CO sfl KY THUAT HA TANG • NANG LUONG • MdlTRUflNG
NHffNG CONG NGHE NANG LlTOfNG Mtfi - C 0 SOf CUA SU DA DANG HOA NGANH NANG LlTdNG THE Gitfl VA
DAM DAO AN NINH NANG LU0NG TOAN CAU
N G U Y E N LY T I N H
Nang cao hieu suat cac nguon nang luong hien co, dp dyng cdc cong nghe hieu qud ndng luong coo, tdng ty le cdc nguon ndng luong tdi tgo, tdng nhanh cdc cong trinh nghien cuu trien khoi nhung cong nghe hydrogen vo pin nhien lieu, nhang the he moi ve cdc nguon dien, cdc phuong tien giao thong thdn thien vdi moi trudng, phdt trien cong nghe hgt nhdn hien dgi, su dyng tong hgp cdc nguon ndng lugng, gidm phe lieu hogc khdng phe lieu... Tat cd nhung phuong huong do se gdp phan quan trong vdo viec ddm bdo on ninh ndng lugng todn cau.
T
rong giai doan hien nay su phdt trien ciia n i n kinh te t h i gidi ndi chung dang the hien xu t h i tang trudng, ddng thdi lai cd su khdng ddng d i u ddng ke giira cdc khu vuc. Mdt mat, dang gia tang cdc qud trinh todn c l u hod, diln ra su hinh thanh cdc thj trudng t h i gidi y l nhien lieu ndng lupng. Mat khdc, dang diln biln manh me nhumg qud trinh khu vuc hod, dd xuit hien nhung nudc dang phdt trien mdi ciia chdu A, My La Tinh, nhumg nude nay trd thdnh cdc nude tieu thu dang ke cdc hdng hod va djch vu, trude hit thudc ITnh vuc ndng lupng. Dang ket thuc giai doan ciia cac nudc tir qud dp sang kinh t l thj trudng.T i t ca nhimg xu t h i dd dUdc minh hoa tren hinh 1, trong dd thdy rd ring vdi su tdng trudng GDP todn the gidi trung binh Id 3,1% phin ciia cdc nudc edng nghiep phdt trien trong GDP todn t h i gidi tir 70% ndm 1990 da giam xudng tdi 62% ndm 2000.
Xu t h i dd se cdn tilp tuc, ddn tdi phin cua cdc nudc dd trong GDP todn t h i gidi nam 2030 giam xudng tdi 45%. Ddng thdi cdc nudc dang phdt trien cung chimg td su tang trudng ddng ke (chii yeu Id cdc nudc ciia chdu A) trong cdch bieu thj tuyet ddi cung nhu tuong ddi.
CDI* IOHHUK i,Kn
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CbAa.A.
'Chan Phi. Can Dong
•My I.a Tinli
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1990 <iOOf^ PO 0 /!" •" ?0^0 Nai
Hinh 1: GDP toan thg gidi
Su phat trien kinh t l lien quan chat che vdi su tang trudng dan sd, su phdt trien nay vdi mure tdng trudng ddn sd chung todn t h i gidi 1% mdt nam cd
NGUdl XAY DUNG SO THANG 1&2 • 2011
tinh khdng ddng nhdt ldn hem d cdc khu vuc so vdi su phdt trien kinh t l . Tong dan sd todn d u se tang tir 6,1 ty ngudi ndm 2000 len tdi 8,2 ty ngudi vao ndm 2030, trong dd s l lUdng dan s l chii y l u va mure tdng trudng dan sd Idn nhdt se thudc cdc nudc chdu A, chdu Phi vd My La Tinh (hinh 2).
Sir tang trmma rfS" sn *t»^ *!'<>'* %
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l<Wf> ?Dn(3 ^C'O ZQ2tJ '0 0 Niim S590 ?00!1 2010 20Z0 2030 Nam
Hinh 2: Tang trUflng dan s6 thg gidi
Dilu dd^ se ldm tang tinh trang m i t can d l i ciia su phdt trien t h i gidi vd nay sinh hdng loat cac ylu t l tieu cue, ke ca trong ITnh vuc ndng lUdng.
