NGHrEN CUu TRAO DOI « < «
V KIEM fijNH LY THUYET TRAT TlT PHAN HANG VE CGT CAU VON THONG QUA PHAN TICH TLT CAC CONG TY VN30
Ngay nhan: 04/10/2014 NgSy nh§n lai: 17/3/2015 Ng^y duy^t dSng: 10/4/2015 Ma s6': 4-15-55
Le Thanh Ngoc (*) Nguyin Doan Quoc Anh (**)
Tom tat: Bdi viit nghien cdu mdc do dnh hudng cua thdm hut tdi chinh din quyit dinh phdt hdnh ng mdi cua cdng ty thuoc nhdm VN30 tren sdn chdng khodn TP.HCM, giai doan 2008-2012. Ngodi ra, cdc nhdn td cdu thdnh nin thdm hut tdi chinh la cd tdc, thay ddi vdn lUu dgng, ddu tu rdng vd lai nhudn sau thui cung dUgc xem xet trong moi quan he din quyit dinh phdt hdnh ng cua cdng ty. Sd dung phuang phdp phdn tich tdc dgng cd dinh (FEM) vd phuang phdp phdn tich tdc ddng ngdu nhiin (REM) cho dd lieu bdng, nghien cUu tim thdy thay ddi lai nhudn sau thui dnh hudng nhieu nhd't din quyit dinh vay ng, sau do la thay ddi vd'n lUu dgng vd thay ddi vd'n ddu tu rdng.
Kit qud ndy cung cap bdng chdng vi sU phu hgp cua ly thuyet trtit tU phdn hang (LTTTPH) trong viec gidi thich quyit dinh vay ng cua cdc cong ty tren sdn chdng khodn TP.HCM.
TH khoa: Ng vay, ly thuyet trat tu phdn hang, ca cdu vdn, cong ty VN30.
D a t v a n d e
Ly thuyet v l ca c^'u vo'n h i e n dai daac Modigliani va Miller dUa ra vao n a m 1958, sau dd dtrac nhieu n h a kinh te' bo sung, phat tri^'n v£i phSn t h ^ n h n h i l u n h d n h ty thuye't kh^c nhau, trong dd cd h a i ly thuye't nd'i tig'ng 14 ly thuye't d^nh d6'i {trade-off theory) v^ LTTTPH (pecking order theory).
Cdc ly thuye't ndy da t a o n e n nhiJng t r a n h luan xung quanh cac quan d i e m ly luSn va tinh hieu qua lien quan din quye't dinh co cau v6'n ciia cdng ty. T r e n the' gidi da cd mot so n g h i e n cii'u thuc n g h i e m ve cac ly thuye't t r e n va ke't qua difa de'n nhilng bSng chitng k h d n g gio'ng nhau. Shyam-Sunder va Myers (1999) tim tha'y b a n g chiTng ting ho LTTTPH hon la ly thuye't d a n h doi. NgUOc lai, Fama v4 French (2002) tim t h a y bSng chtTng cd t h i e n hudng chd'ng l a i ca hai ly thuye't. F r a n k vd Goyal (2003) khdng tim t h a y bSng chdng cd lign quan vdi LTTTPH, d a c bi^t la dfi'i vdi cdc cong ty n h o . T a i
Viet Nam, cac chu d l n g h i e n ci?u v l co cau von hien t a i chu ye'u chi di-fng lai d miJc do kiem t r a cac n h a n to' a n h hiTdng de'n cau triic vo'n cua cdng ty. Bai vie't n a y d a n h gid a n h hirdng cua cac n h a n td' cau t h a n h t h a m h u t t a i chinh de'n quy§'t dinh p h d t h a n h no mdi cua cong ty, qua dd cung cap b a n g chdng ve sif phu h o p cua LTTTPH v l ca cau von doi vdi cac cdng ty niSm ye't t r e n s a n chdng khoan TP.HCM.
Cof sd ly t h u y e ' t
Ly thuyet trat tUphdn hang Modilligani va Miller (MM) (1958) d\ia ra gia dinh trong t h i trtfdng vo'n hoan hao, cdng ty cd rui ro kinh doanh gid'ng nhau va loi nhuan ky vong h a n g ndm gid'ng nhau t h i phai cd tong gia tri bdng nhau bd't chap ca'u true vd'n. Gia dinh thi trifdng vo'n hoan hao difoc d a t trong dieu kien khdng cd thue. Tuy nhien, khi ndi long dieu kien nay, tdc la xet congnghr tigaii Hatig n i Sol09*Thang4/2015liiiJ
» > » NGHIEN CUTU TRAO DOI
trong moi tri/dng cd thue thu nhap, thi vific sd dung ng se ldm tdng gid tri cong ty:
Vg = Vu + TD (1)
Gid tri cdng ty sd dung nd bdng gid tri cdng ty khdng sd dung na cdng vdi khodn ldi td vigc sd dung ng. Nhu" vay, theo md hinh thue' MM (1963) c^u true vd'n cd li^n quan de'n gid tri cua cdng ty. Sd dung ng cdng cao thi gid tri cdng ty cdng tdng vd gia tdng td'i da khi cdng ty dugc tdi trg 100% ng.
