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KINH TE V i e NAM NfiM 2011 Vfl TRI6N VONG NflM 20 m
MlTOl SU" KIEN KINH TE NOI BAT
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CUA VIET NAM NAM 2011
GS.TS Nguyen Ke Tuan, PGS.TS Le Quoc Hpi Dai hqc Kinh te Quoc ddn
Nam 2011, cac hogt dpng kinh te ciia Vi?t Nam dien ra trong boi cdnh co nhieu bien dpng bdl lai cd a Irong nudc vd quoc le. Ngdy 24/2/2011, Chinh phii da ban hdnh Nghj quyit so 11/2011/NQ-CP xdc djnh nhi?m vu trQng tdm Id lh\rc hi^n cdc bi^n phdp kiem che Jam phdt, on dinh kinh te v7 md vd ddm bdo an sinh xa hpi. Mac dii co sir chi dgo quyet li^t ciia Chinh phu vd no lire ciia cpng dong doanh nghibp, ben cgnh nhung kit qud lich circ, cung noi len nhiiu yeu kem, bdt cap dnh hu&ng lieu C{K din phdt trien sdn xudt - kinh doanh vd d&i song ddn cu.
Tren ca s& dien bien tinh hinh kinh te Fi^t Nam ndm 2011, bdi viit ndy chon loc vd tdng kit mu&i su ki^n kinh te noi bgt trong ndm. Tuy co nhiiu so liiu dua ra m&i chi Id nhung so lieu du bdo cua Chinh phii vd cdc bp, ngdnh, nhung dieu ndy khong dnh hu&ng din bdn chdt ciia su kien duac lua chon.
1. Kinh te dat toe do tang trirvng kha nhu-ng 6,4%. Tuy nhien, so vai nam 2010, tdc do tang thap hon ke hoach va chu-a co sir chuyen bien ro truang theo quy nam 2011 deu thap han. Dir bao ret ve chat Iirong tang truang GDP ca nam 2011 se a muc 5,8%, thip
Nam 2011, kinh te Viet Nam tiep tuc phuc hdi sau han co so muc tieu 6% ma Quoc hoi da dieu chinh tac dong Clia khung hoang kinh te toan cSu. Hinh 1 va thap han hSn muc 6,78% cua nam 2010. Viec cho thay co su cai thien nhe \h toe do tang GDP GDP tang truang cham lai trong nam 2011 la he qua theo cac quy trong nam 2011. xk ygu khi thuc hien chfnh sach tai khoa va tien te T6C do tang GDP quy I dat 5,43%, quy 11 la chat che nham kilm che lam phat va 6n dinh kinh te 5,67%, quy III tang len 6,11% va quy IV uac dat 6- vT mo. Trong sir tang truang chung ciia toan bp nen
Hinh 1: Tang tru-ong GDP theo quy nam 2010 va 2011
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INH T€ Vier NAM NAM 2011 Vfl TRI6N VONG NAM 2012
Hinh 2: Dien bien chi so gia tieu dung (CPI) cac th^ng ndm 2011
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kinh te, cac nganh cung d^t muc tSng truang tfch cyc. Theo dy bao, gia trj san xuat nong nghi?p ca nam tSng khoang 3,6%, chi so san xuat cong nghi?p tang khoang 7%, gia trj khu vyc djch tSng khoang 6,4%.
Trong boi canh nhung tac dpng tu sy bien dpng bat lai cua kinh te the giai va noi lyc kinh te con nhieu han che, mac du chua dat dugrc ke hoach va thap han so vai nam 2010, nhung co the coi ket qua tren day la dang khfch 1^. Tuy nhien, dieu dang quan tam la Viet Nam van chua tao ra dugc nhung chuyen bien ro net ve chat lugrng va hi^u qua cua qua trinh tang truang. Tang truang cua n5m 2011 van chii yeu dya vao khai thac cac Igri the ty nhien san co, sy dong gop cua nang suat va khoa hgc cong ngh^ hau nhu khong co sy chuyen bien dang ke. Chuyen doi mo hinh ting truang va tai cau true nen kinh te van la nhung van de dang dugc ban thao vai nhieu y kien khac nhau.
2. Lam phat tiep tuc 6* mure cao va tac d^ng manh den san xuat va doi song
Nam 2011, lam phat co nhCrng dien bien phiic t^p.
Tu dau nam den thang 5, chi so gia tieu dung co sy gia tang a muc cao. Tuy nhien, lam phat da co xu huong giam tu thang 6 khi vi?c trien khai thyc hi?n Nghi quyet so 11/2011/NQ-CP bit d4u phat huy hi|u qua. Den het thang 11/2011, chi s6 gia tieu dung da tang tai 17,5% so vai cuoi nam 2010 va ca nam co thi a muc thap hon so vai muc Chfnh phu da dieu chinh (18%), nhung cao hon nhilu so vai
Nguon: Tong cue Thong ke muc ke ho^ich dugc Quoc hgi thong qua vao cuoi nam 2010 (duai 7%).
