NHUNG Sir KI€N CHINH TRj NOI BRT CHnU flU Um 2019 vn TftlCN VONG mN[ 2020
Dao Bao Ngoc*
Tom tat: Cd the nhdn dinh rdng chdu Au viia trdi qua mot ndm 2019 vai nhieu bien dong chinh tri a cdc quoc gia noi rieng vd cdp do Lien minh chdu Au ndi chung, cUng nhu tren chinh truang quae te. Chdu Au dang d trong vong xoay cua nhung thdch thuc chua timg cd, xet cd ve tinh chdt phuc tap ciing nhu muc do nghiem trong trudc nhirng bien dong chinh tn ldm rung chuyen chdu Au. Nhung mdu thudn vdn dm i chdy trong xa hoi chdu Au nhu cuoc bdu cu Nghi vien Chdu Au, tien trinh Brexit dai ddng chua di den thong nhdt vd luoTig lai nuac Anh vdn con bdt dinh, hdu qud cua khung hodng di cu vd nhdp cu vdn cdn tiep tuc tdc dong den xa hoi chdu Au, viec xii ly cdc moi quan he chdu Au vdi My, Trung Qudc, Nga vd Tho NhT Ky.
Bdi viet phdn tich vd ldm ro nhung bien ddng ve chinh tn chdu Au ndm 2019 vd nhirng du bdo ve trim vong ddi vai chdu Au trong ndm 2020
Tir khda: chinh In, bdu cu, nghi vien, EU, Brexit, dt cu, 2019
Abstract; In 2019, Europe experienced political upheavals in European countries in particular and at the Union level as well as at global politics scope. Europe is in a whirlwind of unprecedented challenges, both in terms of its complexity and the severity of its political turmoil The contradictions are still smoldering in European society such as: the European Parliament elections: the persistent Brexit process has not reached an unification and fate of the UK remains uncertain, the continuous implications of the migration crisis to European society, European relations with the US, China, Russia and Turkey The article analyzes and clarifies the changes in European politics in 2019 and the prospects for Europe for 2020
Keywords:/Jo/z//c\v, election, parliameni. EU, Brexit. migration. 2019
1. Nhu-ng su- kien chinh tri ndi b;)t Thiing 5/2019, cudc bau cu Nghj vien nam 2019 d chau Au Chau Au (EP) da dien ra tai 28 qudc gia 1.1. Bau cu-Nghi vien Chdu Au 2019 thanh vien Lien minh Chau Au (EU). Cac nirdc EU da tien hanh cudc bau cir cd y
* TS, Vien Nghien cii-u Chau Au ngliTa quyet djnli tuong lai cua chau luc nay trong bdi canh nen chinh trj khu vuc va the m„ bai ngay: lifJ2/20'9 ^ . . ^^.. ^ ^ . ^ ,^_
Phan bien xong 2:>/l2/2019 , . . ,
Chdp nhdn ddng 5/1/2020 lap va an chua nhieu ycHi td khd doan djnh.
NGHIEN CLfu CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N1(232)^C
Cudc bau cir EP da bau chpn cac \'i iri chii chdt, nhu: Chii lich U\ ban Chau Au, Chii lich Ngan hang Tmng uong Chau Au, Bp trudng phu trach chinh sach ddi ngoai ciia EU...
Cd the ndi. cudc bau cir da la thay ddi dien mao EP khi khdi Dang Nhan dan Chau Au (European People's Party - EPP) \'a Lien minh Chu nghTa Xa hdi va Dan chii (Socialists & Democrats - S&D) van la hai dang manli iiliat. trong khi do, Dang Xanh (Green Party - GP) va Dang Cue hihi (Far right parties) gianh ket qua dot pha tai mot sd nudc. Vdi sd ghe gianh dupc giam manh, hai nhdm dang dan dau la EPP va S&D lan dau tien trong hem 20 nam khdng cdn chiem dupc da sd tai EP \ a khdng con giir dugc the ddc ton'. Cudc bau cir EP niim 2019 cho thay da qua thdi hai xu hudng chinh trj - ta va him tru>en thdng - thdng ITnh nghj trudng. Phe iing hp chau Au \'an chiem da sd. nhung phe dan liiy, chii nghia dan tdc tiep tuc da tien lam cho dien mao \'a mau sac chinh trj d EP cd nhieu tliay ddi co ban.