Mot trong cdc gi^ thuyet cua md hinh MM la cdc nha dau td vd nhd quan tri cd cung thdng tin ve t r i i n vgng tUcmg lai cua cong ty. Tuy nhien, tren thgc te so vdi cdc nha dau t\X ben ngodi, cdc nhd qudn tri thudng co thdng tin day dd hon vl trien vong tucfng lai khie'n cho ngu6n vd'n bgn ngodi (ng mdi vd c6 phan mdi) ludn d^t han so vdi ngudn vd'n noi bo (Igi nhudn gid lai). Myers vd Mailuf (1984) cho rang, neu cdng ty tdi trg cho mdt dg dn bang cdch phdt hdnh chdng khodn mdi thi cdc chdng khoan ndy se bi ddnh gid tha'p. Bdi vi cdc nha quan 1^ khdng the truyin dat thdng tin mot each ddng tin cdy du d l cdc nhd dau ta nhin thay dugc gid tri thgc sd cua ca hoi dau ttr. Sg Iga chon do'i nghich khie'n cdc nhd dau tii luon ddi hdi mdt ph^n bu rui ro cao hon vd khie'n cho chi phi huy dong vd'n tdng cao. Hien tugng nay goi Id sd bd't cdn xdng thdng tin.
Vi nhdng tdc ddng dd, mot t r d t tU phan hang difgc de xua't:
- Cdc cdng ty thich tai trg ngi bd (sd dung Igi nhud:n gid lai).
hdi diu tu), cdc cong ty chi can nguda tdi trg ben ngodi td ng hoSc vo'n co phan mdi (Shyam-Sunder vd Myers, 1999). Theo Frank vd Goyal (2003), tdng ng mdi va von cd' phdn mdi trong ndm se can b a n g vdi mdc thdm h u t tdi chinh cua ndm dd:
ATD„+ ATE., = DEF,, (2) Vdi ATDjj Id ng mdi p h d t h a n h cua cdng ty i ndm t, ATE., la vd'n cd' p h a n mdi p h d t hdnh cdng ty i ndm t vd DEF^^^ Id mdc thdm hut tdi chinh cdng ty i t r o n g ndm t.
Md: D E F . • DIV;, I , + A N W C , - C . (3) Vdi DIVjj^ la cd tdc chi tra b d n g t i e n m a t cua cdng ty i ndm t; Ij^ la dau t u rdng cua cdng ty i trong ndm t vd dugc t i n h b ^ n g tdi sdn ddi h a n ndm t t r d n a m t - 1 ; ANWCj^ thay dd'i vd'n lUu ddng trong ndm t. Tinh b a n g vd'n luu ddng ndm t t r d vd'n lUu ddng n a m t - 1 ; C^. la Igi nhudn sau thue' va lai vay cua cdng ty i ndm t.
Td cdng t h d c (2), cdng ty se cd t i n h t r a n g t h d m h u t t d i c h i n h khi DEF>0 vd t h d n g du t a i c h i n h khi D E F < 0 . Theo l a p ludn cua LTTTPH, khi cong ty c a n ngudn tai t r g b e n ngodi t h i t d i t r g h o a n t o d n bdng ng se la sU lUa chgn h g p ly nhd't, do dd ATEjj. se b d n g k h o n g . Vi v a y , cd t h e dung b i e n t h d m h u t t d i c h i n h DEF de giai thich cho t h a y doi t r o n g ng vay cua cac cdng ty.
N h l m k h ^ c p h u c sU k h a c n h a u v l quy md cong ty, tdc gia chia bie'n ng mdi phdt h d n h ATD;^ vd t h d m h u t t a i chinh D E F , cho td'ng t d i s a n .
- Khi cdng ty gdp tinh t r a n g t h a m h u t vd Phuang t r i n h mdi dugc viet:
cin ngudn tdi trg b^n ngodi, cdng ty se uu ti§n phdt hdnh no trUdc, sau dd la nhdng chdng khodn nhu t r a i phi§'u chuyen ddi va vd'n cd phan la ngudn tai trg cud'i cung.
