Nghien aiuAnBdvd Chdu A. Sd 06 - 2014
CHINH SACH "HOA BINH VA THINH VUONG"
CUA ROH MOO HYUN DOI VOd TIEN TRINH HOA GIAI LIEN TRIEU
Phan Thi Anh Thu'
r
it sau khi nudc Dgi Hdn Ddn Qudc (ggi tdt la Hdn Qudc) ra ddi vdo ngdy 15/8/1948, nhiing the he lanh dgo ddu tien da tich cue theo dudi chinh sdch ddi ngoai ngd theo phuang Tdy, chit trgng quan he vdi My vd cdc qudc gia ddng minh Tdy Au. Tuy nhien, tir sau Chien tranh Ignh, ddu hieu dm ddn len dig cdc mdi quan he qudc te dd dinh hudng ro linh chdt cdn bdng vd hda diu trong chinh sdch ciia Hdn Qudc vdi cdc nudc trong khu vuc, trong dd co CHDCND Trieu Tien. Chinh vi dieu ndy, lien Irinh hda gidi lien Trieu ciing dugc cdc the he lanh dgo Hdn Qudc ra sire Ihuc ddy tif cudi thdp nien 80 cua thi ky XX vd dgt dugc thdnh luu dinh cao vdo Ihdi ky cdm quyen ciia Roh Moo Hyun (2003 - 2008). Vdi vi^c di ra chinh sdch "Hda binh vd thinh vugng", trong do coi gidi phdp hda binh vd ddi thogi la nhiem vu sdng cdn trong viec gidi quyet vdn de hat nhdn, Roh Moo Hyun dd khdng ngimg thuc ddy tien Irinh hda gidi lien Trieu vd dieu hda tinh hinh chinh tri vdn nhiiu bdt dn tren bdn ddo Trieu Tien.
Tit khda: Roh Moo Hyun, chinh sach "hoa binh vd thinh vupng", boa gidi lien Trieu
Ddu ndm 2003, Roh Moo Hyun chinh thdng Roh xac dinh la "chia khda" cho thiic bit diu nhiem ky Tdng thdng cimg vdi cd ba vin de; giai quyet cuOc khiing cam kit "biln bdn dap Trieu Tien ttd thdnh hoang hat nhan tren ban ddo Trilu Tien, noi phdt ra thdng diep hda binh ket ndi duy tri sy dn dinh cua mdi quan he lien viing dit A - Au rpng ldn vdi Thai Binh Trilu va thilt lap mOt trat tu hda binh d khu Duang"'. Giai phdp ddi thoai dupc Tdng vuc Ddng Bdc A. Dinh hudng chinh sdch
President Roh Moo-hyun's Inaugural Address, February 25, 2003, Yonhap News Agency - Seoul,
^ NCS., Lich sii the gii^ri, D?i hpc Hue. received from BBC Monitoring.
45
Phan Thi Anh Thu. Chinh sdch "hoa binh va thinh vuang"...
ndy cua Roh Moo Hyim dupc xay dyng tten ca sd vda kl thira thdnh tuu, vira khic phuc han chi ttong tien ttinh hda gidi dan tdc ciia nhiing ngudi tien nhiem.
1. Nhin Iai tien trinh hoa giai lien Trieu trudc thdi Tdng thong Roh Moo Hyun
Khi thdi dai ddi diu da nhucmg chd cho ky nguyen hda hpp, Chinh phu Hdn Qudc nhanh chdng dieu chinh chinh sdch thii dich vdi CHDCND Trilu Tien bing dudng ldi ngoai giao hieu hda vd than thifn. Tdng thing Roh Tae Woo da khep lai thdi ky "bdng gid" ttong quan he lien Trilu bdng chinh sdch "Ngoai giao phucmg Bdc" vdi myc tieu day manh tien trinh hda gidi dan tdc vd cdi thien quan he vdi cdc nudc xa hOi chu nghTa, ttong dd cd CHDCND Trilu Tien. Nhd vdo nd luc nay, hai miin da chinh thdc thira nhdn ldn nhau vd ddng thudn ky kit "Hifp dinh ca bdn Bic - Nam" hay "Hipp dinh vl hda gidi, khdng xdm lupc, trao ddi vd hpp tdc"
(ngay 13/12/1991) vdi tuyen bd khdng su dung lyc lupng vti ttang de chdng ddi ldn nhau vd gidi quyet mpi bat ddng ndy sinh thdng qua ddi thoai . Hiep dinh cd y nghTa tao dyng nen mdng cho qud trinh hda giai hai mien vd nhen nhdm hy vpng ve mdt bdn ddo Trieu Tien khdng tieng siing.
Mong mudn ndy hoan todn cd ca sd khi hai chinh phu tilp tuc dat dupc "Tuyen bd
Ministry of Unification (MOU), Republic of Korea White Paper on Korean Unification (1996),
"Agreement on Reconciliation, Nonaggression, Exchanges and Cooperation between ifie South and the North", The Major Documents on Inh-a-Korean Relations, p. 200-207.