Phong trao dan liiy trdi day manh me tai nhieu noi cung duoc coi la he qua ciia cudc bau cir EP. Tu\ trao km img hg chau
\ u \'an cdn thang the. nhung tuong quan lire lupng tren chinh trudng ehau Au da cd nhung thay ddi sau sac va day phirc tap. Su tha>" ddi ro nhat dd la su phan hda trong ndi bg EP nhiem ky 2019 - 2024 trong bdi canh
EU dang rat c^n su doan kdt hon bao gid het. Tuy cac dang img hp lien k a Eli van giir dupc \'i the trong toan bd cac nudc thanh \ien, nhung da dd mat kha nhieu phieu. Irong khi cac dang theo dudng ldi cue hiru. dan tuy va bao ve mdi trudng gianh dupc ket qua quan trpng". Khdi EEP va S&D la hai dang chinh tri dai dien eho quyen luc truyen thdng tirng duy tri trong sudt 40 nam qua d chau luc nay da khdng con giir dupc vi the ddc tdn, chi gianh dupc 329 ghe va de mat 75 ghe, trong khi hp can phai tap hpp duoc tdi thieu 376 ghe trong EP Lim dau tien ke !ii nam 1979, EEP va S&D khdng the hinh thanh mdt khdi gdm dang trung ta \h trung hiiu de dan dat chau Au, nen da budc phai lien minh vdi cac dang khac, dieu dd ddng nghTa vdi viec se cd them cac dang tham gia qua trinh hoach dinh chinh sach trong nhiem ky 2019 - 2024 va nhu vay qua trinh ra cac quyet djnh lap phap trong EP se trd nen khd khan hon .
Sau cudc bau cii EP, da cd mdt so ndi dung mang mau sac mdi cho lien minh. Ban lanh diio nidi bao gom Chii tjch Uy ban Chau Au - ba Ursula von der Leyen; Chii tjch Hdi ddng Chau Au dng Charles Michel va Chii tieh Ngan hang Trung uong
' TTXVN (2019), KSI qua l^du Sghi viC-n Ciuhi An a 28 nirdc, httpsi.'Vmfographics Mi/ket-qua-brm-nglii- vten-ch3u-au-o-28-nuoc/13067 VIKI, tiuy cap 11 12'2019
- Khai Hoan (2019), Btiu cu Ngh vien Chau Au lai Phap Dan;:; cue hmi RN ddn ddu, littps://www.rihandan com vn/thegioi/item/40329202- bau-cu-iighi-vien-chaii-au-tai-phap-dang-cuc-huu-m- tlan-daii litml, truy cap n / 1 2 / 2 0 ! 9
-' Phirgng Le (2018), Bau cic Nghi vien Chdu Au: Mot buoc liJii nua ddi voi cdc ddng ddn lin \a cue hihi.
Iittp://vvwvv tapchicongsan.org.vn/the-gioi-van-de-su- kien/-/20I8/550j2/baii-cu-!ighL-vien-chau-au--n v . Lnioc-tien-iuia-doi-voi-cac-dang-dan-tuy-va-cuc- liuu.aspx. tni)' cap nga\' I 1 /12/2019
QUit'tm/ lit ki^ti ehinh ti't... 21
Chau Au - ba Christine Lagarde da chinh thuc bat dau nhiem ky mdi tii ngay 1/12/2019"'. Doi vdi chii de bien ddi khi hau, ba Ursula von der Leyen cam ket de xuat mdt "thda thuan xanh" eho chau Au trong 100 ngay dau tien sau khi nham chuc, hudng tdi mdt chau lue khdng ed khi thai CO2 vao nam 2050, ddng thdi nhan manh cac van de xa hdi, thu nhap ciia ngudi lao ddng, chinh sach nhap cu va bien ddi khi hau se la trong tam chuong trinh nghi su ciia minli trong 5 nam tdi".
Ngoai ra, diem dang chu y trong chirong trinh ciia ban lanh dao EU mdi ehinh la de xuat gan lien tieu ehi phat trien ben virng,
"tang trudng xanh" vdi tat ca chirong trinh nghi su ciia EU. Ban lanh dao mdi ciia EU da cdng bd du kien ngan sach tri gia 1.000 ti Euro dc dau tu' cho ke hoach chuyen ddi va xay dung "EU xanh" vdi ky vong se mang lai nhirng mau sac mdi eho nen kinh te ciia lien minh nay'.
