OAU TU VA PHAT TRIEN
Q U Y H O A C H T O N G T H E P H A T T R I E N
G I A O T H O N G V A N T A I D U O N G B p V I E T N A M
N H U N G T H A C H T H U C T R O N G T U O N G L A I (Trich bao cao Hoi thao Viettraffic 2008)
TS. MAI ANH TUAN
Pho Cue trudng Cue Duong bq Viet Nam
PHAN 1: HIEN TRANG HE THONG DUONG BO VIET NAM VA TiNH HINH OAU TU DUONG BO
VIET NAM TRONG THOI GIAN QUA Mang ludi giao thong duong bo cua Viet Nam duoc hinh thanh va phat trien qua nhieu thap ky, phan bd tuong ddi hpp ly theo viing. Tinh den nay, cd tdng chieu dai 256.684km dudng bp cac loai, trong do dupe phan cap quan ly gdm: he thdng quoc Id cd 17.228km chiem 6,72%; dudng tinh cd 23520km chiem 9,09%; dudng dd thi 8.492km chiem 3.31%
dudng giao thdng ndng thdn cd 201.010km chiem 78,38%, ngoai ra cdn cd he thdng dudng chuyen dung, dudng thdn xdm, dudng ra dong rudng khu cdng nghiep... chua duoc thdng ke quan ly.
Mat dp dudng cac loai tinh tren dien tich lanh thd la: 0,78km/km2, tren dan so la: 3,09km/1.000 dan;
con so nay la cao so vdi cac nude trong khu vuc. Tuy nhien neu chi tinh quoc Id va dudng tinh thi ty le cdn rat thap. Tinh trang ky thuat dudng bp xau, da sd chua vao cap. Trong nhung nam gan day, chat lupng dudng bp da dupe cai thien dang ke. Chi tinh rieng he thdng quoc Id va dudng tinh, so km dudng duo'c trai mat be tdng xi mang, be tdng nhua, da nhua da chiem tdi 79,66%, chi cdn khoang 20% la dudng da dam, cap phdi.
Hang nam da cai tao, xay dung mdi khoang 1.000km dudng bd, tren 14.000m dai cau. Nhieu tuyen dudng bp quan trong da duoc khdi phuc, nang cap nhu QL1, QL5, QL6, 2, 3, 10, 18. 8. 9. 13. 22, 51, 53. 55, 61... dudng Ho Chi Minh giai doan 1 da
thdng tuyen; nhieu cau Idn da dupe xay dung nhu Thanh Tri, Bay Chay, My Thuan, Da Rang, Cau Lau, Tra Khue, Dieu Tri, Kien, Binh, Yen Lenh... Mdt so cau Idn quan trong dang duoc xay dung nhu Rach Mieu, Can Tho; da xay dung va dua vao su dung ham dudng bp Hai Van, ham Deo Ngang tren Quoc Id 1, tao thuan lpi cho giao thdng tren tuyen Bac Nam.
Giao thdng dd thi da duoc cai thien dang ke, da hinh thanh cac dudng true, dudng vanh dai; cac dudng ndi dd da duoc md rdng, trai mat, hang loat cac cau da dupe xay dung mdi, nang cap, cai tao;
Giao thdng ndng thdn phat trien kha nhanh, so km dudng dupe cung hoa ngay cang gia tang tao cho viec di lai da thuan Ipi, gdp phan xoa ddi giam ngheo khu vuc ndng thdn, giam su chenh lech giua ndng thdn va thanh thj ve kinh te, van hoa, xa hdi.
Mac du vay, tdc dp phat trien dudng bp van chua theo kjp tdc dp phat trien cac phuong tien van tai nen tinh trang un tac giao thdng da va ngay cang trd nen tram trong. Do quy hoach dau tu dudng bp chua tdt, nang luc giao thdng cua nhieu tuyen dudng khdng that su tuong xung vdi cudng dp giao thdng. Dau tu dudng bp tai cac khu vuc dd thj Idn - noi luong xe may va dtd con tang trudng manh nhat- chua hop ly, nen cang lam cho nguy co un tac tang them.
