TAP CHi CONG THlftfNG
PHAN TICH THI TRlTCfNG CHtfNG KHOAN VIET NAM NAM 2018
VA D U B A O N A M 2019
• VO THANH Hl/ONG
TOM TAT:
Nam 2018, tbi trrfdng chffng khodn Viet Nam chffng kid'n mdt nam ihang hoa vdi VN- INDEX quay trd lai ngffdng 1000 dilm sau md'c 10 nam k l tff ndm 2008. Nffa nam sau, ehi sd' chffng khoan lai nhanh chdng quay dau xud'ng dd'c khid'n edc nhd dau iff trdn thi trffdng khdng khdi nao nung, cdc nha qudn ly va phan tich tbi trffdng cung bd't ngd. Day la npi dung dffdc tac gid dffa ra phdn tich irong bai vid't, dong thdi cd nhffng dff bdo ve tinh hinh thi trrfdng chffng khodn Viet Nam trong nam 2019.
Tiif khoa: Thi trrfdng chffng khoan, chi sd VN Index, co phid'u, trdi phie'u.
I. Thrfc trang thi trrfdng chrfng khoan Viet Nam nam 2018
Tie'p da phat trien chffng khoan nam 2017, ndm 2018 la mdt nam bien dpng nhd't trong 10 nam trd lai day. Cbi so' VN-Index lien tue thdng hoa trong bd'n thdng dau ndm, tang gin 22% lap dinh cao mdi trong Ijcb sff d mrfe 1.211 diem (ngay 10/4/2018), trrfdc khi sut giam manh trong giai doan thang 4 de'n thang 7/2018. Dong thdi, phuc hoi trong giai doan thang 7 de'n thdng 10/2018, trrfdc khi quay dau giam lai sau khi khdng vffdt dffde md'c 1.000 diem.
1. Nhdng diem dgi dddc
Cdc boat dpng trdn thi trffdng sdi noi hdn bao gid bd't va cd nhieu diem tich c\ic dang ghi nban:
Ve thi trffdng eo phie'u: Gid tri vd'n hda thi trffdng dal 3,98 tridu ty ddng, tdng 13,5% so vdi cud'i nam 2017, tffdng dffdng 79,6% GDP, vffdt chi tidu dat ra cho nam 2020. Tbanh khoan thi trrfdng cai thien manh vdi tong gia tri giao dich binh quan co phie'u, chffng chi quy dat gan 6.603 ty ddng/phien, tang 30% so vdi binh quan ndm 2017. Hoat dpng giao dich ciia nha dau tff nffdc ngoai didn ra lieh cffc, ly trpng giao dich cua nhd dau tff nffdc ngodi chie'm 16% long gid tri giao dich toan thi trffdng co phid'u, cao hdn mffc 13%
ciia nam 2017. Sd Iffdng tdi khoan cua nha dau trf tid'p tuc gia tang dal 2,17 tridu tai khoan, lang 12,8% so vdi cud'i nam 2017 (trong dd tai khoan NDTNN tang 24,4%).
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TAI CHINH-NGAN HANG-BAD HIEM
Ve tbi trffdng trai phie'u: Ndm 2018, thi trffdng trai phid'u lie'p tuc cd sff cai thidn ticb cffc theo hffdng keo dai ky ban phat hanh binh qudn vd ky han cdn lai ciia TPCP, trong khi lai sud't phdt hanh giam, gdp phan tdi ed ca'u danh muc nd Chinb phii theo hffdng bin vffng. Chinh phu da huy dpng dffdc 192.000 ty ddng qua trai phie'u.
Td'ng gia tri giao dich binh qudn dat hdn 8.827 ly dong/phien, gid tri niem yet dat 1,12 trieu ly dong, tang 10,5% so vdi nam 2017, iffdng dffdng 20,3% GDP cua nam 2018.
Ve thi trffdng chffng khodn phdi sinh: Bffdc sang ndm hoat ddng thff hai, tbi trffdng chffng khoan phai sinh da chffng id vai Ird ciia minh, la mdtkdnh dau tff va phdng vd rui ro hieu qua, cd tdc dung on dinh tam ly nhd dau tff ddc biet kbi thi irffdng cd sd cd nhrfng bid'n ddng. Ve thanh khoan, linh chung ca nam 2018, khd'i Iffdng giao dich binh qudn dat 76.750 hdp dong/phien, tang gap 6,8 lan so vdi ndm 2017, Tinh dd'n ngay 31/12/2018, da cd 57.677 tdi khoan giao dich phdi sinh dffdc md, tang gd'p 3,4 lan so vdi cud'i nam 2017.
