KHOA HOC CONG NGHE
XAY DUIMG BAI\i DO IMGUY CO RUI RO THIEIV TAI VA KE HOACH THICH IJIMG TROIMG SAIM XUAT LUA O VUIVG
DOIVG BAIVG SOIVG CUU LOiVG
Biii Tdn Ydn>, Nguydn Hdng Son^ Ld Thanh Timg^, Trdn Thi My Hanh^ Chu Thdi Hodnh^ Leocadio Sebastian*
TOMTAT
Hien tuong nhi6u dong phuong Nam (El Nino-Southern Oscillation - ENSO) anh huong tieu cue tdi san xuat Ilia cua Viet Nam. dac biet la o dong bdng song Cuu Long (BBSCL), noi cung cap hon 90% san lugng gao xuat khau hang nam cua ca nuoc. Anh huong thuong xuyen cua lii lut, han hao va xam nhap mjn d DBSCL ngay cang trd nen nang n^ hon do tac dong ciia bien ddi khi hau. TTieo danh gia ciia Lien hiep cac Trung tam Nghien ciiu Nong nghidp Qudc Te (CGIAR Consortium) sau dot han ban va xam nhap man nSm 2015-2016, mac dii Nha nuoc da co cac canh bao som nhimg cong tac chuan bi va thich iing ciia nganh n6ng nghiep con ban che. D^ chii dpng ddi pho voi cac rui ro lien quan toi khi hau trong tuong lai, Cue Trdng trpt (Bo Nong nghiep va PTNT) va Chuong trinh Nghien cuu Bien ddi khi hau, Nong nghiSp va An ninh luong thuc khu vuc Dong Nam A {CCAFS SEA) da phoi hop xay dung va thir nghiem lap cac ban dd nguy co riii ro thien tai va ke hoach thich ung trong san xuat lua (CUmate-Smart Mapping and Adaptation Planning - CS MAP) cho cac tinh vimg DBSCL. CS MAP duoc xay dung cho hai kich ban: nam binh thuong va nam cue doan (ENSO) bang phuong phap tiep can co su tham gia, su dung so sir du lieu sin co vt dia hinh, khi hau, thiiy van, co so ha tang va kmh nghiem thuc td cua nong dan, nha khoa hpc va can bo dia phuang. Ket qua cho thay, CS MAP da giup xac dinh dupe nhimg nguy co ca do tu nhien va do yeu to con nguoi gay ra. Do CS MAP duoc tien hanh theo phuong phap co su tham gia, mirc dp nguy co thien tai duoc xac dinh gan voi thuc te. Cho toi nay, CS MAP dang duoc ung dung a cac miic dp khac nhau tai 13 tinh/thanh viing DBSCL.
Mac dil CS MAP duoc xay dimg va thii nghiem cho liia o DBSCL nhung no cung co the duoc ap dung d^
xay dung ban d6 rui ro va k^ hoach thich ung cho cac cay tr6ng khac va cac vimg sinh thai khac.
Tir kh6a: Bidn ddi khi hau, dong bing song Cuu long, nguy ccr thien tai, cue doan, san xuit lua.
1. GUI THIEU tuong lai duoi tdc dong cua BDKH, lii lut, han hdn vd ,,, , , „ . * • , . , , ^^r.^. xdm nhap man se tra nen nghiem trong hon. Nhu Voi hon 1,7 tn^u ha dat lua, hang nam DBSCL . . . ; . ^ , , , ..^ ,... . , . , , . - .
^ , " , . , , vay. vol tdm quan trong dac biet doi voi kmh te nong san xudt toi 56% san luong gao ca nuoc va dong gop " .. , , , , ^,
*. • nghiep va an nmh luong thuc cua ca nuoc, san xuat hon 90% luong gao xuat khau [8]. Tuy nhien hdng
nam DBSCL lai chiu anh huong true tiep cua nhieu Ilia cua DBSCL can phai duoc ddm bdo dii di^u kien , , , , , . , , , , d^ sdn sang doi pho voi moi thdeh thitc ciia BDKH loai thien tai hen quan toi khi hau nhu ngap va lii o . „ .- .,
^1, ,*' 1, i - • - ll- - -' A- cothexayra.
