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GIAI P H A P IVAIXIG CAO DO CHllVH XAC CLIA DLT BAO IMGUY CO CHAY RIJIXIG
T i i n Thi TYangi, Mai Hd An^ Vuong Vdn Q u ^ 3
T6MTAT
Bai viet trinh bay ket qua nghien cuu ve giai phap nang cao do chinh xac cua dii bao nguy co chay rimg d Viet Nam. NghiSn cmi da xac dinh duoc nhtmg nguyen nhan chu y^u lam giam do chinh xac cua du bao nguy ca chay rimg, de xuat va thii nghiem thanh cong mot so giai phap nang cao do chinh xac ciia du bao nguy CO chay rimg nhir (1) Noi suy so lieu khi tuong theo hai buoc cho nhiing nm khong co tram khi tuong, (2) Lira chpn phuong phap du bao nguy co chay rung thich hpp, (3) Xay dung co scr dir li^u va phan raem co cac chuc nang: cap nhat so lieu khi tupng, noi suy so lieu khi tuong, du bao nguy ca chay rimg, truydn tin du bao nguy co chay rimg. Da thu nghiem thanh cong mo hinh cong ngh# cua he thong du bao nguy CO chay rimg tu d6ng, trong do vific thu thap s6 lieu khi tupng, noi suy so H6u khi tuong. tinh chi sd khi tuong tong hop, tich hpp cap nguy ca chay theo di^u ki§n khi tupng voi cap dk chay ciia cac Irang thai rimg thanh cap nguy ca chay rimg, truyen tin ve du bao nguy ca chay rimg cho cac cap tinh, huyen, xa va chu rimg v.v... d^u dupc thirc hien tu dong.
Tir khda: Du bao nguy ca cbay rung, noi suy sdliiu kbi tuong, phan loai rung theo nguy ca chiy.
1 . BAT VAN BE
Du bao nguy co chay rimg la hoat dong quan
^trpng trong cong tac phong chay, chiia chay rimg.
Thong qua do cho biet nguy co chay rimg hien thoi o m6t dia phtrong hay mot khu rimg. Tren co so do cac CO quan ly nha nuoc va chu rimg de ra dupc bien phap thich hpp cho phong chay, chiia chay rimg.
Trong nhiing nam gan day cac nghien ciiu a Viet
^Nam da tgp trung phan tich cac nhan to anh htrong
; d^n nguy co chay rimg, chti yeu g6m di6u kien khi tuong va dac diem cac trang thai rimg. Tir do xay d\mg diroc c6ng thiic du bao nguy ca chay rimg voi do tin cay cao lam co so xay dung phuong phap du bao nguy co chay rimg. Tuy nhifin, do thieu cong cu cho phep npi suy di^u kien khi tugng a gin cac khu rimg va thieu thong tin v^ phan bo ctia cac trang thai rimg n6n k^t qua du bao nguy co chay rimg thuong khong chinh xac, dong nhat ket qua du bao cho ca m6t vimg rong Ion, khong tinh den duoc dac diem dh chay cua cac khu rimg. De nang cao do chinh xac ciia cac du bao nguy co chay rimg can nghifin ciiu giai phap khac phuc nhung ton tai tren la rat cln thiet.
2 . IWI DUNG VA PHUDNG PHAP NGHBU CUU 2.1. NOi dtmg nghifin oiu
' Cyc Bi^n doi Khi h^u, Bg Tai nguyen va Moi trucmg
^ Trucmg Dai hpc Lam nghidp
•" Hpi Khoa hpc K\ thuyit Lam nghiep Viet Nam
- Nghien ciiu nguyen nhan giam dO chinh xac cua du bao nguy ca chay rimg.
- Lua chpn cong thiic va cac he sd thich hpp cho du bao nguy co chay rimg.
- Lua chpn phuong phap npi suy dieu ki^n khi tuong tir nhiing tram khi tupng gan nhat
- Xay dung co so du lieu va phan mem nOi suy so lifiu khi tupng va du bao nguy ca chay rimg.
2.2. Phuong ph^p nghidn ciiu 2.2.1. Phuongphip tiep can
DO chinh xac ciia du bao nguy ca chay rimg phy thuOc nhieu vao dfi chinh xac cua so lieu khi tugng va dac diem dfi chay cua trang thai rtmg. Vi vay, nhiing giai phap nang cao do chinh xac ciia du bao nguy ca chay rimg phai huong vao giai phap c6ng nghe dam bao co so lieu chinh xac v^ dieu kifin khi tuong va phan bo cac trang thai rimg.
Ngoai ra, du bao nguy ca chay ning la cong vific duac thuc hien tren quy mo rong Ion vai hang trifiu bee ta rimg, lifin quan den viec cap nhat thong tin, xu- ly dii lifiu va truyen tai ket qua du bao den hang nghin ddi tupng su dung. Vi vay, du bao nguy co chay rimg can dtroc thuc hifin voi giai phap td chirc mdi dam bao tinh chinh xac, khach quan va chi phi thap cua hoat dpng dtr bao.
2.2.2. Phuongphap ke thira tuhiu
Kfi thira mpt sd tu bfiu chu yeu sau; Ket qua ciia cac cong trinh nghifin ciiu ve phuinig phap du bao
NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY 1 - THANG 3/2020
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nguy CO ch^y ning cua the giai va trong nuoc de hoan thifin phuong phap du bao nguy co chay rimg (Belop, 1982; Pham Ngpc Hung, 1988; Vuong Van Quynh, 2005; Be Minh Chau. 2007).
