^ ^ ^
MOT SO VAN OE NOI BAT
• •
CUA KINH TE THAI LAN
GIAI DOAN 2001-2010 VA TRIEN VONG
N G U Y E N HUY HOANG*
T
rudc cugc k h u n g h d a n g tai chinh Ddng A 1997-98, k i n h t e ' T h a i Lan t r a i qua thdi ky t a n g trQdng cad, kee dai vdi ty le t a n g trUdng G D P b i n h q u a n dat tren 9% n a m trong giai doan 1985-95, giup nUde nay n h a n h chdng trd t h a n h nude cd mQc t h u n h a p t r u n g binh va la met trong nhQng nen kinh te n a n g dgng tren the gidi. Thai Lan trd t h a n h nUdc co k h a n a n g c a n h t r a n h cao trong ca dau tU va thUdng mai.Tuy nhien, nhQng n a m cuc'i the ky 20 va t h a p nien dau eua t h e ky 21, kinh te Thai phai dd'i m a t vdi nhQng khd k h a n . ThQ nha't, edn bao tai chinh Ddng A 1997- 1998 ma Thai Lan la t a m chan da lam kinh te rdi vao suy thoai sau vdi t a n g trUdng GDP am, dau tU nude ngoai giam manh, san xua't cdng nghiep giam, t h a t nghiep t a n g cae va he thdng an sinh xa hdi bi xud'ng cap. ThQ hai, k h u n g hoang kinh to' toan cau 2008 da d a n h m a n h vao nen kinh te dQa vae x u a t k h a u n h u Thai Lan, dan den suy giam t a n g trUdng GDP, xua't k h a u va dau t u r a t t r a m trgng, ThQ
ba, b a t dn chinh tri trong nQde dd mau t h u a n va t r a n h gianh quyen iQe giQa eac dang phai da lam cho bQe t r a n h kinh te - xa hgi Thai Lan lai trd nen am dam hdn,
Vdi nhQng bien ed' do, de giup ban dgc n a m dUdc nhQng bien dgng cua nen kinh te Thai trong thdi gian qua, nghien cQu nay se t a p t r u n g binh luan va p h a n tich mgt so' dac diem ndi bat eua kinh te nUde nay trong giai doan tQ 2001 den 2010 va du'a ra mgt so du bac ve trien vgng eua no trong thdi gian tdi,
I. M O T SO VAN D E NOI BAT CUA KINH T E THAI LAN GIAI DOAN 2001-2010 1. S u y t h o a i n h e x u a t h i e n v a o n a m 2001 s a u g a n 2 n a m h o i p h u c tii c u o c k h i i n g h o a n g t a i c h i n h 1997-98 do m o i trUdfng k i n h t e ' t h e gidi co nhufng b a t o n N a m 2000-2001 co the dUdc coi la n a m ban le cua ea k i n h te the gidi va k m h te Thai Lan khi day la thdi diem giad thoa giQa hai thien nien ky. Xet ve eac boat dgng k m h te, n a m 2001 la nam kinh te
* TS. Nguyen Huy Hoang, Vien Nghien cilu Dong Nam A
30 Nghien cifu Dong Nam A li/2010
Thai cd nhQng dieu chinh nha't djnh sau 2 nam (1999 va 2000) hdi phuc tQ cugc khung hoang Ddng A 1997-1998, Trong bdi canh kinh te toan cau cd suy thoai nhe, gia dau tang trong nUa dau nam 2001, thi trUdng chQng khdan the gidi chad dad giam mdt phan dd sQ kien 11/9 lam cho cau the gidi, nhat la My cd sQ suy giam nhe, dan den nhu cau nhap khau hang hda cung giam. Them vao dd, nhu cau trong nUde cQng ed dau hieu suy giam.
Day la nhQng ly do chinh lam cho tang trQdng GDP cua kinh te Thai cd giam nhe sd vdi hai nam 1999 va 2000, xud'ng 2,1%, tQ mQc 4,4% nam 1999 va 4,7% nam 2000.
