Thacti ttiCfc an ninh nang lupng doi v6i cong ngliiep Jioo va ptiat trien ben vung 6 Viet Nam
NGUYEN TAN PHAT
^^ i§t Nam trong qud trinh cdng nghiep hoa dang phdi ddi mg,t vdi vdn dian ninh ndng 7^ lUOng, biiu hiin Id hien tUdng thidu diintrin di^n r0ng dnh hudng din tdng trUdng sdn xudt vd cu^c sdng ddn sinh. Thdi gian qua, phdt tridn ndng lUpng chd yiu di/a vdo thuy dien, nhiet dien md it chil trong ddn ndng lUdng 8g,ch cUng nhU nhiiu vdn di lien quan ddn mdi trUdng vd phdt tridn bin vdng. Do do, ngdnh ndng lupng phdi ciing luc gidi quyet hai vdn di (1) ddp Ung nhu cdu ndng lUang decdng nghiip hda vd phdt triin kinh td- xd hdi, (2) phdt trien ndng lUdng bin vdng, nhdt Id ndng luang tdi sinh vd an todn.
1. N a n g liicfng, c h i n h s a c h n a n g li:^dng v a p h a t t r i e n n a n g lifcing Ndng Ifldng ngdy edng trd nen quan trong ddi vdi eac ndn san xud't edng nghiep vd cudc sd'ng van minh eua con ngfldi trong thd' gidi hien dai. Trong khi n h u e l u sfl dung ndng Iflpng ngdy edng Idn thi nhflng ngudn tai nguyen thien nhidn lai khdng phai vd tSin, nhd't la nang Ifldng t h a n da va d l u md dang ngay eang can kiet. Ngoai ra, nang Iflpng vfla la nganh quan trpng ciia nen kinh td' va eung la mdt trong nhiing nganh cd tdc dong m a n h me ddn moi trudng, gay r a n h i l u ehd't thai do boat ddng khai thae va stt dung eae dang nang lupng, ddc bidt la ndng lUpng hda thach. \ ^ thd, tim kidm nhflng ngudn nhien lieu ddi ddo hdn, ben vflng hdn la nhi$m vu cua loai ngfldi va ciing la cd hdi cho nhflng ai n h a n h ehdng ldm ehu dUpc nhflng ngudn nang lupng mdi.
Do n h u c l u n d n g lupng ngdy cdng t a n g va k h a n b i l m , nen eac qude gia phai cd ehinh sach p h a t t r i l n ndng lUpng phu hpp.
Thudt ngfl n a n g lUdng dUpc md rdng sang chinh sdch ndng lUOng.
Chinh sach n a n g Ifldng Id each thfl.; cd quan dfldc trao quydn (thudng Id chinh phu) quyd't dinh t a p t r u n g vao nhflng \'^n de p h a t trien n a n g lUpng bao gdm san xua't phdn phdi va tidu t h u n a n g Ifldng. T h u d t
rigfl ehinh sach ndng Iflpng ed t h i bao gdm p h a p ehe, nhflng hiep flde m a n g tinh qudc te vd nhflng k h u y e n khich d l u tfl, hfldng ddn de bao tdn n a n g Iflpng, hfldng ddn vd he thd'ng thud' vd nhflng bidn p h a p ehinh saeh edng k h a c ' .
Cung cd mdt each giai thieh khae, ehinh saeh n a n g Ifldng la ke hogch h d n h dong d l giai quye't nhflng vd'n d l lien quan ddn eung e l u n a n g Iflpng, p h a t trien ndng lUdng lien q u a n de'n cdng nghiep vd thUdng mai vd nhflng hd q u a eua cac b o a t dong ndng Iflpng^.
Phdt tridn ndng lUdng Id nd luc nham eung ed'p nhflng ngudn n d n g Ifldng ed ban va nhflng h i n h thflc ndng lUpng thfl yd'u eho ngudn dfl trfl, hao ton vd nhflng a n h hfldng
Nguyfin Tail Phdt, TS.. Trudng dai hoc Kinh tl - ludt, Dai hoc Qutfc gia TP. H6 Chf Minh
' Energy policy is the manner in which a given entity (often governmental) has decided to address issues of energy development including energy production, distribulion and consumption. The attributes of energy policy may include legislation, international treaties, incentives to investment, guidelines for energy conservation, taxation and other public policy techniques. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_policy.
Ngdy cap nhdt: 19-5-2011).
^ Energy policy is a plan of action for tackling issues related to energy supply, demand, development of energy related industry and trade and consequences of energy activites.
16
Thdch Uiiifc an ninh nang lUong...
den sfl d nhidm khdng khi, d nhiem nUdc, ldm giam su t h a y ddi khi hdu bang cac ngudn ndng lUdng mdi^.