Ban dd ki^m kfi rung va difin bi^n rimg ciia Tdng cue Lam nghifip, ban dd sd dd cao toan cau do Td chiic Hpp tac Khoa hpc cua Nhat Ban va Hoa Ky xay dung (NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems, and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team, 2018), ban do dia gidi hanh chinh cua Bd Tai nguyfin va Moi tmong va sd lieu quan trdc khi tupng cua cac tram khi tupng do dd t ^ "Nghiin cuu phat triin hi thdng thiet bl va phan mem tu ddng du bao, canh bao, xiy dung phmmg an chua chiy va xae dinh ndi dung chl huy chOa chiy rirng d Viit Nam" c\\.e tao dd xay dung co Sff dii hfiu phuc vu du bao nguy ca chay rimg tu dpng.
Kidn thiic va kinh nghifim trong nude va the gidi ve phit trien cac thidt hi quan tr^c khi tupng (Srivastava G. P., 2008; Nguyfin Vidt HSn, 2009) dd chd tao cac tram khi ttrpng tu ddng phuc vu du bao nguy CO chdy rimg.
Ngdn ngu lap trinh ASP.NET va he quan tri co sd dtc lifiu SQL dd xay dung phdn mdm
2.2.3. Phuong phip phan ti'ch logic
Str dung phuang phap phan tich logic dd xac dinh nguyfin nhan 1 ^ giam dO chinh xac cua du bao nguy CO chay rimg. Du bao nguy co chay rimg dua trfin ca sd" sd lieu thdi tiet va dac didm dfi chay ciia cac trang thdi rimg. Vi vay, nguyfin nhan giam dp chinh xac cua du bdo nguy ca chay rimg dirpc xac dinh trfin co so- phSn tich logic phtrong phap du bao nguy c a chay rimg hifin tai de xac dinh nhimg yeu td lam giam dO chinh xac ciia sd lieu ve thdi tidt va sd lifiu ve phan bd cac trang thai rimg dtroc su dung cho du bao. Bfin canh do da su dung phtrong phap logic dd thidt kd CO so- dir lieu va phan mem phuc vu du bao nguy co chay rimg, thiet ke mo hinh cong nghe du bao nguy ca chay rimg.
2.2.4. Phmmg phap chuyin gia
Tien hanh td chiic thao luan nhdm cac chuyfin gia trong linh vuc phdng chay, chCra chay rimg de xac dinh nguyfin nhan lam giam do chinh xac cua du bao nguy ca chay rimg va nhiing giai phap khac phuc.
2.2.5. Phuongphip thuc nghiim
Tien hanh cai dat phan mem co chiic nang tu dpng ket ndi, thu nhan, cap nhat, npi suy sd lieu khi tupng va du bao nguy c a chay rimg trfin may chu, td chiic quan trdc bang may khi tirong da chi tifiu, so sanh ket qua du bao nguy ca chay rimg bang tu dpng va bang tinh toan thii cong trfin phan mem Excel de danh gia dp chinh xac cua du bao nguy co chay rimg bang phan mem tu dpng.
3. KET QUA NGHDI CUU
3.1. Nguyfin nhan Um giam dO chinh xAc ciia du bao nguy ca chay rCmg
Nghien cuu da phan tich phuang phap du bao nghifin cuu chay rimg hien tai va xac dinh duoc nhirng nguyfin nhan chu yfiu lam giam dp chinh xac ciia du bao nguy co chay rimg, gdm: (1) Thieu sd lieu khi tupng d vimg rimg, (2) Thieu cong cu hd trp dd npi suy didu kifin khi tuang, (3) Khong cd nhiing he sd thich hpp trong cong thiic du bao nguy co chay riing, (4) Chira tich hpp dac diem dfi chay ciia cac trang thai rimg vao cong thiic du bao nguy co chay rimg.
3.1.1. Thiiu sdlieu khi tirong dvung rimg Nguy ca chay rimg phu thupc nhieu vao didu kifin khi tupng, Thdi tidt kho han cang keo dai thi vat lieu dudi rimg cang kho, nguy co chay cing cao. Vi vay, cac phuang phap du bao nguy co chay rimg ddu can cii vao didu kifin khi tuong. Sd lifiu khi tupng sir diuig cho du bao nguy ca chay rimg d Vifit Nam hifin tai chii ydu lay tir sd lifiu quan trac cxm cac tram khi tuong qudc gia. Mac dii mgt so dia phuong cd td chiic quan trSc bo sung de thu thap sd lieu khi tupng, nhung sd lieu thudng cd dp chinh xac thap, doi khi do vi tri dat tram qua gdn cay cdi, nha cua, tham chi ngay trong hifin nha cong sd, hay duoi bdng cay, hoac do thiet bi lau ngay khong duoc Idem dinh, qua mua mua bi hdng hoc, quan trac vifin quen gidv.v...
Vi vay, d nhifiu tinh thuc te chi su dung sd lieu quan trac d Tram Khi tuong Qudc gia. Nhung cang xa tram khi tupng thi sd lieu cang sai va do chinh xdc cua du bao nguy co chay rimg cung cang thap.
Vi vay, de dam bao do chinh xdc ciia sd hfiu khi tuang phuc vu du bdo nguy co chdy rimg cln phai xay dung va dp dung phuang phdp ngi suy sd hfiu khi ttrpng.