vu thu-dong, han han va xam nhap man a vu aong-
xuan va xuan he. Nam 2011, lii lut nghiem hong da "^^ng nhung nam gdn day, Nhd nuoc cimg voi ldm hu hai 27.000 ha hoa mdu, trong do co 10.000 ha ^^^c t6 chuc quoc te da thuc hien nhi^u chuong tiinh mat trdng. Ndm 2016, El Nino lam giam san luong ^^ "hdm phdt ti'ien b^n vung nong nghiep DBSCL 700.000 tiin Ilia vd dnh huong den 339.234 ha dien duoi tdc dong ngdy cdng tdng cua BDKH. Nhin tich ti-6ng Ilia vu dong-xuan, tuong duong 21,8% tdng '^hung, cac chuong-tiinh ndy dd co nhimg dong gop dien tich Ilia cua vu ndy cua DBSCL Du bdo. hong ^1"^" hpng hong vigc xdy dung k^ hoach thich ung vd phdt trien kinh te ddi han cua vimg. Tuy nhien,
; phdn lon gidi phdp tap trung vdo xay dimg the che, 'Vien Thdnhuong Nong hoa bien phdp cong hinh nhu nang cap cdc he thong Vien Khoa hoc Nong nghiep Viet Nam (VAAS) , . .-• i- . - i- i v . , . . i 1 , / - XT 1, - * • XT • r^'" ,'n\\r\iii\ phong chong lu, phan lu, chong xam nhap man va du
Vien Nghien cuu Nuoc Quoc te (IWMI) t- & o > *- > & i .
" Chuong trinh Nghien cuu Bian dfii khi hau, Nong nghiep triJ nuoc ngot, thi trudng. lien ket voi doanh nghiep v& An ninh lucmg thuc khu vuc D6ng Nam A (CCAFS tu nhdn vd nang cao ndng luc nhu dao tao, tap huan SEA) khuyen nong [9. 10]. O quy mo nho nhu tieu vimg Email: [email protected] ^^^^ ^^^^ ^^,^ ^^^^^ ^^^ ^^ ^ ^g^,-^ ^ ^ ^^^ ^^^
KHOA HOC C Q N G N G H E
phan tich va m6 phong tac dpng cua han han, lu lut va xam nhap man [2]. Mpt vdi nghifen cim c6 tinh den nhimg ddc thii cua dia phuang d^ de xuat giai phdp tiiich img nhung lai mang tinh cue bo, thi^u tinh lien ket vimg [3]. Co kha it gidi phdp thich iing vol BDKH cho nguoi nong dan.
De chu dpng doi pho voi cdc nii ro lien quan tai khi hau. phu hop voi dieu ki^n ddc thii cua tiing dia phuong, dong thai hdi hoa trong dinh huong phdt tiien Uen k^t viing. Cue Trdng trpt vd CCAFS SEA dd phoi hgp xay dung phuong phdp lap ban do nguy co nii ro tiiien tai vd ke hoach thich img ti-ong san xuat lua (CS MAP) cho cdc tinh vimg DBSCL. Muc tieu cua nghien ciru nay Id hd tra Cue Trong h-pt vd cdc tinh quan ly san xuat lua tiiich ung vol BDKH thong qua xdy dung (1) bdn do v^ nguy ca ngdp lut, han hdn va xdm nhap man quy md tinh; va (2) ke hoach thich ling trong sdn xuat lua cho timg tinh va cho todn vimg.
CS MAP da duac CCAFS SEA tiiir nghiem lan dau Men 6 tinh Bac Lieu vao cuoi ndm 2016 va sau do trien khai cho 13 tinh/thdnh DBSCL tir dau ndm 2017. Hien nay CS MAP da duoc Vien Nghidn eiru Qudc te v^ Tdi thiet nong thon (International Institute of Rural Reconstruction - IIRR) iing dung cho quy mo lang, xa a Philippines. CS MAP cung dang dugc Bo Nong nghiep Phihppines quan tam vd can nhdc iing dung trong viec lap ban do nii ro thien tai vd phuong an thich iing cho lua tren quy mo toan quoc.
Doi vol DBSCL, san pham cua CS MAP Id ca sa tin cay de cdc tinh tham khao trong chi dao san xuat vd thich ung som khi c6 cac canh bdo thien tai trong thoi gian toi. Bdi vi^t nay giai thieu phuong phdp, qua trinh thuc hien vd cdc ket qua trien khai CS MAP b vimg DBSCL.