Ve phia quan ly nha nffdc, gdp phan lang crfdng tinh minh bach qua dff thao sffa doi Ludt Chrfng khoan va lang cffdng xff phat thao tiing gia. Thd nhd't, dff thao Ludt Chrfng khodn cung dal ra nhffng tidu chi cao hdn cho cac thanh vien tham gia thi irffdng; khuye'n khich va nang cao chd't Iffdng quan tri cdng ty, cdng bd' thdng tin theo hffdng lie'p can vdi thdng Id qud'c te... Dff an lual dff kid'n tang Ihd'm quyln thanh tra, xff phat cho Uy ban Chffng khoan Nha nffdc; xay drfng nln tang phap ly cu the hdn ve thi trrfdng giao dich ciia cong ty dai chung, dinh hinb vide hdp nhd't hai sd giao dich chffng khodn vd thanh lap quy bao ve nhd dau tff chffng khodn... Thii hai, tang cffdng xff phat hdnh chinh ve thao lung gid chffng khodn, so'tien phat hanh chinh ciia ca nam 2018 len de'n 20 ty dong vd cd ca cac vu dn xff ly hinh sff. Tuy cd quan quan ly da dp dung mffc xff phat vi pham hanh ehinh cao, nhffng vdn ed khdng it nhd dau tff mdc sai pham khi sff dung nhilu tdi khodn de thao lung mpl vai ma chffng khoan. De tdng linh ran de vdi cac bdnh vi vi pbam, trong qud trinh su'a Ludt Chffng khodn, Uy ban Chffng
khodn dd kie'n nghi tdng mffc phat lien td'i da trong ITnh vrfc chffng khoan, bo sung vdo lual nay cdc hinh thrfc xu" phat mdi cd tinh rdn de cao, vdi mong mud'n girf gin ky crfdng thi trrfdng. Thrfc hidn dong thdi hai dieu tren gdp pban giup thi trffdng chffng khoan Viet Nam dffdc minh bach cdng khai hdn.
Tren gdc dp nhin nhdn cua cdc t l chffc danb gia tin nhiem the' gidi, thi trffdng chffng khoan Viet Nam da dffdc FTSE dffa vdo danh sach theo ddi ndng hang Iff thi trffdng can bien len thi irffdng mdi noi. Diiu nay la sff ghi nhan cho sff phat trien manh me vd nhffng cai tid'n khdng ngffng cua thi trrfdng chrfng khodn Viet Nam. Xet theo nhdm cdc dien kien ciia FTSE, Viet Nam da thda mdn 8 trong 9 diiu kien de drfdc ndng hang tff thi irffdng can bidn len thi trrfdng mdi noi hang hai. Cdc tidu ehi da dap ffng bao gdm: cd cd quan quan ly thi irrfdng chffng khodn kidm gidm sat thi trffdng; khdng ban chd' trong d^u tff vd'n vd nil vd'n; khdng bi Idi giao dich; kha nang lffu ky; moi gidi cd cha'l Iffdng; thanh khoan tdt; chi phi giao djch hdp ly va canh tranh; vd thi trrfdng minh bach cao. Mdt dieu kidn duy nha't cdn chffa dffdc thda man la dap ffng dffdc thanh toan bii trff. Sau khi dffdc vao danb sach theo ddi ndng hang trong ky phdn loai thdng 9/2018 va cd nhffng sff cai thidn c^n thie't de thoa man lieu chi cud'i ciing nay, Viet Nam cd the se chinh thrfc dffdc ndng hang len thi trffdng mdi noi hang 2 vao ky bao cdo thffdng nidn thang 9/2019. Ne'u dffdc nang hang theo dung Id trinh nay, thi irffdng chffng khoan Viet Nam se dffng Irffdc nhrfng cd hdi thu but vd'n tff cdc nbd ddu tff nffdc ngoai.
2. NhSng dii'm con tdn tgi
Ngodi nhffng thanh cdng tren, chffng khodn Viet Nam van cdn nhffng nd'i tram khdng the khdng nhac de'n. Ke't thiic nam 2018, thi trffdng chrfng khoan Viet Nam da ke't thiic mpt ndm trong sac do. Day thd'p nha't eua VN-Index la md'c 880,95 diem (ngay 30/10/2018). Thi trrfdng chffng khoan phdi sinh cd khdi sac nhffng boat dpng giao dich lap trung chu ye'u d cdc nha dau tff ca nban trong nffdc, giao dich cua nbd dau tff to chffc va nha dau tff nffdc ngodi chie'm ty trpng thdp, chi chie'm 0,18% khd'i Irfdng giao dich todn ihi trffdng.