2. ThUc h i e n c h i n h s a c h k i n h te "Ivfdng k e n h " (dual t r a c k ) cho giai d o a n 2002- 2006: Mot bri'dfc dot p h a c u a c h i n h phii T h a k s i n
Day la chinh sach kinh te ket hgp giQa kich thich ndi dja va thQc hien thj trudng md nham tang cQdng thQdng mai vdi ben ngoai va thu hut dau tQ nude ngoai. Diem dac trQng cua chinh sach "lUdng kenh" la nham tad ra sU phan khang trUdc sQc ep cua ehu nghia bad hd dang xuat hien, tiep tue thUe hien chUdng trinh tU dd hda thQdng mai va tang tdc tien trinh dieu chinh cd ca'u kinh te. Cae bien phap thue hien bao gdm ddn gian hda thu tue xua't, nhap khau, tang tinh minh bach cua cdng tac hai quan, tiep tuc Id trinh giam thue nhap khau, tang eUdng the che chd'ng tham nhQng, thQc hien tQ nhan hda doanh nghiep nha nQdc, dQa luat canh tranh vao ap dung, sQa ddi qua trinh hdp phap hda ban quyen theo quy djnh cua
WTO ve ban quyen thUdng mai (TRIPs'^'), md cQa khu vQc tai chinh thed quy djnh ciia GATS*^', md rdng dam phan va khuyen khich cac ban hang thUdng mai trdng khu vQc. Ngoai ra, chinh phu cung da manh dan giai quyet cac van de nhU quan trj doanh nghiep yeu kem dUde hdc Id sau cugc khung hoang khu vUc 1997 thdng qua viec cung cd' hoat ddng ke toan, cho phep tiet Id thdng tin va cung cd' quyen dieu tiet cdng tac kiem toan de phQ hdp vdi tieu chuan qud'c te. Ngoai ra, chinh phu cung theo dudi viec thUe hien cac chinh sach tai chinh, tien te nham dat dQdc sQ dn djnh ve gia ea, lam phat thap va tai khda dQdc cung cd'.
NhQng quy djnh ve dau tQ nUdc ngoai van tQdng dd'i md va tQ dd d Thai Lan vdi cac chQdng trinh khuyen khich ciia Be dau tu (BOI) chd phep cdng ty 100% vd'n nudc ngoai hoat ddng trong mdt so' linh vUe. De khuyen khich hdn nQa dau tU nudc ngoai, chinh phu khdng huge cae cdng ty nude ngoai tuan thu cac quy djnh ve ndi dung mat hang xua't khau de phu hdp vdi cam ket cua WTO^'^'.
Chinh sach "lUdng kenh" da mang lai thanh cdng cho kinh te Thai. TQ cho suy giam trong nam 2001, kinh te Thai Lan bat dau chu ky tang trudng mdi vdi ty le tang trudng kha an tQdng. Tang trQdng binh quan giai ddan 2002-07 dat 5,6%/nam vdi mQc an tUdng nhat la nam 2003 khi tang trudng GDP thee gia cd djnh dat 7,1% va dat 6,3% trong nam 2004. Tuy nhien, giai doan 2005-07 kinh te Thai ed da'u hieu suy giam nhe do tac
Nguyen Huy Hoang - Mdt sd van de ndi hat cua kinh teThdi Lan... 31 ddng cua nhQng b a t dn chinh trj trong
nQdc va do tac ddng cua t r a n sdng t h a n cudi n a m 2004 tai An Do Dudng.
3. D a m p h a n h d p t a c k i n h t e s o n g phQdng v a d a p h i f d n g t r e n c d s d t h u c d a y k y k e t c a c h i e p d i n h t h U d n g m a i ti^ do (FTA) vdi b e n n g o a i v a n dUdc t a n g cifdng
Giai ddan 2001-2010 dugc cho la thdi ky t h a n h cdng t r d n g Iinh vUe hdp tac k i n h te qud'c te va hdi n h a p eua k i n h te Thai Lan khi h a n g Icat cac FTA da dugc ky ket va cd hieu lUc. ThUe t e . T h a i L a n da b a t dau t h a m gia vae h i n h t h a i hdp tac FTA tQ n a m 1993 trong k h u d n k h d hdp tac mau djch tQ dd ASEAN. Tuy nhien phai den dau the ky 21 (nam 2003), Thai Lan mdi bat dau d a m p h a n ve viec ky ket cac FTA seng phUdng vdi dd'i tac ngoai ASEAN. T i n h den dau n a m 2010, Thai Lan da cd q u a n he FTA vdi 11 qud'c gia va vung l a n h t h d va d a n g t h a m gia dam phan vdi 6 dd'i tac k h a c . Trong n a m 2004, cd hai cugc dam p h a n t h a n h lap FTA k h a quan trgng da dUde thQc hien, dd la cugc dam p h a n FTA vdi N h a t Ban va My. Cugc dam p h a n FTA vdi My dude cdi la mdt hiep djnh ed t i n h "bude ngcat", ed t h e dem lai nhQng t h a y ddi ldn ddi vdi nen k i n h te Thai Lan. Tuy n h i e n , FTA vdi N h a t Ban da dUde hien thQc hda v a e n a m 2007 trdng khi FTA vdi My da k h d n g di den dich vi cac cugc d a m p h a n FTA giQa hai chinh phu da cham dQt s a u khi chinh p h u cua dng T h a k s i n da bj lat dd trdng met cugc dao chinh vad n a m 2006.
