NGHIEN cufu TRAO DOI
^CAC KY THUAT KIEM CHUAN TRONG PHU^GfNG PHAP MIMIC VA QUY MO NEN KINH TE NGAM d CAC QUOC GIA DONG NAM A
Ngay nhan: 06/5/2014 Ngay nhan lai: 18/9/2014 Ngay duyet dang. 10/10/2014
Ma so: 10-14-NCTD-lO
Vo Hdng Diic (V Ly Ht£ng Thinh (*V
Tom tdt: Kinh ti' ngdm (KTN) dang tdn tai nhu mgt thuc te cua cupc sdng tren todn thi' giai, bdt ki trinh do phdt triin cua tdng quo'c gia. Be ban hdnh dUac nhUng chinh sdch kinh ti vl mo phu hap, viec do lUdng quy mo nen KTN Id thuc sd cdn thiit, Id diiu kiin tien quyit di hinh thdnh cdc chinh sdch phu hap.
Nghien cdu ndy duac thiic Men nhdm muc dich xdc dinh quy mo KTN cua cdc qudc gia ASEAN trong giai doq.n 1995-2014, sd dung phuang phdp MIMIC. Ket qud nghien cdu cho rdng khi sd dung MIMIC, ky thudt kHm chudn dS nghi bdi Bell'Anno vd Schneider (2006) Id phu hap nhdt nham quy ddi gid tri tuang doi, duac xdc dinh td MIMIC, sang gid tri tuyet ddi cua quy mo KTN. PhUang phdp ndy CO xem xet den sU tdng trUdng cua nen kinh ti chinh thdc din quy mo cua nen KTN; cung nhu tdc dong cua cdc yiu td vl mo trong nen kinh ti. Ket qud dinh luang chl ra rang quy mo nin KTN d Viet Nam c6 xu huang gia tdng trong suit giai doan nghien cdu (1995-2014). Bac biit, trong giai doan 2005-2006, quy md nen KTN cua Viet Nam dao dgng trong khodng td 25-30% quy mo nen kinh ti chinh thdc.
TH khoa: Kinh ti ngdm, quy mo, khuynh hudng, mo hinh MIMIC, kiim chudn, Bong Nam A.
Gi6i t h i e u
Co nhieu each p h a n loai va phifang phap khac nhau nham xac dinh quy mo cua khu vdc KTN. Ngay nhif t e n gpi cung da cho t h a y E\1 da dang, phong phu cua n e n KTN Mot so' ten goi khac thifcfng gap la: kinh ti in, kinh ti phi chinh thiJc, kinh te' thu* hai, kinh ti ti^n mat va kinh te song song Trong nghien cd'u nay, thuat ngC "KTN" se difoc sil dung n h a t quan trong toan bai viet.
Do liJdng quy mo cua n e n KTN r a t phCc t a p , bdi vi t a t ca doanh nghiep va ca n h a n t h a m gia vao khu vifc n e n KTN deu t r a n h hi p h a t hien. Trong khi do, cac n h a lam chinh sach va quan ly kinh te cAn. phai bie't diiqc quy mo ciia cac hoat dong nay nh&m phuc vu cho viec ban h a n h mgt chinh sach kinh te' pliii
h g p . Hcfn t h e , quy mo va to'c do p h a t trien cua ngn KTN se dong vai tro n e n tang cho cac n h a l a m chinh sach b a n h a n h nhiing quy dinh vdi muc dich g i a m thieu quy mo cua nen KTN, tao dieu k i e n de moi b o a t dong trong n e n kinh te' trd t h a n h chinh thiJc va chiu sii chi phd'i gio'ng n h a u cua p h a p luat. Do vay, viec xac dinh quy mo n e n KTN, dii khd khan va nhieu t r a n h cai, nhi/ng v a n la viec lam rat can thiet. Mdt trong nhQng phuang phap duce sQ dung rdng rai n h a t t r e n p h a m vi toan th§
gidi trong cac nghien ciJu vg KTN la phacfng p h a p MIMIC. Tuy n h i e n , n h d m tac gia nhSn t h a y rkng. vdi phucfng p h a p nay, quy md cua n e n KTN phu thudc vao cac ky thuat ki^^m chuan (benchmarking) k h a c nhau. Do viy, nghien cd'u n a y xac dinh quy md n^n KTN cho cac qud'c gia khu viic ASEAN dufa t r e n cic ky thuat kiem chuan kh^c nhau, v('(i muc dich
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liitfng hda sif thay ddi khi cdc ky t h u a t khac nhau duac sd dung.
M$t s o k h a i n i ^ m v e k i n h te' n g a m T6 chuTc Lao dong Quo'c te (ILO) sd dung thuat ngil "khu vdc kinh te phi chinh thijfc" (Informal Economy) de d i l n dat n^n KTN, cu the la de cSp din ta't ca cdc hoat dong kinh te' (tren van ban hodc t r e n thac te) khdng du'dc digu tiet mpt cdeh chinh thii'c hoac cd dieu tie't nhung khdng day du (CEACR, 2011). Khu vtfc n&y CO quy md nhd; san xuat, p h a n phd'i h a n g hda vd dich vu do ngu'di lao ddng t\l do, ngiidi lao ddng trong gia dinh v^ mot so' it Iao dong khac dam nhan. Dac diem cua khu vile nay la dl tham nhap, yeu cau v^ vd'n tha'p, su" dung cong nghe va lao ddng ky n a n g don gian, nfing suat lao ddng t h a p .
Vien Khoa hpc Thd'ng ke Viet Nam (2010) cung vdi Dcfn vi nghien cli'u P h a t t r i e n the chi vk PhSn tich dai h a n (DIAL) da dUa tren dinh nghia cua ILO va lam rd t h e m hai tigu chud'n: (i) Khu vUc kinh te phi chinh thiJc Id td't ca cdc doanh nghiep khdng cd tuf cdeh phdp nhdn, s a n xud't it nhd't mdt hoac mgt vdi san p h a m va dich vu de bdn hodc trao dd'i, khdng ddng ky kinh doanh (khdng cd gia'y phep kinh doanh) vd khdng thudc ngdnh ndng, Idm n g h i e p va thuy sdn; (li) Viec ldm phi chinh thUc la viec lam khdng cd bao hiem xa hdi (dac biet la bao hiem y te). Trong khi do, td chdc OECD cho rdng khdi niem KTN duoc sd dung dd chi ra cdc hoat dpng kinh te' khdng di/gc tinh vao GDP, do chiing bi a n di vd ccf quan n h a mldc
"khdng quan s a t dUoc" {OECD, 2002). Dd la cdc hoat ddng san xuat h a n g hda, dich vu hffp phdp n h a n g khdng khai bao; san xudt hdng hda dich vu bd't hap phdp va thu n h a p khdng rd rdng.
Mgt sd' dinh nghia thadng dagc sa dung trong m^t s6' nghien ciJu t r e n the' gidi nha Id: t a t ca cdc hoat ddng kinh te daoc tinh todn (hodc quan sdt) chinh thiJc vdo tdng san pham qudc
gia (GNP) n h a n g khdng dagc ddng ky (Feige;
1986, 1989). Smith (1994) da dinh nghia KTX la thi tra&ng h a n g hda vd dich vu, bat ke hgp phdp hay khong, thoat khoi sa do ladng chinh thac cua GDP. Ndi each khac, KTN cd the dagc dinh nghia Id cac hoat dgng kinh te' va cac thu n h a p dagc trich t a todn bd nen kinh te' t r a n h sii dieu tie't cua Chinh phu vd he thd'ng thue'. Cd quan diem lai cho rdng nen KTN phdt trien qua thdi gian va tudn thu theo "nguyen tdc nadc chay": KTN t a dieu chinh de thay ddi cho phii hop vdi hd thd'ng thue, each thac xd phat ciia ca quan thue' va t h a i do, dao diic cua xd hgi (Mogensen vd cde tac gia, 1995).