Ve phuang tien ca gidi dudng bd:
Phuong tien co gidi dudng bp tang rat nhanh, dac biet la xe may va xe con (4 den 5 cho ngdi). Den nam 2007 sd dtd xe may cac loai da la 1.106.617 chiec.
trong do co 251.212 xe tai, 152.974 xe khach, 243.027 xe con; xe may la 21.721.282 chiec. Toe dp tang xe may binh quan 16,4%/nam, xe con tang tren 10%/nam. trong nhung nam toi chieu huong xe 6 to con tang nhanh hon cac nam trudc. Xe may cung se cdn tang nhung tdc dp tang da cham dan. Viec tang dot bien lupng xe may trong nhung nam vUa qua va kha nang tang dot bien xe con trong nhung nam sap tdi la mot van de nan giai ddi vdi cdng tac phat then va quan ly dudng bp; cho den nay chua cd bien phap huu hieu de han che dupe tdc dp gia tang xe may, nhu cau su dung van cdn cao, nhat la cac khu vuc ndng thdn, khu vuc khdng cd phuong tien van tai cdng cong.
Theo du bao, den nam 2020 se cd khoang 2,8 - 3,0 trieu 6 to cac loai, khoang 33 - 36 trieu xe may.
Theo mdt so chuyen gia, thu nhap GDP binh quan dau ngudi khoang tu 1.500USD/ ngudi/nam den 3000 USD/ngudi/nam se la thdi diem bung nd xe d td con (binh quan GDP cua Viet Nam hien nay khoang 850 USD/ngudi/nam, du kien GDP binh quan cua Viet Nam den 2020 la 2800 - 3000 USD/ngudi/nam) thi sd luong xe (dac biet la xe con) cdn cd the tang hon nua.
Ve van tai:
Khdi lupng van tai hang hoa bang dudng bp chiem khoang 52% khdi lupng toan nganh. Theo mdt so chuyen gia, day la ty le chua hop ly ddi vdi mdt nude cd nhieu the manh ve van tai bie'n va van tai dudng thuy ndi dia. Tang trudng van tai hang hoa giai doan 2001 - 2006 la 9%/nam. Rieng nam 2007, van tai hang dat 260 trieu tan tuong ung 13.8 ty Tkm.
Khdi lupng van chuyen khach bing dudng bp tang nhanh hon cac phuong thuc van tai khac, da dap ung nhu cau di lai. Khdi luong khach van chuyen bing dudng bp chiem tdi 86% tdng khach van chuyen toan nganh. Theo mdt so chuyen gia, ty trong van tai khach bing dudng bd nhu tren cung la kha cao, dac biet la van chuyen khach dudng dai, can djch chuyen dan sang hudng su dung dudng sat.
Tdc dp tang trudng van tai hanh khach giai doan 2001 - 2006 la 12%.nam. cao hon so voi tang trudng kinh te GDP (chi khoang 8% nam) nam 2007, khdi lupng van chuyen hanh khach dudng bp dat 1.330 trieu lupt ngudi. Tuy nhien, chat lupng djch vu chua cao, hien tuong tranh gianh, len khach. nhait la cac djp le Te't, vin xay ra, tai nan gia thdng van d muc cao, dien bie'n phUc tap.
Ve vdn dau tir cho giao thdng dudng bd:
Duoc su quan tam cua chinh phu, vdn dau tu cho giao thdng dudng bp trong thdi gian qua kha Idn. Chi tinh rieng he thdng qud'c Id, mUc vdn dau tu dat khoang 11.087,79 ty dong/nam, chiem khoang 84 - 85% tdng vd'n dau tu cho nganh giao thdng van tai.
Ngudn vd'n nay chu yeu dau tu cho xay dung co ban nham khdi phuc, nang cap, xay dung mdi cac cdng trinh cau, dudng bp. Vdn dau tu cho cdng tac quan ly bao tri dudng bp hien cdn han hep. Nam 2007, tdng vdn quan ly bao tri cap cho Cue Dudng bp Viet Nam (de bad tri - 18.000km dudng gudc 16) chi dat ~1.700 ty VND. Trong nhu'ng nam tdi, Cue Dudng bp Viet Nam dang cd de an trinh Chinh phu cho thanh lap Quy bao tri dudng bp, de huy ddng ngudn vdn can thiet cho cdng tac bao tri.
