ninn re a unmn satin
iTNG DVNG HAM COBB-DOUGLASS TRONG PHAN TICH CAC YEU TO
ANH HirdNG DEN SAN LITONG K H A I THAC THAN 6 vifT NAM Chu Thi 1't>u* Hoang Thj Dung
ThS. Tru&ng Dgi hoc Ldm nghiep T6M TAT
Than di li loai tii nguyen thien nhiSn khdng tii t^o ciia qu6c gia, gia m$t vai frd quan trpng ddi vdi nin kinh \k qu6c din, d$c bift Ii an ninh ning lupng qudc gia. Theo kit qui dilu tra hien nay t6c dO khai tiiic than 6 Vift nam m§i nim khoang trSn 40 tri^u tin than nguySn khai. Than tiSu thy chu ylu xuit kh^u thd chilm khoing tr€n 50%. Phan cdn lai tieu thy trong nude chu ylu cung d p cho cic oginh trpng dilm cua qu6c gia nhu cic nginh di|n Ivrc, phin bdn, giiy, xi ming... Bii vilt niy phin tich djnh tinh vi dinh lupng cic ylu t6 inh hudng din quylt dirih sin lupng khai thic than d Viet Nam - d|c thii m$t nginh cdng nghi^ d^c quyln. Cin cd co sd kinh tl hpc, dng dvmg him Cobb-Doi^ass tic gii xiy dung md hinh kinh tl lupng vl cic ylu t6 inh hudng den sin lupng khai thic tharL Cic ylu td inh hudng din sin lupng khai thic than d Vi§t Nam bao gom nhdm cic ylu td chd quan vi nhdm cic ylu t6 khich quan vi nb(hig can thi^p cfta Chhih pht^. Theo tic gii, kit qud phan tich tic d^ng cua cic ylu t6 din san lupng khai thic than s€ cd ^ nghia quan trpng d6i vdi vl€c sd dyng ngudn tii n^^ln than di hl$u qui - bin vung.
rd- kitda: Him Cobb-Douglass, than dd, sdn lufrng khai thdC, yiu ti dnh hudng L D A T V A N D f :
Ngdnh Cdng nghifp than Id mdt ngdnh cdng nghidp khai thdc tdi nguyen tiiien nhidn khdng tdi tao cua qudc gia, ddng vai trd quan trgng trong sir nghifp phdt triln kinh td ddt nude ddc biet Id ddm bdo an ninh ndng lugng qu6c gia. Theo EIA sdn Iugng than Vidt Nam nam 2007 Id 49,14 tri?u t V vdi sdn Iugng nay Viet Nam diing thu 6 trong cde nude Chau A, thii 17 trdn thd gjdi chidm khodng 0,69% san lugng than tren thd gidi .M§t khde than cdn Id ddu vdo eho rdt nhieu cdc ngdnh sdn xuat cdng nghifp trgng ydu cua ddt nuoc nhu: ngdnh dien lue, ngdnh phan bdn, ngdnh cdng nghiep xi mang vd edng nghifp Gidy... Trong dd, than chidm tdi 6% ehi phi gid tiidnh cua xi mdng Id quay, 12% cua xi mang 16 diing, 44% dam ure eua Nhd mdy dam H a Bdc. Vdi nganh dien, tieu chudn dp dung cho nhift difn Id 390g cho 1 kWh dien. (theo Bg Tdi chinh, ndm 2007).
Tuy nhien, cdng nghifp khai thdc than gay tde dgng bat lgi ldn ddn vdn dd bao ve mdi trudng thien nhidn eiing nhu mdi trudng sdng ciia con ngudi. Chang han khai thdc than se gdy ra vdn dd bui md, nude thdi md, bui md
trong qua trinh vdn chuydn, vdn dd ddt da thdi....Than cdn la ngu^n ndng lugng gay nhidu tdc hai eho mdi trudng, la thii pham chinh tao ra hieu iing nhd kinh (than thdi ra lugng khi CO2, cao g i p hai ldn so vdi gas).
Ngdnh than Vift Nam la mdt ngdnh cdng nghifp ddc quydn, cdc quydt dinh khai thdc vd sdn xuat than cung chiu dnh hudng bdi eac ydu td chii quan vd khdch quan. Siing trdn gdc dd kinh te hge nd ciang chiu dnh hudng ly thuylt hdnh vi ngudi sdn xuat. Bdi bdo da di sau nghien euu hdm Cobb-Douglass va im% dyng md hinh hdm ndy de xdy dung md binh hoi quy trong phdn tich cdc y l u td dnh hudng din sdn lugng khai thdc than is Vift Nam. Trdn co sd do bdi bdo ddnh gid ndng 1 ^ ngdnh cdng nghifp than ciing nhu can thifp cua Chinh phii hien nay doi voi nganh cdng nghidp than trong vifc khai thdc va sdn xudt Aan tlidnh phdm.
Xudt phdt tii nhiing thyc trang nghidn ciiu bai bao dua ra mdt sd gidi phdp c\i thd n h i m qudn ly vd su dung ngudn tdi nguydn than hif u qud, tiet kif m, ben viing.
ILPHirONG PHAP NGHIEN CCltJ 2.1. Phinmg phdp thu th^p thdng tin, s6 lieu T ^ CHI K H O A H Q C VA CONG NGHJ^ L A M N G H I | ; P S 6 4 - 2013 119
ninn te & unmn sach
- Thu th|q) so lifu thii cdp: sd lieu thur cdp dugc thu thdp t^i t^ip dodn than Vift nam thdng qua cac bdo cdo tdi chinh, cae sd sdch chiing tii
^ chdp khdc t^i tdp dodn; thu thap sd lifu thu cap qua sach, bdo, tap chi, cdc bdo cao tdng k i t khdc cd lien quan d i n vdn d l nghien ctiru (da dugc cdng bo).