P h a t trien ndng lUpng Id linh vUc lien quan de'n vide eung ca'p n a n g lUdng n h i l u vd ed the set dung dupc cho eon ngUdi. Dd Id sU p h a t trien khdng ngiing ve kie'n thfle, ky nang vd nhflng cd q u a n de dat dfldc ddi ddo vd phong p h u hdn nfla nhflng ngudn nang lupng cd b a n vd dd bie'n chung thdnh nhflng ngudn n a n g lupng thfl yeu tidn Ipi hdn nfla, chdng h a n nhfl ndng Iflpng dien vd nguydn lieu s^ch hdn. Td't ca eae bien phap, ea nhflng bidn p h a p lien q u a n den khia eanh ve Iflpng, tfle la san xud't dflpe nhidu ndng lupng hdn vd khia c^nh v l chd't, tflc Id viec sii dung hidu qua hdn deu quan trpng"".
2. T o n g q u a n p h a t t r i e n n a n g lifpfng Vidt N a m
ThU nhdt, cde loai nang lUpng de san xudt dien: Trong n h i l u ndm qua, he thd'ng nang Iflpng de san xud't didn d Vidt Nam kha phong phu, gdm n h i l u chiing loai dfla trdn ldi the tfl nhien cua minh, trong dd ba tru cot chinh la thuy dien, nhidt didn than, nhiet didn khi. Nam 2010, thuy dien ehid'm ty trong Idn trong ed ed'u san xud't dien Viet Nam 38%, nhiet didn t h a n 20% va nhiet dien khi gaz thidn nhidn chiem den 36%. Nang lUdng tai tao nhU nang lUpng mat trdi, nang lUdng gid chiem mot ty trong ra't nhd khoang 2%, dien dUpc san xua't tfl d l u Ifla khoang 2% va p h l n thieu hut phai nhap k h i u tfl Trung Qud'c, Lao, Campuchia khoang 4%.
HINH 1: CiJ ca'u c a o loai niiiifi lUo^ng s a n x u a t d i d n t a Viet N a m giai d o a n 2001 - 2010 EEEE
ESS
^HB ^SS ^SE ^SH SiES M^ ^M W^ ^M
D T h u
• Die
• Die y d i e n
duo-c sa duffc 5a
n xuat lu nxuat tL
khi ga thien nhien nang lu'png lai lao
• Die
• Oie du'wc san du'CTCsan
x u a l t j - xuat tu'
han da au 1 i>a
Ngu6n: {1) Sd liftu giai doan 2001 - 2008 tir World Bank (2011). Eleclnaiy power proditclion.
hIIp://search.worldbank.org/data?qtenn=Electricity production&language=EN, truy cap 20-8-2011.
(2) SiS lieu 2010 la ti'nh loan ciia I4c gia tit B6 Tai Chi'nh (2011), Tinh hinh cung dp dim vd gi<i dim ndm 2011, hnp://www.mof.gov.vn/portal/page/portal/mof_vn/1539781?pers_id=2177092&ilem_id=35996444&p_details=lVa Quyft dinh s8 1208QD-Trg ngiy 21-7-2011 cua Thi tuAig Chinh phi v4 PhS duyei qui hoach phit triia dien luc qu6c gia giai doan 2011 - 2020 c6 xet d^n nam 2030.
' Energy development is the effort to provide sufficient primary energy sources and secondary energy forms tor supply, cost, impact on air pollution and water pollution, mitigation of climate change with renewable energy.
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_development. Ngay cap nhat: 09/06/2011).
* Energy development is die field concerned with providing abundant and accessible energy to all humans. It is the progressive development of knowledge, skills and institutions for capturing ever more copious and diverse primary energy sources and convening them to ever more convenient secondary energy forms, such as electrical energy and cleaner fuels. In all steps botii quantitative aspects, harnessing more energy, and qualitative aspects, more efficient use, are importam. (Wordiq. Ngily cap nhat: 23/06/2011)
NghlincitiJ Kinh tesS 407-Thang 4/2012 17
Thich Me an ninh nang luong...
Cac ml6c trong khu vUc Dong Nam A, Trung (5u6c vk An Do kha nSng san xuS't di6n diJa v^o the manh nguon nguyfin H?u san xua't nang luc3ng vi kha nang c6ng nghe cila minh.
Ch&ng han nha Xingapo nSng lUiJng san xuS't dien tit hai lo^i khi ca thien nhien 80.3% va
dfo Ilia 19,7%. Trung Quoc mac du c6 nguon cung san xuS't di?n da dang nhU chii yeu ia than da 79,07% va thuy di6n 16,93%, dien hat nhSn 1,98%. Thai Lan, Malaixia va Indonexia c6 nguon cung nang lU(?ng san xua't dien ciing phong phii nhu Vi$t Nam.