•* Bao Ha Noi M61, Dui ngu Idnh dao nidi cua EU chinh [hue nhdm chiic, http;//www.hanoimoi com.vn/tLn-tuc/The-
gioi/951852/doi-ngu4anh-dao-moL-cua-cu-chinh- ihuc-nliam-chuc, iruy cap 13/12/2019
' Bao dien Ur Dang Cong san Viet Nam, JO xu kien Ihe gi&i noi bdt ndm 2019.
http://dangcongsan vn/the-gioi/tin-tuc/10-su-kien-the- gioi-noi-bat-nam-20l9-545675-html, Iriiy cap 26/12/2019
'^ Thanh Tam (2019), "Sdc xanh" mdi a EU.
https://www nhandan.com.vn/baothoinay/baothoinay- quocte/baothoinay-quocte-
nhanvatsukien/item/42478302-%E2%80%9Csac- xanh%E2%80%9D-moi-o-eu html, iruy cap 26/12/2019.
1.2. Tien trinh Brexit dai ddng
Tinh iiinh chinh trudng Anh ke tir cupc Irirng cau dan y thang 6/2016 van trong tinh trang chia re. Cac chinh trj gia Anh lien tuc tranh cai ve vice lam the nao va khi nao thi Anh "ra di". hoac tham chi lieu cd nen "ra di" hay khdng. Cdn EU dudng nliu qua met nioi \'di nhirng tinh toan va lira chgn, ma ban dau vdn dugc cho ed the giup thao gd be tac, song cudi ciing ket qua !a van chua di tdi thdng nhat
Brexit da gay chia re sau sac noi bp chinh tiudng Anh qudc, khien Thii tudng Teresa May phai lir chuc^ Day cung la thach thiic khdng nhd ddi vdi EU, cd the gay ra Irang thai hdn loan trong quan he Anh - EU.
Ngay 30/7/2019, Thu tudng Boris Johnson limg khang djnli, bat luan the nao Anb ciing se rdi EU dimg vao ngay 31/10/2019 vdi mdt dieu kien phai hiiy bd "dicu khoan rao chan"
trong bat ky thda thuan Brexit nao. Dieu khoan nay cbo phep duy tri dudng bien gidi md vdi Ireland va day la npi dung gay tranh cai nhieu nhat \-a cung la nguyen nhan chii veu khien moi sir dieu ehinh npi dung thda thuan Brexii do cuu Thii ludng Teresa May dc xuat ba lim deu bj bac bd tai Nghj vien Anh. Trong kiii do, EU kien quyet lap trudng cho rang "dieu khoan rao chan" !a khdng the thieu de tranh mot dudng bien gidi "cirng"
tziira Conn hda Ireland thugc EU va viing
' Thiiy Duong (2019), Thu luong May lir chirc, nuac Anh vd Biexil se cli ve (?(5w'',https://baotintuc.vn/plian- iiclinlian-dinh/thu-tuong-may-tu-chuc-iiuoc-anh-va- brexit-se-di-ve-dau-20190528155544904.htm, truy cap 26/12/2019
NGHIEN CLfu CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW Nn(232U0
lanh thd Bac Ireland thupc Anh^. Thu tudng Boris .lohnson da lien tuc yeu cau to chuc mot cudc bau cir sdm de cham dirt thd be t^c chinh tri dang khien ngudi dan nga\' cang mat Idng tin va ong da nhieu lan that bai''.
Ngay 19/10/2019. Thu tudng Anli Boris .lohnson da gui mgt la ihu tdi dng Donald Tusk de yeu cau tri hoan Brexit den ngay 31/1/2020 theo Dieu 50 ciia Hiep ude Lisbon. Mdt vai gid trudc khi bire thu dupc giri, Qudc hgi Anh da thdng qua mpt sira ddi budc Thil tudng Johnson phai yeu cau hoan lai \iec Anb rdi khdi EU. Sira ddi nay dinli chl viec bd phieu tai Ha vien ve thda thuan ma dng Johnson dat duoc vdi Brussels eho den khi thdng qua du thao luat \c vice riil khdi EU'"
Ngay 28/10/2019, Chu tich Hgi dong Chau Au Donald Tusk tuyen bd rang 27 qudc gia thanh vien EU da ddng y chap nhan yeu cau cua Anh hoan thdi ban Brexii den ngay 31/1/2020 Den nga\ 20/12/2019, mdt lin hieu kha quan hiem boi xuat hien khi cac nha lap phap Anli cudi cung da phe chuan thda thuan, Ngay sau khi thdng bao cua Chii
Bao Nhan dan dien tu. Anh va EU ctai ihua ihudn mai. Ihdo ga hi Idc Irong Biexil, lnips"//nhandan com vn/tliegioi/lin-
tuc'item''41929302-anh-va-eu-dal-thoa-thuan-moi- thao-go-be-tac-trong-brc\it hrmi, truy cap 26/12/2019
BBC Neus, Thu ludng Anh muon bdu LU sdm neu EU giu han Brexii ctSn 3h0!/2020,
hUps //www bbc.coin/vietnarnese/vvorld-50151754.
