NGHIEN CL/U - TRAO DOI
Tir 9 thang,
nhin den ca nam
Chi con chua day mgt phan tuthoi gian nua la ket thiJc nam 2010. Tif ket qua 9 thang va ludng doan nhiing yeu to tac dgng trong 3 thang con lai, co the du doan gi cho trien vgng ca nam nay- nam ban le giiia hai ke hoach 5 nam, giiia hai Chien lugc 10 nam, nam chuyen vj the cua dat nuac tif thu nhap thap sang thu nhap truni binh, tif nuoc nong nghiep den cuii thap ky toi co ban tro thanh nuoc cong nghiep theo huong hien dai?
TANG TRUdNG VA QUY M(5 KINH T^
Chin thang qua, tang trudng kinh td cd mdt sddiem ddng luu y.
Mpt. tang Irudng kinh id chung vdi tdc do cao hon tdc dg tang ciia Cling ky nam trudc va cd xu hudng cao len qua cac quy.
Nhu vay, tang trudng kinh td' chung, ndu nam trudc roi xudng day vao quy 1, sau dd thoat ddy vugt ddc di len, thi nam nay tid'p tuc \ugt ddc di Idn va dang trdn dudng tid'n tdi phiic hdi.
Hai. Tang trudng GDP dat dugc d ca 3 nhdm nganh vd deu tang eao hon tdc do tang ciia ciing ky nam trude. Nhdm nganh ndng, lam nghiep- thuy san 9 thang tang 2.89% so vdi 1,6% da giii cho nen kinh te dugc on dinh; trien \'gng ca nam tang trdn 3%, cao hon tdc dd tang 1,83% ciia nam 2009. Nhdm nganh cdng nghidp- xay dung 9 thang tang 7,29% so vdi 4,5%; tridn vgng ca nam tang 7.6%, cao hon nhieu so \di tdc do tang 5,52% ciia nam 2009, cao hon tdc do tang chung. trong dd cdng nghiep ndu
nam trudc xudng sau nhdt, thi nam nay da vugt ddc di Idn va tid'n tdi phuc hdi nhanh nhdt. Nhdm nganh dich vu 9 thang tang 7,24% so vdi 5,9%; trien vgng ca nam tang 7,5%, cao ban tdc do tang 6.63% ciia nam trudc va cao hon tdc do tang chung.
Ba. tang trudng kinh td'do ca cdc ydu to d ddu vao va cd cdc ydu td d ddu ra.
O ddu vao, rd nhat la vd'n ddu tu phdt trid'n. Tdng vd'n ddu tu phat trien loan xa hdi thuc hien udc dat 602,8 nghin ty ddng, tang 19,2% so vdi ciing ky nam trude- mdt tdc do tang hiem thdy trong nhieu nam qua. Ty Id vd'n dau tu phat trien so vdi GDP udc dat 44,2%- mdt ty Id thudc loai cao trong mdy nam nay va day la ydu to vat chdt true tiep quydt dinh tdc do tang trudng kinh td'. Vide vd'n ddu tu tang vdi tdc do cao vd dat ty Id eao so vdi GDP la mdt cd gdng Idn trong vide thu hiit vd'n tit cae ngudn; trong dieu kidn tang trudng kinh te vira thoat ddy vugt ddc di Idn dd tid'n tdi phuc hdi (chu chua phai la da phuc hdi), thi
TRAN BAO
cd gdng dd la rat cdn thiet. Trong tong vdn ddu tu phat tridn toan xa hdi, thi vd'n ddu tu ciia khu vuc nha nudc tang trudng eao nhdt, cao gap rudi tdc do tang chung (tang 30,2%), dua ty trgng cua ngudn vd'n nay tir miic cao thii hai ciia ciing ky len miic cao nhdt trong 3 khu vuc (chid'm 37,6%). Tuy ngudn vd'n ddu tu cua khu vuc ngoai nha nudc tang thdp ban (17%) vd ty trgng bi giam (tir 37,7% cua eiing ky nam trudc giam xudng cdn 36,8% trong ky nay), nhung tfnh chung ca 2 ngudn trdn vdn tang 23,3%, cao ban tdc do tang chung; ty trgng trong tong vdn ddu tu phat tridn toan xa hdi vdn cao ban ciing ky nam trudc (74,4% so vdi 72,3%). Didu dd the hidn vai trd cua ngudn ndi luc, ddng thdi cOng la su can thidt trong didu kien ngudn vd'n ddu tu trire tiep nudc ngoai (FDI) tuy lugng vd'n dang ky bd sung bi sut gidm, nhung lugng vd'n dang ky cua cac du an mdi lai tang kha (dat 11,4 ty USD, tang 37,3%c); giai ngan udc thuc hidn 8,05 ty USD, tang 4,8%. Ngudn vd'n T 6 C D O TANG GDP QUA CAC QUt NAM 2009, 2010
7.18 6.64
6.041 i&m
^ • • '
£ 1 ,•2010 • 2009
Quy I QuyD Quyin 9 thdng
So 20/2010
2 2 Kinh te v a Dit bao
NGHIEN CLTU - TRAO DOI
hd trg phat tridn chi'nh thirc (ODA) udc thuc hidn 1.920 tridu USD, tang
11 % so vdi ciing ky. Ngudn vdn dau tu gian tid'p (FII) 9 thang udc dat trdn 500 tridu USD.