ATDA,^ = Yo + YjDEFA^^ + e.^
Khi xay ra sU m a t can bang gida ddng tien vdo so vdi ddng tien ra (cd tdc va cdc co
Trong dd: ATDAj^ la ng mdi phdt h d n h t r e n tdng tdi san cua cong ty i ndm t, D E F A Id mdc t h a m hut tai chinh t r e n tone ta; ' '
5 ^Ai san cua cdng ty i ndm t.
p p i Congnghe n ^ a H K a n ^
U J sd 10^ • Thang 4/201S
NGHIEN CtfU TRAO 001 « « <
Td phuang t r i n h (2) vd (3) ta cung cd the viet dudi dang:
ATDA.^ = Yo ^ YiDIVA, + y^lA,, + YgANWCA ^
- y^^K-^ % (5) Trong dd: DIVAj^, lAj^, ANWCA^^, CAj^ lan
lugt la cdc ty le: cd tdc t r e n tdng tai san, dau tu rdng tren tdng tdi san, thay ddi vdn luu ddng tr§n tdng tdi san, Igi nhudn sau thue' vd ldi vay trgn tdng tdi san cua cdng ty i ndm t.
Theo LTTTPH, kdt qua ki vgng cua phuang trinh (4) Id YQ = 0 vd YI = 1> vd cua phuang trinh (5) la Yo = "^ ^^ Ti = 'V2 = Y3 ^ 74 =1- Cd nghia Id t h a m h u t tdi chinh se hodn todn duoc tdi trg bdng no mdi phdt h d n h . Cdc nghiin ciiu thUc nghiem ve ly thuyet trat tii phdn hang
Tdc gid Shyam-Sunder vd Myer (1999) kiem dinh LTTTPH vd ddnh ddi tai thi trudng My. M6 hinh kiem dinh LTTTPH la hdi quy bien ng phat h d n h cua cong ty vdi bie'n mdc do t h a m hut tdi chinh va du doan he s6' hdi quy ndy la mdt (tdc Id cdng ty thdm h u t bao nhieu thi se p h a t h a n h ng bay nhieu). Dilu ndy ho trg cho LTTTPH. Tuy nhien, trong todn bd nghi§n cdu, tac gia da cho rdng ly thuye't ddnh ddi giai thich td't han cho h d n h vi phdt hdnh ng mdi so vdi LTTTPH.
Frank vd Goyal (2003) khao sat LTTTPH tai thi trUdng My va cho rdng nghien cdu Shyam-Sunder va Myer da chgn mau chu ydu la cdc cdng ty Idn. Hg chdng minh nhdn xet cua minh t r e n nen t a n g LTTTPH khdng giai thich dugc n h i l u dd'i vdi cdng ty nhd, vi van dl sU lUa chgn do'i nghich lam cdc cdng ty nay phai chiu dUng chi phi cao khi phdt hdnh ng, do dd viec tdng vd'n bdng cd p h a n mdi giai thich dugc nhieu han cho tinh hinh t h a m hut tdi chinh.
Sd dung md hinh cua Shyam-Sunder va Myers (1999), Adedeji (2002) kiem dinh LTTTPH tai
Anh. Ke't qua chi ra rdng ng mdi khong cd mo'i quan he mdt - mot vdi bie'n t h a m hut tai chinh nhu ly thuye't ndy de nghi md ng mdi phdt hdnh chi chiem 22% lugng t h a m hut tai chinh. Sau dd, Adedeji kidm dinh lai bang each chi quan tdm ddn trudng hgp thdm hut, neu bie'n t h a m h u t cd gid tri am (tdc Id dang t h d n g du) thi se cho bdng gia tri khdng. Dilu ndy ldm cho he sd eua bie'n thdm hut tdng td 22% len 39%.
