NGHltN Cl/U
Nghidn cmi nhan to anh huong toi ket qua kinh doanh:
bang chung thuc nghidm tu cac nhom nganh nghd kinh doanh tai Met Nam
Vi$nKetoan-
Nguy^llianhHiSi
- Kiem toan, "ft-iiang Dal hgc Kinh l^ Quoc dan
Bai vidt su dung phuong phap nghidn eiiu dinh lugng, hdi quy FEM, REM va dua hdn md hinh Driseoll-Kraay hidu chinh dd phan tich du lieu vd thao luan ket qua nghien ciiu. Kdt qua nghidn eiiu cbi ra rdng: ddng tidn tii hoat ddng kinh doanh cd dnh hudng tieh cue tdi cd ROE, ROA va EPS d 4 nhdm nganh chinh Id Cdng nghidp, cdng nghe thdng tin, Nguyen vat lieu va Tien ieh cdng cdng. Trai lai, ddng tien thudn tu ho^t ddng ddu tu khdng ed tdc dOng cd y nghia dd'i vdi ROE va EPS d hdu hdt cac nganh kinh td. Cudi cflng, ddng tien tu hoat dOng tdi chinh cflng chi cd anh hudng tich cue tdi ROE, ROA va EPS d nganh cdng nghiep, cdng nghd thdng tin vd ngdnh nguydn v$t lieu.
1. Gidi tiiieu
Kd todn theo ca sd ddn tich dugc hau hdt cac nude hdn thd gidi ap dung. Tcii cac nude Chau Au, ke tu nam 1978 chuyen hudng tu dp dyng kd todn theo ca sd tidn sang ap dyng kd toan theo co sd ddn ti'ch. Tai Hoa Ky, cac doanh nghiep bdt budc phai ap dyng ke tddn thed co sd ddn tich khi lap Bao cao tai chinh, phdi cung cdp cdc thdng tin ve khd nang tao tidn cua docuih nghidp chfl khdng chi cung cdp cdc thdng tin vd cdc khoan da thuc thu, thyc chi (FASB, 1978). Theo CO sd ddn tich, lgi nhuan cfla doanh nghiep duoc xac dinh bdi doanh thu vd chi phi. Didu do cd nghia la: Lgi nhuan = Ddng tidn thuan + Cac thdnh phdn ddn tich cd trong lgi nhuan.
Chinh VI vay, nghien ctm tim hidu quan he gitra ddng tidn va kdt qua hoat ddng kinh doanh la rdt cd y nghia. Dd tdi ndy cOng thu hflt dugc sy nghidn ctm eua mdt sd hgc gia tuy nhien cac kdt qud nghien cflu chua thdng nhdt ve dnh hudng cfla ddng Udn tdi khd nang sinh lgi. Tuy nhidn, chua cd nghidn ciiu nao tai Viet Nam trong nhtrng nam gdn day d cdc ngdnh kinh te de gdp phdn bd sung them cac bdng chiing thuc nghidm cho tdng quan cdc nghien ciiu trdn the gidi.
2. Tong quan ngtiien ciiu
Ke tddn theo co sd ddn tich cung cdp thdng tin hiru ich va todn didn. Elliott vd Ellioti (2007) cho rdng tiidng tin kd tddn theo co sd tidn mat ddng tin cay hon thdng tin kd todn theo co sd don tich do kd todn theo ea sd tidn mat chi ghi nhan nhting thdng tin vd ddng tien thiJC td cua doanh nghidp ma khdng dy tinh tnrdc kha nang phat sinh ddng tien cfla doanh nghidp hong tuong lai.
Trong nhting nam gdn day, mgt sd hgc gia da md rdng nghien cim ve ddng tien va lgi nhuan. Ogbeide vd Akanji (2017) xem xdt md'i quan hd gitia ddng Hdn vd hieu qua tai chinh cfla cac cdng ty bad hidm trong ndn kinh td dang phat trien - Nigeria. Su dung dfl lidu chudi tiidi gian trong giai doan 2009-2014, 27 cdng ty bao hiem dugc lidt kd d Nigeria da dugc chgn 1dm cd mdu.
Nghidn ciiu sii dung cd thdng ke md ta va suy lu^n dd xac djnh mdi quan he giua cac bidn. Nd cung su dung mdt loat eac thu nghidm chdn dodn dd dam bao ti'nh dn dinh cua chudi thdi gian dugc sfl dyng cflng nhu de dam bao md hinh dap tmg gia dinh cfla binh phuang danh sach thdng thudng. Cac phat hidn cho thdy ddng tien duge quan sat dd xac djnh hieu qua tdi chinh cfla cdng ty bao hiem vd cd y nghia tiidng ke.
