DIEU CHINH CHINH SACH BOI N G O ^ I CUA TRUNG QUOC SAU D ^ HOI 19 VA TAC B Q N G DOI VOl
KHU VV'C D 6 N G NAM A
Bdi Nam Khdnh* - Bui Thi Thu Hue*
Tdm tat
V&i vi?c xdc lap duoTig loi phdt trien vd doi ngoai mdi, chinh sdch ddi ngoai cua Trung Quoc sau Dai hgi dai bieu todn qudc ldn thu 19 Ddng Cgng sdn Trung Qudc se tdc ddng Idu ddi vd sdu xa tdi cue dien khu vuc vd the gi&i tren cdc mat chinh tri, an ninh, kinh te, trong cdc cdu true khu vice vd todn cdu. Bdi viet ndy phdn tich sic dieu chinh chinh sdch ddi ngoai cua Trung Qudc sau Dai hoi 19 vd ddnh gid nhimg tdc dong cua no ddi vai khu v{rc Ddng Nam A.
Tir khoa: chmh sach doi ngoai, Tnmg Qudc, Trung Quoc sau Dai hoi 19, Dong Nam A.
Chinh sach doi ngoai la bp phan cau thdnh quan frpng frong chien luoc tdng the phat trien qudc gia ciia Trang Qudc. Dudi thdi ong Tiip Can Binh, chinh sach ddi ngoai va cac boat dpng ngoai giao ciia Trung Quoc dupe thiie day theo dinh hudng "hda binh, hpp tac, cung phat trien" nhung mang tinh thuc dung cao. Viec trien khai chinh sach ddi ngoai sau Dai hgi l4n thii 18 ciia Dang Cdng san Trang Qudc (Dai hpi 18) da mang lai cho Trung Qudc nhiing ket qua quan frpng, kha quan, ddng thdi ciing xuat hien nhieu nguy ca, thach thiic. Ben canh do, bdi canh cue dien t h i gidi \k khu vuc c6 nhiing biin ddng phiic tap, khd ludng: canh tranh giiia cac nuctc ldn gia tang. Do vay, tai Dai hpi l4n thu 19 ciia Dang Cdng san Tnmg ' Thac SI, Hgc vien Ngo^i giao
" Hpc vien Cao hoc, nganh quan he quic tl Khoa 19, HQC vi?n Ngo^ti giao.
116 3/2019
Nghien cim Qudc ti sd 1 (116)
Qudc (Dai hpi 19), Trung Qudc cd nhiing diiu chinh clunh sach doi ngoai nham thich ling vdi mdi trudng ttong nude va ben ngoai, ddng thdi nang cao vi the Trung Qudc tten binh dien toan cau. La khu vuc ke can Trung Qudc, true tiep chiu anh hudng tii chinh sach ddi ngoai cua Trung Qudc, viec nghien ciiu ve nhung dieu chinh chinh sach ddi ngoai ciia Trang Qudc mpt each day du de danh gia kha nang tac dpng ddi yoi khu vuc Ddng Nam A la rat can thiet, c6 gia tti thuc tiin cao.
Nhirng dieu chinh chinh sach doi ngo^i cua Trung Qu6c sau Dai h6il9
Tai Dai hpi 19, Trung Qudc dua ra Tu tudng Tap Can Binh vao Dieu le Dang khdng chi khang dinh viec cung cd quyin luc ciia dng Tap Can Binh ttong nen chinh tri Bic Kinh ma cdn tao diiu ki|n dl xay d\mg vi the mdi cho Trung Qudc tten ttudng qudc te. Trang Qudc da budc qua giai doan diing len, giau ISn va bat dau thuc hien giai do£in m^nh len.
Quyet tam thuc hien "Giac mdng Trang Hoa" da khdng cdn la khau hieu hd hao ma da dupe xac dinh rd rang, cd Id trinh. Trong bai phat biiu khai mac Dai hpi. Tap Can Binh da tuyen bd ve khdi dau cua "ky nguyen mdi" cho Trang Qudc, vach ra cac giai doan quan trpng cho qua ttinh manh len ciia nude nay.^ Tu nay den nam 2020 la thdi ky quyet hoan thanh xay dung xa hpi kha gia toan dien (muc tieu 100 nam thu nhat), ddng thai tao dpng lire di len md ra hanh trinh mdi xay dung toan dien nha nude hien dai hda xa hpi chu nghia (muc tieu phan dau 100 nam thii hai). Qua trinh thuc hien muc tieu phan dau 100 nam thii hai dupe chia thanh hai giai doan, trong giai doan trade mat, Trung Qudc se tap trang khang dinh vai frd va quyen chii dpng d chau A tren co sd nguyen tac
"quan he qudc te hda binh". Bao cao chinh tri Dai hdi 19 cua Trang
' Th6ng tin xa Vi?t Nam, "Bao cao tai Dai hoi XIX Dang Cpng san Trung Quoc (PhSn 3)," Tdi lieu tham khdo dgc bi^t ngay 22/10/2017: 2-3.
Qudc da chi ro: "Trung Qudc kien dinh thyc hif n chinh sach ngo^i giao hda binh, ddc lap, ty chu, tdn ttpng quyen tu lira chpn con dudng phat triin ciia nhan dan cac nudc".^ Tuy nhien, Trung Qudc cimg khang dinh se: "khdng tir bd quyin lpi chinh dang cua minh, bat cii ai cung khong nen ao tudng lam cho Trung Qudc nudt qua dang lam tdn hai lpi ich ciia minh".^ Qua day, cd the thay ro, mac du each tiep can cua Trang Quflcla each tiip can hda binh, khdng can thiep cdng viec npi bd ciia cac nitoc khac va nd lire xay dirag cdng ddng chung van menh, nhung nude nay ciing nhin manh xay dung mdi quan he qudc te kieu mdi, vdi vai fro va vi thi cua Trung Quoc frong viec thiet lap va dieu khien luat choi ttong cac san choi chinh tri. Ben canh dd, Trung Qudc the hien sy ciing ran va quyit doan ttong viec bao ve cac lpi ich cdt loi cua minh, khdng the thuong lupng bSng chinh sach ngoai giao mem deo, nhu van dl Dai Loan, van de Bien Ddng va bien Hoa Ddng.
Ve CO ban, npi dung chinh sach ddi ngoai trong Bao cao chinh tri t?i Dai hpi 19 van dya tten nhirng try cot la quan he nude ldn, ngoai giao lang gieng, hpp tac vdi cac qudc gia dang phat trien, phat buy vai tro nude ldn c6 ttach nhiem va tich eye tham dy cac cdng viec qudc te. Tuy nhien, so vdi Bao cao chinh tti tai Dai hpi 18, cd mpt sd thay doi khi them ba ndi dtmg mdi (keu gpi xSy dyng cpng ddng chung van menh nhan loai; thiic day hpp tac qudc te BRI; thiic day ty do hda, tien lpi hoa thuang mai, dSu tu va thiic day toan cau hda kinh te phat trien theo hudng cang ngay cang md eiia)'' va dieu chinh hai ndi dung (khdng con phan ddi viec thudng xuyen su dyng vii luc hoac de dpa vii luc de giai
^ Thong tin xa Vi§l Nam, "Bao cao tai Dai hpi XIX Dang C^ng san Trung Quoc (Phan cu6i)," Tdi li4u tham khdo dgc biet ngay 24/10/2017: 5.
^ Thong tin xa Vi^t Nam, "Bao cao tai Dai hpi XIX D^ng Cong san Trung Quic (Phan cudi)," Tdi li^u tham khdo ddc biet ngay 24/10/2017: 5.
" Trk Vi^t Thai, "Trung Quic nam 2018: Nam d k dSy kho khan," The gidi vd Vi$
Nam, ngay 08/02/2019, http://baoquocte.vn/trung-quoc-2018-nam-dau-day-kho-khan- 86697.html.
