PHAN - K I E N N G H I
q t f , z x 9 5
QUY HOACH DIEN PHAITREN CO S6 QUY
NANG
Trong boi canh hien nay, Viet Nam dang doi mdi mo hinh tang trifdng, tai c€f cau nen kinh te de phat trien ben viirng noi chung va dang to chuTc hieu chinh Quy hoach dien VII noi rieng, viec xay dUng Quy hoacii dien liic quoc gia, cung nhiT cac phan nganh nang lUdng khac, idiong the tiieo Ideu truyen thong rieng ie, ma can thi^c hien Quy hoach nang liftfng tong the quoc gia de lam cd sd khoa hoc, phap ly cho cac quy hoach phan nganh...
the hien tinh thAn doi mdi, tiian thu Luat Dien \Uc (suTa doi 2 0 1 3 ) .
PGS, TS. BUI HUY PHUNG, Chu tjch Hoi dong Khoa hoc Nang lUOng - VEA Mddau
Trong ca qua trinh phat trien cho tdi nay, chung ta da xay dung cac quy hoach phan nganh nang laong sau: 7 Quy hoach phat trien dien lire quoc gia (QHO); 5 Quy hoach phat trien nganh than (QHT); 3 Quy hoach phat trien dau-khi (QHDK); Difthao Quy hoach nang luong tai tao (NLTT).
Cac quy hoach tren da gop phan djnh hiTdng quan trong cho sir phat trien cac phan nganh nang li/ong; Lap l<e hoach phat trien cac cong trinh nang li/dng, tao nen nhQng ca sd vat chat phuc vu phat trien KTQD; Xay diTng va hoan thien dan cac bp ti/ lieu, so lieu phuc vu ti'nh toan quy hoach va quan ly nha ni/dc ve nang li/ong.
Tuy nhien cung the hien nhieu bat cap, nganh nang lirotng c6 tinh he thong cao, nhang cac quy hoach phan nganh: dien, than, dau-khi, NLTT dupe xay diTng rieng, kha biet lap, vi vay the hien thieu dong bp:Th6i gian quy hoach chua thong nhat, chUa bao gid cac quy hoach phan nganh di/pc lap dong thdi;
Ti/ lieu, so lieu phuc vu quy hoach thieu thong nhat, thieu tin cay, thieu tham djnh; Cac noi dung quy hoach chi/a dupe xem xet, tinh toan mot each dong bp, dan tdi khap khieng, thieu thong nhat; CP cau, ty le dau ti/ chi/a hpp ly giCfa cac phan nganh, giCfa cac giai doan quy hoach; Gia ca cua cac loai nhien lieu-nang lupng la dau vao - dau ra cua nhau nhi/ng thieu sU can doi va ti/Png quan hpp ly; PhUPng phap tinh toan xay diTng quy hoach chi/a hpp ly, the hien 6 hai khia canh chinh: i) xay diTng rieng le thieu tinh he thong; ii) trong tCrng phan nganh nang lapng, tuy c6 suf dung mot so phi/png phap va cong cu hien dai, nhi/ng chua dong bp, chaa that hpp ly (nhir QH DL), mot so phan nganh khac chu yeu sCf dung phi/png phap thu cong, dPn gian.
Tt
$
Nganh nang liTdng c6 tinh he thong cao, nhufng cac quy hoach phan nganh: dien, than, dau-khi, NLTT diTdc xay dung rieng, kha biet lap, vi vay the hien thieu dong bo: Thdi gian quy hoach chifa thong nhat, chifa bao gid cac quy hoach phan npanh diTcfc lap dong thdi; Tif lieu, so lieu phuc vu quy hoach thieu thong nhat, thieu tin cay, thieu tham djnh... • •
Quy djnh cua Luat Oien liTc suTa doi 2013
Chinh VI nhufng ton tai bat cap noi tren, nhieu quy hoach phan nganh chi thuc hien dirpc vai ba nam da phai siia doi, hieu chinh.
