺎﻬﻟﺎﺳ رد يرﻮﺳ و 1383
ﺎﺗ 1386 ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ) 28 ( .
ناﺰﻴﻣ رد ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ور ﺪﻧور ﻚﻳ داد نﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳا گﺮﻣ
و ﺮﻴﻣ
ﺣ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ يﺎﻬﻟﺎﺳ لﻮﻃ رد ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮ
1385 ﺎﺗ 1390 دﻮﺟو
ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳا ﻪﺘﺷاد و ﻲﻳﺎﻤﻨﻫار تارﺮﻘﻣو ﻦﻴﻧاﻮﻗ ﺪﻳﺪﺸﺗ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣا
ﺖﺳا نآ ياﺮﺟا و ﻲﮔﺪﻨﻧار .
ﺰﻣﺮﺗ و اﻮﻫ ﻪﺴﻴﻛ يرﺎﺒﺟا ﺐﺼﻧ فﺮﻃ زا تﺎﺠﻧﺎﺧرﺎﻛ ﻂﺳﻮﺗABS
زا ﻲﻨﻤﻳا هﻼﻛ و ﺪﻨﺑﺮﻤﻛ زا يرﺎﺒﺟا هدﺎﻔﺘﺳا و ﻮﺴﻜﻳ زا رﻮﻫار ﺲﻴﻠﭘ ﺳ ﺮﮕﻳد يﻮﺳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺐﺒ
گﺮﻣ و ﺮﻴﻣ ﻪﺑﺮﺿ ﺖﻠﻌﺑ تﺎﻓدﺎﺼﺗ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ
ﺪﻳدﺮﮔ ﺮﺳ ﻪﺑ )
29 (.
ﻪﻠﻤﺟ زا ﻲﺗارﺮﻘﻣ و ﻦﻴﻧاﻮﻗ لﺎﻤﻋا ﻦﻴﮕﻨﺳ
نﺪﺷ
ﻪﻤﻳﺮﺟ يﺎﻫ
،ﻲﮔﺪﻨﻧار ﻧ لﺎﻤﻋا
ﻤ
،ﻲﻔﻨﻣ هﺮ رد ﻦﻴﺷﺎﻣ ﻒﻴﻗﻮﺗ
،ﮓﻨﻴﻛرﺎﭘ
،ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﻲﺗﺪﻣ ياﺮﺑ ﻪﻣﺎﻨﻴﻫاﻮﮔ ﻂﺒﺿ ﻪﻴﻬﺗ ﺪﻨﻳآﺮﻓ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ
ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ،ﻪﻣﺎﻨﻴﻫاﻮﮔ يﺎﻫ
ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻲﺷزﻮﻣآ ﺶﺨﭘ و هﺪﺷ
ﻞﻳﺎﺳو زا هﺪﺷ
نﻮﻳﺰﻳﻮﻠﺗ و ﻮﻳدار ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ طﺎﺒﺗرا ﻲﻣ
ﻦﻳا ﺪﻧور ﺶﻫﺎﻛرد ناﻮﺗ
گﺮﻣ و ﺮﻴﻣ ﺖﺴﻧاد ﻞﻴﺧد )
28 ( . ﺮﻳﺎﺳ و رﻮﻫار ﺲﻴﻠﭘ يرﺎﻜﻤﻫ
نﺎﮔرا
،يﺮﺑاﺮﺗ هار و ﻲﻧﺎﺘﺳرﺎﻤﻴﺑ ﺶﻴﭘ ﺲﻧاژروا ﻪﻠﻤﺟزا ﺎﻫ ﺶﻳاﺰﻓا
هﺎﮕﻳﺎﭘ داﺪﻌﺗ ﺒﻣآ نﺎﮔوﺎﻧ ﺖﻳﻮﻘﺗ و ﺲﻧاژروا يﺎﻫ
ﺲﻧﻻﻮ يﺎﻫ
،ﺲﻧاژروا ﮓﻨﻫﺮﻓ
ﻪﻧﺎﺳر ﻖﻳﺮﻃ زا يزﺎﺳ يﺎﻫ
ياﺮﺟا ﺎﺑ ﻲﻫوﺮﮔ
ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ
،ﺮﻴﺨﺑ ﺮﻔﺳ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ زا ﻲﻳﺎﻫ ﺲﻴﻠﭘ نﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷرﺎﻛ رﻮﻀﺣ
،سراﺪﻣ رد رﻮﻫار سﻼﻛو ﺲﻴﻠﭘ رﺎﻴﻤﻫ حﺮﻃ ياﺮﺟا
يﺎﻫ ﻲﺷزﻮﻣآ
ﻪﻣﺎﻨﻴﻫاﻮﮔ ﻪﻴﻬﺗ زا ﻞﺒﻗ ﻲﻣ
ﺮﻴﻣو گﺮﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ رد ﺮﺛﻮﻣ ﻞﻣاﻮﻋ ناﻮﺗ
ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ ثداﻮﺣ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺖﺴﻧاد
. ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳا ﻒﻌﺿ طﺎﻘﻧ زا
ﻲﻣ ﻪﻘﺒﻃ دﻮﺟو مﺪﻋ ناﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻠﻋ درﻮﻣ رد ﺢﻴﺤﺻ يﺪﻨﺑ
ﺖﺴﻧاد نﺎﻴﻓﻮﺘﻣ تﻼﻴﺼﺤﺗ و تﻮﻓ .