Tai Viet Nam, h i e n da cd mdt sd' nghign cdu ve LTTTPH. Nghien edu cua Le Van Minh Trien (2013) ve kiem dinh LTTTPH vd ly thuyg't d d n h ddi cho cdc cdng ty trong n g a n h san xua't thUc pham - dd ud'ng - thud'c, ng vay ehi ddm bao k h o a n g 0,8%
mdc do t h a m h u t t a i chinh ngn md'i quan he gida LTTTPH vd quyg't dinh sd dung ng vay cua n g d n h Id tuang dd'i ye'u. Nghien cdu cua Vd Hdng Ddc vd Trdn Nguyln Minh Anh (2015) thUe hien trgn dd lieu cua 236 cdng ty nigm yg't trgn Sd Giao dich chdng khodn TP.HCM trong giai doan 2008-2013, ket qua cho t h a y LTTTPH chUa giai thich dugc quye't dinh lUa chon hinh thdc t a n g vd'n cua cdc edng ty t a i Viet Nam. Mat khae, khi lugng h d a cac ye'u td' a n h hudng de'n lugng nd dugc p h a t h a n h cua cdc cdng ty, cac p h a t hien chi ra rdng, ty Ig ng muc tieu, ty sd' thi gia t r e n t h u gia, Igi nhuan hoat dgng va doanh thu cd tdc ddng dg'n lugng ng duac phdt h a n h eua cong ty Le D a t Chi (2013) kiem dinh nhdng n h a n to' a n h hudng de'n ca'u true no cua cdc cdng ty d Vigt Nam giai doan 2007-2010. Nghign edu tim tha'y b a n g chdng ung hg LTTTPH trong viec hoach dinh ca'u true vd'n cua cac n h a quan tri tdi chinh. NhU vay, p h a n Idn cac nghien edu thuc nghiem v l LTTTPH khdng cd sU thd'ng n h a t ve ke't qua. Mot so' nghien cdu tim tha'y bdng chdng ung hg LTTTPH, trong khi dd mdt so' nghien cdu tim tha'y bdng chdng chd'ng lai ly thuyg't nay. Dilu ndy cung hdm y la LTTTPH chi giai thich duac quye't dinh vay ng cua doanh nghiep trong nhdng d i l u kien nha't dinh.
Congngh l l ^ a n 113119 So 109-Thane 4/2(1
m
NGHIEN CCTU TRAO DOI
DH l i ^ u v a phitcfng p h a p n g h i e n cdu DiZ lieu nghien cdu
Nghien cdu t a p trung p h a n tich bdng chdng ve su phu hgp cua LTTTPH cho viee giai thich quye't dinh vay ng n h d m tai trg cho thdm hut tdi chinh cua cdc cdng ty thude linh vUe san xua't va dich vu - thuang mai.
Do dd, sau khi loai bd eae edng ty trong Ilnh vUc tdi chinh, bao hiem vd nhdng edng ty khdng cd d^y du thdng tin td ndm 2008, mau nghien cdu cdn lai 20 cdng ty duge chgn lgc td nhdm VN30 cac cdng ty niem ydt t r e n sdn chdng khoan TP.HCM. Dd lieu phan tich dang bang vdi chiiu khdng gian bao gdm 20 cdng ty va chieu thdi gian td ndm 2008-2012.
tich thong qua ky t h u a t bien gia. Nhu vay, Udc lugng a n h hudng cd dinh cung dugc xem nhu Id phuang phdp binh phuong be nhd't cd chda bie'n gia bdi vi de cho phep xudt hign cdc he so' chan khdc nhau cho mdi thuc thd thi mdi thUe the phai bao gdm 1 bie'n gia.
Nhuge diem cua md hinh FEM la giam bac tu do di rd't nhieu do phai dua them bien gia vdo, dg xdy ra hien tUong da cong tuye'n hodc vi pham gia thiet u^^ ~ N (O.a^), Gujaranti (2004).
Ne'u nhdng dac die'm rieng biet (khdng ddi theo thdi gian) Id dan nha't dd'i vdi mdt thuc the vd khong tUdng quan vdi ddc diem cda cdc thuc the khdc, mo hinh FEM se khdng cdn thich hgp vd phuang phdp md hinh anh hudng ngdu nhien - REM se dugc sd dung de Udc lugng mo'i quan he dd.
Phiiang phdp nghien ciiu
Bdi vig't sd dung dd lieu bang. Md hinh ban d^u dugc de xud't:
ATDA^^ = Yo + YiDIVA^j -^ YglA^^ -i- Yg ANWCA;^
- Y4CAij -h Ej^ ' (5) Viec sd dung phUdng phdp OLS vdi gia dinh
khong cd ddn vi chgo hodc thdi k^ ddc biet nao anh hudng dg'n edc he so' trong md hinh thudng khd xay ra trong thUc td va de dan de'n hien tUdng tU tUdng quan. De khdc phuc ban che ndy, bdi viet sd dung ket hgp phuang phdp anh hUdng cd' dinh (FEM) vd phuang phdp anh hudng ngdu nhien (REM).
Md hinh anh hudng cd' dinh nhU sau:
ATDAjj = OQ -H a^D^j + ttgDg, +..+ a„D^ + PiDIVA^^
+ pglA^, -H PaANWCA;, - P4CA t+ % (6) Thuat ngd "cdc a n h hudng cd dinh" dugc sd dung Id do: cho du tung do gd'c cd the khac nhau dd'i vdi cdc cong ty nhUng tung do gd'c mdi edng ty khdng ddi theo thdi gian, nghia Id bd't bie'n theo thdi gian. Su khdc nhau eua tung do gd'c cua cdc cdng ty cd the dugc phdn
Md hinh tac dong ngdu nhien (Random eiTects model):
ATDAj^ = Yo. + YiDIVAj^ + y^lA.^, + y^ ANWCA^,.
