Cac nhan to anh hiTofng den kha nang tham gia hg^p tac xa cua ho dan trong cac
lang nghe che tinh Thai Nguyen
TRAN CHI THIEW vu QUYMH NAM"
Tom tat
Thdng qua ke't qud khdo sdt 385 hd ddn lang nghe che d tinh Thdi Nguyin, tdc gid lien hdnh phdn tich cdc nhdn tddnh hudng tdi khd ndng tham gia hop tdc xd (HTX) cua cdc hd ddn trong dia ban khdo sdt. Ke't qud nghien cdu cho thdy. Gidi tinh. Do tudi. Hoc vdn c&a chu hd, Sd luong thanh vien cua ho, Chinh sdch hd trO cho cdc hd ddn khi tham gia HTX, Boanh thu td sdn xudt vd Che bie'n che la cdc nhdn toed dnh hudng d mdc dd khdc nhau tdi khd ndng tham gia HTX cua cdc hd ddn trong cdc lang nghe che. Tren cO sd do, nghien cdu dUa ra mot sd gidi phdp vd kien nghi nham ndng cao khd ndng tham gia HTX cua edc hd ddn Idng nghe che t. ong thdi gian ldi.
TiJf khoa: HTX, hd ddn tdng nghe che, tliam gia lien ket Summary
Through a survey of 385 liousehotds in Thai Nguyen province-based lea villages, the author analyzes factors influencing possibility of participating cooperatives. The outcome points out determinants with different effect which are Gender, Age. Education of household head.
Numberof household members. Supporting policy for households participating in cooperatives.
Revenue from nianiifaeturing find processing tea. On that basis, a number of solutions are made lo improve the aftnemenlionedparticipaiion in the coming lime.
Keywords: cooperatives, lea village households, associate ^ k GIOI THIEU eiia tinh Thai Nguyen. Do hinh thffc nay cd nhffng ffu
diem, nhif cac thimb vien cd quyen lam chu manh dii't Thiii Nguyen la tinh trung du va mien eua minh, moi hoal dong deu gin vdi quyen cua cac niii phia BSe cd dien lich trdng ehc leu Ihanh vien, cae ibitnh Vidn cd quyen tham gui quiin ly tdi 2l.l27ha dffng thff 2 ca nffdc, san va quye'l dmh cae va'n de lien quan de'n boat ddng eiia lifdng dal 202.325 tii'n. Quy md phai HTX khong phan biet nhieu vd'n hay it vdn. Dac biet, tnen ehii yen hi hd gia dinh, vdi 66.000 cac thanh vien trong HTX hd trd nhau ve lao dong lai hd nhan khoan va ndng dan trong che. cac Ihdi vu ehinh vii eimg nhau chia se kinh nghiem trong dd 10.290 ho thudc cac lang nghe lam nghe vdi eimg muc dich nang eao cbii't lifdng san ehc truyen tho'ng. Ciing vdi qua ttinh pham vii gia timg doanh ihu cho HTX. Tuy nhien, hicn phat tnen eiia nen kmh te thi trffdng. nay. khdng phai hd dim niio eung nhau thffc rd vai trd nhffng niim giiii diiy, cae hinh ihi'fe id ciia HTX k'mg nghe. nen vice khuyen khieh ngffdi dan ehffc kmh te trong cae lang nghe ehe tham gui van rat khd khan. Va'n de dat ra la lam the phat tnen: HTX. cac loai hinh doanh nao de thu liul ngifdi dan Iham gia HTX. niing cao thu nghiep Tuy mdi hinh thffc id ehffe cd nh:ip ctia e;ie thiinh vien HTX \ LI mue tieu tons qiuil u'u dicm, nhif((e diem khiic nhau. song hien lai eung nhff itfdng lai hi phiit irien lane ntdic che hinh thffc HTX kieu mdi dang ed \ii ben vffng ea ve kinh le. xii hdi, mdi irifduii vii the che hift^ng phai ineii tai eiic king nglie ehe chuih sitch.