Nha dd trinh bay, sa ddng thudn trong edc dinh nghia ve KTN la khdng ddng nha't Do vay, trong nghien cdu nay, KTN dagc dinh nghia la khu vac kinh te' bao gom td't cd hoat dgng trgn thi trUdng hang hda va dich vu hgp phap, daoc che day can than khdi sg quan ly cua nha nadc bdi cdc ly do: (i) Trdnh thug' thu nhap, thue' gid tri gia tdng hoac cdc loai thug' khdc; (ii) Trdnh ddng gdp bdo hii'm xd hdi; (iii) T r a n h cac quy dinh ve ti^n laang td'i thig'u, sd' gid lam td'i da, tieu chuan an todn;
(iv) T r a n h cac rde rd'i vg thu tuc hdnh chinh.
Phricfng p h a p do Mdtng quy m o kinh t e ngam Cd nhigu phaang phap de do ladng quy md KTN. Tau trung lai, cdc phuang phdp ndy dagc chia t h a n h ba nhdm chinh:
PhUcfng phdp trUc tie'p: Cd hai phaang phdp t r a c tie'p dagc sd dung dg' adc lagng quy md ngn KTN: (i) P h a a n g phap didu tra khao sdt; (ii) P h a a n g p h a p kig'm todn thue'.
Ca hai phaong phdp nay eung cap thdng tin chi tie't vg ca'u triic n e n KTN. Tuy nhien, cde phaang phdp ndy eho ket qud adc lagng ve quy md ngn KTN t h d p ban so vdi cdc phaang p h a p adc lagng khdc (Greenidge vd cdc tdc gia, 2009) Phaang phdp trae tiep edn dagc ggi la phaang p h a p tie'p cdn cdc yeu td vi md.
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Phuang phdp gidn tiep: Phaang phap nay ehu yeu siJ dung cac t h d n g tin khdng lien quan trae tid'p dd'n edc hoat dgng trong n e n KTN. Phaang p h a p nay t h a t sa hau ich vi nhieu dd'i tagng dagc khao sdt khdng mud'n ca quan chiJc nang bie't de'n cac hoat ddng n g a m cua hp. Dl nhien, ne'u theo cdeh t r a c tie'p, cdc do'i taong nay cd thd' che ddy cac hoat ddng trong n^n kinh ti khdng chinh t h a c , ddn den thdng tin dapc phan hdi thie'u sdt. Cdc n h a kinh te' gpi phaong p h a p ndy la cdeh tie'p can theo hadng vi md. Theo do, cdc bie'n sd' vi md dagc sii dung mdt each thich hgp dg" trich xud't thdng tin thd" hien xu hadng gia tdng trong ngn KTN. Cdc phaang phdp gidn tig'p de adc lagng quy md nen KTN bao gdm: (i) Chenh lech gida thd'ng kg tdi khoan qud'c gia vd chi tieu qud'c gia; (ii) Chenh lech giaa lac lagng lao ddng chinh thiJc va thac te'; (iii) Phaong phdp giao dich; (iv) Phaong p h a p cdu ve tien;
(v) Phaong phdp tieu thu dien nang.
Phuang phdp mo hinh: Phaong phap nay quan tam dd'n cdc nguyen n h a n va a n h hadng ciia KTN eting mdt !uc. Phaang phap nay daa tren mo hinh D'YMIMIC (dynamic multiple-indicators multiple-causes) bao gdm hai mo hinh: (i) Md hinh do ladng dagc sijf dung nhdm lien ke't cac chi sd quan sat dapc vdi quy md n e n KTN; (ii) Md hinh cau triic dapc sii' dung n h d m chi ra md'i quan he nhan qua gida cde chi sd' nguyen n h a n quan sdt dagc.
Khao sat co sd ly thuye't eho thd'y rang cd 3 nguyen nhan chinh gay ra KTN dagc xdc dinh Id gdnh nang thue (Tanzi, 1999; Schneider va Enste, 2000); the ehe', quy dinh cua chinh phu (Schneider va Enste, 2000; Johnson va cdc tdc gia, 1997; Friedman va ede tac gia, 1999) va tinh than ddng thug'. Ben canh dd, 3 hdu qua khi gia t a n g quy md KTN la sa gia t a n g ty Ie eung tien trdn thi tradng tien te, tac dgng de'n thi tradng lao ddng va tdc ddng den thi tradng san xua't (Loayza, 1996). Phaong phdp ndy cd ehieu sau va toan dien hon cdc phaang phdp khde. Tuy vay, h a n chg' ldn cua viec suf dung phaong phdp nay Id sd lapng dd
lieu p h a i ldn vd ed t h ^ sd' lieu k h d n g tdn tai pho bien cho p h a n ldn quoc gia, dac biet cdc qud'c gia dang p h d t t r i ^ n va chdm p h a t trien.
Muc dich cua n g h i e n ciJu n a y Id xac dinh quy md cua n e n KTN suT dung phaang phdp MIMIC.
Do vay, nghi§n cdu n a y chi t r i n h bdy cu the 5 p h a n tie'p theo phaong p h d p do ladng MIMIC (Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes).
Phtfofng p h a p MIMIC
Day la mdt trong nhO'ng phaong phdp dagc su:
dung de ddc lagng xu hadng cua KTN. Trong khi cdc phaang phdp khdc n h a phaong phap cau ve tien hay phaang phdp tieu thu dien nang chi quan tdm den mgt chi sd' (cau v^ tien hay tieu thu dien nang); n6n tang ly thuyet cho rdng KTN cdn a n h hadng tdi nhieu ehi so' khdc dong thdi n h a san lagng; lao dgng va thi tradng tien te. Trong nghien cdu nay, nhom tdc gia suf dung md hinh MIMIC - mgt kieu cua md hinh cd'u true cdn bdng SEM (Structural Equations Model) de xac dinh quy md n i n KTN cho eae qud'c gia Ddng Nam A, bao gdm Viet Nam. Y tadng chinh cua SEM la kiem tra md'i quan he giOa cdc bie'n khdng quan sat dagc vdi cdc md'i quan he giiJa mdt t a p cdc bie'n quan sat dagc bdng cdeh siS dung ma t r a n phaong sai.
Trong md hinh MIMIC, KTN la bie'n khdng quan s a t dagc va p h a n tich daa vao md'i quan he vdi cae big'n quan sdt dagc. Vdi muc dich nay, trade t i e n bie'n KTN dagc lidn ke't vdi cdc ehi sd' quan sdt dagc t r o n g mo hinh phan tich n h a n td' hay cdn dapc ggi la md hinh do ladng. Sau dd, md'i quan he gida bie'n KTN vdi cdc bie'n giai thich (nguydn n h a n ) dage chi ra bdi md hinh ca'u true. Do dd, md hinh MIMIC la phaong phdp sd dung ddng thdi md hinh n h d n td' vd md h i n h cd'u true.
Md hinh ca'u triic dage md t a bdi edng thiic:
T; = y ' X + C d'
Trong dd; X=(xi, X2,.-., x^) la ma t r d n (q*l) va mdi x„ i = 1,.., q Id nguyen n h a n cua bie'n
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ngam (cdn dagc gpi Id latent variable hoac Id bien khong quan sdt dage) ;/, y'=(yi, yg, -, y^ Id ma trdn (l*q) he so" md ta md'i quan he gida bie'n ngam vdi cdc nguyen n h d n cua nd vd ^ Id sai sd'. Do dd, bie'n ngdm ri dagc xdc dinh bdi t a p hgp cdc bien ngoai sinh.