2 . PHUDNG PHAP niGHEiy CUU
Trong nghifin ciru nay, nguy co nii ro thien tai ddi vai lua duac hieu la khd nang bi thiet hai ve ndng suat hoac san lupng lua neu co thien tai xay ra. Co 4 miic rill ro tuang ung voi cdc miic thiet hai duoc quy dinh tai Di^u 3 Thong hr lien tich 43/2015/TTLT- BNNPTNT-BKHDT cua Bo Nong nghiep va PTNT va Bp Ke hoach vd Dau tu (2015) vd Nghi dinh 02/2017 ciia Chinh phu [4] nhu sau: (1) Riii ro cao:
Co the lam giam tren 70% ndng suat hoac san luong;
(2) Riii ro trung binh: Cd the ldm giam 30-70% ndng suat hoac san lupng; (3) Riii ro tiiap: Co the ldm gidm
duoi 30% ndng sudt hoac san lupng; (4) Khong nil ro:
Khong bi anh huong tai ndng suat hoac san luong.
Ban do nguy ca rui ro thien tai vd ke hoach ihich ung trong san xudt liia duac xdy dung bdng phuong phdp CS MAP [7]. Phuong phdp nay duoc CCAFS SEA xay dung va thir nghiem vdo dau ndm 2016, gom cdc buoc thao luan tuan tu vdi su tham gia cua cdc nhd khoa hoc vd can bp quan ly thuoc cdc hnh vuc hdng trpt, bao vg tiiuc vat, thuy lpi, khi tupng, thuy van vd BDKH.
Bude I: Nhan dinh eac nil ro thien tai lidn quan den khi hau. Trong buoc ndy, phuang phap thao luan nhom vd phong van true tiep dupe sir dung d^ liet ke chi tiet cdc loai thifen tai lien quan den khi hau, thai gian xuat hien, khu vuc dnh huong va muc dp thi0t hai doi voi san xuat liia. Cac nghien cuu ve dien bi^n vd du bao thien tai li^n quan tdi dia phuong ciing dupe thao ludn de giiip can bp dia phuong nhan dinh cac nguy ca thien tai va pham vi anh huong co the xay ra trong tuong lai.
Bude 2: Xae dmh pham vi ranh gidi cac miic do rui ro. Bdn d6 dia hinh a ty le 1:50.000 (ban do ca sa), ban do hien trang sir dung dat vd kinh nghiem thuc te cua cdc cdn bp dia phuang dupe su dung de xdc dinh nhung khu vuc sdn xuat liia co nguy co thi^t hai neu thien tai (xac dinh b buoc 1) xdy ra. D6i voi moi loai thien tai, vimg co nguy ca dupe xdc dinh vdi 2 kich ban: (a) a cac ndm binh thuong, co khd nang xay ra thien tai nhung b muc do trung binh, (b) b cdc ndm cue doan, co khd ndng xay ra thien tai gdy anh huong nghiem hpng. M6i kich ban dupe ve bdng but mdu hen mot lop phim hong, dat chdng \tn ban d6 giay.
Bude 3: De xuat cac kd hoach thich ung. Dua trdn ket qua thu dupe a buoc 2, tiep tuc thao ludn v^
cac bien phap va ke hoach thich ung phi cong trinh cho tiing vimg nguy co. tuang ung voi mdi miic nii ro vd kich ban thien tai. Cac bien phdp vd ke hoach duoc de xuat dua hen nguyen tdc: (1) co tinh thuc hin, (2) yeu cau dau tu tdi thieu, (3) co khd ndng trien khai nhanh.
Bude 4: Hidu chinh cic ban dd nguy ca rui ro thien tai vi cic ke hoaeh thich iing. Cdc lop thong tin ban do thu duac tii buoc 1 vd buoc 2 dupe so hoa vd hiin tap hen nen bdn do co sa, a ty le 1:50.000. Cac ban do ndy sau do duoe hieu chinh va chi tiet hda a timg tinh thong qua cac cupc thdo ludn gitia lanh dao
16 NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY 1 - THANG 6/2019
KHOA HOC CdNG NGHE
Sd Nong nghiep vd PTNT, cdc Chi cue Trong ti-pt vd Bao ve thuc vat, Chi cue Ihiiy lpi vd cdc ca quan Uen quan cua tinh.