HINH 2: Cd cau nang lUcfng san xuat dien nfim 2010 cua Viet Nam va c^c nifdc nam 2008
L'iH«« lyUHgB BHHtW irr.mmia \M'Mii uMAlM ^SES
• Thuy
• Dien
• Dien D du du en oc san oc san
xuat tu xuat tii
ga th nang
en nh lu'O'nc en
hat nhan
• Dien du'oc san xuat tu' than da
• Dien duo'c san xuat tu' d l u hda
Ngudn: (I) S6 lifiu cSc nudc nam 2008 tu World Bank (2011), Electricity power production, http:Z/search.
worldbank.orp/data?Qterm=Electricitv production&language=EN. (2) Sd lieu Vifii Nam nam 2010 Ik tfnh toSn cua tic gia ttr BO Tai chi'nh (2011), Tmh hinh cung dp dien va gii diftn nam 2011, hltp;//www.mof.gov.vn/portal/
page/portal/mof_vn/1539781?pers_id=2l77092&item_id=35996444&p_details Thd hai, san lifdng difin san xuat vk san
liidng dien tieu thii: so lidu Bang 1 cho thay giai doan 2001 - 2010 san lifdng dien san xu^'t va tieu thu tang hang nam vk cd thang dU didn san xu^t so vdi tieu thu, ty le thang dii so vdi tieu diing nam giai doan 2001 - 2008 khoang 12%/nam. Nhifng cd van de can lam sang to dd la thieu dien va nhap kh^u dien.
Nhu vay, cd the thiiy lifdng dien that thoat la ra't Idn, nS^u thang dU didn so vdi tieu dung la 12% cdng vdi nhap kh^u dien khoang 4% va
tinh trang cup dien thudng xuyen do thieu dien vao cac miia cao di^m, suy ra lUdng dien tha't thoat xa'p xi tren dudi 20%. Mat khac, xu hudng tdc dd tang ciia san lUdng dien san xuS't cua nam sau giam so vdi nam trUdc. Nam 2002 tdc dd san xua't dien tang so vdi nam 2001 la 16,94%, sau dd lien tuc giam cdn 9,26% nam 2008. Dieu nay cho thS^y nang lUc san xu^t dien ng^y eang khdng phat trien theo yeu c^u cdng nghiep hda va phat tri^n kinh te - xa hdi.
18 Nghi&n cOu Kinh tds6407- Thing 4/2012
Th^ch thifc an ninh nang luong...
BANG 1: S a n l i i d n g d i e n s a n xua't v a s a n Itfdng d i e n t i e u t h i j g i a i d o a n 2001 - 2010 Bdn vi tinh: trieu kWk TT
1 2 3 4 b
b
Nam San lUdng dign san
XUEl't
San iilcfng dien tigu thu
Thang du san xuat so vfli tieu dimg (3 = 1-2) Ty le thang dit so vdi tieu dimg (4= 3/2)(%) Toe do san xua't di§n nam sau so v6i nSm trUdc (%) Toe do ti§u diing dien nam sau so vdi nSm tritdc (%)
2001 30.608 26.365 4.243 16,09
2002 35.796 30,784 5.012 16,28 16,94
16,76 2003 40,926 35.653 5,272 14,75 14,32
15,81 2004 46,029 41,200 4,829 11,72 16,14
15,55 2005 53.46Z 47,593 5,869 12,33 13,15
15,61 2006 60,493 54,696 5 897 10,80 10,62
14,71 2007 66,857 61,970 4,887 7,88 9,26
13,50 2008 73,049 68,907 4,142 6,01
2010 96,000 86,590 10 410
12,16
Ngu6n: S(5 lifiu 2001 - 2008 vi: World Bank (2011). Electricity power production & Electricity power coniumlion, hnp://search.worldbank.org/data?qterm=Eleciricily productin&language=EN, truy cap 20/8/201 ]. S6 htu nam 2010 la tinh toan ciia tdc gia tir BO Tai chfnh (2011), Tinh hinh cung cip difin va gid dien nam 2011, htip://www.mof.gov.vn/ponal/
page/portal/mof_vn/1539781?persjd=2177092&item_id=3599'6444&p_details=l.
LUdng dien s a n xua't va t i e u d-iing tai Viet N a m t h a p hdn n h i e u so vdi cac nUdc T h a i L a n , M a l a i x i a , I n d d n d x i a (xem b a n g 2) dieu n a y c a n h bao ve k h a n a n g s a n
BANG 2: S a n li^oTng d i e n s a n x u a t v a t i e u t h u m o t so' nvidc D d n g N a m A Bdn vi tinh: trieu KWh x u a t n a n g lUdng dien cho p h a t trien ciia nen k i n h te - xa hoi, nha't la p h a t t r i e n m a n h cong n g h i e p n a n g cho nhiing n a m tdi.