- Thu t h ^ sd lifu so c ^ : S6 lifu so cdp Id so lidu dugc thu th|q) true t i i p qua phdng vdn, trao doi vdi cdc ddi tugng cd lidn quan t ^ cdc don vi thugc pham vi nghidn cum.
2J1. P h m m g phdp xu \yy phdn ticb thdng tin, so lifu
Phuomg ph^ xir l^ so li^u
Sd lifu va cde thdng tin dugc xii ly tren phdn m i m Excel bang b i l u dd, dd thi, bang bilu, su dung p h i n m i m StataS....
Phutmg phdp phdn tich
Phutmg pftdp thdng ke mo td: Phuong phdp nay dugc su dung de md td tinh hinh qudn ly, khai thdc vd su dung tdi nguyen than dd d Vift Nam. Cdc ehi tieu dugc su d y i ^ bao gdm: sd binh qudn, sd tuong ddi, sd tuyft ddi, c o cdu, ty trgng, toe dd phdt trien binh qudn....
Phuang piidp so sdnh: Phuong phap nay dugc sur dung de phdn tich vd ddi chilu tde ddng cua ehinh sach thul tdi nguyen d i n ehi phi, gid thanh, sdn Iugng khai thac than dd
Phucmgph^phmt tich hoi qt^
- Phuong phap ndy dugc su dung dk phdn tich dnh hudng ciia c o che thue tdi nguyen vd cdc nhan t6 khdc ddn sdn lugng khai thdc than.
- Sii dvmg md binh kinh te Iugng hdi quy bang phuong p h ^ binh phuong nhd nhdt (OLS)
Sau Idii th\rc hifn hhi quy tii bd sd lidu theo hai d^ng: d a i ^ ham tuyen tinh va dang hdm Cobb-Douglass. K i t qud cho thdy md binb hdi quy dang Cobb - Douglass cd k i t qua ddng tin cdy hon ve m|it th6ng ke.
Ham Cobb-Douglass cd dang.Yi AXi'"X2'^...Xk'*e'^
T r o i ^ ^ : Yi la bien phu thugc Xj ( i = 1 , 2 , . . . k) la bien dgc lap tti ( i = 1 , 2 , . . . k) la edc hf s6 hdi quy A Id hdng sd; Ui la sai sd; e la c o sd todn hgc (e = 2,71828)
Ung dimg hdm Cobb-Douglass dugc s u dyng trong kinh t l hgc. Vi du:
Ham sdn xudt Cobb-Douglass:
Q = AK^'r^
Trong dd:
Q: sdn lugng sdn phdm sdn xudt K: dau vdo la vdn
L: ddu vdo la lao ddng A: hdngsd
a: Hf sd eo gian cua sdn lugng theo v6n.
p: He sd CO gidn ciia sdn Iugng theo lao dgng.
Tdng hf sd CO gidn a vd p cd y nghia kinh te quan trgng.
- Neu tdng he sd co gjdn (a + P) = 1, thi hdm sdn xudt cho biet tinh trang doanh Igi khdng thay ddi theo qui md, ed nghia la % tang cdc yeu td d i u vdo bang % tang sdn lugng ddu ra.
- Neu tdr^ hd sd co gian (a + P) > 1, thi hdm sdn xudt cho bidt tinh trang doanh lgi t d i ^ ddn Ibeo qui md, cd nghia Id % tdng cac ydu td ^ u vdo nhd hon % tang san lugng ddu ra.
- Neu tdng hf sd co gidn (a + P) < 1, tin hdm sdn xudt cho biet tinh trang doanh lgi gidm dan theo qui md, cd nghia Id % tang cdc ydu td ddu vao ldn hon % tang sdn lugng ddu ra.
Ham Cobb - Douglass dugc gidi bing phuong phdp logarit hoa hai ve. Ung dung hdm Cobb- Douglass bai bao xdy dung md hinh h6i quy trong phan tich cac yeu td anh hudng den sdn lugng khai thac Than d Viet Nam nhu sau:
Dang hdm:
LnQ =pQ+ piLnXl + ^2 LnXi + ^5X3 + p4 X4+^jX5+^tfX6 + Ui Trong dd cac bien dvtqc the hifn trong bang 0 1 :
120 T ^ C H I K H O A H Q C VA C 6 N G N G H E L A M N G H I E P SO 4 - 2013
ninn iff a Ufmiff aaMi Bang 01. Giai thich j nghia cic biin sHr ttfing trong md hinh
Ten bien Bern v|
tinh hieu
Giai thich cdch tinh va y nghia cac bien 1 Bi6n phy thu$c
San lugng than
nguydn khai tan San lugng than dugc khai thdc hdng q ^ ciia ngaoh chua qua sang tuyln vd chi biln
2 Bien gidi thich
2.1 Giabdntiian dong/tan P 2.1 Thue tai nguySn trifu „
ndp dSng ' 2.2 Chi phi mdi
trudng va phi bdo trifu „ vf mdi trudng d6ng ^ 2.3 T i l f tiian xuat
khdu tren tong sd 2.4 He s6 dao 16 m/lOOO
chung 2.5 Hf so boc dat da 2.6 Ti If than bdn cho
Dien trSn tdng so
%
tan mVtdn
X3
X4 Xs Xfi
gia bdn than binh qudn
So tiln ngdnh phai n$p hdng qu^ theo chinh sdch thue tai nguySn dp dyng tai thdi dilm dd
Bao gom todn bd s6 tiln lidn quan din chi phi mdi trucmg md ngflnh chi tieu d l khdc phyc cdc hau qud M I md nganh gay ra, va phi mdi trudng ngp ngdn sdch, chi p!u' khoan tham dd hdng qu^
Day Id bien the hifn df md ciia ngdnh than. Phan trim than xuit khdu so vdi tong sdn lugng than tidu thy ciia ngdnh So m6t Id dao de lay dugc 1000 tan than nguy&i khai him 16 Phin tram than ti§u thy cho ngdnh difn so vdi tong so than tieu thy cua nganh
S6 liifu svr dung trong md hkih
Do ddc thii c6a ngdnh cdng nghiep than dugc triln khai th\rc hifn theo kilu Tdp dodn - cac don vi thuc hifn. S6 lifu sir d y i ^ trong md hinh: thu th|lp theo quy tir nam 2004 din 2 quy ddu nam 2011 (cd 30 quan sdt cho cdc biln) H I . K E T QUA NGHIEN CUtJ
3.1. Khai quat nganh Cong nghiep than or Vift Nam
Nganh cdng nghiep than da ra ddi vd trdi qtia qud trinh phdt triln hon 160 nam. Tdng cgng da khai thdc dugc 278 trifu t ^ than sach.