0 dau ra, tang trudng cao dat dugc ca ve tidu thu trong nudc va xuai khdu. Tieu thu trong nudc the hidn chil yd'u d tdng mire ban le hang hod vd doanh thu dich vu tidu diing (ggi tat la TMBL) vd xudt khdu. TMBL dat dugc sir vugt trdi trdn nhidu mat. Mdt mat, mdi qua 9 thang, quy md da dat 1.146,2 nghin ty ddng, binh quan 1 ngudi 1 thang dat khoang 1,47 tridu ddng- mot con so kha cao ma trong cac thdi gian trudc day va d khu vuc ndng thdn, d nhieu dia ban, d nhidu nhdm dan eu khd ma tudng tugng ndi.
Dieu dd chirng id co cdu lieu diing cd sir thay doi dang ehii y: ly trgng bd phan dan eu cd thu nhap cao, ty trgng tidu diing nhdm hang hoa dich vu cd gia tri cad, ty trgng tidu diing ciia dan cu d nhirng dia ban Idn,... chid'm ty trgng ngay mdt cao.
Mai khac, tdc do tang so vdi ciing ky ciia TMBL kha cao, Idn dd'n 25,4%, nd'u loai trir ye'u id tang gia lidu diing binh quan so vdi cimg ky (8,64%) thi vdn cdn tang tdi 15,4%.
Day la tdc do Uing cao gap rudi tdc do tang tuong iing 10,2% ciia ciing ky nam trudc, vira cao gap 2,5 Idn tdc do tang tardng kinh le. Ca 2 mat nay da chimg td TMBL da trd thanh ddng lue eiia tang trudng kinh te, ddng thai cung la "ci'ai canh" trong dieu kidn ddu lu va lidu diing trdn the gidi bi eo lai trong thdi gian khiing hoang vdn chua dugc hdi phuc. Mat khac nua, tdc do tang ciia khu vuc cd vdn ddu tu nudc ngodi cao nhdt (tang 52,5%), tid'p dd'n la ciia khu vuc tu nhan (tang 40,6%);
theo nganh thi du lich tang cao nhat (37,4%),... Day la sir chuyen dich CO cdu rat dang ehii y. Lugng khdch qudc te dd'n Viet Nam qua 9 thang da dat 3.732 nghin lugt ngudi tang tdi 34,2% so vdi ciing ky, xdp xi vdi
Xudt khdu 9 thdng ddu ndm 2010 udc dcit 51,5 ty USD quy md cua ca nam trudc.
Xudt khdu 9 thdng udc dat 51,5 ty USD, tang 23,2% so vdi ciing ky nam trudc. Day la tdc do tang vira nguge chidu vdi ciing ky nam trudc (ciing ky nam trudc giam 14,3%), vira cao gap han 3,5 Idn tdc do tang ciia GDP- mdt he sd cao hidm thay lau nay, vira cao ban nhieu so vdi tdc do tang ca nam theo kd' hoach dd ra. Tang trudng dat dugc ca d khu vuc kinh td' trong nudc (tang
19,7%), ca d khu vuc kinh td'cd vd'n ddu tu nudc ngodi (tang 26,5%);
nd'u khdng ke ddu thd bi giam, thi cac hang hod khdc ciia khu vuc nay tang rat cao (tdi 40,1%). Hau hd't cac mat hang chii ye'u ddu tang so vdi cimg ky; da ed 13 mat hang dat kim ngach tir 1 ty USD trd Idn, tang 3 mat hang so vdi ciing ky,...
Bdu, kd't qua 9 thang la tin hidu kha quan de ca nam cd the tang so vdi nam trudc, dang vd vugt kd' hoach dd ra.