Nam
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Thai Lan San xuat
102,420 109.013 116.983 125,727 132,197 138.742 143,378 147,427
Tieu diing 95,611 103,636 110,614 118 762 125,259 131.971 137,675 140 078
Malaixia San xuat
71419 74,233 78.465 81.963 84,826 89,826 97,514 97.392
Tieu dung 69198 71,187 74,827 78.804 81.460 86,311 93,652 94,278
Indonexia S a n xuat
101.647 108,206 112,944 120,160 127,369 133,108 142,236 149,437
Tieu diing 88.230 90,746 94,481 105,921 11,234 118.150 127.168 134 399
Xingapo San x u a t
33,089 34,664 36.331 36.810 38,213 39 442 41,134 41717
Tieu diing 31,102 32,390 33,386 34.643 36,290 37.600 39.066 39,610 Nguon: World Bank (2011), Electricity power production & Electricity power consumtion. http://search.
worldbank.org/data?qterm=Electricity productin&language=EN, truy cap 20/8/20 U LUdng dien t i e u diing cua Viet N a m
khdng p h a i t a n g cao h a n g n a m va lUdng dien t i e u d u n g b i n h q u ^ n d l u ngUdi cua Viet N a m la tha'p nha't so vdi cac nUdc Thai Lan, Malaixia, Indonexia, Xingapo, T r u n g Qud'c. LUdng dien tidu diing binh q u a n d a u ngUdi ciia Viet N a m n a m 2008 la
799 KWh cao hdn Inddnexia 591 KWh va An Do 566 KWh, n a m 2010 lUdng dien tieu diing binh quSn di.u ngitdi cua Viet Nam 984 KWh v l n tha'p hdn n h i e u so vdi Thai L a n 2027 KWh, Malaixia 3489 KWh, Xingapo 8184 KWh, T r u n g Qud'c 2455 KWh thdi diem n a m 2008.
Nghien cCtu Kinh teso 407 - Thang 4/2012 19
Thdch thiirc an ninh ndng luang...
HiNH 3. San li^oTng tieu thu dien binh quan dau ngifdi Vidt Nam va cac niidc
kJ l l L J k im Iirl.
n v k ' i 1 a Malaixia D Xingapo • T r u n g Ou.i D An
Ngudn: Tfnh loin ciia t^c gia (iSm trdn sfi) til Worldbank (2011), Electric Power Consumtion (KWh Per Capita}. htlp://search.worldbank.org/data?qterm=Electricity+per+ capita & language =&format=
* Nam 2010 \i s6 liftu luong difin ti6u thu binh quan ddu ngirdi cija Viet Nam 984 kWh.
ThU ba, cac ehid'n lUdc chinh sach p h a t trien nang lifdng cua Vidt Nam: n h a n thiic ve tam quan trpng cua n a n g lifdng trong chie'n lifdc p h a t trien kinh te' - xa hoi ct tam chien liidc, Nghi quyet so' 18-NQ/TW ngay 25-10-2007 cua Bd Chinh tri ve dinh hifdng Chien lade p h a t trien n a n g liidng qud'c gia cua Vidt Nam dd'n n a m 2020, t^m nhin d^n n a m 2050 la cd scl cua Quyet dinh so' 1855/QD-TTg ngay 27-12-2007 phe duydt Chien lUdc p h a t trien nang lif<?ng qudc gia cua Viet Nam de'n n a m 2020, t i m nhin dd'n n a m 2050. Vdi muc tieu cu the: pha'n da'u dam bad cung ca'p dii nkng lifdng cho n h u c l u p h a t trien kinh td' - xa hoi: trong dd nang liidng sd cSfp n a m 2010 khoang 47,5 - 49,5 tridu TOE (ta'n d l u quy doi), de'n n a m 2020 dat khoang 100 - 110 tridu TOE, de'n n a m 2025 khoang 110 - 120 trieu TOE va de'n n a m 2050 khoang 310 - 320 trieu TOE^
Ngay 21-7-2011, Thii tUdng phd duydt Quy hoach p h a t trien didn liic quoc gia giai doan 2011 - 2020 cd xet den n a m 2030 (goi
t a t la Quy hoach dien VII). Theo quy hoach mdi, de'n nSm 2015 san lifdng didn san xu^t va n h a p k h i u / n a m cua Viet Nam phai dat 194-210 ti KWh, cung c&'p du nhu c l u dien trong nifdc (kha n a n g hien tai gan 100 ty KWh/nam). N a m 2020 phai diia to' may dien h a t n h a n d l u tien vao v a n h a n h . Chinh phu ydu c l u de'n n a m 2020, tong cdng sua't he thd'ng phai d^t k h o a n g 75.000 MW (hien tai t r e n 19.000 MW). Theo cd ca'u mdi, sU phu thudc vao thuy di$n se p h a i giam td 35%
hi$n nay xud'ng 2 3 , 1 % vao n a m 2020. l/u tien p h a t tridn nguon n a n g lifdng tai tao (di^n gid, didn m a t trdi, dien sinh khd'i...) tif khoang 3,5?''o n a m 2010 len 4,5% nam 2020, Nhiet didn t h a n la chu lUc chiem 46,8% san lif^ng didn san xua't, nhiet dien khi ga thien nhidn chie'm 20%.
