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MOT SO TAC DONG XA HOI CUA BIEN DOI KHI HAU
•'.\H
NGUYfiN THI HOA*
I. BIEN DOI KHI HAU TOAN CAU 1. Khai niem bien doi khi hau
Trong nhiing nam gan day, chiing ta ngay cang nhan thiie dugc miic do tac ddng nghiem trgng cila bien ddi khi hau den san xuat, ddi sdng va mdi trudng tren pham vi toan the gidi.
Va do vay, cdng ddng qudc te va cac qudc gia dang cd nhieu sang kien nham ddi phd vdi nhung tac ddng cd the xay ra cua hien tugng bien ddi khi hau. Vay bien ddi khi hau la gi?
Cdng udc khung ciia Lien hgp qudc (LHQ) ve bien ddi khi hau da dinh nghia nhu sau:
"Bien ddi khi hau la nhiing bien ddi trong mdi trudng vat ly hoac smh hgc gay ra nhijng anh hudng cd hai dang ke den thanh phan, kha nang phuc hdi hoac sinh san ciia cac he sinh thai tu nhien va dugc quan ly hoac den hoat ddng cua cac he thdng kinh te - xa hdi hoac den sue khde va phtic Igi ciia con ngudi."'
Cdn theo Td chiic lien chinh phu ve khi hau (IPCC) thi bien ddi khi hau (BDKH) la nhung thay ddi theo thdi gian ciia khi hau, trong dd bao gdm ca nhiing bien ddi tu nhien va nhijTig bien ddi do cac hoat ddng ciia con ngudi gay ra.^
2. Cac bieu hien cua bien doi khi hau Theo Tong luan "Tac ddng cua bien ddi khi hau toan cau va sir dang cao nudc bien" ciia Trung tam Thdng tin Khoa hgc va Cdng nghe Qudc gia (2008)^ da xac dinh va dua ra cac bieu hien ciia bien ddi khi hau gdm:
- Su ndng len ciia khi quyen va trai dat ndi chung;
- Su thay ddi thanh phan va chat lugng khi quyen cd hai cho mdi trudng sdng ciia con ngudi va cac sinh vat tren trai dat;
- Su dang cao muc nudc bien do bang tan, dan tdi sir ngap ling d cac vung dat thap, cac dao nhd tren bien;
- Su di chuyen ciia cac ddi khi hau tdn tai hang nghin nam tren cac vung khac nhau ciia
trai dat dan tdi nguy co de doa sir sdng cua cac loai sinh vat, cac he sinh thai va hoat ddng cua con ngudi;
- Su thay ddi cudng do hoat ddng ciia qua trinh hoan luu khi quyen, chu trinh tuan hoan nudc trong tu nhien va cac chu trinh sinh dia hoa khac;
- Sir thay ddi nang suat sinh hgc ciia cac he sinh thai, chat lugng va thanh phan ciia thuy quyen, sinh quyen, cac dia quyen.
Sy thay doi nhiet do ben mat trai dat
Bieu dd nhiet do trung binh tren \k mat Trai dSt da tang len trong vdng 140 nam qua (Anh: wvyw.combatclimatechange.ieJ 3. Nguyen nhan cua bien doi khi hau Khi hau trai dat dugc giu dn dinh nhd su can bang va dn dinh can can buc xa mat trdi.
Sir dn dinh dd cd dugc la nhd sir dn dinh cac thanh phdn quan trgng trong khi quyln, dac biet la cac loai khi cd kha nang biic xa va phan
* Nguyen Thj Hoa, CN, Vifn Nghien cuu Moi truong va Phat trien ben vung.
1. Cong uoc khung ciia LHQ \l BDKH 2. T6 chue lien chinh phii ve khi hau (IPCC) 3. Tong luan: "Tac dong ciia bien d6i khi hau toan cau va su dan eao nuae bien" - Trung tam Th6ng tin Khoa hoc va Cong nghe Qu6c Gia, 2008
ES
Nguy&n Thi Hoa - Mot so tac dong xa hoi cua bien doi khi hau xa biic xa mat trdi cd cac budc sdng khac
nhau. Thanh phan quan trgng trong khi quyin cd kha nang dd la khi nha kinh. Dd la cac loai khi trong sudt ddi vdi cac biic xa sdng ngSn nhung cd kha nang phan xa va ngan can biic xa sdng dai. Hau het cac khi nay tdn tai trong tu nhien va nhd cd chiing ma khi hau trai dat am ap vdi mudn loai sinh sdng hien nay.
Tuy nhien, su phat trien ciia khoa hgc ky thuat va phat trien kinh te - xa hdi cua eon ngudi da bd sung them vao khi quyen mot khdi lugng Idn cac loai khi nha kinh dd va nhiing loai khi nha kinh khac hoan toan do con ngudi tao ra nhu khi CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs va SFg. Trong dd, khi CO2 la loai khi nha kinh quan trgng nhat do cac hoat ddng ciia con ngudi tao ra. Tir nam 1970 den nam 2004, phat thai hang nam ciia loai khi nay tang khoang 80%. Va day la mot trong sd nhung nguyen nhan khien trai dit ndng din len. Hau het su gia tang nhiet do trung binh tren toan chx quan sat dugc tir giiia the ky 20 cd the do tang ndng do khi nha kinh. Dieu nay dan den mot loat cac hien tugng cue doan nhu hien tugng bang tan, gia tang muc nudc bien, bao nhiet ddi tang,... Ngoai ra, nhiing hanh ddng khai thac nang lugng khdng theo quy hoach ciia con ngudi dang gdp phan lam pha huy he sinh thai tu nhien dan den hien tugng mat can bang sinh thai, ciing la mot nguyen nhan gay ra bien ddi khi hau.