-Y4CAi^+eit (7) He sd' true tung trong phUdng trinh t r e n
dugc phan tich t h a n h 2 phdn:
Toi = To + 5j
Vig't lai phuang t r i n h (7) nhU sau:
ATDA^^ = Yo + YiDIVA^^ + YglAj^ + Yg ANWCA^^
- YgCA^^ + Wjj (8) Didm khac nhau c a b a n gida md hinh FEM vd
REM la md hinh FEM se cd tdng he sd true tung khdc nhau cho tdng ddn vi cheo, trong khi md hinh t a c dgng ngau nhign (REM) chi ed mot gid tri he so' true tung duy nhd't va he sd' ndy bdng vdi gid tri trung binh cua td't cd cdc dan vi cheo quan sdt, sU khdc biet cua cde dan vi cheo chda dung trong t h d n h phan sai so' ngdu n h i e n Wj^..
De lUa chgn md hinh phu hgp, bai viet sd dung kidm dinh Hausman vdi gia thie't:
m -or ngan hang
S(T 109'Thing 4/2015
NGHIEN CUfU TRAO DOI <««
^Q- Ude lugng md hinh FEM vd md hinh REM khdng khdc nhau. (Prob>X^)<a (0.05);
bdc bo HQ.
Ne'u bdc bd H^ thi ke't luan md hinh a n h hudng ngSu n h i e n khdng phu hdp vd trong trudng hdp n a y FEM dugc lua chgn sd dung, cdn ngugc lai cha'p n h d n H^ thi mo hinh REM dugc sd dung.
Ke't qua n g h i e n cifu
Thong ke m.6 td cdc bien
Kit qua Bdng 1 p h a n a n h ty le cdc chi tieu trgn tdng tdi san, cu t h e :
- Tham hut t a i chinh trung binh (DEFAj.) cua cdc cdng ty thudc VN30 la 5,14%. Mdc cao nhd't Id 48,23% thuoc v l cdng ty bd't ddng san OGC ndm 2009, mdc t h a m hut t a i ehinh tich eUc nha't Id dm 23,6% cua cdng ty thUe pham SBT ndm 2011,
- Ti le ng mdi phdt h a n h trung binh (ATDA^) hdng ndm la 3,95%. Trong dd, mdc phdt h a n h Idn nhd't tdng dd'n 41,31% vd giam Idn nhd't Id -16,09%.
- Lgi n h u a n sau thue' t r u n g binh (CA^) ciia cac cdng ty VN30 d a t 11,4%, tuang dd'i eao.
Trong do, cdng ty d a t cao nhd't len den 50% (DRC) do cd lgi n h u a n t a n g dot bie'n, khdng cd cdng ty n a o ghi n h a n 16 trong thdi gian nay.
- Mdc chia cd tdc trung binh bdng tien mat (DIVAj) cua cdng ty dat mdc 3,7% so vdi tdng tai san vd ti le ed tde cao nha't dat 17,8%.
- Chi sd diu tu trung binh (lA^) Id 9,5%. Ca biet mdc dau tU Idn nha't tdng 91,45% (cdng ty REE ndm 2009} va mdc cdt giam dau tu thd'p nha't la -7,78%.
- Chi sd' thay ddi vd'n luu ddng d mdc trung binh (ANWCAj) chi la 5,7%, cao nhd't la 33,5% va thap nhd't la -27,2%.
Ma tran tiiang quan giUa cdc bien Bang 2 eho tha'y, ng mdi phat hdnh ed md'i tuang quan nghich vdi lgi nhuan sau thue' vd cd tdc. NgUdc lai ng mdi phdt h d n h lai thudn chieu vdi bie'n t h a m h u t tai chinh, dau tu rdng va bie'n thay ddi vd'n luu ddng.