3.1.2. Thiiu cdng eu hd tia hiiu qui de ndi suy dieu kien khi tuong
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Mat thuc td la sd tram khi tupng dii tang lfin Cling khong the lap dat den timg khu rimg. Vi vay, npi suy sd lieu khi ttrpng cho nhiing vimg xa tram quan trSc la rat can thidt dd nang cao do chinh xdc cua du bao nguy c a chay rimg. 6 Viet Nam phuong phap npi suy didu kifin khi tuong phuc vu du bdo nguy CO chdy rimg dupc nghifin ciiu nam 2005, sau dd hoan thifin vao nam 2007 (Virong Van Quynh, 2005; Bd Minh Chau, 2007). Day la phuong phap noi suy tifin tidn, tinh den ca quy luat bidn ddi ciia cac ydu td khi tupng va ca anh hudng ciia khodng each tdi cac tram khi tirong xung quanh. Nhtmg day la nhiing phtrong phap phiic tap, vira cd khdi lupng tinh todn ldn, vira ddi hdi nhieu sd lieu lien quan, trong dd cd sd lifiu vd khi ttrpng cua nhiing tram quan trdc gan nh^t, sd lifiu ve khoang each ddn cac tram quan trdc, sd lifiu ve didu kidn dia hinh d nai can npi suy v.v... Vi vay, xdy dung cong cu noi suy dieu kifin khi tupng, bao gom bd co sd dir bfiu va phan mem chuyen dung Id giai pheip di ndng cao dp chinh xdc ciia du bao nguy co ehay rimg.
3.1.3. Thiiu nhirng hi so thich hep tiong cdng thue dubio nguy ca chiy rimg
Hifin nay cdc dia phuang ddu su dung cong thiic cua Nesterop dd du bao nguy ca chdy rimg (Belop, [;4982), cong thiic cd dang nhu sau:
Trong dd: P la chi sd khi ttrpng tdng hpp; K la hd sd didu chinh theo luong mua ngay, nd cd gia tri bang 1 khi lupng mua ngay nhd hon Ko va cd gia tri being 0 khi Iirpng mua ngay bang hoac Ion hon Ko (mm); n la sd ngay lifin tuc sau ngay cudi ciing cd lugng mua ldn hon hoac bang 3 mm; t,i3 la nhifit dp khdng khi liic 13 gid ("C); d,i3 Id do chenh Ifich bao hoa cua khfing khi liic 13 gid (tinh bang mb).
B ^ 1. NgtiOng phan c^p nguy ca chdy rung theo Nesterop
TT 1 2 3 4 5
Cap I II III
rv
V
Gia tri cua chi sd P
<300 300-1.000 1.000-2.500 2.500-4.000
> 4.000
Cap nguy nguy ca chay rimg it kha nang chay Nguy ca chay thap Nguy ca chay tmng binh Nguy ca chay cao Nguy ca chay rat cao Theo cong thirc nay, chi sd P se tang lifin tuc trong nhiing ngay cd lupng mua nho hon Ko. Khi
lugng mua ngay ldn hon hoac bang Ko thi chi so P cd gia tri bang 0. Cdn cu vao gid tri ciia chi sd P ngudi ta phan thanh 5 cip nguy co chay rimg. Nesterop da su dung Ko = 3 mm va cac nguong phdn cap nguy ca chdy rimg theo chi sd P nhu d bang 1.
Trong dieu kifin nhifit ddi Vifit Nam, cac dia phuong da ban hanh gia tri Ko va nguong phan cap nguy CO chdy rimg theo ehi sd P de du bdo nguy co chay rimg. 6 hau het cac tinh phia Bac quy dinh hd sd Ko = 6 mm lam nguong chuyen he sd K tir 1 sang 0, cdc tinh Trung bfi quy dinh Ko = 8 mm, cae tinh Nam bo vd Tay Nguyfin quy dinh Ko = 10 mm. Cdc tinh mien Bdc vd Lam Ddng su dung 4 ngudng phan cap nguy ca chdy rimg theo P la 2.500, 5.000, 7.500 va 10.000, cdc tinh Bdc Trung bp la 5.000, 7.500,10.000 va 15.000, cac tinh Nam Trung bo, Ddng Nam bp va Tay Nguyfin la 5.000, 10.000 15.000 va 20.000, rifing Ninh Thuan va Binh Thuan la 8.000, 12.000, 18.000 va 25.000.
Nhin chtmg, cdc tinh quy dinh hfi sd Ko vd cdc nguong phan cap nguy ca ehay rimg theo chi sd F khong gidng nhau. Ket qua phdng van cho thdy cdc tinh quyet dinh hfi sd hifiu chinh Itrpng mtra Ko vd nguong phan cap nguy co chdy rimg theo chi sd P chu ydu theo kinh nghifim eiia can bp lam cong tdc phdng chay, chiia chdy rimg. Do thieu sd lifiu ve thdi tiet va sd lieu thdng kfi ve sd vu chdy rimg nfin cac dia phuong khfing ddnh gid dugc dp chinh xdc ciia cdc he sd Ko va ngtrang phan cap nguy co chdy rimg theo chi sd P. Vi vay, de nang cao dO chinh xdc cua du bao nguy co chay rimg lua chgn dtrgc he sd Ko va cac nguong phan cap nguy ca chdy rimg theo chi s6 P thich hpp.
3.1.4. Chua ti'ch hop die didm de chiy cua cic trang thai nmg vio cdng thue du bio nguy ea ehiy rung
Khi nghifin ciru ddc didm dfi chdy cua cdc trang thai rimg a Vifit Nam cac tac gia da chia cdc trang thai rimg thanh 3 nhdm theo miic dfi ehay (Virong Van Quynh, 2005; Be Minh Chau, 2007), sd lieu dupc ghi trong bdng 2.