* ThS., " ThS., Trddng Dai hoc Kinh te va Quan In kmh doanh Thai Nguyen Email: quynhnam.tueba@gmail com
\-d\-did'i hdi 10/02/2017 X-iiv plain hien !5/0i/2Ot" S:;a\ dii\a ddng 20/03/2017
' - • ' - • • • « 4 7
RAMI 1- M" TA T F N RiFN srf nilNG THONG MO HINH KiCn lAm ttin^'-
Ten bien Bien gia (dummy), nhan gia ui 1 neii ho nghe tham aia HTX va aia iri 0 neu chifa tham sia HTX
Ri^nitftrl^p
Tgn bie'n GTINH DTUOI
HOCVAN TV
DT
CSHT
Gia tri ndi dung biS'n Gicli tinh ciia chii ho. Bien gia. nhan gia iri bang 1 neu Tudi cia chu h6. Bien gia nhan gia tri bSng 1 neu chu ho til 35 den 50 ludi va nhan gia trj bang 0 nfi'u nho Trinh d6 hoc van cua chu h6, difOc bieu thi thong qua sonamdi hoc
Sd thanh vien ho. la tdng sd thanh vien ciia ho tai thcfi diem dieu tra
Doanh ihu iH san xua't va che bien che cua ho dan nam du'dc dieu tra. Bien gia nhan gij tn bang 1 neu doanh thu nho hdn 150 tneu dong/nam va nhan gia in biing 0 neu doanh thu Idn hdn 150 men ddng/nam (Doanh ihu irung binh cua cdc ho dan iham gia lang nghe che du'dc khao siil la 154.817 nshln ddng) Chinh Sikh h6 trd lio dan klu tliam gia HTX' ve vo'n, gidng. phan bon. iieii ihu sim pham Nhan gia tn la 0 neu ho khong du'dc ho ird va gia In la 1 ne'u ho difdc ho ird
DVT
Nam
Nam Ngu'di
Dabkyvpng +
*
*
CO SCf LY THUYET VA PHL/ONG PHAP NGHIEN CL/U
Cff sd ly thuyet
Cong trmh nghien cffu ve xay difng chuoi cung ffng nong san cua Van Roekel (2002) da chi ra ldi ich cua eae ho nong dan khi tham gia eijng lien ket vdi nhau de tham gia vao ehuoi eung ffng nting san se giam dUdc chi phi giao djch, du'dc hifdng eae dieh vu ifu dai hdn, nhcf d(i gdp phan giam ngheo vii timg trift'Jng kinh te.
Tai Viet Nam. eo mot so'nghien cffu ve lang nghe.
nhtf: Dinh Cong Thanh vii Mai Vim Nam (2oTl); Le Xuan Tam. Nguyen Ta't Thang (2013) da chi ra ra't nhieu veu to anh hifcing l(':fi thu nliiip ciui ho dan liina nghe. nioi trifilng limg nghe. phiil men liing nghe ket hop du hch. Ihe che liing nghe: tinh chat ho (ho chuyen vii ho kiem): so kiodong cua ho. \on lifu dong: von eo dinh vii tinh chii't limg nghe (limg nghe da eong nhau va ehu'a cong nhan): chinh sach phiit Ci-ien litng nghe.
soniiin dl hoc ciia ehii ho; ed sd viit chat ha ta"ng: eae
\ eu to dim \ ;io I nhan life, cong nghe. v on eho saii'xuat.
nguven heu. mai bang san \uiiU; ihi tru'dng ticu ihu sail phiiin; moi irifiing v ;i hiio ve moi tririfng; thiet ehe
\ii hoi \a truven ihong \.in hoa. eae hinh ihife lien ke't nong phai inen limg nghe
Paleison Stephen (200.1) ffng dung iiio hinh kim afo'n;: cua .Michael Poriei \e niing life eanh tranh vii stf phat 11 len cua khoi hen ket ngiinh dc nghien cffu nimg life eanh tianh ciia khoi Ui-n ket ii limg n-he Phu Vinh (Ha lav I vii king nghe \ im Liim iXmh Binh), Triln
Mil Hoang Ha i l O l s , j ; , , ^n dung mo hinh himh \ i ra
^1".
