NGAN H A N G - TAI CHINH - CHCfNG KHOAN
Dff bao can can vang lai Viet Nam nam 2012
PHAM TH| THU TRANG - DO VAN LAM
D6 THI 1. CAM CAN VANG LAI CUA CAC XiLidQ DANG PHAT TRI^N NAM 2010 (%GDP)
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. CAN C A N VANG LAI CCIA CAC Nt/CJC ASEAN N A M 2010 (%GDP)
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1 1
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10
Ngudn: ADB
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|di khodn vang lai (c6n gpi Id cdn can thanh todn vang lai) Id mpt bo phan quan trpng cua cdn can thanh todn ghi cbdp nhffng giao dich ve hdng hda vd dich vu giffa ngffdi cff tru trong nffdc vdi ngffdi cff tni ngo^i nffdc. Nhffng ndm gan day, cdn cdn vang lai cua Viet Nam thffdng xuyen thdm hut, anh hffdng tdi cdn can tdng the cung nhff cung cdu ngoai te.Chiing tdi dff bdo cdn can vang lai cua Viet Nam nam 2012 vdi mong mudn cdc nha hoach dinh chinh sdch co nhffng dieu chinh phu hdp de tim cdch gidm thdm hut trong thdi gian tdi.
I. Thrfc trang Cao cdn vang lai Vi^t Nam nhiing ndm vufa qua
Vi^t Nam Id mQt trong nhiing niidc co tdi khodn vang lai hi thdm hut
Ndm 2010, trong sd 26 thi tiirdng mdi ndi cd tdi 17 nffdc cd tham hut cdn can vang lai.
Mffc tiiam hut cua Viet Nam la 3,93% GDP, tiiy cd tiid'p h(»
mpt sd nffdc, nhffiig ti-ong khu vffc ASEAN mffc tiiam hut nay chi xep sau Campu chia
Ndm 2010 khong phai la
Tong qnan
Kinhte Xahoi
V i e t i^amt
50
sd 04 (2011)
nam Viet Nam cd mffc tiiam hut can can vang lai tiia'p nha't.
Tff nam 1990 cd 7 ndm can cdn vang lai tham hut hdn 5%
GDP, tiiam chi hai nam 1995 va 2009 cdn can vang lai tham hut tdi gdn 12% GDP. Giai doan 2007 tdi nay do dnh hffdng cua suy gidm kinh te tiie gidi, can can vang lai gidm manh tff mffc -0,3% ndm 2006 xud'ng -9,8% ndm 2007 vd xudng ddy -11,9% ndm 2008.
Tff ndm 2009 ty le tham hut can can vang lai so vdi GDP da cd phdn gidm bdt.
Vdi mdt nffdc cd dp md kinh te Idn, tdc dp tang trffdng kinh te' cao nhff Viet Nam, d giai doan ddu cua phdt trien.
tham hut tdi khodn vdng lai la dieu binh thffdng vd cdn thiet de cd cd hdi tan dung dffdc ngudn vd'n tff ben ngoai cho sff phdt trien kinh te. Tuy nhien, khi tham hut tai khodn vdng lai vffdt ngffdng 5% GDP se gdy rui ro cho nen kinh te.
Trong nhieu trffdng hdp, tham hut can can vdng lai the hien nen kinh te dang tdng trffdng td't, cd nhieu cd hdi ddu tff vdi Idi nhuan cao, nhu cdu ddu tff cao hdn khd ndng tie't kiem trong nffdc, dieu ndy se ldm cho cdc ddng vd'n nffdc ngodi chdy vdo qud'c gia dd de dap ffng nhu cdu ddu tiT. My Id qud'c gia tham hut tdi khodn vang lai trong nhieu thap ky do tham hut can can vang lai dffdc coi Id se giup cai thien can can thffdng mai cua nffdc nay trong tffdng lai. Ngffdc lai, khi tham hut tai khodn vang lai Idn vd keo ddi, md khdng cd cdc bien phap cdn thiet lam giam tham hut thi nen kinh te
cd nguy cd khung hodng (khung hodng nd hodc khung hodng tien te). Cupc khung hodng tien te ndm 1997 cua Thai Lan la mdt vi du. Do bi rdi vdo tinh trang thdm hut tdi khodn vang lai qua Idn, ciing vdi cdc khodn vay nd ngan ban khdng cd khd nang thanh todn, nen Thai Lan da khdng the giff gia dffpc ddng tien, dff trff ngoai bdi can kiet gay ra khung hoang.