Vl kha ndng dfi chdy cua cac trang thai rimg khde nhau, nfin trong eiing dieu kifin thdi tidt cd trang thai rimg da cd nguy co chay cao, nhung ed nhung trang thdi rung vdn it nguy co ehay. Vi v$y, mpt gidi phdp dd ndng cao dp chinh xdc ciia du bdo nguy CO chdy rimg can phan loai rimg theo cap nguy
KHOA HOC CdNG NGHi
ca chay va tich hop cap nguy ca chay cua cac t r ^ g tiet thanh cap nguy co chay chung cua cac trang thai thai rimg voi cap nguy ca chay theo dieu kien thoi rimg.
Bang 2. Cip di chiy d i a cAc trang thii rimg Ma so
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
T6n trang thai Rung tu nhien thuang xanh giau Rimg tir nhien thuang xanh trung binh Rimg tu nhi6n thuimg xanh ngheo Rimg tu nhien thuimg xanh phuc hoi Rtmg h6n giao la rfing, la kim Rimg h6n giao g6 -t- tre mia Rimg cay cong nghiep Rimg cay an qua Rimg tre niia Rimg nui da Vuon rimg
Capd§
chay
2 2 2
Masd 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
T6n trang thai Rimg dac san Rimg khop Rimg tu nhien la kim Rimg trong Dat trdng co cay bui Dat trdng co c^y gd rai rac Rimg ngap man Dat nong nghiep Dat khac
C a p d l chay
2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4
Ghi chu: Cae trang thii rung ed cap di ehay bang 4 la khdng ed khi ning xay ra ehay nmg.
3.2. Nhfing gidi phdp ndng cao dO chinh xdc aJa di; bdo nguy ca chdy rung
Kdt qua phdn tich d tren da cho thay de nang cao do chinh xdc ciia dii bao nguy co chdy rimg can dp dung mdt sd gidi phdp sau: (1) Xdc dinh he sd Ko va nguong phdn cdp nguy co chdy rimg tiieo chi sd P thich hgp, (2) Xay dung phuong phdp tich hpp cap nguy CO chay theo didu kifin thdi tiet vd cap dfi chay ciia cdc trang thdi rimg, (3) Xay dung co sa dir lifiu vd phan mem lam e6ng cu ndi suy didu kifin khi tupng vd dv bao nguy co chay rimg,
3.2.1. Lira chon hi sd Ko vi cic ngudng phin dp nguy ca ehay rdng theo chl sdP
De xdc dinh hfi sd Ko va cac nguong phan cap nguy CO chdy rimg theo chi sd P cho cdc dja phtrong Bd Minh Chdu (2007) da thdng kfi sd vu chay rimg va xdc dinh chi sd khi tugng tdng hpp P theo 6 each khde cho timg ngay d 4 tinh co sd vu chdy rimg nhidu Id Son La, Lai Chau, Lam Ddng, Tay Ninh tir 01/10/2004 ddn 14/10/2005. Cdc cong thtic tinh chi sd P dupc xdy dung theo mdu cua cong thiic diJ bdo nguy CO chay rimg da dd xuat trong de tai KC.08.24 nhu sau.
P5i = / : 5 < - X t „ , x d „ 3 _ P6i = K6,f^ t „ . ^ d , „ P7i •• ' ^ 7 i £ t , . . . ^ d „
P8i = / ^ 8 / X t „ 3 ' ' d „ 3
pioi - ^ i O ' Z t i i 3 ' ' d , i j
Trong dd: P5i, P6i, P7i, P8i, P9i, PlOi, la chi tifiu khi tuong tdng hpp tinh cho ngdy thii i vdi cdc cdch tinh K5i, K6i, K7i, K8i, K9i, KlOi khac nhau.
K5i, K6i. K7i, K8i, K9i, KlOi, bang 0 khi lupng mua ngdy thii i ldn han hoac bdng 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,10 mm va bdng mpt ham sd cua lupng mua khi lupng mtra nhd hon 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,10 mm. Cdc cong thiic xdc dinh gia tri cua chung khi lupng mira nhd nhu sau:
K5i = (5-Ri)/5 khi lugng mua ngay thu i nhd ban 5 mm.
K6i = (6-Ri)/6 khi lugng mua ngay thii i nhd hon 6 mm.
K7i = (7-Ri)/7 khi luong mua ngay thii i nhd hon 7 mm.
K8i = (8-Ri)/8 khi lugng mua ngay thii i nhd ban 8 mm.
K9i = (9-Ri)/9 khi lupng mtra ngay thii i nhd hon 9 mm.
KlOi = (10-Ri)/10 khi lugng mua ngdy thii i nho hon 10 mm.
Ri la lupng mua ngay thii i.
KHOA HOC CONG NGHE til3 14 nhiet do khong khi tai thdd diem 13 gid
ngay thli i C O .
dil3 la do chenh lech bao hoa dp am khong khi tai thdi d i f a 13 gid ngay fhu i (mb).
n la sd ngay hen tuc ke tir ngay cd lirong mua Idn hon hoac bang 5, 6, 7,8,9,10 mm.
Cac chi sd khi tuong tdng hop duoc su dung de xac dinh cap nguy ca chay rimg cho timg ngay theo 6 he thdng nguong phan caip nguy ca chay rung (Bang 3).