Md hinh do ladng cd th^ dagc the hidn:
y= Xrj-\- E (2) Trong dd: y=iyi, y^, -, ^q) Id ma t r d n cdc bie'n
ket qua (p*l). X la ma t r d n cdc he sd' hoi quy cd kich thadc (p*l) vd z la ma t r d n sai so' cd kich thadc (p*l).
Ke't hpp phaang t r i n h (1) vdi phaong trinh (2) d l daa ra dang riit ggn tft md hinh hdi quy nhieu chieu (Multivariate regression model).
Trong do ede bien ndi sinh y j = 1,..., p la cdc bie'n ke't qua cua bie'n ngam Y] va cac big'n ngoai sinh x i = 1,,.., q la cdc bie'n nguyen nhdn eua bie'n ngdm ;/. Phaong trinh tdng qudt dagc ch^ng minh:
Tif (2) ^ tj= A-Yy-e) Tii (1) va (2), ta ed:
y'X-t- C =''-'Vy-e)
<-> y = X y'X + A^-i-E
^ y = nX -I- z (3) Don gidn hon, Hinh 1 t h i hien ca'u true cua
md hinh MIMIC b^ng phaong phdp so dd {Path diagram).
Ndi tdm lai, phaang phdp adc lagng cua md hinh MIMIC Id xde dinh cdc gia thuye't ve md'i quan he glOa KTN (bie'n khdng quan sdt dagc) vdi edc bien nguyen n h a n vd ket qua.
Tuy nhien, phaong phdp ndy chi adc lapng gid tri taang dd'i eua quy md KTN. Do dd, mdt sd' ky thudt kiem chuan se dage su" dung (trinh bdy chi tig't d phan 5: Mdt sd' ky thudt kiem chuan) de do ladng gid tri tuyet dd'i eua quy md KTN tif gid tri taang dd'i d tren.
Mpt so' k y t h u a t k i e m c h u a n
Udc lagng quy md KTN bdng phaang phdp md hinh (chang ban nha phaang phap MIMIC) cd the toan dien hon edc phaang phdp gidn tie'p.
Tuy nhien, ban chd' eua phaong phdp md hinh dd la phaong phdp ndy ehi adc laang dagc ehi so' taong dd'i eua quy md KTN. Chi so' taong dd'i Id gia tri dage tinh todn td edc he sd' hdi quy eua cdc bie'n quan sat dagc trong md hinh nghien cufu. Vg mat y nghia kinh te', chi sd taong dd'i phu thudc rd't nhieu vdo ndm gd'c vd phaang phdp chuyen ddi tif chi sd' taang dd'i sang chi sd tuyet ddi nham tra ldi cho eau hdi nghien cdu dagc quan tam v l quy md cua n i n KTN. Viee chuyen doi chi sd taang dd'i thdnh gid tri tuyet dd'i cua quy md KTN so vdi quy md nen kinh te' chinh {% GDP) la viec khong dl ddng vi nd phu thudc rd't nhieu vdo ky thudt kilm chuan.
Nhieu ky thuat kiem chuan da dagc cdng bd' trong n h a n g nghign cdu rieng bidt, dp dung Hinh 1: Cau true t o n g quat m o h i n h MIMIC
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cho nhang qud'c gia khdc nhau trong nhu'ng chudi thcfi gian khdc nhau. Do do, cdu hoi dat ra Id Iam sao xde dinh dage ky thuat kiem ehuan ndo kha thi va hgp ly nha't, trong bd'i canh cde qud'c gia ASEAN, trong khi cdc ky thudt nay da dagc dp dung eho edc dd'i tagng nghien cufu, thcfi diem nghien cufu khac nhau. Nghien cdu ndy se kiem chufng 5 ky thuat kiem chuan tren mgt nen tang duy nhd't Id edc qud'c gia dang phdt trien tai Ddng Nam A, giai doan 1995- 2014. Cdc ky thudt kiem chuan dagc suf dung d l chuyen ddi gid tri taang dd'i sang gid tri tuyet dd'i cua quy mo KTN (r| ) lan lagt n h a sau:
Giles vd Tedds (2002)
Trong nghign cdu ciia minh, Giles vd Tedds cho rdng gid tri taong dd'i cua quy md nen KTN ed the dagc chuyen sang gid tri tuyet dd'i:
i«-
(4)Trong dd, rj^ id chi sd taang dd'i the hidn quy md cua nen KTN tai ndm t vd fj la chi sd' taong dd'i KTN tai n a m gd'c. Chi sd taang ddi the hien quy md cua n i n KTN daac tinh todn:
'?£ = YqX^t
Vdi Yq la he sd hdi quy cua bie'n x vd i\ Id quy md KTN tai ndm gd'c.
Nha vay, theo G-T 2002, gid tri tuyet dd'i quy md KTN chi dagc quy ddi td gid tri tuyet ddi quy rad KTN tai ndm gd'c vd ty le cua chi so' tuong ddi tai thdi d i l m tinh todn vdi nam gd'c.
Trong dd, ^,.j la ty le thay ddi quy md KTN tai ndm (t-1) so vdi n a m gd'c. Ax^^ the hien sg thay ddi eua bie'n x„ tai n a m t so vdi n a m (t-1), hay
•i_2j. Taong tg nha ndi cdeh khdc Ax g
phaang p h a p kidm chuan cua Giles va Tedds (2002), fj^ t h e hidn quy md KTN tai nam gd'c.
N h a vdy, theo D-S 2003, gid tri tuygt dd'i quy md KTN k h d n g nhiJng phu thudc vdo quy md KTN t a i n a m gd'c ma cdn ty le thay ddi quy md KTN va sg t h a y ddi dd lidu cua hai thdi diem lien k e .
Bajada vd Schneider (2005) Trgn n i n t a n g cua phapng p h a p kiem chu^n Dell'Anno vd Schneider (2003), ke't hgp vdi mgt tac gid khdc la Bajada va Schneider (2005) cho r d n g phaong p h d p chuyen ddi nay nen dagc thgc hien:
Yq^Xql (6) Trong dd, gf^ Id td'c dd t a n g tradng quy mo KTN tai n a m t vd g^^ Id td'c do tdng tradng quy md KTN t a i n a m gd'c. Do dd, quy md KTN tai n a m t cd the dagc xdc dinh:
N h a vay, theo B-S 2005, quy md KTN tai thdi diem nghien ciiu la tdng cua quy md KTN tai ndm gd'c va td'c do t a n g t r a d n g quy md KTN tai thdi diem nghign cdu.
goc. Tedds (2005) Dell'Anno vd Schneider (2003)
Mdt nam sau dd, nhdm tdc gia khde bao gdm Dell'Anno va Schneider lai cho r a n g gia tri tuyet ddi quy md KTN cd the daac tinh toan daa t r e n chi so taong ddi cd daoc tif phaong phdp MIMIC:
•• \ + \ , + r Ax
Trong nghign ciiu eiia minh, Tedds cho rdng each thdc de chuyg'n ddi gid tri taang ddi sang gid tri tuyet dd'i ciia quy md n i n KTN la su- dung phaang t r i n h (8):
(7) Trong dd, gf^ Id td'c do t a n g tradng quy mo KTN tai ndm t va ^f^^ la td'c do tdng tradng quy md kinh te chinh thac Theo cdng thilc
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cua Tedds (2005), sg thay ddi quy md KTN taong ang vdi sg thay ddi GDP khi so sdnh vdi ndm gdc, khi ddort = r^: ^ ^ . Do dd, quy md KTN tai ndm t cd the dage xac dinh:
flt = % + gt (8)
Nha vdy, Tedds (2005) cung taang tg nha B-S 2005, quy md KTN tai thdi diem nghien cifu Id tdng eua quy md KTN tai ndm gd'c va tdc do tdng tradng quy md KTN tai thdi diem nghign cCfu.