Trong thdi Phdp thudc, tii nam 1883 d i n thdng 3/1955 da khai thdc ti-en 50 trifu tdn than sgch, ddo hdng trdm km dudng Id, bdc va dd thdi hdng true trifu m^ dat dd.
Tix ndm 1995 d i n ndm 2001 da khai tiidc gdn 228 trifu tdn than sach, ddo 1041 km dudng Id, bdc vd dd thdi 795 trifu m^ ddt da tren difn tich bai thdi hdng tram ha, sir dung hdng trifu m^ gS chdng Id, hang tram ngdn tdn thu6c no vd hdng trifu tan nhidn Hfu cac loai trong do: rieng tir ndm 1995 den 2001 (khi t6ng Cdng ty than Vift Nam chua dugc thdnh lap) da khai thac 73,4 trifu tdn than s^ch (bdng 26,4% tdng sdn lugng todn ngdnh khai thdc tii trudc den nay), dao 504,5 km dudng Id, bdc vd
dd thdi 237,2 tiifu m^ dit da. (dat 48,5% tdng sd dudmg Id vd 29,8% tdng khoi lugng ddt dd ciia todn ngdnh tii nam 1995 - 2001).
Hien nay ngdnh than khai thdc mdi ndm tren 13 - 14 trifu tdn than sach, ddo binh quan tren 100km dudng Id, bdc vd dd thdi tren 50 trifu m"' ddt da, sii d \ u ^ trdn 160 ngdn m^ gS, khodng 150 ngdn tdn thu6c nd va hang chue ngdn tdn nhien lifu cdc lo^i.
3.2. Tinh hinh khai thac than vd san xu^t tiian Than Viet nam dugc khai thdc chii yeu theo hai quy trinh cdng nghf khai thdc dd Id: khai thdc ham Id va khai thac Id thien
Trong sudt thoi gian qua than dugc khai tilde vd sdn xu4t d i u cd xu hudng tang vdi miic tang binh quan Id 6,89%, cd nghia la mdi ndm lugng than nguyen khai tdng ldn 6,89%. Trong do, than dugc khai thdc tii h i m Id cd xu hudng tdng miic tang tuong ling la 10,46% so vdi than khai thdc Id thidn chi cd 5,63%. Dilu ndy chiing td mudn khai thdc dugc than thi chiing ta ngdy cdng phai khai thdc sdu hon trong ldng ddt. Do nhu cdu than da trdn thi trudng trong nude vd xudt khdu ngdy cdng manh, ndn than ngdy edng dugc khai thdc nhieu hon. Trii lugng than d edc via 10 thien hifn nay da gidm di ddng k l .
Mat khdc, lugng dat dd bi bdc di ciing tang TAP CHf K H O A H Q C VA C 6 N G N G H £ L A M N G H I | : P S 6 4 - 2013 121
ninn re a untnn sacn
len voi miic tang binh quan 14 6,82%, va s6 met 16 duoc dao ciing tSng voi mijrc tang la 9,63%. Dieu nay c4ng chiing to than dugc khai
thdc phuc vu cho nhu cau ngay cang kho khan hon va t6n kem nhieu hon, cong voi trii lugng ngay cang giam di.
Bang 02. Tinh hinh khai thic, chi biin than Viet Nam 2005-2010 Nam
2005 Nim 2006
N5m 2007
Nam 2008
Nam 2009
Nam 2010
TDPTB
>
2 a b c 3 4
phim Than nguyen khai LO thien Him Id Thue than B6cditda
tr.tin Ir.tin tr.tin tr.tin tr.tin 1000 m' m
30,411151 33,539000 20,142162 12,121340 1,275497 165.027 226.643
36,956 40,757 24,477 14,730 1,550 192.991 263.872
40,008 43,375 26,797 16,313 0,265 210.588 289.741
38,612 43,267 25,333 17,553 0,381 216.381 280.503
43,025 44,361 25,760 18,170 0,431 208.725 318.921
42,852 46,788 26,490 19,935 0,363 229.471 358.870
107,10 106,89 105,63 110,46 77,78 106,82 109,63 Ngudn: Ban Ke hogch — Vinacomin
1000000 - 900O0O -
7O00OO - 60000O 50DOOO - d o o o o o 30OO0O 200000
0 -
597.080,39 ^ . . ^ T
_ ^ ^ ^ i j j p i — • • 482.188,96 408.792,45
2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0
— • - N a m
—•-ZdVsx(d/tSn)
Bieu do 01. Tinh hinh tang gid thdnh sdn xuit cda ngdnh Than giai do^n 2005 - 2010 Theo kdt qud bao cao ciia T|ip dodn vd bao
cdo CO sd tdng gid ban than ndm 2011 len Bg Tdi chinh trinh Chinh phu phe duyet cho t h i y gid thdnh thao nam 2005 so vdi nam 2009 tang khodng 62,5% tuong iing vdi miie tang la 257.318 ddng/tdn. Trong dd, nguydn nhdn chii y^u Id do:
- Didu kifn khai thac ngdy cdng xudng sdu vd xa hon, ti t r g i ^ than hdm Id ngay edng tdng, hf s6 bdc dat dd, hf sd ddo Id, cung do van chuyen ddt, than, ti If ddt dd phdi nd min, do xu6ng sdu dp l\rc ldn, nuoc nhidu ldm chi phi thdng gid, bom nude, chi phi khoan thdm dd, chi phi mdi trudng ... ngdy cdng tang.