Su phat trien kinh t l t h i gidi true tilp dupe xac djnh bdi miTc dam bdo ndng lUdng cho n i n kinh t l . NhOmg nudc phdt trien cao, trudc h i t id nhumg nudc vdi suit tieu thu nang lUdng ldn nhit (tinh tren diu ngudi vd tren ddn vj GDP). Xu t h i chii y l u Id sutdng trudng ddng ke mirc tieu thu ndng lugng ciia toan t h i gidi - tdng them 40-50% vdo ndm 2030, trong khi dd nhjp dp tang trudng ngdy nay Id 2,5% mot ndm, tire la cao hdn trong giai doan 1990-2000, khi nhjp dp do Id 1,1% mdt nam.
Mac ddu su mong muln cua cdng ddng t h i gidi Id d n khan cap chuyen sang n i n kinh t l phat thai it carbon, thay doi nhanh chdng he thing t h i gidi v l tilt kiem ndng lupng. Cdc chuyen gia danh gid ring d i n ndm 2030, 79% mirc tieu thu cae ngudn nang lupng Sd d p ciia todn t h i gidi se vdn Id nhien lieu khodng san.
Tinh khdng ddng nhit cua su phdt trien kinh t l
NHffNG CONG NGHE NANG lUaNG MQfl.
thuc t l Id ban sao chep ciia mifc tieu thu nang lupng theo khu vuc vd tinh tren d i u ngudi. Nhumg nude edng nghiep ed tren 5 i l n vUdt trdi v l mifc tieu thu nang lupng so vdi cac nudc dang phdt trien. Tren 2 ty ngudi tren hdnh tinh ehua dUdc tilp cdri cdc hinh thai hien dai eiia ndng lupng. SU phdt trien tilp tuc cua hp se khdng the dupc dam bao nlu khdng dam bao eung cdp ndng lupng cho hp.
Vdn d l da nhdy cdm hon nhilu Id an ninh ndng lupng diln ra do tinh khdng ding d i u theo khu vuc eiia ede ngudn ndng lupng ehinh: d i u md, khi thien nhien, than, uranl (hinh 3). NhOmg nudc tieu thu chinh cdc nguIn nang lupng Id nhijng nudc nhap khau chimg, dp ddi ciia cdc hdnh trinh cung cdp ndng lupng da tdng nhanh dang ke, dang nay sinh nhQng khdi nguyen ciia sir mit dn djnh xa hoi, nhirng xung dot too ngudi trong nhung nude xuit khau cdc ngudn ndng jUdng. Yeu t l trpng y l u larn trim trpng them v i n d l an ninh ndng lupng Id mdi de doa eiia chii nghTa khiing b l .
Khi nhien lieu
21% Dau mo
Than
Kang lumig nguydn lii
7%
Thuy nang ' 2% '^
Cac nguon nang liwng \l 1 %
khac, kc ca dia nhiet, NhCrng nguon nang luomg mat trcri, gio va nhiing phe lieu diroc dot
Hinh 3: Mile tieu thu nang IUdng so c3p tren thg gicil.
Hdu qua cua nhumg xu t h i dd Id tdc ddng gia tang cua con ngudi d i n mdi trudng xung quanh, nhdn t l quan trpng nhit trong dd Id su ndng len todn clu do su phdt thai cdc khi nhd kinh gdy ra.
Tren 80% cdc phdt thai khi nhd kinh thudc v l ngdnh ndng lupng, phin cdn lai chii y l u thudc ngdnh giao thdng van tai. Phdt thai khi COg - khi
"nhd kinh" chinh d i n ndm 2030 se g i p hon 2 i l n mirc ndm 1990 (tir 21 len 45 gigatonn" CO2). C d c l u eiia cdc phdt thai dd theo khu vuc Id khd ddc thii.
Trong khi cdc nudc phat trien (trudc h i t cdc nude chdu Au) ngudi ta du bdo su tang cdc phdt thai d i n ndm 2030 them 18% thi cdc nude dang phdt trien se tang cdc phdt thai ciia hp them 200350%. Nhumg nude dang phdt trien chilm vj tri dac biet nhuTrung Quic vd dn Op (hinh 4). Nhim dam bao t i c dp phdt trien kinh t l nhanh, nhumg nudc ndy dang ra sire
"din diu" y l phdt thai khi CO2.