Vdi Viet Nam, thdm hut tdi khodn vang lai didn ra thffdng
xuyen cung la mdt ddu hieu bdo ddng cho dn dinh kinh te vi md. Thdm hut cdn cdn vang lai tai Viet Nam lien quan trffc tiep den tham hut cdn can thffPng mai. Dd thi 4 cho thd'y dien bien can can vang lai vd cdc thdnh phan ben trong nd tff nam 2000 den 2010. Cd the tha'y mffc dp tham hut can can vang lai, xet theo gid tri tuyet ddi, cd xu hffdng trdm trpng, ddc biet trong nam 2008. Nam 2010, can can vdng lai van thdm hut tdi gan 5 ty USD.
DO THI 3. DIEN BIEN C A N C A N V A N G LAI CUA VIET N A M GIAI DOAN 1990-2010 (%GDP) SO
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Nguen: IMF
DO THI 4. DIEN BIEN CAN CAN VANG LAI CUA VIET NAM GIAI DOAN 2000-2010 (TRIECJ USD)
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• Can cSn dich vi) va thu nh5p
- Cjn cSn thi/ong m^i - Chuyen nhaong rong
NguOn: ADB
51
Tong ifuan
Kinh t e - X a hoi
Viet Nam
NGAN HANG - TAI CHirsH - CHCING KHOAM
DO THI 5. DIEN BIEN XUAl NIIAI' KHAU VII I NAM (igg."? 2010)
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Ngudn: T6ng eye ThO'ng kS
DO THI 6. TRI GIA X U A T KHAU HANG HOA THEO TIEU C H U A N NGOAI THaONG (TRIEU USD)
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Hang thCi ho3c mbi so ch? — HSng ch? biSn hcSc da linh chf
Ngufln: long eye Thong ke
DO THI 7. CO CAU XUAT K H A U HANG HOA THEO NHOM HANG {%)
200^
20 05 2 0 0 3 20 01 1.M5 1 9 r 15 5f
Hjng cOng nghijp njng vS lihoang san H^ng CN nhe v i HCN
n H;lng nOng san
• Hang ISm san
• Hang thuy s i n
OH 40S «0% I OS lOOK
Ngu6n: Tong cgc Thong ke
Song song vdi tham but cdn can vang lai Id tham hut cdn can thffdng mai vdi mffc dp thdm hut cao bdn cdn cdn vang lai. Cdn can vang lai dffdc gidm bdt tham hut nhd vdo ngudn vdn chuyen nhffdng rdng ngdy cdng tdng ben canh cdn can thu nhdp vd dich vu c6 xu hffdng tdng.
Vdi nhffng dien bien tren, cd the tha'y d Viet Nam tiiam but cdn cdn thffdng mai 1^
nguyen nhan chinh cua tiiam hut cdn can vdng lai.
Di^n bi^'n cdn cdn thiAfng mgigiaidogn 1995-2010
Tff ndm 1995-2010, xuat nhdp khau bdng hda cua Viet Nam lien tuc tdng (ngoai triif ndm 2009 kim ngach gidm do dnh hffdng cua suy gidm kinh te todn cdu) vdi tdc dp tang xua't khau trung binh la 21,2%/nam vd nhap khau la
19.5%/ndm. Mac du tdc do tdng xudt khau trung binh cao bdn tdc dp tang nhdp khau trung binh. nhffng cdn can thffdng mai lien tuc thdm hut tif ndm 1993 tdi nay.