Dilu kifn khai thdc ldm tdng chi phi Id 42.400 d6ng/ tan. Trong dd: hf sd bdc ddt tang chi phi la: 12.300 ddng/ tdn; cung dd van chuydn ddt da Id thien ldm tang 24.200 ddng/
tdn; cung dd vdn chuyln than tang 900 ddng/tan; ti trgng than hdm Id tang vd cac yeu t6 khdc lam tang 5.000 dong/ tdn.
- Gid ed ddu vao va chinh sdch thul tang:
Gia v§t lifu nd tdng ldm tang chi phi la 4.789 dong/ tdn; gia go Id ldm tdng 2.134 ddng/ tdn;
gia sdt thep ch6ng Id, phy tiing ldm tang 10.289 ddng/ tdn; gid ddu Diezel lam tang 77.947 ddng/tdn; gid sdm l6p d td lam tang 8.280 ddng/ tan; tien luong binh qudn Idm tang 45.529 ddng/ tdn; cde khodn tinh theo luong tdng tdi thieu 5.114 ddng/ tan; thud tai nguyen tdng tii 2.500 d d n g / 1 ^ ldn 27.000 ddng/ t i n ; chi phi mdi tnidng, phi mdi trudng nop ngdn sdch, chi phi tham dd tang tii 7.209 ddng/ tin len 23.731 ddng/ tdn; tiiu^ VAT khdng dugc khdu tiTj (dp dung tii ndm 2009) tang 20.410
122 TAP CHI KHOA HQC v A C 6 N G N G H E L A M NGHIEP S 6 4 - 2013
3.3. Tmh hinh tiSu thy than
Tinh tieu thv trong nhimg nam gSn day dSu CO xu hu6ng tang ISn kl ci than ban trong nuoc v^ xu^t khiu dgt toe d5 ph^t trien binh
quSn 14 107,27%. Trong d6 than tiSu thu trong nude tang 9,34%, than xuit khiu tSng ch&n hon voi mile tang la 4,92%.
Bang 03. Sdn lic0tg than tieu thii tit nam 2005 - 2010
r r Chiti6u , Thantigu
^ thu 1 Trong nude a Dien b PhSnbdn c Giiy d Xi m ^ g e kMc 2 Xudt khdu
Tl le xk/tso
DVT 2005 t r . t k 30,188 tr.tdn 15,447 tr.tdn 4,412956 tr.tin 0,444788 tr.tdn 0,138368 tr.tdn 3,455596 tr.tin 6,995293 tr.tdn 14,741
% 48,83 2006 37,669 16,058 4,545344 0,453684 0,141827 3,576541 7,340818 21,611
57,37
* Nhan xet tinh hinh khai thdc vd tieu thu than
2007 41,652 17,494 5,045332 0,462758 0,146082 3,773251 8,063888 24,158
58,00
a Viet nan
2008 2009 2010 35,437 44,489 42,881 18,173 20,186 24,139 5,398505 6,548387 8,932 0,467385 0,492157 0,5020000 0,149003 0,153176 0,1230000 3,999646 4,603593 5,7660000 8,160655 8,389153 8,8170000 17,264 24,303 18,742 48,72 54,63 43,71
TDPTB Q ( % ) 107,27 109,34 115,14 102,45 97,67 110,78 104,74 104,92 97,81 Nguon: Ban KS hogch — Vinacomin
4 5 4 0
3 0 • 2 5 2 0 15 • 1 0
0 -
•
—y%
- ^ •« = * = * ^ ^
y-:pr='~.•Z
k
^ ^ —.— 1 Than th6nh phdm
• 2 Than nguydn khai tr.tin
—*—3T1iai) IJfiuUig U.l^ii
Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam 2005 2006 2007 200S 2009 2010
Bieu do 02. Arii quan h$ khai thdc, sdn xuat va lieu thu than giai Hoan 2005-2010 Qua bieu ih 02 cho ta thiy moi quan he
tang truong nhip nhang giila khai thac, "sin xuat wk tiSu thu than trong thoi gian qua tuong d6i dn dinh.
San luong than thSnh phim va than nguySn khai giai doan 2005-2010 tSng kha d6u dan va dong d^u. Chiing t6 kS hoach s ^ xuit cua nganh than duoc triln khai dung tiln do va diing ke hoach pho hop v6i nang luc \k kha nang khai th^c - sdn xuat ciia nganh hi^n nay.
Tuy nhien, san luong than tiSu thu giai dojn nay co su bien dong nho. Nam 2008 san luong than tiSu thy giam din din lu(?ng than nguySn khai va than thanh phim giam. Nguygn nhSn chil ylu la trong nSm 2008 cuoc khung hoang
kinh te to4n cau da anh hucmg dang ke den dit nude va nganh than, n6n lugng than tiSu thu giam d§c bi^t 14 lugng than xuit khiu. Mac dii, dilu nay se 4nh hudng den hoat dong kinh doanh ciia Tap doan, song vdi xa h^i thi giam xuit khiu se 14 co h$i cua viec sil dung tai nguyen khdng t4i t ^ trong nude.