L^m phat a muc cao trong nSm 2011 la ket qua cua nhieu nguyen nhan chii quan va khach quan.
Cung vai vi?c dilu chinh ty gia USD/VND tang them 9,3%, vi?c dilu chinh gia mgt so mat hang quan trgng, thiet yeu va nhay cam theo lg trinh gia thj truang nhu xSng dau, di^n vao thang 2 va thang 3/2011 CO tac dgng tryc tiep den tang chi so gia tieu dung cac thang nam 2011' L^m phat trong nam 2011 con do tac dgng ciia thien tai keo dai mang l^i nhung ton that Ion vl nguai va tai san, Iam anh huong den ngudn cung va tang gia ca luong thyc, thyc pham. Cung can noi them rang, vi$c thuang lai nuac ngoai 6 ^t thu mua nong san tryc tiep tir cac hp nong dan va xuat khau tieu ng^ch qua bien giai tuy CO dem l^i Igi ich nhat djnh cho nong dan nhung khong nh^ng chi gop phan lam tang gia luang thyc, thyc pham, ma con co the mang l^i nhung h|iu qua kho luong.
Trong khi ngi lyc cua nin kinh te con thap, nhung yeu kem tfch ty tu nhilu nam chua dugc khic phuc, thi kinh te the giai l^i tilp tyc co nhu'ng diln bien phuc t^p, l?m phat tang, gia dau tho, gia nguyen vat lifu ca ban dau vac cua san xuat, gia luong thyc, thyc ph4m tiep tyc xu huomg tang cao, cugc khung hoang ng cong xay ra a nhilu nuoc EU, sy phuc hoi mong manh va kinh te My... Ia nhung ylu t6 ben ngoai tac dgng lam tang chi so gia tieu dimg cua Vift Nam.
KinhteiPy Irien
KINH Te VI€T NflM NAM 2011 VA TRI6N VONG NAM 20 m
L?im phat tang cao da tac dgng din tat ca cac doi tugng. Bg phan dan cu co thu nh§p thap va trung binh (nong dan, cong nhan, vien chuc) chju anh huang nang nl nhat vi chi tieu cho luong thyc, thyc pham, hgc hanh cua con cai chiem ty trgng ldn nhat trong thu nh^p ciia hg. Voi cac doanh nghifp, chi phi dau vao tang cao cung vai ty gia hoi doai bien dgng manh da gay kho khan lan cho ho^t dgng san . xuat - kinh doanh. Trong dilu kifn bien dgng nay,
cac doanh nghifp ngay cang kho khan hom trong vifc bao toan va phat triln von kinh doanh. Dong thai, vifc triln khai thyc hifn cac dy kn dku tu cung gap nhilu kho khan do mgi dy toan chi phi diu c6 the trd thanh l^c h^u trudc nhung dien bien khdng the dy bao cua thj trudmg va gia ca.
3. Kim ngach xuat khau t&ng vol toe d9 cao, nhap sieu van con Ion nhimg co xu hun^g giam
Tfnh hit 11 thang nam 2011, kim ngach hang hda xuat khau d?it 87,16 ty USD, tang 34,7% so vai ciing ky nam 2010. Vai kit qua nay, xuat khau da chinh thuc can dfch ke hoach nam nay va vugt kha xa so vdi chi tieu 80 ty USD ma Bg Cdng thuang d^t ra cho ca nam. Kim ngach hang hoa xuat khau nam 2011 tang cao mgt mat do lugng xuat khau mgt so mat hang tang, mat khac do gia xuSt khiu cua nhilu mat hang tren thj trudmg tang va d muc cao. So vdi nam 2010, gia cao su tang 37,3%, gia hat tieu tang 66,6%, gia ca phe tang 49,3%, gia hat dilu tang 45,2%, gia dau thd tang 43,6%, gia than da tang 17,3%. Cac mat hang xuat khSu chii lyc diu dat muc tang cao: hang dft may tang 28%, dau thd tang 51%, giay dep tang 25%, thuy san tang 23%, may mdc thilt bi phu tiing tang 31 %; gao tang 15,9%, go va san pham gd tang 14%, cao su tang 39%, ca phe tang 52%.
Dat trong boi canh san xudt trong nudc cd nhieu khd khan va kinh t l cua nhu'ng nudc vdn la thi trudmg xuat khau ldn cua Vift Nam nhu My, Nh^t Ban, EU... vln trong tinh trying suy thoai ho?lc phyc hdi cham ch?p, cd the coi day la thanh tyu noi b|it cua tang trudng kinh te Vift Nam nam 2011.
Tdng kim ngach nh?p khSu 11 thang nam 2011 uac dat 96,1 ty USD, tang 26,4% so vdi cimg ky.