Cdng ddng t h i gidi trong khudn kho chuan bj cho
C5^/^^ tai vun trSn^ ax^ kim thiirc
^wm^ ki ^M hdi cfud thdnh cSnq.
Minh Ngoc
1990 2000 2010 -•— Cac nm'rv EC •••-
— My -«— An Do
Hinh 4: Phat thSi khi CO,
2020 2030 Nhci t Bdn
Trung Quae
cudc gap gd thupng dinh "G8" d Saint Peterburg thdng 7/2006 da nhan djnh cdc bien phap hien dai v l dam bdo an ninh nang lupng toan c l u trong 3 hudng chinh:
+ Dam bao n i n kinh t l t h i gidi mdt each tin eay vd hieu qua bdng cdc nguIn nang lupng hydrocar- bon truyin thing.
+ Da dang hod viec cung d p ndng lupng nhd cdc ngudn ndng lupng mdi.
+ Nang cao hieu qua sir dung ede ngudn nang lupng.
Su da dang hod cung d p nang lupng nhd eae ngudn ndng lUdng mdi vd ndng cao hieu qua sir dung cdc ngudn ndng lupng dUa tren ca sd phat trien cdc cdng nghe ndng lupng mdi dupe phat minh.
^ Trong cdc " k l hoach hanh ddng" eiia nhdm G-8 v l dp dung khoa hpc vd ede edng nghe nham phat trien b i n vung da dupe thdng qua tai cdc Hdi nghj thupng dinh (G-8) ndm 2003 vd phat trien them nam 2004 da xac dinh nhung phucng hudng ehii y l u v l phat trien nhumg cdng nghe nang lupng;
- Ndng cao hieu qua ciia cac ngudn nang lupng hien hifu bang cdch pho biln va dp dung nhimg cdng nghe ndng luong hieu qua tien tien ed can nhic den su d n thiet giam tdc ddng eua eon ngudi den mdi trudng xung quanh.
- Tdng ty le cdc ngudn ndng lupng tai tao trong sir tieu thu nang lUdng todn t h i gidi.
- Tang nhanh nhumg edng trinh nghien ciru trien khai trong Unh vUc nhumg cdng nghe hydrogen va pin nhien lieu.
- Nghien ciru nhimg cdng nghe hieu qua va saeh ve sinh thdi trong sir dung cdc dang nhien lieu khoang vdi viec dp dimg cac he thdng lien kit (ghep) carbon.
- Nghien curu trien khai cdc phuong tien van tai t h i he mdi, cdc d i u diesel vd dau diesel sinh hoc
NGUdl XAY DUNG SO THANG 1&2 • 2011
NHffNG CONG •"'-"^ " ' ^ R iiff|fNG M^L sach ve sinh thdi.
- Nang cao hieu suat ede thiet bi sir dung dien va dien tir.
- Phat trien nhumg cdng nghe hat nhdn hien dai (ddi vdi eae nudc phat trien ndng lupng hat nhdn).
- Sir dung tong hpp eae tai nguyen, dam bao giam eae phe lieu san xuit, che biln chimg de tai sir dung va tan dung nang lupng chip nhan dupc v l sinh thai va nang lupng.
Can hieu ring viec dua ra thj trudng nhtmg edng nghe mdi vd hodn thien ddi hdi thdi gian ddi. Viee thay doi eae he thdng nang lupng eu bing ede he thdng hien dai hon phai mit tir 20 d i n 50 nam. Dilu dd ddi hdi tdc dp tdi da eho viec dp dung nhumg edng nghe hien dai cho ra thj trudng de nhdn dupe hieu qua kinh t l va nang lupng, tao ra nhimg tiln d l eho nhimg hoan thien edng nghe mdi. De dat dupe dieu dd can phai ket hdp ede nd lue ve kinh te, ve quy che vd ve ehinh trj.