3.4. PhSn tich cdc ylu t l anh hirdng den san lirgng khai th^c than d Vi^t nam
3.4.1. Phin tick bang 16m tit cdc cMsS IhSng ki cua cdc biin co trong md hinh
Kit qui cac chi s6 thing kS ciia cdc biln su dung trong md hinh dugc the hien chi tilt tren bilu sau:
T ^ CHi KHOA HQC VA C 6 N G NGHf L A M NGHIEP S 6 4 - 2013 123
nmn te & uninh sach
Bang 04. Bdng tdm tdt cdc chi si thing ke cua cdc biin BiSn Quan sat S6 binh quan Dd l§ch chuan Gia tri nho
nhat Gid tr) ldn nhat Q
p X, X;
XJ X, X i X.
30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
10.100.000 709.222 112.730,7 126.750,2 49,71497 17,67702 8,239239 31,18729
1.730.506 263.321,4 132.632,1 97.401,73 6,741026 1,548056 0,7992475 3,992485
6.701.536 412097,1 10.677,87 30.790,71 37,3125
12,4 6,466729 22,78148
12.400.000 1.299.182 323.185,7 284.056,3 60,34776 21,11656 10,18437 37,00236 4.4.2. Phan tich kit qua hdi quy
Ket qua udc luong mo hinh b l i ^ phuong phap binh phucmg nho nhdt (OLS) cho kk. qua nhu sau:
LnQ = 8,769014 - 0,48369LnXi + 0,912701LnX2 + 0,010163 X3 - 0.01924 X4 + 40,08743 Xs + 0,01646 X^+0,05273LIIP(P.V*.H,377) K6t qua hoi quy kinh t l luong cho t h i y bien gia ban binh quan k h o i ^ co ^ aghia th6ng ke.
vh mat ly thuyet kinh tk, yku td anh huong Ion va r5 den cung khai thac than chlnh ban than gia b a a Tuy nhiSn gia ban than o Viet Nam
ch;u su dieu tiet cua Chinh phu a€n trong mo hinh h6i quy gia bdn binh quan thuc t^ khong c6 y Dghia th6ng ke nen loai bd b i ^ gid bdn bhih quan trong mo hhih
K-h qua u a c lu9ng mo hinh kinh te lu^ng lan 2 nhu sau:
H$ s6 xac dinh b0i R^ = 0,9439 He s6 xac djnh di^u chmh R^ = 0,9293 Kiem djnh -y nghia thdi^ kS cdc biln giai thich sir dung trong mo hinh voi muc y nghia a = 5 % , do tin c$y 95%. Kdt qua u6c luyng cac bien g^di M c h su dung trong mo hinh nhu sau:
Bang 05. Kit qud u&c Itrong hii qity cdc bi&n gidi thich Biln
LnX, LnXz X j X4 X, X6 Hang so
H$ so udc luong -0,49187
0,94001 0,00987 -0,02334 0,09802 0,01616 9,26015
Sai tieu chuan 0,08682 0,15629 0,00317 0,00657 0,02288 0,00477 0,66237
T-test[P-vaIue]
-5,66[0,000]
6,01[0,000]
3,11 [0,005]
-3,55[0,002]
4,28[0,000]
3,38[0,003]
13,98[0,000]
L n Q = 9,26015 - 0,49187LnXi + 0,94001 LnX2 + 0,00987 X3 - 0,02334 X4 +
+ 0,09802X5 + 0,01616X6 - ThuS tai nguyen: day la s6 t i ^ thue tai nguyen thuc th phai n6p cua nganh doi voi hoat d o i ^ khai thdc than dd. H€ sd uoc l u g r ^ la (-0,49187) c6 y nghia th6ng kd a mfic y nghia a =0,05. Voi dieu kien cdc y6u to khdc khong dh\ khi thue tai nguyen nganh phai ndp tang len 1% thi san lugng than nguydn khai se giam di 0,49187%. Ddu am cua h$ s6 the hien m6i quan he ti le nghich giua s6 t i ^ thu6 tai nguyen ngdnh phai ndp va sdn lugng than nguySn khai. Dieu nay cd nghia chinh sach thud tai nguydn cua Nha nuoc ddi vdi mot
nganh cdng n ^ e p khai thdc tai nguydn thidn nhidn n h ^ han che viec khai thac than o hien tai ma de lai cho tuong lai.
- Chi phi mdi tnicmg va phi bao v? moi truong nop ngan sach cua ngdnh la bien dnh hudng ddn sdn lugng than khai thac vdi h? sd udc lugng la 0,94001 cd ^ nghia th6ng kd 0 miic ^ nghia a =0,05. Vdi dieu kien cdc yeu td khdc khdng ddi thi chi phi mdi truong va phi bao v | mdi trucmg tang len 1% tlu sdn lugng than khai thdc tang len 0,94001%. Ddu duong cua he sd the hidn moi quan he ti Id thuan giua san iugng than nguyen khai voi chi phi mdi trudng va phi bdo v | mdi trudng.
Nganh cdng nghidp khai thdc tdi nguydn 124 T ^ CHi KHOA HQC VA CONG NGHE LAM N G H l £ P SO 4 - 2013
niiiii lu » \
thidn nhien khdng tai tao nhu than da c6 anh hudng rat ldn ddn mdi trucmg thidn nhidn vd mdi tnicmg sdng cua con ii^di. Dd khdc ph\ic 6 nhidm cua ngdnh gdy ra thi ngdnh phdi ton nhi^u chi phi nhdm Ididc phyc hdu qud mdi tmdng. Do dd, khi sdn lugng than khai thdc tang thi cdn phai cd nhieu nguon qu5^ mdi trudng de gidi quydt hau qud d nhiem mdi trudng hien nay md ngdnh t ^ ra.