Ddng tidn tir boat ddng kinh doanh dugc quan sdt thdy lam tang ddng kd hieu qud tdi chinh cfla cdc cdng ty bao hidm hong giai doan dugc kiem tra. Ddng tien til hoat ddng tai chinh da dugc tim thdy dd tang hidu qud tai chinh cda cdc cdng ty bdo hidm dugc Idy mdu, nhung khdng cd y nghia thdng ke. Quy md cua cdng ty bao hidm khdng iam tang hidu qud tdi chinh cua cdc edng ty bao hiem va cung khdng cd y nghia thdng ke.
Hamza (2014) da thuc hidn mdt cudc dieu tra dd Um eau ha ldi cho cau hdi vd mdi quan he gitia ndi dung thdng tin cua bao cao luu chuydn tidn td va lgi nhudn chiing khodn cua cdc cdng ty bao hidm d Syria. Ndi dung nghien etru thdng tin cfla bad cao luu chuydn tidn td bao gdm ddng tien ttr hoat ddng dieu hanh, ddu tu vd tdi hg va ket hgp ddng Udn tu hoat ddng. Hamza (2014) da chia cac cdng ty bao hiem trong mdu Uianh: (1) Cac cdng ty bao hidm qude td; (2) Cdng ty bdo hidm qude gia, (3) Cdng ty bad hiem Hoa Ky va (4) Cdng ty bao hidm Aquila. Ket qud anh hudng cfla ddng tidn ddi vdi
tung loai cdng ty id khdc nhau. Ddi vdi nhdm 1, tde gid da tim tfidy mdt tde dOng ti'ch eye giua ddng Udn tii hoat dOng dieu hdnh vd boat ddng ddu tiJ sang EPS nhung khdng tim thdy mdi quan hd dang kd gitia ddng tidn hi hogt ddng tdi chinh va ddng tien kdt hgp vdi EPS. Ddi vdi nhdm 2, ddng tidn tu hdat ddng tai chinh cd lidn quan Udu cyc ddn EPS va khdng Udn quan ddn ddng tidn tti ede heat ddng khac. Ddi vdi nhdm 3, ddng tidn tu hoat ddng didu hdnh cd cung hudng vdi EPS hong khi ddng tidn til hoat ddr^ tdi chinh cd tac ddng ngugc lai vm EPS, ddng Udn tii hoat ddng dau tu va ddng Udn ket hgp khdng lidn quan ddn EPS. Ddi vdi nhdm 4, ddng tidn tti hoat ddng ddu tu cd lidn quan tieu cyc ddn EPS, tiong khi ddng Udn tii cac hoat ddng khdc khdng lien quan den EPS.
Abualrob va Maswadeh (2020) da nghidn cdu dnh hudng ciia cac t^ sd tai chi'nh lien quan ddn ddng tidn tii hoat ddng kinh doanh ddn thu nhap trdn mdi ed phdn (EPS) cfla cac ngan hdng thuong mai nidm ydt d Jordan. Mau khdo sdt cfla Laith va Sanaia (2020) bao gdm 16 ngan hang hong giai doan 2013-2017. Kdt qud nghidn ciiu da chi ra rdng ba ty Id tai chinh: ddng tidn rdng tit hoat ddng kinh doanh ddn quy tin dung md ngan hdng cung cdp chd doanh nghidp, ddng tidn tu hoat ddng didu hdnh ddi vdi tidn gtri ma ca nhan hoae doanh nghidp dua vao ngan hdng, ddng tidn tir hoat ddng kinh doanh tren thu nhap rdng cd tae ddng tich cyc den EPS. Trong sd cdc yeu td do, ty Id ddng tidn tii hoat ddng didu hdnh ddn cdc co sd ti'n dung la ydu td anh hudng nhidu nhdt.
3. Hid iijnii ngiiien cihi
Trong cac nghidn ciru (Hieu & Anh, 2020) da chi ra rdng, kdt qua kinh doanh cfla doanh nghidp dugc thd hidn qua ROA, ROE vd EPS. Do dd, nghidn ciiu nay nghidn cihi mdi quan hd giua cac loai ddng tidn tfl cac hoat ddng trong doanh nghiep bao gdm: ddng tidn tir boat ddng kinh ddanh (CFO), boat ddng ddu tu (CFl) va hoat ddng tdi chinh (CFF) vdi ROA^ ROE, EPS.
Cdc md hinh nghidn ciiu nhu sau:
4. Ket qua ngiiien ciru
4.1 Phan tich tuong quan
BiiiiB 1: Hi s& Imfng qnan pfta cac bii
ROAu=a(,+
ROEi.,=Pi,+
X 1 CFO,.