Bang 3. C6c h$ thdng nguang phan cap nguy c a chAy rimg then rhi s/i l^hi tinnmg t/ing hop P H& thdng phan c^p
H$ thdng phan cap 1 He thdng phan cap 2 He thdng phan cap 3 He thong phan cap 4 He thdng phan cap 5 He thdng phan cap 6
Nguong phan cap nRiiyco chay rimg Giira cap I va 11
1.000 2.500 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000
Giua cap II va III 2.000 5.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000
Giiia cap III va IV 3.000 7.500 9.000 12.000 15.000 18.000
GiitacapIVvaV 4.000 10.000 12.000 16.000 20.000 24.000 Sau khi xdc dinh cap nguy co chay rimg cho
bing ngdy, da tinh mat do chay ciia mdi ciip nguy ca chay rimg theo cong thiie sau:
(Mat dp chdy) = (sd vu chdy)/(sd ngay xuat hifin cap chdy)
Ket qua phdn tich sd lifiu cho thay cfing thiic tinh chi sd khi tugng tong hpp P7 va he thdng phan nguong thli 2 la thieh hpp nhat de du bdo nguy co I chdy rtmg d Viet Nam. Mat dp chdy rimg a cde dia I phuong deu cd lifin hfi ehat vdi cap nguy co chdy
"rung duoc xae dinh theo chi sd P7 va hfi thdng nguong phan cap thii 2.
Vi vay, cd thd su dung he sd Ko = 7 mm, cong thiic tinh chi sd P7 va hfi thdng ngtrong phan cap nguy CO chay rimg thii 2 la giai phdp de nang cao dd chinh xdc ciia du bao nguy co chdy rimg theo dieu kifin thdi tiet cho cac dia phuong.
3.2.2. Tieh hop cap nguy ca chay theo dieu kien thdi tiit vdi cap di chay eua cic trang thai rung
Bdng 4. C^p nguy ca chdy rimg ^ n g hpp theo ca dieu kien thftiti6tv4t]
^ \ ^ ^ Cap theo nguy co
^ ^ - ^ h a y rimg theo
^ ~ ^ ^ h i sd P7 CjLp de chay ^ ^ ^ ^ ciia trang thai rimg ^ ^ ^
1 2 3
sng
I
1 1 1
t h i
II
1 2 3
nmi
III
1 3 4
IV
2 4 5
V
3 5 5 Nhdm nghifin ciiu ke thua phuong phap tich hpp cap nguy co chdy theo dieu kifin thdi tiet voi
cap dfi chdy ciia cdc trang thdi rtmg thanh cdp nguy ca chay ning. Phuang phdp tich hop duac thd hifin o bang 4.
Nhu vay, nguy ca chay cua trang thai rimg thuOc nhdm dfi chdy 1 thudng khong vupt qud cap 3. Day Id kieu rimg it xay ra chdy. Cap nguy ca chdy ciia cac trang thai rimg thupc nhdm dfi chay 2 cd gid tri nhu cap nguy ca chdy theo didu kifin thdi tiet. Cap nguy eo chay ciia cdc trang thdi rimg thudc nhdm dfi chay 3 thtrdng cao hon 1 cap so vdi cap nguy ca chay theo dieu kifin thdi tiet
3.2.3. Xiy dung ca sd dti hiu va phan mim dd ndi suy dieu kiin khi tuong vi du bao nguy ca ehay rung
- Phuong phap ndi suy sd lieu khi tupng Da ke thira phuong phap nOi suy sd lifiu khi tupng 2 budc eiia Be Minh Chau (2007). Vd thuc chdt day Id su ket hpp cua nOi suy theo quy luat bidn doi ciia cde yeu td khi tirong vdi noi suy theo khoang each (kriging).
Budc 1. Npi suy theo quy luat bidn ddi cdc ydu td khi ttrpng
Sii dung sd lieu quan trdc nhifiu nam eua cdc tram khi tuong qudc gia trfin ca nude dd xdy dung dugc nhiing phuang trinh thuc nghiem phan dnh quy ludt phan bd ciia nhiet do khong khi, dp am khong khi va lupng mua theo khdng gian ctia timg thdng trong ndm. Bdng 5 trinh bay hfi thdng cdc phuong trinh phdn dnh quy luat phan bd nhiet dp khong khi theo khong gian cua timg thdng trong
Bang 5. Phin bd nhifet dd khdng khi trung binh (Ttb) theo kinh dd (kd), vi dp (vd) vA dd cao (dc) Thang
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Phuang trinh tuong quan Ttb=59,23-0,881'(vd)-0,233*(kd)-0,0034699*(dc) Ttb-62,45-0,873*(vd)-0,254*(kd)-0,002965*(dc) Ttb-66,20-0,6843*(vd)-0,2969*(kd)-0,002853*(dc) Ttb-57,0341-0,4474* (vd)-0,223* (kd)-0,0036* (dc) Ttb=23,69-0,1172*(vd)-i-0,05568*(kd)-0,004839*(dc) Ttb=12,2U0,O8268*(vd)-i-0,1373*(kd)-0,005478*(dc) Ttb=8,241+0,13887*(vd)+0,1665*(kd)-0,005711*(dc) Ttb-5,3227-i-0,07866*(vd)-i-0,1972*(kd)-0,004444*(dc) Ttb-20,929-0,01224*(vd)-i-0,058146*(kd)-0,00509*(dc) Ttb=30,576-0,2357*(vd)-O,013Ol*(kd)-0,0O4741*(dc) Ttb.38,524-0,53238*(vd)-0,06234*(kd)-0,004502*(dc) Ttb-43,478-0,7456*(vd)-0,09814*(kd)-0,004046*(dc)
He sd tuang quan R
0,97 0,96 0,93 0,94 0,89 0,94 0,93 0,79 0,93 0,94 0,96 0,97
Rhc 0,95 0,93 0,86 0,87 0,78 0,88 0,87 0,62 0,87 0,89 0,92 0,95
Tirong ttr nhu vdi nhifit dO khong khi, da xay dung cdc phuong trinh phan anh phdn bd ciia d6 am khdng khi trung binh vd lupng mua trung binh theo kmh do, vi do va dO cao ciia timg thdng. Nhu vay, khi npi suy cdc yeu td khi tugng thi mdi thdng sii dung mOt phuong trinh nfing.