Tang trudng kinh td 9 thang da dat 6,52%. Vdi xu hudng tang cao Idn qua cac quy va nhung yd'u to tac ddng trong thdi gian tdi, tang trudng GDP trong quy IV cd the dat tren 7,3% va ca nam se tang 6,7%, cao ban tdc do tang 6,5% nhu ke hoach
de ra, cao hon tdc do tang 5,32%
cua nam 2009, tdc do tang 6,31%
CLia nam 2008; tuy cdn tha'p ban tdc do tang ciia cac nam tir 2000 dd'n 2007, nhung xu hudng tid'n tdi phuc hdi la tuong ddi rd, tao dieu kidn de dd ra muc tidu tang 7,5- 8%/nam trong ke hoach 5 nam 2011-2015!
Quy md GDP nam 2009 dat 1.658,4 nghin ty ddng, nd'u tdc do tang dat 6,7%, chi so giam phdt khoang 9%, thi GDP nam 2010 cd the dat 1.928 nghin ty ddng. Vdi ty gia hdi dodi binh quan nam nay udc dat khoang 19.300 VND/USD, thi GDP tfnh bdng USD theo ty gid hdi doai binh quan nam 2010 se dat xdp XI 100 ty USD. Vdi dan sd trung binh nam 2009 dat 86.024,6 nghin ngudi, tdc do tang khoang 1,04%
thi dan so 2010 se dat khoang 86.919,3 nghin ngudi. Khi dd, GDP binh quan ddu ngudi tfnh bdng USD theo ty gia hdi dodi binh quan se dat khoang 1.149 USD. Vdi miic binh quan nay, Viet Nam da ra khdi nhdm nudc cd thu nhap thap de chuyen sang nhdm nudc cd thu nhap trung binh, mdt budc chuyen vi thd' quan trgng vao nam ban Id giira 2 thap ky, dd cud'i thap ky tdi CO ban trd thanh nudc cdng nghidp theo hudng hidn dai.
Kinh t4 v a Dit bao So 20/2010 23
NGHIEN CQu - TRAO DOI
6N DjNH KINH T^ VI MO
Tdc do tang gia lieu diing tang cao trong 3 thang ddu nam do tac ddng ciia nhu cdu lieu dimg cao Idn trong dip trudc va sau Tdi Nguydn dan. Tir thang 4 dd'n thang 8, tdc do tang da dugc kiem che d mue thdp, chi tang 0,15%/thang. Bat ngd thang 9 da tang cao tdi 1,31 %, dua tdc do tang sau 9 thang (tiic la thdng 9/2010 so vdi thdng 12/2009) Idn dd'n 6,46%. Nd'u 3 thang cdn lai cung lang bdng vdi tdc do tang ctia 3 thang cudi nam trudc (tang 2,31%, binh quan tang trdn 0,76%/thang), thi ca nam cd thd tang 8,9%. Day la canh bao dang luu y.
Nhap sidu trong 4 thang ddu nam d miifc tuong dd'i cao (1,15 ty USD/thang); da dugc kidm che' d mirc tha'p ban trong 4 thang tid'p theo (0,745 ly USD/thang, trong dd thang 8 chi cd 0,39 ly USD); nhung
thang 9 lai lang Idn d mirc 1,05 ty USD, dua long muc nhap sidu 9 thdng len 8,6 ty USD, tang khoang 20% so vdi ciing ky nam trude. Ty Id nhap sidu khoang 16,7%, thdp ban ty Id 17,1% ciia cung ky va thdp hon gidi han cho phep 20% ciia Qud'c hdi. Quy md nhap khdu 3 thang cudi nam ndu bdng miic binh quan 5 thdng qua (7,13 ty USD/thang), thi ca nam long kim ngach nhap khdu cd the len dd' 81,5 ty USD, tang khoang 16,5% so vdi nam trirdc (ddng thdi ciing vugt dinh diem 80,7 ty USD nam 2008) va nhap sidu ca nam se vao khoang 13 ty USD. Tuy mirc nhap sieu cd the tuong duong vdi ke hoach va nam trudc, nhung day la nam thii tu lidn luc vugt qua mdc 12,5 ty USD.
Day la kdi qua ctia co ca'u kinh te cd tfnh gia cdng, hidu qua va siic canh tranh cdn thdp, vide quan ly nhap khdu cdn ban che, bat cap; ddng
thdi ciing da lac ddng tieu cue ddn can can thanh loan, du trir ngoai hdi, ty gia VND/ngoai td,...