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IAP CHi CONG IHIfdNG
Sdn giao dich HOSE xay ra sff co tam dffng hoat ddng 2 ngay trong luc thi irffdng dang sdi ddng, khid'n nhieu nhd dau iff anh hffdng tam ly. Trf thi trrfdng chffng khoan tang irffdng manh nhd't thd' gidi, thi trffdng chffng khodn Viet Nam da trd thdnh thi trffdng giam manh nhd't tbd' gidi. Cde nhd dau tff trong va ngoai nffdc da thffc sff cboang vang vdi dien bie'n dao chieu chffa trfng cd. Cae nha dau trf kbdng nhffng md't hd't phan ldi kie'm dffde d dau nam md cdn ma't ca mpt phan vd'n kinh doanb.
Nguydn nhdn ciia sff sut giam nay bat ngudn Iff tinh trang cang thang thffdng mai giffa My - Trung, gid dau lao dd'c va chi sd' S&P sut giam, dffa thi trffdng brfdc vao giai doan thi trrfdng "con ga'u", cung nhrf xu hrfdng tang tdc binh thffdng hda lai sud't ciia cac ngan hang trung ffdng tren toan cau, thdt chat chinh sdch tien te dang dien ra trdn khdp My va chdu Au trong khi Trung Qud'c dang trong qud trinh giam nd cbo nen kinh id'.
Cung vdi rui ro d cac nen kinb te' mdi noi gia tang, hay chid'n tranh thffdng mai leo thang, ddng vd'n todn c^u da ed xu hffdng thdo chay khdi cae thi irrfdng mdi noi de quay trd lai cac thi trffdng phdt trien.
II. Drf bao thi trrfdng chrfng khoan 2019 Brfdc vao ndm 2019, thi trrfdng tilm nang vdi nhieu linh vffc dang cd ldi the' phdt trien: nhffng nganh nghe hffdng ldi tff dich chuyen san xud't tff Trung Qud'c sang Viet Nam nhff ddt may, khu cdng nghiep, dd gd ndi va ngoai that va cac nganh tang trffdng trdn nhue^u ndi dia nhff xang diu, khi dd't, vien thdng, xdy dffng, bd't ddng sdn,..
Cac chuyen gia kinh le' nhan dinh va dffa ra nhieu kich ban ve thj trrfdng chffng khoan nam 2019: kich ban thrf nhd't Id tdng trrfdng vrfdt md'c 1100 dilm, kich ban thff bai Id giao dpng xung quanh ngffdng 1100 vd kich ban thrf ba Id dffdi md'c 900 diem. Tuy nhidn, dff bdo ndi chung, thi trffdng chffng khoan Viet Nam 2019 se gap rd't nhieu khd khan va thach thffc. Day se la mpt nam vdi nhrfng dien bie'n ra't khd Iffdng vdi nhffng cdn sdng dff dao dpng vdi bien dp manh.
Trong kich ban tang trffdng vffdt mo^c 1100
diem, cdc chuyen gia rd'l lac quan bdi cdc ddn ba'y ticb cffc cua thi trffdng. Srf on dinh v l kinh te' vT md, mdi trrfdng kinh doanh cdi md tao diiu kien cbo doanh nghiep phat trien, quy md thi trffdng tid'p tuc md rpng nhd ip trinh niem yet mdi, thodi vd'n co phan hda se tie'p tuc la dilm tffa cho thi trffdng chffng khoan trong nam 2019.
Ddng vd'n nrfde ngodi se tie'p tuc dd vdo th;
trrfdng chffng khoan Viet Nam.
Kich ban giao ddng quanh ngffdng 1100 cho rdng chffng khodn Viet Nam dang cd mffc P/E thd'p hdn cde thi trffdng trong khu vffc. Chinh vi vdy, khd'i ngoai tid'p tuc mua rdng tuy nhien gid tri mua rdng giam xud'ng. Song, vide dau tff se cd linh loan chpn lpc, chi tap trung vd ma co phieu cd nen tang tot va ldi thd' nha't dinh.