Nhu vay, ta cd the khai quat nguyen nhan chinh lam bien ddi khi hau trai dat la do sir gia tang cac hoat ddng tao ra cac chat thai khi nha kinh, cac boat ddng khai thac qua miic cac be hdp thu khi nha kinh nhu sinh khdi, rimg, cac he sinh thai bien, ven bd va tren dat lien.
II. M Q T S O TAC DONG XA HOI CUA BlfiN DOI KHI HAU
Tac ddng ciia bien ddi khi hau den xa hdi dien ra d nhieu mat, nhieu chieu canh ciia xa hdi. Trong khudn khd bai viet nay, chiing tdi chi dg cap tdi nhiing tac ddng ciia bien doi khi hau den cac van de ve quyen con ngudi, cdng bang xa hdi, ngheo ddi, sue khde va phat trien con ngudi.
1. Quyen con nguoi
Tu trudc den nay, nhiing quan tam v8 bien ddi Idii hau toan cau thudng qua tap trung vao nhiing van de kinh te, ky thuat hon la tac ddng va hau qua ciia nd ddi vdi con ngudi.
Bien ddi khi hau toan cau can phai dugc thao luan va nghien cuu tir gdc do quy^n con ngudi thi mdi cd y nghia. Dd chinh la binh dien nhan van khi ban ve van de bien ddi khi hau toan cau.
Dieu 3 ciia Tuyen ngdn qudc te ve Nhan quyen khang dinh: "Mdi ngudi deu cd quy§n sdng, quyen tu do va an ninh than thS"." Th6 nhung, theo sd lieu ciia Td chiic dien dan Nhan dao toan cau, thi trung binh mdi nam cd tdi 300.000 ngudi thiet mang va 300 trieu ngudi khac bi anh hudng do bien ddi khi hau.
Tdi nam 2030, mdi nam cd khoang 500.000 ngudi chet do nang ndng, lii lut, bao va chay rimg. Dieu nay tac ddng nghiem trgng den quyen sdng ciia con ngudi tren trai dat.
Ngoai ra, bien ddi khi hau cdn lam cho con ngudi khdng the tu do lam nhirng gi minh mudn khi van de d nhiem da trd thanh van nan. Them nira, siic khde con ngudi ciing bi anh hudng nghiem trgng bdi nhiing tac ddng ciia bien ddi khi hau gay ra,... Day chinh la nhung thach thiic Idn ddi vdi con ngudi ma khdng the giai quyet trong mot thdi gian ngan. Nd ddi hdi phai dugc nhin nhan nghiem tiic va cd su lien ket chat che giiia cac qudc gia tren toan the gidi de giai quyit.
2. Cong bang xa hoi
Hien tugng bien ddi khi hau dang khien chiing ta phai nhin nhan ve sir cdng bang trong xa hdi va mdi tuong quan phu thuoc giiia con ngudi vdi nhau, dieu nay mang mot y nghia sau xa.
Cdng bang xa hdi la muc tieu cot Idi ciia chinh sach xa hdi, nham hudng tdi dn dinh xa hdi, khdng ngimg nang cao chat lugng ddi sdng nhan dan va sir phat trien ben vung.
Thuc hien cdng bang xa hdi ddi hdi phai nhan
4. Tuyen ngon Nhan quyen, My.
NQhien CLTU Phat then ben viJmQ. so 1 (26) - ThanQ 3/2010
NguySn Thi Hoa - Mot so tac dong xa hoi cua bien doi khi hau ...
thiic va giai quyet diing dan, hai hda cac mdi quan he Igi ich. Cdng bang xa hdi d day de cap den 2 chieu canh can quan tam:
Thu nhdt, trong quan diem phat trien ben viing, nguyen tac cdng bang giiia cac the he ddng vai trd trgng tam. Chiing ta da biet, phat triln ben vung la nham dap ling nhiing nhu ciu ciia cac the he hien tai ma khdng lam tdn hai den kha nang cua cac the he tuong lai.
The nhung, each thiic tieu thu nang lugng ciia chiing ta tir trudc den nay dang gay ra nhirng mdn ng sinh thai rat Idn ma cac the he tuong lai se phai ganh chiu. Tat nhien, phat trien ben vung khdng cd nghia la mdi the he se bao toan tuyet ddi, khdng tac ddng gi len mdi trudng tu nhien. Dieu can giii gin la nhiing co hdi cho cac the he tuong lai dugc thuc su tu do, chgn lira va theo dudi cudc sdng nhu minh mong mudn.
Thic hai, van dh cdng bang ngay trong hien tai ciing dugc dat ra la mot van de cap thiet can quan tam: ngudi ngheo phai chiu hau qua cua bien ddi khi hau nang ne hon, phu nii thudng ganh hoa nang hon so vdi nam gidi khi bi thien tai (do kha nang di chuyen; kien thiic ban che do khdng dugc giao due day du;
quyen phap ly ddi vdi dat dai, tai san han che nen khdng tiep can dugc tdi nhirng khoan tin dung khac phuc hau qua thien tai,...). Mot thuc te cho thay, dai bd phan lugng khi thai nha kinh tdn tai trong bau khi quyen la do cac nudc giau va ngudi dan ciia hg phat thai ra.
Cdn cac nudc ngheo va ngudi dan cua hg lai phai tra gia dat nhat cho bien ddi khi hau.
Neu de nhirng ngudi ngheo phai chiu ganh nang tu van de bien ddi khi hau ma hg khdng gay ra, thi dd chinh la sir bat binh dang va bat cdng trong xa hdi phat trien. Day cGng la khia canh dao due trong xa hdi, vi mot phan nen tang dao due ciia bat ky xa hdi nao ciing can dugc danh gia dua tren each xa hdi dd ddi xu vdi nhiJng thanh vien de bi tdn thuong nhat ciia minh ra sao.