Cdc cong thiic nfii suy nhifit dO khong khi cho vi tri X tir ba tram khi tirgng gdn nhat theo quy luat bien ddi cua cac yeu td khi tupng nhu sau:
Txl =axpt-Tlpt)+ai-Tlpt) Tx2 -Crxpt-T2pt)+Cr2-T2pt) Tx3 =(Txpt-T3pt)+(T3-T3pt)
Trong dd: Txl, Tx2, Tx3 la cac gia tri nhiet dd khong khi tai didm X dugc nOi suy tir cac tram khi tirong thli 1, thii 2 va thii 3.
Txpt, Tipt, T2pt, T3pt Id gid tri nhifit do khong khi lan lugt tai didm X, tai tram khi tuong 1, tram khi tuong 2 vd tram khi tupng 3 tinh theo phuong trinh thuc nghifim phan anh phdn bd cua nhiet d6 khdng khi theo kinh dp, vi do va d6 cao.
Tl, T2, T3 la gid tri nhifit dd quan trdc dugc tai tram khi tupng 1, tram khi tupng 2, tram khi tupng 3.
Nhu vdy, ttr 3 tram khi tugng gan nhat tinh duoc 3 gid tri nhifit dfi khong khi khde nhau Txl, Tx2, Tx3.
Budc 2. Npi suy theo khoang cdch den cdc tram khi tugng gdn nhat
Sii dung phuong phdp Kriging dan gian dd tinh nhifit do khfing khi cho didm X tir ba gid tri nhifit dd dd tinh dupc d trfin vdi c6ng thiic nhu sau:
Ngudn: Bd Minh Chiu (2007) Tx=axl/kcl+Tx2/kc2+Tx3/kc3)/(l/kcl+l/kc 2+l/kc3)
Trong dd: Tx la nhifit do khfing khi tai didm X.
Txl, Tx2, Tx3 cd y nghia nhu d cong thiic trfin.
kcl, kc2, kc3 Id khodng each tir vi tri X den frara 1, tram 2 vd tram 3.
Gid tri cua cdc ydu td luong mua va do am khong khi cung dugc nOi suy theo cdch tuong tu nhu nOi suy yeu td nhifit do. Kdt qua nghien ciiu cua Bd Minh Chau (2007) da cho thay phuong phap noi suy cdc yeu td khi tuong theo 2 budc nhu trfin cho dp tin cay cao. Sai sd cua phep noi suy duoc trinh bay d bang 6.
- Xdy dung co sd dii lieu phuc vu du bdo nghifin ciiu chdy rimg
Da xay dung dugc ca sd du lifiu phuc vu du bdo nguy CO chdy rimg trong he quan tri dtr lieu SQL.
Cdc bang du lieu chii yen gdm: Du lieu ve thdi tidt, du lieu ve dia hinh, ranh gidi hanh chinh, dii lieu ve rimg vd chu rimg.
- Xay dung phdn mem du bao canh bdo nguy co chay rimg
Da xay dung phan mem vdi cac chiic nang chu ydu phuc vu du bdo nguy co chay rimg gdm: (1) Cap nhat va liru trii sd lifiu, (2) Noi suy sd lifiu khi tupng va du bdo nguy co chay rimg, (3) Truyen tin du bdo nguy CO chdy rimg.
+ Chiic nang tu ddng cap nhdt va luu trir dii lieu:
Hang gid phdn mem tu dOng nhan dir Ueu gui vd tir 131
KHOA HOC C O N G N G H E
eac tram khi tugng tu ddng, luu tru vao so sd dir lieu SQL.
+ Chiic ndng tu dpng npi suy sd lieu khi tupng va du bao nguy co chay rimg: Hang ngdy, vdo liic 13 gio 30 phiit, phan mdm tu dOng phan tich dir bfiu, nOi suy
Bang 6. Sai s6 npi suy didu k i ^ khi tupng tir 3 tram khi tupng gdn nh^t
so lifiu khi tupng, tinh chi sd khi tuang tdng h^P va xdc dinh cap nguy co chay rimg theo ca di^
thdi bet va trang thdi rimg. Hdng gio phdn nifim se soat vd bd sung, hifiu chinh cap nguy co chay rtmg theo didn bien mdi nhat cua dieu kien thoi tiet.
TT
Khoang cdch den tram khi tupng gan nhat (km)
30 20 10
Khoang each giiia hai tram khi ttrpng
20 10
Sai sd nhiet dp kh6ng khi {°C)
Sai sd dp am khong khi (%)
Sai sd lupng mua (mm)
20
+ Chiic nang tu dgng truyen sd lieu du bdo nguy CO chay rimg: Phan mem eung cap mdt trang web dd ngirdi su dung cdp nhat dia chi email nhdn tin du bdo nguy CO chay rimg. Hdng ngdy, phan mem sfi gm thong tin ve cap nguy co chay rimg den nhiing dm chi email dd dupc cap nhat vdo co sd dii hfiu. Ngudi dung cd thd truy cdp thong tin du bao nguy co chdy rimg, tdi sd Ufiu vd thai tiet, sd Ufiu ve rimg va nguy CO chay rimg d bat cii thdi didm ndo qua trang web cua hfi thdng.