?:CFOi., EFSi,, = £o + £iCFOli
Lvatbayea
H i r a T
L i r a c b u j ^ Hmb
•+a2CFli,, + aiCFF,,,+ l,, (I) + 02CFlu + ^3CFF,., + S,., (2)
+ £!CFh, + £3CFFu+ ^u d) : M S binli n g h l ^ cOu
—J->
Kel q u i k l D b ctoiDh ( h h i B i i l i d m c A n g l j )
4.2 Ket qu^ hdi q i ^
Tdc gid da chia 228 cdng ty phi tai chinh nidm yet hdn HOSE thanh 7 nhdm nganh nhu sau: GI: Nganh cdng nghidp; G2: Nganh cdng nghd thdng tin; G3:
Dugc phdm va Y td, G4: Dich vy tidu dflng; G5: Hang Udu dung, G6: Nguyen vat lieu; G7: Ti^n ieh cdng cOng
R O E CFO
ConstaoL Obs N u m b e r
GI
83 Cli>
0.175*
• 0 030A 0 322*
0 . 1 2 . 1 "
G6 G
IiVn Ei[i6in G 3 0 3d4 0 50S 4 9 * • • 12
• a i m h DihS G4 O^'^SS
14 k i n h d a a n h
O.IM O H O
53 06 0 3 3 1 " *
0 2IS 0 3 5 0 " * 0 1 1 5 —
"125 39
G 7
0 0369 20S
19
Thong qua sd lidu d Bang 2 ta tiidy, ddng tien tir boat ddng kinh ddanh cd dnh hudng cung chidu vdi ROE d cdc ngdnh Cdng nghiep, Cdng ngh^ thdng tin, Nguyen v^t lidu vd Tidn ich edng edng. Ddng tien hi boat ddng ddu tu khdng cd md'i lidn hd vdi ROE d tdt cd cdc nganh; Ddng tien tu boat ddng tdi chinh cd anh hudng cung chidu vdi ROE d cdc ngdnh cdng nghiep, Cdng nghe thdng tin, nguyen vat lidu. Ngugc lai, anh hudng ngugc chieu d ngdnh dich vy tidu dung.
C F O CFI CFF CoDSlail
N u m b e r B i n g GI -0.00179 0 0 5 2 7 - O O d S S ' "
S3 3: Kit qii
G2 0 0568
0 0 1 3 6 0 0899+
0 0.573*
8 i h i l q n y y j
G3 0 278*
0.193*
0,355
• 0 0 8 7 7 * "
132 12
D b b v ^ B
UIO c d a dflng
0 0883 0 0943 0 0569 0 0 9 2 8 * + '
581 53
«n <6t R O A G6 0 2 1 3 " * 0 , 1 3 7 " * 0 , 0 5 8 4 * "
• 1 2 5 39
G7 0 2 2 6 " *
-0 0117 0 0 7 0 0 * "
20S 19
Thdng qua sd lieu hoi quy thu dugc d Bang 3 cho thdy: Ddng tien tu hoat ddng kinh doanh cd dnh budng eung chidu tdi ROA d'cac ngdnh GI: Nganh cdng nghiep; G2: Ngdnh cdng nghd thdng tin; G3: Dugc phdm vd Y td, G6: Nguyen vat lieu; G7: Tien ich cdng cdng. Ben canh dd, ddng tien tir boat ddng ddu tu cd anh hudng cflng chidu tdi ROA 6 cdc nganh G3: Dugc pham vd Y td, G4: Djch vu tidu diing; G6: Nguyen vat lieu. Cudi cflng, ddng Udn tu hoat dgng tai chinh cung chidu vdi ROA d cdc nganh GI: Nganh cdng nghiep;
G2: Nganh cdng nghe thdng tin; G6: Nguydn vat lieu.
Bang 4: KSt <]Di hoi quj- vl anb birong cim ding tlfn Iffl EPS
89
NGHIEN CUU Kdt qua nghien cuu d Bdng 4 cho bidt: Ddng Udn tii boat ddng kinh doanh cd anh hudng cflng chieu vdi EPS d cdc nganh GI: Nganh edng nghiep; G2: Ngdnh c d j ^ nghd tiidng tin; G6: Nguyen vat lidu; G7: Tidn ieh cdng cdng thd hien qua cac he sd hdi quy tijong ling d cae nganh la 2.829; 3.171; 4.979; 4.963 ddu Idn hon 0 va cd y nghia thdng kd. Trai lai, ddng tien tu boat ddng ddu tu chi cd tac ddng ti'ch cyc tdi EPS d i^anh G6:
Nguydn vat lieu (he sd hoi quy = 4.119 va khdng ed y ngtua thdng kd d edc nganh cdn lai. Ddng tien tii boat ddng tdi chi'nh cd anh hudng tich cyc tdi 2 nganh Id Nganh G2: Cdng nghd thdng tin vd G6: Nguyen vat lieu (he sd hdi quy hrong ling la 4.845 va 5.366
5. Mot SO de xuat
Ddi vdi cdc nha quan ly doanh nghidp:
Ddng tien tu hoat ddng kinh doanh hdu nhu cd quan hd cflng chieu vdi hidu qua boat ddng kinh doanh cfla doanh nghiep. Do vay, dua vao dau hidu ede nha qudn ly can tap trung nhidu thdi gian va nguon luc de tang ddng tien hi boat dgng kinh doanh.