BiSn ddi khi hau cdn dang dat ra nhiing cau hdi hoc biia ve van de dao dtic, ve mdi lien he giiia con ngudi vdi con ngudi trong xa
hdi. Nhung hanh ddng ciia chiing ta hien nay thdng qua bien ddi khf hau cd the tac ddng tdi nhirng ngudi ngheo sdng each rat xa chiing ta ve khoang each dia ly, cd the tac ddng tdi cac the he tuong lai, khdng chi ban than con chau chiing ta ma cdn la con chau cua nhirng ngudi dan tren toan the gidi. Nhu vay, viec xem nhe nhiing trach nhiem xuat phat tu mdi tuong quan phu thuoc ciia con ngudi vdi nhau ve mat sinh thai va tir dd gay ra bien ddi khi hau se ddng nghia vdi sir phii nhan nhiing gia tri dao diic ciia con ngudi. Dieu nay ddi hdi chiing ta can cung nhau chia se de ngan chan mot cudc khung hoang nhan dao toan cau.
Day la bai toan khd ve dao due xa hdi ma chi dugc giai dap bang cdng ly, cdng bang, trach nhiem va nghia vu cua mgi qudc gia, moi thanh vien trong xa hdi.
3. Ngheo doi
Xet den cung, cac tac ddng ciia bien ddi khi hau nhu da ndi d tren, la mot trong nhiing nguyen nhan chinh gay ddi ngheo, dau khd cho con ngudi va lam giam ca hdi phat trien cua hg. Dac biet la ddi vdi ngudi ngheo d nhijng nudc dang phat trien va cham phat trien. Theo cac nha nghien ciin ciia Dai hgc Purdue (An Do) cac van de khi hau nhu nang ndng, han han, va mua Idn anh hudng den 16 nudc dang phat trien. Cdng nhan d thanh thi cd the phai chiu dung nhieu nhit tir biln ddi khi hau khi chi phi cho luong thuc tang cao day hg vao canh ngheo ddi. Cac nghien ciiu tren the gidi chi ra rang hm ndng toan cSu cd the lam tang tan sd xuat hien va cudng do ciia cac dot nang ndng, lu lut va han ban d nhieu khu vuc. Se rat quan trgng n6u bill dugc cac nhdm kinh te xa hdi nao hay quoc gia nao xay ra su thay ddi trong ty le ngheo nhim dua ra cac quyet dinh chinh sach diing dan.
Nhung sd lieu sau day cho thiy tac ddng ciia ban ban tai Etiopia len ngudi ngheo nhu the nao. Ty le ngheo ddi quan sat thiy tren thuc tg la 47,3% trong khi ty le ngheo ddi theo du doan khi khdng bi ban ban la 33, 1%
va ty le ngheo ddi theo du doan khi khdng bi chan ddng gi ca chi la 29,4%. Ta thSy cd su
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NQhien ciru Phat then ben vurnQ. so 1 (26) - Thano 3/2010Nguy§n Thj Hoa - Mot so tac dong xa hoi cCia bien doi khi hau chenh lech xk Idn, tdi 17,9%) dan sd bi diy tdi
tinh trang ngheo ddi do tac ddng ciia thien tai (Dercon, 2004).
Ngudi ngheo tren th8 gidi dang phai ddi mat vdi su gia tang lien tuc cua nhiing nguy co va tdn thuong gin lien vdi khi hau: ddi ngheo va phat trien con ngudi thip; chenh lech trong phat triln con ngudi; thieu ca sd ha tSng bao ve khi hau; tiep can ban che den bao hilm.^
Khi chan ddng khi hau giang xudng se de dga ve siic khde va dinh duong, mit tai san, tien ciia tiet kiem, hu hai nha cua vat dung, hoac mua mang bi pha hoai. Neu ngudi giau cd the ddi phd bang bao hiem, ban tai san hoac nit tien tiet kiem thi ngudi ngheo budc phai that chat tieu diing, cat giam dinh dudng, bat con cai phai bd hgc hay phai ban di chinh nhiing tu lieu san xuat ma dua vao dd hg mdi phuc hdi dugc. Dieu nay dan den tinh trang da ngheo lai cang ngheo ban. Day chinh la cai vdng luan quan khien ngudi ngheo khd cd the thoat ra dugc.
BANG 1. Han ban ffMalauy-nguoi ngheo doi pho ra sao
;, Dom vi tinh: % tren tong so ngudi
Hanh vi doi pho vol han han nam 1999 Dieu chinh bCra an - An rau thay thjt - An de de duge lau hon - Bot bira trong ngay - An nhieu thuc khac nhu
san, ngo Giam chi tieu
- Giam mua ciii dot, sap - Giam mua phan bon Kiem tien mua gao - Rut dan tien tiet kiem - Vay mugn
- Kiem viec vat lam them - Ban gia siic gia cam - Ban quan ao, vat dung
trong nha
- Dua tre di kiem tien
Tinh Blantyre
73 47 46 41
63 38 25 36 19 17 11 10
Vung nong thon Zomba
93 91 91 89
83 33 0 7 59 15 6 0
Nhu vay ta thay, cudc chien chdng ddi ngheo va cudc chien chdng anh hudng ciia bien ddi khi hau cd mdi quan he qua lai mat thiet vdi nhau.
4. Sue khoe
Theo Du bao ciia IPCC, bien ddi khi hau se tac ddng tdi siic khde con ngudi thdng qua cac he thong phiic tap bao gdm thay ddi nhiet do, nguy CO thien tai va cac hien tugng khi hau cue doan, tiep can dinh dudng, chat lugng khdng khi va nhiSu phuong dien khac. Hien nay nhiing tac ddng nhd ve siic khde dugc du bao kha chac chan la se gia tang manh me d tat ca cac nudc va khu vuc, ma tac ddng d cac nudc thu nhap thap la tdi te nhdt.