Tuy nhien, cdeh xdc dinh tdc do tdng tradng quy md KTN lai phu thugc vao tde do tdng tradng GDP.
Dell'Anno va Schneider (2006) Han 3 ndm sau, Dell'Anno va Schneider (2006) lai cho rdng, tren nen tang cua nghidn cufu dagc thge hien nam 2003, each thufc td't nhd't de chuyen ddi gid tri taong dd'i sang gid tri tuyet dd'i eua quy md KTN la suf dung phaong trinh:
vt= f,x,,*^Hg?'' + i)
^b^ (9)Trong dd, fqX^^ Id chi sd' taong dd'i the hien quy md cua nen KTN tai ndm t vd rjh Id chi sd' taong dd'i KTN tai ndm gd'c, fyj, la gid tri
phap cdn lai n h a phaong phdp cua Giles vd Tedds (2002), Dell'Anno vd Schneider (2003), Bajada vd Schneider (2005).
DiT l i e u v a phtfcfng p h a p n g h i e n ca'u Nghien cdu sd dung dQ lieu mdt sd' qud'c gia cd thu nhdp binh qudn ddu ngadi trung binh vd t h a p khu vgc Ddng Nam A, bao gdm: Vidt Nam, Lao, Campuehia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thai Lan, Myanmar vd Philippines, giai doan 1995-2014. Singapore vd Brunei khdng bao gdm trong nghien cdu nay do thu n h a p binh qudn dau ngadi eua hai qud'c gia ndy la rat eao so vdi thu n h a p eua cdc qud'c gia edn Iai trong mdu nghidn ciJu. Nghign ciiu cung khdng bao gdm Ddng Timor vi sd' lieu cho qud'c gia nay chaa day du de phuc vu cho nghien cdu ndy.
DQ lieu daac tdng hgp tit n h i l u ngudn khdc nhau. Chi tie't ngudn ddn cua tifng sd' lieu dapc liet ke trong Bang 1,
Phaong phdp nghien cdu sif dung md hinh MIMIC vdi cac bie'n nguyen n h d n va ke't qua n h a Bdng 2.
tuyet dd'i quy md KTN tai ndm td'c do tdng tradng GDP tai ndm t.
c, gt Id Ke't q u a n g h i e n ciJu
Nha vdy, theo D-S 2005, gid tri tuyet dd'i quy md KTN khdng nhdng phu thudc vdo ehi sd taang dd'i KTN md edn ty le gida gid tri tuyet ddi, taong dd'i cua KTN vd tdc dd tdng tradng GDP tai thdi dilm nghien cdu.
Dga vdo ta't ca cdc phdOng phdp kiem ehuan dagc s d d u n g vdo muc dich quy ddi gid t r i t a p n g dd'i, dagc xde dinh td phaong phdp MIMIC sang gid tri tuyet dd'i eho quy md KTN, ehung ta cd thd nhan thd'y rdng phaang phdp cua Tedds (2005), Dell'Anno vd Schneider (2006) cd sd dung td'c do tdng tradng GDP. Dilu nay cd the ket luan rdng quy md n i n KTN, dagc thd hi^n thdng qua gia tri tuyet dd'i, dagc xdc dinh khi sd dung hai phdang p h a p kiem chuS"n ndy se cd sg khdc biet vdi cdc phaong
Sau khi thge hien md hinh MIMIC de do ladng quy md KTN cac qud'c gia Ddng Nam A, cac he so' hdi quy dapc the hien trong Bang 3.
Bang 1: Ngudn so lieu tham khao Du- lieu
Chi tieu chinh phu Thue sua't thi/c te Tg do kinh doanh Tg do lao dong Ty le t h a t nghiep Tir do ngan kho Cung tien te Mg, Mj Nguon thu tg thue GDP tren dau ng\iai Lac laang lao don^
Ngudn To chu"c Heritage Ngan hang The Gidi
Tn chdc Heritage To chifc lleritafje Quy tien te quoc te To chiic Henlage Ngan hang phat t n e n chau A
Ngan hang The giOi Ngan hang The guii Ngdn h i n g The yiiii
Congnghe n g a n HanQ P P I
So lll3*Thanf IU/2014 U j
> » » NGHIEN Cl/U TRAO DOI
Bien n g u y e n
n h a n
Bie'n ke't qua
B a n g 2: Bie'n so' dvidc svt d u n g trong n e h i e n cu*u T e n bie'n
Thue' sua't thgc te' Tg do ngan khd Chi tieu chinh phij Tg do lao dgng Tg do kinh doanh Ty le tha't nghiep Ty le cung tien MO/Ml Ngudn thu td thue Tang tradng GDP Thi tradng lao dgng
Ky h i e u x l x2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x6 y i y 2 y 3 y 4
NghiSn ciiu trxidc Schneider va cac tac gia (2010) Schneider va cac tdc gia (2010) Buehn va Schneider (2012) Dreher va cac tac gia (2008) Schneider va cde tdc gia (2010) Schneider va cdc tdc gid (2010) Schneider vd eae tdc gid (2010) Dreher (2008)
Schneider va cac tac gia (2010) Schneider va cdc tac gia (2010) Thay the' nhdng he sd' nay vdo phaang trinh
md hinh cau true (1), phaang trinh xac dinh quy md ndn KTN:
Vc = I t + 0 , 1 2 4 * - 0 , 4 4 4 '
- 0 , 1 3 1 * Xjt- 0 , 4 5 3 * ^41 n n i - 0 , 3 3 8 - j - 6 , + ( ^^^'
Tiep dd chi sd' taong dd'i cua quy md KTN can phdi dagc chuyin ddi thdnh gid tri tuyet dd'i b^ng cdc ky thuat kil'm chuan. Nhdng gia tri quy md KTN dagc tinh theo nam gd'c rd't cdn thiet cho cdc tinh todn nay. Kg't qua t a nghien cdu ciia Schneider (2010) dage sd dung. Trong nghign cdu nay, ndm gd'c Id ndm 1999 dagc sd dung dd adc lagng quy md KTN cua 162 qud'c gia trong khoang giai doan 1999-2007 ciJa Schneider, sd dung phaang phdp MIMIC.
Day cung la nghien cdu d^u tien tdp trung day du cac qud'c gia Ddng Nam A. Dieu nay la ca sd de nghien cdu nay dagc Iga chgn.