Vd'n dau tu dupe huy ddng chu yeu tu ngan sach nha nude, vd'n tin dung dau tu phat trien nha nude, vd'n cua cac doanh nghiep nha nude, vdn ODA, vd'n trai phieu Chinh phu. Vd'n huy ddng tu dan cu va cac doanh nghiep ngoai qud'c doanh cdn chiem mdt ty le rat nhd. Hien nha nude da cd chinh sach khuyen khich dau tu ket cau ha tang giao thdng dudng bp, dac biet dau tu cac tuyen dudng cao tdc, theo hinh thuc BOT, BT, BTO, BTL... Tuy nhien, do cdng tac quy hoach tdng the GTVT dang cdn phai dieu chinh, va do lupng xe co gidi chua phat trien (ddi tuong thu phi chu yeu la xe 6 to cac loai hien chi -1,3 trieu chiec), khung chinh sach ve thu phi hoan vd'n dau tu chua hoan thien, nen so lupng va tdng muc vd'n dau tu theo cac hinh thuc tren chua cao. Trong nhung nam sip tdi, cac khuyet nhupc diem ndi tren se dan duoc kh§c phuc va thi trudng dau tu duang bd ndi
DAU TU VA PHAT TRIEN
rieng va dau tu vao GTVT noi chung se ngay cang co sue hap dan hon.
PHAN 2: TONG HOP NHUNG HAN CHE. CO HOI.
THACH THUC DOI VOI HE THONG DUONG B0 VA NGANH DUONG B0
TU nhung phan tich tren, Cue Duong bp Viet Nam nhan thuc ve cac han che, co hpi, thach thuc doi vdi nganh dudng bp va so bp phac thao cac djnh hudng cong tac chinh nhu sau:
1) Mac du da dupe cai thien, nhung ha tang giao thdng dudng bp van cdn yeu kem, nang luc phuc vu (xet ca ve tdc do cung nhu tai trgng) kem, chua dap ung yeu cau giao thdng cua xa hdi va phat then dat nude. Cac han che ve nang luc giao thdng trong cac khu vuc do thj, vung ven dd va cac khu vuc phat trien cdng nghiep nhanh (chu yeu tap trung gan cac cang) dang la van de ndi com trudc mat va cung la thach thUc lau dai. Trong tuong lai, khi nen kinh te tiep tuc phat trien, sd lupng xe va nhu cau van tai tang, he thdng dudng bp se khdng dam duong duoc vai trd dam bao giao thdng va tao tien de cho qua trinh phat trien.
2) Mdt sd diem chua hpp ly trong quan ly dau tu, tuy budc dau da dupe phat hien nhung se khdng the khac phuc ngay trong thdi gian ngan. Sd luong phuong tien xe may rat cao va se cdn tiep tuc tang them trong thdi gian tdi - trong khi viec nghien cuu cac phuong an thiet ke dudng bp va td chuc giao thdng phu hop vdi loai ddi tupng dac biet nay van chua dat dupe cac tien bp dang ke, cung la mdt thach thuc rat to Idn. Viec phat then cac khu cdng nghiep mang tinh tu phat (vdi quy mo cap tinh la chu yeu, thudng cd xu hudng bam vao he thdng giao thdng hien cd, thieu su phdi hpp dau tu hoan chinh tdng the toan bd ha tang, trong dd dac biet la ha tang giao thdng) da va se tiep tuc gay ra su mat can ddi giua nang luc phuc vu va yeu cau giao thdng cua nhieu tuyen dudng hien cd. Trong khi dd, vi su phdi hop giua quy hoach nganh va dja phuang chua tot, nen da va se cd nhung tuyen hoac doan dudng dup'c
dau tu hien dai nhung hieu qua phuc vu khdng cao, gay lang phi va cang lam tram trong hon tinh trang thieu vd'n.
3) Nhu cau vd'n gianh cho quan ly bao tri dudng bp hien nay da thieu va se cang trd nen thieu hut hon khi mang dudng bp ngay cang phat trien them va yeu cau ve chat luang khai thac dudng bd ngay cang cao han. he thdng khung tieu chuan quan ly dudng bp cdn thieu. Cac cdng nghe quan ly tien tien (HDM4.