dinh c
dmh t
A Heideiihei-g de diinh giii qua tnnh i 1 ket eua ho noii'; din
op 1,1,Nghien cffu chi ra rang, c^c y^u t^ adi hffdng tdi sff thay doi khi ho tham gia li&i ke't la: Kha nang tidu thu san ph^m; Datn bao thi trff5ng diu ra; Thffdng hi$u s5n pham; Giam chi phi san xuat; Nang c^
nang sua't lao dong (thong qua viec chia se kinh nghiem san xua't); Giam rui ro;
0ng dung khoa hoc, ky thuat phuc vu san xuat; Mua vat tff vdi gia tha'p; Li6n kei giffa nhffng ngffdi nong dSn, chie'n lifcfc, ca'u true va sff eanh tranh cua cac doanh nghiep trong nganh, cac nganh ho trdva iien quan, sff thay ddi cua moi tru'dng kinh doanh va Chinh phu...
Cong trinh nghien cffu ve lien k^'i trong san xua't va tieu thu che cac li6 nong dan trong che d tinh Thai Nguyen cua Tran Quang Huy (2010) sff dung ma tran he so' tffdng quan danh gia anh hffdng cua cac ye'u to' san xua't vdi nhu cau hdp tac cua ho nong dan san xual, tieu thii che tai cac vung che trong diem tren dia ban tinh Thai Nguyen. Dong thdi, nghien cffu quan he giffa HTX v^
cac xa vien; giffa nhffng ngu'di thu gom vii cac ho trong san xual va tieu thu.
Phffffng phap nghign cihi Nghien cffu sffdung ky thuat phan tich da bien. dac biet tii ky thuat phan tich hoi quy tifdng quan (Binary) cho phep do Iffdng mffc do anh hifdng eua cac nhan to tdi kha nang tham gia HTX cua ho dan trong cac lang nghe che cua tinh Thai Nguyen. Theo md hinh, bie'n phu thu6c la "Tham gia HTX'' bao gdm cd 2 gia Iri (Co tham gia HTX: I va khdng tham gia HTX: 0). Do vay, nghien cffu sff dung mo hinh hdi quy Binary Logistic de phiin ticii dnh hu'dng cua cac nhiin id Idi kha nang iham gia HTX eua cac hd diin irong cac liing nghe che linh Thai Nguyen.
Dang long quat etia mo hinh hoi qu\
iiinary Logistic:
+ //,X + u
Trong do:
•N" lit [iie'n giii ed gia tri bang 1 \ii bangO, X lii eae nhiin tdanh hifdng den viec CO hay khdng eiic ho dim nong limg nghe Iham gui vao Ciie HTX ij^l-n).
u lii phan dff
Sd heu so cap difOe sff dung Ihiiiig qua phifdng jihap dieu tra ehctn mau. Quv nio man difde \iie dinh ihco eong thffc Slovin (Dinh Phi Ho. 201 I ) irong long so 10,290 lio dan iroii'i ciie king nghe ehe linh Thai
48
N g u y e n , c u n g vdi mffc sai so' c h o p h e p 5 % c 0 m a u x a c dinh la 3 8 5 h d d 3 vilng dia h i n h d a i didn c h o tinh g o m : h u y e n Dinh H d a , h u y e n D o n g H y , T P . T h a i N g u y e n . Thdi g i a n thffc hi6n n g h i e n cffu la Iff t h a n g 01 / 2 0 1 6 d e n t h a n g 0 5 / 2 0 1 6 .
KET QUA NGHIEN CLTU C a c b i e n du'dc si'f dting t r o n g m d hinh hoi quy B i n a r y Logistic difdc m o la chi tiet till B a n g 1 Sau khi sff d u n g p h a n m e m S P S S 2 0 . 0 p h a n tich hdi q u y B i n a r y Logistic, ket q u a thu dffdc nhif sau:
Ket qud kiem dinh gid thiet ve do phii hdp eiia md hinh
Ket qua k i e m dinh gia thiet v e d o phii hdp tdng quat d B a n g 2 trdn cd mffc y nghTa quan sat sig. = 0,000, nen ta an loan bae bd gia thuyet H,, [3,^ ^^^^ ^,_ ^ = (3^,^^^ ^^^_ ^^ „^ ^=0
Mdc dd du bao chinh xdc cud md hinh:
Bang 3 c h o tha'y, md hinh dif biio trong 179 trtfdng hdp dffdc dff d o a n la chffa tham gia H T X , md hinh d y doan dting 117 tru'dng hdp, vay ty le diing la 65,4'/r Con vdi 206 trffdng hdp thifc te tham gia HTX md hinh lai dff doiin sai 49 (rifdng hdp (tife la cho rhng, ho k h d n g t h a m gia) ly le dting lii 76,2'7r Tff do, la tinh difde ty l e d u ' d o a n dting ctia loan mo hinh lii 71.2''i.