truycap22/l2/2019
'" Bao Nhan dan dien tii. Thu luong Anh gui ihu He nghi EU gia han Brexit,
Inips'/'nhandan.com vn/tliegioi/item/41959502-lhu- tiiong-anh-gui-thu-de-nglii-eu-gia4ian-bre.'<it.htinl, iruy cap 22/12/2019
lich EU)i ddng Chau Au Donald Tusk dugc dua ra, Chinh phii Ireland da ban hanli mdt tu>en bd, trong dd hoan nghenh quyet djnh ciia EU Cudi cimg, vdi 358 phieu thuan va 234 phieu ehdng, Ha vien Anh da thdng qua lan thir nhat thda thuan Brexit, qua dd cho phep tien hanh phien hpp ve dai cuong du luat, dieu kien can thiet de thda thuan nay ehinh thirc dupc phe chuan". Ha vien Anh lien hanh bd phieu ve thda thuan Brexit chi 8 ngay sau khi dimg Bao thu ciia Thii tudng Boris Johnson gianh chien thang thuyet phuc trong cudc bau cir trudc thdi ban vdi khau hieu '"hoan tat Brexit"'^. Day la budc di dau tien hudng tdi hien thuc hda cam ket hoan tat Brexit bang bat cir gia nao vao ngay 31/1/2020 ma dng Johnson dua ra khi ke nhiem ba Theresa May hdi thang 7/2019.
Trude cudc bd phieu ngay 20/12/2019, Thii tudng Johnson ciing keu ggi cdng chung phai doan ket de ciing hanh ddng vi nudc Anh dang trong giai doan hdi sinh. Tuy nhien, lanh dao Dang Lao ddng Anh, dng Jeremy Corbyn phan ddi ke hoach Brexit cua dng Johnson, cho rang thda thuan nay se day nudc Anh vao mpt ''cupc chay dua xudng day" trong dam phan thuang mai vdi My.
Ong Cling chi trich thda thuan Brexit ciia dng Boris Johnson da vi pham ldi hua se khdng
" Phan An (2019), Ha vien Anh ihong qua Idn thu nhdi ihoa Ihudn B/exit. https://bnews vn/ha-vien-anh- lhong-qua4an-thu-nhat-thoa-ihuan-
brexit/143085.html, truy cap 22/12/20!9.
'" Bao Nhan dan dien tii, Tia vien Anh thong qua thoa ihudn Brexii.
https.//wwvv nhandan.com vn/nation_news/iiem/4265 3402-ha-vien-anh-ihong-qua-thoa-thuan-brexit hun!, truy cap 26/12/2019.
QlhCtnfj^ iijt Uipi ehinh ffi... 23
gay anh hudng den quyen lpi cua ngudi lao ddng Anh. Ong Corbyn ddi Thii tudng Johnson phai cam ket Brexit se khdng khien quyen lgi ngudi lao ddng Anh bj thua thiet so \ d i lao ddng ciia EU .
Ngay 31/1/2020, theo diing cam kdt, Anh se rdi khdi EU'"* Trudc khi ticn Irinli Brexit dien ra, day van la mdt bai toan khd ddi vdi nudc nay ngay ca khi 27 nude thanh vien ciia EU da thdng nhat cho Anh them thdi gian 3 thang de hoan thien ihii tuc '"ra di" Trong dd, van de dudng bien gidi Ireland la mdt mit that khd gd trong cac cudc dam phan Brexit, dac biet la van de lam the niio de ngan chan khu \'uc Bac Ireland cua Anh trd thanh "cira sau" vao thi trudng EU ma khdng ed cac bien phap kiem soat bien gidi'"\ Sau khi rdi khdi EU, Anh can bao dam cac thda thuan thuong mai mdi \ d i EU.