RossyBase; RossyPland...) deu dang giai doan thuc nghiem, lam thu, chua dupe ap dung chinh thuc.
Chua cd giai phap quan ly tai trong hap ly. Chua hoan thien he thdng co sd du lieu dudng bp. Chua cd quy trinh kiem toan an toan giao thdng. Su quan tam cua xa hdi va y thuc cua ngudi dan ddi vdi viec bao ve tai san dudng bp chua cao. Trat tu va Luat Giao thdng dudng bp bj vi pham nghiem trong, ty le tai nan giao thdng d muc bao ddng va cao so vdi cac nude.
4) Trong tuang lai, Viet Nam se la nude phat then, luang phuang tien van tai dudng bp se tang trudng nhanh. Vi vay, thj trudng dau tu dudng bp ndi rieng va thi trudng dau tu ha tang giao thdng d Viet Nam se cd kha nang hap dan dau tu rat Idn. de phat huy duac lai the nay, can hoan thanh hang loat cdng viec cd lien quan nhu:
- Hoan thien chien lupc va quy hoach phat trien giao thdng van tai ndi chung va dudng bp ndi rieng, vua dap Ung nhu cau phat then ben vung lau dai cua dat nude, vua giam thieu tdi da muc dp rui ro cho cac nha dau tu.
- Xay dung va ban hanh mdt khung chinh sach thu phi dudng bp on dinh, cdng bang va hap ly. Cai thien thi trudng vdn dau tu (on dinh va giam lai suat).
- Hoan thien va ban hanh tieu chuan ve he thdng ITS va ETC, lam ca sd cho cac nha dau tu cung thdng nhat ap dung, nham giam thieu phien ha va giam chi phi cho cac chu phuang tien.
- Tren ca sd da hoan thien chien luac va quy hoach lau dai, phai xay dung va thuc hanh cac chuang trinh ke hoach ngan han va trung han that su
hpp ly, vua dim bao khac phuc nhanh cac van de buc xuc truac mat (un tac giao thong trong cac khu do thi, khu cdng nghiep. ty le xe may qua cao, thiet hut nghiem trong ve co so giao thong tTnh...) nhlm tung budc giam dan so luang xe may mot each tu giac (khong gay thiet hai cho quyen Ipi tham gia giao thong chinh dang cua ngudi dan) va kich thich tang trudng luang 6 to (khach hang cua he thdng dudng bp co thu phi) mdt each hap ly va nlm trong gidi han kiem soat cua Chinh phu.
- Tiep tuc tioan thien va ban hanh chinh sach quan ly dau tu cd su tham gia cua cac thanh phan kinh te khdng su dung ngan sach (chinh sach dau tu PPP) va hoan thien bp may quan ly dau tu.
5) Be trd thanh mdt nude phat then, Viet Nam tat yeu phai phat trien cdng nghiep. Tuy nhien, cung nhu hau het cac nude dang va da phat trien khac, qua trinh djch chuyen va phat then cdng nghiep cua Viet
Nam se phai di len tu cac nganh cdng nghiep "thd"vh tung budc phat trien cac nganh cdng nghiep "tinh".
Mac dii cac nganh cdng nghiep "tho" cd lpi nhuan thap hon va thudng gay cac tac ddng mdi trudng so vdi cac nganh cdng nghiep "tinh", nhung ddi vdi Viet
Nam, phat trien nganh cdng nghiep thd van la budc di can thiet de tich luy vdn, tao viec lam va tung budc phat then ngudn nhan luc cho cdng nghiep. Bac diem chung ciia hau het cac co so cdng nghiep "thd "la ty trong khdi lupng van tai tren gia trj san pham Idn, muc dp yeu cau lao ddng phd thdng nhieu, lupng phe thai cdng nghiep Idn, yeu cau cung cap nang lupng, nude va chiem dung mat bing Idn.Vi chi phi van tai Idn, cac co sd san xuat nay thudng van chuyen hang con- tainer qua cac cang bien nude sau va cac phuang tien van tai dudng bp thudc loai sieu trudng sieu trong. gay qua tai va un tic giao thdng xung quanh cac khu vuc cang.