chimg vl phi hat nhan hda ban ddo Trieu Tien" (ngay 31/12/1991) vdi nOi dung cung cam kit khdng san xuit, tdng trii va su dyng vu khi hat nhan; khdng xdy dyng cdc ca sd chi biln hat nhdn vd ldm gidu uranium^. Quan he giiia hai miin Trilu Tien da dupc cai thifn dang ke tit sau khi chmh sdch "Ngoai giao phuang Bdc" » ddi. Sy xich lai gin nhau cua hai thdi cyc hodn todn trdi ddu trong khu vyc vdo dau thap nien 90 dupc coi la kit cue cd hdu ciia mdt dudng ldi ngoai giao hda binh. Tuy nhien, vdo thdi diem cac thilt bi tai xu ly hat nhan vd lam giau uranium cua CHDCND Trilu Tien bi Ca quan Ndng lupng Nguyen tit Qudc tl (IAEA) phdt gidc cung vdi nhiing cdng bd ciia My vS hinh dnh nha may hat nhdn tfi Ypngbyon (thdng 5/1992), CHDCND Trilu Tien dd cdng khai y dinh phdn bOi Tuyen bd chung ve phi hat nhan hda ban dao Trieu Tidn da ky kit vdi Hdn Qudc (1992) vd don phucmg nit khdi Hiep udc Khdng pho bien vQ khi hat nhan - NPT (1993). Bi thuc ep bdi gidi phap "trimg phat" CHDCND Trieu Tien cua My vd lien tyc gdnh chiu dp lyc chien ttanh tir mien Bdc, Tdng thdng kl nhiem Kim Young Sam da khdng cdn kien nhan de duy tri chinh sach mem deo, nhan nhuang vdi CHDCND Trilu Tien. Ong de ra chien lupc "Ngoai giao mtii", cung cd chinh sach can dy vd li8n tuc dua ra nhung cdnh bdo ve nguy ca chien ttanh, nguy ca tuyet giao quan h§
thucmg mai, du ljch giiia hai nudc. Chinh
^ The Minish7 of National Defense, The Republic of Korea, Defense White Paper 1991-1992, p. 25.
46
Nghi&n cuu An Dp vd Chdu A. S6 06 - 2014
sach ciia Kim Young Sam it nhidu chiu anh hucmg cua 16i tu duy tCr thai Chiln tranh 1 ^ boi Han Qu6c vIn mgt muc mudn thau tom, kh6ng chS, co lap CHDCND Trilu Tien bang cac giai phap c^nh tranh, gay siic ep va de dpa xung dot vu trang. Sir trong cha vao ket qua sup d6 che dp 6 mien Bac khien cho tien trinh hoa giai dan toe bi chung lai dang kl nlu khong muon noi la gan nhu "dong bang".
Du(ffi tac dong cua chinh sach "Ngoai giao m6i", s6 luang cac cuoe doi thoai true tiep giQa Han Quoc va CHDCND Trieu Tien tham chi con khong vugrt qua con so 15 so vdi thanh tieh 82 lan cua Chinh phii tien nhi?m Roh Tae Woo*. Nam 1998, Kim Dae Jung len nam quyen a Han Quoc, tuyen b6 tuyet giao vai chinh sach ngan c h ^ cua nguai tien nhi?m, tiep can chinh sdch loi keo chii dpng, tung buac thay dli chi dp a mien Bac thong qua con duong hoa giai va hpp tac kinh te. Dung y nay ciia Kim Dae Jung dupc due nit tir chuy?n ngy ngon "Gio Bac va Mat trai" ciia Aesop. Trong do, "Mat trai" la bleu trung cho chinh sach ngoai giao "Anh Duong"
v6i m\ic tieu van dpng, loi keo miin Bac mis ciia va cai each xa hpi. Con "Gio Bac"
d^i di?n cho nhung chinh sach doi ngoai truyin thing ciia Han QuIc voi chii truang CO I^p va cim van miin BSc xa hoi chii nghia. Nho quan dilm nh^t quan trong vi^c thyc hien chinh sach bao dung vai CHDCND Trilu Tien, Han QuIc da mang l^i m$t hhx khong khi than thien va cai ma
chua tung co trong tiln trinh hoa giai lien Trilu. Tren co so do, din thang 4/2000, hai miin Nam - Bac bit ngo dat dupc thoa thuan ve viec noi lai Hpi nghi Thupng dinh lien Trilu. Sau nhieu thap ky dli diu, uoc nguyen ciia nhan dan hai miin Nam - Bac ve viec xay dung mpt quoc gia on dinh, thong nhat tren tinh than dan tpc tu quyet da thiic diy cupc gap go lich su giua Tong thong Han Quoc Kim Dae Jung va Tong Bi thu Dang Lao dpng Trieu Tien Kim Jong II tai Binh Nhuang (ngay 13/6/2000). Lan dau tien sau han niia the ky chia cat, hai nha lanh dao Trieu Tien da CO cupc hpi dam chinh thiic tai Hpi nghj thuang dinh lien Trieu tren tinh than dpe lap, hoa binh va dai doan ket dan tpc nham giai quyet bon van de chung: hoa giai va tai thong nhat; ngan chan doi dau giua hai mien; doan tu cac gia dinh ly tan va hpp tac phat trien kinh te - xS hpi^. Vai thai dp on hoa va than thi?n, Kim Dae Jung da thuylt phuc CHDCND Trieu Tien mo cua, cai each nham thiic day dau tu kinh te, hpp tac du lich va vi?n trp nhan dao. Hai nha lanh dao cung dat dupc thoa thuan trong viec cung xay dung cac tuyen duang sat, duong biln va duong khong noi lien vT tuy In 38**. Hpi nghi thupng dinh vao thang 6/2000 da gop phin bien quan he lien Trilu tu dli diu, thu dich sang hoa giai, hpp tac; qua do, nit ngin chang duong dai trong tiln trinh hoa hpp dan tpc. Du iuon
* Choi WK (1997), "The Sad Fate of Icarus: The Kim Young Sam's Governments Policy Toward North KoTea", Korea and fVorld Politics, 14 (2), p. 189-212.
' White Paper on Korean Unification (1996), Peace and Cooperation, Chapter 1: Inter-Korean Summit and the Opening of a New Era of Reconciliation and Cooperation, II. Progress of inler-Korean Summit and the June 15 Joint Declaration, p. 36-38.