' Quyift dinh s6: ISSS/QD-TTg ngay 27-12-2007 phe duyfit Chidh luoc ph&t tri^n n^ng luong qudc gia cua Viet Nam dffn nJm 2020, tdm nhin d6n nam 2050.
20 NghiSn cOu Kinh t€s6407 - Thing 4/2012
Thdch thuc an ninh ndng luong...
HINH 4: C h i e n lijfc'c c d c a u c a c n g u o n n a n g lufdng s a n x u a t didn t r o n g Q u y h o a c h VII
BNNef (Jenlh . GThuyJien • D.(f ailao ITtKiyil&ilicHnang ODi&ihalntdn IDienrtiapktikj
Ngudn; Tinh loin cCia idc giA tir cAc ngu6n
(1) S6 lieu nftm 2010 tdng hop tir http://www.mof.gov,vn/ponal/page/portal/mof_vn/i539781?pers_id=2177092
&item_id=35996444&p_details=l. tniy cap ngiy 20/8/2011 vk http://www.moit.gov.vn/web/guest/tintuc? p_p_id
=cmsviewportle[_WAR_vsi_portiets_INCTAN(rE_XbBg&p_p_action=l&p_p_state=normal&p_p_col_id=column- 2&p_p_coLpos=2&p_p_coLcount=3&_cmsviewportlet_WAR_vsi_portlets_INSrANCE_XbBg_catId=12&
_cmsviewportIei_WAR_vsi_portlets_INSTANCE_XbBg_curPg=0&._cmsview9onlet_WAR_vsi_portlets_INSTANCE_
XbBg_arcId=6968. truy cap 13/8/2011. V6i udc doin (trong d6, difin duoc san xua't til cAc ngu6n nang luong nho khac 2% tac gia dua vio c6t Thiiy Aiin tich nSng va nhifin dien khf 35% Ih udc doin sd g ^ diing).
(2) S6 iiftu nam 2020 v4 2030 til Quyd't djnh s6 1208QD-Trg ngSy 2L7-201I ciia Thii tudng Chi'nh phii ve Phe duySt quy hoach phit tri^n difin luc qu6c gia giai doan 2011 - 2020 co x^t den nam 2030.
3 . Nhufng t h a c h thiJfc d a n g d a t r a d o i v d i ph&t t r i ^ n n a n g lifdng Thd nhdt, k h a n a n g san xuS^t didn dap iing ydu c l u cong nghiep hda va p h a t tridn kinh te - xa hdi trong giai doan tai cS^u triic kinh te' trong thdi gian tdi, n h a t la phat trien cdng nghiep n a n g va cong nghiep ha t i n g dan sinh. So s a n h n a n g liic san xul't dien n a m 2008 b Viet N a m 73049 tridu KWh chi bang 49,54% so vdi Thai Lan (147 427 tridu KWh), 75% so vdi Malaixia (97 392 trieu KWh) va 48,88% so vdi Inddnexia (149 437 tridu KWh). N a m 2010 n a n g liic san xuat dien ciing chi 96000 tridu KWh cung chiia bang Malaixia n a m 2008, trong khi dan so" chiing t a cao g i n ga'p 4 l l n Malaixia.
Trong khi chifa t h ^ t a n g n h a n h difdc nang liic san xua't va giam tha't thoat dien trong k h a u t r u y i n tai t h i hidu qua trong vide sut dung didn tidu diing lai la phifdng an tdi vfu
h a n 2, muc tieu qud'c gia den nam 2015 ty le tiet kiem didn tieu diing tuf 5 - 8%, day chi la mdt ve' trong giai phap chti chifa thay the cho giai p h a p tdi ifu 1 la t a n g nang liie san xua't didn dap iing ydu c l u phat trien da't nifdc.