- D$ md cua ngdnh tiian: ti 1$ sdn lugng than xudt khiu so vdi t6ng san lugng than tidu th\i la bien cilng dnh hudng din sdn lugng than nguydn khai vdi h$ sd udc lugng Id 0,00987 cd y nghia thdng kd vdi muc y nghia a =0,05.
Vdi dilu ki^n cdc ylu t l khdc khdng ddi khi ti Id than xuat khdu tdng ldn 1% thi san lugng khai thdc than tang len 0,00987%. Ddu duong thi hi$n mdi quan he ti 1$ thu$n giii'a sdn lugng than nguydn khai vd ti 1§ than xudt khdu so vdi tdng s6 than tieu thu.
Trudc nhiing ndm 2005, Nha nude chua cd chinh sdch kilm sodt hoat ddng xuat khdu than, ndn vi$c Than dugc xudt khdu ra nude ngoai ngdy cdng nhidu. Nhung hifn nay, Chinh phii da cd nhirng chinh sdch nhdm h ^ chi xudt khdu than, chdng hgn sit dung thud quan. Bdng muc thue sudt thue xuat khdu cao cung phdn ndo hgn chi dugc ti 1^ than xudt khdu. M|it khdc, Chinh phu ciing da cd nhiing chi dao cy.
thi ddi vdi ngdnh than hidn nay han chi ti If xuat khdu bang cac chi tidu (han nggch xudt khdu) ydu cau ngdnh phdi gidm ti Id xuat khdu thau trong thdi gian tdi.Tuy nhidn, dl khdc phuc tinh trgng than chdy ra ngodi, Nha nude can phM cd chinh sach cu thi dii vdi ngdnh d ^ biet la vdn de xudt khdu.
- Hf s6 ddo Id chung/1000 tdn nguyen khai ham 16 so vdi tdng sd (so met dao dl khai thdc 1000 tdn than nguyen khai hdm Id) Id biln ciing dnh hudng kha Idn din sdn Iugng than nguydn khai vdi hf sl udc lugng (-0,02334) cd f nghia thing kd vdi miic ^ nghia a =0,05.
Vdi dilu kifn khac khdng dii khi hf sl ddo Id tang ldn 1 (m/1000 tdn than nguydn khai hdm 16) thi san lugng than khai thdc gidm di 0,02334%.
Ddu dm ciia hf s6 udc lugng thi hifn mii quan hd ti If nghjch giiia cdng nghe khai thdc
ham Id so vdi sdn lugng than nguydn khai.
Tren thuc te, tru lugng than Vidt nam trdn be mgt cdn lai rdt it, than hien nay ndm sdu trong 16ng dat. D I khai thdc dugc than thi nganh dang dan chuydn khai thdc than Id thien sang hdm 16. Ndn khi hf sl ddo 16 cdng tang cd nghia Id cdng khai thdc than xuIng sau va tim kiem md mdi thi sdn lugng than cang giam.
Day Id ddu hidu bdo dOng ve an ninh than d Viet Nam. Chiing ta cdn phdi cd chinh sdch can thifp hgp I^ de sii dung nguon tdi nguydn than hidu qud, tilt kif m, bin viing.
- Hf sd bdc ddt da (m^ ddt dd phdi bdc dl dugc 1 tdn than than nguydn khai 1$ thidn) la biln dnh hudng din sdn lugng than khai thdc vdi hf sl udc Iugng Id 0,09802 cd y nghia thing kd vdi miic y nghia a =0,05. Vdi dilu kifn cac yeu to khac khdng ddi khi hf sd bdc ddt dd tang Ida I (m^/tdn) thi sdn lugng than khai thdc tang len 0,09802%.
Ddu duong ciia hd so udc lugng thi hifn mil quan hf tl If thu$n giiia sdn Iugng than nguydn khai va so m^ ddt da dugc bdc tut than If thidn. Dieu ndy chiing td dieu kifn khu vyc khai diac cang khd khdn, than con lgi hidn nay nam d nhiing viing xa, sau lan nhieu dat da.
- San Iugng than tidu thy cho sdn xudt difn so vdi tdng sd than tidu thy Id biln dnh hudng den san Iugng than nguydn khai vdi hf s6 udc lugng 0,0999337. Tuy nhidn biln ndy khdng cd y nghia thing kd vi cd gid tri P>|r[>0,05.
Tren thuc tl thi biln dien Id mgt khdch hdng khd mat thilt vdi ngdnh than. Cd hai ciing cd vai trd trgng yeu ddi vdi nen kinh tl ddt nude.
Ngdnh than ngodi ban than theo nhu cdu thi tnrdng cdn cd m^t vai trd quan trong Id ddm bdo tinh In dinh cua nganh didn ndng qudc gia.
Ndn ti Id than ban cho ^ f n cd f n ^ a quylt djnh den san lugng khai thdc ciia ngdnh. Vdi dieu kifn cdc ylu td khdc khong ddi khi ti Id than bdn cho difn so vdi ting than tieu thu tdng len 1% Ihl than nguydn khai tdng Idn 0,0999337 tieu tan = 99933,7 tdn
3.5. Mdt s6 f kiln dl xudt
3.5,1. Tiip tffc tdng cttarng can thiip ciia Chinh phd doi vM ngdnh cdng nghiip than
Nhdm giai phdp cac cdng cvi kinh t l T ^ CHI KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE L A M N G H I E P SO 4 - 2013
ninn w St uninn sacn
Tiep tyc ddy mgnh vifc dp dung thud tdi nguydn dii vdi vifc khai thdc than. Trdn thuc td, thul tdi nguydn dang dgt dugc muc tieu cua Chinh phii nhdm hgn che san lugng khai thdc tdi nguyen
Phai xdc dinh ro gia thi tnidng tinh thul tdi nguydn cho tidu thy than d ddu vdi gid ndo.