Ngoai ra, Thai Lan da chinh thQc ky ket FTA vdi eac ddi tac thQdng mai ldn nhQ New Zealand va ue (2005). Thdng qua Cd che FTA cua ASEAN, Thai Lan duge quyen t h a m n h a p vao eac thj trUdng nhU:
T r u n g Qudc (2005), N h a t Ban va Han Qud'c (2008), Ue, New Zealand va An Dd (2009). Ben c a n h dd, cae hiep djnh FTA k h u n g da va dang duge d a m p h a n vdi cac nude: B a h r a i n (2002), Peru (2005).
4. D o i mdi ctf c a u n e n k i n h t e v a n dUdc t i e p t u c
K h u n g hoang tai chinh k h u vUc 1997- 98 da tad nen mdi nghi ngd ve tinh ben vQng eua md h i n h t a n g trUdng kinh te cua Thai Lan. The nen, ngeai eac bien phap muc tieu giup nen kinh te lay lai dUdc tde do t a n g trUdng n h u kich thich tai khda, hd trg ky t h u a t cho cac doanh nghiep vQa va nhd va tQ dd hda thQdng mai thi cai each cd ca'u cung la mgt Uu tien h a n g dau chd ke heach p h a t trien eua Thai Lan nham xay dUng mdt nen t a n g vQng de duy tri dn djnh trong t a n g trUdng va giup nen kinh te cd k h a n a n g ddi phd dUde vdi nhQng eu sdc k i n h te. Cai each cd cau ehu yeu tap t r u n g vao k h u vUe tai chinh va ddanh nghiep n h a nQdc (SOEs).
De dat dUde dn djnh trdng khu vQc tai chinh, trdng nhQng n a m dau eua the ky 21 chinh p h u da t a p t r u n g vac viec cai thien chQc n a n g va h e a t dgng eua k h u vQc nay. "Ke hogch Tdng the Khu vUc Tdi chinh" ap d u n g n a m 2004 dQdc cci la mgt ban hQdng d i n , chi dad giai p h a p p h a t trien cho k h u vQc tai chinh trong 5 hay 10
32 Nghien citu Dong Nam A li/2010
nam tdi vdi muc dich chinh la lam tang tinh hieu qua cua he thd'ng tai chinh va tao ra mgt vai trd can bang hdn cho thj trUdng vd'n sd vdi cac td chQc tai chinh khac. Hdn nQa, ke hoach nay cQng dat muc tieu md rgng kha nang tiep can cae djch vu tai chinh chat lugng cad chd cae dd'i tUdng bj xem la thiet thdi ve mat quyen ldi, dac biet la cae dd'i tUdng sd'ng d vQng ndng thdn heo lanh, cac doanh nghiep vQa va nhd, eac tieu xi nghiep kinh doanh vdi quy md hd gia dinh, gdp phan thuc day sU cdng bang cho ngudi tieu dQng va bao ve hg dQdc td't hdn.
Chinh sach tQ nhan hda SOEs dQdc bat dau vad nam 1999*"*'. Muc tieu cua each SOEs la nang cad tinh hieu qua cua khu vQc ha tang kinh te va cac doanh nghiep lien quan, nham lam giam gia thanh phuc vu ngudi tieu dung, nang cae chat lUdng djch vu cQng nhQ ddi tQdng phuc vu.
Ngoai ra, tU nhan hda SOEs cung giup lam giam ganh nang dau tU cua nha nude va tQng bQde chuyen ganh nang dd sang vai tQ nhan. Ddi tQdng cua ke beach tU nhan hda d Thai Lan la tap trung vad khu vUc ha tang ed sd (nhU vien thdng, van tai, nUdc va nang lUdng), khu vUc cdng fch phuc vu lgi ich egng ddng va cac khu vUe thUdng mai va cdng nghiep.
5. Thvfc hien mot so chinh sach kinh te VI mo theo tinh than iing ho thuyet Keynes(5) n h a m giup n e n kinh te nhanh chong hoi phuc va on dinh
Chinh sach kinh te thee tinh than dng hd thuyet Keynes dUde thUc hien vae giai
ddan 2001-04 sau khi hdan thanh hai giai ddan: dn dinh ban ddu (1997-98); va tiem tien (1999-2000).