ThU hai, thid'u ngu6n vd'n dap iing y§u c l u phat t n e n nang lifdng va khdng cd k h a nang t h u hiit d l u tif nifdc ngoai, d l u tii tif nhan. Theo tinh toan eua Bd Cdng thKdng trong Quy hoach didn VII, tong vd'n d l u tii cho toan nganh dien den n a m 2020 khoang 929.700 ty dong (khoang 48,8 ty USD, mdi n a m c I n khoang 4,88 ty USD) phai dam bao nguon tai chinh Idn: 10 n a m d l u mdi n a m c I n 5 ty USD, 10 h a m sau mdi n a m 7,5 ty USD. De cd so von nay Bd Cdng thifdng gdi y se thiic hien gia b a n didn theo cd che thi trifcfng cd sii dieu tiet cua Nha nifdc. Hidn gia didn binh q u a n la 1.242 dong/KWh, v l n
NghiSn cOu Kinh tSs6407 - Thing 4/2012
Thdch thiirc an ninh ndng luong..,
tha'p hdn so vdi gia d^ nganh di§n c6 lai". Si^
k h a n g dinh cua nganh di$n cho rang, cd nhieu giai p h a p huy d^ng vtfn vko di§n, nhKng quan trpng la gid di^n phai dii bii dap ehi phi dd' cac nh& d l u tif d l u LK vao didn. Chinh sach gia bfin didn sd did'u chinh dd' dam bao chi phi san xua't di^n vao nflm 2020 khoang 8 - 9 cent/KWh.
Mot thiic tg' trong n h i l u n a m qua va c l trong tifdng lai la cfic n h a d l u tif nifdc ngoai e ngai d l u tii vao linh viie nky, m$e dii hp ra't quan tfim va dii thi^c liic. D i l u nky lidn quan dd'n cd e h i c^nh t r a n h ngftnh nSng lifpng va d$c quyIn eiia eac t$p doan nang lifdng nha nifdc. Nganh n a n g lifpng ndi chung va nganh di$n ndi rieng von bi chi trich ddc q u y I n va hifdng nhieu dac q u y I n da can trd p h a t tri^n l a n h m a n h nganh nang lifpng. D i l u nay ly giai tai sao nhieu n a m qua va tifdng lai khdng thu hiit difde d a u tif nifde ngoai, %d cd che quan ly nganh nang lifpng hien nay da giup cac tap doan nang lifdng n h a nifdc sinh r a dde quyIn tii nhien. Trong 25 dii a n quy hoach dien VII den n a m 2020 thi EVN dang xay diing 14 dii an, 11 dv( an chu^n bi d l u tif, trong dd cd 4 dii an dang liia chon n h a t h I u de khdi cdng n a m 2011. H l u h i t cac dii an d l u do EVN cdn lai la PVN, TKV, so it cac n h a d l u tii nifdc ngoai, vai tro quyet dinh v l n thudc v l cac tap doan 16n eua Nha nifdc.
Thd ba, tim phifdng an td'i ifu trong vi$e Ilia chon cac loai hinh p h a t trien ndng liidng de san xu^t didn. Trong dd, lUa chon n a n g liidng tai sinh de p h a t t r i l n b i n viing va liia ehpn nang lifpng gia re phii h^p vdi k h a nang cua cae tap doan kinh te n h a hade.
Thiie te de n h a n t h i y vdi k h a n a n g eua cac tap doan kinh te n h a nifdc nhii EVN, PVN, TKV vide li^a ehpn d l u tif vao cac lo^i nang lUdng cd suS^t d l u tif va ehi phi thS^p cho mSi KWh dien nhU t h u y didn, nhidt di$n t h a n , nhidt didn khi da va se t i l p tuc trong tiidng lai. Trong khi dd n a n g lapng tai tao va an toan nhif dien gid, didn m ^ t trbi lai cdn ra't xa vcfi, vi day la linh viic thuoe v l cac t a p doan nang lUdng nifde ngoai vdi ydu e l u
edng ngh§ cao va sua't d l u tif 16n. Trong Quy ho^eh di$n VII, d i n n a m 2020 ehi cd khoang 4.5% la n a n g lifdng tai tao, trong khi Vi$t Nam c6 Ipi t h i tii nhidn d l p h a t trien nang lifpng gid va m a t trdi. D i l u nky vCfa la mdt nghieh ly vCfa la m^t thi^c te d a n g suy nghi.