Kel qud kiem dinh he sdhoi quy:
Ket qiui kieni dinh W a l d v e y nghia eua he s d h d i quy long the e u a bien Ciidi tinh. Dd ludi ciia chu ho. Hoc vim ciia chii hd. So'thiinh VICMI etia ho va Doanh thu, Chinh sach hd trd etia Nhii ntfiic deu CO mffc y nghia sig nh() hdn 0.05 w^}^ ta an loan b;ie bd gui Ihiivel hi,, [i,^ ^ = 0 . H, \\ = 0 . Nhif viiy. ciic hii-sd hdi ijuv lim dude ed y nghui vii nid hinh eiui ehiing ta sif d u n g tdi 1 if e a e lie so hoi qu\ niiv ta \ lel difde phifdng trinh:
' L n | > l Y = l ) | = -3,632 + b . 9 l 3 G T l N H + l , 4 4 7 i ) 1 U O I + 0 , I 2 . = ; H O C V A N + d.3t)8TV - 0 7401)T + 0 . 6 6 7 C S H T
Sffdung kel cpia 15ang 4 ciia eol he sd hoi quv (H^vaciM Evp([ii = e B Neu \ a c siuii Ihav ddi hau d;iu lan lifdl lii lO'v.
21)',-, 3 0 V . 4 I I S \ a ^iV;
Dat [>, X a c suiii han dau
\\. Xiu suii'r lliav LIOI I', tlififc tinh Iheo ednii llufc sau
BAMG 2: KIEM DINH OMNIBUS DPI VCil CAC HE SO COA MO HJNH Omnihii^ Tests of Model Coefficients
Step 1 Step Block Model
Chi-souare 110.592 110,592 110,592
df 6 6 6
Sm .000 ,000 ,000
Step 1
BANG 3:
Observed
Y 0
1 Overall Percentage
PHAtH LOAI DCT BAO Predicted V 0
117 49
1 62 157
Percentage Correct
65,4 76.2 71 2 a. The cut v.ilue is, 500
BAMG 4: CAC BIEM TRONG MO HINH {VARIABLES IN THE EQUATION)
Step 1' GTINH DItJOl HOCV.AN TV DT CSIIT ronstani 1 V,,nable(sl
B 91.1 1,447 P ^ .30H - 74(1
667 -Ui"!^
enlcii-dinisi S.E.
,267 ,M)7 a^s 095 ,11K '•?.'-) ,f-)7S
Wald 1 1 (.63 2:,264
4 (.IP lll,.'^47 s 406 s 129 :H7IH
di 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
|i 1 GTINil, DTI Ol n o t •AN. TV sifi.