Cdn theo "Du bao phat triln con ngudi", bien ddi khi hau se tac ddng tdi siic khde con ngudi theo nhilu each khac nhau. Nhung ngudi dugc trang bi kem nhat d6 ddi phd vdi nguy CO sue khde dang bien ddi, chii yeu la ngudi ngheo d cac nudc ngheo, se phai chiu hau qua siic khde di xudng. Siic khde kem la mot trong nhirng nhan td kim ham tilm nang phat trien con ngudi ciia cac hg ngheo. Bien ddi khi hau se lam tram trgng them vSn dk.
Theo IPCC (2006), thiet hai do thien tai vi bien ddi khi hau trong 2 thap ky qua lam 3 trieu ngudi chet, 200 trieu ngudi bi anh hudng. Thiet hai do thien tai trung binh mdi nam len tdi 40 ty USD.
Bien ddi khi hau da va dang lam xudt hien nhieu benh mdi la va da "toan chu hda" nhieu loai benh trudc day chi xay ra trong nhung khu vuc dia ly nhd (sdt ret, sot virut, sdt xuat huyet, HIV, ta, ciim,...). Th8 gidi da ghi nhan 30 can benh mdi xuat hien trong 3 thap ky qua, sir bung nd benh mdi chua timg thay ke tir khi cudc each mang cdng nghiep dua con ngudi sdng tap trung vao cac dd thi (cac benh do d nhiem, tu ky, tram cam,...).
Bao cao ciia Lien hgp qudc ve trien vgng mdi trudng toan cau 2007 da chi rd mdi quan he giiia bien ddi khi hau va sue khde con ngudi the hien trong so dd nhu sau:
Nguon: Devereux 1999 5. UNDP: Bao cao Phat trien con ngiroi 2007/2008.
NQhien ciru Phat then ben vu:nQ. so 1 (26) - ThanQ 3/2010
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NguySn Thi Hoa - Met so tac dong xa hoi cOa bien doi khi hau ...
HINH 1. Moi quan he giira BDKH va sue khoe con nguoi
BDKH ddi khi t Suy giam
tang 03
Sa mac hoa va suy thoai dai
Chiu tac aSng cua tia tii ngoai
Giam ctiLfc nang sinh thai
San xuat n6ng nghiep sinh thai
Di ddi cho d do tang dan so Chat luong v^
so iugng nudc
Bien ddi luong mua
MatDDSHvacan- bang sinh thai .
Giam tai nguyen nirdc ngot
Theo WTO, trai dat ndng len cd the se lam ban 150.000 ngudi chet va 5 trieu ngudi bi mac cac chung benh khac nhau.
HINH 2. Thiet hai ve nguoi vi thien tai Idn giai doan 1985-1999
Lulut49%
Cac thien tai khac 6%
Oong dat, nui 1 ^ 30%
Bao 15%
Ngudn: Moi truong va phat trien ben viJng, NXB Giao due, 2009.
He sinh thai nudi dudng cudc sdng cung cdp cho loai ngudi thiic an, khdng khi va nudc ciing dang bi anh hudng nghiem trgng.
Bien ddi khi hau lam tang mot sd nguy co doi vdi ngudi benh, thay ddi dac tinh trong nhip sinh hgc cua con ngudi. Nhu vay, biln ddi khi hau gay nen nhiSng tac ddng tieu CKC nghiem trgng den siic khde con ngi''^i tren the gidi.
5. Phat trien con nguo'i
Ddi vdi 22 nudc vdi tong dan sd 509 trieu ngudi nam trong nhdm phat trien con ngudi thap theo chi sd phat trien con ngudi (HDI), ngay ca nhiing gia tang rat nhd ve nii ro khi hau ciing cd the dan tdi sir tdn thuong rat Idn.
Bang gia tri sau day cho chiing ta thay rd dieu dd. Chang ban, huyen Turkana la mot trong so nhung huyen phai hd trg luang thuc khan cdp cila Kenia; giai doan 11/2005- 10/2006, huyen nay cd gia tri chi sd phat trien con ngudi nam 2005 trung binh la 0,172. Trong khi dd gia tri chi sd phat triSn con ngudi nam 2005 ciia toan qudc la 0,532 va cua Huyen Nairobi la 0,773. Nhu vay la cd su chenh lech rat Idn ve gia tri chi sd phat trien con ngudi giiia 2 huyen bi han ban va huyen khdng bi han ban tren cung mot dat nudc Kenia.
BANG 2. Tuong quan giua nan doi do han han va phat trien con nguoi 6" Kenia
Cac huyf n cua Kenia
Cdc huy^njjhdi ho trgt luffng thuc khan cap (11/2005-10/2006)' Garissa
Isiolo Mandera Masrabit Mwingi Samburu Turkana Wajir
Cdc huyfn khac Mombassa Nairobi
Trung binh toan qu6e ciia Kenia
Gia trj Chi so phat trien con nguoi
2005
0,267 0,580 0,310 0,411 0,501 0,347 0,172 0,256 0,769 0,773 0,532 Nguon: UNFDP 2006a; USAID FEWS NET 2007
Bao cao Phat triln con ngudi 2007/2008 da xac dinh 5 ca chS tac ddng chinh, ma qua dd, biln ddi khi hau cd the chan dung va day lui qua trinh phat triln con ngudi nhu sau:
- San xuat ndng nghiep va an ninh luong thuc;
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NQhien ciru Phat then ben vCrnQ. so 1 (26) - ThanQ 3/2010Nguyin Thj Hoa - Mot so tac dong xa hoi cua bien doi khi hau
- Khiing hoang nudc va tinh trang bit an ninh ve nudc;
- Nudc bien dang dang va nguy ca thien
t a i ; • ' ,
- Cac he sinh thai va da dang sinh hgc;
- Sue khde con ngudi.