3/2m9
Nghien cmi Qudc tisd 1 (116)
quyet franh chap ma chi diing "phan ddi liy manh hilp ySu" va chuyen tu tich eye tham gia quan tri toan cau sang "kien tri quan diem quan tri toki cau, de xudng dan ehii hda quan h? qudc tl")^. Do vay, vi^c trien khai chinh sach ddi ngoai cua Tnmg Qudc thdi gian tdi co ban van dya tten nen tang chinh sach ddi ngoai da tiiln khai sau Dai hpi 18 va cd mOt sd dieu chinh n h ^ tiep tuc phat buy cac ket qua tich cue da dsX dupe, khac phuc nhiing ban che, giai quyet tdt nhiing yeu cSu ma ttong nude va thich nghi vdi bdi canh qudc tl. Cu thi:
Thic nhdt, Trung Qudc se chu ddng ban ttong xii ly quan he vdi My v^ tang cudng anh hudng ttong quan he vdi Nga. Ttr nhiem ky diu cua ong Tap Can Binh, Tnmg Qudc da chii ddng de xuat mong mudn xay dyng "quan he nude ldn kiiu mdi" voi My, tiing budc canh franh vai frd, anh hudng \(n My tai cac khu vyc frpng diem chau A - Thai Bmh Duong, Bac Phi - Trung Ddng, EU, cd nhiing ddng thai thii phan ung cua My thdng qua cac boat ddng d Bien Ddng, biin Hoa Ddng.^ Ngay 22/02/2017, hang thdng tin Reuters dua tin Tmng Qudc gdn nhu da hoan thanh vi8c xay dyng khoang 20 cdng trinh tten cac dao nhan tao bdi lap (bat hop phap) d Bien Ddng cd the lap dat ten liia dat ddi khdng tam xa. Dpng thai nay dupe Reuters xem la phep thu dau tien cua Trang Nam Hai ddi vdi chii nhan Nha Trang, Tdng thdng Donald Trump.' Hay nhu viec Trang Qudc thu giii mpt thiSt hi lan khdng ngudi lai ciia Hai qu3n My tai
* Thong tan xa Vift Nam, "Bdo c4o t£ii D^i hpi XIX Ddng Cpng san Trung Quoc," Tdi lieu tham khdo dgc biet (Phdn cuoi) ngay 24/10/2017: 5.
* Panda, Ankit "The Trump Administration Needs a Clear South China Sea Policy," yAe Diplomat, January 24, 2017, http://thediplomat.com/2017/01/the-trump- administration-needs-a-clear-south-china-sea-poiicy/.
' Ali, Idress "Exclusive: China finishing South Chin Sea buildings that could house missiles U.S. officials," Reuters, February, 21, 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-usa-southchmasea-exclusive-
idUSKBN16]029.
vung biin qudc tl d Bien Ddng vao ngay 15/12/2016;^ viec tang cuong sd lupng tau chiin cua Ham dpi Nam Hai^ va cac boat dpng cua liic lupng hai canh... dupe cac chuyen gia danh gia la "Trung Qudc dang lang le thyc hien cac budc di tao bao han niia de ciing cd quyen kiim soat quan su tten Biin Ddng va thii phan ung cua chinh quyin Tramp".'"
Trang Qudc chii ddng thuc hien cac phep thu nay do sau Dai hpi 19 cua Trang Qudc, dng Tap Can Binh da khang dinh dupe vi tbS khi budc vao nhiem ky Tdng Bi thu, Chii tich nude "khdng gidi han nhiem ky", cd thai gian dl tap trung cho ddi ngoai, hien thyc hda cac tham vpng cua minh thi Tdng thing My Donald Trump budc vao nbi^m ky dku tien vdi day nhiing thach thiic trong vin dl ddi npi can xir ly. Chinh vi vay, Trung Qudc se c6 sy ehii dpng nhieu hon ttong dieu tiet, xu ly quan he vdi My cung nhu thyc thi, triin khai cac chinh sach cua minh. Tuy nhien, dng Tap Can Binh
^ An Binh, "Trung Quoc dung vi^ thu giU tau l^n cua My 6 Bien Dong de "thii" ong Trump?," Ddn Tri, ngdy 17/12/2016, https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/trung-quoc-dung- vu-thu-giu-tau-lan-cua-my-o-bien-dong-de-thu-ong-trump-20161217150041042.htm.
' Ham dpi Nam Hai la hai quan Chien khu mien Nam Quan dpi Giai phong Nhan dSn Trung Quoc. Ddy la h^m dpi ldn nhdt trong ba ham dpi ciia hai quan Tnmg Quic (ciing vai Ham dpi Bac Hdi va Ham dpi Dong Hai). Phan Ion cdc tau noi cua h^m dpi ndy dong cf can cii hdi quan Tram Giang, c6n cac tau ngim dong & can cu tdu ng^m Hii Nam. Ngoai ra, cac tdu thupc ham dpi nay con dong a Quang Chau, Hai Khau, San Dau, Ma VT vd Bdc Hai, con cac can cii khong quan ciia hdi quan nam a L3ng Thuy, Hdi Khau, Tam A, Tram Giang, vd Qui Binh. Lire lupng ham dpi nay dirge chia lam 6 khu tac chiin, ph6ng diu, v6i can cii tai Tram Giang, Bdc Hdi, Qu$n Hoang Phi 6 Quang Chau, San Ddu, Hai Khduva Hoang Sa. Tu nam 2005, sau cupc khiing hoang eo bi6n Ddi Loan, trpng tdm chien lupe cua Trung Quic bdt diu dich chuyen tii Ddi Loan sang cac yeu sdch lanh tho 6 Bien Dong, H^m dpi Nam Hai da dirpc tap trung ddu tu hi?n d^i h6a. Theo mpt so nguIn th6ng tin, ham d§i ndy c6 khoang 22 tdu ng^m, trong so do la todn bp l\rc lupng tau ngdm nguyen tu chiin luge cua Trung Quic voi bon chile hang 094 Jm; khoang 120 chiec tdu chien (Khurana, Gurpreet Singh, "South Sea Fleet: Emerging Lynchpin of China's Naval Power Projection in the Indo-Pacific,"
National Maritime Foundation, February, 10, 20!6, http://maritimeindia.org/View%20Profile/635906647485261561.pdf).
'" Hoai Nam, "Biln Dong 2017: Trung Quic l^n tcri quan sir, lam thay dii cue dian tren bign," Bdo di^n tu To qudc, ngay 21/12/2017, http://toquoc.vn/bien-dong-20l7-trung- quoc-lan-toi-quan-su-lam-thay-doi-cuc-dien-tren-bien-99184011 .htm
120 3/2019
Nghien cim Qudc tisd 1 (116)
se duy tri each tiep c ^ mem deo bang viec ed gang ttanh nhiing cang thing ddi dau, thay vao dd la sy duy tri ttao ddi giiia hai ben. Mpt dieu chae chan rang dng Tap Can Binh khdng mudn mdt mdi quan he khd khan va khdng dn dinh ddi vdi My ttong thdi gian nay.''