Dilu ndy dugc gidi thich bdi khi thdm hut B a n g 1: Tom t ^ t mo t a t h d n g ke cac bidn
Trung binh Trung VI Gia tri t6'i thieu Gi^ t n to'i da
\'gu6tt • Ket qud trich xud
B a n g 2; M
CA, DEFA, DIVA, lA, ATDA, ANWCA,
CA, 0,1138 0,0949 0,5009 0,0004 rti' Euiews
3 t r ^ n tuftfng CA,
1 -0,3643 0,5310 -0,0932 -0,2908 0,3461
DEFA, 0,0514 0,0148 0,4823 -0,2361
q u a n g i i f a DEFA,
1 -0,2707 0,4353 0,7782 0,2653
DIVA, 0,0366 0,0238 0,1779 -5,18E-05
c a c b i e n g i a DIVA,
1 -0,2548 -0,2769 0,0386
I ^ 0,0951 0,0712 0,9145 -0,0778
1 t h i c h v a nc lA,
1 0,3664 -0,0758
ATDA, 0,0395 0,0100 0,4132 -0,1609
ANWCA, 0,0571 0,0537 0,3346 -0,2722
i m d i p h a t h a n h ATDA,
1 0,2576
ANWCA,
1 Wgmn Ket quel trich xudt ti/ Eviews
J['
Congnghe R Q a n H a n g p n
S6'109'Thang 4/2015 l i j
» » > NGHIEN ClJfU TRAO BOI
tdi ehinh tdng thi cdng ty phai tdng cudng vay ng, trong khi dd thi lgi nhuan sau thue' tdng se giam thdm hut tai chinh vd giam ng vay. Md'i tuang quan gida big'n ng phdt h a n h mdi (ATDAt) vd t h a m h u t tdi chinh (DEFAj) khd rd rdng (0,7782).
Ket qud hoi quy
Bang 3: Tac dpng cua bie'n DEFA de'n ATDA Bien/roo hinh
C DEFA R^
R^ dieu chinh Dusbin Watson
OLS 0,0111 0,5509-*
0,6057 0,6006 1,7854
FEIM 0,0089 0,5955**
0,7090 0,6104 2,4419
REM 0,0110 0,5534"*
0,6039 0,5988 1,8299 Ghi chu- • • , " • / » ' Idn luat co y nghia vai muc 10%. S%,1%
Ngudn: Ket qud trich xudt tit Eviews
Kidm dinh Hausman cho tha'y gia tri p (P-value) la 0,3145>0,05 nen gia t h i e t H^ dugc cha'p nhdn vd md hinh REM dugc uu tien sd dung.
Theo dd, Y =0 (khdng cd y nghia thd'ng kg) vd Y 0,5534. Nhu vay cd the thay bie'n tham hut tdi chinh cd a n h hudng rd rang de'n quye't dinh vay ng cua cdng ty vdi mdc giai
thich la 59,88%. Ket qua cho tha'y mdi tuang quan gida t h a m h u t t a i chinh vd ng phdt h d n h mdi theo phuang t r i n h :
ATDA = 0,5534*DEFA (9) Khi mdc t h a m h u t tdi chinh tdng hodc giara 1% thi cdng ty se quyet dinh t d n g hodc giam nd mdi thgm 0,55%.
So sdnh vdi mot sd nghign cdu khdc (Bang 4), k d t qua eua n g h i e n cdu ndy cd p h ^ n phd hgp vdi p h d t h i e n eua F r a n k va Goyal (2002), vdi he sd' cua bie'n t h a m h u t tai chinh Id 0,748 so vdi 0,5534 vd he sd C cua n g h i e n edu F r a n k vd Goyal cung g^n nhu bdng 0.
De di vao ehi tiet hdn cdc bie'n a n h hudng de'n quyg't dinh phdt h d n h ng cua cdng ty, chdng ta tig'p tuc kiem dinh phUdng trinh (5).
Theo ket qua Bang 5 thi bien co tdc (DIVAj) khdng cd -^ nghia n e n ta se loai big'n nay vd chay lai md hinh vdi 3 bie'n giai thich lA^, ANWCA,, CA,.