3.3. VHn hdnh thu nghidm ho^t dOng cua p h ^ mdm tu ddng phyc vu d\f bdo nguy ca chdy rtmg
3.3.1. Cai dit phan mem tu ddng du bio nguy ca chiy rung
Da bdn hanh cdi ddt phan mem cd chiic ndng cdp nhdt sd Ufiu khi tupng tir cac tram khi tupng tu ddng, nOi suy sd Ueu khi tupng vd du bao nguy co chay rimg lfin mdy chu tao thdnh hfi thdng tu dfing dtr bao nguy co chdy rtmg. Cdc ehiic ndng cua he thdng tu ddng du bao nguy ea chdy rimg gdm: tu dpng cap nhdt sd lieu, ngi suy sd Ufiu, xac dinh chi sd P va cap nguy co chdy rimg, truydn tin canh bdo nguy ea chdy rimg. So dd ludng thdng tin cua he thdng duac thd hifin d hinh 1.
.1?
IS
^«_^_
Hinh 1. So dd ludng thdng tin trong h^ thdng tu dOng dv bdo Ilia rtmg
Hfi thdng du bdo nguy co chay rimg tu dgng cd 3 bg phdn tao thanh ludng thong tin tir quan trdc den du bdo vd su dung tiiong tin: (1) Cac ti-am khi tuang cd nhiem vu quan trdc va gui sd Ufiu khi ttrpng ve may chu, (2) Mdy chii vd phan mdm cd nhifim vu cap nhdt, luu trii, nOi suy sd Ufiu khi tupng, du bao nguy CO chdy rimg va gui cde ban tin du bao nguy co chdy rimg ddn ngudi su dung, (3) Ngtrdi su dung thdng tin gdm cdc ca quan Idem lam, chu rimg, cdc td dOi phdng chdy, chiia chay rtmg... cd nhifim vu phdn tich thong tin du bdo nguy co chdy rimg dd td chiic hoat dOng phdng chdy, chiia chay rimg.
3.3.2 Kidm tra chuc nang tu ddng cap nhat du heu cua hi thdng
Tidn hdnh kiem fra Ufin tuc tiffin trang web a i a hd tiidng nhiing sd Ueu mdi nhat dupc cap nhat vdo eo sd dii Udu. Ket qua eho thay phan mem da cdp nhat duoc Ufin tuc sd Ufiu do cdc tram khi ttrpng giii ve. Dieu do khong chi cho thay tinh hifiu qua cua chiic ndng cap nhat va liru trii sd Ueu cua phan mem trfin mdy chu.
3.3.3. Kiem tra chuc ning tir ddng ndi suy sd hiu khi tuong vi dubio nguy ca chay ning
Tir khi duac khdi dong, hfi thdng du bdo nguy co chdy rimg tu dpng da thuc hifin tat ca cdc chiic nang tir cap nhat, lim trtr sd Ufiu, ngi suy sd Ufiu, tinh ehi sd khi tuong tdng hap, xac dinh cap nguy ca chdy cho cde don vi hanh chinh, cdc chu rimg va truydn tin du bdo ddn cdc dia chi email da ddng ky vdo co sd' dii lieu.
Trfin trang web ciia hfi thdng cb cdc ciia sd de chpn tinh, chgn huyfin, chgn xd, va chpn chu ning dd xem thfing tin du bdo nguy co chay rimg. Bdng each
KHOA HQC CONG NGHE kich chudt ehpn tinh, huyfin, xd va chu rimg trfin
trang web ngtrdi dung sfi nhdn dupc thong tin du bdo nguy CO chdy rimg cua mOt tinh, mdt huyen, mpt xa, mOt ehu rtmg bat k^ b khu vuc nghifin ciiu. Ngudi su diing cd thd xem vd tai dupc thdng tin cua timg 16 rimg, gdm sd hifiu 16, khoanh, tieu khu, loai rtmg, loai cay, cap nguy co ehay rung v.v... Vdi he thdng thidt bi vd phan mdm nay, lan dau tifin nhiing thong tin du bdo nguy co chdy rtmg dupc xdc dmh den timg 16 rimg.
B^ ddnh gid tinh chinh xac vd dn dinh eua he thdng tu ddng du bdo nguy ca chdy rtmg dd theo doi hoat dOng Uen tue cua hfi thdng tir ngay 01/10/2019 den ngdy 10/10/2019. Trong mdi ngdy ghi chfip sd Ufiu giii vd tir 10 tram khi tirong va su dung sd Ufiu ndy de tinh chi sd khi tupng tdng hop va cap nguyco chay rimg bdng phan mdm Excel.
Ket qua phan tich cho thay hoat dOng ciia he thdng thidt bi vd phan mdm rdt dn dinh. Sd Hfiu khi tupng dupe chuydn vd tir cde tram khi tupng khong thieu mdt gid nao, khdng thifi'u mOt chi tieu ndo.
Phdn mdm quan tri tren may chu cap nhat dupc day du sd Udu, nOi suy sd lifiu va du bao nguy ca chdy rimg theo diing quy trinh dd ddt ra. Chi sd P va cap nguy CO chdy rimg tinh todn bdi he thdng tu dgng hodn todn phii hop vdi ket qua tinh thu cong bdng phan mdm Excel.
3.3.4. Idem tra chdc ning tu ddng gui tin canh bao du bio nguy ca ehay rimg
Trong 10 ngdy theo doi, ngudi diing cd the buy cap trang web cua he thdng bat ky thdi didm ndo va ludn nhan dupc thong tin vd sd hfiu khi tupng va ket qua du bao nguy eo chdy rimg den timg chu rtmg, timg don vi hdnh chinh va don vi quan ly rimg d 3 dia diem nghifin cuu. Ngoai ra, tat ca nhiing ngudi dang ky dja chi email ddu nhan duoc email ctia he thdng vfi dieu kifin khi tirpng, chi sd P va cap nguy co chay rtmg.
Nhin ehung, trong thdi gian thu nghifim, hfi thdng van hdnh hoan todn ttr dong, khong ngtrdi van hdnh, khong ngtrdi can thifip d bdt cii mdt xich ndo trong ludng thdng tin ciia hfi thdng va thuc hien day du cdc ehiic ndng du kidn.