Ddi vdi Nga, khi ma Nga van chua giai quyet dupe khd khan sau suy thoai kinh te, chua cai thien dupe quan he vdi My, EU va can sy hau thuan ciia Bac Kinh thi se tao co hdi cho Trung Qudc chiem the chii dpng, tang cudng anh hudng ttong quan be vdi Nga.^^ Theo cac nha phan tich, vai ttd ciia Nga ttong dai chiin luoc cua Tnmg Qudc co le khdng phai la ngudi "xach giao" cho Bac Kinh, vi Nga cung la mdt nude ldn day tu tdn dan tpc, tiing la sieu cudng thdi Chien ttanh Lanh, se khdng bao gid chap nhan mpt kich ban nhu vay. Kich ban kha di la hai ben lam ddi tac ngang hang ttong mdt chien lupe chung hudng tdi xac lap lai ttat tu the gidi. Theo dd, Tnmg Qudc se tap tnmg viec md rpng md hinh diuong mai ra toan cau, cdn Nga se cung cd siic manh ciia minh d vung A - Au, ddng vai ttd la mdt luc lupng manh tao dn dinh cho khu vyc va thuc hien cac chinh sach tao khdng gian dia chinh tri can thiet cho cac lpi ich ciia Nga va Trung Qudc.^^ Theo dd, Trung Qudc se cd sy ung hp cua Nga d Trung A mang lai nhiiu lpi thi nhu: vdi anh hudng va kiln thiic Nga vl khu vuc giiip giam cac rui ro va ttd ngai ddi vdi cac du an BRI, giam chi phi va tang lpi ich cho Trung Qudc; viec Nga chap nhan de Trang Qudc can dy vao Trung A se tao diiu kien cho Trung Quoc ddng vai ttd true tiip ttong viec bao dam an ninh d day, ngan ngua tdc ngudi
" Bui Diic Khanh, "C^nh tranh chiin lupc giua Trung Quoc va My tai khu vuc," Tgp chi Cgng sdn, ngay 7/9/2018, http://www.tapchicongsan.org.vii/home/the-gioi-van-de- su-kien/2018/52194/canh-tranh-chien-luoc-giua-trung-quoc-va-my-tai-khu-vue.aspx '^ Huong Tra (gt), "Danh gid siic manh quan he Trung-Nga," Nghien cmi Biin Dong, ngay 14/6/2018, http://nghiencuubiendong.vn/tm-quoc-te-tong-hop/6981-anh-gia-sc- mnh-quan-h-trung-nga.
'^ Tnmg Hilu, "Quan he song con dac biet giiia Nga vd Trung Quoc," Bdo dien tit Ddi tiing noi Vi^t Nam, ngay 25/01/2019, https://vov.vn/the-gioi/ho-so/quan-he-song-con- dac-biet-giua-nga-va-trung-quoc-722960.vov.
Duy Ngd Nhl hinh thanh cac can eii tai day de chdng lai chinh quyen Trung Quoc; md hmh quan he nay cd tiem nang hinh thanh khdng gian dia chinh tri nam dudi sy anh hudng rieng cua Nga va Trung Quic, ngoai tim vdi cua EU va My. Cdn ddi vdi Nga, quan he vdi Trung Quoc cho phep hp ban ehl cac ddn tning phat kinh tl tii EU va My, tim kiim cac thi tmdng thay thi, md ra loi di mdi cho kinh te Nga. Viec tich hop EEU vdi BRI ed thi mang lai cho EEU mdt kenh thuang mai mdi d^
thiic diy chien lupe "hudng ddng", giiip Nga tiep can cac thi ttudng 6 chau A - Thai Binh Duang.
Thic hai, lay lai anh hudng d Trieu Tien, tang rang bupc ttong quan he vdi Nhat Ban, Han Qudc va tiep tuc quang ba hinh anh nude ldn co trach nhiem, md rdng vong kiem soat ra toan Ddng Nam A. X6t v8 dia chinh tri, ban dao Trieu Tien la mdt khu vuc dac biet quan ttpng ddi voi an ninh cua Trung Qudc va la "ddng minh" duy nhat cua Trang Quoc ttong khu vuc Dong A. Tuy nhien, su chi phdi ciia Trang Qudc doi voi Trieu Tien hi suy giam nhieu tii khi nha lanh dao Kim Jong Un len nim quySn, khiin cho Bac Kinh ludn bi dpng va phai chiu siic ep ldn hon tit My. Do vay, mpt mat Trung Qudc se tim each can thiep vao tinh hmh chinh tri, ndi bd cua Bac Trieu Tien thdng qua ttao ddi ve chinh tti, quan he hai dang, duy tri vien frp kinh te, cac boat ddng bien mau de thu hut va xu ly quan he vdi My (Theo nhan dinh cua Tdng thdng Trump thi 93% lupng hang hda cua Triiu Tien din tii Trang Qudc).''' Do vay, Trang Qudc se kien tri nguyen tic ba khdng frong xu van de Trieu Tien (khdng hat nhan, khdng mat dn dinh va khong chiin ttanh) va liy cd de yeu ciu My, Han Qudc ngimg triin khai THAAD, giam bdt tap h^n quan sy.'^ Trong bdi canh cupc chiin thuang mai My - Trang Qudc leo
'•* Pham Hodng Son, "Thupng dinh My - Tnlu: Canh bac cua Trung Quic?," Nghien ciht quoc ti, ngay 02/3/2019, http://nghiencuuquocte.org/2019/03/02/thuong-dinh-my- trieu-canh-bac-cua-trung-quoc/.
'^ Huong Lan (gt), "Phdn ling ciia Trung Quic dii voi viec triin khai THAAD: The luang nan ciia Han Quic," Nghien cuu Bien Dong, ngdy 09/5/2017,
122 3/2dl9
Nghien cim Qudc ti sd 1 (116)
thang va kit qua cupc gap Thupng dinh My - Triiu lin 2 tai Ha Ndi viia qua, Trung Qudc cd thi sir dung la bai "anh hudng vdi Trieu Tien" de mac ca nham sdm dat dupe thda thuan vdi My trong van de thuang mai.'^ Ddi vdi Han Qudc, Tmng Qudc se ndi lai quan he kinh te, thuang mai da bi tam ngung," tiip tuc su dyng quan he hpp tac kinh te, thuang mai de cai thien quan he, tang sy rang budc cua Han Qudc, tu do tao the chu dpng, gay siic ep ddi vdi Han Qudc, dam bao lpi ich ciia Trung Qudc.'^ Ddi vdi Nhat Ban, Trang Qudc se tim each cai thien mdi quan he vdi Tokyo,'^ nhat la ttong bdi canh cupc chien ttanh thuang mai My -
http://nghiencuubiendong.vn/nghien-cuu-dong-bac-a/6536-phan-ung-cua-trung-quoc- doi-voi-thaad-tinh-the-luong-nau-cua-han-quoc.
•* Pham Hodng Son, tldd.
" Hdn Quic va Trung Quic chinh thiic thiit lap quan he ngoai giao vdo nam 1992. Vai Ipi thi gin giii vl dia ly, quan hp thuang mai giua Hdn Quic va Trung Quoc da phdt triin VU0 bac, co thai ky kim ngach thuang mai len tai 300 ty USD/nam, dua Bac Kinh tro thanh dli tac diuong mai 16n nhdt cua Seoul. Tuy nhian, moi quan he ndy hkngb bi xSu di nghiem trpng sau khi chinh quyen cuu Tong thong Park Geun-hye quyet dinh triin khai THAAD tren lanh thi Han Quic (thdng 7/2016). Du Seoul Iu5n khdng dinh viec triin khai THAAD la nhdm dli pho vai ehuong trinh ten lua vd hat nhdn ciia Trieu Tien, song Bdc Kinh lai coi day la mii de doa doi vai an ninh quic gia. Nhiing don trd dua kinh tl khong chinh thiic ciia Trung Quic, nhu cam xudt khiu hay cdm du lich, gay ra nhung thiet hai khong nho dli ven cd hai nu6c, trong do u6c tuih GDP ciia Han Quoc bi sut gidm tdi 6.500 ty won (khoang 5,98 ty USD).
'^ Qua thoa thudn, Hdn Quic vd Trung Quic di din su ding thuan vl "3 khong" (khong triin khai them THAAD, khSng tham gia vao hp thing phong thuten liia ciia My, khong thi^c hien lien minh quan su Han - My - Nhat), cung nhu nhat tri dua quan he song phuang "tro lai quy dao binh thuang". Ngpc Ha, "Chang duang moi cho quan he Tnmg - Hdn," Tin tire, ngay 17/12/2017, https://baotintuc.vn/the-gioi/chang-duong- moi-cho-quan-he-trung-han-20171217084034169.htm.
