ﻲ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻏﺮﺑ ﻱ ﻫﺎ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﻴﺪﺭﻭﻟﻮﮊﻳﻚ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺭﮊﻳﻢ ﺁ

ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻪﻠﺠﻣ ،ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺰﻴﺨﺑﺁ ﻭ ﻊﺗﺮﻣ ﻪﻳﺮﺸﻧ ٦٥

ﻩﺭﺎﻤﺷ ، ٣ ﺰﻴﻳﺎﭘ ، ١٣٩١ ﻪﺤﻔﺻ ﺯﺍ ، ٣١٥

ﺎﺗ ٣٢٨

٣١٥

ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻢﻳﮊﺭ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ

ﻚﻳﮊﻮﻟﻭﺭﺪﻴﻫ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ

ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﺑﺮﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲ

ﺯﻮﺣ ﺓ ﻪﻴﻣﻭﺭﺍ ﻪﭼﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺰﻴﺨﺑﺁ

ﻱﺭﻮﻤﻴﺗ ﻱﺪﻬﻣ ﺢﺘﻓ ﻲﻠﻋ ،۱

*ﻩﺩﺍﺯ

۲

ﻴﻫ ﻮﻀﻋ ۱

ﺄ ﺪﻬﺸﻣ ﻲﺳﻭﺩﺮﻓ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ، ﻥﺍﻭﺮﻴﺷ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺯﺭﻭﺎﺸﻛ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻲﻤﻠﻋ ﺕ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ،

ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺭﺎﻳﺩﺎﺘﺳﺍ ۲

ﻭ ﯼﺯﺭﻭﺎﺸﮐ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ

ﯽﻟﺎﻋ ﺵﺯﻮﻣﺁ ﻊﻤﺘﺠﻣ ، ﻥﺎﮐﺩﺭﺍ

ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ،

) ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :

٣١ / ٣ / ٩٠ ﺐﻳﻮﺼﺗ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ ، :

١٩ / ١١ / ٩٠   (

ﮑﭼ ﻴ ﻩﺪ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺟ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻳ ﺯﺎﺳ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﻥﺎ ﻱ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﮏﻳﮊﻮﻟﻭﺭﺪﻴﻫ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

، ﻧﻻﻮﻃ ﻲ ﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻱ

ﺍﺮﺷ ﻳ ﻂ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ

ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ،ﺶﻬﺟ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ،ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺪﻗﺎﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲ

ﻭ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻦﻳﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ

ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﺘﺧﺍ ﺭﺩ .

ﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻳ ﻦ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻲ ﺍﺮﺷ ﻳ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻂ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺟ ﻪﻧﻻﺎﺳ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻳ

ﻥﺎ ۱۰ ﺍ ﻳ ﻫ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴ ﻴ ﺮﺘﻣﻭﺭﺪ ﻱ ﺎﺑﺭﺫﺁ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻳ

ﺑﺮﻏ ﻥﺎﺠ ﻲ ﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻩﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲ

۳۱ ﻪﻟﺎﺳ ) ۱۳۸۳

‐ ۱۳۵۳ ( ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ .

ﺑ ﺍ ﻪ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘﺎﻧ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻱ

ﺮﺿ ﻳ ﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺐ ﻲ

ﭙﺳﺍ ﻴ ﻦﻣﺮ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻭ ﻦﻣ ﻝﺍﺪﻨﻛ ﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ، ﻲ

ﻥﺩﻮﺑ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘﺎﻧ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫ ﻱ

ﻥﺍﺭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ، ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻬﺟ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ

ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘﺎﻧ ﻱ ﺯﻮﺗ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻳ

ﻊ ﻲﻤﻛﺍﺮﺗ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ

ﻱ ﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻳ

ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻦ

ﺯﻮﺗ ﻳ ﻤﺳﺍ ﻑﻭﺮﮔﻮﻤﻠﮐ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻊ ﻴ

ﺍﺮﺑ ﻑﻮﻧﺮ ﻱ ﺎﻘﻣ ﻳ ﺗﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻪﺴ ﻲ

ﺩﺮﮔ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻳ

ﺪ . ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ

ﺎﺸﻧ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﻪﮐ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥ

ﺍﻳ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴ ﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲ

ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺪﻗﺎﻓ ﻭ ﺶﻬﺟ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ، )

ﺍ ﺰﺠﺑ ﻳ ﻮﻠﻣﺍﺮﻬﺑ ﻞﭘ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴ (

ﺪﻧﺩﻮﺑ . ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ

ﺯﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻳ

ﻊ

ﺗﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻲ ﻌﺒﺗ ﺎﻣﺎﮔ ﻴ ﻲﻣ ﺖ ﮐ ﻨ ﺪﻨ .

ﻩﮊﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺪﻴﻠﻛ : ﺭ ،ﻲﮔﺪﻨﻛﺍﺮﭘ ،ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﻲﺑﺩ ﻭ

ﻦﻳﺮﺘﻬﺑ ،ﺶﻬﺟ ،ﺪﻧ ﺵﺯﺍﺮﺑ

* ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ :

ﻦﻔﻠﺗ : ۷۲۲۰۹۰۹

‐ ۰۳۵۲ ﺲﻛﺎﻓ : ٧٢٢٦٧٦٧

‐ ٠٣٥٢ E-mail: afathzadeh@yazd.ac.ir

٣١٦

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﻲﻜﻳﮊﻮﻟﻭﺭﺪﻴﻫ ﻢﻳﮊﺭ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

..

.

ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻲﻋﻮﻨﺼﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻲﻤﻴﻠﻗﺍ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ

ﻥﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻤﻫ

ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﺍ ﻱﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ

ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻚﺸﺧ ﻪﻤﻴﻧ ﻭ ﻚﺸﺧ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻠﺋﺎﺴﻣ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻜﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ

ﻜﻳﮊﻮﻟﻮﻛﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺎﺑ ﻲ

ﺁ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻥ

ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﻐﺗ ﺖﺧﺎﻨﺷ ﻲﻳﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻴﻴ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺮ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﮏﻳﮊﻮﻟﻭﺭﺪﻴﻫ

ﺮﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺪﻣ ﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ

ﺕﻼﮑﺸﻣ ﻭ ﻞﺋﺎﺴﻣ

ﺣﺍﺮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻲ

ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ، ﺭ ﻳ ﺰ ﻱ ﺪﻣ ﻭ ﻳ ﺮ ﻳ ﻩﺯﺎﺳ ﺖ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﺏﺁ ﺎﺑ ﻪﮐ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻲ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻱ ﺮﺳ ﻱ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺑ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺤﺻ ﮎﺭﺩ ﻪ

ﻴ ﺤ ﻲ

ﺖﺳﺩ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻳ

ﺖﻓﺎ . ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﻳﺎﻔﻛ ﻡﺪﻋ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺗﺍﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲ

ﺮﺟ ﻳ ﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺚﻋﺎﺑ ﻥﺎ ﻳ

ﻌﻄﻗ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺶ ﻴ

ﺭﺩ ﺖ

ﻟﺎﻧﺁ ﻴ ﺎﻫﺰ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻃﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ

(Ganji et al., 2001)

. ﺍﺬﻟ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻲﻧﻻﻮﻃ ﺖﺸﮔﺯﺎﺑ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺴﻳﺎﺑ ﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺴﺟ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻴ ﺮﺘﺸ

ﻟﺎﻧﺁ ﻴ ﺎﻫﺰ ﻱ ﻧ ﻪﻃﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻴ

ﺿﺮﻓ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺰ ﻴ

ﻪ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻨﮕﻤﻫ ﻲ ﻡﺪﻋ ،

ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻲ

ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﻮﺘﺳﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

. ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ

ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺮﺟ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻳ

ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎ ﻲ

ﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﻲ

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺭﺍﺩ

ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻳ ﻔﻨﻣ ﺎ ﻲ ﺑ ﻴ ﺮﺟ ﺕﺍﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻦ ﻳ

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻭ ﻥﺎ ﻭ ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ

ﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲ

ﻐﺗ ﻞﺜﻣ ﻴﻴ ﺮﺑﺭﺎﮐ ﺕﺍﺮ ﻱ

ﻳ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺎ

ﺒﻃ ﻴ ﻌ ﻲ ﻣ ﻐﺗ ﻞﺜ ﻴﻴ ﻠﻗﺍ ﺮ ﻴ ﻲﻣ ﺥﺭ ﻢ ﺪﻫﺩ

. ﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻲ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺎﻫ

ﻧﻴ ﺷﺎﻧ ﺰ ﻲ ﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻳ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﮐ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦ ﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

ﻳ ﺒﻃ ﻂ ﻴ ﻌ ﻲ

ﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺎﺘﻓﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﻲ

ﺍﺮﺷ ﻥﺩﺯ ﻢﻫ ﺮﺑ ﺚﻋﺎﺑ ﻳ

ﻂ

ﺒﻃ ﻴ ﻌ ﻲ ﺮﺟ ﺮﺑ ﻢﮐﺎﺣ ﻳ

ﺩﺮﮕﻧ ﻥﺎ ﻳ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪ .

Mahdavi et al.

(2010)

ﻱﺮﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺩ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻜﻳﮊﻮﻟﻭﺭﺪﻴﻫ ﻝﺰﻗ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﻪﺳ ﺭ

ﺪﻨﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺩﻭﺮﻤﻧ ﻭ ﺩﻭﺮﺟﺎﺟ ،ﻥﺯﻭﺍ .

ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ

ﻝﺪﻣ ﻥﺯﻭﺍ ﻝﺰﻗ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺍﺪﻧ ﺺﻴﺨﺸﺗ ﻭﺩ

ﻪﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺘﺴﺑ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ

ﻝﺪﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺎﻳ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻭ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﺗﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ .

Zare et al.

(2010)

ﺭ ﺪﻧﻭ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻚﻴﺗﺎﻤﻴﻠﻛﻭﺭﺪﻴﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﺑﺮﻏ ﻥﺎﺠﻳﺎﺑﺭﺫﺁ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ

ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻦﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻄﺧ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ

‐ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻝﺍﺪﻨﻛ

ﺪﻧﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ .

ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ

ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺪﻗﺎﻓ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺑﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎﺑ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺰﻴﻟﺎﻧﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﺖﻬﺑﺎﺸﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺭﺎﭘ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻚﻳﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘﺎﻧ ﻭ ﻚﻳﺮﺘﻣﺍ .

Fathzadeh et al.

(2011)

ﺭﺩ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻪﻄﻘﻧ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻣﺮﻴﭙﺳﺍ ﻭ ﺖﺸﮔﺯﺎﺑ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﻲﺑﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺍﺯ ﺪﻨﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺩﻭﺭ .

ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ

ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ

ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻮﺳ ﺪﻨﻫﺪﻧﺎﺸﻧ ﻮﺳ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﻭﺰﻧ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻩ

ﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﺑﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ .

ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﺖﺸﮔﺯﺎﺑ ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺭﺩz

ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ۱۲ / ۲

‐ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻭ t

ﺭﺩ

ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﻣﺮﻴﭙﺳﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ۰۹

/ ۳

‐ ﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺪﺑ .

Fanta et al.

(2001)

ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻲ ﻐﺗ ﻴﻴ ﺮﺟ ﺕﺍﺮ ﻳ ﻪﻧﻻﺎﺳ ﻥﺎ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ۵۰۲ ﺍ ﻳ ﻫ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴ ﻴ

ﺮﺘﻣﻭﺭﺪ ﻱ ﺮﻓﺁ ﺏﻮﻨﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻳ

ﺎﻘ

ﺪﻨﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ .

ﺯﺍ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻓ ﻴ ﺍﺮﺑ ﺮﺸ ﻱ ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲ ﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻲ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺯﺍ ،ﺎﻫ ﻴ

ﻄﺧ ﻥﻮ ﻲ ﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﺳ ﻱ

ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ

ﺕﺮﺑﻮﻫ ﺵﻭﺭ

(Hubert, 2000)

ﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻬﺟ

ﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺪﻧﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﻫ .

Adeloye & Montaseri

(2002)

ﻧ ﻴ ﺭﺩ ﺰ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﻟﺎﻧﺁ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻴ

ﭘ ﺰ ﻴ ﮕﺘﺳﻮ ﻲ ،ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ،

ﺯﻮﺗ ﺵﺯﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺶﻨﮐﺍﺮﭘ ﻳ

ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻊ ﻱ

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻫ

ﻱﺎ

ﺍﻳ ﺪﻨﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻥﺎﺘﺴﻠﮕﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮ .

ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ

ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﭙﺳﺍ ﻴ ﻭ ﻦﻣﺮ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲ ﮔﺪﻨﮐﺍﺮﭘ ﻲ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫ

ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘﺎﻧ ﻱ ﻥﺍﺭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻳ

ﺯﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻦ ﻳ

ﻊ

ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺵﺯﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ

ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺮﺿ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻳ

ﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺐ ﻲ

ﺳﺮﺗ ﻴ ﻤ ﻲ

ﺗﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻲ ﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﺍ ﻳ ﻪﺳ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﮒﻮﻟ ﻥﺍﺮ

ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻱ ﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻱ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﭘ ﮒﻮﻟ ﻥﺎﺘﺴﻠﮕﻧﺍ ﻴ

ﻪﺳ ﻥﻮﺳﺮ

ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻱ ﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﻲ ﺪﻧﺩﻮﻤﻧ .

Kahya & Kalayci (2004)

ﻪﺑ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺰﻴﻟﺎﻧﺁ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻨﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻪﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺑﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻲﺑﺩ

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﻪﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺏﺮﻏ ﺭﺩ ﻊﻗﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺪﻗﺎﻓ ﻪﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻕﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻊﻗﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ .

Cigizoglo et al.

(2005)

ﻧ ﻴ ﺰ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﺑﺩ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺮﺜﮐﺍﺪﺣ ﻭ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ،ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻱ

ﺯﺍ

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﮐﺮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻴ

ﺯﺍ ﻪ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘﺎﻧ ﻱ ﻭ ﻝﺍﺪﻨﮐ ﻦﻣ

ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻱ ﺹﻮﺼﺨﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ t

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﮐﺮﺗ ﺏﻮﻨﺟ ﻭ ﺏﺮﻏ ﻴ

ﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﻪ ﻲﻳ ﺪﻧﺩﻮﻤﻧ .

ﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻴ ﻦ

Aksoy (2007)

ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲ

ﻐﺗ ﻴﻴ ﮔﺪﻨﮐﺍﺮﭘ ﺕﺍﺮ ﻲ

ﺯﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ،ﺶﻬﺟ ، ﻳ

ﺗﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻊ ﻲ

ﮐﺮﺗ ﺏﺮﻏ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻴ

ﺶﻬﺟ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻪ

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺭﺍﺩ ﻱ ﺯﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻭ ﺩﺮﮑﻧ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻳ

ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻊ

ﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺎﻣﺎﮔ .

Hamed (2008)

ﺭﺩ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺧ

ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﻚﻳﮊﻮﻟﻭﺭﺪﻴﻫ ۵۱

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ

ﺎﻴﻧﺩ ﻢﻬﻣ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ

. ﻦﻣ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻭﺍ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ﻝﺍﺪﻨﻛ

ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻪﻠﺠﻣ ،ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺰﻴﺨﺑﺁ ﻭ ﻊﺗﺮﻣ ﻪﻳﺮﺸﻧ ٦٥

ﻩﺭﺎﻤﺷ ، ٣ ﺰﻴﻳﺎﭘ ، ١٣٩١ ﻪﺤﻔﺻ ﺯﺍ ، ٣١٥

ﺎﺗ ٣٢٨

٣١٧

ﻦﻣ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺡﻼﺻﺍ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻭ ﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻝﺍﺪﻨﻛ

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻪﻃﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ .

Kim et al.

(2010)

ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﻲﻠﺼﻓ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ

ﺪﻨﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣﺁ ﻙﻭﺮﺑ ﺰﻴﺨﺑﺁ ﻩﺯﻮﺣ .

ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﺘﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺩﻮﻌﺻ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺮﻴﺧﺍ ﻪﻫﺩ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺑﻼﻴﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ .

Ghorbani et al.

(2010)

ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ

ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

ﺭﺩ ﺏﻼﻴﺳ ﻲﻧﺍﻭﺍﺮﻓ ﺰﻴﻟﺎﻧﺁ

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﺎﺑ ﺰﻳﺮﺒﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ

ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻡﺮﻧ ﺭﺍﺰﻓﺍ

Mathematica

ﺪﻨﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ .

Moran et al.

(2011)

ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ

ﻢﻳﮊﺭ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﻲﻜﻳﮊﻮﻟﻭﺭﺪﻴﻫ ﻱﺍ

ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ۴۵

ﺭﺩ ﻪﻟﺎﺳ

ﺪﻨﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺎﻴﻧﺎﭙﺳﺍ ﻝﺎﻤﺷ .

ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ

ﻦﻳﺍ

ﻢﻳﮊﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺮﻛ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﮕﺸﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﻚﻳﮊﻮﻟﻭﺭﺪﻴﻫ

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ

ﻲﺑﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺏﺎﻧﺍﻭﺭ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺸﮔ ﻞﻳﺎﻤﺘﻣ ﻲﺑﻼﻴﺳ ﻚﻴﭘ .

ﺍ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻳ ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴ ﻲ

ﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻧ ﺭﻮﮐﺬﻣ ﺕﺎﻌ ﻴ

ﺰ

ﻤﻫﺍ ﻴ ﺍﺰﺴﺑ ﺖ ﻲﻳ ،ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﺮﻳﺯ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺍ

ﻳ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦ

ﻣﺯ ﻴ ﻪﻨ ﻳﺎﻫ ﻲ ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻥﻮﭽﻤﻫ ﻲ

ﻐﺗ ﻴﻴ ﻠﻗﺍ ﺮ ﻴ ﺮﻓ ﺮﻃﺎﺨﺑ ﻢ ﺁﻳ

ﺎﻫﺪﻨ ﻲﻳ

ﺧﺫ ،ﺵﺭﺎﺑ ﻞﺜﻣ ﻴ

ﺗﺎﻔﻠﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺮ ﻲ

ﻲﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺿﻮﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﮐ ﮔ

ﻴ ﺩﺮ

ﺴﺑ ﻴ ﭘ ﺭﺎ ﻴ ﭽ ﻴ ﻨﭽﻤﻫ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪ ﻴ

ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻦ ﻲ ﺪﭘ ﻳ ﻩﺪ ﻐﺗ ﻞﺜﻣ ﻱﺍ ﻴﻴ

ﺮ

ﻠﻗﺍ ﻴ ﺷﺎﻧ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﮑﻤﻣ ﻢ ﻲ

ﺮﻓ ﺯﺍ ﺁﻳ ﺎﻫﺪﻨ ﻱ ﭘ ﻴ ﭽ ﻴ ﻩﺪ ﻪﺘﺧﺎﻨﺷﺎﻧ ﻱﺍ

ﺍ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﻪﮐ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻳ

ﻤﻫﺍ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻦ ﻴ

ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻭ ﻞﺤﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺖ

ﻝﺎﺳ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻱ ﺏﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲ ﻗﺩ ﻴ ﻖ

ﻲﻣ ﻦﺷﻭﺭ ﺍﺭ ﺭﻮﺑﺰﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺯﺎﺳ

. ﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻴ ﻟﺩ ﻦ ﻴ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻞ ﺍﻳ

ﻦ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺟ ﻪﻧﺍﺯﻭﺭ ﻲﺑﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻳ

ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻥﺎ ﻱ

ﺯﺍ

ﺍﻳ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴ ﺪﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻳ ﻤ ﻲ ﺎﺑﺭﺫﺁ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻳ

ﺑﺮﻏ ﻥﺎﺠ ﻲ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

ﻬﺗ ﻴ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪ ﺩﺮﮔ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻪﻧﻻﺎﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻳ

ﺪ . ﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻳ

ﻦ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ

ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲ ﻪﻔﻟﻮﻣ ﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲ

ﻐﺗ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻴﻴ

ﺬﭘﺮ ﻳ ﺮ ﻱ ﺮﺟ ﻳ ﻭ ﻥﺎ

ﺎﻘﻣ ﻳ ﻝﻭﺍﺪﺘﻣ ﻪﺴ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ

ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻐﺗ ﺖﺧﺎﻨﺷ ﻴﻴ

ﺕﺍﺮ ﮏﻳﮊﻮﻟﻭﺭﺪﻴﻫ )

ﮔﺪﻨﮐﺍﺮﭘ ،ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻲ

ﻭ ﺶﻬﺟ ،

ﺯﻮﺗ ﻳ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻊ ﻱ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ( ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻱ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺎﺑﺭﺫﺁ ﻳ ﺑﺮﻏ ﻥﺎﺠ ﻲ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺎﺑ ﻱ

ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ )

۳۱ ﻝﺎﺳ (

ﺖﺳﺍ .

ﺵﻭﺭ ﻭ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﺎﻫ

ﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻳ ﻦ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻱ

ﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻳ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴ ﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻴ ﺮﺘﻣﻭﺭﺪ ﻱ

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻊﻗﺍﻭ ﺎﺑﺭﺫﺁ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻳ ﺑﺮﻏ ﻥﺎﺠ ﻲ

ﻭ

ﺑ ﻪ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﺹﻮﺼﺧ ﻬﺘﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻳ ﻣﻭﺭﺍ ﻪﭼﺎ ﻴ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻪ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ )

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ۱ .(

ﻻ ﺿﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺯ ﻴ

ﻢﻬﺳ ﻪﮐ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺢ ﺏﺁ

ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻳ ﻣﻭﺭﺍ ﻪﭼﺎ ﻴ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻪ ﺎﺑﺭﺫﺁ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻳ ﻥﺎﺠ

ﺑﺮﻏ ﻲ ﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺍﺪﻘ ۸۵ ﻭ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ

ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺎﺑﺭﺫﺁ ﻳ ﻗﺮﺷ ﻥﺎﺠ ﻲ

۱۵ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

) ﺏﺁ ﻲﻣﺎﻬﺳ ﺖﻛﺮﺷ

ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻲﺑﺮﻏ ﻥﺎﺠﻳﺎﺑﺭﺫﺁ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺍ (.

ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻝﻮﻃ

ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻱ ﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻳ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴ ﺐﺨﺘﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ۳۱

ﺑ ﻭ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻴ

ﻝﺎﺳ ﻦ ﻱﺎﻫ

۱۳۵۳ ﻲﻟﺍ ۱۳۸۳ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ .

ﻞﻜﺷ ﺭﺩ ۱

ﺶﻨﻛﺍﺮﭘ ﻪﺸﻘﻧ

ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴﻳﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ .

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ۱

‐ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻲﮕﻟﻮﭼ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ (%)ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ (m3/s) ٣٢

/

٠ ٠/٧٤ ٤٢/٣٥ ٢/٢٠٦ ٥/٢٠٩ ﻪﻴﻣﻭﺭﺍ ﺪﻨﺑ

١٥ /

٠ ٠/٨٨ ٣٣/٦ ٢/١٦ ٦/٤٢ ﻪﻧﺎﺧ ﻱﺎﮑﺑﺍﺭﺩ

٤١ /

٠ ٠/٤٦ ٣٩/٣ ٣/٢٣ ٨/٢٢ ﺝﺰﻳﺩ

٤٥ /

٠ ٠/٥٦ ٣٤/٤١ ٢/٥٨ ٧/٥٢ ﺩﺎﺑﺁ ﻢﺷﺎﻫ

٣٣ /

٠ ٠/٤٨ ٤٨/٧٢ ١/٣١ ٢/٦٨ ﻭﺮﺳ ﺯﺮﻣ

٢١ /

٠ ٠/٥٢ ٣٧/٣٧ ١/٩٣ ٥/١٦ ﺩﺎﺑﺁﺮﻴﻣ

١٦ /

٠ ٠/٨٧ ٤٦/٩٦ ٢٥/٧٣ ٥٤/٧١ ﻱﺭﺎﺳ

ﺶﻴﻤﻗ ٤٥

/

٠ ٠/٧ ٤٤/٥ ٣/٨٥ ٨/٦٥ ﺩﻭﺭﺎﺑﺎﺑ

٢٢٥ /

٠ ٠/٨٥ ٤٤/٩٧ ٥/٤٤ ١٢/١١ ﻮﻠﻣﺍﺮﻬﺑ ﻞﭘ

٢١ /

٠ ٠/٥٣ ٤٣/٢٨ ٧/٩٨ ١٨/٤٥ ﻥﺎﻴﻧﺁ ﻞﭘ

٣١٨

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﻲﻜﻳﮊﻮﻟﻭﺭﺪﻴﻫ ﻢﻳﮊﺭ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

..

.

ﻞﻜﺷ ۱

‐ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴﻳﺍ ﺶﻨﻛﺍﺮﭘ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﺮﺟ ﻳ ﻥﺎ

‐ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ

ﻝﻭﺍﺪﺘﻣ ﺷﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ ﻲ

ﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﮐ ﻱ ﺨﺸﺗ ﻴ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺺ

ﻲﻣ ﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻳ ﺩﺎﺠ ﻳ ﻄﺧ ﻝﺪﻣ ﮏ ﻲ

ﺑ ﻴ ﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻦ ﻳ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺮ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻭ ﺎﻫ

) ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ۱ ( ﺖﺳﺍ

(Hameed et al., 1998)

:

۱ (

i

i a bi v

Y = + . +

ﻪﮐ

Yi

،

n 2 1 i= , ,...,

ﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻳ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺮ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ،i

ﻭ a b

ﺍﺮﺿ ﻳ ﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺐ ﻴ ﻭ ﻥﻮ

vi

ﺎﻄﺧ ﻱ ﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻲ ﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻴ ﮕﻧﺎ ﻴ ﻭ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻦ

ﺭﺍﻭ ﻳ ﺲﻧﺎ

2

sv

ﺖﺳﺍ . ﺷ ،ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻴ

ﺭﻮﻄﺑ ﻂﺧ ﺐ

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺭﺍﺩ ﻱ ﻏ ﺭﺩ ،ﺖﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﻴ

ﺍ ﺮ ﻳ ﺎﻋﺩﺍ ﺕﺭﻮﺼﻨ ﻱ

ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻞﮑﺸﻣ .

ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘﺎﻧ ﻱ ﺮﺿ ﻳ ﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺐ ﻲ

ﻪﺒﺗﺭ ﻱﺍ

ﭙﺳﺍ ﻴ ﻨﻌﻣ ﺡﻮﻄﺳ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻦﻣﺮ ﻲ

ﺭﺍﺩ ﻱ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻳ

ﮑ ﻲ

ﺰﮔ ﺯﺍ ﻳ ﻪﻨ ﺎﻫ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻱ ﺍﺮﺑ

ﻱ ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

(Adeloye & Montaseri, 2002)

. ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﺔﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺯﺮﻃ

ﻪﺒﺗﺭ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺍ

ﻲﺟﻭﺯ ﻱﺎﻫ

) , (xi yi

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

k 2 1 i= , ,K,

ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﮐ

Adeloye &

Montaseri (2002)

ﻭ

Aksoy (2007)

ﻧ ﻴ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺰ

ﺯ ﺡﺮﺷ ﻳ ﻲﻣ ﺮ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ : ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ

ﻲﻣ ﻪﺒﺗﺭ ﻥﺎﺷﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺐﺴﺣﺮﺑ ﺎﻫx

ﻭ ﻢﻴﻫﺩ

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻦﻴﻤﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺎﻫy

ﻞﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﺲﭙﺳ ،ﻢﻴﻫﺩ

ﻪﺒﺗﺭ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺍﺭ ﺝﻭﺯ ﺮﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ

di

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻢﻴﻫﺩ

ﻡﻭﺩ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﺭﺩ ،ﻩﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻌﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫd

ﻴﻴ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻦ ﺎﭘ

ﻥﺎﻳ

ﺎﺑ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ

) ٢ ( ﻪﺒﺗﺭ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻱﺍ

ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺪﺑ ﺁﻳ

ﺪ .

٢ (

)

(n 1 n

d 6 1

r 2

k

1 i

2 i

s = −

∑

−

=

ﺮﻔﺻ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺖﺤﺗ ( )H0

ﺑ ﻪﮐ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻴ

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎ ﺪﻨﮐ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

:

۳ (

2

s

s 1 r

2 r n

t −

= −

ﻪﮐ ﺯﻮﺗ t

ﻳ ﻊ ﺘﺳﺍ t

ﻴ ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﺖﻧﺩﻮ ﻱ

2 n−

ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .

ﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻳ

ﻧﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺮ ﻲ ﺯﻮﺗ ﻳ ﻊ ﺘﺳﺍ t

ﻴ ﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﻧﺩﻮ ﻱ

ﺢﻄﺳ

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺭﺍﺩ ﻱ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻭ α

ﻱ

2 n−

ﺖﺳﺪﺑ

ﻲﻣ ﺁﻳ ﺪ . ﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻳ ﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺖ ﻳ ﺮ ﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺎﺑ t

ﻳ ﻧﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺮ ﻲ ﺎﻘﻣ ﻳ ﻪﺴ

ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻪﻠﺠﻣ ،ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺰﻴﺨﺑﺁ ﻭ ﻊﺗﺮﻣ ﻪﻳﺮﺸﻧ ٦٥

ﻩﺭﺎﻤﺷ ، ٣ ﺰﻴﻳﺎﭘ ، ١٣٩١ ﻪﺤﻔﺻ ﺯﺍ ، ٣١٥

ﺎﺗ ٣٢٨

٣١٩

ﻲﻣ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ

2 n

t 2

t> _{α/ ,−}

ﻳ ﺎ

2 n

t 2

t<− _{α/ ,−}

ﻩﺎﮕﻧﺁ ،

H0

ﺩﺭ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻱﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘﺎﻧ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻦﻣ

‐ ﻲﻣ ﻝﺍﺪﻨﻛ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﺒﺗﺭ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

ﻱﺮﺳ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﻮﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

. ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﻳﺰﻣ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ

ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻪﺒﺗﺭ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻦﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

ﻲﻣ ،ﻲﺘﻴﺻﺎﺧ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﮕﻟﻮﭼ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺩﺮﻛ (Partal & Kahya, 2006) .