Do tang trudng kinh td cao ban, cdng tdc hanh thu tfch cue hon, ty Id thu ngan sdch so vdi Du loan ca nam dat cao hom nam trudc va eao ban ty Id tuong ung ciia chi ngan sdch, ndn ty Id bdi chi so vdi GDP dat thdp ban nam trudc va cd trid'n vgng se thdp han du toan ca nam ma Qud'c hdi da duyet.
Nhu vay, ben canh nhung kdt qua tfch cue va la tfn hidu kha quan ve tdc do, ve tfnh loan dien va kha nang dat vd vugt ke hoach ca nam, ciing cdn nhung ban chd' bat cap. Ngoai nhihig ban che bat cap vd lam phat, nhap sidu, cdn cd nhirng ban che bat cap khdc nhu mat bdng lai suat cdn cao, vide tiep can vd'n ciia cdc doanh nghiep, ddi sdng ciia nhung ngudi cd thu nhap thap cdn cd khd khan. G
Ve muc tieu dong gop cua nang suat...
(tiep ttieo trang 16)
thdp. Ty Id doanh nghidp cdng nghidp cd ky thuat- cdng nghe tidn lieii mdi dat khoang 20%, cung mdi chi bang mdt nita ty Id ciia cdc nudc trong khu vuc.
Vdi thirc trang hidu qua ddu tu, nang suai lao ddng va ky thuat- cdng nghd nhu tren, vdi mue tidu ddii nam 2020 Viet Nam co ban trd thanh nudc cdng nghiep theo hirdng hidn dai, vdi chil larong tai co cdu nen kinh te, thi vide nang cao ty trgng ddng gdp eiia yd'u td nang suat eac nhan td tdng hop nhu muc tidu trong cac Du thao Van kien Dai hdi XI la rai can thiei. Hon nua, da den liic, neu khdng nang cao chai luong tang tardng thi \ iec tang tardng theo tdc do Cli Cling khd dat dugc; bai hgc kinh nghidm ciia Viet Nam cung nhu cae nudc trdn the gidi cho thdy, dd dat muc lieu lau dai, miie lieu cudi cimg khdng chi phu thudc \'ao
tdc do tang trudng cao hidn nay ma d su ben virng, su lidn tuc ciia tdc do tang trirdng dd trong tuong lai.
Tuy nhidn, muc lieu ndu trong cac Du thao cd the ndi la qua cao, vi hai le.
Tlu'f nhd), ehi trong vdng 5 nam va 10 nam ma ty trgng ddng gdp cua vide tang nang suat cdc nhan id long hgp vao tdc do tang trudng kinh td tang nhanh tdi 6- 7 Idn va 10 didm phdn tram la khdng de dang.
Tang trirdng kinh le thdi ky 2006- 2009 dat 7%, ty trgng ddng gdp ciia yd'u Id tang nang sudt cac nhan td tong hgp khoang 25% thi tdc do tang GDP do yeu Id nang suat cac nhan td tong hgp da ddng gdp 1,75 didm phdn tram (tang vd'n lam GDP tang 3,85 didm phdn tram, tang so lugng lao ddng lam GDP tang 1,4 didm phdn tram). Muc tidu 2011-
2015, GDP tang 7,5- 8%, thi ye'u td tang nang sudt cac nhan td long hgp ddng gdp 31 - 32% se lam GDP tang 2,33- 2,56 didm phan tram (cdn 2 yd'u td tang vd'n va tang sd lugng lao ddng ddng gdp 68- 69% se lam GDP tang 5,1- 5,52 diem phdn tram). Muc tidu 2011- 2020, GDP tang 7- 8%, thi yd'u td tang nang suat cac nhan to tdng hgp ddng gdp 35% se lam GDP tang 2,45- 2,8 diem phdn tram (cdn 2 ye'u to tang vd'n vd tang sd lugng lao ddng ddng gdp 65% se lam GDP tang 4,55- 5,2 didm phdn tram).
Tlu'f hai, trong didu kidn tang trudng kinh te vira thodt day vugt ddc di len va dang tren dudng tid'n tdi phuc hdi, trong didu kidn sd lugng lao ddng vdn edn tang trdn dudi 2,5%/nam, thi ddng gdp cua yd'u to tang vdn vd tang so lugng lao ddng cdn giii vi trf rat quan trgng, chua ndn va cung chua thd thuc hidn dugc ngay vide tang nang suat cdc nhan td long hgp nhu Du thao. •
So 20/2010
24 Kinh te va Dit bao