47
Phan Thi Anh Thu. Chinh sdch "hda binh vd thinh vugng".
duoc lua chon id phuang dn ddu tien va duy nhdt de khac phuc tinh trang ddi ddu ttong quan he lien Trieu nhung bdn than Kim Dae Jung va chinh sdch "Anh Duong" ciing phdi ddi mat vdi ichdng it sdng gid do nhdng be bdi ve tai chinh. Vdi tiet If nha lanh dao Bdc Trieu Tien Kim Jong II da bi mat bd ra it nhdt 500 ttieu USD de tiep ddn Kim Dae Jung trudc hoi nghj thuang dinh hdi thdng 6, cdn tap dodn kinh te sd mot Han Qudc - Hyundai phdi thanh khoan 600 trieu USD cho cdc du an kinh te cua miSn Bdc, chinh sach "Anh Duong" da bi khdng it ngudi len dn vd ngd vuc. Nghiem ttong ban, gidi phdp "ngoai giao chi phieu" cdn giup Binh Nhuang linh hoat trong van de tai chinh vd cd di8u kien duy tri chucmg trinh vu khi hat nhan cung nhu bi mat ldm giau uranium. Day qua thft Id nhimg thach thuc to ldn ttong ti& trinh hda giai lien TriSu md Hdn Qudc phai khdc phuc vd vugt qua.
2. Chinh sach ciia Roh Moo Hyun doi vol tien trinh hda giai lien Trieu
Khdng phdi ngdu nhien ma chinh quySn Roh Moo Hyun quygt tam theo dudi chinh sdch "Hda binh vd thinh vuong" dua tren chinh sdch "Anh Duong" vg hda giai vd hgp tdc cua Kim Dae Jung. Lira chon nay hoan todn xudt phat tir thuc tien phdt trien kinh te va cai cdch chinh tri - xa hgi luc bdy gid d Han Qudc. Thanh tuu tang trudng kinh te vao nhung ndm 1960 vd 1970, ddi mdi chinh trj vdo nhiing ndm 1980, toan cau hda va phdt triSn cong nghe thdng tin vdo nhOng ndm 1990, phuc hdi sau cugc khung hodng ngoai hdi cudi ndm 48
1990 vd td chuc thdnh cdng Gidi vd djch bdng da thd gidi vdo ndm 2002 da lam gia tang sue manh dan tgc vd s\I tu tin ciia ngudi Han Qudc. Chinh quyen Roh Moo Huyn coi ddy la nhiing tien de cdn bdn dl nudc ndy tiep tuc khdng dinh vai ttd, vj thg mdi cua minh ttong khu vuc va tao dyng mgt ky nguyen hda binh - thinh vugng cho bdn ddo Trieu Tien. Ben canh dd, nhiing thdnh tuu ttong chinh sdch Bac Tridu Ti8n dudi thdi Kim Dae Jung cung Id mdt nhdn td quan ttong khdng thd bd qua bdi su kS thua va phdt trien ket qua hgp tdc lien Tri6u tir sau Hdi nghi thugng dinh (2000) cd thj tao ra budc dot pha cho kich ban tdi thdng nhdt cua Roh Moo Hyun.
Vdi mong mudn thuc ddy hda gidi ttong cgng ddng dan tgc TriSu Tien, chinh sdch "Hda binh va thinh vugng" hudng den viec gidi quyet hai muc tieu ca bdn: mgt la, thuc ddy hda binh tten ban dao Trilu Tien;
hai Id, thuc day su thinh vutjfng chung cho ca hai miin, tich cue gdp phdn vdo su thjnh vugng d khu vuc Ddng Bdc A^ Bi th\rc hien nhiing muc tieu dd, chinh quySn Roh Moo Hyun dua ra bdn nguyen tdc: (1) giai quyet tranh chdp thong qua ddi thoai; (2) hgp tac lien Tridu tten ca sd hiSu biSt vd co di cd lai; (3) hgp tdc qudc tS tren ca sd hai mien Trieu Tien ddng vai trd chu dao; (4) md rgng su tham du cua nhan ddn, nang cao tinh minh bach vd tranh thu su ung hf
Ministry of Unification, Republic of Korea, White Paper on Korean Unification (2005), Chapter I.
Promoling lite Policy of Peace and Prosperity, p. 17
Nghien cihi An Dp vd Chdu A. S6 06 - 2014
cua cac Dang phai'. NhGng muc tieu va nguyen tac noi tren g6p phSn duy tri mpt co che hpip tac biah dSng giiJa cac quoc gia trong khu vuc, han che su can du ciia cac thyc the ben ngoai, kiem soat mat trai ciia vien trp kinh tS va dua van de hoa giai lien Trieu tro thanh npi dung chu dao trong chinh sach doi ngoai ciia Han Quoc. Trong suit chien dich tranh cii ciia minh, Roh Moo Hyun Iuon nhan manh: "Chinh sach Anh Duong la can thiet va phai dupc tiep tuc vi s\i song con va thinh vupng cua quoc gia"^. Viec duy tri "chinh sach rang buoc"
vdi Binh Nhuong tu thoi Kim Dae Jung v6n xuat phat tir nhan thuc rSng hoa giai, hpp tac la con duong ngan nhat de tiep can va thay d6i Nha nuoc Trieu Tien. Chinh sach nay dua tren quan diem su dam bao dai song kinh xk. va chinh tri 6 mi6n Bac se gia tang tinh phy thupc ciia CHDCND Trieu Tien vao thi gioi ben ngoai, tu do, bupc qu6c gia nay phai thay doi thai dp va hanh vi ciia minh. Tuy nhien, muc tieu
"ciing c6 hoa binh tren ban dao Trilu Tien, tim kiem s\r thinh vupng chung cho ca hai miSn va dua Han Qu6c tra thanh trung tam kinh t^ o Dong Bic A"^ kho long thuc hien niu nin tang thdng nhit hoa binh con chua dupc thiit lap. Lo so nguy ca chien tranh giua hai miin, ngay tu diu Roh Moo Hyun da c\r tuy§t cac giai phap ran de va trung
' Ministry of Unification, Republic of Korea, White Paper on Korean Unification (2005), Chapter I:
Promoting the Policy of Peace and Prospecrily, p. 17 ' Ministry of Unification, Seoul (3/2003), The Participatory Governments Policy of Peace and Prosperity (in Korean), p. 32.