Cac CO che nay cd mdi quan he qua lai vdi cac qua trinh van hanh kinli te, xa hdi va sinh thai tao ca hdi cho phat trien con ngudi.
Trai ngugc vdi cac chan ddng kinh te chi gay anh hudng tdi tang trudng hay lam phat, nhieu tac ddng ve mat phat trien con ngudi (nhu mat di ca hdi ve y te va giao due, tiem nang san xuat bi suy giam, mat di nhiing he sinh thai,...) cd y nghia sdng cdn vi nd lien quan true tiep tdi cudc sdng con ngudi.
Su phat trien con ngudi la su md rdng co hdi phat trien va tu do lira chgn cac ca hdi phat trien. Riii ro lien quan tdi khi hau budc con ngudi phai danh ddi cac nhu cau de tdn tai, vi nhu thay vi an thit, ngudi ta phai an rau, thay vi dugc di hgc thi phai di lam de cd thu nhap trang trai cho cudc sdng,... Dieu dd dan tdi viec ban che ca ban sir tu do va xdi mdn sir lua chgn cac co hdi phat trien.
Ve mat dinh dudng: chan ddng khi hau nhu ban ban, lii lut cd the gay sut giam ghe gdm tinh trang dinh duong khi luong thuc khan hiem, gia ca leo thang, va co hdi viec lam thu hep. (Chang han, dgt ban ban nam 2005 d Kenia da lam cho 3,3 trieu ngudi d 26 quan huyen cd nguy ca chet ddi. O huyen Kajiado, 30% tre em thieu can so vdi 6%
trong nhirng nam mua thuan gid hda).^
Ve giao due: ddi vdi nhiing hd ngheo nhat, ngudn cung lao ddng gia tang vi phai dua tre em tir Idp hgc ra ngoai thi trudng lao ddng.
(d Niracagoa sau bao Mitch, sd tre em trong cac hd bi tac ddng di lam thay vi di hgc tang tir 7,5% tdi 15,6%).^
Vi mat sue khoe: chan ddng khi hau de dga nghiem trgng tai san quy nhat ciia ngudi ngheo la siic khde va sue lao ddng ciia hg.
(Thuc tS d mihn Trung Mehicd trong thai ky 1998-2000 cho thay, tre em dudi 5 tudi dl 6m
hon khi cd chan ddng thdi tiet: xac sudt tre em bi dm tang 16% khi ban ban va 41% khi lii lut. Bien ddi khi hau da vat kiet tai san, vdn vat chat, cudp di co hdi cua con ngudi).^
Nhung danh ddi ke tren dan den tinh trang vdng luan quan phat trien con ngudi thdp khdng cd Idi ra. Tuong tu nhu vdng ngheo ddi, vdng phat trien con ngudi thap nay sinh khi ngudi ta khdng the vugt qua ngudng de kien tao mot vdng tien bd mdi trong phat tri?r_ nang lire. Bien ddi khi hau la mot trong nhiing nhan td manh me nhat duy tri vdng ph'it trien con ngudi thap (cung vdi vdng ludn quan ciia ngheo ddi). Riii ro gia tang gan lien vdi bien ddi khi hau cd tiem nang lam tang them nhiing vdng thiet thdi nay trong tuong lai.
III. TAC DONG CUA BIEN DOI KHI HAU DEN XA HOI Of VIET NAM Viet Nam la mot trong nhirng qudc gia rat de xay ra nhiing kieu thdi tiet khac nghiet nhat va thudng xuyen chiu anh hudng ciia bao bien, bao nhiet ddi, lii lut va han ban.
Nhiing thien tai nay gay ra lut Igi d vung triing (vi du tran lut thang 11 nam 2008 tai Ha Ndi), lut tai ddng bang sdng Cuu Long (2000, 2001) va bao lii (ddng bang sdng Hong, khu vuc Mien Trung). Cac khu vuc dia hinh cao mua Idn thudng xay ra hi quel, gay ra Id dat, lam tang lugng phu sa bdi lang trong cac con sdng, dieu nay lai dan den tinh trang lut idi nang ne d ha luu. Cac hinh thai bao rat bat thudng va trong khi sir bat dn van tiep tuc dugc duy tri trong the ky tdi thi theo udc tinh tan xuat cac tran bao se tang len va cac khu vuc ven bien se phai hung chiu nhiing tran bao cd siic tan pha khiing khiep hon. Theo nhiing udc tinh gan day, tong thiet hai do thien tai, dac biet la bao lut va Id dat chiem gdn 1% GDP ciia ca nudc.
6. UNDP: Bao cao phat triln con nguoi 2007/2008, tr92.
7. UNDP: Bao cao phat triln eon nguoi 2007/2008, tr93.
8. UNDP: Bao cao phat triln eon nguoi 2007/2008, tr93.
NQhien cCru PhM trien ben vCrnp. so 1 (26) - ThanQ 3/2010
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Nguyen Thj Hoa - Mot so tac dong xa hoi cCia bien doi khi hau Theo bao cao danh gia ICCP Ian thii 4 xuat
ban nam 2007, nhiet do trung binh toan cau trong giai doan tir 1906-2005 da tang khoang 0,74°C va xu hudng am len trong vdng 50 nam vira qua so vdi 50 nam trudc dd.
Sd lieu ciia Bd Tai nguyen va Mdi trudng (MONRE) cdng bd vao thang 6 nam 2009 ciing cho thay, trong vdng 50 nam qua (1958 - 2007), nhiet do trung binh d Viet Nam da tang tu 0,5 den 0,7^C; nhiet do miia ddng tang nhanh ban so vdi nhiet do mua he, va nhiet do d cac khu vuc phia Bac tang nhanh hon so vdi cac khu vuc phia Nam. Nhiet do trung binh hang nam trong 4 thap ky tir 1961 - 2000 cao hon so vdi 3 thap ky trudc dd (1931 - 1960).