Vdi loi the bd bien dai, nhieu diem cd the xay dung cac cang nude sau. cd ba tuyen dudng bp JMS xuyen qua lanh thd. trong dd cd nhieu doan di qua cac vung doi nui hoang so va rat ddi dao ve ngudn nude, Viet Nam cd dieu kien de chu ddng xay
dung cac khu cdng nghiep tap trung quy md Idn de thu hiit cac ca sd cdng nghiep "thd". Viec chu ddng xay dung cac khu cdng nghiep tai nhung vi tri thich hap se vua tranh xam hai quT dat ndng nghiep, giam thieu d nhiim mdi trudng cua cac dd thi. giam duac chi phi sin xuat. Tuy nhien, de bien Ipi the thanh hien thuc. phai cd su phdi hop cao giua cac bd nganh va dia phuang trong xay dung quy hoach, va phai tao dung duge su gin ket giua cac ca quan quan ly nganh vdi cac tap doan kinh te - tai chinh ca trong va ngoai nude.
6) Mdt thach thuc vdi moi quoc gia hien nay la nguy ca can kiet ngudn nhien lieu hoa thach. Ba cd nhieu canh bao ve kha nang gia xang dau se ngay cang tang va khoang 50 den 60 nam sau se can kiet.
La nude di sau, Viet Nam cd ca hdi rut kinh nghiem tu cac nude de cd su dieu chinh thich hap. Van tai dudng bp thudng cd ty le tieu thu xang dau tren mdt dan vj van tai cao han dudng sat va dudng thuy, va do dd viec phat sinh khi thai gay d nhiem khdng khi cGng cao han. Be phat trien ben vung va giam nguy ca rui ro khi gia xang dau tang cao, can uu tien lua chon cac loai hinh giao thdng it hoac khdng true tiep tieu thu xang dau. Viec tung budc tang dan ty le su dung cac dang nang luang cd the tai tao (bao gdm ca nhien lieu chief suat td thuc vat) cung can duac xem xet khi xiic tien dau tu. Ngay ca khi khdng xuat hien nguy ca khan hiem xang dau, viec coi trong phat then can ddi va hpp ly moi loai hinh giao thdng cung la mdt trong cac dieu kien can thiet de cd the phat trien ben vung nganh giao thdng va toan bp nen kinh te ndi chung.
PHAN 3: GI01 THIEU SO LUQC VE QUY HOACH PHAT TRIEN OUONG BO DEN 2020 VA OINH
HUONG SAU NAM 2020
Nam 2002, Thii tudng Chinh phu da phe duyet Quy hoach phat trien dudng bd Viet Nam den 2010 va djnh hudng den 2020. Do su xuat hien mdt so yeu td mdi, quy hoach ndi tren can duac dieu chinh lai.
Hien nay Bp GTVT Viet Nam dang xiic tien de an xay
DAU TUVA PHAT TRIEN
dung chie'n lucre phat trien va quy hoach GTVT Viet Nam (gdm ca dudng bd, dudng thuy ndi dia, dudng sit, dudng hang khdng va hang hai) den 2020 va dinh huong ngoai 2030 (thdng qua duan VTRANSS2 do Chinh phu Nhat Ban tai tro). Cac quy hoach tren se duoc hoan thanh va phe duyet vao cuoi nam 2009, trong do co mot so npi dung ve co ban da dupe thong nhat nhu sau: Trudc het, can tiep tuc cung co, khoi phuc, nang cap cac cong trinh giao thong dudng bp hien co, dau tu chieu sau mot so cong trinh quan trong de hoan chinh mang ludi va nang cao nang luc giao thdng cua toan bp he thdng dudng cao tdc, dac biet la tuyen cao tdc Bac Nam va tren mdt so hanh lang van tai Idn.
Tren true doc Bac Nam, se tap trung nang cap va md rong QL1A tU Huu Nghi Quan den Nam Can; ndi thong nang cap toan tuyen dudng Hd Chi Minh tu Cao Bang den Dat Mui, mot so doan tren tuyen dudng Ho Chi Minh se xay dung thanh cao tdc va xay dung dudng bp cao tdc Bac Nam.