Ngoai ra, lua ehpn n a n g lifpng h a t nhan d l gia tfing ngu6n cung di^n h a y sii an toan la trdn h i t . Vi^t N a m d a n g rfift q u y l t tam theo dud'i n a n g lifpng h a t nhdn, cu t h i da quy ho^ch va d a n g t r i l n k h a i dii an didn hat n h a n b tinh N i n h T h u ^ n , khdi cdng nam 2014 va v^n h a n h n a m 2020. Theo dii tinh d i n n a m 2020 di$n h ^ t n h a n ehilm 1,3%
td'ng dien. S a u sii el^ n h a may di$n h a t nhan F u k u s h i m a b N h a t B a n t h a n g 3 - 2011, den nay cd nhieu J k i l n ndn q u y l t t a m theo duoi dii an nay hay khdng, vi thiic t l c h i dap ting 1,3% tdng lifpng di^n nhifng n l u khdng may xay r a sii co thi h a u q u a k h u n g khiep khon lifdng. Ngay ca Ddc Ik niidc sxi d u n g nang lifpng h?it n h a n e h i l m 22,8% san xufi't di§n n a m 2009 va eac n h a may v&n hknh tit eiing tuydn bo cha'm diit cac n h a may dien h a t nhfin vao n a m 2020. N h § t Ban 26,9%
san lifpng didn n a m 2009 cung da cd ddng t h a i giam d i n de'n huy bo cac n h a may di?n h a t n h a n va tim kiem cac nguon nang lUpng tai sinh an toan hdn. "Nidm tin cua eong chung vdo sU an todn cua hat nhdn dd lung lay tan gdc re"''. Theo q u a n d i l m cua tae gia, Vidt N a m ndn diing n g u I n vd'n t h a y vi phat trien di^n h a t nhfin chuyen s a n g p h a t triln nang lifpng tai t^o, trong dd n a n g lifpng gi6 va n a n g lifpng m$t trcfi phil hpp vdi tilm nang tii nhidn.
Thii tu, nh§p k h I u dien gay thidt h^i n h i l u hdn Ipi ich xdt v l dai h^in, Trong nin
* Tap doim Difin luc Vifit Nam (EVN) hifin dang rSt kh6 khan, nam 2010 da Id 8.18S t^ ddng, sfiu thflng df(u nam 201116 gfb 3.500 t^d6ng. Hien EVN dang no TflpdoSi DSu khf Vifit Nam (PVN) vh Tap doin COng nghifip than - kho4ng sin Viet Nam (TKV) gdn 10.000 ty ddng.
' dd 1ft phAt bi^u ciia Yukiya Amano, Tdng giim ddc CO quan Nftng lupng nguyftn tii qutfc t6 (IAEA), phfit bi^u khai mac H$i nghi bO trudng vi an tokn hat nhfln (6 chiic d Vienna (Ao) ngfty 20-6-2011.
22 NghiSn cHu^KiRh^td s6 407 - ThSng 4/2012
Thdch thuc an ninh nang luong..
kinh t l thi trifdng vide n h a p khSiu h a n g hda de dap iing n h u c l u tidu diing la binh thifdng, t u y nhidn, h a n g . h d a didn co y l u to' khac c I n lifu y dd la an ninh xet rieng ci khia canh k i n h t l - mdi trifdng. Cac nUdc b a n didn cho Viet N a m se chon phifdng an tdi Uu nha't, ed t h i dd la xay diing cac n h a may thuy didn ngay bidn gidi, ngay thifpng nguon cua cac ddng sdng. H a u qua cS'p hai khdng lifdng trifde chinh la can kiet n g u I n nifdc k h u viic ha lifu sdng Hong, sdng Ciiu Long b6i cac dii an thuy didn eua Trung Qud'c va Lao®, den viec gay r a lu lut va d nhidm mdi trifclng a n h hifcing dd'n h a n g tri^u ndng dan. Theo q u a n diem ciia tac gia chi c I n Viet N a m q u a n tri td't khSu truyen tai dien de t r a n h tha't thoat va t a n g cifdng k h a nang t i l t kidm dien se khdng c I n lifpng didn n h a p k h I u .
v a y d a u la nguyen n h a u cua nhiing thach thflc ve an ninh n a n g lifpng?