Ndm 1995 kim ngach xuat khau bdng hda cua Viet Nam mdi dat 5,4 ty USD vd nhap khau dat 8,2 ty USD. Tdi nam 2010, kim ngach xua't khau la 72,2 ty USD vd nhap khau 84,8 ty USD. Theo do, ty trong tiiffdng mai cua Viet Nam so vdi thffdng mai tiie gidi da tang len tff mffc 0,1% nam 1995 len 0,45% ndm 2010 (vdi xuat khau) vd 0,155% len 0,55%
(vdi nhdp khau).
Cd cd'u xua't khau cd chuyin bien tich cffc, ddc biet tjd nam 2002 trd lai day gia tii xu^t khau cua hang che^ bien, tinh
T6ng q n a n
Kinhte Xahoi
V i e t Nam
52
so OA (2011)
che cao hdn hang tiid hodc sd che. Dieu nay cd dffpc la do sff md rdng cua cdc sdn pham cdng nghiep, nha't la cdng nghiep nhe, ti:ong cd ca'u xua't khau vd ty trpng nhdm hang ndng, lam, thuy sdn cd xu hffdng thu hep. Cu tiie, nhdm hang ndng sdn vd lam sdn chiem khodng 35% kim ngach xua't khau ndm 1995 gidm cdn mdt nffa xud'ng mffc 16,3% vao nam 2010. Nhdm hang thuy san cung giam tff mffc 11,4%
xud'ng 7%. Nhdm hdng cdng nghiep nhe vd thu cdng my nghe chiem 45% ndm 2010.
nam 1995 con sd ndy mdi la 28,4%. Ddng gdp vdo mffc tang ty trpng ndy Id sff phdt trien cua ngdnh gidy dep (kim ngach tdng 20,58%, giai doan 1995- 2009), det may (tang 19,3%), hdng thu cdng my nghe (tdng 23,3%) vd bdng dien tff, mdy tiunh va linh kien (tang 15%, giai doan 2000-2009).
Cd ca'u nhap khau khdng cd nhieu thay ddi. Tuy ty le bang tieu dung nhdp khau da giam, nhffiig ty trpng cua nhdm hdng nguyen, nhien vat lieu khdng thay ddi nhieu, va van chie^m ty le Idn nha't (khodng 60%).
Ty trpng cua nhdm hang mdy mdc, tiiiet bi, dung cu, phu tung tang td 25,7% (nam 1995) len 29,3% nam 2010. Nhff vay, nhdm hang tff heu sdn xua't chie'm tdi 90% tdng kim ngach nhap khau. Dieu dd cho tiia'y sff phu thudc vao nhap khau tiiiet bi cdng nghiep vd nguyen Ueu; phan dnh trinh dp phdt trien cdng nghiep thd'p vd khd nang canh tranh yeu kem cua nhdm hang vat tff.
Xet theo tieu chuan ngoai
DO THI 8. C O C A u NHAP K H A U H A N G HOA THEO N H O M H A N G (%)
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D May moc, IhiSt bi. dung cu.
phg lung
• NguyCn, nhifin, vjt Ii5u
• Hang li§u dung
v.: 10 0%
Ngu6n: Tong ei^e Thong ke
DO THI 9. TR! GIA N H A P K H A U H A N G H O A T H E O TIEU C H U A N NGOAI T H U O N G (TRIEU USD)
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Hang tho hay mdi so che — Hang che bi^n ho5c da tinh ch6'
Ngudn; Tong eye Thong ke
BANG 1. CAN CAN THClCfNG MAI THEO NHOM S A N PHAM
T6NG S 6 Hang thd hoac m ^ sd cYi^{l) LiAAig thifc, thifc phfm vk ddng vit sdng Dd udng vk thudc M
NVL thd, khdng diing &i ftn, trCf nhidn lifiu NMeu HSu, diu m9 livOa vk v&t li&u li&n quan DIU, m9, ch^t b6o, sip ddng, thiJfc v£t Hang ch&' bi^n hoac da tinh ch^T (2) Hoi ch^t \k sin phfm lidn quan Hkng ch^bi^n phftn loai theo nguydn lidu Miy mdc, phiftftig tien van tii vi phu tting Hingchd'bi^nkhic
1995 -2706,4
1749,6 1684,3 -75,9 -86,4 309 -81,2 -4456,1 -1254,3 -116,2 2253,9 214,1
2000 -1153,8
4551,2 315,3
-84 -206,8 1703,7 -14,7 -5703,7 -2243,2 -249,1 -343,5 2465,5
2005 -431,4 6792,5 4390,5 25,8 -394,1 2992,3 -170,4 -10292,1 -4773,9 -8006,8 -6107,2 8595,8
2009 -12852^
5925,3 6883,4 -103,8 -1460,2 1009,7 -403,8 -19217,8 -895,5 -12551,4 -14509,2 16797,8 Ngufin: Tdng eye Thefng kg
53
-•••iiak-
T«>ng qnau
Kinh t e - X a hoi
Viet Nam
N Q A N H A N G - TAI CHilSH - CHtTNG KHOAM
thffdng, nhdm hdng che bien hodc da tinh che nhdp khau van chie'm gid tri Idn. Khodng cdch giffa kim ngach nhdp khau hdng che bid'n hodc da tinh che vdi hdng thd hodc mdi sd che ngdy cdng dan rpng.