Sau khi gianh thang ldi trdng cugc bau cQ nam 2001, chinh quyen Thaksin da dUa ra nhQng cam ket vdi nhan dan ma de thQc hien nd thi ddi hdi phai cd mgt iQdng ldn ngudn tai chinh. Chinh phu da gay ngac nhien cho gidi quan sat vi da cd lugng tai chinh khdng Id de thQc hien cam ket ma trQdc dd dQdc coi la khdng thQc te thdng qua viec thQc hien chinh sach kinh te theo thuyet Keynes, tQc la ung hg thQc hien cac chUdng trinh tai chinh va tien te nham lam tang ty le toan dung nhan cdng va kich thich cac boat ddng kinh doanh.
cae giai phap kich thich kinh te ldn dUdc ap dung thdng qua -viec thuc day thQc hien eac dQ an ldn ve xay dQng cd sd ha tang, giai quyet viec lam cho ngQdi dan nhQ da cam ket.
Chinh sach nay da dem lai nhQng ket qua tich cQc. Sau suy theai nhe trdng nam 2001 (xua't khau giam 7,1%), xuat khau cua Thai Lan da hdi phuc kha manh trdng nhQng nam 2002-03-04 vdi ty le tang trQdng tQdng Qng la 4,8%, 18,2% va 21,6%. Trdng giai ddan nay, thQdng mai da trd thanh ddng gdp ehu yeu cho tang trudng nhanh va dn djnh cua nen kinh te vdi mQc tang trQdng GDP cho cac nam 2002, 2003 va 2004 theo thQ tQ la 3,8%, 7,1% va 6,3%. (tQ mQc tang trQdng nam 2001 la 2,1%). Tuy nhien, chinh sach nay cung da gay nen nhQng khd khan cho nen kinh te nhQ nd cdng tang cad (len tdi 50%
GDP), nd nude ngoai va ty le tham hut
Nguyen Huy Hoang - Mdt sd vd'n de ndi hat ciia kinh teThdi Lan. 33
ngan sach t a n g cao ( t h a m hut tai k h o a n tien m a t cua T h a i L a n t a n g m a n h trong nhQng n a m nay, tQ mQc 144,8 ty b a t h n a m 2002 t a n g len tdi 266 ty vad n a m 2003 va 412,5 ty n a m 2004 dd chi tieu cua chinh p h u q u a cao).
6. Ke h o a c h 5 n a m l a n thii 9 (2002- 2006) v a k e h o a c h 5 n a m Ian thiif 10 (2007-2011) v a c h ra nhufng d i n h hUdng mdi c h o n e n k i n h t e
Ke hoach 5 n a m lan 9 (2002-06) thUc hien djnh hQdng "nen k i n h te day du"
(sufficiency economy) do n h a Vua de x u a t vdi bdn t r u cdt chinh la bao trd xa hgi, t a n g cudng c a n h t r a n h , n a n g cao k h a n a n g q u a n trj va bao ve mdi trudng. Cu t h e hdn, muc tieu chinh sach kinh te t r e n g thdi gian nay la: (i) tai ca'u true cae khoan nd trong ndng nghiep, (ii) eung cap quy vd'n trj gia 1 t r i e u b a t h cho 70.000 xa trong ca nQde, (iii) c h u y e n cac khoan nd khdng boat dgng s a n g cac k h o a n nd mdi, (iv) t a n g cUdng sQ q u a n t a m cua cac td chQc chd vay n h a nude den cae d e a n h nghiep vQa va nhd; (v) t h u c day chuyen mdn hda s a n xua't theo cac nhdm lang xa;
(vi) t h a n h lap N g a n h a n g N h a n dan de cung cap cac k h o a n vay trj gia nhd (den 30.000 b a t h ) cho cac hd k i n h d o a n h nhd, va (vii) tai ca'u t r u e n e n k i n h te de giam sQ phu thugc vao n h a p k h a u va tien tdi p h a t trien dUa nhieu hdn vad ngudn tai nguyen san ed d dja phQdng, dac biet la ngudn tai nguyen ndng nghiep.
Ke heach 5 n a m lan thQ 10 (2007- 2011) dat ra dinh hudng phat trien kinh
te xa hdi chd giai doan mdi vdi triet ly cd b a n la van la "nin kinh te ddy du" va ap dung bien p h a p tiep can lay ngudn nhdn liic Idm trung tdm cho phdt trien n h a m tao r a mdt "Xd hgi Xanh vd Hgnh phuc"
vdi md h i n h dUa eac gia dinh gan vdi n h a u ; cdng ddng m a n h ; xa hgi yen binh;
nen k i n h te p h a t trien ed chat iQdng, dn djnh va cdng bang; va mdi trQdng thi ben vQng<^\
7. T a c d o n g c i i a k h i i n g h o a n g k i n h t e t o a n c a u 2008 v a c a c giai p h a p Qng p h o la m o t t r o n g nhufng v a n de noi bat c u a K i n h t e Thai L a n t r o n g t h a p n i e n q u a
La nude cd nen kinh te phu thugc qua ldn vao dau tU va thUdng mai qud'c te nen khi thj trQdng toan cau chao dao, kinh te Thai cung bj chao dao theo'^'. Hieu Qng lan tda eua suy giam trong xuat khau da truyen tdi va ed tac dgng xau tdi ta't ea eac k h u vUc cua nen kinh te ma khu vUe che tao bj tac dgng m a n h nhat. Ket qua la kinh te suy thoai va t h a t nghiep tang cao b a t dau tQ quy 4 n a m 2008 den het quy 2 n a m 2009. Tuy nhien, dd ec kinh nghiem trdng nd lUe dd'i phd vdi k h u n g hoang tai chinh k h u vUe nam 1997 nen he thong tai chinh cua Thai Lan khdng bj sup dd n h u k h u n g h o a n g trUde dd, tae dgng day chuyen do sQ sup dd cua he thdng tai chinh gay r a da khdng t r a m trgng n h u met so'qud'c gia khac tren the gidi.