oai l)(K) in:
i)(ii 020 .(121 .000 D I,CSHT
ExplBl 2 491 4,252 1 133 1.36:
,477 1 949
,026
BANG 5 MO PHONG X A C SUAT THAM GIA HTX CUA CAC HO D A N LANG NGHE Bie'n so
G T I N H D T l l O l 1 l o t V A N
"IV DT CSHT
B 0 'f 1.1
1 447 1) 12^
() .lOS -0 74 II 667
e"
2.49.1 4,2 i 2 1,1.13 l,3(il 0.477 1.949
Mf) phon 10 : i 6914644 12 0N^7229
|_I_MM^I2S«9 1.1 I3S7977 5,(13.123817 17 8007124
4 xac su3'l c 20 1,S 19s 1948
^1 5269026 22.0728619 25 1M70^47 10.6544561 32 76I80.S7
c ho dan tham pia T H T , I I T X klii dtfn vi vi» xac suiit l»an ddu l a : %
30 '^ 1.6^41 198 64,5677263 32,68581^^2 16 8402057 16.97107^6 45 512571
40 62,43426 73,9221 14 41,lll()7fi34 47.5707794 24.I2746'S9 56 5091331
50 71 3713141 r 8 0 , 9 5 9 6 U 4 53 1 176746 57,6450657 32.295 1 93 f>6 0902001
lhaiii 2111 H T . \ ban diiii la 1 0 ' . Kh] c.ic \ c i i tf. k l u k khung cloi. neu gii'ii liHh d i a chii hn lit n a m . Ihi \iic suii't ciia h6 liiatn g i i r n IX sc lilnij Icn 2 1,6M' i, Neu x.ic sii.i'l ban diiu lii liV,. \ a c suin gia IITX la .i.S,4{)'.r. liMng 111. liin hidl ia .-^l.b.s',, 6 2 , 4 , 1 ^ \ii 7 l , . ' 7 ' i Dien niiy luian loiin diing din \ili khii Mlc nnng Ihnn N'lcl X.ini ndi chung \ii khu \ lie tiiiig nghe ndi iieng, do nam mdi luon la iru cdl gia dinh \ a d.i so ciic quye'l dinh d e n d o n.ini gii'ii Ihiie hien. nen gn'n tinh lii \c-u lii L|iian Iroim n o n g \ i e c tiuyel dmh co Iham gia h e n kel has khdng
Dien D I L ' O I Bd Ini'n cu.i d m hd .lull hiding iiifc licp ldi \ lec cd rtiam gia hay khdng th.im gia h e n ke't Do d dd luoi lil 3.1 ludi d e n 50 ludi ho cii \ u liifdng ihleli gi.io hfu. hoc hoi \ ii lam giiiii (iiii sii xiic suiu CIC hd lluiiii g i j II r x ban d.iu l;i' 11)-"., Kin c.ic y e n id kliiic khdng ddi, neu chu hd if iiu'rc ludi .V5 ludi iSvn ,s() ludi. ihi ihi MIC sniil Iham gia I l k X lang Idn ID.XS', Xen Miu sn.il ban J.iu la 2ll'f, ihl \;ic suin Iham sua Ling len .51,.S3',, mong Hi. kin liioi Li 64..S7C, 7^ c p i , Mi .SII.96'; khi \.lc su.d ban d.ui lii 3 0 ' . . 4(1', xii .siy,
49
B i e n H O C V A N : Trinh dp hpc v a n luon a n h hifdng trirc t i e p d e n n h a n thu'c c u a ngt/di dan. D o vSy, khi tri'nh d o c a n s n a n g l e n . thi c a c h 6 se n h a n thu'c difdc vai tro c u a v i e c tham gia H T X . Gia su" x a c suat t h a m gia H T X cua ho b a n dau la 109!-. Khi c a c y e u to k h a c khong dot, n e u mot h o c o trinh do hoc van tang IhtmJ l a p thi x a c suat t h a m gia H T X se tang len 1 1 , 1 8 % . N e u x a c suat b a n d a u la 2 0 % , x a c suat tham gia H T X se tang len 2 2 . 0 7 % . tiTdne tU, l i n lifdl la 3 2 , 6 9 % , 4 3 , 0 3 % va 5 3 , 1 2 % khi x a c suat ban d a u la 3 0 % , 40%^va 5 0 % . B i e n TV Gia sS x a c suat tham gia H T X cua hO b a n dau la 10%. Khi c a c yeu to k h a c khong dot, n^'u mot h o CO so thanh vien tang t h e m 1 ngu-fli thi xac suat t h a m gia tang len 13,14%. N e u xac suat ban d a u la 2 0 % , x a c suat tham gia H T X cua hp se tang len 2 5 , 3 9 % . ttfdng tu-, lan lUdt la 3 6 . 8 4 % . 4 7 . 5 7 % va 5 7 , 6 5 % khi x a c suat ban dau \k 3 0 % . 4 0 % va 5 0 % So lUdng thanh v i e n ciia ho anh d e n kha nang tham gia HTX, ho c o so lu'dng thanh vien nhieu se luon co lUc lifdng lao d o n g d e t h a m gia vao cac hoat d o n g cua HTX
Bien DT: Gia sCf xac suat tham gia HTX cua hp b a n dau la \07c. Khi cac yeu to khac khong doi, neu mot h p CO doanh thu tit san xuii't va che bien che du^di 150 trieu dong/nam thi xac suat tham gia HTX giam xuong 5.03%.