Ddng tidn tir hoat ddng ddu tij ed rdt it dnh hudng tdi ROE va EPS. Dieu dd cho bidt cae du dn ddu tu, chi mua sdm tdi san cd' dinh hong doanh nghidp dudng nhu chua phat huy tdc dyng tdi doanh nghiep. Cdc nha qudn Iy cdn xem xet lai cae quyet dinh ddu tu.
Ddng tien tit boat ddng tdi chinh cd anh hudng tich cyc tdi ROA, ROE va EPS cua mdt sd nhdm nganh cdng nghiep, cdng nghe thdng Un, nguyen vat lieu va tidn ich cdng cdng. Vi vay, cdc nhd qudn ly cfla cac nhdm nganh doanh nghiep cdn lai (Duae phdm, Hdng tidu dflng, Dich vu Udu dting, Tidn ich cdng ddng) cdn xem xet lai chinh sdeh huy ddng vd'n cfla minh vi vide huy ddng vdn khdng cd y nghia tdi ket qud kinh doanh.
Dd'i vdi cdc nhd dau tu
Tir ket qud nghien cuu d day cho thdy: khdng phai ddanh nghiep nao nhan dugc vd'n vay cung cd kdt qua kinh doanh td't. Do vay, cac nha dau tu nen xem xet ki ludng ngdnh nghe kinh doanh cfla doanh nghidp trudc khi ra quydt dinh ddu tu, cho vay de mang lai hieu qua kinh doanh td't.
Dd'i vdi CO qudn ly Nhd nude:
Thdng tin ddng Uen ben canh thdng Un Igi nhuan rdt cd y nghia trong viec giflp doanh nghiep vd nha ddu tu bdn ngoai ndm bdt tinh hinh kinh doanh cfla doanh nghidp. Vi vay, cac co quan quan ly Nha nude can ydu cau cdc ddanh nghiep nhd vd vua cdng bd bdt budc bdo cdo luu chuydn tidn te hong bd bdo cdo tai chinh hang nam.
6. Ket iuan
Ddng tidn va lgi nhuan cfla doanh nghiep la cac ehi tieu bd sung Idn nhau hong viec phan anh tinh hinh boat ddng va kdt qua kinh doanh cfla doanh nghiep.
Ben canh thdng tin loi nhuan, cac nha ddu tu cdn quan tam tdi ca thdng tin ddng tidn. Cac nghidn ctm h o i ^ tuong lai cd tiid dua hdn ket qua cfla nghien ciiu nay va phdt tiidn thdm edc nhan td mdi cila ddng tidn va xem xet anh hudng cfla ddng tidn tdi hidu qud boat ddng phi tdi chinh hong edc loai lunh doanh nghidp khac d Viet Nam./.
Tai iieu tiiam i(iiao
Elliott, B. and Elliott, J. (2007). Financial Accounting and Reporting, 11th edn, Pearson Education, Essex.
Hieu, N.T & Anh, N.H. (2020). The Impact of Capital Stmcture on Firm Performance: Evidence from A^etnam. Joumal of Asian Finance, Economies and Business. 7(4).
Konak, F. (2018). The Effect of Cash Flows on Firm Performance: Empirical Evidence hom Borsa Istanbul Industrial Index. Proceedings of Intemational multidis- criplinary Congress of Eurasia, 18th, 345 — 351.
Nwakaego, DA Ikeehukwu, O. and Ifunanya, L.C.
(2015). Effect of Cash Flow Statement on Company's Performance of Food cind Beverages Companies in Nigeria. Worid Applied Science Journal, 33(12), 1852- 1857.
Ogbeide, S. and Akanji, B. (2017). A Study on tiie Rcilationship between Cash Flow and Financial Performance of Insurance Companies: Evidence from a Developing Economy. Review of Intemationcil Comparative Management, 18(2), 148-157.
Hamza, M. (2014). The relationship between infor- mational content of cash flows statement and stock returns from accounting perspective of IAS (7) (an empirical study). European joumal of accounting auditing and finance reseeireh, 2(10), 67-84.
Abualrob, L.A.R., Maswadeh, S.N. (2020), The effect of financial ratios derived from operating cash flows on Jordanian commercial banks earnings per share. Intemational of Financial Research, 11(1), 394- 404
3n H Dl/ONC CTH^Ht