1. Nang cao hieu qua nang lugng va tii nguyen trong khai thde, van ehuyen, c h l biln va sir dung cdc nguIn hydrocarbon. Nhiem vu quan trpng Id nghien ciru tiem ndng ciia cac ngudn hydrocarbon nhim tang manh nhumg trif lupng nhien lieu hydro- carbon nhd ede phuong phdp hien dai v l thdm dd dua tren cac phUdng phap hien dai tham dd tir vu tru, tren khdng vd tren mat dit cimg vdi sir dung cdc md hinh 3 chieu.
2. Khai thic, van chuyen va sd dung khf thien nhien hoa long (KTL). Tren t h i gidi dang phdt trien manh thi trudng sir dung KTL (khoang 15% mdt ndm). Can nhac nhumg han che ve doanh Ipi kinh te ciia su van chuyen khi bdng dudng dng di xa, viec thanh lap thj trudng KTL - mdt trong nhimg v i n d l mlu ehdt ciia ngdnh khi khdng nhung cho thj trudng ben ngoai, ma ea cho thj trudng ndi dja. Thi du, trong thj trudng ndi dja KTL cd the trd thdnh vdt tai ndng lupng hieu qua ddi vdi cdc hd tieu thu khdng tilp can dupe ede dudng Ing d i n khi chinh, cho cdc he thing van tai (tren mat dit, dudng sdt, hang khdng).
Can phdt trien ede he thing lam lanh hieu suit cao eho viec hod Idng khi, bdo qudn Idu ddi, cdc he thdng van tai an todn, saeh ve sinh thdi.
3. Kham pha tiim Idc cac ngudn hydrocarbon phi truyin thing. Su can kiet cdc ngudn hydrocarbon bude phai tang cudng tim kiem cdc ngudn hydro- carbon phi truyin thing. Thi du, d Nga cd tilm luc ddng ke khi methane eiia cdc via than, theo ddnh gia ciia ede ehuyen gia, tiem luc nay dat tdi 30% trif lupng khi thien nhien. Tiem lue ddng ke ve nguyen lieu va nang lupng dang dupe sir dung: dd la "khi ddng hdnh" trong qua trinh khai thac dau md. Nudc Nga la mdt trong nhimg nudc "ddt" khi ding hdnii (mdi nam ddt tdi 12-15 ty m' dimg thir 2 tren t h i gidi!). "Khi ddng hdnh" cd the sir dung cd hieu qua nhu mdt ngudn nguyen lieu vd ndng lupng quan trpng. Trong tuong lai cd the sir dung cdc khi hydrat.
Su phdt trien nhumg cdng nghe sir dung cdc
ngudn hydrocarbon phi truyin thdng se cho ptiep giam nhe ddng ke tinh trang edng thang cua van de can kiet ede ngudn hydrocarbon hien hCru.
4. Sd dung td'ng hop nhien lieu rin , _ Nudc Nga Id mpt trong nhung cudng quoc than tren t h i gidi. Than hien chilm va chae chan se duy tri mire 25% trong edn ddi ndng lupng the gidi. ^
Tuy nhien viee sir dung than ddi hdi nhung cong nghe hien dai, sach v l mat sinh thai. Trong nganh nang lUdng: do Id'dit than vdi Idp sdi tuan hoan (cir- culating', fluidizea bed) nhumg cdng nghe khi hoa than vdi ehu trinh khi - hai thiep theo va nhimg cong nghe dua tren su sir dung cdc thdng sd hdi sieu tdi han. Vide sir dimg nhien lieu than - nUde cd tiem luc Idn trong tuong lai. . _
Nhumg nude "G - 8" trong khudn khd dien dan Quic t l v l "thu hdi" carbon dang ra sire nghien cifu triln khai nhCmg cdng nghe dua COg ra khdi chu trinh ndng lupng eiia '1han" va tilp dd "luu giui'\ ) nd lau dai. Ngay nay dang xem xet nhung sang kiln ciia My vd Lien minh chau Au ve hdp tac quic t l trong viec xay dung nhd may nhiet dien khdng phat thai CO2.
5. Tiit kiem ning luang trong he thong tieu thu Phdt trien nhumg cdng nghe ndng cao hieu qua sir dung nang lupng, c h l tao cdc thilt bj va may mdc tren cd sd nhumg cdng nghe dd.