Tuy kim ng^ch nhap khiu cac mat hang phuc vy san xuat trong nudc (may mdc, thilt bi, dyng cy, phu tiing; nguyen, nhien v|it lifu) chiem khoang 90%
tdng kim ngach nhap khau, nhung nhilu loai hang xa xi vln dugc nhap khau vao thi trudmg Vift Nam.
Trung Quoc tilp t^ic la thi trudmg nh$p khau ldn nhat, tiep den la ASEAN, Han Quoc, Nhat Ban, EU vaMy.
Nh$p sieu 11 thang nam 2011 udc tfnh d?it 8,9 ty USD, bang 10,2% tong kim ng^ch hang hda xuit khiu, thip hon nhilu so vdi kl hoach 16% ciia nam nay. Ddy la kit qui tfch cyc trong vifc thyc hifn nhifm vy h^n chl nh$p sieu, tien tdi can bing cdn cin thuomg m^i.
Ben c^nh nhQ-ng thanh tyu dd, trong xuit nh^p khiu vin cdn mgt so vin dl cin quan tam, trong dd noi b|it la: 1/ Co ciu hang xuit khiu hiu nhu khdng cd gi thay d6i so vdi nhu'ng nam trudc dfiy; 2/ Nhap sieu van d muc cao va t^p trung qua muc vao thi trudng Trung Quoc.
4. Syr lung tung v^ bat cap trong cat giam dau tv cong
cat giam diu tu cdng da dugc d$t ra tu nhilu nam nay. Trong nam 2011, Nghi quyet so 11/2011/NQ- CP da xac dinh cit giam diu tu cdng la bifn phap quan trgng nhim kilm chl lam phat va on dinh kinh te vT md. Theo yeu cau nay, Chfnh phu da ngimg ke ho^ch chi hem 80.500 ty dong, trong dd cd 30.000 ty dong tfjr vifc lap va dilu hanh cac ke hoach ciia Chfnh phu va 10.000 ty ddng tilt kifm dugc do khdng ung trudrc tiln cho cac dy an ciia nam 2012.
Trong khi dd, sau hom 6 thang thyc hifn Nghi quylt so 11/NQ-CP, cac bp, nganh va dia phuang da thyc hifn ngimg khdi cdng mdi, cat giam va dieu chuyen von ciia 2.103 dy an vdi tong sd von la 6.532 ty ddng, trong dd ngimg khdi cdng mdi 1.206 dy an vdi sd von 3.768 ty dong, cat giam, dilu chuyin vdn Clia 897 dy an vdri so von 2.764 ty dong. Theo dd, trong khi Nghi quyet ciia Chfnh phO the hifn quylt tam cao trong vifc cit giam diu tu cdng, thi phin Idn cac dia phucmg l^i chin chir trong vifc cit giam, ngirng khdi cdng cac dy an thupc von ngan sach nha nudc. So lifu tong hgp tir 63 tinh, thanh cho thay, hifn cd tdi 638 dy an cd sir dyng von ngan sach thugc doi tugmg khdng dugc khdi cdng mdi trong nam 2011 song vin dugc bo trf 1.763 ty dong dk thyc hifn. Ngoai ra, cdn cd hom 2.000 dy an sCr dyng vdn ngan sach dia phucmg nhung khdng thugc ddi tugmg khdi cdng trong nam 2011 cung khdng dugc cat giam. Tham chf, mdt so dia phucmg vin tilp tyc de nghi xin them von tir ngan sach nha nudc^.
Khd cd the tinh toan dugc mgt each cy thi tac dgng cOa tinh tr^ng tren din vifc thyc hifn nhifm
Kii teJ'liat trien
^ I N H T€ VI€T NAM NAM 2011 VA TRI6N VONG NAM 2012
vy kilm che l^m phAt va on dinh kinh tl vT md, gifta ngo^i tf va nOi tf. Theo s6 lifu ciia Ngan hang nhung tu day cd thi thiy ring ky lu§t diu tu (va Nha nudc, trong 9 thang diu nam tfn dyng ngi tf chi rgng ra la ky cuong ph6p nudc) chua nghiem. Bfin tang 4,88%, nhung tfn dyng ngo^i tf da tang c^inh nhumg nguyen nhan bit nguon tir cAc tiSu chi 23,38%, trong khi huy dgng von ngo^i tf-chi tang hudng dan cit gidm diu tu cdng chua cy thi, thi 4,45%. Tinh hlnh nay sg gay ap lyc ldm din thanh nguyen nhdn chfnh l^i xuit phat tu tfnh thilu ki6n khoan ngofii tf vao cuoi nam, dong thdi cd nguy ca quylt va trift dl trong to chirc thyc hifn trgn co sd iam tang tinh tr^ng ddla hda nin kinh tl. Mgt nii ro Igi fch chung, cdn khoang cdch giaa chu truang va khde cung da b^c 10 ngay cang rd trong ho^it dgng to chuc thyc hifn, giura ndi va iam. ciia hf th6ng ngSn hang la rui ro d^o due. Vdi sy vd Cit giam, tai CO ciu diu tucdng da dugc xac dinh '<^ c^c vy vifc "vugt trin iai suit", "mac ca lai la mpt trong ba npi dung ciia tai ca ciu nin kinh tl. suit".... da lam xiu di hinh anh cua mgt s6 ngan Dd la mpt chuang trinh ldn, Uo dai va dOng ch^m h^f 8 ^a cd the t^o ra nhiJng hf lyy xau trong hf tdi rat nhieu noi, nhieu lgi fch, ddi hdi sy thyc hifn thong.