Tuy cdn can thffdng mai t6ng the lien tuc thdm hut, nhffhg vdn cd nhffiig nhdm sdn ph^m cd thdng dff thffdng mai. Dd Id nhdm hdng thd bode mdi sd che (1) vdi mffc thdng dff 5,9 ty USD ndm 2009. Tuy nhidn, cdn can thffdng mai tong the thdm hut do lien tuc nhdp sieu hdng che bien hodc dd tinh che (2) vdi mffc thdm but gd'p tff 1,5 tdi 3,3 lin mffc thdng dff cua nhdm hang thd hoac mdi sd che. Ndm
1995, nhdm hdng che bien hodc da tinh che nhdp sieu 4,5 ty USD va tang len 19,2 ty USD nam 2009. Xet dieo nhdm sdn pham nhd, hang che bien khac la nhdm duy nhd't thudc nhdm (2) xua't sieu va nhdm (1) cd hai nhdm hdng xuat sieu la Iffdng thffc, thffc pham va dpng vat song vd nhien lieu, dau md nhdn va vat lieu lien quan.
Ty le nhdp khau Id cd'u phan trong xua't khau cdn rd't cao, chiem khoang 2/3 gid xud't xffdng. Hdng hod xua't khau chffa da dang nen de bi dnh hffdng tieu cffc khi cd sff bien dpng Idn ve gid hdng hod cung nhff bid'n ddng trong nhu cau d thi trffdng nffdc ngodi. Ngodi ra, theo nhdm tdc gid tren, hp so' dong bien giffa xua't khiu vd nhap khiu la 99,7% cho tha'y chung ta phai nhdp khau di san xua't phuc vu sdn xua't.
Chinh vi vay mpi bien phap lam tang chi phi cua hang nhap khau se giup ban che nhu cau
nhap khau, nhffng cCing sc anh hffdng tieu circ idi kha nang xuat khiiu ciia Vict Nam.
Chuyen nhUifng rdng Chuyen tiliu'diig rdng ciia Vict Nam lien luc thang (hr Iff nam l')9() M\ nay va la ngudn bii drip tham hul ihffcJng niai (|iiaii tipng.
Chuyen nlurpng rdng iff kiiu vffc tu' nhan cd ty trpng Idn nhai va tdc dp tang rat cao. Trff nam 2009 Iffpng chuyen nliffpng nay giam siit, cac nam cdn lai ngudn vdn nay Uing iff l9'/f den gan (^y/<\ Trong chuycMi nhffpng rdng tff khu vffc Iff nhan. kieu hdi la kcMih ngoai te manh quan trpng, vffa cung cap vdn cho phai trien, vffa giup tang Iffpng dff trff
ngoai hdi va giam tham hut can can vang lai va khdng tao ganh nang np nffdc ngoai cho ncMi kinh le. Dd thi 10 cho thay Iffcfng kieu hdi vao Viet Nam (la tanu clan qua cac nam. Nam
1999, Iffdng kieu hoi chiem 4,2% GDP thi nam 2002 con so nay da tang len 7,8% va nam 2010 lii khoang 7,7% GDP.