' Ministry of Unification, Seoul (3/2003), The Participatory Governments Policy of Peace and Prosperity (in Korean), p. 2.
phat CHDCND Trieu Tien"^. Chinh quyin cua ong ra sue phan doi cac cupc tan cong quan su cua My doi vai mien Bac du muc dich ciia no la nham giai quyet van de hat nhan tren ban dao Trieu Tien. Ngay trong cupc bau cii Tong thong, Roh Moo Hyun da bay to thai dp that vpng khi chinh quyen My va nhung nguoi iing hp chinh sach hieu chien cong khai noi ve cupc tan cong phu dau Bac Trieu Tien". Trong tuyen bo ve chinh sach doi voi Bac Trieu Tien tai Los Angeles va chau Au (thang 11/2004), Tong thong Roh Moo Hyun con chi trich thai dp
"dieu hau" ciia chinh quyen Bush va tii choi gay ap luc len chinh quyen mien BSc''^. Lua chpn giai phap hoa binh vi cho ring chien thuat trimg phat va gay ap luc CO thi kich dpng chien tranh, Roh Moo Hyun tham chi con lam ngo voi chuang trinh phat triin vii khi hat nhan cua Binh Nhuang. Han Quoc cung bat dau chia se quan diim voi Trung Quoc trong cac cupc dam phan sau ben va cong khai bao ve de xu4t ciia miin Bac ve viec thiet lap mpt
"rao can hat nhan" nham ung pho voi nhimg mii de dpa tir phia My.
Ngay ca khi chinh sach hoa giai lien Triiu mau thuin vai chinh sach ran de ciia My, Han Quoc vio kien tri xuc tien cac
'" Doug Struck, Bradley Graham (25-04-2003), "What Do U.S. and Allies Make of North Korea's Statement?", yfashinglon Posl.
" Chosun !lbo, 18-01-2003, Quote Interview on KBS TV Immediately after Roh Moo Hyun Was Elected President.
'^ Shim Jae-Yun (November 14, 2004); "Roh Opposes Sanctions Against North Korea". Korea Times (Seoul); Choi Hoon and Min Seong-Jae (December 7, 2004). "Roh, in Paris, Is Even More Outspoken on North Korea", JoongAng Ilho (Seoul).
49
Phan Thi Anh Thu. Chinh sdch "hoa binh va thinh vugng"
boat ddng ttao ddi vd hi?p tac giOa hai miSn. NhQng thdnh cdng ddu tien cua chmh sdch Bdc Trieu Tien dudi thdi Tdng thdng Roh Moo Hyun chu yin dat dugc vao ndm 2005 - ndm thii ba thuc Men chinh sdch
"Hda bmh vd thinh vugng". Chi tinh rieng trong nam ndy, ban 88.000 ngudi d hai miSn TriSu Tien da cd cac cugc thdm vieng ldn nhau, vugt qud tdng s6 ngudi thdm viSng lien Trilu trong vdng 15 nam (1989 - 2004) Id 85.400 ngudi. Dd cd 13 cugc gap gd giiia cac gia dinh ly tan dugc Chinh phii hai nudc td chdc vdi su tham du cua
12.695 ngudi. Hem 1,5 trieu du khdch Hdn Qudc da ddt chdn den vung mii Kumgang d mien Bdc'^
D8 duy tri chinh sach gan gui vdi CHDCND TriSu Tien, chinh quyin Roh Moo Hyun dd vugt qua nhiing bit ddng trong quan h? vdi My vd diing ra gdnh vdc mgt Idiodn chi phi khdng he nhd cho viec xdy dung dac khu kinh tl Kaesong, tuyIn dudng sdt d duyen hai phia Ddng, phia Tdy cua mien Bac vd chi ra 200 trieu USD mdi ndm cho muc dich vien trg phdn bdn vd luong thuc''' Du dugc danh gid la mgt trong nhung chinh quyen hda gidi nhat vdi mien Bac, thdm chi cdn hon cd ddng minh chien lugc cua Binh Nhuang Id Trung Qudc'^ nhimg Roh Moo Hyun vdn khdng ididi lo ngai ve idid ndng nhugng bg chinh
" Ministiy of Unification, Republic of Korea, White Paper on Korean Unification (2005), Chapter 2:
Progress in Inter-Korean Dialogue, tr. 17.
" Thong Tin Xa Vijt Nam, Tii li|u Tham khao s6 12-2007, Chuyen khao "Chinh sdch ddi ngoai ciia Han Quoc", tr.l4.
" Strategic Forecasting (26-04-2005), "South Korea:
Rifts, Mixed Messages and Frustrations".
tri cua CHDCND Trilu Tien. Mdi lo nay xudt phat tii thuc t l Han Qu6c va CHDCND Trilu Tien cd nhiing khdc biet qua ldn vl thu tu uu tien trong chmh sach ddi ngoai cua minh. Dilu nay dugc the hien chi tilt d bdng ben dudi (Xem bang 1).
Cd thi thdy, uu tien hdng ddu trong chmh sach cua^dc Trilu Tien la duy tris\r tdn tai vd dn dinh cua chi do nen viec nudc ndy tilp tuc phdt triln vu khi huy hat nhan Id dilu tdt ylu. Trong khi dd, Hdn QuIc lai coi kit qua hda giai, hgp tac liSn Trieu mdi Id uu tien hdng ddu dl tiln tdi thuong lugng va tim ra giai phap hda binh vdi CHDCND Trilu Tien. Tuy nhito, trong thuc tl chinh quyin Kim Jong II lai khdng thi til bd viec sd hdu vu khi hjt nhan vi do Id lgi ich chiln lugc ndm trong ke hojch tdng tbl cua qudc gia, nd dua ra ba ca hpi cung luc: ngdn chdn tan cong qudn su, bao ve qudn ddi vd md hinh chinh tri ndi dja".