ﻦﻣ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺭﺩ

‐ ﺮﮔﺍ ،ﻝﺍﺪﻨﻛ

x1, x2, …, xn

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﻧﺁ ،ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﻱﺍ :

٤ (

( )

∑ ∑

⁻

= = +

−

=ⁿ¹

1 k

n

1 k j

k

i x

x sign

S

۵ (

⎪⎭

⎪⎬

⎫

⎪⎩

⎪⎨

⎧

<

−

−

=

−

>

− +

=

−

0 x x if 1

0 x x if 0

0 x x if 1 x

x sign

k j

k j

k j k

j

) (

) (

) (

) (

ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻊﻗﺍﻭ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺮﻫ

ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ

. ﻲﻣ ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﺯﺍ ،ﺎﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

ﻪﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻭ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫ

ﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺵﻭﺭ .

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ ﺖﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺎﻫ

،ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺲﻧﺎﻳﺭﺍﻭ ﺭ ﺯﺍ S

ﺍ ﻄﺑ ﻪ ) ٦ ( ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺪﺑ ﺪﻳﺁ

:

۶ (

18 5 t 2 1 t t 5 n 2 1 n n ) S ( Var

m

i i

i i

i ⎥⎦

⎢ ⎤

⎣

⎡ − + − − +

= ∑

=

) )(

( ) )(

(

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ :

:n

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ،ﺎﻫ

:m

ﻩﺮﮔ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻭ ﺎﻫ

:t

ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ

ﻲﻣ ﻩﺮﮔ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻩﺮﮔ ﺯﺍ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ

،ﻱﻭﺎﺴﻣ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﻜﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ،ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺮﮔ ﻚﻳ ﻞﻴﻜﺸﺗ ﻱﻭﺎﺴﻣ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻭ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ

ﻩﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻡﺍ m

ﻲﻣt

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ )

٧ ( ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﺖﺳﺪﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ

:

٧ (

⎪⎪

⎪

⎭

⎪⎪

⎪

⎬

⎫

⎪⎪

⎪

⎩

⎪⎪

⎪

⎨

⎧

+ <=

− >

=

0 S ) if S ( Var

1

S0 if S 0

0 S if ) S ( Var

1 S

Z

ﺖــﺳﺍ ﻪــﻓﺮﻃ ﻭﺩ ﻥﻮــﻣﺯﺁ ﻚــﻳ ،ﻥﻮــﻣﺯﺁ ﻦــﻳﺍ .

ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎــﻨﺑ

ﻪﻛ ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺻ

Z 2

Z ≤ _α

ﻥﺎـﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺽﺮـﻓ α

ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﺩﺭ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺽﺮﻓ ،ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ

ﺪــﺷ ﺪــﻫﺍﻮﺧ .

ﺮﻔــﺻ ﺽﺮــﻓ ﺩﺭ ﺖــﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ )

ﺪــﻧﻭﺭ ﺩﻮــﺟﻭ ﺭﺩ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ ( ﻪـﻛ ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ

0 S>

ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻱﺮـﺳ ،ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ

ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ )

ﻱﺩﻮﻌﺻ ( ﻪﻛ ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻭ

0 S<

ﻱﺮﺳ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ )

ﻲﻟﻭﺰﻧ ( ﺖﺳﺍ .

‐ ﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻲ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ

ﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻲ ﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻴ

ﮕﻧﺎ ﻴ ﺮﺳ ﻦ ﻱ ﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲ

ﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻳ ﻦ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﮐ ﺖﺳﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

ﻳ ﺒﻃ ﻂ ﻴ ﻌ ﻲ ﺑ ﻪ ﭘ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﻴ ﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﺘﺳﻮ

ﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻭ ﻲ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺑ ﺎﻫ

ﻴ ﺮﺿ ﺮﮕﻧﺎ ﻳ

ﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺐ ﻲ

ﻟﺍﻮﺘﻣ ﻲ ﺑ ﻴ ﺮﺳ ﻦ ﻱ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺎﻫ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

(Aksoy, 2007)

. ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲ ﺍ ﻳ ﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘﺎﻧ ﻥﻮﻣﺯ

ﻱ ﻪﺑ ﻡﻮﺳﻮﻣ

Run Test

ﺯ ﺡﺮﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻞﺣﺍﺮﻣ ﻪﮐ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻳ

ﺮ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ : ﻌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻴﻴ ﻣ ﻦ ﻴ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﻧﺎ ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲ

ﺯﻭﺎﺠﺗ ﻳ ﺯﻭﺎﺠﺗ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺎ

ﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻣ ﺩﺪﻋ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫ ﻴ

ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻪﻧﺎ ﺩﻮﺷ

. ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺖﻣﻼﻋ ﺎﺑ ﺭﻮﮐﺬﻣ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻭ ﺘﺧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻴ ﺭﺎ ﻱ ﻭ S

ﻩﺪﺷ ﺺﺨﺸﻣF

ﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻭ ﻴ

ﺎﺑ ﺐ

n1

ﻭ

n2

ﺑﻴ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎ ﺩﺩﺮﮔ . ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ

ﻟﺍﻮﺗ ﻞﮐ ﻲ ﻧ ﺎﻫ ﻴ ﺎﺑ ﺰ ﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ R

ﻳ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺖ

ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ )

٨ ( ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺪﺑ ﺁﻳ

ﺪ .

۸ (

( )

(n n ) (n n 1)

n n n n 2 n n 2

n 1 n

n n R 2 z

2 1 2 2 1

2 1 2 1 2 1

2 1

2 1

− + +

−

−

⎟⎟⎠

⎜⎜ ⎞

⎝

⎛ −

− +

=

ﻪﮐ ﺯﻮﺗ z

ﻳ ﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺖﺤﺗ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﻊ ﻲ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺎﻫ

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻳ

ﻧﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺮ ﻲ ﺯﻮﺗ ﻳ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﻊ

٣٢٠

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﻲﻜﻳﮊﻮﻟﻭﺭﺪﻴﻫ ﻢﻳﮊﺭ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

..

.

ﺍﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻱ

ﺡﻮﻄﺳ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺭﺍﺩ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺪﺑ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺁﻳ

ﻭ ﺪ

ﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻳ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺖ ﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺎﺑ z

ﻳ ﻧﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺮ ﻲ ﻘﻣ ﺎﻳ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺴ ﺪﻧﺩﺮﮔ . ﺮﮔﺍ

z 2

z> α/

ﻳ ﺎ

z 2

z<− α/

ﻩﺎﮕﻧﺁ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

H0

ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻮﺷ .

‐ ﺶﻬﺟ

ﻳ ﮑ ﻲ ﻏ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻡﺎﺴﻗﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻴ

ﺍﺮ ﻳ ﺎﺘﺴ ﻲﻳ ﺵﺮﭘ ﻪﮐ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻳ

ﺖﻓﺍ ﺎ

ﻧﺎﻬﮔﺎﻧ ﻲ ﺮﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻱ ﺖﻟﺎﺧﺩ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻻﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ

ﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻴ ﻢ ﻳ ﻏ ﺎ ﻴ ﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮ ﻴ ﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺸﺑ ﻢ ﻴ

ﻢﺘﺴ ﻫ ﺒﻃ ﻱﺎ ﻴ ﻌ ﻲ ﻉﻮﻗﻮﺑ

ﻲﻣ ﭘ ﻴ ﺩﺪﻧﻮ . ﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻳ ﻦ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻬﺟ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ

ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘﺎﻧ ﻱ ﺯﻮﺗ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻳ

ﻊ ﻲﻤﻛﺍﺮﺗ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ

(CUSUM)

ﻪﮐ

ﻳ ﻪﺒﺗﺭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﮏ ﺎﭘ ﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺍ

ﻳ ﺑ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﻪ ﻴ

ﻣ ﻦ ﻴ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﻭﺩ ﻪﻧﺎ

ﻏ ﻪﺑ ﮎﻮﮑﺸﻣ ﻴ

ﺍ ﺮ ﻳ ﺎﺘﺴ ﻲﻳ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ

(Chiew & McMaahon, 1993)

. ﺍ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻳ ﻦ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ

ﻤﺠﻣ ﺮﺜﮐﺍﺪﺣ ﻌﻤﺠﺗ ﻉﻮ

ﻲ ﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻳ

ﺯﺍ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺮ

ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻑﺪﻫ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫ

ﺪﻫﺩ . ﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻲ

xn

x x₁, _2,..., ﮕﺑ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ

ﻴ ﺮ ﻳ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ،ﺪ

ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ) ٩ ( ﺑ ﻴ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎ ﺩﻮﺷ :

٩ (

n 3 2 1 k x

x V

k

1 i

median i

k =

∑

sgn( − ) = , , ,...,

=

0 x for 1 x

0 x for 0 x

0 x for 1 x

<

−

=

=

=

>

= ) sgn(

) sgn(

) sgn(

ﻭ

median

ﻣ x

ﻴ ﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻪﻧﺎ ﻳ ﺮﺳ ﺮ ﻱ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ

xi

ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .

ﺯﻮﺗ ﻳ ﻊ

Vk

ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻭﺩ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻤﺳﺍ ﻑﻭﺮﮔﻮﻤﻠﮐ ﻱﺍ

ﻴ ﻑﻮﻧﺮ

)

Vk

n 2

KS=( / )max

( ﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻳ ﻧﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺮ ﻲ ﺮﺜﮐﺍﺪﺣ

Vk

ﻪﺑ

ﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻳ ﻌﺒﺗ ﺮ ﻴ ﻲﻣ ﺖ ﺪﻨﮐ :

١٠ (

n 22 1 10

0. .

= α

n 36 1 05

0. .

= α

^{α=0.01 1.63 n}

ﻔﻨﻣ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ

ﻲ

Vk

ﺑ ﻴ ﺍ ﺮﮕﻧﺎ ﻳ ﺎﻬﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﻪﮐ ﺖﺴﻨ ﻲﻳ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ

ﻣ ﻴ ﮕﻧﺎ ﻴ ﺑ ﻦ ﻴ ﺮﺘﺸ ﻱ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻲﻳ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ

ﺲﮑﻌﻟﺎﺑ .

‐ ﺯﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺵﺯﺍﺮﺑ ﻳ

ﻊ

ﺷ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻟﺎﮕﭼ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺖﺧﺎﻨ

ﻲ ﺍﺮﺑ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻱ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺮﺳ ﻱ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺩﺪﻌﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻱ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ .

ﺍﻳ ﻦ

ﺵﻭﺭ ﺮﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﻮﺗ ﻝﻭﺍﺪﺟ ﻭ ﺎﻫ ﻳ

ﻧﺍﻭﺍﺮﻓ ﻊ ﻲ ﺎﻨﺑ

ﻩﺪﺷ ﻳ ﺳﺮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺎ ﻴ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻢ ﺎﻫ ) ﺗﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺬﻏﺎﮐ ﻲ

( ﮏﻤﮐ

ﻲﻣ ﮔ ﻴ ﺪﻧﺮ . ﻳ ﮑ ﻲ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻳﺎﻫ

ﻲ ﻪﮐ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻌﺒﺗ ﺶﺠﻨﺳ ﻴ

ﺖ

ﺯﻮﺗ ﻳ ﻊ ﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﮏ ﻳ

ﺯﻮﺗ ﮏ ﻳ ﺧ ﻊ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺹﺎ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘﺎﻧ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻱ

ﻤﺳﺍ ﻑﻭﺮﮔﻮﻤﻠﮐ ﻴ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻑﻮﻧﺮ .

ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ

Dmax

ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻪﺑ ﻪﮐ ﻳ

ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﮏ ﻱﺍ

s ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻑﻭﺮﻌﻣ k.

ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ) ١١ ( ﺮﻌﺗ ﻳ ﻲﻣ ﻒ ﺩﻮﺷ .

۱۱ (

) x ( F ) x ( F sup D_max = _n −

ﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻳ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦ

) x (

ﺯﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ F

ﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻪﮐ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﻊ

ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ

) x ( F_n

ﺯﻮﺗ ﻳ ﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻊ ﻲ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ .

ﻪﻛ ﻡﺍﺩﺎﻣ

) x (

ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺳﻮﻴﭘ F Dmax

ﻪﺑ

) x (

ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑ F

.

،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ

Dmax

ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻚﻳ

ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻴ ﺯﻮﺗ ﻥﺎ ﻳ ﻊ ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲ

ﺯﻮﺗ ﻳ ﻌ ﻲ ﻪﮐ

ﺮﺘﻤﮐ ﻳ ﻦ

Dmax

ﺎﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻳ

ﺮ ﻳ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻦ ﺮﻈﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺗ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﺳﺭ

(Rezaee Pazhand, 2001)

.

ﺎﺘﻧ ﻳ ﺞ ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻲ

ﻐﺗ ﻴﻴ ﺬﭘﺮ ﻳ ﺮ ﻱ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﮏﻳﮊﻮﻟﻭﺭﺪﻴﻫ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺍ ﻪﻧﻻﺎﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻳ

ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴ ﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻩﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺮ

ﻲ

ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ۱۳۵۳ ﺎﺗ ۱۳۸۳ ﺎﻣﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻳ ﮔﺪﻨﮐﺍﺮﭘ ،ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺕﺎﺸ ﻲ

،

ﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﺵﺯﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺶﻬﺟ ﻳ

ﺯﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻦ ﻳ

ﻞﺒﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﮐ ﻊ

ﺮﺸﺗ ﻳ ﺩﺮﮔ ﺢ ﻳ ﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺪ .

ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺎﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ

ﺮﺟ ﻳ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﻥﺎ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﮐﺬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

۱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ .

ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻪﮐ ﺭﻮﻄﻧﺎﻤﻫ ﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﻴ ﮕﻧﺎ ﻴ ﺮﺟ ﻦ ﻳ ﻪﻧﻻﺎﺳ ﻥﺎ

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﻐﺘﻣ ﻩﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﮐﺬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻴ

ﺮ ﻱ ﻢﮐ ﺯﺍ )ﺍ ﻳ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴ

ﻭﺮﺳ ﺯﺮﻣ (

ﺯ ﺎﺗ ﻳ ﺩﺎ )ﺍ ﻳ ﺭﺎﺳ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴ ﻱ

ﻤﻗ ﻴ ﺶ ( ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ .

ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻪﻠﺠﻣ ،ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺰﻴﺨﺑﺁ ﻭ ﻊﺗﺮﻣ ﻪﻳﺮﺸﻧ ٦٥

ﻩﺭﺎﻤﺷ ، ٣ ﺰﻴﻳﺎﭘ ، ١٣٩١ ﻪﺤﻔﺻ ﺯﺍ ، ٣١٥

ﺎﺗ ٣٢٨

٣٢١

ﺍ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻳ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﮔﺪﻨﮐﺍﺮﭘ ﻲ ﺮﺟ ﻳ ﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻥﺎ ﻳ

ﻦ

ﻟﺩ ﻴ ﺎﺘﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﺘﺑ ﻪﮐ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻞ ﻳ

ﺪﺣ ﺎﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺞ ﻱ

ﺍﺮﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻳ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻂ

ﻪﺿﻮﺣ ﻤﻌﺗ ﺎﻫ ﻴ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻢ . ﺮﺿ ﻳ ﮕﻟﻮﭼ ﺐ ﻲ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻧ ﺎﻫ

ﻴ ﺰ

ﮐﺎﺣ ﻲ ﺸﮐ ﺯﺍ ﻴ ﮔﺪ ﻲ ﻨﺤﻨﻣ ﻲ ﻧﺍﻭﺍﺮﻓ ﻲ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﭘ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻭ ﺎﻫ

ﻟﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻲ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﺮﺷ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫ ﻳ

ﻲﻣ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﻂ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

. ﺮﺿ ﻳ ﺐ

ﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫﺩﻮﺧ ﻲ

ﺎﭘ ﹰﺎﺘﺒﺴﻧ ﻴﻳ

ﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻦ ﻳ ﺮﺟ ﺮ ﻳ ﻧ ﻥﺎ ﻴ ﺑ ﺰ ﻴ ﺮﮕﻧﺎ

ﻌﺿ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻴ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻒ ﺎﻫ ﺎﺑ ﻳ ﺪﮑ ﻳ ﺛﺎﺗ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻭ ﺮﮕ ﻴ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺮ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻠﺒﻗ ﻲ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺮﺑ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱ ﺮﺟ ﻳ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺎ . ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻲ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ۱

ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻳ ﻲﻣ ﻠﮐ ﺖﺧﺎﻨﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻲ

ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻭ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻪﺑ

ﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﻲ ﺍﺮﺷ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻳ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻂ ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲ

ﺍﺮﺷ ﻭ ﻳ ﻂ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺏﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺎﻫ

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﻌﺑ ﺕﺎﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻱ

ﺖﺳﺩ ﻳ ﺖﻓﺎ . ﺮﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ

ﺮﺿ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﻳ

ﻐﺗ ﺐ ﻴﻴ ﺍ ﺕﺍﺮ ﻳ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴ ﻐﺗ ﺭﻮﮐﺬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻴﻴ

ﺬﭘﺮ ﻳ ﺮ ﻱ

ﻄﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻲ ﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﮐ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻳ

ﻪﺿﻮﺣ ﻪﮑﻨ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻧ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻴ

ﺮﻗ ﮏﺸﺧ ﻪﻤ ﺮﻣﺍ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺍ

ﻱ ﺪﺑ ﻳ ﻬ ﻲ ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻞﮑﺷ

۲ ﻧ ﻴ ﻫ ﺰ ﻴ ﻧﺍﻭﺍﺮﻓ ﻡﺍﺮﮔﻮﺘﺴ ﻲ

ﺮﺳ ﻱ ﺍ ﻪﻧﻻﺎﺳ ﻳ ﻧﺁ ﻞﭘ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴ ﻴ

ﺍﺭ ﻥﺎ

ﺮﺳ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻱ

ﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻲ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻥﺁ ﺮﻇﺎﻨﺘﻣ ﺪﻫﺩ

. ﺭﻮﻄﻧﺎﻤﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻪﮐ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﮕﻟﻮﭼ ﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲ

ﺍﺮﺷ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻳ

ﻂ

ﻌﺒﺗ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﻴ

ﻲﻤﻧ ﺖ ﺪﻨﻨﮐ .

ﻭﺍﺮﻓ ﻡﺍﺮﮔﻮﺘﺴﻴﻫ ‐۲ ﻞﮑﺷ

ﻥﺁ ﺮﺑ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺵﺯﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺎﻣﺎﮔ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﻴﻧﺁ ﻞﭘ ﻱﺮﺳ ﻲﻧﺍ

ﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻳ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺮ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﻲ

ﭙﺳﺍ ﻴ ﺍ ﺮﻫ ﻦﻣﺮ ﻳ

ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴ

ﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻳ

ﻧﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺮ ﻲ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ

ﺭﺍﺩ ﻱ ۵ % ﺭﺩ

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ۲ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ .

ﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻳ

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺮ ﺘﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

ﻴ ﻪﺠ

ﻫ ﻪﮐ ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﻴ

ﺼﺨﺸﻣ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﭻ ﻲ

) ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﺰﺠﺑ ﻱ

ﺸﻫﺎﮐ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻲ

ﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻳ ﻮﻠﻣﺍﺮﻬﺑ ﻞﭘ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴ (

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺟ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻳ

ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﻻﺎﺳ ﻥﺎ

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﺍ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻳ

ﺎﺘﺴ ﻲﻳ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ

ﻨﻌﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲ

ﺭﺍﺩ ﻱ ﻲﻤﻧ ﺩﺭ ﻕﻮﻓ ﺩﻮﺷ

. ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺎﺘﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺍ ﻳ

ﺞ

ﻓﺍﺮﮔ ﻴ ﮑ ﻲ ﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻳ

ﺎﮑﺑﺍﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴ ﻱ

ﻞﮑﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺎﺧ ۳

ﻩﺪﻣﺁ

ﺖﺳﺍ . ﺮﺿ ﻳ ﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺐ ﻲ

ﺎﭘ ﻴﻳ ﺮﺳ ﻦ ﻱ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﮐ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺭﺩ

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ۱ ﻧ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﻴ

ﺑ ﺰ ﻴ ﻏ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺮﮕﻧﺎ ﻴ

ﻨﻌﻣ ﺮ ﻲ ﺮﺳ ﺭﺍﺩ ﻱ

ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻝﺍﺪﻨﻛ ﻦﻣ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ

ﺰﻴﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﭻﻴﻫ ﺭﺩ

ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ

ﺮﻔﺻ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ ﺩﺭ ﻲﺗﺍﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻤﻧ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻲﻟﻭﺰﻧ ﺮﻴﺳ ﺎﻓﺮﺻ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

ﺪﻳﺩﺮﮔ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻮﻠﻣﺍﺮﻬﺑ ﻞﭘ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴﻳﺍ )

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ۲ (.

ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺮﺑ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﻱﺎﻫ ۲

ﻲﻣ ﻪﮐ ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﮐ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺩﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻝﺍﺩ ﻲﻠﻴﻟﺩ ﭻﻴﻫ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﺎﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﮏﻳ ﭻﻴﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

ﻱﺭﺍﺩ

۵ % ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ .

ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﺘﺒﻟﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺎﺑ ﻕﻮﻓ

ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺮﻴﺧﺎﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫﺩﻮﺧ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻢﮐ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ۱

) ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ۱ ( ﺰﻴﻧ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﻘﺑﺎﻄﻣ

y = -0.0247x + 6.8165 R² = 0.0108

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

1353 1358 1363 لﺎﺳ 1368 1373 1378 1383

( ﻪﻴﻧﺎﺛﺮﺑﺐﻌﻜﻣﺮﺘﻣ) ﻲﺑد

ﻞﮑﺷ ٣

‐ ﻱﺎﮑﺑﺍﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴﻳﺍ ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻪﻧﻻﺎﺳ ﻱﺮﺳ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ

ﻥﺁ ﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺵﺯﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻄﺧ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻧﺎﺧ

ﻲﺑد (cms)

٣٢٢

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﻲﻜﻳﮊﻮﻟﻭﺭﺪﻴﻫ ﻢﻳﮊﺭ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

..