Neu xac suat ban dau lii 20%, xac suat Iham gia HTX ctia ho sc giam xuong dm 10.65%. tu'dng lU, lan krdt la 16.97%. 24.13% va 32.29% khi xac sual ban dau la 3 0 % . 407f vii 50%. Doanh thu hp Idn dotig nghTa vdi ho do co dien tich trong che Idn. Do vay. khi tham gia HTX ho sc CO thi inrdng lien ihu che on dinh. ho can difdc ho trd v e
\ o n . giong. Do do. doanh thu ctia ho ve san xuai va c h e hiC'H che anh hitdng de'n kha nang tham gia HTX ciia hp.
Bicn C S H T G K I sif xJc suat" tham gia H T X c u a h o ban dan la 10''( Khi cdc yen to khac khong doi, ne'u h o ditdc hitting cac chinh sach h5 tul khi tham gia HTX v e
\ 6 n \ . i \ , gio'ng, cong nghe..., ihi \ a c sii;i't iham gia se King len I 7.8% Ne'u \ a c suat ban dau la 207c, xac sual Iham gia H TX cii.i ho sc tang Icn 32.76'"/i'. tifpnii Itf. lan
lifdt la 4 5 , 5 1 % , 5 6 , 5 1 % va 6 6 , 0 9 % khi x a c s u a t b a n d a u la 30%;, 4 0 % va 50%, D i e u n a y la luon l u o n d u n g , khi tham gia H T X , m a h p difdc hi/dng c a c ldi [ch ve kinh te thi c a c h p s e sSn s a n g tham gia,
KET LUAN VA KIEN N G H ! GIAI PHAP T h o n g q u a c a c k i e m dinh cd the k h a n g dinh r a n g : c a c y e u to' anh htfdng d e n kha n a n g t h a m gia H T X theo thiJtif t a m q u a n t r o n g la T u d i c u a chu ho, Gidi tinh ciia c h u h o , C h i n h sach h o trd ho dan lang n g h e khi t h a m gia H T X , So' Itfdng t h a n h v i e n trong h o , T r i n h dp hpc van c u a chu h o va D o a n h thu cua hp.
P h a n tich t r e n da ly giai du'dc vi sao c a c ho t h a m gia h a y k h o n g t h a m gia HTX.
q u a d o , n h o m tac gia d e xua't mot so giai p h a p , n h a m n a n g c a o kha n a n g tham gia H T X cua c a c h o d a n trong cac lang nghe c h e tinh T h a i N g u y e n . Cu the la
Mf'n td, lang cifdng t u y e n truyen, pho bien cd c h e chinh s a c h . p h a p luat ciia D a n g va N h a nu'dc v e k h u y e n khich phai m e n m o h i n h H T X k i e u mdi.
Hat Id, k h u y e n khich d o n g vien. van d o n g i h a n h t a p m d i H T X trong cac lang n g h e c h e .
Ba Id, niing c a o k i e n thu'c ciia chu ho v e k h o a h p c , v e thi irUdng. Nang cao trinh dp q u a n ly ciia chii nhiem HTX trong c a c l a n g n g h e c h e .
Bon Id. Nha nUdc n e n co hinh thu'c k h e n thtfdng. b i e u du'dng va nhan rong m o hinh H T X san x u a t , kinh doanh hieu q u a dn djnh, b e n viTng than thien vdi mot irttdnL^ •
T \ l I . I E l I H \ M K H . i o
1 Cue Thdng ke tinh Thai Nguyen |2()16l, Niem gidm Thdng ke iinh Thdi Nguyen nam 2015 2 Dmh Phi l i o (201 1 i Plufifng phdp nghien i ifn dmh lifong \d nliiOig nghien i du ihife lien lioiii:
kmh li phat iiicii - ninn.; nghiep. \ \ b Phififng D n n g
3 Dmh C6iig Thanh. Mai VTin Nam (2011 ] Hicu qua hoal d o n g s;in xu;ii kinh doanh ctia ciic Ling nghe (i iinh Bac Lieu, ?,(/.,/(/A'/(r<,//(r., Tnfifng h)ai IUK Can Tho\ SO \Hiy tr 29X-306
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