Su mdu thudn giua y dd phdt trien siic manh hat nhan cua mien Bac vdi muc tieu phi hat nhan hda ban ddo Trieu TiSn cda mien Nam khien cdc ben Ichdng tim dugc tieng ndi chimg trong viec duy tri hda binh d khu vuc. Rd rdng, quan he lien Trieu chi cd the phdt trien thuan lgi neu thd t\r uu tien cda hai mien gidng nhau. Tuy nhien, trong thuc te khd ndng nay lai rdt khd xay ra. Ban thdn Han Qudc cung xac djnh vi?c thuc hien chinh sach can du chi cd tdc dyng thay ddi hanh vi himg hdng cua miin Bdc chd khdng chdc chdn lam cho nudc nay
" Robert Dujarric (14/12/2004), The Logic of North Korea's Nuclear Program, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/a01_0155.html
50
Nghien cuu An Dp vd Chdu A. Sd 06 - 2014
thay ddi thii tir uu tien trong chinh s^ch d6i ngo^ cua minh. Do khong thS thuydt phuc
\k thay doi lap tnicmg ciing rin cua CHDCND Tri^u Tien \h vi?c phat trien vu khi hat nhan, chinh quySn Roh Moo Hyun iiSn tilp chiing kien sir leo thang cua nuac niy doi vdd hoat d^ng Iam giau uranium tir cuoi nSm 2002, tai khoi dpng 16 phan ung
\k tuyen bo nit khoi NPT d k nam 2003.
Han Qu6c da phai d4y m ^ chiln lugc hoa dju, tich c\rc duy tri an ninh tren ban dao Trieu Tien bSng cac hoat dong trao d6i, hgp tac lien Trilu. Tuy nhien, chinh sach ngo^ii giao g§n gui chi co tac dung gia tang mau dich kinh te, phat trien ha tAng xa hgi cho mien Bac chii khong th6 ngan chan nuac nay tiep can va phat trien vu khi hiiy di?t h ^ g logt. Do do, khi Binh Nhuang tiln hanh vu thii ten lua (7/2006) va thu vu khi h^t nhan (10/2006), Han Qu6c nhanh chong rai vao cuOc khiing hoang an ninh nghiem trpng nhat trong han mot thap ky qua, nhit la khi du luan trong nuac bat d4u phan doi hpp tac lien Trieu, con Bac Trieu Tien dupc du doan la muc tieu tiep theo trong cupc chiln ch6ng khiing bo cua My.
D I tranh kit cue d6 vd cho chinh sach
"Hoa binh va thinh vupng", chinh quyen Roh Moo Hyun da chii truong giai quyet van dl h^t nhan ciia B4C Trieu Tien mot cdch hda binh. Tuy nhien, dl ngan chan su lan ludt ciia miin B4C d6i voi muc tieu phat triln quan syr, Han Quoc da de ra ba nguyen tSc: (1) khong thiia nhan chuang trinh h^t nhan cua CHDCND Trilu Tien, (2) thyc hi^n giai phap hoa binh thong qua d6i tho^i, (3) phat huy vai tro tich cue cua
Han Quoc trong viec giai quylt cdc vln dl lien quan". Khong mu6n rai vao tinh thi hi dOng moi khi mien Bic gia tang dli dAu quan su, Roh Moo Hyun dl nghi thuc hien
"long ghep" ca hai muc tieu: giai quylt vln de hat nhan va phat triln quan he lien Trieu, trong do ITnh vuc hpp tac song phuang se bao gom ca Hiep udc quan sy giua Han QuIc va CHDCND Trilu Tien.
Giai phap nay dupc dua ra tren ca sd nhan dinh: "BtJc Trieu Tien khong the sa hihi vu khi hat nhdn vd ma cira kinh te ciing mpt luc. Mien Bdc nen tif bo vu khl huy diet di duy tri an ninh khu v«-c vd ddl ldy su vi^n tra ve kinh /e"'^ Tong thong Roh Moo Hyun cGng bay to mong muon hai mien se ky mpt hiep udc hoa binh nham dam bao an ninh tren ban dao Trieu Tien. De th\rc hien mong muon nay, Han Quoc vdn quyet tam theo duoi nhung tien bp trong quan h?
lien Trieu va tim kiem giai phap cho van de hat nhan. Dau nam 2007, Roh Moo Hyun dua ra y tudng to chiic Hpi nghi thupng dinh lan thii hai vdi cam ket "hoa binh, on djnh tren ban dao Trieu Tien la muc tieu hanh dpng trong chinh sach doi vdi CHDCND Trieu Tien". Phucmg cham hoa giai, tiep xuc nhe nhang va xay dung long tin cua Han Quoc da thuc day vice ky ket
"Tuyen bl ve phat trien quan h? lien Trieu, hda binh va thinh vupng" giua Tong thong Han QuIc Roh Moo Hyun va Tong Bi thu Ban Chdp hanh Trung uong Dang Lao
" Ministry of Unification, Republic of Korea, White Paper on Korean Unification (2005), Chapter I Promoting the Policy of Peace and Prosperity, tr 18.
'* Times Asia (2003), "I Wdl Do My Best lo Remove the Differences". Vol. 161, No. 8, March 3.