Theo cac chuyen gia, trong khi ddng gdp ciia ngudn vdn ho trd phat trien ( 0 [ 3 A ) , vd'n dau ti/
trffc tiep nffdc ngoai (FDI). von dau tff gian tiep nffdc ngoai (FII) vao can can thanh toan ngay cang khd khan thi kieu hdi van tang deu va doi dao.
Theo Ngan hang the gidi. nam 2010 Vict Nam dffng hang thii' 16/30 qudc gia tren the gidi co
BAMG2. CHUYEM MHaOMG ROMG CCJA V l f T NAM TCf MAM 2001-2010 (TRIEO USD)
Chuyen nhi/otng r o n g CNRtCr Ichu viTc tUnhan CNR ciiinh thufc
2001 1250
1100
l.'iO 2002 1921
1767
\^-\
2003 2239
2100
\y) WM 3093
2919
174 2005 3380
3150
230 2006 4049
3800
249 2007 6430
6180
250 2008 7311
6804
507
2009 1 2010
6448
6018
430 8661
8342
319
Ngudn: ADB
DO THI W. KIEU HOI CUA VI^T NAM (2000-2010)
1
2000 2001 2002 200J 2004 200S 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Ngufin: Tong eye Thong kS
Tong quail
Kinh t e - X a hoi
Viet Mam
54
S6 04 (2011)
Iffdng kieu hd'i chuyen ve nhieu nha't va nam 2011 xep trong nhdm 10 nffdc nhan dffdc kieu hd'i Idn nha't.
Nguon chuyen nhffdng rdng chinh thffc gom vd'n ODA chie'm ty le nhd vd cd xu hffdng gidm tff ndm 2009 do nhffng khd khdn cua kinh te die gidi.
n . Dd bao can cSn vang lai nam 2012
V i e c dff b d o cdc k h o d n m u c trong cdn c a n tdi k h o d n v a n g lai b e t sffc pbffc t a p v e sd' lieu vd phffdng p h d p . B d o c d o sff d u n g m d hinh xua't - n h d p k h a u t h e o chudi thdi gian k e t h p p vdi phffdng p h d p p h d n tich d n h hffdng m d t sd' nhdn to' n g a n b a n d e n c a n c a n thanh todn v d n g lai, nhff: tie't k i e m , t a n g trffdng kinh t e , t a n g trffdng cdc
dd'i tdc thffdng m a i , ty gid hd'i dodi, ty le trao ddi thffPng m a i , ty gia hd'i dodi, l a m phdt, lai sud't... d e dff b d o cdn can v a n g lai cua V i e t N a m n d m 2012.
Ve cdn cdn thUdng mai hdng hod:
Xudt khdu dffdc dff bdo' se tiep tuc tang trffdng do kinh te the gidi ndm 2012 dffdc dff bdo van tiep tuc da phuc hoi sau khung hoang. Nhffng mat hang xua't kha'u cua Viet Nam nhff dau tbd. than da, gao, cao su. gidy dep, det may... se cd thi trffdng tieu thu tffdng dd'i dn djnh. Tuy nhien. cung cdn nhieu yeu td' tdc ddng can ddng Iffu tdm. dd la:
Ap Iffc canh tranh hdng xua't khau tdng dan khi Viet Nam tiep tuc thffc hien cdc cam ket thffPng mai vdi WTO, ASEAN vd ASEAN-I-; xu hffdng bao hd
BANG 3: CAN CAN VANG LAI VIET NAM GIAI DOAN 2009 - 2010, dPC THCrc HIEN 2011 vA DCT BAO 2012 (TY USD)
Can cSn vang lai, trong do - Can can TM hang hoa - Can can dich vu - Thu nhap dau tif rong - Chuyen khoan rong
2008 -10,9 -12,80
-1,30 -2,43 7,20
2009 -6,12 -8,30 -1,20 -4,90 6,63
2010 -3,93 -7,67 -0,55 -4,20 7,20
2011 tfdc -3,87 -6,50 -1,17 -4,70 8,50
2012 DB -5,47 -8,02 -1,25 -5,20 9,00 Ngudn: NHNN, ADB, WB vh tfnh to^n cua Nh6m nghi§n cifu
h a n g hod sdn xua't trong nffdc cua cdc qud'c gia dd'i tdc do khd khdn trong qud trinh phuc hoi sau khung hodng; suy gidm c a o vd lam phdt, cung nhffng bien ddng chinh tri d nhieu khu vffc tren the gidi; dnh hffdng tff viec chinh sdch tien te thdt chat dd'i vdi sdn xua't cua cdc doanh nghiep trong nffdc ndi chung, se la nhffng nhdn to ldm dnh hffdng tieu cffc d e n xua't k h a u so vdi dff bdo.