Trong nhiing nam gan day, Viet Nam chiu anh hudng ciia nhieu tran bao han va cd cudng do manh ban. Cac can bao cd xu hudng chuyen xudng phia Nam va mua bao cd xu hudng ket thiic mudn ban. Cac con bao cd hudng di chuyen bat binh thudng ciing nhieu hon. Muc nudc bien tai Hdn Dau tang gan 20cm so vdi 50 nam trudc. Nhiing tac ddng ciia bien ddi khi hau cd the xay ra d nhung vung ven bien bao gdm: giam dat ndng nghiep va dat dinh cu; nhiem man do nudc bien xam thuc vao cac ciia bien, dac biet la vao mua khd; tang thiet hai do lii va tang benh tat d ngudi va ddng vat,... Tuy nhien, nhin ve lau dai, viec nudc bien dang cao ciing tao nhieu ca hdi mdi vi du nhu md rdng nudi trdng thiiy san.
Do nhirng tac ddng tich luy len cac tai nguyen thien nhien, san xuat ndng nghiep, san lugng cdng nghiep va nang suat lao ddng va CO sd ha tang, phat trien kinh te tdng the ciing cd the phai ddi mat vdi nhiing thach thiic Idn. Sir thuc la cac khu du lich va phat triln cdng nghiep mdi d Viet Nam hau het dhx nim d nhiing vung ven bien va ddng bdng - nai de cLiu anh hudng cua hien tugng triSu cudng (va hien tugng xdi Id dudng bd biSn), bao bien, bao nhiet ddi va hien tugng xam man vao ngudn nudc nggt cung vdi nhiing tac ddng khac ciing de lai nhiing hau qua nghiem trgng va tao ra khdng it nhiing nii ro cho dau tu.
1. Van de sinh ke cua nguoi dan
La mot trong 5 quoc gia hang dau tren the gidi cd kha nang de tdn thuong do tac ddng ciia bien ddi khi hau, Viet Nam da dugc Lien hgp qudc chgn la qudc gia de tien hanh nghien cuu dien hinh ve bien ddi khi hau va phat trien con ngudi. Theo dd, sinh ke ciia ngudi Viet dang bi de dga nghiem trgng bdi nhiing thay ddi toan cau, ddi hdi mot tam nhin dai hai, mot ke hoach cu the va mang tinh chien luge. Tren thuc te, sinh ke ciia hang chuc trieu ngudi Viet Nam dang bi de dga vdi nhiing anh hudng ciia bien ddi khi hau. Van de nay va nhiing he qua ciia nd dang khien cho cudc sdng ngudi ngheo va nhirng ngudi can ngheo Viet Nam d vung niii, vung bien, vung ddng bang bj de dga. Lugng mua that thudng va ludn bien ddi. Nhiet do tang cao ban, tinh hinh thdi tien khde liet ban; tan suat va cudng do cua nhung dgt bao lii, trieu cudng tang dot bien; cac dich benh xuat hien va Ian tran; tinh trang thieu ngudn nudc tang cao. Dien tich rimg ngap man ciing bi tac ddng manh; phan bd rung nguyen sinh, thii sinh cd the dich chuyen; nguy ca tuyet chiing cac loai ddng thuc vat gia tang; nguy ca chay rimg, phat tan dich benh ngay cang hien hien;
ngudn thuy, hai san cd thi bi phan tan,... Cac chuyen gia canh bao rang, rieng viec nudc bien dang cao cd thi khiln 22 trieu ngudi Viet Nam indt nha d, mot phdn Idn dien tich ciia ddng bSng sdng Hdng va sdng Cuu Long cd the bi ngap lut do nudc biln dang.
Vung duyen hai Bdc Trung Bd la mot trong nhiing khu vuc chiu nhilu nii ro ciia bien ddi khi hau nhdt va la mot trong nhung vung cd pham vi va miic do ngheo ddi cao nhat, nguyen nhan mot phdn cd thi la do nhiing tac ddng lich sii ciia thien tai. Dai bd phan dan sd vung nay lam ndng nghiep hoac ngudn sinh ke ciia hg phu ^hudc vao nhiing ngudn tai nguyen thien nhien (nudc, rimg, thiiy san), do dd hoan canh sdng ciia hg bi tac dgng nghiem trgng bdi nhirng dilu kien thdi tiet. Hien tugng tang tdn sudt cac hinh thai khi hau khde nghiet d vung nay dugc quan
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NQhien ciru Phat trien ben wno. so 1 (26) - Thano 3/2010NguySn Thi Hoa - Mot so tac dong xa hoi cua bien doi khi hau tam dac biet vi nd ciing lam tang thdi gian
khac phuc hau qua ciia nhiing hd ngheo va tai tao nhiing tai san de doi phd vdi nhung tac ddng keo dai do biln ddi khi hau gay ra. Cac hinh thai khi hau khde nghiet va nhiing biln ddi khdng theo mua cd the gay ra nhiing tac ddng nghiem trgng anh hudng din sinh kl cac hg gia dinh va cdng ddng.
Nhiing tac ddng cua nii ro khi hau rdt da dang va cd the dugc hieu theo nhilu each khac nhau. Vi du, ngudi dan tinh Ha Tinh phan biet nhiing tac ddng ciia ban ban gay
thiet hai Idn nhat cho nhiing hoat ddng san xuat ndng nghiep, trong khi bao va Idc xoay lai dang sg nhat vi chiing nguy hiem nhdt ddi vdi ngudi va tai san. Tren thuc te, nhung kinh nghiem ve nii ro do bao va Idc xoay ciing nhu nhirng ca tu vong hay chan thuong cd the lam tdn thuong tam ly nghiem trgng. Bang sau day md ta nhiing nii ro thdi tilt dang chii y nhat ma ngudi dan d 4 xa nghien ciiu thudng xuyen trai qua tai thdi diem nghien ciin (thang 4/2009) va nhiing tac ddng ciia nhiing nii ro nay len ngudn sinh ke.