nghiem minh va quyet lift. Khdng the tilp tyc tinh Diu ring trong tra ldi chit vin t^i ky hgp thur hai tr?ing dl ra ma khdng thyc hifn, bao cao sai Ifch vdi Quoc hgi khda Xlll, Thong doc Ngan hang nha thyc tl nhu thai gian qua. nudc chi rd s5 ngan hang thuang mai yeu k^m chi 5. Xuit hifn ngay cing r6 nh&ng diu hifu riii chilm khoang 5% cAc ngan hang thuang mai va td ro trong hoat dgng cua hf th6ng ngan h^ng churc tai chfnh d Vift Nam, nhung rd rang la vifc tai
T- * -.n,, 1-. 1 - 1 • 1 - ., ciu triic hf thong ngan hang da trd thanh yeu cau Trong nam 2011, ben c^nh vi?c ch|u nhung tac ^ ,. x, .... ,,. T ^ ^ Tx .. .. . . . .
^. .. . .. . i . , . . X , . , X cap thiet. Viec tdi cau truc de bao dam co dugc h?
dgng tieu cyc cua klio khan chung cua nen kmh te , J . i , ^ , . < .
, , , , , , . i . , 4 , , , ^. , thong ngan hang dugc quan tn tot, hoat dgng co va chfnh sach tien tf that ch§t, trong ho9t dgng cua , ., ^ f , ,A \ ,. , \ I ' . , . . . , . i - , . - j _ X,... , , > hi?u qua, san pham va djch vy da d^ng, tung buac h? thong ngan hang cung da xuat hi?n ngay cang ro . .i , . . . , . , . . .
, .J ji , . . .. rr. . 1 i *, ,. .. , . nang cao tiem lyc tai chmh va kha nang c^h tranh, nhieu dau hieu rui ro. rn«rc A/e/, do la rui ro tin dyng ^, , ^ , . ^ . .. ° ,. , i ,.
X . ' . 1 - i x . , , rr-.,. dap ung tot hom yeu cau phat tnen nen kmh te thi va ng xau gia tang trong h? thong ngan hang. Ty le , , ,
* • ' - u' •u c^.w A^ truang o nudc ta.
ng xau cua cac ngan hang thuomg mai 9 thang dau
nam da len 3,5% tong du ng (so vdi 2,5% cua nam ^' T'"*" •'"^ng ^ ^ ^^^ «"« thi trirorng bat d^ng 2010), dac bift ng cua nhdm 5 (nhdm cd kha nang *^" ^« "g^y ca xay ra phan lirng day chuyen mit tring) chiem khoang 47% tong ng xiu. Rui ro Budc vao nam 2011, mpt nha diu tu tai chinh Idn tfn dyng va ng xiu ngan hang se cd xu hudng gia cua Vift Nam da dua ra Idi khuyen: "Vang tang tang trong boi canh thi trudng chung khoan, thi ^^°/° '"Ot nam, USD mit gia so vdi nhumg dong tiln trudng bit dgng san tyt doc va sy do vd cua nhilu khde, VND giam gia tri nen gui tilt kifm khd bao chii ng tfn dyng "den" Thu hai, dd la riii ro thanh ton von. Do dd, diu tu vao bit dgng san va cd phieu khoan xuit phat tu bit c^p trong co ciu huy dgng- la kenh quan trgng bao tdn von va gia tang gia tri tai cho vay. Vdi nguon von huy dgng ngin h^in chiem san trong nam 2011"^. Tuy nhien, mau toi l^i la gam tdi 70 -80% tdng nguon huy dgng, th^m chf cd mgt m^u chii d^o trong burc tranh thi trudng bit d^ng san so ngan hang len tdi 90%, trong khi dd cho vay nSm 2011. Trdng cugc khung hoang va suy thoai trung dai han thudng chiem tu 30- 40% tong du ng, k'nh te toan cau, cAc doanh nghifp bit dgng san da thi vin de rui ro thanh khodn rit de nay sinh. Ben chiu Xic dgn^ m ^ h m6 do chi phf xay dyng tang canh dd, vifc nhilu ngan hang ap dyng lai suit huy cao vk nhu cau bat dgng san giam sau. Trong nam dgng d muc cao cho tit ca cac ky h?n va cho khdch 2011, gidm toe dg va ty trgng vay von tin dyng ciia hang rut tiln linh ho^t nhim hiit von cung sg diy cac khu vyc phi sdn xuit, nhit la Imh vyc bit dgng san ngan hang tdi tinh tr^ng bi dgng trong vifc huy vd churng khoan lam cho ho^t dgng ciia cac doanh ddng cung nhu su dyng von. Thir ba, rui ro lai suit nghifp kinh doanh bit dgng sdn l^i cdng khd khdn.