Vdi kich ban dffdi md'c 900 dilm cho thd'y srf quan ngai eiia edc ehuydn gia ve thi trrfdng chffng khodn Viet Nam. Thd'ng kd nam 2018 eho thd'y, VN-Index cd 38 phien cd mrfe bid'n ddng trdn 2%
so vdi phien trffdc, Irong dd ed 21 phidn giam so vdi 17 phidn tang. Mffc tang 2% cho tha'y sff bid'n dpng manh k l tff nam 2009 cho de'n nay, cd thi la mpt da'u hieu canh bao thi trffdng va nen kinh td' cd khd khan. Day chinh la mdt trong nhffng dilm dang lo nha't se tac ddng de'n thi trffdng chffng khodn trong nam 2019. Ngoai ra, td'c dp tang trffdng kinb td'toan cau da bdt dau cham lai tff quy 3/2018, didn bie'n nay cdng vdisff phinhto ciia khd'i nd loan cau va sff bid'n ddng that thffdng ciia gia diu se chi phd'i ldn dd'n cae nen kinh Id';
trong do cd Viet Nam trong nam 2019.
IIL M$t sd'giai phap
De thi Irffdng chffng khoan khdng qua bi quan vd nha dau tff ed kenh diu tff lot, mpt so^giai phap tidu bieu can triin khai nham dam bao kich ban td't nhd't cho tbi trffdng:
Thd nhdt, ve mat qudn ly vi mo.
Qud'c hdi ra nghi quyet v l phat triin kinh te"
dat md'i quan tam de'n chd't Iffdng tang trffdng nhieu hdn, di duy tri nhip dp tang trffdng cao dai hdn.
Chinh phu da ed danh gid sdm v l nhffng tdc ddng tidu cffc den thi trrfdng chffng khoan, do vay
4 3 6 So 2-Thang 2/2019
TAI CHiNH-NGAII HANG-BAO HIEM
chinh phu xde dinh giff muc lieu lam phdt dffdi 4% nhdm giff gin Idng tin ciia nhd dau tff vdo nen kinh Id'. Trong bd'i canh ba't on bdn ngodi ngay mdt ldn, vide quay vao ben trong, ciing ed' cha't Irfdng hoat ddng va lang trffdng se Idm tdng sffc ben, tdng kha nang chd'ng chiu tren chdng dffdng dai. Trong cau chuyen vimd nay, nha dau tff can cd srf tha'u bilu vd cd phan ffng linh boat de drfng vffng va di bin vdi TTCK Viet Nam.
Ngdn hdng Nhd nrfdc tie'p tuc vrfng Idi va cd nhrfng dpng thai phii hdp de lang niem tin cho nhd dau trf, thi ddng lien qudc le' c6 thi se chay manh hdn vd quay vdng td't hdn tai tbi irffdng chffng khodn Viet Nam.
v l phia nganh Chffng khoan, can thd'y rd thffc td'la hien nay, cdc doanh nghiep vdn phai dffa phan Idn vao nguon vdn tin dung iff ngan bang.
Vi thd', vide xdy dffng mdt kdnh vdn khdc thay Ihd'va lam giam ganh nang lai ird vd'n cho kdnh tin dung la rd't quan trpng. Ddy cbinb Id cd hdi d l md rdng TTCK vd Chinb phu rd't ling hd vide nay.
Thd hai, phdt trien kenh ddu tif mdi tren tbi trudng.
- Phdt trien trai phie'u doanb nghiep.
Cdch ddy 2 ndm, Sd Giao dich chffng khodn Ha Npi dd cd De an phat trien thi trffdng trai phie'u doanh nghiep trinh Uy ban Chffng khodn Nha nffdc, Bd Tdi chinb va cho dd'n nay, cdc ddn vi chrfc ndng vdn dang phd'i hdp vdi eac ca'p de hoan thidn de an xdy drfng thi irffdng. Thang 12/2018, Chinh phii da ban hdnh Nghi dinh mdi vl trdi phie'u doanh nghiep, nen ky vpng thi trrfdng nay se sdm drfdc dinh hinb trong ndm 2019. Ciing vdi do, qua trinh su'a Luat Chrfng khoan tdi day cung can hrfdng tdi vide lang kha ndng lid'p can vd'n cho cdc doanh nghiep, giam thieu cac dieu kidn ban d^u. Khi linh thi trrfdng drfdc thuc day hdn nrfa, cd hpi cho cdc chii the Iham gia se ldn dan ldn.
Trong trfdng lai, de dinh hinh tbi irffdng trdi phieu doanh nghidp, ben canh nIn tang phap ly, srf no Iffc ciia cdc thanh vien, hidp hdi trdi phie'u, nha quan ly, thi viec xdy dffng he thd'ng cdng nghe thdng tin, to chffc dinh mffc tin nhidm... cung
Id nhffng phan vide khdng the thie'u. Day Id nhrfng nhidm vu, thdeh thffe can sff hdp sffc de thffc thi, hffdng dd'n vide md ra cd hpi mdi hdn cbo cac chii the iham gia thi trffdng
- Ban chffng khodn trong ngay, b l sung dich vu Quy bu\i tri bo sung iff nguyen.