BANG 3. Tac dong ciia thien tai den sinh kl cua ngudi dan tai mot so xa thuoc cac tinh Bac Trung Bo
Nhirng riii ro thoi
tiet chu yeu Tac dQng len nguon sinh ke Ha Tinh
Xa Hong Lpc
XaKyNinh
Han han, thai tiet lanh, bao
Bao, han han, nuoc bien dang va xoi mon
- Han han: nang suat san xuat thap/hoa mau chit do thilu nuoc vi xa nam cuoi h | thong thiiy Igi Song En
- Thai tiet lanh: vat nuoi chet; nong dan o trong nha
- Bao: thiet hai nguon thiiy san; tai san ho gia dinh bj tan pha - Bao: thiet hai nghiem trong tai san ho gia dinh, co so ha tang
va nguon thuy san
- Han ban: nhung van de nghiem trong cho nganh nong nghiep vi xa nam cuoi he thong tirai tieu song Rae
- Nuoc bien dang: xam man va xoi m6n->mat dat va tai san, tai nguyen nuae bi muoi hoa
Hue Xa Quang An XaVTnh Hien
Lii lut, bao, thai tiet lanh, ngot hoa Bao, lu, song Ian, boi tich (mat cua song), thai tiet lanh, ngot hoa
- Bao: khong the ra khai; thiet hai tai san va ea so ha tang - Lu lut: mat mua; thiet hai tai san ho gia dinh
- Thai tiet lanh: hoa mau bi chet
- Ngot hoa: cac san pham nuoi trong thiiy san tang truong cham/chet
Ngudn: UNDP/MONRE Du an doi ngheo va moi truong, 2009
2. Van de quyen con nguoi
Quan he giiia bien ddi khi hau ddi vdi cac quyen con ngudi la quan he tuong tac. Ndi each khac, biln ddi khi hau se anh hudng tieu cue din cac quyen con ngudi, va ngugc lai, dam bao quyin con ngudi ddi hdi phai ling phd thda dang ddi vdi bien ddi khi hau.
Trudc hit la quyen lam viec. Quyen ve viec lam cd quan he mat thiet din "quyen cd
miic sdng thda dang". Tuy nhien, thuc te tren nhieu vung d nudc ta cho thay: viec dam bao quyen cd miic sdng thda dang ciia ngudi dan cd the bi anh hudng va tuy thuoc rat nhieu vao dilu kien thien nhien. Bien ddi khi hau tuy khdng phai la sir tudc doat quyen sd hiiu vl ddt dai xet vl mat phap ly, song trong thuc tl, dd la mot sir tudc doat ghe gdm ciia thien nhien doi vdi quyen dugc tiep can vdi tu lieu
NQhien ciru Phat then ben vOrnQ. so 1 (26) - ThanQ 3/2010
Nguy&n Thi Hoa - Mot so tac dong xa hoi cCia bien doi khi hau san xuat quan trgng nay. Nd lam cho dat dai
bi sat Id, xdi mdn do mau md, bi phii cat, nhiem phen, man,... lam cho ndng dan thilu rudng dat de trdng trgt, ngu dan thilu viec lam do suy thoai mdi trudng bien,...
Tiep den la quyen song vd quyen cua moi ngudi dat tdi mot tieu chudn sire khoe ve the chat vd tinh thdn d muc cao nhdt co the dugc (dieu 12 - Cac van kien qudc te ve quyen con ngudi, Trung tam nghien cuu quyen con ngudi). C) nudc ta, rieng trong thang 8/2008, tran mua lii Idn nhat trong 22 nam qua d cac tinh mien niii phia Bac da lam 98 ngudi chet.
Ngoai ra, hang loat nhiing benh tat va cai chet do d nhiem tu khi thai, d nhiem ngudn nudc, d nhiem chat thai benh vien va d nhiem thuc pham da va dang dien ra vugt tam kiem soat.
Sau niia la quyen dugc hudng thu tham gia vdo ddi song vdn hoa, nhin tu gdc do mdi trudng ciing dang la mot chu de can nghien cuu. Bien ddi khi hau dang lam xdi mdn quyen dugc hudng thu mdi trudng thien nhien trong sach va nhieu quyen thuoc nhdm quyen ve van hda nhu thudng ngoan danh lam thang canh, cac khu bao tdn thien nhien va dang lam ngheo di tri thiic ve ddng thuc vat ciia cac the he sau. Dieu dd cdn cd nghia tinh trang mat can bang sinh thai se dien ra, hau qua la khd ludng. Viet Nam dugc gidi nghien cuu danh gia la mot trong nhiing qudc gia cd tinh da dang sinh hgc cao nhat the gidi.
Dang tiec la tinh da dang sinh hgc nay dang diing trudc nguy ca suy giam, sd lugng cac loai theo "sach dd" Viet Nam dang bi giam nhanh trong nhiing thap ky qua.
Thuc trang tren day ddi hdi trach nhiem bao ve mdi trudng va chdng lai su bien ddi khi hau nham dam bao cac quyen con ngudi khdng phai chi thuoc ve Nha nudc ma cdn thuoc ve mdi ca nhan va cdng ddng trong xa hdi, khdng phai chi la sir cd gang rieng ciia mdi qudc gia ma can cd sir tham gia ciia cdng ddng qudc te.