xuit hifn do dg venh ldn vl ky h^in giOra tai san cd Myc tieu gidm ty trgng cho vay phi sdn xuit trong vatai sdn ng trong cac ngan hdng do lam phat ludn tong dung xuong toi da 16% vdo 31/12/2011 da gay d mure cao vd biln dgng vdi ben dg Idm. Thictu, tiem khd khdn tryc tilp ve ngu6n von doi vdi cac doanh in rui ro ngoai tf trong cdc ngan hdng. Hifn tugmg nghifp bat dgng sdn.
ndy bit ngudn ty sy bit hgp Iy vl chfnh sach lai suit Tinh tr?ng dm d^m ciia thi trurdng bit dgng san
KINH T€ VI6T NAM NAM 2011 VA TRI6N VONG NAM 20 m
keo ddi trong sudt 9 thang diu nam 2011 va quy IV dugc danh gia la thdi dilm khic nghift nhit. Nhilu doanh nghifp khdng vay dugc vdn de triln khai dy an; nhilu doanh nghifp khdng dii sue cim cy vdi khdi ng goc vd lai suit cao tdi han phdi trd cho cdc ngan hang thuang m?ii. Cac doanh nghifp co tim mgi each xoay sd dl ton tai: h?i gia dit nen, can hg chyng cu va nhilu chieu khuyin mai khde nhmig vdn khdng du sure hip din khach hang; bdn mgt phan ho|Lc toan bg dy dn bit dgng sdn cho cac nhd dau tu nudc ngodi... Ddng thdi, gidi kinh doanh cung hy vgng vd chd dgi nhUng bifn phdp giai cuu thi trudng bit dpng san tu phfa Chfnh phu.
Ngdy 14/11/2011, Ngan hang Nha nudc da ban hanh Cdng van so 8844/NHNN-CSTT. Theo dd, cd bon nhdm dugc lo^i trir khdi ITnh vyc cho vay phi san xuit: Xay dyng nha de ban cho thue cho ngudi thu nhap thip, cdng nhan lao dgng t^i cac khu cdng nghifp, khu chl xuit, khu kinh tl; Xay dyng nhd d cho cdng nhan khu cdng nghifp nhung khdng thu tien thue nha ho^c thu tien thue vdi gid thue khdng vugt qud muc gid cho thue nhd d do Uy ban nhan dan cap tinh ban hanh md chi phf xay dyng nhd d hoac chi phf tiln thue nhd d dugc tfnh Id chi phf hgp ly trong gid thdnh sdn xuit khi tfnh thul thu nhap doanh nghifp; Xay dyng cdc cdng trinh, dy dn phat trien nhd d sdp hoan thien va se dugc bdn giao, dua vdo su dung trudc ngdy 01 thdng 01 nam 2012 theo ndi dung hgp ddng trong hoat ddng xay dyng giua chu dau tu va nha thiu, hgp ddng mua ban tdi sdn, hgp dong mua bdn nhd d, hgp dong thue tdi sdn.
Nhieu nhd kinh doanh ddnh gia quy dinh ndy Id mpt bifn phap "cuu nguy" cho thi trudng bat dpng sdn.
Song, nhilu chuyen gia I?i cho ring tdc dpng cua nd din thi trudng khdng nhieu.
Trong nin kinh tl cua mpt nudc dang phdt triln nhu Vift Nam, phat triln thi trudng bit dpng sdn Id yeu ciu tat ylu, nhung nlu khdng cd bifn phap qudn Iy huu hifu, ngdn ch?ln tinh tr^ng diu co va Igi fch nhdm, thi khd cd thi tranh dugc tinh trang "bong bdng" mang Iai nhiJng nii ro Idn cho cd xa hgi.