.

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ۲

‐ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ

ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻦﻣﺮﻴﭙﺳﺍ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﻣ ﻭ

ﻦ

‐ ﻝﺍﺪﻨﻛ

Z tau p S tcr t rs ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴﺍﻳ

١٥٣ / ٠

‐ ‐٠/٠٢٢ ۰/۸۷۸ ‐ ١٠ ٠/١٠٥ ٠/٠١٩ ﻪﻴﻣﻭﺭﺍ ﺪﻨﺑ ٦٣١

/ ٠

‐ ‐٠/٠٨٢ ٠/٥٢٨ ‐ ٣٨ ٠/٤٥٢ ٠/٠٨٤ ﻪﻧﺎﺧ ﻱﺎﮑﺑﺍﺭﺩ ٠٠٣

/ ١

‐ ‐٠/١٢٩ ٠/٣١٦ ‐ ٦٠ ١/٣٣ ٠/٢٣٦ ﺝﺰﻳﺩ

٢٠٤ / ٠

‐ ‐٠/٠٢٨ ٠/٨٣٩ ‐ ١٣ ٠/٤٥٦ ٠/٠٨٣ ﺩﺎﺑﺁ ﻢﺷﺎﻫ ٤١٣

/ ١

‐ ‐٠/١٨١ ٠/١٥٨ ‐ ٨٤ ١/٤٢ ٠/٢٥٥ ﻭﺮﺳ ﺯﺮﻣ

٩٦٩ / ٠

‐ ‐٠/١٢٥ ٠/٣٣٣ ‐ ٥٨ ٠/٨٦٩ ٠/١٥٩ ﺩﺎﺑﺁﺮﻴﻣ

١٨٧ / ٠

‐ ‐٠/٠٢٦ ٠/٨٥١ ‐ ١٢ ٠/٠٢٣ ٠/٠٠٤ ﺶﻴﻤﻗ ﻱﺭﺎﺳ ٩١٨

/ ٠

‐ ‐٠/١١٨ ٠/٣٥٩ ‐ ٥٥ ٠/٨٨٧ ٠/١٦٣ ﺩﻭﺭﺎﺑﺎﺑ ٧٥٣

/ ١

‐ ‐٠/٢٢٤ ٠/٠٨٠ ‐١٠٤ ٢/٠٨٥ ٠/٣٦١ ﻮﻠﻣﺍﺮﻬﺑ ﻞﭘ ٠٣٨

/ ١

‐ ‐٠/١٣٣ ٠/٣٠٠ ‐ ٦٢

٠٤٥ / ٢

٧٦ /

٠ ٠/١٤ ﻥﺎﻴﻧﺁ ﻞﭘ

. ﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻳ ﺮﺿ ﻢﮐ ﺮ ﻳ

ﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺐ ﻲ

ﻧ ﻴ ﺑ ﺰ ﻴ ﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﺮﮕﻧﺎ ﻲ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺎﻫ

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻔﻨﻣ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ

ﻲ

ﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﻳ

ﻏ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻮﻠﻣﺍﺮﻬﺑ ﻞﭘ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴ ﻴ

ﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﺮ ﻲ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻳ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﮐ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺭﻮﮐﺬﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴ

ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ p

۳ ﭘ ﻴ ﺶ ﺑ ﻴ ﻨ ﻲ ﺤﺻ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻴ

ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺢ

ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﺑ ﺯﺎﺠﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻴ

ﻏ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺘﺸ ﻴ

ﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﺮ ﻲ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻮﻘﺗ ﺎﻫ

ﻳ ﻲﻣ ﺖ ﺩﺩﺮﮔ . ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ۳ ﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻲ ﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻲ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ

ﻳ ﺮ ﻭ z

ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ p

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺭﺍﺩ ﻱ ۵ % ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ .

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻬﺟ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺮﺳ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺭﻮﮐﺬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﮐ ﻪﺑﺎﺸﻣ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻊﻃﺎﻘﻣ ﻫ

ﮎﻮﮑﺸﻣ ﻱﺎ

ﺪﻳﺩﺮﮔ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺶﻬﺟ ﻪﺑ .

ﻞﮑﺷ ۴ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺍ

ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻫ

ﻝﺎﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻭ ﻞﺒﻗ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺎ ۶۴

ﺪﻨﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻴﻣﻭﺭﺍ ﺪﻫﺩ

. ﻪﺑ ﻡﺯﻻ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺹﻮﺼﺧ ﺭﺩ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻻﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻛﺫ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﺪﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺏﺁ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻦﮕﻤﻫ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ .

ﺏﺎﻧﺍﻭﺭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﺒﻨﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ )

ﺎﺑ ﺎﻳ ﻥﺍﺭ

ﻑﺮﺑ ﺏﻭﺫ (

ﻩﺯﺎﺳ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ، ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﺮﻴﺴﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺖﺷﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﺍ ﻱﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻭ ﺏﺁ ﻩﺪﻨﻛﺍﺮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﺮﺛﻮﻣ ﻲﻨﮕﻤﻫﺎﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ

(Rezaee Pazhand, 2001)

. ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻪﮐ ﺭﻮﻄﻧﺎﻤﻫ ۴

ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺩﻭﺭ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﻃﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺩﻮﺑ ﮎﻮﮑﺸﻣ ﻩ ﺍ

ﺎﺑ ﻪﮐ ﺪﻧ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ

ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ

CUSUM

ﻪﺑ

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ

ﺶﻬﺟ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺭﻮﮐﺬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

.

ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺍ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ

ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺮﺜﮐﺍﺪﺣ ﻭ ﺭﻮﮐﺬﻣ

ﻞﮑﺷ ۵ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ .

ﻲﻣ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻪﮐ ﺭﻮﻄﻧﺎﻤﻫ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴﻳﺍ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﻪﮐ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺮﺘﻤﮐ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫ

ﻨﻌﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺪﻧﺎﺸﻧ ﻲ

ﻲﺑﺩ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺭﺍﺩ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻝﺎﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻭ ﻞﺒﻗ ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺶﻬﺟ ﻪﺑ ﮎﻮﮑﺸﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻱﺮﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺵﺯﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ

ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺴﻳﺍ ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﻪﻧﻻﺎﺳ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺪﻳﺩﺮﮔ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻑﻮﻧﺮﻴﻤﺳﺍ ﻑﻭﺮﮔﻮﻤﻠﮐ .

ﻦﻳﺮﺘﻤﮐ ﻪﮐ ﻲﻌﻳﺯﻮﺗ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻞﮑﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻪﮐ ﺭﻮﻄﻧﺎﻤﻫ ۲

ﻡﺍﺮﮔﻮﺘﺴﻴﻫ ﺪﺷ ﻩﺪﻳﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻲﻧﺍﻭﺍﺮﻓ ﻲﻤﻧ ﺖﻴﻌﺒﺗ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﻞﮑﺷ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫ

ﻲﺘﺴﻳﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻨﮐ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺮﺘﺒﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺮﺳ ﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺵﺯﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻫ

. ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ

ﻞﮑﺷ ﺭﺩ ﺵﺯﺍﺮﺑ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ۶

ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻳﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ

.