Giles vd Tedds (2002)
Theo ky thudt kiem chuan cua Giles va Tedds (2002), gid tri truyet dd'i cua quy md KTN fj^
tai thdi diem t dagc xac dinh;
B a n g 3; Ke't q u a h e so hoi quy Bie'n nguyen nhan
Thue sua't thirc te Tir do ngan kho' Chl tieu chinh phu Tu' do Iao dong TLT do kinh doanh Ty le that nghiep
1 0,124 (2,596)***
-0,131 (2,909)***
-0,453 (4.865)***
-0,444 (6,097)***
-0,338 (6,876)*"*
Bien ke't qua Ty le cung tign MO/Ml Nguon thu tCr thue Tang tradng GDP Thi tracing lao dong
1 -0,988 (11,391)***
0,172 (2,129)'*
0.768 {9,203)***
Ke t qua kie'm dinh RMSEA (p-value) Chi-square (p-value) So quan sat Bac tu do
0,037 (0,96) 482,085 (0,00)
160 21 Ghi chti •">'"' p < 0,01. •**p <Q,05, ti duoc gta dmh ddng bien. vat quy mc quy, Bien ty le Cling tien MO I Ml daac cua mo hinh MIMIC dS thong nhdt
•.-Kdt q Hnh t. nhom
*• /) < O.IO: Bien Thue sudt thilc KTN nen ditac co dinh hf sShi\
cd dinh theo quy dinh nh4n dang nh&ng nghi&n ciiu triloc d&y
edc bien ngoai s i n h cung vdi cdc he sd h6i quy td phaang t r i n h (3).
'/1999
Trong dd, rit 'a chi sd taong ddi quy md KTN tai ndm t dagc tinh theo phaong phdp MIMIC, j?:999 la chi so tdong ddi quy md KTN t a i ndm gd'c 1999 vd 7)1^^^ la Mdc lagng dga t r e n
Vi du cu t h e , the gid tri x^ (i=l,,. ,6) lan IdOt la thue sua't, t a do ngdn khd, chi tieu chinh phti, tg do lao ddng, t g do kinh doanh vd ty IS thd't nghigp cua Vidt Nam ndm 2013 vd nSm gdc 1999 vdo phaong t r i n h (10) vdi gia dinh
^ =0 , ta ed:
EQ «<^ nganhang
Su'Kl.l'Tliani' 10/2014
NGHIEN Cl/U TRAO BOI « « <
Hlnh 2: Quy m o KTN V i e t Nam glai d o a n 1995-2014 (%GDP)
^ 1 ^ t ^ i ^
^ ^ •?' # ' # # •*• <*'' .?' .*' # # # # .5? .f ^~ ^^ ^f .r ~f nf ^' ^' .?~ ^~ ^~ J- _ * _ * _c^ _^ _o
- • - G - T (2002) D-S (2005) - * - B - S (2005) ^ ^ Tedds (2005) D-S (2006) NguSn' Ket qud link todn ciia nhom tdc gid
,,(™) = 39,9 + 0,124*43-0,131.81,4-0,453. 64,1 (12) Dell'Anno vd Schneider (2003) -0,444 * 40 - 0,338 - 6,74 = -14,51
i7,„,3(™) = 35,Z +
Td kg't qua phaang trinh (12) vd (13), the gid tri rj^aisiVN) =-24,42 va JJ 1999(1^/^) =-14,51 vao phaong trinh (11), vdi r}l^^q = l5,8 (Schneider, 2010). Ta cd:
f}2oi2(yN') = f ^ llow = 26,6 (%GDP) (14) Do rjt: la chi so' taong dd'i quy md KTN t a i ndm t n e n se k h d n g dage the hien trong Hinh 2. Ben canh dd, gid tri cua rjt cd the Id daong ( + ) hay dm (-) tuy vdo he sd hdi quy tLf phaang t r i n h (10) vd dd lieu t a i ndm / taong dng. Theo cdeh thie't ke' cua phacfng phdp, edc gid tri fj[ se phai ddng n h d t ve da'u (dddng hodc am) xuyen sudt chudi thdi gian dagc nghien cdu. Do vay, hien tagng gid tri tuyet dd'i cua quy md KTN Id mdt sd' am (-) Id dieu khdng the xay ra. Taong tg, ap dung phaong t r i n h (10) va (11) vdi td't ca mdc thdi gian t vd lan lagt t a n g qude gia, gid tri tuyet dd'i quy md KTN cua cdc qud'c gia Ddng Nam A.
Theo ky thudt kiem chu^n cua Dell'Anno vd Schneider (2003), gid tri tuyet dd'i quy md KTN khdng nhdng phu thudc vdo quy md KTN cua n a m gd'e ma cdn phu thude vdo ty le thay doi gia tri taang dd'i quy md KTN tai ndm trade lien ke va sg thay doi gid tri cua: thue' sua't thgc te', tg do ngdn kho', chi tigu chinh phu, tg do lao ddng, tg do kinh doanh, ty le tha't nghiep eua cdc qud'c gia dagc nghien cdu so vdi ndm trade lien kg. Cu the hon, td phaong trinh (5), ta cd the xdc dinh gid tri tuyet dd'i quy md KTN cua Viet Nam tai n a m 2013:
^2013 ^ ^ 1 9 9 9 + '?2012 + Yq^Xq20U < ^ ^ ' Trong dd, fq vdi (q=l,. .,6) lan lagt Id he sd' hdi quy cua cde bie'n thug' sua't thgc tg', ta do ngdn khd', chi tieu chinh phii, td do lao dpng, tg do kinh doanh, ty le thd't nghiep. AX(,2oi3 la hieu sd' cua cdc bie'n thue' sud't, tg do ngdn khd', chi tieu ehinh phii, tg do lao ddng, tg do kinh doanh, ty le thd't nghiep cua Viet Nam ndm 2013 so vdi ndm 2012. Cu the:
K,ncjh^nganhangi
,Sn'103»Than^ 10/^14 I
> » » NGHIEN cufu TRAO DOI
Bie'n n ^ y e n
nhan
Bie'n k e t qua
Bang 2: Bien so' diirfc siJ dung trong n g h i e n cdu Ten bie'n
Thue' suat thac te Tg do ngan kho Chi tieu chinh phu Tg do lao ddng Ta do kinh doanh Ty le tha't nghiep Ty 16 cung tien MO/Ml Ngudn thu td thue' Tang tradng GDP Thi tradng lao dgng
Ky h i e u x l x 2 x 3 x 4 x5 x 6 y i y 2 y 3 y 4
N g h i a n ciiu tnXdc Schneider va cac tac gia (2010) Schneider vd cac tdc gid (2010) Buehn va Schneider (2012) Dreher va cdc tac gia (2008) Schneider va cac tac gia (2010) Schneider vd cac tdc gia (2010) Schneider vd cac tde gia (2010) Dreher (2008)
Schneider va cac tdc gia (2010) Schneider va cac tdc gia (2010) Thay thg' nhdng he sd' nay vdo phaong trinh
md hinh cd'u true (1), phaong trinh xde dinh quy md nen KTN:
f 0,124*
- 0 , 4 4 4 *
- 0 , 1 3 1 * JTjt-0.453*.
- 0 , 3 3 8 * JTst + <• '- (10) Tig'p dd ehi sd taong dd'i cua quy md KTN c i n phai dagc chuyen ddi thdnh gia tri tuyet dd'i bdng cde ky thuat kiem chuan. Nhdng gid tri quy md KTN dagc tinh theo nam gd'c rd't cdn thig't eho edc tinh toan ndy, Ke't qua td nghien edu eiia Schneider (2010) dagc sd dung. Trong nghien cdu nay, n a m gd'c la ndm 1999 ddgc sd dung de adc laong quy md KTN cua 162 qud'c gia trong khoang giai doan 1999-2007 eua Schneider, sd dung phaong phdp MIMIC.
Day cung Id nghidn cdu dau tign tdp trung day du cdc qud'c gia Ddng Nam A. Dieu ndy la eo sd de nghien edu nay dagc Iga chgn.