DQng trQdc nguy ed suy thoai kinh te sau va kee dai, gid'ng n h u cac nUde khac t r e n t h e gidi. Thai Lan d^ M) dung cae
34 Nghien cifu Dong Nam A li/2010
bien p h a p Qng phd nhQ: bien p h a p cQu trd k h u vQc t a i chinh, c h i n h sach tien te va chinh sach tai khda,
- Cac b i e n p h a p cufu t r d t a i c h i n h : Cae bien p h a p cQu trd t a i c h i n h bao gdm:
Thd nhdt, c h i n h p h u d a t m u e tieu t a n g eUdng k h a n a n g t h a n h k h o a n va giai quyet nd eua cac td chQe tai chinh t r o n g nude b a n g bien p h a p tien h a n h bao hiem mdi hoac t a n g mQc p h i bao hiem dd'i vdi eac k h o a n tien gQi n h a m l a m giam k h a n a n g "sup dd" h a y p h a s a n eua cac n g a n h a n g thUdng mai, cac td chQc t a i chinh cdng. Cae k h o a n bao h i e m nd eua c h i n h p h u cho p h e p cac n g a n h a n g p h a t h a n h t r a i phieu mdi de t h u vd'n n h a m trudc m a t giai quyet khd k h a n ve von. Thd hai, Chinh p h u m u a lai ed phieu mdi do eac n g a n h a n g d a n g gap khd k h a n va rui ro cao ve tai chinh p h a t h a n h . Day dUdc coi la mgt h i n h thQc cQu trd tai chfnh cho cac ngan h a n g vi c h i n h p h u n h a n r a r a n g neu de ea he thd'ng n g a n h a n g s u p dd n h u n a m 1997 thi hien tQdng "dd" t h e e hieu Qng demind se lap lai ddi vdi t o a n bg nen k i n h te, va suy thoai s a u va keo dai la le dUdng nhien, Thd ba, c h i n h p h u ddng y m u a lai tai san ed v a n de tQ cac td chQc tai chinh ldn hdae hd trd e u n g cap b a c hiem chd tai san dd n h a m t r a n h k h a n a n g t h u a Id dd'i vdi mgt so' d a n h mue tai s a n vd'n dau tU, c a e loai tai s a n n a y se dilg'c djnh gia lai va t h a o gd t h d n g q u a cd che b a n da'u gia de giup cae td chQc n a y t r a n h dQdc k h a n a n g vd nd. M a t k h a c bien p h a p n a y cung p h a n nad giai quyet dUde nhQng khd k h a n trQdc m a t dd'i vdi n a n t h i e u h u t vd'n d a u tU khi d a n h muc tai s a n vd'n cua cac td chQc n a y
cd t h e trd t h a n h loai tai s a n cam cd.
- C h i n h s a c h t i e n t e
Khi k h u n g h o a n g d a n g d thdi ky cac trad, n g a n h a n g T r u n g Udng da 2 lan thQc hien h a lai sua't t i e n vay den mQc t h a p nha't ed t h e n h a m giup cae d o a n h nghiep t h a o gd khd k h a n va cd dieu kien hdn t r d n g viec tiep c a n vd'n vay lai sua't t h a p . L a n thQ nha't la vao t h a n g 12/2008, k h i lai sua't n g a n h a n g giam tQ 3,75% xud'ng cdn 1,75%, va l a n thQ h a i la vad t h a n g 4/2009 khi lai s u a t tiep tuc bj cat giam xud'ng cdn 1,25%. Day la mQc lai sua't dQdc chd la t h a p nha't tQ trQdc den n a y . T h e m v a c dd, chinh p h u nUde n a y edn thQc h i e n chQdng t r i n h d a m b a e tin d u n g de giup cac td chQc tai chinh, n g a n h a n g t r a n h dQdc t i n h
t r a n g vd nd. . . . : • • , - C a c c h i n h s a c h t a i k h o a :'
Mgt giai p h a p Qng phd k h a c eung rat q u a n trgng la chfnh sach tai khda n h a m hd trg va kfeh thich tdng cau trong nQde.