Bang 4: So s a n h vdi mot so n g h i e n cu'u ve LTTTPH Bien/mo iiinh
C DEFA R dieu chinh
Frank va Goyal (2003) 0,0010*
0,7480*'*
0,7080
Vo Hong DLTC va T r a n Nguyln M m h Anh 12015)
0,2538*
0,1820*
0,4050
Le Van Minh Trien (2013) 0,4580**'
0,0084**
0,8900
Nghien ciju n&y
0,0110 0,5534-**
0,5988 Ghi chii- *,**,'^'-" Idn luat co y nghi
Nguon: Tdng hap cila cdc tdc gia
10% 5%,1%
Bang 5: Tac dong cac bie'n DIVAt, lA^, ANWCA^, CA^ de'n ATDA B i e n / m o h i n h
C DIVA, lA, ANWCA, CA, R' R~ dieu chinh Dusbin Watson
OLS 0 , 0 4 0 4 "
0,0446 0,2359***
0,3664*«>
-0,4037"**
0,3596 0,3255 1,3916
FEIVI 0,0652***
0,2476 0,2678>'**
0,5484***
-0,8043"">
0,6356 0,4869 2,4288
R E M 0,0427-**
0,1203 0,2395*<*
0 , 4 0 8 9 * "
-0,4726***
0,3759 0,3426 1,5639
E l Ong nghe n Q B n Hcing
J.S.V 109 •Thing 4/2015
NGHIEN CUfU TRAO DOI <««
B a n g 6: T a c d p n g c a c b i e n l A , , A N W C A , , C A , d e n A T D A B i e n / m o h i n h
C I ^ ANWCA, CA, R»
R^ dieu chinh Dusbin Watson
O L S 0.0412**' 0,2331 0,3633***
-0,3923—"
0,3593 0,3341 1,3953
FEM 0,0738"**
0,2530"**
0,5293>*"
-0,7789"""
0,6310 0,4885 2,3733
R E M 0,0447*"*
0,2318**"
0,3967***
-0,4392*"*
0,3725 0,3478 1,5513 Ghi chd: ",••,*'" Idn luat c6 y nghia udi miic 10%, 5%,1%
Ngudn- Kit Qud trich xudt tit Eviews
Kiem dinh Hausman eho thd'y gid tri p (P-value) Id 0,0022<0,05 n e n md hinh FEM dugc chgn.
Khi chay nhi^u bie'n thi md hinh cho kg't qua R = 48,85%, cde bie'n doe lap giai thich dugc 48,85% nguyen n h a n a n h hudng de'n quyg't dinh t a n g hay giam ng cda cdng ty.
PhUdng t r i n h the hien md'i quan he gida ATDA vd cdc big'n ddc Idp nhu sau:
ATDA= 0,0738 + 0,2530*IAt + 0,5293* ANWCAj
-0,7789*CA, (10) Ket qua td phuang t r i n h (10) cho thd'y, big'n
a n h hudng Idn nha't de'n quyg't dinh ng vay Id lgi n h u a n sau thug'. Ne'u lgi n h u a n sau thug' t a n g 1% thi se l a m g i a m vay ng 0,78%, d i l u ndy t r u n g h g p vdi gia t h i e t LTTTPH la edng ty se Uu t i e n sd dung ngudn lgi n h u a n gid lai thay vi sd dung vay ng ben ngoai. Tig'p theo Id thay ddi vd'n luu ddng 1% se l a m cho edng ty vay ng t h e m 0,53%. Trong thUc t e , viec t a n g nhu c^u vd'n lUu ddng cd khd n d n g dign ra theo yg'u td' vu mua hoac t i n h hud'ng kinh doanh bd't ngd n e n edng ty thUdng p h a i vay ng ben ngodi. Cud'i cung, big'n dau t u t d n g 1%
thi cdng ty se t a n g vay ng 0,25%. Cac bdng chdng duge tim tha'y trong n g h i e n cdu ndy cd p h ^ n khdc vdi ke't qua trong n g h i e n cdu cua Vd Hdng Ddc vd T r a n Nguyen Minh Anh (2015). Dieu ndy h a m y r d n g , cd sU k h d n g ddng nha't trong hoach dinh ca'u true vd'n gida n h d n g nhdm doanh n g h i e p ed dac didm khdc nhau.
Ke't l u ^ n v a kie'n n g h i eho c a e c o n g ty t h u ^ c VN30
Bdi vie't nghien cdu mdc do anh hUdng cua tham hut tai chinh dg'n quye't dinh phat hdnh ng mdi cua cong ty thude nhdm VN30 tren san chdng khoan TP.HCM giai doan 2008-2012 bdng phuang phdp mo hinh FEM. Ke't qua tim thd'y bdng chdng de cho rdng, LTTTPH giai thich dugc quye't dinh sd dung no tai cac cdng ty Idn tai Viet Nam. Dilu nay thd hien, khi tham hut tdi ehinh tdng hoae giam thi cdng ty cung cd xu hudng tdng hodc giam vay ng vdi mUc giai thich tuang dd'i cao la gan 60%. Khi chia bie'n thdm hut tai chinh thanh nhieu big'n ddc lap dd kiem dinh thi ke't qua cho tha'y thay ddi lgi nhuan sau thue' dnh hUdng nhieu nha't de'n quye't dinh vay ng, sau dd la thay ddi vd'n lUu ddng va thay ddi dau tU rdng. Bie'n ed tde khdng mang nhieu anh hUdng de'n quye't dinh vay ng vi trong thUc te' cdng ty khong vay no de tra cd tdc cho cd dong. Qua dd, chung ta cd the tha'y dugc khi cdng ty ed nguon lgi nhuan gid lai thi hg se Uu tien tai trg cho cac khoan dau tu va tang vd'n lUu dgng, sau dd mdi sd dung nguon lUe vay ng td ben ngoai.