Giles vd Tedds (2002)
Theo ky thuat kiem chuan eua Giles va Tedds (2002), gid tri truyet dd'i cua quy md KTN f}^
tai thdi diem t dagc xde dinh:
B a n g 3: Ke't qua he so' hoi quy Bien nguyen nhan
Thue sua't thuc te TLT do ngan kho' Chl tieu chinh phu Tg do lao dong Tu do kinh doanh Ty le that nghiep
1 0,124 (2,596)***
-0,131 (2,909)***
-0,453 (4,865)***
-0,444 (6.097)***
-0,338 (6,876)***
Bie'n ke't qua Ty le cung tien MO/Ml Nguon thu tir thue Tang tru6ng GDP Thi tru6ng lao dong
1 -0,988 (11,391)***
0,172 (2,129)**
0,768 (9,203)***
Ket qua kiem dinh RMSEA (p-value) Chi-square (p-value) So quan sat Bac tu do
0,037 (0,96) 482,085 (0,00)
160 21 Ghi chu: "•"•* p < 0,01;** p < 0.05, * p < 0.10; Bidn Thuisij6t thiie tg di/ac gta dinh d6ng bien vai quy md KTN nen duoe ed dinh h? so hii quy. Bign ly IS cung tien MO/Ml duac cd dmh theo quy dmh nh&ndang eua mo hinh MIMIC dg thong nhdt voi nhUng nghidn ciiu trUdc ddy Nguon: Ket qua tinh todn ctia nitom tdc gid
edc bien ngoai s i n h cung vdi cdc he sd hdi quy td phaong t r i n h (3).
Vt'- • ^1999 (11)
Trong dd, fjc la chi sd taong ddi quy md KTN tai ndm t ddge tinh theo phdOng phap MIMIC, JJiggg la chi so taong dd'i quy md KTN t a i ndm gd'c 1999 va T/Jggg Id ddc Idgng dga t r e n
Vl du eu t h e , t h e gia tri x, (i=l,..,,6) l i n IdOt la thue' sua't, t g do ngdn khd', chi tieu chinli phu, tg do lao dong, tg do kinh doanh vd ty 1^
thd't nghigp cua Vidt Nam ndm 2013 va ndm gd'e 1999 vdo phaong t r i n h fiO) vdi gia dinK
^ =0 , ta cd: '
KO con<„xj n g a n h a n g
SO'lOJ-Thang 10/2014
NGHIEN Cl/U TRAO DOI « « <
H i n h 2: Quy m o KTN Vi?t N a m giai d o a n 1995-2014 (%GDP)
— • - G-T (2002) D-S (2005) -t Nguon: Kit qud tinh todn cda nhom idc gid
l7„g,(l'W) = 39,9 + 0,124 • 43 - 0,131« 81,4 - 0,453 * 64,1 (12) -0,444*40-0,338-6,74= -14,51
i3Cl'tf) = 35,2 +0,124.75,6- (13)
Td kg't qua phaong trinh (12) va (13), the gid tri ^2013(l^'V) =-24,42 vd 7)i999(KW)=-14,51 vdo phaong trinh (11), vdi 77^959=15,8 (Schneider, 2010). Ta cd:
n2,x2(yN) = ^ r,;,,, - 26,6 (%GDP) (14) Do fjc Id chi sd' taong dd'i quy md KTN tai ndm t nen se k h o n g dagc the hidn trong Hinh 2. Bdn canh dd, gia tri cua Tjt cd the Id daong (+) hay a m (-) tuy vdo he sd hdi quy td phdOng t r i n h (10) vd dd lieu t a i ndm t tdOng dng. Theo cdeh thie't ke' cua phaang phdp, ede gid tri TJt se p h a i ddng nha't ve dd'u (ddong hodc dm) xuyen sud't chudi thdi gian ddgc nghien edu. Do vdy, h i e n tagng gid tri tuydt dd'i eua quy md KTN la mdt sd dm (-) Id dieu khdng the xay ra. Taong tg, dp dung phaong t r i n h (10) va (11) vdi t a t cd md'c thdi gian t vd lan Idgt tdng qude gia, gid tri tuyet ddi quy md KTN cua cdc qudc gia Ddng Nam A.
Dell'Anno vd Schneider (2003) Theo ky thudt kiem chu^n cua Dell'Anno vd Schneider (2003), gid tri tuyet dd'i quy md KTN khdng nhdng phu thudc vdo quy md KTN ctia ndm gd'c md cdn phu thudc vdo ty le thay doi gid tri taong ddi quy md KTN tai n a m trade lien ke vd sg thay ddi gid tri cua: thue' sua't thgc te', tg do ngdn khd, chi tieu chinh phu, tg do lao ddng, tg do kinh doanh, ty le thd't nghiep eua cdc qud'c gia dagc nghien cdu so vdi ndm trade lien ke. Cu the" hdn, td phaong trinh (5), ta ed the xdc dinh gia tri tuyet dd'i quy md KTN ciia Viet Nam tai nam 2013:
'72013 ^ '7:999 + ^2012 + Yq^^qiOlS '^^*
Trong dd, fq vdi (q=l, ,6) ldn lagt la he sd hdi quy cua cdc bie'n thue' sud't thgc te, tg do ngdn khd. chi tieu ehinh phu, tg do lao dpng, tg do kinh doanh, ty Ie thd't nghiep, ^Xqjoi^
la hieu sd cua cdc bien thue sua't, tg do ngdn khd, ehi tieu chinh phii. tg do lao ddng, tg do kinh doanh, ty le thd't nghiep cua Viet Nam ndm 2013 so vdi ndm 2012. Cu the:
nganhangI
S<VHI3»Th.in.' ]0/20i4 I
> » » NGHIEN CUTU TRAO DOI
y,i(,2oi3 = 39,9 + 0,124 • 175,6 - 76,5) - 0.131 - [72,4 - 66.5| - 0.453 .[65,5 -67,31 - 0,444 • [63.9 - 61,1] - 0,338 • [4,6 - 4 , 6 ] Q g ^
= -0,3679
V a i ^ i 9 M = 1S,8 (Schneider, 2 0 1 0 ) , t a c 6 :
^2012 1 3 , 4 _ ^^^^^
L d n l a g t t h e e d c g i d t r i t r e n v d o p h a o n g t r i n h ( 1 5 ) , t a c o :
VzoiiiVN) = 15,8 + 0,8482 - 0,3679 - 16,28 (%GDP)
Bajada vd Schneider (2005)
T h e o k y t h u d t k i e m c h u a n cua B a j a d a v a S c h n e i d e r (2005), gia t r i n h d n d a g c se Id td'c do t h a y doi quy m d K T N Td'c do t h a y d d i quy m d K T N p h u t h u d c v a o td'c dp t h a y doi quy m d K T N t a i n a m gd'c vd s a t h a y ddi g i a t r i c u a t h u e ' s u a t t h g c t e , t g do n g a n k h d , e h i t i e u c h i n h p h u , t g d o l a o d d n g , t a do k i n h d o a n h , t y l e thd't n g h i e p c u a cdc qudc g i a dagc n g h i e n cdu so vdi n a m t r a d e l i e n k e . Vi du cu t h e , t d p h a o n g t r i n h (6), t a cd t h e x d e d i n h quy md K T N cua V i e t N a m t a i n a m 2 0 1 3 :
'12013 = "izooo + 5^013 ^ 'i2ooo + ^ I D O O + Yq^x^ion '^'^^
T h e o p h a o n g t r i n h ( 1 6 ) , t a cd fq Ax^sois = - 0 , 3 6 7 9 ,
"72000 = 1 5 , 6 . Td'c dd t d n g t r a d n g q u y m d K T N t a i n a m gd'c la gloi3= - 0 , 0 1 2 8 2 .