Ve ed ban, bien p h a p n a y la h i n h thQc tang khoan chi tieu tai c h i n h cho chinh phu trdng n a m tai khda 2009 n h a m d a u tQ vad eac dQ a n k i n h te ec k h a n a n g tao viec lam, cai thien he thd'ng a n s i n h xa hdi va giup nen k i n h te p h u c hdi n h a n h va tang t r u d n g trd lai'^^. Cac gdi kich thich k i n h te dUdc sQ d u n g n h a m kich thich t a n g chi tieu trong nude t h d n g q u a h i n h thQc hd trd ngQdi tieu d u n g b a n g tien m a t , phieu mua h a n g hay dau tU cdng va kich thich san xua't, hd trd n g a n h xua't k h a u n h a m tad t h e m nhieu viec lam giup giai quyet van de ve t h a t nghiep va suy giam s a n xua't cdng nghiep, t a n g t h u n h a p cho eac hd gia
Nguyen Huy Hoang - Mdt sdvdn de ndi hat ciia kinh teThdi Lan... 35
dinh n h a m bao d a m a n sinh xa hdi*^'.
II. T R I E N V O N G KINH TE THAI LAN
Bang nhQng nd iQe chd'ng dd vdi cugc k h u n g h o a n g m a c h i n h p h u ap dung, kinh te Thai da t h o a t khdi k h u n g h d a n g va cc da'u hieu hdi p h u c t r e n g nUa cudi n a m 2009. Budc vac n a m 2010, k i n h te nude nay d a n g cd da'u hieu t a n g trQdng trd lai va dQdc dQ bao la se s a n g s u a hdn trong nhQng n a m tdi khi k i n h te t h e gidi cung ed nhQng da'u hieu k h a q u a n va t i n h h i n h b a t dn chinh tri trong nUdc cd t h e se dUde kiem seat.
Vi ban c h a t cua n e n k i n h te Thai Lan la p h u thugc nhieu vae x u a t k h a u va dau t u nUde ngdai n e n t r e n g thdi gian tdi, khi kinh te toan cau lay lai nhip do t a n g trQdng cad va n h u cau tai cae thj trUdng ldn nhu My, EU va N h a t Ban t a n g len thi n g a n h xua't k h a u T h a i Lan t a n g trUdng m a n h trd lai. Vdi tac ddng eua bieu Qng lan tda thi xua't k h a u t a n g se keo theo san xua't cdng nghiep trong nude t a n g va n h u cau dau tU t a n g theo. Theo bao cao eua Chinh p h u T h a i L a n cung n h u cua ADB, WB va I M F thi trien vgng t a n g trQdng GDP trong n a m 2011 cua Thai Lan dUde dQ bad la k h d i n g t r e n 5%. Tuy nhien, cac bao cao cung c a n h bao r a n g b a t dn chinh trj ed k h a n a n g tdn h a i den nen kinh te, lam giam tde do t a n g trQdng eua nQde nay.
Nam 2011 cQng dQdc ky vgng la n a m cd tde do t a n g trQdng xua't k h a u va dau tU cao vdi mQc t a n g dau tQ dQdc dQ bad khdang 8%, tang xua't k h a u t r e n 12%, ty le that nghiep se d mQc t h a p : 0,8% va t a n g
trQdng eua h a n g che t a e dUdc ky vgng la k h d a n g 6%.
Vdi ke heach 5 n a m lan thQ 10 (2007- 2011) dang dien r a b a n g nhQng chinh sach p h a t trien k i n h te xa hgi kha an tUdng, hy vgng se dUdc chQng kien nhQng t h a y ddi tich eUe trong nen chinh tri Thai Lan trong thdi gian tdi. Mac du ehUa chac chan n h u n g vdi ky vgng mgt nen chinh trj binh dn trd lai va kinh te toan cau hdi phuc thi kinh te Thai Lan se ed dude nhQng bQt p h a nha't djnh vdi mQe tang trQdng vd'n dau tU h a n g n a m cao, tang trUdng san xua't cdng nghiep cao se keo theo t a n g trQdng xua't k h a u eao. Vdi ky vgng dd, by vgng r a n g tde do tang trUdng GDP binh q u a n h a n g nam cua nu'dc nay trong thdi gian 10 nam tdi se dat mQc 7- 8%. Vi vay, c h u n g ta cd the se chQng kien Thai Lan trd t h a n h nUde d can tren cua nhdm nUde ed mQe thu n h a p t r u n g binh vao cudl t h a p ky thQ 2 eua the ky 21 va vao dau nhQng nam 2020, nUde nay se trd t h a n h nUde ed mQc thu n h a p eao.