Theo truyen thdng dja phuang, quyet dinh gia ban dua tren hai dieu kien. trudc tien London phai bd nhiem mdt quan chirc cap cao vao Uy ban Chau Au tiep theo va sau dd chap nhan rang thda thuan riit lui duoc ky
'• The Guardian (2019). Jeremy Coibyn reveals do-isier 'proving NHS up /or -•lale'.
https ' www.theguardian.com/5Ociely/2019/nov/27/jer emy-corbyn-reveals-dossier-proving-nhs-up-foi-sale, tmy cap 26/12/2019.
" Viet Dung (2019), Qudc hoi Anh cuoi cung da phe chudn ihoa thudn Brexii .sau ba nam he Idc. hnpsV/congthuong vn/quoc4ioi-anh-ciioi-cung-da- phe-chuan-thoa-thuan-brexit-sau-ba-nam-be-lac- 130332.html, tmy cap 26/12/2019
" V6 Hoang (2018), Gang gdn, lai cdng xa.
https,//www nhandan.com vn/cuoituan/quoc-te'su- kien-va-binh4uan/item/36156402-cang-gan4ai-cang- xa.html, tmy cap 26/12/2019.
ket vao thang trudc vdi EU se kliong dugc thuong lupng lai .
Ngay 31/1/2020 dardi dau chinh thirc viec Anh khdng cdn la mdt thanli \'ien EU, nhmig se chua co nhieu xao trdn khac biet trong quan he giira Anh va chau Au. Tir ngay 1/2/2020. hai ben bat dau mdt thdi ky chuyen tiep, du kien keo dai it nhat het nam 2020.
Nhimg khac biet dang ke nhat trong giai doan nay la Anh se khdng cdn vi tri trong tat ca cac the che chinh tri thupc EU, khdng cd tieng ndi trong viec xay dimg chinh sach cua klioi. Tat ca cae rang budc hien tai ve luat phap, kinh le, thuang mai, van de cdng dan se chua thay ddi. 11 thang cdn lai cua nam la giai doan Anh ky vpng xuc tien va hoan thanh dam phan quan he thuong mai mdi vdi EU. Thii tirdng Johnson cGng cho biet dng khdng ddng y bat ky cudc dam phan nao bj gia han them nua'^ Theo Thu tudng Johnson: 'Thoa thudn Brexii se md dudng cho mdt thda thudn mdi ve mdi quan he song phuang vdi EU trong tuang lai, dua tren mpt thda thudn lu do thuong mai ddy tham vong.
Trong do, Anh cd quyen tu quyet dua tren ludt phdp khdng cdn ludn thii bdt ky quy tdc ndo lu phia EU" '
'^ Reuters (2019), UK voles lo decide ihe fale of Brexii. again, https:.'.\\uw reuters.com/articie/uk- bntam-election/uk-votes-to-decide-the-fate-of-brexit- again-idUSKBNlYGOOl, iruy cap 26/12/2019.
' ' RFI (2019), Brexii Bi Nghi vien hdm lai. chinh phu Anh vdn quyel dung hen, httpV/www.rfi.fr/vi/quoc- te/2019IO21-biexit-bi-chinh-phu-ham4ai-chinh-phu- anh-van-quyet-dung-hen, tmy cap 26/12/2019 '^^ Dinh Nam (2019), Chien thdng ddu tien ciia Thii luang Anh Brexii idp ihdnh hien ihirc, https Vuwu.vcci.com.\n/chien-thang-dau-t]en-cua-
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1.3. Khiing hoang nhap ctr chiiu Au van tiep dien
Nhihig \ a n de \ e dl cu ludn ludn hien hiru xuyen sudt Ijch sii'. nhung yeu td lam nen sir khac biet ciia di cu thdi dai loan cau hoa chinh la quy md ciia nd. Sd lupng ngudi di cu hien nay cao ban bat ky thdi diem niio trong lich sir loai ngudi'''
Ke tir khi cudc khiing hoang di cu Idn nhat bat dau dien ra sau Chien tranh the gidi thii Hai. mgt sd nudc Bac Au va Tay Au nhu Ao, Bi, Ha Lan va Thuy Dien da timg ung hd chinh sach md cira ddn ngudi ti nan ciia Thu tudng Angela Merkel Trong khi do, cac nudc Tay Au khac nhu Phap va Anh phan irng than trpng hon va md ciia it hon cho ngudi tl nan, cdn cac qudc gia Trung Au lua chpn chinh sach han che ngudi nhap eu.