De khac phuc tinh trang nay, Luat Oien ILTC sCra doi 2013 da quy djnh Quy hoach Oien luc Quoc gia tai Khoan 1 va khoan 3 Dieu 8 di/pc sCfa doi, bo sung nhi/sau:"Quy hoach phat trien dien lac la quy hoach chuyen nganh, bao gom Quy hoach phat trien Oien lire Quoc gia va quy hoach phat trien dien li/c tinh, thanh pho trifc thupcTrung upng. Quy hoach phat then dien luc di/Pc lap, phe duyet de lam cp sd cho cac hoat dong dau tiT phat trien dien lire va di/Pc dieu chinh phu hpp vdi dieu kien kinh te - xa hoi trong tCrng thdi ky. Quy hoach phat trien dien li/c phai hpp vdi quy hoach cac nguon nang laang so cap cho phat dien, gom ca nguon nang li/png mdi, nang ii/png tai tao va c6 tinh den quy hoach khac cd lien quan theo quy djnh cua phap luat."
B NANG LL/DNG VIET NAM (so 110 + 111 thang 7+8/2014)
PHANBIEN [- KIEN NGHI
Vdi quy djnh nay, cac quy hoach phan nganh nang li/png no!
chung va quy hoach dien liTc quoc gia noi rieng phai tuan thu quy hoach nang liTpng tong the quoc gia, nghla la phai hpp vdi quy hoach cac nguon nang lupng sp cap.
Quy hoach dien VII va nhuTng thach thufc
Sau day xin phan tich doi net the hien tinh thieu thong nhat, bat cap khi xay diTng quy hoach rieng le, cu the hon cd the xem [9].
7. Nhu cau dien theo QHD VII [1,2]
Nhu cau dien i SX&NK, ty
kWh
194-210 330-362 695-834
Vdi nhu cau nay cho thay:
- Ci/dng dp dien doi vdi GDP (kWh/USD) hien nay d nhieu nu-dc deu be han 1, Viet Nam nhieu nam qua xap xi 1 da la cao, nay dii bao ngay cang idn, 1,5-2, thut lui so vdi ca chinh minh!
- Ve he so dan hoi dien, hien nay, Viet Nam khoang 1,6-1,7, theo yeu cau den nam 2020 giam xuong 1, vdi ket qua du bao tren la khong the giam dirpc.
2. Nguon, ludi dien phai xay dang don dap
Ket qua tinh toan nguon vdi phu'Png an cP sd, cd the tdm tat may con so chinh sau day:
+ Giai doan 2011-2015, tong cong suat nguon 43.150MW (tang so vdi 2010 la 22.890MW, moi nam tang gan 5000MW).
+ Giai doan den 2020, tong cong suat nguon 75.000MW trong dd nhiet dien than 32.500MW (46%).
+ Nang li/png tai tao trong tong san xuat dien dat 4,5% vao 2020,6% vao 2030.
-I- Oien hat nhan dii kien se vao lam viec nam 2021, khoang 2000MW va den 2030 se cd tong cong suat khoang 10.OOOMW, 2025 tong cong suat nguon 97.000MW, trong dd nhiet dien than 45.200MW (46%).
+ Giai doan den 2030, tong cong suat nguon 146.000MW, trong do, nhiet dien than 77.300MW (52%), dien san xuat 695 ty kWh, vdi phi/ang an cao la 834 ty kWh.
+ Nang lu'gfng tai tao san xuat dien dat 4,5% vao 2020,6% vao 2030.
3. Yeu cau than cho san xuat dien Idn va chifa ro nguon cung cap [1,2]
SLthan thuang pham, tr. tan!
Nhu cau than cho dien,
tr.tin Thieu hut
52
32
4
i "^1
78
42
101
118
57
[10
190
127
Ooi vdi Viet Nam, tdi day than di/pc sCr dung nhieu de san xuat dien la hpp ly, nhi/ng d miJc dp nao la phu hpp can di/cJc tinh toan ky.
4. Yeu cau nhgp LNG dephat dien, trong khi chaa cd lugn chiJmg cu the, hien nay gid LNG khoang 750USD/tdn, tufc khoang
18USD/1 tr.BTU, vdi gid nay, chi tien nhien lieu dd Id khoang 11- 12cents/kWh.
5. Yeu cau dau taldn vd thieu can doi
De dam bao thiic hien khoi lupng da de ra, QH OVIl, yeu cau von dau tu khong 16.
Giai doan 2011-2020: tong dau tU 48,8 ty USD, trong do li/di 33%, 5 ty$/n.
Giai doan 2021 -2030: tong dau tU 75 ty USD, trong dd li/di 34%:
7.5 ty$/n.