Trdn thuc tl, gia than dugc hinh tii hai giai doan. Giai dogn 1, gid ciia cdc nhd thdu khai thdc bdn cho Bdn giao thdu theo thda thuan.
Giai doan 2, gia. than tieu thy tren thi trudng.
Trdn thyc tl, tiln thul tdi nguydn nfp dugc triln khai tai cdc don vi khai thdc than (Bdn nhdn thau) nen miic do dnh hudng ciia thue din gid thdnh sdn xudt than khdng dit mgnh dl kilm soat ngudn tai nguydn thidn nhidn va it cd tdc d$ng den gid bdn than tren thi trudng.
Nen ap dyng cdch thu phi mdi trudng doi vdi hoat dgng khai thdc than theo miic df khai thdc; cd nghia la m ^ phi thu ndn thay ddi mice thu binh quan sang miic thu luy tidn. Tdc gid dl xudt: miic sdn Iugng khai thdc than tdng 1%
trong ky thi ndn cd miic phi mdi trudng ndn tang Idn 0,94%.
Doi vdi chinh sdch ban che xuat khau than Hifn tgi, chinh sdch thue xuat khau than Vift Nam vdi mdc thul sudt cao cung da cd tdc df ng manh den gia xuat khau than cua nganh.
Ldm tang chi phi cua ngdnh ndn da phdn ndo hgn chd dugc ti Id than xudt khau. Nhu vay, tiip tuc hodn thidn miic thul sudt thud xuat khau than trong giai dogn tiep theo vdi de xudt tiip tuc ndng miic thul sudt thul xudt khdu than Idn hon 15%
Ap dung hgn nggch xudt khau than nghidm i^^t ciing nhu kilm tra gidm sdt vide thuc hifn chinh sach cua Chinh phii. M|t khdc, quy dinh rd hgng myc hay chiing logi than dugc phep xudt khdu trdnh lang phi nguIn tdi nguydn 3.5.2. Biy mgnh nhom gidi phdp nang cao nang l^c khai thdc vd p thuc trach nhi$m cua ngdnh d6i vdi nguon tdi nguyen khdng tdi tgo - Than dd
- Khuyin khich ddu tu vd hgp tac quIc tl trong linh vuc nghidn ciiu, iing dung cdng nghe tien tiln che bien vd sii dung than nhdm ndng cao gia tri sii dyng than, tilt kidm tdi nguydn vd bao ve mdi trudng, nhu: cdng nghe
su dyng than sgch, huyen phu than nude, chd biln than dimg eho luyf n kim, cong nghe khi hda than, than hda dau v.v...;
- Ddy nhanh tiln dg ddu tu cdc cdng trinh md than thdng qua vide da dgng hod eac hinh thiic ddu tu dl phdt huy tdi da mpi ngudn lye, nang cao hifu qud ddu tu. Tiip tyc hodn thidn chinh sach thu hiit dau tu nude ngodi vdo tiiam dd, khai thdc ddi vdi be than dong bang sdng Hong va khu vye dudi -300 m bl than Qudng Ninh;
- Khuyen khich md rfng ddu tu phdt tridn cdc dy dn tham dd, khai thdc than d nude ngodi.
- Tdng cudng cdng tdc tuydn truyin, gido dye phd bien kien thiic ve an todn lao dfng va bao vf mdi trudng ddn mpi cdn bf, cdng nhdn vidn;
- Tranh thu cac nguon vdn trong, ngoai nude, cdc td chiic qudc tl, cdc nguIn vdn tdi trg khdc ddnh cho mdi trudng; kit hgp vdi ehinh quyen dia phuong nhanh chdng khdc phyc nhOng ton tgi d nhiem mdi trudng do khai thac than nhieu nam de lai, ddc bidt Id mdi trudng, cdnh quan vjnh Hg Long;
- Xay dung kd hoach vd 1$ trinh ddi han vdi cde
^di phdp ddng bg nhdm khdc phuc va tiii^ budc giai quylt tdt cac vdn i^ vl mdi trudng trong hogt ddng khai thdc than, <%) iing tieu chuan mdi trudng eua Vift Nam, khu vyc vd thi gjdi;
- Kilm sodt chat che qud trinh thyc hidn quy trinh, tieu chudn ky thuat an toan va mdi trudng trong tham dd, khai thdc, vgn chuyln, chi biln vd sir dyng than. Trong qud trinh triln khai cdc du dn cy thd, chu ddu tu phdi lap bdo cdo ddnh ^ a tdc ddng mdi trudng, trinh duyft theo quy dinh hifn hanh;
IV. Ktr L U ^
Ngdnh edng nghiep khai thdc than d Vift Nam Id mot ngdnh cdng nghifp dfc quyen.