Hien nay, tinh trang ddng ngudi ti nan nhap cu gay ra nhieu be hi}' ddi hdi tat ca thanh vien EU can phai nhin nhan lai van de.
Trong nam 2019, chau Au da tiep nhan sd lucmg ngudi di cu Idn nhat the gidi'*' Tbeo Bao cao ciia Lien hpp qude, nam 2019, ciiau Au tiep nhan sd luong ngudi di cu qudc te Idn nhat (82 trieu), tiep Iheo la Bac My
thu-tuong-anh-brexil-sap-thanh-hion-thuc, truy cap 26/12/2019.
" lOM (2015), ii'orld Migration Report 2015, https //publications iom,int/system/files/wmr20l5_en pdf, truy cap 22/12/2019.
'" Khanh Linh (2019), Chdu Au liep nhdn so luong ngudi dl cu- Ion nhdI. http //dangcongsan vn/lhe- gioi/nhung-van-de-toan-cau/chau-au-tiep-nhan-so- luong-nguoi-di-cu4on-nhat-535562.httnl, tmy cap 22/12/2019.
(59 trieu), BSe Phi va Tay A (49 trieu ngudi )^'
Cudc khiing hoang nhap cu da trd thanh van nan gay hk ddng gay gat trong ndi bd EU. Tuy hien cang thang da giam nhung hau qua ciia nd van tiep tuc tac ddng den tinh hinh ehinh tri, kinh te - xa hpi va gay chia re giira cac nudc thanh vien cung nhu ngi bg tirng nudc thanh vien EU. De giiip chau Au llioat khdi \ an nan di cu va nhap cu trai phep, EU da thdng qua chuong trinh phan bd han ngach tiep nhan ngudi ti nan nham hd tro nhung nude "dau sdng ngpn gid" nhir Italy va H}' Lap. Tuy nhien, chu truong nay da vap phai sir phan ddi gay gat tir mdt sd nudc thanh vien Ddng Au va Trung Au
Nga> 23/10/2019, mpt tham kjch da xay ra khi canh sat phat hien 39 ngudi chet trong xe container tai khu cdng nghiep Waterglade thupc hat Essex, phia Ddng Nam London va cac nan nhan sau dd dupc xac djnh deu la edng dan Viet Nam nhap cu trai phep vao Anh bang container xuat phat tir Bi Tham kjch la hdi chuong canh bao ve lan sdng di cu, nhap cu triii phep, dae biet la luc luong lao dpng khdng cd trinh dp cao tir cac qudc gia kem phat trien. dang phat trien dd xd ve cac nudc phat trien nhu chau Au.
Gid) chuyen gia cho rang cac qudc gia d
^' United Nations (2019). A world on ihe move - UN DESA re\'eals latest data on international migration, littp://www.un org/development/desa/undesavoice/mo ie-from-uiidesa/2019/09/^46404, truy cap 22/12/2019 --' Nhu Ngoc (2019), Keu ggi liip nltdn nguai di cu mot each cong hdng, ht1ps://nhandan,com.vn/thegio]/tin-
tuc/item/42037902-keu-goi-tiep-nhan-nguoi-di-LU- mot-cach-cong-bang html, truy cap 22/12/2019
Qthi'tHtf iin hii^ti eitiiih tvi.. 25
chau .A.U can cd su phdi hpp manh me hon trong viec ddi phd vdi nan budn ngudi, cd chinh sach de thdng nhat cac ngudn lire quan ly bien gidi^'^'
Cd mdt thue te rang, klidng phai tat ca ngudi dl dan deu hudng den cac qudc gia giau cd (tj nan vi ehien tranli, tim viec lam.
v.v.) nhung phan Idn thi dung la vay. Td chirc Di cu qudc te (lOM) ude tinh nam 2019, Australia, chau Au va Bac My la nhimg khu virc cd ti le ngudi nhap cu cao nhat the gidi, tat nhien do deu la noi c6 nhii'ng qudc gia phat trien va giau cd . Su biing nd nhap cu do dd da trd thanh mdt van de loan cau Chu de di cu va nhap cu thudng xuyen xuat hien trong cac ehuong trinh nghi su ciia da sd cac qudc gia tren the gidi do sue anh hudng vd ciing Idn va da dang ciia nd.