" M6i quan he Tnmg Quic va Nhdt Ban tii lau bi can tra bed tdn du chien tranh vd tranh chip lanh thi tai biln Hoa Dong. Hai qu6c gia ch?m Iran vao nam 2012 khi Nh^t Bdn vd Trung Quic ciing tuyen bl chii quyen mpt phin cua qudn ddo Senkaku/Dieu Ngu tJii viing biln nay. Moi quan hp cdng xiu di vao nam 2013 sau chuyen tham gay hanh cai ciia ong Abe din din Yasukuni, Tokyo, nhdn dip tuang nhcr 2,5 tripu ngudi Nh^t thipt mang vi chiin tranh, trong do co 14 tpi pham hi ket tpi trong The chien II. Dong thdi khiin cdc quan chuc Trung Quic mieu td ong Abe Id "nguoi khong dupe hoan nghSnh".
Trung leo thang va nhiing siic ep tii chinh My - ddng minh quan frpng nhit eiia Nhat Ban tu khi Tdng thdng Donald Trump len nim quyln.^"-^'
Lai dung bdi canh mpt so nude ASEAN dang cd nhiing vin dl n|i bd cin tap tiimg giai quyit nhu dn dinh chinh tri, ngan ngCra xung dgt (Cam-pu-chia, Mi-an-ma, Thai Lan); phdng, chdng khung bd (Phi-lip- pin, Thai Lan)... Trung Qudc da diy manh chinh sach "chia dl tri",^^ loi dung cac khoan dau tu, vien frp de mua chupc, tao dupe sy phan hoa frong ASEAN, nhit la ttong vin dl Biln Ddng. Vien ttp va siic anh hudng ngay cang to ldn cua Trung Qudc ddi vdi Ddng Nam A lam tang tinh phy thupc cua cac nude frong khu vyc vao Trang Qudc. Day chinh la CO hdi va chieu bai ma Trung Qudc ed the su dung de khdng che, ep bupc cac nude phai phuc vu myc dich chinh tri va lpi ich kinh te ciia minh. Trang Qudc ra siic sir dung con b^i kinh tl: hao phdng vi8n tro, cho vay, hd frp xay dyng co sd ha ting, mdi chao nhiing lpi ich kinh te...
khiin mdt sd nude trong khu vyc (dien hinh la Cam-pu-chia) ludn chao ddn, ung hd Trang Qudc. Trong khi do, cac nude nhu Phi-lip-pin, In-d6- ne-xi-a, Viet Nam... deu cho rang, muc tieu xuyen sudt ttong chien lupc cua Trang Qudc xua nay vin la khang dinh vi tri ba quyen va tao pham vi anh hudng cua nude ldn ba chii bao triim khu vyc. Dieu nay tao ra su bit ddng quan diim, gay chia re giiia cac nude ttong khu vyc, pha hoai
^^ Issaky, Harada, Oki, Nagai and Shunsuke, Shigeta, "Xi and Abe use economy as binding force but hold back on security," Asian Review, October 27, 2018, https://asia.nikkei.com/Pohtics/Intemational-relations/Xi-and-Abe-use-economy-as- bindmg-force-but-hold-back-on-security.
^' Huong Ly, "Nhat Ban va the giang co giiia hai sieu cuong My - Trung," Zing.vn, ngdy 27/10/2018, https://news.zing.vn/nhat-ban-va-the-giang-co-giua-hai-sieu-cuong- my-trung-post887484 .html.
^^ Tang, Siew Mun, "China's dangerous divide and conquer game with ASEAN,"
Today, April 26, 2016, https://www,todayonline.com/world/asia/chinas-dangerous- divide-and-conquer-game-asean.
124 3/2019
Nghien cuv Qudc ti sd 1 (116)
su doan kit - siic manh anh hudng ciia ASEAN.^^ Tmdc nhiing hanh dpng cua Trung Qudc, nhiiu thanh vien ASEAN uu tien md rpng hpp tac vdi Trang Qudc da lam quan he Trung Qudc - ASEAN thay ddi theo chieu hudng cd loi cho Trung Qudc. Diiu nay da tao thuan lpi cho Trang Qudc tien hanh cac boat dpng fren bien va tri hoan, keo dai viec dam phan, ky kit Bp quy tic ung xii d Biln Dong (COC).
Thic ba, uu tien thiic day tiiuc hien BRI. Chinh thiic ttd thanh chinh sach qudc gia cua Trang Qudc tir th^ng 11/2013,^'' BRI dupe coi nhu diia con tinh than va la mpt phan chinh sach ddi ngoai quan ttpng frong nhiem ky diu ciia dng Tap Can Bhib, thi hien khat vpng thay ddi vi thi cua Trung Qudc bang quan he kinh tl va ngoai giao. BRI khdng chi giiip Trung Qudc go bd khd khan, vudng mac ttong quan he vdi cac qudc gia lang gieng, ma cdn dupe xem nhu sy dap fra, ddi ttpng vdi chinh sach xoay truc/tai can bang cua My. Nhd dd, Trung Qudc cd thi kiim soat duac chau A, bien chau A thanh khu vuc anh hudng, tao mdi tradng xung quanh thuan lpi cho sy phat trien cua dat nude, han che sy tham nhap anh hudng cua cac cudng quoc khac vao khu vyc nay. BRI da dupe trien khai budc dau, dat duac nhiing ket qua kha quan nhung van edn nhieu khd khan, tac ddng tieu cue den trien vpng thdi gian tdi. Tai Dai hpi 19, BRI dupe bd sung vao Dieu le sua ddi cua Dang Cdng san Tnmg Qudc chiing td vi tri, vai ttd quan frpng cua BRI trong cac chinh sach ciia Tnmg Qudc thdi gian tdi.^^ Trong nhiem ky thii hai cua minh, dng Tap Can Bmh se tiep tuc day manh viec thuc hien BRI nhim thiet lap cho Bac Kinh con duong de md rdng lien ket kinh te va chinh tri vdi phan cdn lai cua the
^^ Dinh C6ng Tudn, "Dieu chinh chinh sdch doi ngo^i ciia Trung Quoc hien nay," Vdn hoa Nghe An. ngdy 17/7/2015, http://vanhoanghean.com.vn/chuyen-muc-goc-nhin-van- hoa/nhin-ra-the-gioi/dieu-chinh-chinh-sach-doi-ngoai-cua-trung-quoc-hien-nay.
^•* Nghi quyit Trung uong 3 khoa 18 ciia Dang Cpng san Tmng Quoc vai ten goi ban ddu Id Sdng kien "Mot vdnh dai, mpt con duong".
^ Ph^m Sy Thanh, "Vdnh dai, Con duang sau Dai h§i 19," The gidi vd Viet Nam, ngay 01/12/2017, http:/^aoquocte.vn/vanh-dai-con-duong-sau-dal-hoi-19-61717.html.
gidi. Nhd do hinh thanh mdt he tiidng quan he qudc te mdi do Trung Q\itz nim giii vai ttd chii dao, ddi ttpng vdi My va phuang Tay, dua cac quic gia vao quy dao chi phdi ciia Trung Qudc ca ve kinh te va chinh tri.