L a n l a g t t h e c d e g i d t r i t r e n v a o p h a o n g t r i n h (17), t a cd:
"niin^iVf^) = 15,6 - 0,3679 - 0,01282 = 15,22 (%GDP)
Tedds (2005)
T h e o k y t h u a t k i e m e h u a n c u a T e d d s ( 2 0 0 5 ) , q u y m d K T N cd l i e n h e r a ' t m a t t h i e ' t v d i td'c dd t a n g t r a d n g G D P , k h d n g n h d n g t d c d p t d n g t r a d n g G D P t a i n d m a d c l a g n g m d c d n td'c d p t d n g t r a d n g G D P k h i s o s d n h v d i n d m gd'c. V i du eu t h e , t d p h a o n g t r i n h ( 7 ) , t a cd t h e x d c d i n h q u y md K T N c u a V i e t N a m t a i n a m 2 0 1 3 :
Vian^ Vm') + 92l - I n -
p h u o n g t r i n h ( 1 2 ) v a ( 1 3 ) , t a cd ij,,,, (vn) = -14,5:
v a t . u CN) = - 2 * . * 2 • D o d o : -24,42 1716
T i r o n g t i l a 2 „ 2 = » . 3 4 6 2 . D o d o I n ^ ; = ' " S S = " " • ° " '
L 4 n l u o t t h a y t h e s o l i e u v a o p h u o n g t r i n b ( 1 8 ) , t a c o :
rj„„(yN) = 15,8 - 0^0995 + 12,16 = 27,86 {'/„QBf)
Dell'Anno vd Schneider (2006)
T h e o k y t h u a t k i e ' m c h u ^ n c u a D e l l A n n o va S c h n e i d e r ( 2 0 0 6 ) , g i a t r i t u y e t do'i c u a quj m o n g n K T N d u g c t a c d 6 n g b d i c a 3 y e u t o : (i) G i a t r i t u o n g d o i K T N y , x , t ; ( i i ) T y 16 g i U a g i a t r i t u y e t d o i , t u o n g d o i cOa K T N t a i n a m g o c ; ( i i i ) To'c d p t a n g t r u d n g G D P . Tii p h u o n g t r i n h ( 1 0 ) , a p d u n g c h o thcfi d i e m t t a i n a m 2 0 1 3 , t a c o :
•0T3 + I ) (19)
T h e o p h a o n g t r i n h ( 1 2 ) v d ( 1 3 ) , t a cd:
9<,^,2auiVN) - iJ2o^3(VN) = - 2 4 , 4 2 v a , ) i , , , = -14,51
L d n l a o t t h a y t h e g i d t r i v a o p h a o n g t r i n h ( 1 9 ) , t a cd t h d x d c d i n h d a g e q u y m o K T N cua V i e t N a m t a i n d m 2 0 1 3 I d :
,3C^W) = • (0,1216 + 1) = 29,83 (%CDP)
T r o n g p h a o n g t r i n h ( 1 8 ) , 772013 d a g e t i n h d a a t r e n e h i s d t a o n g dd'i q u y m d K T N v a G D P .
Quy mo nen kinh te ngdm Viet Nam su!
dung cdc ky thudt kie'm. chudn khdc nhau
N h d m m u c d i c h m i n h h p a s d k h d e b i e t v e gia t r i t u y e t dd'i c u a q u y m d n e n K T N s d dung p h a o n g p h a p M I M I C v a c a c k y t h u a t kiem c h u a n k h a c n h a u , V i e t N a m d a a c s d dung t r o n g n g h i e n c d u n d y . H i n h 2 t h e h i e n quy mo n e n K T N c u a V i e t N a m s d d u n g p h a o n g phdp M I M I C t r o n g g i a i d o a n 1 9 9 5 - 2 0 1 4 , s d d u n g 5 k y t h u a t k i e m chud"n t i e u b i e u n d i t r e n .
M d t s d n h d n x e t d a g c r u t r a t d k e t q u a n a y : - D i e u c h d n g t a n h a n t h a ' y r d n g k y t h u d t k i d n
EQ .. n. nganhang
So I 0 3 « n i , i i i g 10/2014
NGHIEN cufu TRAO DOI « < «
chuan Dell'Anno vd Schneider (2003), Bajada vd Schneider (2005) cd mgt didm taong ddng Id ca 2 ky thudt ndy deu sd dung sg thay ddi gid tri cua cdc bidn dd lieu ndm trade lien ke YqXqi-. Do dd, xu h a d n g thay ddi quy md KTN cua 2 ky thuat ndy c6 p h a n taong t g nhau.
Ben canh dd, chung ta cung n h d n tha'y r a n g 2 ky thudt ndy rd't nhay cam vdi sg thay ddi dd lieu eua cdc bidn sd ddoc sd dung trong phaong phap MIMIC. Td dd, quy md KTN sd dung phddng phdp MIMIC vd cd 2 ky thuat kiem chuan nay t h a d n g ed xu hadng thay ddi rd't dot ngdt. Vi du n h a tradng hgp Viet Nam vdo nhdng ndm 2006, 2010 vd 2011.
Theo edeh t i n h todn quy ddi cua Tedds (2005), khi tdc dp tdng tradng GDP giam di thi quy md KTN cung se giam di, vi sg phu thugc cua kd't qua vdo chi sd' taong do'i quy mo KTN la rd't thd'p. Dieu ndy ed the khdng hgp ly neu dd'i tagng nghidn cdu la nhdng qudc gia dang phdt trien vd td'c dp tdng tradng GDP cd the Id mpt trong nhdng muc tieu kinh td vi md hang dau md chinh phu theo dudi.
Ngodi ra, quy md KTN cdn phu thuoc nhieu vdo cde ye'u td' lao ddng, the che' va xd hdi khde. Do vay, ke't qua ddc lagng td ky thuat kiem chudn nay da ldm md di y nghia td cdc bien sd' khdc trong md hinh dinh lagng Theo nhdm tdc gia, ky thuat ndy khdng phu hop de xde dinh quy md KTN tai cdc qud'c gia dang phdt trien ndi ehung vd Viet Nam ndi rieng.
- Xu hadng thay ddi quy md KTN eua Viet Nam dagc adc lagng td 2 ky t h u d t kiem chuan Giles vd Tedds (2002), Dell'Anno vd Schneider (2006) la taong ddng vdi nhau Mde du adc laong td Dell'Anno vd Schneider (2006) cao hon Giles vd Tedds (2002), nhang dieu ndy hodn todn cd the giai thieh dagc vi Dell'Anno vd Schneider (2006) ed t h e m sg ddng gdp bdi tdc dd t d n g t r a d n g GDP, didu ndy phii hop vdi n e n t a n g ly thuydt v l KTN rdng quy md n e n KTN se cd mdi quan he vdi quy md nen kinh te chinh thdc. Ben eanh dd, phdOng phdp Dell'Anno vd Schneider (2006) phu hop hon Tedds (2005) bdi vi quy md KTN dage xde dinh bdi Dell'Anno
vd Schneider (2006) k h d n g qua phu thudc vao td'c dp t d n g t r d d n g GDP. Do dd, phaong phdp Dell'Anno va Schneider (2006) cung se phu hgp hon de xdc dinh quy md KTN edc qud'c gia dang p h d t t r i e n .