7. Tinh trang xuong doc cua thj trvdng chihig khoan
Tir khi ra ddi din nay, ndm 2007 dugc coi la thdi dilm hoang kim cua thi trudng chirng khodn Vift Nam. Tir ndm 2008, dudi tac dgng cua khung hoang tdi chfnh vd suy thodi kinh t l todn cau, sy gia tdng nhumg khd khan cua kinh t l trong nudc, thi trudng
chung khodn bit diu di xuong vdi toe dg ngdy cdng nhanh. M$c diu trong nhiJng ngdy cuoi nam 2010 cd nhu'ng dy bdo l^c quan ve sy khdi sic ciia thi trudng ndy, nhung ndm 2011 l^i chung kiln sy di xuong thg tham cua thi trudng chu'ng khodn. Chi so chung khodn trgn sdn HOSE vd HNX lien tyc "phd ddy" vd dudng nhu qud trinh ndy van chua cd dilm dirng. Trong nhiJng ngdy cuoi thdng 11 va diu thdng
12/2011, gid CO phieu giao dich tren thi trudng xuong thip din mure ddng kinh ngae: cd loai c6 philu chi cdn gid tri 600 - 700 dong/co philu, thip hom 50 Ian so vdi thdi dilm cd gia cao nhit. Theo thong ke, trgn sdn HOSE cd 150 md vd HNX cd 256 ma dudi mfnh gid, trong dd, lugmg co philu cd gid dudi 3.000 dbng Id khodng 30 ma. Hiu hit cac co philu lam vdo tinh tr?ng ndy deu cd ket qud tdi chfnh thua Id. Chi so Idng tin trgn thi trudng dang d muc thip ky lyc trong suot lich sii 11 ndm phdt triln cua thi trudng chung khodn Vift Nam.
Tinh trying dm dam cua thi trudng chung khodn, mpt mat, phdn dnh thyc trang dm dam ciia ngn kinh te vd khd khdn trong kinh doanh cua cdc cdng ty nigm yet; mat khde, cho thay nhung bat cap trgn thi trudng nhu tinh trang thilu minh bach, vi pham thdng tin, bdo cdo tdi chfnh khdng nghigm tuc...
Trong khudn kho cdc bifn phap kilm chl lam phat, on dinh kinh tg vT md, vifc cac ngan hang thuang mai thyc hifn ygu ciu ciia Ngdn hdng Nhd nudc gidm ty trgng du ng phi sdn xuit xuong dudi 22%
vdo cuoi thdng 6/2011 vd 16% vdo cudi nam ciing cd tdc dpng khdng nhd dgn thi trudmg churng khodn.
Tinh tr^ng ndy I?ii keo theo nhung tdc ddng tigu cue tdi ho^it dpng cua cac cdng ty chirng khodn. Nlu trong ndm 2010, chi cd 20 cdng ty churng khodn thua Io, thi tfnh din hit quy 11/2011, da cd 70 cdng ty chung khodn bi thua Id. Vdi 105 cdng ty chung khoan trong mpt thi trudng h?in h?p nhu hifn nay, vifc ton t^i vd cd lgi nhu|m Id mgt thdch thuc rit Idm.
Tinh trang dm d^m cua thi trudng chumg khodn cd thi keo theo hdng lo^t hf lyy: cdc nhd diu tu rut tien khiln ddng tiln vdo thi trudng bi nit ra ngdy mgt nhilu; ng xiu gia tdng ciia cdc cdng ty churng khodn dnh hudng den cdc ngdn hdng thuomg mai.
8. Sir hon loan cua thi trirdng vang
Nlu nhu ndm 2009 vd 2010, d Vift Nam da chung kiln nhirng "dgt dign Io?n ciia gid vdng", thi den thdng 7 - 8/2011, gid vdng I^i Iam vdo trang thai dign loan mdi. Da cd thdi diem, gid vdng milng da
^ I N H T€ VI€T NAM NAM 2011 V^ TRI^N VONG NfiM 2012
Hinh 3: Ngr cong v^ ng' nudc ngodi giai dosin 2006 - 2011
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Ign tdi 39,04 trifu dong/lugng (ngdy 14/7/2011). Cd ngdy, gid vdng thay doi tdi 42 lin (ngdy 9/8/2011).
Trong nhumg ngdy tilp theo, gid vdng thudng xuygn cd nhiJng biln dgng "ndng, I^nh" thit thudng. Cd nhilu nguygn nhan ddn din dy biln dgng m^nh mg cua gid vdng. Trgn thi gidi, gid vdng lign tyc tdng cao vd dong ddla My mit gid so vdi nhilu ddng tiln khde. Q trong nudc, nhiJng ndm qua, Vift Nam ludn duy tri Iam phat cao, khiln tien ddng mit gia, cung vdi dd la cdc kgnh diu tu khde nhu chung khodn, bit dgng sdn... kem hip dan dd khiln ngudi dan quay sang vdng dl tim nai tru in an todn. Tinh tr^ng diu CO, thieu minh b^ch ciia thi trudng vd tdc dgng tam Iy cung Id nhii'ng ylu to quan trgng thiic diy gid vdng tang cao.