Cdc cdng ty VN30 la cac cdng ty Idn vd ludn dat muc tieu tdng trudng dai h a n trong tuang lai. Vl vdy, nhu cau t a n g vd'n dd md rdng dau tU cda ede cdng ty Id hien nhien.
Td ke't qua nghien cdu nay, nhdm tac gia khuyen nghi Idnh dao cac cong ty ngn xem xet ve viee hoach dinh ngan sach hdng ndm cua minh phu hdp vdi lgi nhuan giu lai cua Congnghe n ^ S n H i i n Q P f l So 109 • Thang 4/2015 l i U
> » » NGHIEN cifu TRAO DOI
cdng ty. Khi viec chi tieu vugt qua ngudn tai doanh n g h i e p thude chi sd' VN30. Bai vigt trg td ldi nhudn gid lai thi edng ty mdi n e n cung chUa xem x e t tdc dgng cua yeu td sd dung no vay vi hien nay lai sua't cao va n g d n h vd ede d i l u k i e n vl md dg'n CTV cua nen kinh td edn nhieu rui ro. cdc doanh n g h i e p Viet Nam. Ngodi ra tac dong cua do t r e cua cdc yg'u td' cung ngn H a n che' eua nghien cdu nay Id ehi tdp dUOc xem xet khi p h d t t r i d n n h d n g nghign trung vdo mau nghien eUu nhd, gdm n h d n g cdu tigp theo"
Tai li^u t h a m k h a o
1. Adedeji, A . (1998) Does the pecking order hypothesis explain the dividend payout ratios of firms in the UK. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 25(9) &, (10), November/December
2. Fama, F, and French, R. (2002). Testing trade-off and pecking order predictions about dividends and debt". The review of Financial Studies Spring, pp. 15;l-33
3. Frank, M and Goyal. V. (2003). Testing the Pecking Order Theory of Capital Structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 67 pp, 217-248,
4. Gujarati, D. N. (2004). Basic Econometrics Fourth Edition New York, Irwin/McGraw-Hill http://www seribd com/doc/6327400/
Basic-Econometrics-by-Giijarati-4th-Edition.
5. L§ Dat Chi (2013). Cic nhan to anh hudng den vi^c hoach dinh can triic von cua cac nhS quan tri tai chinh tai Viet Nam Tap chi Phdt trien ua Hoi nhdp, So 9. trang 22-28
6. Le Vfin Minh Tndn (2013). Kicm dinh ly thuygt tr^t tu phdn hang vd ly thuySt ddnh doi. nghien ciiu thifc nghiem tgi cdng ty ngdnh sdn xudt thUe pham - do ud'ng - thudc Id niem yd't tren sdn HSX. De tai nghien cilu, TrUcJng Dai hoc Kinh te Da NSng.
7. Modighani, F and Miller. -M H. (1958). The cost of Capital. Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment" The American Economic Review. 48. pp. 261-297
8. Myers, S, C and Majluf. N S (1984) Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have Journal of Financial Economics, 13(2). pp. 187-221.
9 Shyam-Sunder, L and Myers, S, C. (1999). Testing Static Tradeoff against Peeking Order Models of Capital Structure, Journal of Financial Economics, 51(2): pp. 219-244.
10 Vo H6ng Dilc va Trin Nguyln Anh Minh (2015) Su phu hop ciia LTTTPH tai Viet Nam, Tap chi Cong nghe Ngdn hdng so thang 01+02/2015.
T h o n g tin tac gia:
<*) TS. Le Thanh Ngoc hien dang cdng tdc tqi Khoa Ngdn hdng, Trudng Bai hoc Ngdn hang TP.HCM.
Cdc linh viic nghien cau chinh. Kmh te phat tri^n, Tdi Chinh, Ngdn hdng, Thdm dinh gid tdi sdn
Cdc nghien ciiu diiqc cdng bd tren: Tap chi Cdng nghe Ngdn hdng. Tap chi Ngdn hdng. Tap chi Phdt trifn vd Hdi nhdp.
Email: [email protected]
('*)NCS. NguySn Dodn Qud'c Anh hi?n dang cong tdc tai Cdng ty Co phdn Du lich Hue.
Nghien ciiu sinh tai Truang Bai hoc Ngdn hdng TP HCM, khda 17 Cdc linh vuc nghien ciiu chinh. Tdi chinh - ngdn hdng, Thuang mat - dich vu Email, [email protected]