Budv 5: Ket hop ke hoach thich ling eua cae tinh theo tieu vung smh thai va toan vimg DBSCL Trong buoc nay, ki hoach thich img cua cac tinh rieng re dupe tong hpp thdnh k^ hoach cua timg tieu vung sinh thai vd todn viing DBSCL va duge dai dien So NN&PTNT cdc tinh va cac nha khoa hgc cimg thao ludn thdng qua mdt hpi thao tham van. Cdc van d^ vi phdi hgp quan ly tdi nguyen, van hdnh he thdng tudi tieu, chia se ca so ha tang vd ngudn lue gitra cdc tinh nhdm thich iing vdi tdc dpng cua BDKH dupe cdc dai bi^u trao ddi chi het 6.i tim ra giai phdp chung cho todn vimg mpt each thich hop nhat.
Kinh nghiem thuc te cua can bo chuyen mon va kien thiic chuydn gia la rat quan trpng hong 5 bude thuc hien CS MAP. Cdn bg thuoc Cue Trong hot. So NN & PTNT, Trung tam Khi tupng Thuy van Trung uong, Dai Khi tupng Thuy vdn. cdc vien nghien ciiu, truong dai hpc va to chiic qudc te dugc moi tham gia vdo tat cd cdc buoc thao ludn va xdy dung ban do.
Viec xdc dinh. phdn cap cdc miic dp rui ro thien tai vd lira chon giat phdp thich img do can bd dia phuang thuc hien, dua hen hien trang tai nguyen thien nhifen, ca sd ha tang vd thuc tiin qudn ly cua timg tinh.
3. KET QUA VA THAO LUAN
Nguy ca va miic dp cua riii ro thien tai hong canh tac lua do nhieu y^u td quy^t dinh. nhu tan xuat xuat hien, thdi diem xuat hien vd cuong do cua thien tai va Uen quan tdi Ioai va kieu su dung dat, gidng lua va giai doan sinh trudng cua cay liia.
Tuy nhien cdch hieu va dinh nghia ve cac mirc dp rui ro thidn tai doi voi sdn xuat lua d DBSCL Id khong thdng nhat, tiiy thuoc vdo chuyen mon vd nhdn thirc cua mdi dia phuong. Ddi vdi cdn bp quan ly d dia phuong thi viec ket hgp sir dung nhidu chi tieu dinh luong (vi du dp man. sd ngdy nhidm man.
thoi gian sinh truang cua cdy, khd ndng chdng chiu cua gidng...) de danh gia nii ro thidn tai la rat khd dp dung trong thue te. Ngupe lai, cac chi sd dinh tinh co tinh khai qudt lai it gdy nham lan va dd hieu hon. Do dd, nii ro thidn tai dupe dinh nghia thdng nhat Id kha ndng ldm giam nang suat lua n^u thidn tai xay ra trong dieu kidn ha tang vd quan ly hidn tai. Nhu vay, thdi diem va tan xuat xuat hien. cuong dp ciia thien tai vd khd ndng chdng chiu cua gidng lua dupe don gian hoa thdnh mot cht sd nii ro duy nhat (nhu da gidi thieu trong phan phuong phdp CS MAP d hen).
Chi sd ndy cUng phii hpp vol huong ddn trong Nghi dinh 02/2017 ciia Chinh phu [4].
O DBSCL, cdc loai thidn tai lidn quan tdi khi hdu va anh hudng true tiep tdi sdn xuat liia Id ngdp lii, han hdn va xam nhap man. Trong dd, ngdp lu thudng xdy ra a vu he-thu, cdn ban ban vd xam nhap man thudng xdy ra dong thdi vd co tdc dpng cgng huong (han- man) d vu ddng-xuan.