Khu vuc phia Bac: Tap trung xay dung mdi mdt sd tuyen dudng bp cao tdc thudc hai hanh lang va mdt vanh dai kinh te giu'a Viet Nam va Trung Quoc, cac doan tuyen thudc dudng bp cao tdc Bac Nam, cac tuyen tu Ha Ndi di Hai Phdng, Lao Cai, Thai Nguyen, Hoa Binh, Quang Ninh... va cac vanh dai cua Thu dd Ha Ndi. Ndi thdng va nang cap toan bp cac qud'c Id thudc he thdng vanh dai phia bac, xay dung mdi cac doan tranh ngap cua thuy dien Son La;
nang cap cai tao de dua vao dung cap ky thuat cac tuyen qud'c Id cdn lai.
Khu vuc mien Trung - Tay Nguyen: ngoai cac doan dudng bp cao tdc thudc tuyen dudng bp cao tdc Bac Nam se xay dung cac dudng thudc hanh lang Ddng - Tay va cac dudng ngang ndi vung duyen hai vdi cac tinh Tay Nguyen, ndi cac cang bien Viet Nam vdi cac nude lang gieng nhu Lao, Campuchia, va Thai Lan; xay dung dudng Trudng Son Ddng tU Da Nang den Lam Ddng.
Khu vuc phia Nam: Xay dung cac doan tuyen dudng bd cao tdc thudc dudng bp cao tdc Bac Nam,
mdt sd cao tdc tren dudng Ho Chi Minh, xay dung cac tuyen cao tdc tu thanh phd Ho Chi Minh - Trung Luong - Can Tho. Thanh phd Ho Chi Minh - Long Thanh - Vung Tau va Long Thanh - Dau Giay - Da Lat; thanh phd Ho Chi Minh - Thu Dau Mdt - Cho'n Thanh, Can Tho - Chau Ddc... cac vanh dai thudc khu vuc thanh phd Ho Chi Minh: nang cap va xay dung mdi true doc chinh la Quoc Id 1A, tuyen N1, N2:
hoan thanh nang cap, dua vao dung cap ky thuat cac tuyen qud'c Id cdn lai, trong tuong lai se hinh thanh tuyen true doc ven bien tu Ca Mau - thanh phd Ho Chi Minh de dap ung dupe nhu cau phat trien.
Ve dudng tinh: O vung ddng bang tdi thieu dat tieu chuan dudng cap IV, mien nui dat tieu chuan dudng cap IV, cap V, doan qua cac thi train dat tieu chuan dudng cap III.
Ve giao thdng ndng thdn, muc tieu la phan dau dat 95% mat dudng dupe cung hoa, trong dd be tdng xi mang, nhua la 50%, 100% dudng giao thdng ndng thdn di lai ca hai mua; Tat ca dudng huyen deu dat tieu chuan dudng cap V -VI, dudng xa dat tieu chuan dudng giao thdng ndng thdn loai A va B; Xoa bd het cau khi khu vuc ddng bang sdng Cuu Long.
Vdi dinh hudng dau tu phat trien tren, udc tinh tdng mUc dau tu ket cau ha tang dudng bp tu nay den nam 2020 se la: 1.002.402 ty dong. binh quan 66.826,8 ty ddng/nam, trong dd chi tinh rieng dau tu cho mang quoc Id hien cd 10.045 ty ddng/ nam; dau tU mang dudng bp cao tdc 22.673,67 ty dong/nam.
Muc du toan ngudn vd'n dau tu cho dudng bp nhu tren gap 6 lan muc dau tu hien tai. Do dd viec huy ddng vdn dupe du kien tu nhieu ngudn khac nhau nhu: Vdn ngan sach, trong dd cd vay ODA, trai phieu chinh phu. Vd'n dau tu thao hinh thuc BOT, BTO, BLT...
Viec dau tu mdi hang loat tuyen nhu tren se lam cho nhu cau vdn bao tri tang theo. Trong hoan canh dd viec hinh thanh Quy bao tri dudng bd la mdt viec rat can thiet nham tao ngudn thudng xuyen on dinh cho cdng tac bao tri •