Tuy nhien, day la nhQng du bao mang tinh lac quan vdi dieu kien: (i) trong thap ky tdi se khdng xua't hien mgt eu sd'e kinh te ldn nao ddi vdi ea kinh te Thai Lan va kinh te the gidi; (ii) kinh te the gidi, ma dac biet la cae nen kinh te ldn n h u My, Trung Qud'c, EU va N h a t Ban ludn dat mQe t a n g trUdng k h a va nhu cau nhap k h a u van cad; (iii) tQ do hda va toan eau hda se bude sang mgt giai dean mdi md rgng hdn, hdp tae va hgi n h a p khu vUe va toan cau sau, rgng hdn; (iv) mdi trUdng chinh tri Thai Lan dUdc dn dinh va mdi
36 Nghien citu Dong Narn A li/2010 trQdng k i n h te k h u vQc t h u a n ldi. Neu cae
dieu kien n a y k h d n g dUde d a m bad thi k i n h te nUdc n a y se rdi v a c t i n h t r a n g i ach vdi mQe t a n g trQdng G D P b i n h q u a n h a n g n a m ehi d mQc 3-4% hoac t h a p hdn. Khi dc, viec trd t h a n h nQdc cd mQc t h u n h a p cad van la giac md dd'i vdi ngQdi T h a i . IIL KET L U A N
Tdm lai, giai doan 2001-2010 da chQng kien nhQng t h a y ddi ldn t r o n g n e n k i n h te Thai L a n n h u dd'i m a t vdi suy giam k i n h te k h u vQc, k h u n g h o a n g tai c h i n h toan cau va viec dUa vao ap d u n g cac chfnh sach k i n h te vi md, cae giai p h a p kich thich tai c h i n h thiic hien va ca nhQng cai each cd cau can t h i e t da giup n e n k i n h te T h a i Lan lay lai dilde da t a n g trUdng k h a eao sau khi hdi p h u c tQ cugc k h u n g h d a n g 1997, vdi td'e do G D P ed n a m len tdi 7,1%
(2003) va phuc hdi n h a n h t r e n g thdi gian gan day. Mae du eude k h u n g h o a n g 2008 eung da lam gian doan giai doan gan 10 n a m hdi phuc va t a n g trUdng trd lai cua nen kinh te' T h a i s a u k h u n g h o a n g 1997 va dila k i n h te nude nay vao thdi ky k h u n g h o a n g s a u nhUng vdi nhQng bien p h a p Qng phd va kich thfch k i n h te' ma nude nay ap d u n g t r o n g n a m 2009, h i n h td T h a i da t a n g trUdng trd lai vao n a m 2010.
Hy vgng t r o n g tUdng lai, t a n g trQdng ben vQng va keo dai eua n e n k i n h te T h a i se dat dQdc, giup nude nay n h a n h chdng trd t h a n h nude thugc n h d m t r e n eua mQe t h u n h a p t r u n g b i n h va tQng bQde vUdt qua bude nay de t h a m gia cau lac bd cac nUde ed mQe t h u n h a p eao. Tuy nhien, t a t ea nhQng ky vgng dd se k h d m a d a t dQdc neu
n h u t i n h h i n h ba't dn c h i n h trj t r o n g nQdc k h d n g dQdc k i e m soat va nhQng x u n g dot giQa cac d a n g p h a i k h d n g dQdc giai quyet mdt each t r i e t de./.
TAI L I E U T H A M K H A O
ADB forecasts, A.sia;z Development Outlook 2001.
ASEAN Secretariat (2003), ASEAN Statistical Year Book, J a k a r t a , ASEAN Secretariat 2003, Indonesia.
Talerngsri, Pawin va Vonkhorponi, Pinichanok (2005), Trade policy in T/iailand: purPAiing a dual track approach, ASEAN Economic Eullelin.
Ishita Sukhadwala (2007), Japan-Tliailand Free Trade Agreement Goes into Effect, at:
Ganeshan Wignaraja va cac tac gia (2010), How Do FT As Affect Exporting Finns in Thailand? ADB working Paper Series.
Teernara Bhongmakapat (2006), Thailand's Macroeconomic Policies: From Crisis to Recovery, Thammasat Economic Journal, Vol. 24(2), pp. 51-72.
Second Thailand Information and Communication Technology (Executive Summary), Master Plan (2009-2012), November 2008.