Thic tu, thi hien vai ttd nude ldn ttong dan dat, tao dyng luat choi 6 cac CO che da phuong va cac van d6 toan cau. Sudt frong qua ttinh phk ttiln cua minh, Tmng Qudc dupe xem la ngudi di theo, hudng lpi tii h?
thdng toan cau, sy ddng gdp cua Trung Qudc cho he thdng nay gSn nhu khdng cd. Nhung dudi thdi dng Tap Can Binh, Trang Qudc da cd nhung dieu chmh. Thay vi dau ttanh ddi siia ddi nguyen tac boat ddng ciia nhimg the che qudc te dang tdn tai hien nay, Tnmg Qudc da tao ra nhimg dien dan, the che mdi, mang tinh da phuang vdi trung tam duoc dat tai Trang Qudc. Ben canh do, Trang Qudc ciing dang nd lye chiing td nang lye cudng qudc bang viec the chan, lap khoang frong ma My de lai trong cac van de toan cau nhu thiic day toan cau hda va chdng bien doi khi hau. Trong bdi canh My va Anh de cao chu nghia bao hd, chdng toan cau hda, Trang Qudc da cd dupe thdi co vd ciing thuan lpi nhim tuyen trayen lap tradng ung hp tu do thuang mai va toan ciu hda cua nude nay. Trong thdi gian tdi, nude nay ciing se tiep tuc the hien vi the nhu mdt nha lanh dao toan cau hda, san sang ttd thanh mdt yiu td chinh gop phin giii dn dinh nin kinh tl thi gidi va di diu frong bao vS ty do thucmg mai. Tai Dai hpi 19, Trang Qudc da khang dinh: "Ung hp ca ehl thuang mai da phuang, thuc day khu vyc thuang mai ty do, thuc diy xay dung kinh te the gidi theo md hinh md ciia".^** Ddng thdi, Tnmg Qudc se diing len nhu mpt nha lanh dao mdi, ganh vac trach nhiem lien kit cac quoc gia de giai quyit cac van dl toan ciu, nhim nang cao hinh anh va vi thg cua minh: "... kien tri than thien vdi mdi tradng, hop tac ung pho biSn ddi khi hau, bao ve mai nha chung ttai dit ma ca nhan loai sinh tin...",
"Trang Qudc keu gpi nhan dan cac nude chung sue chung long, xay
" Thong tin xd Vipt Nam, "Bdo cao tai D^i hpi XIX Ddng Cong sdn Trung Quic (Phan cuoi)," Tdi lieu tham khdo dgc biet ngay 24/10/2017: 6,
3/2019
Nghien cim Qudc tisd 1 (116)
dung cdng dpng cung chung van menh nhan loai, xay dyng the gidi hda bmh lau dai, an ninh rpng khip, ciing phon vinh, md ciia bao tnim, sach se tuoi dep".^''
Thic ndm, thiic day nhieu ban cac yeu sach ve chu quyen d Bien Ddng va bien Hoa Ddng qua cac chinh sach ciing ran, khdng nhan nhupng. Sau Dai h0i 18, Tmng Qudc da tiin hanh mpt loat boat ddng ngoai giao, phap ly, thyc dia de khang dinh "chii quyen" cua minh tai Bien Ddng va bien Hoa Ddng. Tir viec tang cudng tau tuan fra, dan su, kiem ngu thanh lap Vung nhan dien phdng khdng - ADIZ d biln Hoa Ddng din cai tao, bdi dap, xay dyng dao nhan tao frai phep, xay dung cac ca sd quan sy, dan sy... d Bien Ddng, Trang Qudc da tao co sd cho viec kiem soat va chd diing vimg chae d bien Hoa Ddng va Bien Ddng. Trong Bao cao chinh tri tai Dai hpi 19, Trung Qudc danh gia: "viec xay dung cac dao, da d Bien Ddng dupe tich eye thuc day"^^ va tiep tyc khang dinh quyet tam day nhanh xay dung cudng qudc bien, ket hpp phat trien tdng the luc dia va fren biln. De hoan thanh myc tiSu xay dyng cudng qudc bien, Trang Qudc bang mpi each phai gianh dupe quyen kiem soat d bien Hoa Ddng va Bien Ddng ma hp ddi yeu sach "chu quyen". Vi the, Trung Qudc se tim each cung cd loi the hien tai cua minh va tri hoan bat ky thda thuan ngoai giao nao can ttd hp ttong tuong lai.
Thu sdu. Cling ran hon ttong van de lien quan den Dai Loan, quyet tam thyc hien muc tieu thdng nhit dit nude. Thdi gian qua, Trung Qudc vin duy tri quan diim phan ddi Dai Loan ddc lap, tuan thu "nhan thiic chung nam 1992", thuc diy giao luu hpp tac, md rdng giao luu van hda, taig cudng tinh cam giiia nhan dan hai bd, hudng tdi hoan thanh su
" Thong tin xa Viet Nam, "Bdo cdo tai Dai hpi XIX Ddng Cong san Trung Quic (Phitn culi)," Tdi lieu tham khdo dgc biet ngay 24/10/2017: 5.
^^ Dai tiing noi Viet Nam, "Nhdn di$n Trung Quoc qua Bdo cao chinh tri trinh bdy tai Dai hpi 19," Bdo dien tu Dai tiing noi Viet Nam. ngay 26/10/2017, https://vov.vn/the- gioi/ho-so/nhan-dien-trung-quoc-qua-bao-cao-chinh-tri-trinh-bay-tai-dai-hoi-19- 687472.V0V.
nghiep thdng nhat dat nude. Tuy nhien, ttong bdi canh lan sdng ly khai dang len cao va nhiing hoat dpng ngoai giao, tang cudng quan sy gin day cua Dai Loan, Trung Qudc se cd nhung bien phap ciing rin hon. Trong Bao cao chinh tri tai Dai hpi 19, Trung Qudc da khang dinh: "Giai quyl van de Dai Loan, thyc hien thdng nhat hoan toan Td qudc, la nguyen vpng chung cua toan the con em Trung Hoa, la lpi ich can ban ciia dm tpc Trang Hoa. Can tiep tuc kien tri phuang cham "hda binh thing nhSt, mot nude hai che dp", thuc day quan he hai bd phat ttien hda binh, thuc day tien trinh hda binh thdng nhat Td qudc"^^ va nhan manh: 'Tnmg Qudc kien quyet giii gin chu quyen va toan v?n lanh thd qudc gia, quy^t khdng cho phep tai dien bi kich lich sii dat nude bi chia re. Tdt ca moi boat ddng chia re td qudc deu chae chan se hi toan the nhan dan Trung Qudc kien quyet phan ddi. Chiing ta cd y chi kien dinh, ttan diy nilm tin, cd du nang lye danh bai am muu ly khai ciia the luc "Dai Loan doc lap"
dudi bat cii hinh thiic nao" va "quyet khdng cho phep bit cii ai, bit cii t6 chiic, bat cii chmh dang nao chia tach lanh thd Trung Qudc vao bit cii liic nao, dudi bat ky hinh thiic nao".^° Ddng thdi, Trang Qudc ciing xac dinh thdi diem thu hdi Dai Loan la trude nam 2049 - thdi diim hoan thanh muc tieu 100 nam thii hai, khi khang dinh "thdng nhit hoan toan dit nu6c \i yeu ciu tit yiu thuc hien phuc hung vi dai dan tpc Trung Hoa".^'
Qua phan tich d tten va theo ddi dpng thai triin khai chinh sach dli ngoai cua Trang Qudc tu sau Dai hdi 19 din nay, cd thi danh gia so bg chinh sach ddi ngoai Trang Qudc thdi gian tdi se thi hien su dn dinh va lien tuc so vdi giai doan trade nhung mang diy tinh chu ddng, quySt doan, tao bao, quyit liet ket hpp vdi tiiye dung, linh boat. Trang CJulc sii dung siic manh tdng hop qudc gia ttong thyc thi chinh sach ddi ngoai,
^' Dai tiing noi Vipt Nam, tldd.
^^ Ddi tiing noi Viet Nam, tldd.
^' Thong tan xa Viet Nam, "Bao cdo tai D^ii hoi XIX Dang Cpng san Trung Quic (Ph&i cuoi)," Tdi lieu tham khdo dgc biet ngdy 24/10/2017: 12.