6. Nhdng ngudn nang lugng tai tao vi trien vgng phat trien chung:
- Phdt trien thuy dien nhd d cdc dja phucng.
- Phdt trien ndng lup'ng sinh khdi.
- Phdt trien ndng lupng dia nhiet.
- Phdt trien ndng lupng gid, mat trdi, sdng, thuy trilu...
- Phdt trien nhien lieu sinh hpc cho cdc phuong tien van tai.
7. Nang lugng nguyen tu' an toin vdi chu trinh nhien lieu khep kfn.
Ngdnh ndng lUdng nguyen tir hien dai vdi sudam bao van hdnh an toan vd xd ly hieu qua nhien lieu hat nhan da sir dung vd cdc p h i lieu phdng xa la bo phan quan trpng ciia he thing ndng lupng qude gia.
PhUdng hudng quan trpng ciia su phdt trien ngdnh ndy Id tao ra chu trinh nhien lieu hat nhdn khep kin, dam bao hiieu suit sir dung nhien lieu hat nhdn d mure cao nhit.
8. Nang lugng rndi (Hydrogen, nhiet hach) Nhumg ndm g i n ddy viec sir dung hydrogen trong ngdnh ndng lUdng da phdt trien manh. Dd la viec che tao cdc ngudn ndng lugng "xdch tay", cac pin nhien lieu cho cdc phuong tien van tai, c h l tao cdc he thing ndng lupng vd van tai edng suit Idn bing hydrogen (hdng khdng, ky thuat, ten lira, ngdnh ndng lupng). Theo ddnh gid eua eae ehuyen gia, trong giai doan 2010-2020 t h i gidi se ehuyen tif cdc dudn trinh diln sang sir dung hydrogen quy md cdng nghiep.
Cdc cdng trinh c h l tao Id phan img nhiet hach dang tilp tuc, cho phep trong trien vpng 30-40 nam
NGUdl XAY DUNG SO THANG 1&2 • 2011
NHffNG CONG NGHE NANG Ll/CfNG MOfl.
nOra khai thdc dupe nguIn ndng lupng ldn ndy Nhtmg nudc tham gia to hop qupe te (EC, My, Nhdt, Trung Quic, Nga, Han Quic, An Dp) v l xdy dung Id phan umg nhiet hach thi nghiem Qude t l (ITER) tai Kadarache (f^hdp) da ky Hiep nghj v l elp kinh phi eho du dn nay khii lupng 10 ty Euro.
9. Phat trien cac he thing van tai hieu qua va sach ve sinh thai
Su phdt trien cdc he thing ndy se theo hudng sir dung nhifng nhien lieu hieu qud vd sach v l sinh thdi hon (khi thien nhien, nhien lieu sinh hoc, hydrogen), chl tao cdc thiet bj ddng cd hieu suat cao (nhumg pin nhien lieu vd cdc he thing phire hpp).
LTnh vuc ndy ddc biet quan trpng trong bdi canh he thing van tai Id hd tieu thu chinh dau md toan t h i gidi (chilm 2/3 tong tieu thu d i u md).
10. Ap dung nhiing cdng nghe nano trong nganh nang lugng.
Su phdt trien nhung cdng nghe nano Id phin tir cd tinh "cdch mang" ciia su phdt trien khoa hpc va ede edng nghe. Trong ngdnh ndng lupng, viee sir dung cdc d u true nano vd cdc vat lieu nano se cho
phep dat dUde cac thdng s l hoat ddng va cac kha nang ve elu true dam bao budc nhay vot v l chit lupng trong hieu suat eiia eae he thing nang lupng truyin thing va mdi.
Dd trude het la ede he thdng mang va xiic tac:
chimg cho phep dam bao bude nhay vpt v l chit lupng trong nganh hod diu, cac c l u triic nano dac biet; chiing cho phep dam bao hieu qua kinh t l va tai nguyen ciia nganh nang lupng hydrogen.