Bang 1. Ty lg didn tich ddt trdng liia cd nguy ca thidn tai cua cdc tinh BBSCL (%) *
Tinh/fliMi
An Giang Bac Leu Ben Tre Can The CaMau D6ngThap Hau Giang Kien Giang Long An Soc Trang Ti^n Giang Tra Vinh Vinh Long Toan vung DBSCL
Nguycc Nam binh fliironf Cao
7,7
27.2 38.2 0,1 0,0 5,6 26,8
8,5 Trung
binh 49.3
29,3 48,5 59.1 28,2 13,3 16,2 0,0 23,4
Thap 13,3 0,0 3,8 25,3 6,4 9,1 66,7 58,3 0,0 2,1 0,0 4,3 24,8
An toan 29,7 100,0 100,0 39.7 74,7 6,8 31.7 5,1 22,9 100.0 55,0 100.0 95,6 43.3
ig^.lu Nam cue doan Cao
55,2
27,2 47.9 59.2 0,0 16,2 26.8 0,0 19,8
Trung binh
15,1
29.4 25,3 41.6 8.9 28,2 60.9 0.0 16,2 38,4 25.3
Tliap 0,0 0,0 16.9 0,0 3.8 31,8 66.7
2,0 0.1 28,3 15.7
An loan 29,7 100,0 100.0 26,5 74,7 6.8 5.1 22,9 100,0 55.0 99,9 33,2 39,3
Nguy cffhan-man Nam binh thuong Cao
36,9
9.1 0.4 42,6
4.3 Trung
binh 0,0 5.9 0,0 0,0 19,2 11,5 10,0 0,2 33.0 7,3 8.0
Thsp 49,9 40,0 50,6 32.3 6.6 23.4 11,2 47,0 23,5 0,0 16.4
An loan 100.0 50.1 17,2 100,0 49,4 100.0 67.7 74,2 55.9 78.8 52.4 0.9 92,7 71.2
Nam cue doan Cao 10,7 87.8 75,9 45,8 25,9 15.4 27,1 2,1 53,4 8,1 21.0
Tmng binh 19.0
0.6 2,4 4,1 0,4 11,7 39.3 0,2 28.9 20,5 8,6
Thap 11,1 48,3 0,0
lO.fi 0.0 21.2 0 7 47,3 lfi,9 28.3 11,4
An 88,9 22,0 11,6 100,0 21,7 100,0 39,5 73,8 5L7 32,9 50.4 0.9 43.1 58.9
KHOA HOC CONG NGHE
* Dien tich dat lua cd nguy cu rui ro thien tai duoc ude tinh dua tien ban dd hien trang su dung dat lua vdng DBSCL [6] va bin dd rui ro thidn tai do cin bd cac tinh khoanh ve.
K^t qud xay dung ban do nguy ca thidn tai trmh bay d' bang 1 cho thdy nguy ca gidm nang suat lua do ngdp lu cd d 9 tinh va do han-man b 10 tinh cua DBSCL. Dien tich c6 nguy ca gap nii ro thien tai cua cdc tinh thay doi tuy theo eudng dp cua thien tai. Vi du, nhiing nam ngdp lii cue doan cd the lam dien tich CO nguy co tdng tdi 67% d Vinh Long, hay han-man CIIC doan lam dien tich co nguy ca tang len tren 60% b Hdu Giang. Mot sd tinh cd ca hai nguy ca ngdp lii vd han-man nhu Cd Mau, Hdu Giang, Kien Giang, Tien Giang va Vinh Long.
Dua hen pham vi va muc dp cua cdc nguy co thien tai ddi vdi lua d cdc ndm bmh thudng vd nam circ doan, todn bp 13 tinh cua DBSCL da xdy dung kich ban thich img phii hap. De trinh bay ro hon ve cdc kich ban thich img d cap tinh, tinh Sdc Trang dupe lira chpn ldm vi du. Ket qua xdy dung ban dd nguy CO han-man vd cdc bidn phdp thich img cua tinh Sdc Trang duoc the hien dhinh 1.
Sdc Trang cd ti'en 149.000 ha dat hong lua, ti-ong dd hon mpt mia (54%) dien tich duac sii dung trdng 3 vu lua. Con lai Id dat 2 vu Ida (36%) vd luan canh 1 vu Ilia vdi cdy hoa mdu hoac nudi trdng tiiuy san (10%).
Ca cau mita vu pho bien la vu ddng-xuan (thdng 11 den thdng 2), vu he-thu (tiidng 4-7) va vu thu-ddng (thdng 8 den tiiang 11). Vu ddng-xuan nam 2015- 2016, han-man hdm trpng do BDKH ket hpp vdi hidn tuang El Nino da anh hudng tm 10.000 ha lua d 6/11
Ndm binh thudng
huyen cua tinh Soc Trdng gay thiet hai gan 38 ty dong, trong do cd 902 ha hi mat trdng.