128 3/2m
Nghien cihi Qudc ti sd 1 (116)
ket hop va dung siic manh kinh tl va quan sy tin phuang tien de trien khai cac boat ddng ngoai giao.
Tac dpng tir dieu chinh chinh sach doi ngoai cua Trung Quoc dli vol khu vyc Dong Nam A
Vdi vi tri dia chien lupc quan ttpng cua minh, Ddng Nam A ttd thanh trung tam cho viec trien khai chinh sach ddi ngoai cua cac nude ldn. Ddi vdi Trang Qudc, Ddng Nam chdu A la hudng banh tradng cd trayen ttong lich su va la khu vyc ma tii lau Tmng Qudc ludn mudn thdn tinh.^^ Chu tich Mao Trach Ddng da khang dinh frong cudc hpp cua Bp Chinh tri Ban chap hanh Trang uong Dang cpng san Tnmg Qudc, thang 8/1965: "Chiing ta phai gianh cho dupe Ddng Nam chau A, bao gdm ca mien nam Viet Nam, Thai Lan, Mien Dien, Ma-lai-xi-a va Xinh-ga-po...
Mpt vung nhu Ddng Nam chau A rat giau, d day cd nhieu khoang san...
xiing dang vdi su tdn kem can thiet de chiem lay. Sau khi gianh dupe Ddng Nam chau A, chung ta cd the tang cudng dupe siic manh ciia chting ta d vung nay, liic dd chiing ta se ed siic manh duong dau vdi khdi Lien Xd - Ddng Au, gid Ddng se thdi bat gid Tay...".^^ Phat trien quan he vdi cac nude Ddng Nam A vura giiip Trung Qudc tim kiem ngudn nguyen, nhien lieu dap ling nhu cau san xuat frong nude, vira la thi trudng tiem nang ddi vdi nen kinh te ldn thii hai the gidi nay. Dong thdi, th6ng qua hpp tac kinh te vdi cac nude Ddng Nam A de gia tang anh hudng, canh franh vdi My, ciing cd an ninh d phia Nam. Dae biet, Trang Qudc mudn su dung siic manh mem de chi phdi Ddng Nam A, khu vyc quan frpng hang dau ttong viec pha the bao vay cua My ddi vdi Trang
'^ Sif that vi quan he Viet Nam - Trung Quoc trong 30 ndm qua (Ha Npi: Nhd xudt bdn SuthJit, 1979): 15.
^^ Nhd xudt bdn Su thdt, tldd: 20.
Qudc, md dudng tien len vi the sieu cudng ttong tuang lai.^'* Do vay, Ddng Nam A cd vi tri quan ttpng va chiu nhiSu tac dpng tir chmh sach ddi ngoai cua Trung Qudc. Nhung dieu chinh chinh sach ctia Trung Qudc sau Dai hpi 19 se mang Igi nhung tac ddng tich eye va tieu cue hen nhiSu ITnh vuc ddi vdi khu vuc Ddng Nam A nhu:
Trong linh vifc kinh te vd dau tu
Thdi gian tdi, Trung Qudc se tich eye gia tang anh hudng tai khu vuc Dong Nam A thdng qua cac boat ddng hpp tac kinh te va dau tu. Cac ngudn vdn, dy an dau tu tu Trung Quoc se giup khu vyc Ddng Nam A co them ngudn lye de phat ttien, tiep can cac cdng nghe tien tiSn ban. Vi?c Trung Qudc day manh quang ba hinh anh, nang cao vi thi, vai tto cua Trung Qudc tren tradng qudc te thdng qua nhiing sang kien hpp tac kinh th mdi se giup hinh thanh nhiing lien ket kinh te mdi d khu vyc cung nhu toan cau. Khdng nhiing vSy, cac nude Ddng Nam A la mot mit xich quan ttpng trong BRI va chien lupc tang cudng dSu tu ra nude ngoai cua Trung Qudc. Ciing vdi viec ttien khai BRI, la dip dl cac qudc gia ttong khu vyc Ddng Nam A tan dung ngudn v6n diu tu ciia Trang Quic dg phat tiien ca sd ha ting, kinh tl dit nude. Ddng thdi, viec Trung Qu6c day manh dau tu vao cac nude khac, keo theo ngudn vdn cgnh franh voi Trung Qudc tu cdc cudng qudc khac vao Ddng Nam A. Qua dd, thuc d§y kmh te frong khu vyc, gdp phin cho Ddng Nam A tang cudng gin \k vdi cac ddi tac eu, md ra ca hpi ttong tim kiim cac kha nang hpp tac, gia tang cac ddi tac mdi, tu do din thoat khdi sy phy thupc vl kinh tl vdi Trang Qudc. Ben c ^ dd, khi Trung Qudc thi hien quyet tam vuon len, khang dinh vi thi ciia minh se gap phai su kiim chi ciia cac nude, nhit la
^* Ho Quoc Phu, "Chinh sach doi vai Dong Nam A cua Trung Quoc vd didch thiic d6i vai Vi^t Nam," Ly lugn chinh tri, ngay 13/3/2011, http://lyluanchinhtri,vn/home/index.php/quoc-te/item/1897-chinh-sach-doi-voi-dong-.'- nam-a-cua-trung-quoc-va-thach-thuc-doi-voi-viet-nam.html.
130 s/2m
Nghien cim Quoc ti sd 1 (116)
My - ddi thu canh ttanh toan ciu cua Trang Qudc va Nhat Ban - ddi thu canh ttanh d khu vyc.
Tuy nhien, viec Tnmg Qudc tang cudng hoat dpng ngoai giao kinh te, keu gpi cac nude ASEAN tham gia cac sang kiln. Hen ket kinh te se lam tang su phu thupc ciia cac nude nay vdi Trung Qudc ve kinh te.