Trong dieu kien canh tranh qudc t l gay gat, su phdt trien kinh te eua d i t nude chii y l u phai dupe xdc djnh tren ed sd ede tilm luc khoa hpc va edng nghe eiia minh, trong dd trudc mit theo hudng Uu tien "phat trien ngdnh ndng lupng va tilt kiem nang lupng" vd hang loat ede edng nghe hien dai.G
* / gigatonn = 10^ tonn (ty tin)
** Trong thuat ngd quoc ti sd "thu hdi" carbon con dddc ggi la "tich thu" carbon sdldu gid "carbon" dddc goi la "chon cat" carbon
(Theo Tap chi Nang lifdng 5/2009)
XE BUYT KHOI Ll/dNG LQfN VAN CHUYEN NHANH (BRT)
(Tiep theo trang 31)
carig di sdu vdo trung tdm thdnh phi, vdi nhimg khiic giao ngln vd hep thi chile xe buyt menh danh
"sieu ddi" ndy duong nhien khdng the di chuyen de dang vd chuyen un tic Id khdng the trdnh khdi, ehua ke din tai nan giao thdng cung de xay ra.
Cin phai ndi ring, vi nhilu nguyen nhdn khdc nhau, viec thir nghiem xe buyt khdp n i i - tiln d l eiia buyt nhanh khii lupng Idn (BRT) tren dudng Hd Ndi iln nay ehua dupc thdnh cdng, song khdng the phu nhdn rang trong dilu kien hien nay, ddy v i n Id loai hinh van tai hdnh khdch cdng cong phu hpp nhit. Lam dudng sat cao t i c hay t l u dien ngdm diu rit t i n kem va m i t nhilu thdi gian.
De di d i n quylt djnh sir dung phuong thirc giao thdng ndo trong van tdi hdnh khdch cong cdng tai cdc dd thj khdng the chi cdn cir
vdo nhu cdu van chuyen cao, ndng luc tai chinh d i u tu md tren tdt ca la thuc trang cd sd ha tang tren cdc tuyin lua chpn. Cudc thir nghiem xe buyt khdp ndi vira qua tren tuyen Ndi Bdi - ben xe My Dinh da cho thdy rang vdi thuc trang giao thdng vd dudng sd Hd Ndi hien nay, chiing ta chua the dua BRT trd thdnh mdt phuong thifc van tdi hdnh khdch nhilu tinh ndng uu viet vao giao thdng cdng cdng Ha Ndi dup'c. Thilt nghT day cung Id mdt trong nhumg van de bifc xiic cho mdi ngudi dan Thu dd khi giao thdng Hd Ndi ngdy cdng trd nen hdn loan hdn, tdc nghen giao thdng hdng ngdy xay ra khdp tren cdc tuyin dudng va dang trd thdnh v i n nan, tieu t i n nhilu thdi gian va ciia cai ciia xa hdi, mdi trudng dd thj vi giao thdng md dang ngdy cdng bj anh hudng nghiem trpng.
Gan day, Dudn Phattrien giao thdng Hd Npi (BRT) do Trung tam Phdt trien b i n vOmg WB ehii tri da cd nhung cudc tiep xuc va lam viec UBND thdnh p h i Ha Ndi ve ehii truong xdy dung tuyen BRT bat dau tir ben xe Kim Ma den dudng Khudt Duy Tien (5,1km), Sd GTVT da cd kit qua tham dinh hd sa thiet ke ky thuat phan ket cdu mat dudng, to chirc giao thdng. Cdc ehuyen gia eiia WB da ciing vdi Sd GTVT, Ban QLDA Phdt trien GTOT cOng da thj sat todn tuyin BRT Kim Ma - Yen NghTa.
Tir viec thir nghiem hoat dpng ciia he thing xe buyt khdp nil - phuong tien BRT tren tuyin Bin xe My Dinh - Ndi Bdi, du an tuyin BRT Kim Ma - Yen NghTa cung can phdi dupc xem xet, ddnh gia ky ludng va xay dung dieu kien cd sd ha tang GTVT that tdt trudc khi dua nhumg chile xe buyt "khong ld"vao ehuyen ehd hdnh khdch trong giao thdng cdng cdng Ha Ndi nhtmg nam trudc mat. Dimg de eho du an BRT lap lai s l phan Du an Xe dien banh hdi nhumg nam cudi thdp ky 80 d Ha Ndi ciia t h i ky trudc. •