Mot Id, cd ehd' q u a n ly va d i l u tiet n g a n h n a n g lifdng chifa hpp ly, do la t i n h t r a n g ddc q u y I n tii n h i e n cua cae t a p doan k i n h t i n h a nifdc bao g6m ca EVN, PVN va TKV. Trong dd, EVN chi phoi ta't ca cac k h a u tCf s a n xua't dien, p h a t dien, t r u y e n t a i didn, p h a n phoi, m u a b a n dien va g a n nhif c h u ddng q u y e t d i n h gia. Tuy khdng cdn dde quyen h k h a u p h a t dien, song Tap doan Dien liic Viet N a m (EVN) v l n chid'm p h a n chi phd'i t r o n g td'ng cdng sua't nguon (khoang 65%), dong thdi n l m giii toan bd cac k h a u cdn lai nhif t r u y i n tai, p h a n phd'i dien^. Dieu n a y k h d n g tao r a mdi trifdng m i n h bach cho c a n h t r a n h , ndn n g a n can t h u hiit vd'n va d a u tif cua cae t a p doan n a n g lupng qud'c te, nha't la n a n g lUpng tai tao vd'n la t h i m a n h cua hp. D6ng thdi PVN, TKV va EVN mdi t a p doan n a m giG mdt t h i m a n h , t r o n g khi sii hpp tac va tieh hpp rdi rac chi vi ldi ich cue bd ehfl k h d n g vi dai cudc. PVN n l m giii u u t h i vi n h i e t didn khi vi hp n a m giii q u y I n k h a i t h a c d l u khi, TKV n h i e t didn t h a n vi n l m giii n g u o n t h a n , EVN Uu t h i v e t h u y dien. Khi b a n didn cho ngUdi d a n mdi t a p doan d l u
NghiSn cOU Kinh tSs6407 - Thdng 4/2012
p h a i cd Ipi n h u a n giii lai de p h a t t r i l n , sii hach toan k i n h te' d phUdng dien ldi ich t a p doan se d^y gia b a n didn cao hdn, ma le r a nd'u cd 8ii tich hpp va d i l u phd'i td't' thi gia b a n didn se thSfp hdn, hoac khdng de'n ndi phai t h u a 16 ma edn tich liiy vd'n cho d a u tif dai h^n.
Hai Id, t i m ehid'n lupc hoach dinh cho p h a t trien n g a n h n a n g lupng chi trong k h u d n khd' tU duy cua t a p doan EVN, t h i l u sii t h a m va'n cac t^ chflc n a n g lUpng qud'e te, hoac cac chuydn gia kinh t l va q u a n tri ddc lap. Kha n a n g kinh t l , ky t h u ^ t va n h a n lUe cua EVN dd'n d a u thi hoach dinh ehid'n lupc de'n dd. D i l u h a y t h e hidn ra't ro tron'g cac Quy hoach dien VI va VII. Le r a p h a i cd sU tach bidt ve q u a n ly giiia Bp Cdng thUdng va t a p doan EVN;
Dudng n h u mpi chien lUdc p h a t tridn n a n g lupng ciia Bo Cdng thUdng d l u qua sii eha'p b u t h a u h i t eua EVN.
Tom lai, bai toan n a n giai cho vi§c giai quye't nhflng thaeh thflc phat t r i l n nganh nang lupng Viet Nam trong n g l n h a n va dai h a n khdng phai la va'n d l gia ban dien la bao nhieu eho cd lai hoac huy ddng dii vd'n, ma chinh la cd che quan ly nganh n a n g lupng sao eho cd tinh canh t r a n h cao, giam t h i l u tha't thoat do t r u y i n tai didn, tiet kiem didn hieu qua va tach biet minh bach gifla cac chflc nang quan ly n h a nfldc va san xua't kinh doanh eua Bd Cong thfldng vdi cac tap doan EVN, PVN, TKV. Mat khac, can giai quye't bai toan tich hpp Ipi ich mdt each td'i Uu ciia cac nhdm ldi ich dang ton tai d ba tap doan nang lUpng cd a n h hfldng Idn nha't dd la EVN, PVN va TKV sao cho lay ldi ich ehung lam ndng cd't. Ngoai ra ra't e I n cd sii t h a m va'n eua cac td' chflc qud'c t l va chuyen gia ddc lap trong nganh n a n g Iflpng dd co sii
•* Ben 1^ hdi nghi cSip cao ASEAN iSn 18, Thii tudng Lao Thoongsing Thammavong thOng bdo tam dUng du an thuy difin Xayaburi, day la quye't dinh do siic ep cua cdng ddng qud'c t^ d^ bao vt vUng ha lim s6ng MfikSng.
''http://daukhi.vietnaninet.vn/vn/tin-moi/1428/nhung-van-de -dat-ra-trong-tai-co-cau-nganh-dien.html Nhihig vSh d^
dat ra trong tdi co ca'u nganh difin, truy cap 13-8-2011.
23
Iliich thAc an ninh ning luong..
li^a chon thSng minh trong vi$c d^nh d8i giQa y^u t8' kinh t^ vk y^u ttf an toin, giQa yg'u t^ phat trifo hi$n t^ii vil phit trifo bin vflng hudng vl tUdng lai.
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msviewportlet_WAR_vsi_ponlets_INST/^NCEjajBg_c atId=12&_cmsviewportlet_WAR_vsLponlets_INSrAN CE_XbBg_curPg=0&_cmsviewportlet_WAR_vsi_portle ts_INSTANCE_XbBg_arcId=6968. Tniy cap 13-8-2011.
24 Nghien COV Kinh t€s64Q7 - Thdng 4/2012'.