Sy hon lo^n cua thi trudng vdng khdng chi phdn anh dgng thdi chung thi trudng the gidi, md edn lign quan den sy thao tiing, "Idm gid" eua mgt so doanh nghifp kinh doanh vdng Idn hay nhiJng "chigu" gay nhilu vd tao sdng cua gidi diu ca. Sy "hon lo^in"
cua thi trydng vdng thu hut sy quan tdm khdng chi cdc nhd diu tu md cua cd xd hgi. Tuy gia vang khdng nim trong "ro hang hda" tfnh CPI, nhung sy tang gid vdng I^i cd dnh hudng tryc tilp din CPI qua tdc dgng tam Iy din tang gid nhilu lo^i hdng hda khac. Trong boi cdnh dm d^m cua thi trudng chumg khodn vd thi trudng bit dgng sdn, dong dd la My bi mit gia, cac ddng von t^p trung cao vdo thi trudng vdng da Idm cho cau vdng tang cao, trong khi cung
Nguon: Bp Tai chinh
vdng bi h^n chl do phy thugc vdo h^in ng^ch nh^ip vdng cua Ngdn hdng nhd nudc vd tdm Iy dau ca ciia nhd diu tu. Ciu Idn hom cung da Idm cho gid vdng trong nudc tdng cao hom rit nhieu so vdi vdng the gidi. Dieu nay dan den tinh tr^ng budn Idu vdng dien ra m^nh mg. Budn Idu vdng Idm ciu ngo^i tf tren thi trudng ty do tdng va gdp phin Iam ty gid thi trudng ty do tdng. Nhi/ng dilu ndy mgt mdt gay dp lyc pha gid dong ngi tf, mgt m$t gdy dp lyc bugc Ngan hang Nhd nudc cho phgp nh^p vdng. Cir nhu v^y, vdng xody vdng, ngo^i tf Idp di Idp I^i gdp phin gay nen tinh tr^ng bit on tdng cao. Nhihig chfnh sdch can thifp cua Ngdn hang Nhd nudc vdo thi trudng vdng gan day nhu nh|ip khiu vdng, d^p bd sdn giao dich vdng do hay kinh doanh vang mieng chi Id nhirng gidi phdp mang tinh ngin h ^ vd td ra kem hifu qua, ddi hdi cin phdi cd nhOmg phuomg thiirc qudn Iy mdi tudn theo cdc nguyen tic cua thi trudng.
9. Ngr cong vSn trong v6ng kilm scat nhimg dang ddt ra nhirng canh bao ngay cang gay git
Ng cdng vd ng nudc ngodi cua Vift Nam dang ed xu hudng tdng nhanh: ndm 2006, ng cdng bing 32,5% GDP va ng nudc ngodi bing 31,4% GDP, din ndm 2011 da Ien din khodng 57,8% vd 44,5%.
Nlu ndm 2001, ng cdng diu ngudi Id 144 USD thi din ndm 2011 Ien tdi tren 600 USD, toe dg tang binh qudn hdng ndm khodng 18%.
Vifc khdng dinh "ng cdng van trong vdng kilm soat" dugc gidi thich bdng nhieu ly Ig: trong co ciu
8
Kinli tesPhatlrien
KINH T€ VI€T NAM NAM 2011 VA TRieN VONG NAM 20
ng cdng ciia Vift Nam, ODA vdi nhiimg dilu kifn 65 trgn tong s6 142 quoc gia dugc xip hang. Nhin vay uu dai chilm ty trgng ldm (75%); ng cdng dugc vdo cdc chi so ndng lyc c^nh tranh (GCI), cd tdi 10 tip trung cho diu tu phdt triln co sd h^ ting, gdp trong tong s6 12 chi so chfnh eiia GCI bi mit dilm.