Trong nhirng ndm bmh thuong, chi cd khu vuc ckc huyen My Tii, Ke Sach vd Ngd Ndm cd nguy ca bi dnh hudng boi han-man. Tuy nhien, trong nhung nam cue doan, vimg cd nguy ca chiem tdi gan 2/3 dien tich dat lua ciia tinh (Hinh La). Trong dd, mpt nua cd khd ndng bi thidt hai ndng (mat tren 70% ndng suat), tap trung d cdc khu vuc dpc theo sdng Hdu vd giap vdi tinh Bac lieu. Nhidu khu vuc (cdc huydn Tiianh Tri, Tran Dd, Long Phii vd Chdu Tiianh) cd nguy ca nii ro cao do nude man xdm nhap sdu vao trong npi ddng. Ddc bidt, nguy ca xam nhap man d Soc Trang (khu vuc huyen Nga Nam) con do nude man dupe ddn chu dgng vdo cdc vung nudi tdm ciia Cd Mau va Bac lidu di ngupc vao vimg ngpt ciia Sdc Trdng theo tuydn kenh Phung Hiep.
De chu dgng thich iing vdi thidn tai, hai giai phdp phi cdng trinh dupe dd xudt la chuyen doi ca cau miia vu vd thay ddi lich xudng gidng. Theo do, chuyen doi ca cdu mua vu (Hinh l.b) se giiip tinh Sdc Trang chu dpng giam tdn that do tinen tai. Gdn mot mia didn tich liia 3 vu cua tinh tap trung d vimg cd nguy co han-man cao dupe dd xuat chuyen thdnh ddt canh tdc 2 vu. Ben canh dd, tiiy ddc diem ha tang cua timg khu vuc va kich ban thidn tai md thoi diem xudng gidng cho hai vu nay cung duge thay ddi khac nhau (Hmh l.c). Vi du d khu vuc huydn Nga Nam, trong nhiing nam cd nguy ca han-man cue doan thi vu he-thu dugc dd xuat xudng gidng vao thdng 6, mugn hon so vdi cac ndm binh thudng (xudng gidng vao thang 4) vd vu ddng-xuan xudng gidng vao thdng 10, sdm hon so vdi cdc nam binh thirdng (xudng gidng vdo thang 11).
Ndm cue doan
" ^ r i ^ = ^
I Trung binh
KHOA HOC C 6 N 0 NOHE
a,^ ,
4
I Lua 2 vg ^ H l Liia 3 v I Liia - thiiv san \: y- ,|Pat khac
E^^DBS^U ^B^HU^^H ^^^Q QJ^mj^Q^Q ^QJ^Q^^g^^^Q ^^^n^^^m Hinh 1. Ban dd nguy cahan-mdnra cdc
Thdng 2 ndm 2017, Cue Trdng hpt dd cd Cdng van 184/TT-CLT de nghi Chi cue Trong hgt va Bao vd thuc vat cdc tinh DBSCL xdy dung kd hoach thm vu dua theo kdt qua thuc hien CS MAP. Cho toi giiia ndm 2017, toan bd 13 tinh/tiidnh DBSCL da hodn thdnh cdc ban do nguy ca riii ro thien tai va cac kd hoach thich iing chi tiet.
Theo Ciic Trdng hpt [1], trong nam 2018 todn viing DBSCL dd chuyen ddi hon 68.000 ha dat gieo trdng lua sang cdy trong can. Trong dd, phan ldn didn tich chuyen doi (55.216 ha) trong vu ddng-xuan, thudc cdc viing cd nguy ca thieu nude tudi. Cdc tinh An Giang, Tien Giang ehuyen doi sang cay rau man, cay an trdi. Trudc nguy ca han man do El Nino trong giai doan cudi ndm 2018 va dau ndm 2019, Cue Trong trgt dd cd kd' hoach gidm dien tich gieo sa vu dong- xuan 2018-2019 cua vimg DBSCL ddng tiidi chi dao
kich ban thich iing ciia tinh Soc Trdng
cdc vung ed nguy co han-man cao thuoc cdc tinh ven bien xudng giong tap trung trong thang 10 de tan dung nguon nude ngot va hdnh han cudi vu.
O DBSCL, ke hoach san xuat lua ciia cdc tinh Uen ke cd dnh hudng true tiep vdi nhau. Trong nhung ndm han hdn, dung tich va thdi gian gitr nude cua cdc tinh dau ngudn nhu An Giang, Dong Thdp cd the lam thay ddi miie do rui ro vd quy md thidt hai ciia cac tinh cudi ngudn nhu Kien Giang, Long An.