K e t l u a n
KTN dang tdn tai n h a mdt thgc te' cua cudc sd'ng t r e n todn the' gidi, bat ke trinh dp phdt trien eua tdng qud'c gia. Trong giai doan hien nay, quy md n e n KTN d cdc qud'c gia dang cd da'u hieu ngay cdng phdt trien. Dieu ndy gdy ra nhdng tdc ddng ldn de'n sg van ddng cua n i n kinh te chinh thdc. Cde chinh sdch kinh td VI md dagc xem la can thie't nham muc dich h a n che' sg phdt trien cua n i n KTN. De ban hdnh dage nhdng chinh sdeh kinh te' vi md phu hgp, viee do ladng quy md nen KTN la thgc sg cdn thie't. Id dieu kien tien quye't de hinh t h a n h cde chinh sdch phu hop.
Nghien cdu ndy ke't luan rang sd dgng phgong phap MIMIC trong viec xdc dinh quy md nen KTN cho Viet Nam vd ede qud'c gia khde thudc ASEAN, hay cd the ddOc md rdng cho td't ca cdc qud'c gia dang phdt trien Id phu hgp. Tuy nhien, phaong phdp MIMIC nay khdng nen daoc xem la phaong phdp duy nhd't. Sg ke't hap vdi cdc phaong phdp khdc dagc xem Id phu hgp nhdm dam bao do tin cay cao hon trong cdc ke't qua dinh laong,
Mgt khi phaong phdp MIMIC dagc sd dung, cdc ky t h u a t kiem chud'n cd the dagc sd dung mdt cdeh chpn loc. Trong td't cd edc phaong phdp kidm chuan daoc sd dung nhdm mue dich quy ddi gid tri taong dd'i, dagc xac dmh td phaong phdp MIMIC, sang gid tri tuyet dd'i ciia quy md KTN cho Viet Nam, phaong phdp kiem chud'n d l nghi bdi DellAnno vd Schneider (2006) la phu hgp nha't. Phaong phdp ndy cd xem xet ddn sg tdng tradng ciia n i n kinh td chinh thdc de'n quy md cua nen KTN, cung nhd tdc ddng cua cdc yeu td vi md trong n i n kinh te (daoc sd dung trong phaong phdp MIMIC).
in.,i,. ngan hang BN
S(Yl03*Thdn}i 10/2014 U J
» > » NGHIEN cufu TRAO DOI
Ke't qua dinh Idgng ehi ra rdng quy md ndn biet, trong giai doan 2005-2006, quy md ne KTN d Viet Nam cd xu hadng gia tdng trong KTN cua Viet Nam dao ddng trong khoang ti sud't giai doan nghien cdu (1995-2014). Dac 25-30% quy md ndn k i n h td chinh thdc"
Tai l i e u t h a m k h a o
1 Bajda, C. and Schneider, F. (2005). The Shadow Economies of the Asia-Pacific. Pacific Economic Review, 10(3), pp. 379-401 2 Buehn, A. and Schneider, F. (2012) Corruption and the shadow economy: like oil and vinegar, like water and fire? Int Ten Public Finance (2012) 19: pp. 172-194.
3. CEACR (2011). Comments of the Committee of Experts an the Application of Conventions and Recommendations. Geneva: ILO.
4- Dell'Anno, R and Schneider. F. (2003). The Shadow Economy of Italy and other OECD Countries: What Do We Know? Linz University of Linz, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper. Journal of Public Finance and Public Choice, 2005.
5 Dell'Anno, R and Schneider, F (2006). Estimating the Underground Economy by Using MIMIC Models A Response to T Breusch s critique. Z,m2 t/wioersKy o / i m s . Department o/" Economics. Working Paper No 0607
6. Dreher, ft., Kotsogiannis, C. & McCorriston, S (2008). How do institutions affect corruption and the shadow economy?
International Tax and Public Finance
7. Feige, E. L. (1986) A Re-Examination of the Underground Economy in the United States. IMP Staff Papers, 33{4). Supplement to Public Finance! Finances Publiques, 49: pp 119-136.
8. Feige, E., L. (1989) The Underground Economies. Tax Evasion and Information Distortion. Cambridge: Cambridge University.
9. Friedman, E., Johnson, S-, Kaufmann. D, and Zoido-Lobatdn, P. (1999), Dodging the Grabbing Hand The Determinants of Unofficial Activity in 69 Countries. World Bank Discussion Paper.
10. Giles. D E. A, and Tedds, L. M (2002). Taxes and the Canadian Underground Economy Canadian Tax Foundation: Toronto.
11. Greenidge. K , Holder. C. and Mayers, S. (2009) Estimating the size of the informal economy in Barbados. Business, Finance 6 Economics m Emerging Economies, 4(1), pp 196-227.
12. Johnson, S., Kaufmann, D and Shleifer. (1997) The unofficial economy in transition, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2. pp 159-221
13. Loayza. N, V (1996), The Economics of the Informal Sector A Simple Model and Some Empirical Evidence from Latin America, Carnegie-Rochester Conf Series Public Policy, 45, pp 129-62
14. Mogensen, G. V , Kvist. H K,. K#rmendi. E. and Pedersen. S. (1995). The Shadow Economy in Denmark 1994: Measurement and Results, Study No 3, Rockwool Foundation Research Unit, Copenhagen.
15. OECD (2002). Measuring the Non-Observed Economy. OECD Publication 2002
16 Schneider (2010) The Influence of the economic crisis on the underground economy in Germany and the other OECD countries.
Review of Law and Economics, 6(3), pp 441-468.
17, Schneider, P, and E„,te, D„ H (2000) Shadow Economies - S,^e, Causes, and Consequeneee, Journol cf Economic Lit.ratur,, 38(1). 77-114
18 Schne.der, P.. Buehn, A and Montenegro, C E (2010). Shadow Economies All over the World - New Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007, World Bonk. Policy Raeo,-ch Working Paper 5356,
19, Smrth. P. (1994). Assessing the S i „ of the Underground Economy: The Canad.an Statistical Perspectives Conodian be Obscri-ci, Cat No. 11-010, 3 16-33, at 3.18.
20 Tan.,. V. (1999). Uses and Abuses of Esl.mates of the Underground Economy, Econ. J , 109 456, pp 338-40 21 Tedds, L. M. (2005). The Underground Economy m Canada MPRA Paper No. 4229, posted 24. J u l , 2007.
22. Vien Khoa hpc Thong ke (2010) Tdng ,„o„ oc kit dud itcu tra IhSng tl khu ouc kmh t'i ph, chink thdc 6 Vict Nam ,c nJf so khnyln nghi cc ,nd„ ly thong tin Ihi truing lao idng „d phdt trtcn ngaSn nhdn ldc. Vijt Nam- Vien Khoa hoc Thong ke
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Thong tin tac gia:
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Cdc nghiin ciiu dugc cdng bd trin cdc tap chi qudc te nhU: Journal of Economic Survey, Journal of Asia Pacific Economies, International Journal of Economies and Law, Rwista di dirittofinanziario e scienzadellefinanze. Encyclopedia of Public Policy va dtigc trinh bdy tai Hoi thdo khoa hgc d nhiiu qudc gia trin the gidi bao g6m Uc, Nhat, My, Anh, It, Tdy Ban Nha vd Vi?t Nam; cdc nghien ciiu dugc cdng bd trin cdc tap chi trong nuac nhu Tap chi Phdt trien Kinh te. Tap chi Kinh te vd Phdt tnin, Tap chi Khoa hgc Trudng Bai hoc Md TP.HCM, Tgp chi Cdng nghe Ngdn hang.
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Cdc nghiin ciiu ditgc edng bd trin tgp chi qudc ti International Journal of Economics and Finance vd dUoc trinh bay tai Asia-Pacific Business Conference 2014: Free Trade Agreements and Regional Integration in East Asia.
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