Nhap khdu tff Trung Qud'c dffdc dff bao2 se v a n d mffc c a o khi Viet N a m chffa n d n g dffpc ndng life c a n h tranh vd da d a n g h d a cP ca'u san p h a m c u n g nhff chffa x a y dffng dffpc h d n g rdo ky thuat vdi h a n g h d a T r u n g Qud'c.
Viec thffc hien ngdy cdng day du vd sau rdng vao cdc hiep dinh thffdng mai song phffPng, da phffPng va khu vffc, ddc biet la H i e p dinh thffPng mai tff do A S E A N - T r u n g Qud'c, trong dieu kien cac doanh n g h i e p Viet N a m boat ddng k e m hieu qua, ndng Iffc canh tranh tha'p, la cd hdi d e h a n g hda nffdc ngodi nhd't Id tff Trung Qud'c x d m nhdp vdo thi trffdng Viet N a m ldm tang kim ngach n h a p khau cua Viet N a m .
(1) Md hinh dff bao kim ngach xuS't kh^u cua Vi^t Nam dff^c x&y dffng dffa trSn c^c biS'n sd' sau: TdV: dp tdng trifdng GDP thd' gidi (ky hi§u WGDP); Kim ngach xuS't khS'u hang hoa thd' gidri (WEX); Chi sd' gia hang hoa thd' gidi (WPI), bid'n sd' nay thay thd' cho Chi sd' gia xuS't kh^u hang hoa thd' gidi do khdng co du sd' Ii$u; Kim ngach nh§p kha'u hang hoa ciia kinh td' thd' gidi (WIMP); Ty gia VND/USD (ER); Chi sd' gia nh§p khS'u cua Vidt Nam (VIMP); Chi sd^gia xufi't khS'u cua Vi^t Nam (VIEX); FDI thffc hi$n ciia Vi$t Nam (FDI).
(2) Md hinh dtf bao kim ngach nhSp kh^u hang hda dtfc^c xSy dtfng trdn cac bid'n sd' sau:
T^ng tidu diing trong ntfdc (gja hi^n hanh, nghin ty d6ng): TCE Td'ng tich luy vd'n (gia hidn hanh, nghin ty d6ng): INV
Kun ngach xua't kha'u hang hda (gia hi^n hanh, tri$u USD): VEX Kim ngach nhap kha'u hang hda (gia hi$n hanh, tri$u USD): VIM
55
Tong qnau
Kinh t e - X a hoi
Viet i^am
C3n c6 cdc biOn phap gi^m tham hgt cAn can thuong m^i bSng each thay d6i cO ca'u xuat-nhap kh^u
Gia ca bang hda the gidi ndi chung van tiep tuc d mffc cao cung la mdt nhdn td' ldm tdng kim ngach nhdp khau hang hda cua Viet Nam trong nam 2012.
Viec gidm quy md sdn xua't cua doanh nghiep xua't kha'u do chinh sdch tien te that chat cung se lam gidm nhap kha'u.