Ngoai ra, co che chia se cdc tdi nguydn khac nhu lao dgng, CO gidi ndng nghiep, v.v. cua tinh ndy eung anh hudng ldn tdi ke hoach sdn xuat va thich iing vdi thidn tai cua cdc tinh khac. Vi vay, b hdi thao tdng ket CS MAP dupe td chuc d Can Tha vdo thang 7 ndm 2017, ban do nguy ca thien tai va ke hoach tiiich ung cua tiing tinh rieng re da duoc ket hgp vd thdng nhat theo 3 tieu vung: (1) vung thuang ngudn gom An
KHOA HOC CONO NGHfi Giang, Kien Giang, Dong Thdp, Long An; (2) viing
tiTmg tdm gdm Can Tha, Vinh Long, Tien Giang, Hau Giang; (3) vung ven hien gom Ca Mau, Bac Ueu, Sdc Trdng, Trd Vmh vd Ben Tre de cac tinh tirong cac tieu vung cd the ket hpp khi tiiuc hien cdc k^ hoach thich iing.
4.KFrLUANVAXE\iniGHI 4.1. K^t ludn
CS MAP la phuong phap phu hpp de kdt ndi nguy ca thidn tai vdi giai phdp thich ung (thdng qua chuyen ddi ca cdu miia vu va thay doi Uch thdi vu) mang tinh dac tnmg cho timg vung cu the. Miic dp nguy ca thien tai duoc xdc dinh bdi cdn bp dia phuang, gom 4 cdp: (1) Rid ro cao: Cd the lam gidm tren 70% ndng suat hodc san lugng; (2) Riii ro tiimg binh: Cd the lam gidm 30-70% nang sudt hoac sdn lupng; (3) Riii ro thap: Cd the ldm giam dudi 30%
ndng sudt hoac sdn lugng; (4) Khong nii ro: Khong bi dnh hudng tdi ndng suat hoac san lupng.
Cdc gidi phdp thich ung phi cdng trinh dupe cdc tinh DBSCL de xuat gdm: chuyen doi co cau miia vu va thay ddi lich xudng gidng. Day la cac giai phdp phil hgp vdi ndng luc ve ha tang, tdi chinh, ca chd quan ly vd con ngudi hidn co ciia cdc tinh.
Han chd cua phuong phdp ndy Id vide xdc dinh vimg nguy co vd dd xuat phuong an thich iing phu thudc nhidu vdo y kien chu quan ciia cdn bd tham gia thao ludn. Vi vay, ket qua CS MAP phai dupe kiem tra vd chinh ly nhidu lan vdi sir tham gia cua dia phuong vd cac nhd khoa hpc.
4.2. Kien nghi
Mac dil CS MAP dupe xdy dung vd thir nghiem cho lua d DBSCL nhung nd ctmg cd tiie dupe dp dung de xdy dung CS MAP cho cdy hdng khde va vimg sinh thai khac. CS MAP cd tiie trd thdnh cdng cu hiru ich hd trg quan ly vd ra quydt dinh. Sdn phdm cua CS MAP ciing cd tiem nang img dung trong bao hiem ndng nghiep, ciiu h a thien tai, didu tiet ngudn nuoc bdng cdng trinh thuy lgi, v.v.
L^nCAMCfN
Nghien cuu nay duoc thuc hidn vai su hd tra kinh phi va ky tiiuat cua Chuong trinh Nghidn euu BDKH, Ndng nghiep va An ninh luong tiiuc khu vuc Ddng Nam A (CCAFS-SEA). Nhdm tac gii tian trong cam on cic Sd Ndng nghiep va PTNT cua 13 tinh/tiiinh DBSCL, Trung tam Du bao Khi tirong
Thuy van Trung uong, Dai Khi tirong Thuy van khu vuc Nam bd va Vidn Khoa hoc Thuy loi mien Nam vi
^ung ddng gdp qui gia tiong qua trinh thuc hidn nghien cuu nay.
TAI UEU H U M KHAO
1. Cue Trong trot, 2018. Bdo cdo sa ket san xuat cay trong vu thu-ddng, miia va nam 2018 va trien khai ke hoach san xudt vu ddng-xuan 2018-2019 cac tinh Dong Nam bp vd ddng bdng sdng Cim Long.
2. Hoanh C. T., TuongT. P., Kam S. P., Phong N.
D., Ngoc N. v., Lehmann E. (2001). Usmg GIS- Unked Hydrauhc Model to Manage Conflicting Demands on Water Quality for Shrimp and Rice Production in the Mekong river delta, Vietnam.
Proceedings of MODSIM 2001 Conf. m Canberra, AustiraUa. Vol. 1 (MSSANZ). Pages 221-226.