O gdc dp mpt id chffc dffng sau, hd trd cho cac thanh vidn thi trffdng thrfc hien cdc nghia vu thanh todn sau giao dich, nam 2019, VSD - Trung tdm lffu ky chffng khodn se gdp sffc xdy drfng nIn tang thi trffdng td't bdn thdng qua nhilu cdng viec cu the. Dd Id tdp trung xdy dffng he thd'ng dang ky, Iffu ky, bu trrf tbanh loan giao dich chrfng khodn de van hdnh he thd'ng cdng nghe thdng tin loan thi trrfdng theo tid'n dp.
Hien nay, VSD da bodn thien he thd'ng md binh cung cd'p dich vu quy cho cdc quy md. Ddc bidt, cung vdi cdc quy VFM, Dragon Capital..., VSD hoan thien he thd'ng d l sdn sdng triin khai dich vu Quy brfu tri bo sung iff nguyen.
Thu: ba, trien khai nen tdng cdng nghi thdng tin mdi.
Nam 2019, nIn tang edng nghd mdi dffdc vdn hanh se md ra cdhdi cung ca'p cdc san pham mdi tren thi trffdng chffng khoan Viet Nam. Ciing vdi hai ddn vi thu hffdng Id HNX va VSD, HOSE dang trien khai drf dn cdng nghd thdng tin hien dai vdi nha thau Id Sd Giao dich chffng khoan Hdn Quo'c nham thay doi hoan loan nen tang cdng nghe thdng tin cua thi trrfdng chffng khodn Viet Nam, dap rfng nhu cau phdt trien ngay cdng cao trong iffdng lai. Drf an nay da drfdc HOSE linh trf kha lau, khdng phai kbi gap sff cd' giao dich mdi tinh de'n. Hien nay, dff dn da hodn td't giai doan thid't kd', sap di vdo triin khai vat ly vd kiem thff. He thd'ng mdi se md ra cdc cd hpi cung ca'p cac san phd'm mdi trdn thi Irffdng. Nha dau Iff va cac chu the tham gia TTCK se Id ngffdi thu hrfdng.
Trrfdc nhffng dff bdo ve chffng khodn ndm 2019, Chinh phii can girf on dinh vl mat kinh td' vT md, giff chac tay cheo de cac nhd dau tff girf niem tin, ddng liln lie'p luc da'y vdo thi trffdng chffng khodn Viet Nam •
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TAP CHi CONG THlftfNG
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
1. Gido trinh Thi trUdng chiing khodn - Trudng Dgi lipc Kinh ti'qudc ddn.
2. hltp://lapchilaichinh.vn/kinh-te-vi-mo/10-dau-an-cua-thi-truong-chung-khoan-viet-nam-nam-2018-301106.html 3. htips://bnews.vn/du-bao-thi-truong-chung-khoan-viet-nam-2019/l 10672.html
4. http://vneconomy.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-nam-2019-bon-an-so-co-the-gay-bien-dong-manh- 20190118 114057579. htm
5. hltps://vnexpress.nel/longform/nam-song-gio-cua-thi-truong-chung-khoan-3858953.html
Ngay nh^n hai: 23/1/2019
Ngay phan bidn danh gia va su'a chiJa: 3/2/2019 Ngay chap nhdn dang bai: 13/2/2019
Thong tin tdc gid:
ThS. VU THANH HfONG Khoa Tai chinh NgSn hang
Trrfcfng Dai hpc Kinh td' Ky thuSt Cong nghiep
ANALYZING VIETNAM'S STOCK MARKET IN 2018 AND OUTLOOK FOR 2019
• MA. VU THANH HUONG Faculty of Finance and Banking, University of Economic and Technicai industries
ABSTRACT:
In 2018, Vietnam's stock market witnessed a flourishing year with the VN-INDEX returning lo 1,000 points for the first time in a decade. Howver, the VN-INDEX tumbled down after six months later, making investors, analysts and also authorities flinched and surprised. This article analyzes the falUng ofthe VN-INDEX and forecasts the outlook of Vietnam's stock market in 2019.
Keywords: Stock market, VN Index, slocks, bonds.
438 S d 2 - T h a n g 2/2019