51
Phan Thi Anh Thu. Chinh sdch "hda birth vd thinh vugng"..
ddng Trieu Tien Kim Jong II tai Binh Nhudng vao thdng 10/2007. Ban tuyen bd 8 diem ndi tren tdi khdng dinh tinh tlidn cua Tuyen bd chung (15/6/2000) trong viec duy tri nhiing tien bd cua quan he hai midn, dam bdo hda binh vd thuc ddy s\f thinh vuong chung cho todn khu vuc". Cimg vdi viec md lgi cdc tuyen van tai dudng sdt, xdy dung khu cdng nghiep chung, td hgp ddng tau chung vd ky ket Hiep udc hda binh thay thd Hiep udc dinh chijn td nam 1953, quan he lien Trieu dd thuc su dm ddn len. Ngay cd kiii nhiing khuc mdc v^ vdn dd hat nhdn cua CHDCND Trilu Tien chua dugc thdo gd, sd hsqng cdc cudc ddi thoai song phuong vdn khdng ngimg tdng. Tmh tir thdng 3 ddn thdng 9 ndm 2007, 113 cudc dam phan Bdc - Nam da dupc td chuc, 74 thda t h u ^ duoc ky kSt cung vdi 10 cudc dam phdn lien Trieu cdp Bd trudng dugc triju tap™. Xet vd sd cudc hop va thda thudn d£it dugc tii sau Hgi nghi thucmg dinh thi chinh quySn Roh Moo Hyun tham chi cdn thdnh cdng hon cd ngudi tiSn nhiem Kim Dae Jung.
Cd the thdy, du "Hda binh vd thjnh vugng" Id san phdm kd thua va phat Vnin tu chinh sdch "Anh Duong" nhtmg Tdng thdng Roh Moo Hyun ciing bd ra khdng it tdm huySt de kien tri ddi phd vdi vdn ii hat nhdn cua mien Bdc va vuc day mdi quan he lien Trieu. Ddc didm ca bdn trong chinh
Ministry of Unification, Republic of Korea, 2007 South-North Korean Summit, South-North Declaration Opens a New Era of Peace and Prosperity on the Korean Peninsula, Peace Agreements Digital Collection, USIP Library.
Korean Register (2007), Jnler-Korean Relations Vol. l 2 , N o . l , p . 35
sach Bdc Trieu Tien cua ong la ddi sach
"nlian nhugng kep". Giai piiap xoa diu ddng thdi ca My va CHDCND Tridu Tien chinh la budc di ddu tiSn cua Roh Moo Hyun nham Iden tao "hda binh vd thinh vugng" trong khu vuc. Han Qudc dd nd l\rc gin gio mdi quan he lien Tridu v6n dugc van ddp tu thdi Kim Dae Jung vdi cam kjt cung cap 500.000 tdn g£io vd 300.000 tdn phdn bdn mdi ndm cho mien Bdc. Chinh phu cdn tich cue theo dudi cac du an kinh tl lien Tridu vd ra siic gidm thidu nhiing khdc biet trong chinh sdch vai My bdng viec gui quan vien trg va cdng khai ung ho sieu cudng nay ddn ddu cudc chidn ch6ng Iraq. Ngay trong cudc hgi ddm ddu ti& vdi Tdng thdng George W. Bush tp Washington (5/2003), Roh Moo Hyuii. da cd gang Ioai bd sir hd nghi cua My ve v ^ de Bdc TriSu Tien vdi cam kdt: "Hgp tac vd trao ddi lien Tridu ttong tucmg lai se phat trien nhd vao nhdng tidn bg vd vdn di hat nhan cua Bdc Tridu Tien"^'. Nd luc d6ng bg hda mdi quan he lien Tridu vdi cugc ddm phan vi vdn dd hat nhdn gida cdc ben lien quan da cho thdy tinh chdt Imh boat vd ngdy cdng chu dgng cua chinh sdch ddi ngoai Han Qudc. Tuy nhien, vdn la ngudi sung bai chu nghia da phuong theo khuynh hudng tu do, Tdng thdng Roh Moo Hyun Iai khdng mong mudn Hdn Qudc bj "cOt chat" vdo chinh sach an ninh cua My hojc tiep tuc chiu tac dgng tu vdn dd hat nhdn do
The White House (May 14, 2003), Aulhentiiateii U.S Government Information, Joint Statement Between the United Stales of America and the Republic of Korea: Common Values, Principles and Strategy, p. 490.
52
Nghien cUu An Do vd Chau A. Sd 06 - 2014 mdt trdi ciia gidi phap "nhdn nhugng". Ong
da chu dOng dd ra "thuydt nudc trung gian"
vdi mong mudn tim kidm mdt vai trd mdi d$c ldp han vd chu ddng hon cho Hdn Qu6c tai khu v^tp "Thuydt nudc trung gian" chiing td sir trudng thdnh vugt bac vd y thuc chinh ixi cda Han Qudc bdi nudc ndy mudn tan dyng triet dd sue manh cua My h-ong viec ihifc Men lgi ich cua minh md khdng phdi gdnh chiu them bit cu thiet h^i ndo neu dien ra xung dot giua My vdi cdc nudc trong khu vuc.