Cdn cdn dich vu
Cdn can dich vu cung bi nhiirng dnh hffdng tffdng tff nhff cua cdn cdn diffpng mai hang hda, vdi mffc didm hut khodng 0,55 ty USD ndm 2010 va ffdc nam 2011 tham hut khoang 1,17 ty USD. Nhff vay, tuib tff ndm 2010 den ndm 2011 can can dich vu tang tham hut khoang 0,62 ty USD tffdng dffdng vdi mffc tang gan gap 2 lan.
Thu nhdp ddu tit vd chuyen khodn rong
Theo thd'ng ke cua Ngan hang The gidi (WB) ve kieu hd'i cua Viet Nam, Iffdng kieu hd'i cua ngffdi lao ddng chuyen ve nffdc ndm 2011 ffdc dat khoang 9 ty USD (so vdi mffc 7,2 ty USD nam 2010). Kieu hd'i tdng manh (so vdi ndm 2010) cd the dffpc gidi thich la do lai sud't tang cao trong ndm vffa qua, ngffdi lao ddng nffdc ngodi gffi tien ve de gffi tie't kiem nhieu bdn, dff bdo xu the nay se dffdc duy tri trong ndm 2012.
Vdi nbffng phan tich ve xu the, cdc tinh todn ve thu nhap tff dau tff ndm 2012 se thdm hut khodng 5,2 ty USD, chuyen khodn rdng khoang 9
ty USD. Nhff vay, can cdn vang lai Vi$t Nam 2012 se thdm hut khoang 5,47 ty USD (so vdi mffc 3,87 ty USD ndm 2011).
Thdm hut cdn can vang lai ndm 2011 ffdc tinh giam so vdi ndm 2010 do can can thffdng mai nam 2011 dffdc cdi thien, Tuy nhien, nam 2012 mffc thdm hut ndy dffpc dff bdo tdng len do xua't khau se khd khan hdn trong khi chffa the giam nhdp khau. Ve ddi ban, can co cdc bien phdp gidm thdm hut cdn can thffdng mai bang each thay doi cd ca'u xudt nhap khau. Mudn vay, can phdi thay doi cd ca'u kinh te'. Nam 2012 vd nhffng nSm sau dd, Viet Nam tiep tuc thffc hien cdc cam ket WTO vd cdc hiep dinh thffPng mai song phffdng va da phffdng khdc ben canh viec ky ket cdc hiep dinh mdi. Chung ta can tan dung cd bdi ndy de gia tang xua't khau, thu hut vd'n dau tff... de cai thien can can vang lai vd cdn can thanh todn. gdp phan on dinh kinh te vT md.Q
TAI LIgU THAM K H A O
Claudio Dordi vd cdng sff (2008), "Ddnh gid tdc dgng tdng the khi Viet Nam trd thdnh thdnh vien cua WTO den thay ddi xudt nhdp khdu vd the che" Bdo cdo trong khudn kho Dff dn Ho trd Thffdng mai da bien (MUTRAP III).
IMF, ''Balance of Payment Manual
Nguyen Ngpc Anh, Nguyen Thang, Nguyen Dffc Nhat vd Nguyen Cao Dffc (2008A "Thdm hut tdi khodn vdng lai: nguyen nhdn vd gidi phdp", Bdi viet cho Hdi thdo "Tinh hinh kinh te Viet Nam vd vai trd, trdch nhiem cua Qud'c hdi" trong khudn kho hdp tdc giffa Uy ban Kinh te Quoc hdi va Vien Khoa hpc vd Xa hdi Viet Nam, 2-3/7/2008 Mui N6, Phan Thiet.
Peter Naray vd cdng sff (2009), Bdo cdo ''Phdn tich thdm hut thuang mai cua Viet Nam vd cdc dieu khodn ve Cdn cdn thanh todn cda WTO", Bdo cdo trong khudn khd Dff dn Hd trd Thffdng mai da bien (MUTRAP ni).
Vien Nghien cffu va Quan ly Kinh te Trung ffdng (2010), "Tdc dong cda Hoi nhap kinh tequSc te ddi vdi kinh te sau ba ndm Viet Nam gia nhdp WTO"
T^ng quan
Kinh t e - X a hoi
Viet Nana