phin tang trudng kinh tl; Chfnh phu dang trien khai Cdc dilm ylu dnh hudng din sy tyt hang ndng lyc nhirng bifn phdp chdt chg dl qudn Iy ng cdng. Tuy c?mh tranh ciia Vift Nam Id tinh tr?ng I^m phat cao, nhign, nhii'ng Iy lg dd vdn chua gidi tda dugc bdn thdm hyt ngdn sdch cdn qud ldm, co sd h? ting chua khoan ciia xd hgi v l nhu'ng rui ro cua tinh tr^ng gia theo kip toe dO tdng trudng kinh tl, chit lugmg gido tdng ng cdng vd ng nudc ngodi. Nhi/ng bdn khodn dye thip, thu tyc hdnh chfnh rudm rd, quyln sd hu'u Io ling ndy xuit phdt tir: tinh tr^ng phdn tdn, thit trf tuf ch$m cdi thifn vd tham nhung cao. Bgn c?inh thodt, lang phi trong qudn Iy von diu tu, ddc bift Id 45^ ^dc dii mdi trudng diu tu ciia Vift Nam ngdy dau tu phdt triln co sd h? ting;^ lugng von vay din cdng cdi thifn, nhung cdc chfnh sdch 6e thiic diy han trd ng ngdy cdng tdng, phin trd ng hdng ndm t^^y j ^ j ^^^^h mg hon niJa vin chua quylt lift. Do chilm khoang 14- 16% chi ngdn sdch nhd nudc; ^5^ ^dc khiim khiiylt ton t^i cu mdc du dd dugc cung vdi sy tang trudng cua nin kinh tl, phin v6n ^dnh bdo tir nhilu nam nay nhung vin khdng dugc ODA sg giam dan, phan von vay thuang m?ii ngdy gj^j ^^y^j ^ ^ 4 i | ^ ^^ ^^ cdn trd sy phdt triln cdng cao; lugng ng cdng cao han nhilu so vdi dy triJ ^^ung. Vdi vi trf thir 65 cua ndm 2011, so vdi cdc ngoai tf cua dat nudc; bgi chi ngdn sdch d muc cao ^^x^ ^.^ ^^^^ ^^^ ^ ^^.^ ^^^^ ^.^^ gi. ^^^^g keo dai nhieu nam... ^ ^ ^^^^^ ^A^ ^^^^^ ^^^ Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia,
Ng cdng dang Id vin de ndng bdng cua nhilu Brunei, khodng cdch giira Vift Nam vd cdc quoc gia nudc. Nlu khdng dugc kilm sodt mgt cdch hiJu hifu n^y ^ang ngdy cdng xa (Singapore xip thir 2, se khd trdnh khdi tinh tr?ng khung hodng ng cdng Malaysia xip thiir 21, Bninei xip thu 28, vd Indo- vdi nhiJng hau qud khdn ludng cd vl kinh t l vd xd ^^^^^ ^^p ^^^^ 45) jrong dilu kifn canh tranh thu hgi. Hy Lap Id mgt bdi hgc khdng thi bd qua. ^iit diu tu giiJa cdc nudc ngdy cdng gay git, vifc tut
10. Tut hang ve nang lyc canh tranh hang nang lyc c?inh tranh dat ra vin de ddi hdi Theo Bao cao ndng lyc canh tranh todn ciu 2011- Chfnh phii cin cd phuang thuc dilu chinh chiln 2012 ciia Diln ddn Kinh t l The gidi (WEF), Vift lugc cdi cdch de nang cao ndng lyc c^nh tranh qudc Nam tut 6 bdc so vdi nam 2010-2011, dumg d vi trf gia.n
1. Vifc dieu chinh tdng gid xdng diu vd gid difn vdo nhihig ngdy cu6i thdng 2/2011 c6 nhOng tdc dfng tryc tiep vd manh mg din tdng CPI cua nhihig thdng tilp theo. Tir ngdy 24/2/2011, gid bdn le cdc lo?ii xdng tdng 2.900 ding/lit, diesel tdng 3.550 d6ng/lit, diu hoa tdng 3.100 dong/lit, diu ma-ziit tdng 2.110 dong/lit. Theo tinh todn ciia cdc chuyen gia, vifc dilu chinh tdng gid xdng diu sg ldm tdng gid thdnh khodng 0,88% vd tang CPI khoang 0,9%. Tir ngdy
1/3/2011, mure gid bdn dien cQng dugc dilu chinh tdng them 15,28%. Cdc chuygn gia cung udc tinh vifc tdng gid difn sg ldm tdng gid thdnh ciia cdc ngdnh sdn xuat len khodng 1,14% vd CPI tdng khoang 1,2%.
2. Bao Lao dpng ngdy 28/10/2011.
3. "Ndm 2011, hdy diu tu bat dfng san vd co philu", Vietnamnet.vn ngdy 7/1/2011.
Tai lieu tham khao:
1. Bdo cdo cua Chinh phu tai ky hpp thii 2 Quoc hfi khda XIII vl tinh hinh kinh tl - xd hfi ndm 2011, kl ho?ich phdt triln kinh te - xd hfi ndm 2012 vd 5 nSm 2011-2015.
2. Nghi quylt s6 11/2011/NQ-CP ngdy 24/2/2011 cua Chinh phii vl cdc bifn phdp kilm chl l?im phdt, 6n dinh kinh tl vT m6 vd ddm bdo an sinh xd hfi.
3. Cdc website cua Chinh phii, Bf Kl hoach vd Ddu ttr, Bf Tdi chfnh, Bf Cdng thuomg, T6ng cyc Th6ng kg.
4. Nguyin K I Tuin (chu bign): Kinh tl Vift Nam nSm 2010 - Nhin l^i md hinh tdng trudng giai do?in 2001 -2010, Nhd xuit bdn D?ii hpc Kinh tl qu6c ddn, 2011.
5. Ld Qu6c Hfi: Tong quan kinh tl Vift Nam ndm 2010 vd khuyin nghi cho ndm 2011, Tap chi Nghien ciiu kinh tl,s6 thdng 1 ndm 2011.
6. Thdi bdo Kinh tl Vift Nam, Thdi bdo Ngdn hdng, Thdi bdo Kinh tl Sdi Gdn ndm 2011.