3. Ld Xudn Dinh, Nguydn Manh Qudn, Phimg Anh Tien, 2016. Xdm nhap man tai ddng bdng sdng Clio Long: Nguydn nhdn, tac dgng vd cdc giai phdp ling phd. Cue Thdng tm Khoa hpc va Cdng nghd Qudc gia. Bd Khoa hpc vd Cdng nghe. Tdng luan, trang 50.
4. Nghi dmh sd 02/2017/ND-CP cua Chinh phu, ngay 9 thang 1 nam 2017 vd ca chd, chinh sdeh hd tra san xuat ndng nghidp dd khdi phuc san xudt viing bi thidt hai do thien tai, dich benh.
5. Ngpc Anh, 2011. Thidt hai gan 1.000 ty ddng vi lu a DBSCL. Ban tin thdi su. Bdo dien tir Vietiiamnet.
(https;//vietnamnet.vn/vn/thoi-su/thiet-hai-gan-l- 000-ty-dong-vi-lu-o-dbsel-42922.htnil).
6. Ngd Dang Phong, Reiner Wassmann, 2016.
Bien doi khi hdu dnh hudng den vide sir dung dat tai ddng bdng song Cmi Long: Su thich ung cua cac he thdng canh ldc sdn xuat liia (CLUES). Tnmg tam Nghidn ciru Ndng nghiep Qudc te Uc (ACIAIO, trang 99.
7. Nguyen Hong Son, Bm Tan Yen and Sebastian L. S., 2018. Development of CUmateRelated Risk Maps and Adaptation Plans (CUmate Smart MAP) for Rice Production in Vietnam's Mekong river delta.
CCAFS Working Paper no. 220. Wagenmgen, tiie Netiierlands: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agnculhire and Food Security (CCAFS).
8. Tdng cue Tiidng kd, 2017. Nien gidm Thdng kd Viet Nam 2016. Nhd xuat ban Thdng kd, Hd Ndi, Viet Nam.
NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY 1 - THANG 6/2019
KHOA HOC CONG N G H £
9. World Bank, 2015. Du dn Chuyen doi ndng 10. World Bank, 2016. Du an Chong chiu khi nghiep ben vimg tai Vidt Nam (VnSAT). Nhdm Ngdn hau tdng hpp va suih ke hen viing ddng bdng sdng hdngTh^ gidi, Washington, D.C. Cihi Long (MD-ICRSL). Nhom Ngdn hdng Thd gicn,
Washington, D.C.
DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMAT&RISK MAPS AND ADAPTIVE PLANS FORTHE RICE PRODUCTION IN THE MEKONG RIVER DELTA
Btti Tan Yen, Nguyen Hong Son, Le Thanh Tung, Trau Thi My Hanh, Chu Tliai Hoanh, Leocadio Sebastian
Summary
Tlie El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) adversely affected nee producbon of Vietnam, particularly the Mekong nver delta (MRD), where more than 90% of the country's rice export is produced annuaUy.
Frequent effects of flood, salinity intrusion and drought in the MRD are aggravated by climate change impacts. An assessment conducted by CGIAR Centers during the 2015-2016 ENSO showed that even as warnings were provided by the government, these were not translated into appropnate preparation and response for agnculture. To address this and prepare for future climate nsks, the Department of Crop Production (DCP), Mmistry of Agnculture and Rural Development (MARD) of Vietnam, and CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agnculture and Food Secunty in Southeast Asia (CCAFS SEA) collaborated to develop and test a method to provide climate-related risk maps and adaptation plans called Chmate-Smart Mapping and Adaptation Planning (CS MAP) for nee production m MRD's provinces. The CS MAP outputs were generated for the 2 scenanos: the normal years and the ENSO years following participatory approach, usmg existmg data of topology, chmate, hydrology, mfrastructure and local knowledge. Results show that CS MAP could help to identify both climate-related and farming-related nsks.
With the participaUon of provmcial officials, area and level of risks were realistically determined Up to date, CS MAP IS being adapted at different stages m 13 provinces in the MRD. Although it was developed and tested for rice production m MRD, it can be adapted for ottier crops and other agro-ecological regions Keywords: Climate change, climate-related risks, Mekong river delta, rice production.
Ngudi phan bidn: PGS.TS. Nguyin Vdn Bd Ngdy nhdn bdi: 26/02/2019
Ngay thong qua phdn bidn: 26/3/2019 Ngay duydt dang: 02/4/2019