3. Danh gia chinh sach ciia Roh Moo Hyun doi vdd tien trinh hda giai lien Trilu
Du dugc coi Id su "ndi gdt" (;ua "Anh Duang" nhung tren thuc ti, chinh sdch
"Hda binh va thinh vugng" vdn dat dugc khdng it thanh t\m ca ban trong vi?c thidt l$p mgt ca che hda binh gida hai miin ban dao:
Trudc hit, chinh sdch "Hda binh vd thjnh vugng" da thuc ddy su ra ddi cua cdc nghj quydt hda binh vi vdn ii hat nhan cua CHDCND Tridu Tidn. Ndm 2002, Bdc Trieu Tien mgt lan nua day len lan sdng h^t nhan, de dga true tiep den tinh hinh an ninh d Han Qudc va dat ra thach thuc ddi v(H nen hda binh cua khu vuc. Nhd nd luc cua Hdn Qudc vd cac qudc gia lien quan, cugc dam phdn ba ben giua My, Trung Qu6c va CHDCND Tridu Tien dd dugc trifu t|ip vdo thdng 4-2003, md duong cho
qud frhih ddm phan da phucmg nhdm gidi quydt vdn dd sd hOu hat nhdn cua txiiia Bdc. Tren ca sd cugc hgp ndy, vdng ddi thoai ddu tien cua cudc ddm phan sdu ben (My, Trung Qudc, Nhdt Bdn, Nga va hai mien Trilu Tien) da dugc td chuc bdn thdng sau dd tai Bdc Kinh. Thdng qua ba vdng ddm phan sdu ben, cdc nudc da ddng y gidi quydt vdn dd hat nhan cua Bdc Trilu Tien dua hen ba nguyen tdc: (I) phi hat nhdn hda bdn ddo Trilu Tien, (2) duy tri gidi phdp hda binh thdng qua ddi thoai, (3) keu ggi su ddng thuan giua cdc ben lien quan^ Trong qua trinh dam phdn, Tdng thdng Roh Moo Hyun lien tuc dl xudt nhieu kl hoach chi tilt ldm ca sd cho cdc cugc thdo ludn gida cdc nudc. Tren tinh thdn hda gidi cua chinh sdch "Hda binh vd thinh vugng", Han Qudc dd nd luc thuylt phuc Bdc Trieu Tien giai quylt van dl hat nhdn thdng qua ddi thoai lien tuc trong bdy vdng dam phdn lien Trieu. Kien quylt khdng dimg budc khi van dl hat nhdn cdn chua cd ket qud rd rang, tir thang 5 den thang 7/2003, Tdng thdng Roh Moo Hyun da den My, Nhat Bdn va Trung Qudc dl td chuc hang loat cugc hgp thugng dinh vd phat di thdng diep hda binh ve van de an ninh - chinh trj tren ban dao Trieu Tien.
Nam 2004, thdng qua cac hgi nghj thugng dinh song phuang vd dam phan sau ben trong cudc hgp APEC tai Santiago, Chile va hgi nghj thugng dinh ASEAN+3, cdc ben dd di den mgt su ddng thudn qudc te ve van de hat nhdn cua Bac Trieu Tien. Su
Chung In Moon (2005), Confidence-building and peacemaking in Asia, The Paper Presented at The East Asia Research Forum, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea.
Ministry of Unification, Republic of Korea, White Paper on Korean Unification 2005, Promoting ihe Policy of Peace and Prosperity. tr.20.
53
Phan Thj Anh Thu. Chinh sdch "hoa binh vd thjnh vuang"..
dong thuan nay bao gdm bdn ndi dung: (1) khdng khoan nhugng vdi chuong trinh phdt trien vu khi hat nhdn cua Bac Trieu Tien, (2) tim Idem gidi phdp hda binh ve vdn de hat nhan, 3) yeu cdu thdi do hi?p tdc va hdnh dgng cd trdch nhiem cua Bac Trieu Tien ddi vdi an ninh khu v\rc, (4) nhanh chdng ndi lai cdc cudc ddm phdn sdu ben^". Thdng qua nhiing cudc hgp ndi tren, Roh Moo Hyun da cam ket coi viec giai quylt van dl hat nhan Id tru tidn hdng ddu trong chinh sdch ddi ngoai ciia minh vd tdi khang djnh vdn de nay se dugc gidi quyet hda binh trong khudn khd cdc cudc hgp sau ben. Chinh phu Han Qudc da phdi trai qua mgt chang dudng kha ddi trong qua trinh tim kilm su tiln bd ttr cdc cugc dam phdn sdu ben dl cung vdi My, Nhdt Bdn vd Trung Qudc dua ra nhdng nghj quylt cd tinh chdt cuang linh trong viec gidi quylt vdn de hat nhdn cua miin Bdc.
Thii' hai, chinh sach "Hda binh vd thjnh vuijmg" budc ddu da xdy dung thdnh cdng mgt ca chi hda binh tren ban ddo Trilu Tien. Ngay tu khi bdt ddu nhiem ky Tdng thdng, Roh Moo Hyun da khdng djnh chinh quyen cua dng se thuc ddy viec thilt lap hda binh tren bdn dao Trilu Tien thdng qua chinh sdch "Hda binh vd thinh vugng". Vdi quylt tdm do, ngay trong Iinh vvc an ninh - qudn su, hai ben ciing dat dugc nhQng tien bg hit sue quan trgng.
Tai cdc cugc dam phan cdp Bd frudng lien Trilu ldn thu 13 vdo ngdy 6/2/2004, Han
Qudc vd CHDCND Trilu Tien da nhat hi ciing phdt triln quan he lien Trieu Tien tren co so tao dvmg long tin va gidm ddi ddu qudn su. Hai ben nhdt tri td chdc hai vdng hgi dam qudn su lien Trieu vao thdng 6/2004 nhdm thdng qua Hiep dinh vl phdng chdng tai nan dyng do trdn bien vd cham dlit tuyen truyen chdng ddi t^i khu vuc phi quan su. Day la ldn ddu tien kl tir khi chia cdt, hai miin Trilu Tidn djt dugc su nhdt tri vl cdc bien phdp hoa binh dl kiem soat ddi ddu vu trang.'