Than duge khai thdc theo kd hogch ehi dao tir Tdp dodn din cdc Cdng ty khai thac true thuOc vd duge tieu thy trong nude, xuat khdu. Sdn lugng than dugc khai thac hang nam cd xu hudng tang ldn, gia bdn binh quan ciing tang lien tyc qua cdc ndm (tir 2005-2010). Nguydn nhan chu ylu Id do nhu cau than tieu thy trdn thi trudng tang vd gid ea cac yeu td ddu vdo cho san xudt than tang. Kit qua nghien ciiu cho thdy than dugc xudt khdu kha nhilu trong thdi gjan qua, cy thi ti If than xuat khdu chilm khoang tir 40%-50% tdi^ than tieu thu. Ngodi 126 T ^ CHI KHOA HQC vA CONG NGHE LAM NGHIEP S6 4 - 2013
xudt khdu, than tidu tiiu toong nude cho 4 hg ldn Id difn, phdn bdn, gidy, xi mang. Vdi tdc df tai^ sdn lugng khai thac nhu hidn nay theo dilu tra cua Vinacomin thi than d Vift nam chi cdn Igi khodng 240 nam dl khai thdc. Dieu do ed n ^ a la vdn dl an niiih ndng lugng quie gia dang bi de doa va ngudn tai nguyen than ngdy cang can kift.
Tren thyc tl, than Vift nam sii dyng chua hifu qud vd tilt kifm. So vdi cde nude khdc trdn thi gidi nhu cdu than tieu thy d Vidt Nam ehi chilm cd 35% ting lugng than tidu thy.
Dilu do cd nghia Id chung ta dang xudt khdu ngudn tdi nguydn ngdy edng khan hiem nay.
Vdi each sir dung nhu vgy, chiing ta dang lang phi nguIn tdi nguyen than vd sy phat trien ciia ngdnh la khdng bin vQng. Mgt ddu hifu khdng tit cho m0t nude dang tren dd phat triln.
Bdn cgnh do, ngdnh edng nghifp khai thdc than eung la mdt tdc nhan ldn trong vdn dd gay d nhilm mdi tnrdng nghiem trong nhu: nude thdi, bui md, sat Id, ddt dd thdi, bdi tiidi...
Dung trudc nhiing thyc trang trdn Chinh phu da cd nhiing can thifp nMt dyih ddi vdi nganh nhdm qudn 1;^ va sit dyng hifu qua tilt kifm vd bin viing ngudn tdi nguyen than dd. Tdc gid da di sau nghidn euu eac can thifp cua Chinh phii
ninn m a Mnih, j«w..
ddi vdi nganh than cu thi la ddi vdi sdn lugng khai thdc vd gia ban binh quan ciia nganh.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. BO Tii Chlnh (2010). Thong tu si 105/2010nT- BTC, ngiy 23 thing 7 nam 2010, ^ hudng din thi hinh Nghi djnh s6 50/2010/ND-CP ngiy 14 th^g 5 n5m 2010 ciia Chinh phu quy djnh chi tilt vi hudng d§n m$t s6 di^u ci^ Luat Thul tid nguy€n, Hi N$i
2. Chinh phu (2008), Quyet dinh si 89/2008/QD- TTg, ngiy 7 thing 7 n5m 2008, Phe duyft Chi^n luge phat triln nganh than Vift nam den nSm 2015 vi dinh hu6ng d^n nSm 2025, Hi Nfi
3. Chlnh phii (2011), Qiiyet dinh si 4WQB-Trg.
ngiy 21 thin^ 3 nam 2011 ciia Thii tinfeg Chfnh phO v^
phS duyft di€u If t l churc vi ho^t dong ciia Tap doin C6ng ngiiifp than vi Khoing sin Viet nam. Hi Nfi
4. Cyc M6i tniimg, Bf KH, CN & MT, 1997, Cac quy dfnh pfm> lu^t vi moi tnrdng. Tip II, Nhi xudt bin Chlnh tri Quoc gia. Hi NOi
5. Hfi ding Nhi nude Vift Nam (1990), Phdp lenh Thui Tai nguySn ndm 1990, Hi Nfi
6. Kim Loan, 2007, Than se liii vi qud khd, NXB Thi gidi dit lieu. Hi NOi
7. Qu6c hoi nude Cfng Hda Xa HOi Chii Nghra Vift Nam, 2009, Lu^t Thui tdi nguyin ndm 2009, Ha Nfi
8. Nguyen Vin Song (2005), Gido trinh kinh te cdng CQng, Trudng D^i hgc Nong ng^fp Hi Nfi
9. website ciia Ting eye thul www.gdt.gov.vn 10. website ciia Tap doin COng nghiep than vi
khoing sin Viet Nam www.vinacomin.vn 11. Theo trang dien tii Vibonline.com.vn
COBB - DOUGLASS APPLICATIONS IN ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING THE PRODUCTION OF COAL MINING IN VIETNAM Chu Thi Thu, Hoang Thi Dung
SUMMARY
Coal is one kind of non-renewable natural resouces which plays an important role in the national economy, particularly the country's energy security. According to the survey results, the current rate of coal mining in Vietnam each year is about 40 million tons of coal. Exporting crude coal accounts for about 50% which is the main part of coal consumption. The rest is mainly for domestic consumption serving several key sectors of the country such as power sector, fertilizer, p^er, cement ... This article analyzes both qualitatively and quantitatively the fectors affecting die decision the coal mining production in Vietnam - a specific industry monopoly. Based on the basis of economics , the Cobb - Douglass application authors to build an economic model of the fectors affecting coal mining production . Factors affecting coal mining production in Vietnam, the group includes subjective elements and objective elements group and the intervention of the Government.
As a result the authors analyze the impact of these fectors on yield coal mining will have important unplications for the use of coal resource efficiency - sustainable.
Keywords: Coal, Cobb - Douglass function, factors that influence, mining production.
Nguddphan bifn: ThS. Trinh Quang Thoai Ngdy nhgn bdi: 13/9/2013
Ngdy phdn bien: 09/12/2013 Ngdy quyit dinh ddng: 10/12/2013
TAP CHI KHOA HOC VA CONG NGH|: L A M N G H I ? P S 6 4 - 2013 127