Trung Qudc tiep tyc day manh khai thac quan he kinh tl, thda thuan hpp tac de thu mua nguyen lieu thd, tai nguyen... vdi gia re tii cac nude ttong khu vyc va xuat khau frd lai cac san pham da qua chi biln, chS tao, day cac nude khu vuc vao the nhap sieu ngay cang tang. Ben canh dd, dau tu true tiep tu Trung Qudc chua ddng vai trd quan frpng d ASEAN. Theo sd lieu tu Bp Thuang mai Trung Qudc, nam 2013, Trung Qudc chi ddng gdp 2,3% tdng ddng dau tu true tiep nude ngoai (FDI) vao ASEAN va ddng vdn FDI ciing it cd tuong quan vdi mau dich cua Trung Qudc vdi ASEAN; cac nude ASEAN ddng gdp 10,7% tdng mau dich cua Trung Qudc nhung FDI cua Trang Qudc vao cac nude nay chi chiem 6,7 % (35,7 ty USD ) tdng vdn FDI cua Trang Qudc ra nude ngoai (khdng tinh den dau tu tu Hdng Kong); thuang mai giiia cac nude ASEAN vdi Trung Qudc da chuyen tu thang du sang tham but vdi miic 45 ty USD vao nam 2013.^^ Cac du an dau tu se nham vao cac ITnh vyc quan ttpng nhu ca sd ha ting, giao thdng... nhung thudng bi dpi vdn, cham tien dp day cac nude Ddng Nam A vao thi bi ddng, phy thupc Trung Qudc. Han nua, cac doanh nghiep, nha dau tu Trang Qudc cd the lpi dung qua trinh hpp tac dl dua cdng nghe lac h?u d Trang Qudc sang Dong Nam A, bien nai day thanh bai rac cdng nghe. Jean-Charles Sambor, chuyen gia d Cdng ty quan ly tai san BNP Paribas Asset Management danh gia: "Cac nude Ddng Nam A dang ngay cang phu thupc kinh tl vao Trung Qudc" va dng
^^ Cue Ddu tu nuac ngodi, "Mpt so ddc diem vg dau tu, thucmg mai giiia Trung Quoc vd cac nuoc ASEAN," Trang thong tin dien tu Cue Dau tir nude ngodi, ngay 22/7/2015, http://fia.mpi.gov.vn/TmBai/3546/Mot-so-dac-diem-ve-dau-tu-thuong-mai-giua-Trung- Quoc-va-cac-nuoc-ASEAN
canh bao mdt biln cd kinh te chang han nhu tang tradng GDP suy ygu nhanh d Trang Qudc cd the gay ra hieu ling lay lan nghiem frpng cho cac nuac Ddng Nam A.^^
Trong Unh vuc chinh tri
Thdi gian tdi Trung Qudc se day manh viec thyc biSn chmh sach
"chia dl fri" ra toan khu vyc, phan hda ASEAN nhieu hon niia. Viec Trung Qudc tang cudng anh hudng ddi vdi khu vuc Dong Nam A se lam khu vyc nay cang trd len ndng ban. De kiem che Trung Qudc, cac nuoc ldn se tiip tuc dieu chinh chinh sach ddi ngoai va tang cudng anh huong ddi vdi khu vuc Ddng Nam A. Viec cac nude ldn tang cudng hien di?n va can thiep sau, rpng ban vao khu vyc nham gianh giat anh hudng va kiim ehl, ngan chan lin nhau de tao dung vi the, hudng khu vyc di theo quy dao rieng cua minh thdng qua thuc day quan he hpp tac kinh te, tang cudng sy hien dien quan su tao ra cac lpi ich va thach thiic dan xen cho cac nude trong khu vyc Ddng Nam A. Viec tang cudng quan he voi cac nude ldn, gdp phan nang cao vi the eiia khu vuc Ddng Nam A. Dong thdi, cac nude Ddng Nam A can phai tinh tao, can bang mdi quan he voi cac nude ldn va ling phd tmdc nhiing bien dpng day phiic tap frong quan he vdi cac nude ldn. Chinh tri nude ldn ban chat la xung dot quyen loi, nhung ciing sin sang thda hiep vdi nhau tten lung nude nhd. Cac cugc khung hoang chinh tti d mpt sd khu vuc tten the gidi thdi gian gan diy dang thu hut su gia tang can dy ciia My cung nhu cac nude ldn. Do do, khdng loai tru kha nang mpt nude ldn nao do, dl dat dupe lpi ich d khu vyc chien lupc eiia minh, se cd su thda hiep d khu vuc Ddng Nmn A.
NIU dieu dd diin ra, cac nude Ddng Nam A cd till gap nhiing khd khan,
^* Chanh Tai, "Moi nguy khi kmh t l Dong Nam A ngay cang phu thupc vao Tnnig Q u i c , " Thai bdo Kinh ti Sdi Gdn, ngdy O9/9/20I7, https://www.thesaigontimes.vn/164482/Moi-nguy-khi-kinh-te-Dong-Nam-A-ngay- cang-phu-thuoc-vao-Trung-Quoc.html.
132 3/2m
Nghien cim Qudc ti sd 1 (116)
phiic tap ttong chinh sach can bing quan he vdi cac nude ldn tai khu vuc.^^
Ddi vdi nhiing nude ed tranh chip chii quyin tten Biln Ddng, Trang Quoc se day manh chien lupc ddi ngoai kieu "cay gay va cu ca rdt" viia kSt hop "siic manh", "de dpa" vua "hpp tac", "ve van", phye vu cho qua trinh gia tang anh hudng khu vyc va thyc hien chien lupc cudng qudc bien. Trong bdi canh Trang Qudc va cac nude ldn tang cudng hien dien d khu vyc, cac nude Ddng Nam A se la mdt ttong nhiing lua chpn ma cac nude nay 16i keo de kiem ehS Tnmg Qudc, md ra ca hdi hpp tac sau rpng ban vdi hai ddi tac nay, nhat la trong van de bao ve ehii quyin bien, dao.
Ngoai ra, Trung Qudc dang mudn the hien vai ttd ldn ban niia cua minh frong giai quyet cac van de toan cau se tgo ca hpi cho cac nude Ddng Nam A frong hpp tac vdi Trung Qudc xu ly cac van de an ninh phi trayen thdng nhu phdng chdng khiing bd, tdi pham xuyen qudc gia, khac phuc hau qua thien tai, ciiu hd, cuu nan...
K^t lu$D
Chinh sach ddi ngoai cua Trung Qudc sau Dai hpi 19 se chuyen manh theo hudng tii bd phucmg cham "giau minh chd thdi" chuyen sang
"hang hai lap cdng", nham khang dinh vi the va quyet tSm canh tranh vi tri sieu cudng vdi My. Trong bdi canh hien tai, Trang Qudc cd dieu kien thuan lpi de thyc thi chinh sach ddi ngoai quyet doan, ciing ran ban, hanh xii fren cuong vi la dat nude dii kha nang lanh dao khu vuc va toan ciu. Tuy nhien, eye dien thi gidi, khu vuc bien dpng khdng ngiing, sy diiu chinh chinh sach va canh tranh chiin lupc giua cac nude ldn ngay cang sau sic, nhieu van de mdi phat sinh khd ludng, nhat la nguy co
" Mai Hoai Anh, "Tdc dpng ciia canh tranh chien luac giira cac nuac Ion o Dong Nam A v6i Viet Nam," Ly ludn chinh tri so 4-2013: 57.
biing nd mdt cudc chien franh thucmg mai tten dien rdng giiia My va Trung Qudc, mang din nhiing bien sd tac dpng true tiep den viec tti§n khai, thyc thi cac chinh sach ciia Trang Qudc ttong thuc tl. Ddng Nam A la khu vyc cd vi tri dia - chien lupc quan trpng ttong chmh sach d6i ngoai cua Trang Qudc, nhat la dat trong bdi canh sy canh tranh chiSn lupc giira Trung Qudc va My tai khu vuc nay ngay cang gia tang va phfic tap theo dd; "Trang Qudc dang tim each thay the vj tri cua My tai khu vyc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong va lap lai ttat tu ciia khu vuc theo hudng cd lpi cho nude nay".^^ Thdi gian tdi, Tnmg Qudc se tap ttung triin khai cac chiin lupc tai khu vyc, nhat la sang ki&n "Vanh dai. Con dudng", tiip tyc quang ba hinh anh nude ldn cd ttach nhiem, md rong vdng anh hudng ra toan Ddng Nam A./.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
Tieng Viet
1. An Binh. "Tnmg Qudc dung vy thu giii tau lan ciia My d Bien Dong dl "thii" dng Tramp?." Ddn Tri, ngay 17/12/2016, https ://danfri. com. vn/the-gioi/trang-quoc-dung-vu-thu-giu-tau-lan- cua-my-o-bien-dong-de-thu-ong-trump-20161217150041042.httn.
2. Mai Hoai Anh. "Tac dpng cua canh ttanh chiin lupc giiia cac nude ldn d Ddng Nam A vdi Viet Nam." Ly ludn chinh tri sd 4-2013: 52- 59.
3. Cue Diu tu nude ngoai. "Mpt sd dac diim vl diu tu, thuang mai giira Trung Qudc va cac nude ASEAN." Trang thdng tin dien tu Cue
^^ USA's Government, "Natinal Security Strategy of the United States of American,"
The White House, December, 18 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp- content/uploads/20l7/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf.
134 3/2019
Nghien cim Qudc ti sd 1 (116)
£>du tu nuac ngodi, ngay 22/7/2015, http://fia.mpi.gov.vn/TinBai/3546/Mot-so-dac-diem-ve-dau-tu-
thuong-mai-giua-Trung-Quoc-va-cac-nuoc-ASEAN.