3. Van de siic khoe ciia nguoi dan
Viet Nam hien nay, ve ca ban, van la mot nudc cham phat trien; nen kinh te phu thuoc
dang ke vao san xuat ndng nghiep, va nen ndng nghiep dd cdn phu thuoc nhieu vao dieu kien tu nhien, cue ky nhay cam vdi bien ddi khi hau. Su gia tang nhiet do va khd ban, lii lut thudng xuyen va khd du doan cd the de dga true tiep den an ninh luong thuc, gay thiet hai Idn cho chan nudi gia siic, gia cam va nudi trdng thiiy san. Ty le suy dinh dudng tre em da giam manh trong vai thap ky qua, song nhieu benh tat d tre em lai phat sinh.
Nhirng hien tugng khi hau cue doan ciing da va dang gay nhieu thiet hai cho san xuat, sinh boat va sue khde ciia ngudi dan tren cac vung. Ret dam, ret hai keo dai d cac tinh phia Bac lam cay cdi tmi la, rau xanh, hoa mau that bat, gia siic, gia cam bi chet; tre em, ngudi gia bi dm do cac benh ve dudng hd hap,... Dich ciim gia cam biing phat va ciim A H5N1 d ngudi xuat hien trudc va sau dip Tet Nguyen dan. Trong khi dd, TP Hd Chi Minh va nhieu tinh phia Nam lai thudng phai ganh chiu nhiing dgt trieu cudng hay nhiem man do nudc bien xam Ian. Cudc sdng cua ngudi dan nhieu nai bi dao Ion, mudi gay benh sinh sdi manh, benh sdt xuat huyet gia tang.
Tat ca nhirng hien tugng bat thudng do bien ddi khi hau trong nhiing nam qua ciing chi mdi la Idi canh bao ban ddu ciia thien nhien. Vien canh cd le cdn khoe liet hon nhieu. Sir bien ddi khi hau se true tilp de dga sue khde con ngudi bdng nhiing con bao dir, mua lii, khd ban va hda hoan keo theo sir thieu hut thuc pham, nudc uong, thudc men va cac dich vu khac. Nhiet do tang them se lam thay ddi sir phan bd va gia tang cac benh truyen nhiem do nudc va thuc phdm bi d nhiem, do trung gian truyin benh nhu mudi, ruoi, chudt. Khdng khi bi d nhilm, dac biet tdng dzdn bi thung se lam tang ty le hen suyen, benh phdi. Se xudt hien nliiing benh nguy hilm mdi ma chiing ta chua bill dugc.
Benh tat se lam tang sd ngay ndm vien, ngay nghi ciia hgc sinh, ngudi lao ddng, gay tdn thdt Idn cho nin kinh t l ddt nudc. Cac dgt ndng se xuat hien ngay cang day dac ban va dii ddi ban lam tang ty le benh tat va tii vong, nhat la ngudi ngheo, ngudi gia, tre em.
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NQhien ciru Phat then ben vQ-nQ. so 1 (26) - ThanQ 3/2010Nguyen Thi Hda - Mot so tac dong xa hoi cCia bien doi khi hau Cd the ndi, biln ddi khi hau da va dang tac
ddng nghiem trgng din cac ITnh vuc xa hdi khdng chi d cdp do qudc gia ma d cdp do toan cdu. Nd la nguy co va thach thuc khdng chi cho hien tai ma ca thi he tuong lai. Biln ddi khi hau khiln chiing ta phai chii y tdi tai san chung ciia chiing ta - dd la trai ddt. Thi gidi ma chiing ta dang song da thay ddi, vdi nhieu lira chgn ban so vdi thdi ki bdt ddu cdng nghiep hda. Cdng nghe mdi va dac biet la sir chuyen giao hieu qua cac cdng nghe mdi, cac ngudn nang lugng hieu xudt cao va nang lugng tai tao, phuong thuc quan ly ngudn lire dang tin cay cung nguon quy doi dao da tao dieu kien cho cac qudc gia vuon tdi su phat trien ben viing. Cdng dong quoc tl va moi qudc gia can chung tay, gdp siic va hanh ddng ngay de ngan chan tham hga ciia bien ddi khi hau, tien tdi muc tieu phat trien bin viing tren pham vi toan cau./.
' T A I L I E U THAM KHAO
1. Cao Due Thai, Trdn Thi Hong Hanh: "Anh hudmg cua bien doi khi hau, suy thoai moi truong den
eac quyen eon nguai a Viet Nam hifn nay"; Tap chi Nghien ciiu con nguoi; So l(40)/2009.
2. Le Van Khoa: Moi truong va phat triln bin viJng; Nxb Giao due; Ha Noi, 2009.
3. UNDP - WB: Bdo eao phat trien eon nguoi 2007/2008.
4. UNDP/MONRE: Di; an doi ngheo va moi truong: "Xay dung cac chien luge thich ling va thich nghi eiia cac hoat dgng sinh ke ven bien doi voi anh huang ciia bien doi khi hau tai mien Trung Viet Nam", 2009.
5. Trung tam Thong tin Khoa hgc va Cong nghe Quoc gia: Tong luan "Tac dgng eiia bien doi khi hau toan cau va su dang cao nuae bien"; Ha Noi, 2008.
6.
http://www.nhandan.org.vn/tet2009/tinbai/?top=167&
sub=l 70&artiele= 139659.
7.http://www.iuen.org/about/union/seeretariat/offic es/asia/asia_where_work/viemam/news/?uNewsID=23 49.
8.http://khcn.vnuhcm.edu.vn/Source/FCKeditor/edi tor/FileUpload/File/THAM%20LUAN%20Mr%20H_
M_Hien.pdf.
9.http://www.hanoitv.vn/index.php?option=com_e ontent&view=article&id=6665:-chong-bien-doi-khi- hau-su-nghiep-nhan-dao-vi-dai-cua-nhan-loai-
&catid=l 14:bai-viet-bien-doi-khi-hau&Itemid=l 62
NQhien ciru Ph^t then ben VUHQ. so 1 (26)- ThinQ 3/2010