4.KFrLUliN
Cd 4 nguyfin nhdn chu yeu lam giam dd chinh xdc cua du bdo nguy co chay rimg, gdm: (1) Tludu sd Ufiu khi tuong d vimg rimg, (2) Thidu cong cu hd trp
dd nOi suy didu kifin khi tupng, (3) Khong co nhung hfi so thich hgp trong cong thiic du bao nguy eo ehay rimg, (4) Chua tieh hpp dac diem dfi chdy cua cac trang thdi rimg vao c6ng thiic du bao nguy ca chay rimg.
Nghifin ciiu da lua chgn dupc cong thiic tinh chi sd khi tupng tdng hpp vdi hfi sd hifiu chinh lugng mua Ko = 7 mm va cdc ngirong phan ciip nguy co chdy rimg thich hgp chung cho cac dia phuang. Bfin canh dd dd lua chgn dupc phuong phap tich hop cap nguy CO chay tiieo didu kifin thdi tiet vdi ciip dfi chay cua cdc trang thdi rimg dd du bdo nguy co chdy rimg.
Xdy dung dugc co sd dti hfiu va phan mem dam bdo til dpng cap nhat sd Ufiu, nOi suy sd Ufiu va du bao nguy ca chay rimg. Cde chiic ndng chu yeu ciia phdn mem la tu ddng quan trdc, cap nhdt sd Ufiu, nfii suy sd Ufiu, xde dinh chi sd P vd cdp nguy co chdy rimg, truyen tin canh bao nguy co chay rimg.
Mo hinh thu nghidm cua hfi thdng tu dgng du bdo nguy co chdy rimg gdm cdc tram khi tupng, mdy chii va phdn mem qudn tri dir Ufiu da boat dgng dn dinh. Hfi thdng da thuc hifin tdt cac chiic ndng: tu ddng cap nhdt va lim trii sd Ueu, n6i suy sd Heu, xdc dinh chi sd khi tugng tdng hgp va cap nguy co chay rimg eho cdc dia phirong tir cap tinh, cap huyfin, cap xa va chu rtmg.
LdlCAMON
Bii viit cd ke thua mdt phan sd Ueu eua de tai
"Nghiin cuu phat trien he thdng thiit bi va phan mem tu dong du bio, canh bio, xay dung phuang in chtia ehay vi xac dinh ndi dung chl huy ehiia ehiy rung d Viet Nam" do Bd Ndng nghiep va Phit tiien ndng thdn da hd tra thue hiin.
TAI UEU THAM KHAO
1. Belop C. v., 1982. Lua rimg. LeningraL 2. Bd Minh Chdu va cdng su, 2007. Nghien ciiu hodn thien phuong phdp vd phan mem du bao nguy CO chdy rung Vifit Nam. Be tai khoa hpc e6ng nghfi Bd N6ng nghiep vd Phdt trien n6ng th6n. Ha Ndi,
3. NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team. ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. https://doi.org/
10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. 2018.
4. Nguyfin Viet Han, 2009. Nghifin ciiu xay dung va thii nghifim he thdng tram khi tirong tu dpng. Dfi tdi cdp Bd Bg Tai nguyfin vd Moi trudng.
Ha Ndi.
KHOA HQC C d N G NGHE
5. Vuang Van QuSnh, 2005. Nghien oiu xay Practices. Atlantic PubUshers & DisWbutors (p) dung cac giai phap phdng chdng va khic phuc hau LTD
qua chaj rimg cho vung U Minh va Tay Nguyen. Bi g Pham Ngoc Hung, 1988. Xay dung p h ^ n g ta. cap Nha nuoc. Ha Npi. phap du bao chay rimg Thong nhua (fl^.*"'^''*^''"
6. Vuong Van Quynh, 2006. Tita bp trong du j.) ft Quang Ninh. Luan an phd ti^n sy khoa hpc nong
^ T Z ^ - I . " " ' " ^ "^^^ ™ " * W - V * " Kho* hpc Lam nghiep Viet Nam. Ha 7. Srivastava G. P., 2008. Surfece
Meteorological Instinunents and Measurement
SOLUTIONS TO ENHANCE THE CORRECT OF THE FOREST FIRE RISK PREDICTING Tran Thi Trang. Mai Ha An. Vuong Van Quynh Summary
The paper presents research results about solutions to improve die accuracy of forest fire forecasting in Vietnam. The authors have identified the mam reasons of reducing the accuracy of forest fire forecasting, proposing and successfiilly tesUng a number of soluUons to improve the accuracy of forest fire forecasting, including including: (1) Interpolation of meteorological data in two steps for places where there is no weatiier station, (2) Selecting appropriate forest fire risk forecasting metiiods, (3) Develop database and software with functions: updating meteorological data, meteorological data interpolation, forecasting forest fire nsk, transmitting forecast information nsk of forest fire. Researche group has successfully tested the technology model of the automatic forest fire risk forecasting system, in which all the updating of meteorological data, interpolation of meteorological data, calculation of integrated meteorological index, identifying of the level of fire nsk according to meteorological conditions, and combining it with flammability level of forest types become the level of forest fire risk, send information on forest fire risk levels of provinces, districts, communes and forest owners to users... are done automatically.
Keywords: Forest £re risk forecasting, interpolation of meteorological data, forest classiScation according to flammability level
Ngirdi phan bidn; TS. Nguyen Phirong Van Ngdy nhdn bdi: 13/12/2019
Ngdy thdng qua phan bifin: 14/01/2020 Ngdy duydt ddng: 21/01/2020