77J«- ba, chinh sdch "Hda binh vd thinh vugng" tiep tuc ciing cd boat ddng hgp tac lien Trilu tir thdi Kim Dae Jung vd thiic day qua trinh cdi each, md ciia 6 miin Bdc. K I tit khi nham chdc, Tdng thdng Roh Moo Hyun da khd thanh cdng trong viec gia tang ddi thoai va giao luu, tilp xuc giiia hai mien. Nhd dd, cdc chuyin thdm vieng lien Trilu khdng ngimg gia tdng. Sd lugng khdch d ca hai mien tir 13.877 ngudi (2002) da len din 16.303 ngudi (2003). Trong ndm 2004, sd ngudi Trieu Tien di qua dudng ranh gidi quan s\r dat nguang 26.534" Ngay trong thdi diem diln ra cudc khung hodng h?t nhdn, sd lugng ngudi vd hang hda trao ddi qua dudng bg, dudng bien vd duong khdng vdn khdng hi sut giam. Qua trinh hgp tac kinh te lien Trilu cung da thuc diy cdng cudc cdi each kinh t l 6 miin Bdc diin ra vdo thdng 7/2002 vdi viec coi trgng vai trd kinh te tu nhan va v jn dung hi?u qud hon
Minisffy of Unification, Republic of Korea, White Paper on Korean Unification 2005, Promoling the Policy of Peace and Prosperity. ti.2i.
54
Ministry of Unification, Republic of Korea, White Paper on Korean Unification (2005), Chapter 1:
Promoting the Policy of Peace and Prosperity, tr. 22.
Nghien cuu An Bd vd Chdu A. Sd 06 - 2014
cdc yeu td ciia nen kinh t l thi frudng vdo ddi sdng. Nhiing thay ddi ndi tren cua CHDCND Trilu Tidn Id nd lye ndi rigng cua nudc ndy kit hgp vdi chinh sach nhit qudn cua Han Qudc trong tiln trinh hda gidi dan t^c.
Du dugc danh gia la mgt chinh sdch ddy tham vgng vd tdo bao vdi nhung muc tieu ldn (vita gdn ket quan he lien Trilu, viia xdy d\mg ban ddo Trilu Tien vd khu v\rc Ddng Bdc A phdn vinh) nhung "Hda binh vd thjnh vugng" van dugc cdng ludn Hdn Qudc danh gia cao vi nd da hoan Bang 1: Thii t u mi tien trong chinh
thdnh nhiing sii: menh chinh tri ca bdn: tich c\tc gidi quylt vdn dl hat nhdn cua CHDCND Trilu Tien va thuc diy tiln U-inh hda gidi ddn tgc. Nhd dudng ldi ngoai giao kien tri ddi thoai, Tdng thdng Roh Moo Hyun da hda gidi nguy co xung dot leo thang sau cudc khiing hodng hat nhdn lin thu hai (2006) vd td chdc flidnh cdng Hgi nghi thugng dinh (2007). Ddy la nhung tien de quan trgng de Han Qudc ddy lui sdng gid trong quan he lien Trieu trong hon nua the ky, budc diu kiln tao hda binh tren ban ddo Trieu Tien.
sach ddi ngoai cua hai mien Trieu Tien Thii ttr
uu tien 1 2
3 4
CHDCND Trilu Tien
Su ton tai cua che do Sue manh quan sy (Phat trien vu khi hat nhan)
Phuc h5i kinh ik Thong nhat dat nuoc
Han Quoc
Hop tac lien Trieu Giai phap hoa binh ve van de h^t
nhan ciia mien Bac Phat trien kinh te Thong nhat khu vuc Ngudn: East - West Center Working Papers, No. 1, 2005.
Tdi li^u tham khao
1. Thdng Tan Xa Viet Nam, Tai lieu Tham khao so 12-2007, Chuyen khao "Chinh sdch ddi ngoai cua Hdn Qudc".
2. Choi WK (1997), "The Sad Fate of Icarus: The Kim Young Sam's Governments Policy Toward North Korea", Korea and World Politics, 14(2).
3. Chosun llbo, 18-01-2003, Quote Interview on KBS TV Immediately after Roh Moo Hyun Was Elected President.
4. Chung In Moon (2005), "Confidence- buiiding and peacemaking in Asia ", The Paper Presented at The East Asia Research Forum, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea.
5. Doug Struck, Bradley Graham (25-04- 2003), "Whai Do U.S. and Allies Make of
Phan Thi Anh Thir. Chinh sdch "hda binh vd thinh vt^ang"...
North Korea's Statement? ", Washington Post.
6. Korean Register (2007), Inter-Korean Relations, Vol. 12, No.l, p. 35
7. Ministry of National Defense The Republic of Korea, Defense White Paper 1991- 1992.
8. Ministiy of Unification (MOU), Republic of Korea, White Paper on Korean Unification (1996), "Agreement on Reconciliation, Nonaggression, Exchanges and Cooperation between the South and the North", The Major Documents on Intra- Korean Relations.
9. Ministry of Unification, Seoul (3/2003), The Participatory Government's Policy of Peace and Prosperity.
10. Ministry of Unification, Republic of Korea, White Paper on Korean Unification 2005, Chapter 1: Promoting the Policy of Peace and Prosperity; Chapter 2: Progress in Inter-Korean Dialogue.
11. Ministry of Unification, Republic of Korea, 2007 South-North Korean Summit, South-North Declaration Opens a New Era of Peace and Prosperity on the Korean Peninsula, Peace Agreements Digital Collection, USIP Library.
12. President Roh Moo-hyun's Inaugural Address, February 25, 2003, Yonhap News Agency Seoul, received from BBC Monitoring.
13. Robert Dujarric (14-12-2004), "The Logic of North Korea's Nuclear Program", Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry,
htQ)://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/a01_0155.iit ml
14. Shim Jae-Yun (November 14, 2004):
"Roh Opposes Sanctions Against North Korea", Korea Times (Seoul); Choi Hoon and Min Seong-Jae (December 7, 2004): "Roh, in Paris, Is Even More Outspoken on North Korea, " JoongAng llbo (Seoul).
15. Strategic Forecasting (26-04-2005),
"South Korea: Rifts, Mixed Messages and Frustrations".
16. The White House (May 14, 2003), Authenticated U.S Government Information, Joint Statement Between the United States of America and the Republic of Korea: Common
Values, Principles and Strategy.
17. Times Asia (2003), " / Will Do My Best to Remove the Differences", Vol. 161, No.
8, March 3.
56