Trong khi do, tri/dc day nganh than chi dau tU moi nam 400- 500 trieu USD, vdi QH-2012, binh quan moi nam khoang 1 ty USD, nhu vay cd hpp ly?
6. Vdi nhang ly do tren, QHDVII dang dagc to chac hieu chinh Quy hoach nang lupng tong the quoc gia la cP sd khoa hoc, phap ly cho quy hoach dien luc quoc gia [7,8,9].
Quy hoach nang liTOng tong the quoc gia (QHNLTT) Theo quan diem ly thuyet he thong, nganh nang lupng la mot he thong idn, trong do bao gom cac doi tupng nang lupng (ham mo, cP sd san xuat che bien, van tai, xuat-nhap, tieu thu nang lupng...), hoat dong va phat trien khong ngCrng tren cP sd cac moi quan he vat ly-ky thuat, bien doi va thay the Ian nhau (dupe gpi la cac moi quan he trong) va cac moi quan he vdi cac nganh kinh te quoc dan khac va moi trudng (dupe gpi la cac moi quan he ngoai), nham cung cap nang lupng hieu qua va ben vUng.
Ve phan cap, he thong nang lupng (HTNL), dupe phan cap theo chuyen nganh gom: phan nganh dien, than, dau-khi, nang lupng tai tao, nang lupng hat nhan (cung cd the ghep vao phan nganh dien) va phan cap theo quy mo lanh tho: quoc gia, vung, cac trung tarn.
QHNLTT la budc dau tien, la cP sd de xay dUng quy hoach cac phan nganh nang lupng, la tien de cho ke hoach xay dung co sd ha tang nang lUpng. Bdi vay no la cp sd khoa hpc va theo phap quy xay dUng quy hoach nd con la cP sd phap ly cho cac quy hoach phan nganh.
Noi dung cP ban cua QHLNTT: Xuat phat tCr tinh hinh phat trien kinh te - nang lupng quoc te, chien iupc phat trien KT-XH cua dat nude, dieu kien cac nguon nang lupng trong va ngoai nude (than, dau, khi, thuy nang, nang lupng tai tao, nang iuong hat nhan..), tinh thay the Ian nhau giiJa chung, tien bp khoa hpc - cong nghe va yeu cau bao ve moi trUdng, tinh toan va xay dung phUPng an hpp ly phat then he thong nang lupng hieu qua, ben vUng trong suot thdi gian quy hoach.
Bang phUPng phap khoa hpc va cong cu tinh toan hien dai, ma hien nay d Viet Nam da 6uac chuyen giao va nghien cufu, CO the giai quyet dupe bai toan Idn nay, mot so phUPng phap va cong cu cd the ke tdi sau day.
N A N G
Ll/OXG VIET NAM (so 110 + 111 thang 7+8/2014) H
PHANBIEN
Viet Nam dang doi mdi mo hinh tang
V'i-trirdng, tai ccf cau nen kinh te de phat trien ben vCfng noi chung va dang to chiifc hieu chinh QHDVII noi rieng; viec xay dung Quy hoach dien lire quoc gia, cung nhu cac phan nganh nang lUdng khac, khong the theo kieu truyen thong
rieng le, ma can thuc hien QHNLTTQG de lam cof sd khoa hoc va phap ly cho cac quy hoach phan nganh, dam bao tinh
dong bo, hai hoa; nhu vay m6i the hien tinh than doi mcf'i, tinh dot pha, tuan thu
Luat Dien luc sura doi 2013.
Ve du bao, nhu cau nang lUpng ndi chung va dien ndi rieng, cd the siJdung phUPng phap va phan mem phan tich danh gia nhu cau nang lupng MEDEE (Model d'evalution de la de- mande d'energie), hoac phUPng phap rut gpn -MAED (The Model of Analysis of the Energy Demand) [4] va phoi hpp vdi vai phUPng phap khac nhu kinh te lupng, he so dan hoi...
Ve tinh toan can doi, phat trien nguon nang luong cd the suf dung phUPng phap toi Uu dong nang lUpng-EFOM-ENV [5], phUPng phap chien lUPc cung cap nang Iupng-MESSAGE[6], MAKAL, PDPAT...
Mot so phUPng phap ho trp quyet djnh phoi hdp vdi phUPng phap chuyen gia phan tich va de nghj phUng an kha thi [7,8].
NhuTng ket qua chinh c6 the nhan diTOc
+ Nhu cau nhien lieu - nang lUpng cho cac linh vUc tieu thu cho cac giai doan quy hoach.