Somchai Jitsuchon and Pat Patanarangsun (2009), "Employment Impacts in Trade and Tourism Sectors from the Global Economic Crisis', Working paper to be presented at 3rd China-ASEAN Forum on Social Development and Poverty Reduction 4th ASEAN+3 High-Level Seminar on Poverty Reduction, 28 September 2009, Hanoi, Vietnam,
International Monetary Fmul (2009), "Global Financial Stability Report: Rc.yjonding to the Financial Crisis and Measuring Systematic Risk" tgi ,
Nguyen Huy Hoang - Mgt sd van de ndi hat ciia kinh teThdi Lan. 37
Nguyen Huy Hoang (2009), "Khung hoang kinh te todn cdu vd tdc dgng ciia no tdi cdc nen kinh te Dong Nam A", Tap chi Nghien cQu Dong Nam A, Ha Noi, Sd 7(112), trang 32-37.
World Bank (2009), Transforming the Rebound into Recovery, East Asia and Pacific Updates November 2009, A World Bank Economic Updates for the East Asia and Pacific Region.
IMF forecasts, The World Economic Outlook Database (September 2001).
CHU THICH
1. Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights
2. (General Agreements on Trade and Services) Quy dinh chung ve thudng mai va dich vu.
3. Theo hiep dinh ve Cac bien phap dau t.U lien quan den cac hoat dong thiidng mai (TRIMsl).
4. Ke hoach nay dUdc chinh phu thong qua vao thang 9/1998 va con keo dai den nhQng nam dau the ky 21 theo khung thdi gian chinh phQ dua ra la til 1998 den 2006.
5. Ly thuyet chung ciia Keynes ve kha nang toan dung lao dgng, ty le lai suat va tien te dUdc thiet lap sau cac cu soc kinh te nham dam bao dn dinh nen kinh te vi mo.
6. De dat dildc muc tieu do, chinh sach chung cua chinh phii la: (i) phat trien ngudn nhan lUc vi con ngitdi la nen tang cho su' phat trien; (ii) thiic hien phat trien kinh te cong nghiep, tap trung nhieu vao cac nganh cong nghiep chien lUdc; (iii) phat trien xa hoi va cong ddng de thiic hien phifdng phap tiep can co sU tham gia cua xa hoi vao sU phat trien va quan ly d dia phildng; (iv) xay dUng mot cd sd nen tang CO tai nguyen dn dinh bang vice tap trung giai quyet Cac van de moi trUdng, ke ca he thdng canh bao thien tai; (v) cai thien he
thong quan tri bang viec khuyen khich thiic hien tinh minh bach trong cac khu viic kinh te cong tU, va cho phep ngiidi dan tham gia vao cac qua trinh phat trien kinh te va xa hgi; va (vi) phat trien cd sd ha tang va thanh lap cac cd quan va to chQc CO tinh chuyen mon hda cao de huy dong day du ngudn liic phuc vu phat trien, 7. Do tac dgng cua khung hoang, xuat khau
cua Thai Lan giam manh trong giai doan tQ quy 4/2008 (giam 22%) den het quy 4/2009. Cu the, xua't khau giam quy I:
19,9%, quy II: 26,2%, quy III: 17,4% va quy IV la; 21,5% da lam cho san suat cong nghiep, nhat la san xuat xua't khau trong nam 2009 giam manh vdi miic giam chung cua san xua't cong nghiep la 8,7%. Tuy nhien, miic suy giam cua nganh che tao xuat khau c6 nhiing quy da len tdi tren dudi 40% da lam cho tinh trang that nghiep tang cao (tdi 2,7% so voi 1,4% nam 2007).
Tang tnfdng GDP ciia Thai Lan trong nam 2009 la -3,5%, co nhQng quy mQc suy giam nay len tdi -7,1% (quy 1/2009).
8. Trong nam 2009, chinh phu Thai Lan da thiic hien hai gdi kich thich kinh te tong tri gia 43,3 ty do la My, chiem tdi hdn 14%
GDP ciia nildc nay. Gdi thQ nha't co tri gia 3,33 ty USD difdc tung ra vao thang 1/2009 va goi thQ hai co gia tri den 1.400 ty bath (tudng dUdng 39 ty USD) dudc tung ra vao cuoi nam 2009 trong no liic kich thich phat trien kinh te den nam 2012.
9. Viec nay ditdc thiic hien thong qua cac bien phap cat giam thue thu nhap, tang khoan lgi tQc cung nhif cac khoan trd cap cho cac ho gia dinh va cat giam thue cho cac doanh nghiep. Trong so' tien cua cac goi kich thich kinh te thi phan ldn cac khoan chi tieu cua chinh phu (den 80% gia tri cua goi kich thich) dildc sQ dung de dau tU vao cd sd ha tang nhu xay diing dUdng sa, nha cUa va cac cong trinh cong cong trong no iQc tao ra nhieu viec lam giai quyet van de an sinh xa hoi va gdp phan thuc day tang trUdng.