Dai tieng ndi Viet Nam. "Nhan dien Trung Qudc qua Bao cao chinh tti trinh bay tai Dai hpi 19." Bdo dien tu Ddi tieng ndi Viet Nam, ngay 26/10/2017, https://vov.vn/the-gioi/ho-so/nhan-dien-trung- quoc-qua-bao-cao-chinh-tri-trinh-bay-tai-dai-hoi-19-687472.vov.
Ngpc Ha. "Chang dudng mdi cho quan he Trang-Han." Tin tuc, ngay 17/12/2017, https://baotintuc.vn/the-gioi/ehang-duong-moi-cho- quan-he-tiimg-han-20171217084034169.htin.
Nha xu^t ban Su that. Su that ve quan he Viet Nam - Trung Qudc trong 30 ndm qua. Ha Ndi: Nha xuat ban Su that, 1979.
Nguyen Hien. "Thii trudng Le Quang Manh lam viec vdi Phd Chii tjch Ngan hang AIIB." Cong thdng tin dien tic Bp Ke hoach vd Bdu
tu, ngay 12/9/2018, http://www.mpi.gov.vn/Pages/tinbai.aspx?idTin=40810&idcm=188.
Trang Hieu. "Quan he sdng cdn dac biet giira Nga va Trang Qudc."
Bdo dien tic Ddi tiing ndi Viet Nam. ngay 25/01/2019, https://vov.vn/the-gioi/ho-so/quan-be-song-con-dae-biet-giua-nga-va- trung-quoc-722960.vov
Bui Diic Khanh. "Canh ttanh chiin lupc giiia Trang Qudc va My tai khu vyc." Tap chi Cong sdn, ngay 7/9/2018, http://www.tapchicongsan.org.vn/home/the-gioi-van-de-su-
kien/2018/52194/canh-ttanh-chien-luoc-giua-trang-quoc-va-my-tai- khu-vue.aspx.
). Huang Lan (gt). "Phan ling cua Trang Qudc ddi vdi viec trien khai THAAD: The luang nan ciia Han Qudc.'* Nghien cuu Bien Dong, ngay 09/5/2017, http://nghiencuubiendong.vn/nghien-cuu-dong-bac-
a/6536-phan-ung-cua-tiaing-quoc-doi-voi-thaad-tinh-the-Iuong-nan- cua-han-quoc.
11. Huong Ly. "Nhat Ban va the giang co giiia hai sieu cudng My - Trung." Zing.vn, ngay 27/10/2018, https://news.zing.vn/nhat-ban-va- the-giang-co-giua-hai-sieu-cuong-my-trang-post887484.html.
12. Hoai Nam. "Bien Ddng 2017: Tmng Qudc lan tdi quan sy, lam thay ddi cue dien tten bien." Bdo dien tu Td qudc, ngay 21/12/2017, http://toquoc.vn/bien-dong-2017-trung-quoe-lan-toi-quan-su-lam- thay-doi-cuc-dien-fren-bien-99184011 .htm.
13. Hd Qudc Phii. "Chinh sach ddi vdi Ddng Nam A cua Tnmg Quocva thach thiic ddi vdi Viet Nam." Ly ludn chinh tri, ngay 13/3/2017, http://lyluanchiiihtri.vn/home/index.php/quoc-te/item/1897-chinh- sach-doi-voi-dong-nam-a-cua-trung-quoc-va-thach-thue-doi-voi-viet- nam.html.
14. Pham Hoang Son. "Thuang dinh My - Triiu: Canh bac ciia Trung Qudc?." Nghien ciiu quoc te, ngay 02/3/2019, htlp://nghieneuuquocte.org/2019/03/02/thuong-dinh-my-tiieu-canh- bac-cua-trang-quoc/.
15. Chanh Tai. "Mdi nguy khi kinh tl Ddng Nam A ngay cang phu thuge vao Trang Qudc." Thai bdo Kinh ti Sdi Gdn, ngay 09/9/2017, https://www.thesaigontmies.vn/164482/Moi-nguy-khi-kinh-te-Dong- Nam-A-ngay-eang-phu-thuoc-vao-Trung-Quoc.html.
16. Tran Viet Thai. "Trung Qudc nam 2018: Nam diu diy khd khan."
The gi&i vd Viet Nam, ngay 08/02/2019, http://baoquocte.vn/trung- quoe-2018-nam-dau-day-kho-khan-86697.httnl.
17. Thdng tin xa Viet Nam. "Bao cao tai Dai hdi XIX Dang Cpng san Trang Qudc (Phin 2)." Tdi lieu tham khdo ddc biet ngay 21/10/2017.
136 3/2019
Nghien cihi Quoc tisd 1 (116)
18. Thong tin xa Viet Nam. "Bao cao tai Dai hdi XIX Dang Cpng san Trang Qudc (Phin 3)." Tdi lieu tham khdo dgc biet ngay 22/10/2017.
19. Thdng tin xa Viet Nam. "Bao cao tai Dai hdi XIX Dang Cdng san Trung Qudc (Phan cudi)." Tdi lieu tham khdo ddc biet ngay 24/10/2017.
20. Pham Sy Thanh. "Vanh dai. Con dudng sau Dai hpi 19." Thi giai vd Viet Nam, ngay 01/12/2017, http://baoquocte.vn/vanh-dai-con-duong- sau-dai-hoi-19-61717.html.
21. Huong Tra (gt). "Danh gia siic manh quan he Trang-Nga." Nghien ciiu Biln Ddng, ngay 14/6/2018, http://nghiencuubiendong.vn/tin- quoc-te-tong-hop/6981-anh-gia-sc-mnh-quan-h-trang-nga.
22. Dinh Cdng Tuan. "Dieu chinh chinh sach ddi ngoai cua Trang Qudc hien nay." Vdn hda Nghe An, ngay 17/7/2015, http ://vanhoanghean. com .vn/chuyen-muc-goc-nhin-van-hoa/nhin-ra- the-gioi/dieu-chinh-chinb-sacb-doi-ngoai-cua-trung-quoc-bien-nay.
23. Van Viet. "Trieu Tien cd the chu dinh thu ten lira trung hpi nghi d Trang Qudc." Vnexpres, ngay 01/12/2017, https://vnexpress.net/the- gioi/trieu-tien-co-the-chu-dinh-thu-ten-lua-trang-hoi-nghi-o-trang- quoe-3584818.html.
Tieng Anh
24. Ali, Idress. "Exclusive: Chma finishing South Chin Sea buildings that could house missiles - U.S. officials." Reuters, Febraary, 21, 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-usa-southchinasea- exclusive-idUSKBN 161029.
25. Issaky, H., Oki, N. and Shunsuke, Sh. "Xi and Abe use economy as binding force but hold back on security." Asian Review, October 27,
2018, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intemational-relations/Xi-and- Abe-use-economy-as-binding-force-but-hold-back-on-security.
26. Khurana, Gurpreet S. "South Sea Fleet: Emerging Lynchpin of China's Naval Power Projection in the Indo-Pacific." National Maritime Foundation, Febraary, 10, 2016, http://maritimeindia.org/View%20Profile/635906647485261561.pdf 27. Panda, Ankit. "The Tramp Administration Needs a Clear South
China Sea Policy." The Diplomat, January 24, 2017, http://thediplomat.com/2017/01/the-trump-administration- needs-a-clear-south-china-sea-policy/.
28. Tang, Siew M. "China's dangerous divide and conquer game with ASEAN/" Today, April 26, 2016, https ://www.todayonline.com/world/asia/chinas-dangerous-divide- and-conquer-game-asean.
29. USA's Govermnent. "Natinal Security Sfrategy of the United States of American." The White House, December, 18 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-eontent/uploads/2017/12/NSS- Final-12-18-2017-0905 .pdf
138 3/2019