+ Xac djnh cP cau cac nguon nhien lieu - nang lUpng can sCf dung cho tilng giai doan.
+ Ojnh hudng cP cau von dau tU giOfa cac phan nganh nang lUcfng theo cac giai doan.
-I- Xac djnh dupe cac cong nghe nang luong chu yeu.
-I- Xac djnh chi phi bien cua cac loai nhien lieu - nang lupng.
-I- Xac djnh luong phat thai khi nha kinh, dinh hudng bien phap bao ve moi trudng va an ninh nang luong.
+ La tU lieu - so lieu dau vao de xay dung cac quy hoach phan nganh.
Vdi nhufng ket qua dat duoc ndi tren se la tU lieu dau vao de dong thdi/tiep theo to chufc tinh toan quy hoach dien lUc quoc
gia (phan nganh dien), noi dung theo luat dien lUc da quy djnh chi tiet, phuong phap tinh toan da ducfc nganh dien suf dung lau nay. Qua trinh tinh toan nay cd the dupc lap lai cho tdi khi quy hoach tong the va phan nganh dUOc danh gia la hai hoa, hpp ly.
Kinh nghien cua Han Quoc, viTa qua, trong khuon kho Duf an Chinh sach cong, hpp tac giOra Bp ke hoach va Oau tU Han Quoc [10], Han Quoc cho biet, hp cd quan diem nhat quan tis nam 1960 den nay ve sU ket noi giOfa chinh sach nang lupng va chien luoc phat trien KT-XH, theo tCrng giai doan dam bao cung cap on djnh nang lUpng, an ninh, bao ve moi trUdng. Cu the hp xay dung QHTTNL quoc gia 20 nam, xay dUng cac nguyen tac CO ban, chien lUpc trung va dai han, 5 nam ra soat mot Ian, gan day la 2008 va 2013.
Kien nghj
Trong boi canh hien nay, Viet Nam dang doi mdi mo hinh tang trudng, tai cP cau nen kinh te de phat trien ben vOfng ndi chung va dang to chiifc hieu chinh QHOVII ndi rieng; viec xay dUng Quy hoach dien lUc quoc gia, cung nhU cac phan nganh nang lupng khac, khong the theo kieu truyen thong rieng le, ma can thuc hien QHNLTTQG de lam co sd khoa hpc va phap ly cho cac quy hoach phan nganh, dam bao tinh dong bp, hai hoa; nhU vay mdi the hien tinh than doi mdi, tinh dot pha, tuan thu Luat Oien luc sCra doi 2013.
Hien nay, Viet Nam cd dieu kien ca ve to chufc, nhan lUc, cP sd vat chat de thUc hien cong tac nay, de nghj Bp Cong Thuong to chufc tap hpp cac dPn vj lien quan tham gia nhU: Vien chien Iupc - Bp KH&OT; Vien Chien lupfc Cong nghiep - BCT; Vien Khoa hpc Nang lupng -Vien HLKH&CNVN; Vien Nang luong - BCT va cac don vj lien quan khac, cung nhau phoi hop thUc hien.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAC 1. QHD VII, 7-2011.
2. QHphdt trien nganh than VN, 1-2012.
3. Bao cdo tham dinh QHDVII, 12-2010.
4. Model for Analysis of Energy Demand-MAED, IAEA, Vien- 1986.
5. Methodological Guide-EFOM-ENV, United Nations, 1992.
6. Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their Gen- eral Environmental Impacts-MESSAGE, IAEA, 2003.
7. Bill Huy Phung vd cs.Nghien cufu phaang an tong thekhai thdc vd sCf dung hap ly cac nguon tdi nguyen nang laang VN,BCDT thuoc CTKH&CN trong diem. Bg CN, GD 2001-2005- Vien KH&CN VN, 8-2005.
8. Bui Huy Phung, Phaang phap tinh toan TU phat trien ben vOng HTNL, NXB KH&KT, Hd noi 2011.
9. Bui Huy Phung, QHNLUQG Id ca so khoa hoc vd phap Ii cua cac QHphan ngdnh nang lagng, TCNLVN,S6(8,9) 2012.
10. Tae Yong Jung, Chinh sach Nang lagng ben vQng d VN, DA Chinh sach c6ng,VN-HQ, HTHd noi, 3-2014.