سﻼﻛ يراﺰﮔﺮﺑ ﺎﺑ يﺎﻫ
ﻲﺷزﻮﻣآ
ﻲﻨﺳ هوﺮﮔرد داﺮﻓا رد 20
ﺎﺗ 29 ياراد و داﻮﺴﻴﺑ داﺮﻓا و لﺎﺳ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ يﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺮﻄﺧ ضﺮﻌﻣ رد ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳاﺪﺘﺑا تﻼﻴﺼﺤﺗ زوﺮﺑ ناﻮﺗ
گﺮﻣ و ﺮﻴﻣ داد ﺶﻫﺎﻛ هوﺮﮔ ﻦﻳا رد ﺰﻴﻧ ار .
ﺮﻜﺸﺗ و ﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ
ناﻮﻨﻋ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻣﺎﻧ نﺎﻳﺎﭘ زا ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳا
"
ثداﻮﺣ ﺪﻧور ﻲﺳرﺮﺑ
لﺎﺳ ﻲﻃ نآ زا ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺮﻴﻣو گﺮﻣ و ﻲﻜﻴﻓاﺮﺗ يﺎﻫ
1390 - 1385 رد
دﺰﻳ نﺎﺘﺳا
"
ﻲﺳﺎﻨﺷرﺎﻛ ﻊﻄﻘﻣ رد
يژﻮﻟﻮﻴﻣﺪﻴﭘا ﺪﺷرا ﻲﻣ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .
مزﻻ دﻮﺧ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳا نﺎﮔﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻲﻣ
ﻧاد رد ﻪﻛ يداﺮﻓا ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ زا ﺪﻨ
ﺪﻨﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﻲﻧادرﺪﻗ و ﺮﻜﺸﺗ ﺪﻧدﺮﻛ يرﺎﻜﻤﻫ ار ﺎﻣ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳا .
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48
لﺎﺳ رد مﻼﻳا نﺎﺘﺳا ناﺪﻨﻤﻟﺎﺳ ﻲﺘﺷاﺪﻬﺑ يﺎﻫزﺎﻴﻧ و ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﺖﻴﻌﺿو ﻲﺳرﺮﺑ 1391
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49
ﻪﻣﺎﻨﻫﺎﻣود دﺰﻳ ﺖﺷاﺪﻬﺑ هﺪﻜﺸﻧاد ﻲﺸﻫوﮋﭘ ﻲﻤﻠﻋ
Trend of Traffic Accidents and Deaths in Yazd Within 2007-2012 Mirzaei M(Ph.D)1, Mahdavi M(MS.c)2, Fallahzade H(Ph.D)3, Montazer M(MS.c)4
1. Assistant Professors, Department of Statistics and Epidemiology Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran
2. Msc in Epidemiol, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran
3. Associate Professors, Department of Statistics and Epidemiology Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran
4. Msc in Structural Engineering
Abstract
Introduction: Traffic accidents (T.A) are introduced as the second cause of mortality after cardiovascular diseases in Iran as well as third causes after cardiovascular disease and cancer in the developing countries. Iran about 25000 persons per year and 70 persons per day have been due to T.A.
Regarding the increasing growth of population and number of transport vehicles as well as the high prevalence of T.A in all over the country specifically in Yazd, this study intended to evaluate the mortality trend caused by T.A in five years period.
Methods: This retrospective study was based on the information of the accident registration system using the statistics form of Yazd emergency medical services, accident management center, forensic center and Rahvar police. The sample size was determined via Census method all of the mortality cases of T.A(n=2492). The study data were gathered from the information of the registration forms of the dead and injured, and then was analyzed by SPSS software (ver,16). In fact, mortality trend caused by T.A was reported via Regression Poisson model.
Results: Regarding T.A mortality cases by T.A, the mortality rate has been decreased from 47.3% in 2007 to 33.7% in 2012.The majority of death cases were resulted from head trauma that have been decreased from 79.9% in 2007 to 62.3% in 2012.
Conclusion: The study findings revealed that since traffic Accidents' trend is decreasing, implementing traffic laws and regulation from one side and building a goog culture from another side are probably regarded as the main cause of decreasing accidents' trend during 2007-2012.
Keywords: Mortality; Traffic Accident; Trend,