Anh hudng dau tien cua di cu dd va nhap cu chinh la van de an ninh. Qua nhung chudi sir kien khung bd xay ra nhirng nam gan da>' tren the gidi, ngudi ta mdi nhan ra viec kiem soat chat che cac ddng ngudi nhap cu cd tam quan trgng den an ninh qudc gia nhu the nao
Ben canh do, ngudi nhap cu ciing cd nhirng lac dpng rat Idn den qudc gia ve mat kinh te va xa hdi, ca tich cue lan tieu cue.
Trong dd, nhiing mat tieu cue ve kinh te thudng xuSt hien d cac nhdm nhap cu bat '•' BBC News, Vu 39 ngudi chet Truyen thong quoc Id noi gp, httpsV/www.bbc com/vietnamese/vietnam- 50232751, tmy cap 22/12/2019
^•' UN News (2019), 270 million people are migrants, who send home a .staggering $689 billion, htlpsi'/news iin.org/en/story/2019/ll/i05233i. tru\
cap 22/12/2019
hpp phap nhu trdn thue, budn lau, budn ngudi, tdi pham cd td chirc. Ngupc lai, ngudi nhap cu dii cd hpp phap hay khdng hpp phap Cling phai ddi mat vdi nguy co bj phan biet ddi xir hay nang hon la phan biet chung tpc do l-dia nang hoa nhap vdi nen van hoa va xa hdi vdi cdng ddng ban dja.
Chinh nhiing tac ddng tieu cue ve an ninh, kinh le-xa hpi dd da trd thanh muc tieu chi trich ciia cdc nhdm lgi ich ma tieu bieu la nhihig chinh tri gia dan tuy nhu Tdng thdng My Donald Trump, Thii tudng Anh Boris Johnson, dang Five Stars d Italy hoac cac dang cue him nhu Marie LePenn d Phap va dang AfD d Dire, nhung ca nhan va tap the dang diing chinh sach chdng nhap cu nhu vii khi chinh tri de dat duoc quyen luc. Su trdi day cua cac phong trao chinh tri nay ciing phan anil kha ro net cai nhin ciia du luan trong nirdc tnrdc van de nhap cu Tir do, viec sict chat hoac ban che chinh sach nhap cu la dieu khdng the tranh khdi.
Cac chinh sach han che va chdng nhap cu d cac nudc phdt trien hien nay mudn hinh van trang. tir lap trung vao viec ciing ed, kiem soat gat gao bien gidi; tang eudng dieu tra giam sat, true xuat nhimg ngudi khdng cd giay td rd rang den giam giii, trimg phat ngudi nhap cu bat hpp phap. Tat ca nhung bien phap nay tuu chung lai deu danh true tiep vao ngirdi nhap cu nhung lai bd qua nhung nhan td khac tac ddng len quyet djnh cua hg.
Tai nudc Anh, van de ban che nhap cu da dupe thao luan tir nhirng nam 2010 dudi
26 NGHIEN CirU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N1(232)^020
thdi cim Thil tudng David Cameron nhung phai den sau khi ke hoach Brexit dupe trung cau dan y, ma cu the la tii' nliiem ky cua ba Theresa May mdi dupc siet chat va thuc thi mdt each cung ran""^ (^ Anh, tham chi nliung ngudi da sinh sdng d Anh lau nam, siiili ra d Anh nliung neu khong chimg minli dupc ngudn gdc va giay td hgp phap van cd kha nang cao bj true xuat bat chap ca ddi bp da sdng d dao qudc suong mil . Chinh viec siet chat nhap cu hien nay da gdp phan Iam eho con dudng nhap cu chui cang ngay cang khd khan hon va cac td chuc budn ngudi da phai xoay xd vol nhiing con dudng dai hon, each lam nguy hiem hon ma sir kien 39 ngudi chet tren xe container d Anli la mdt dien hinh
1.-4. Moi quan he giUa EU v&i Nga, My, Trung Quoc vd cdc to chuc quoc te khdc
Quan he giira cac ddng minh chau Au vdi My va nam 2019 cd nhieu kliiic mac, nhieu khac biet ve quan niem ciing nhu chinh sach d mpi khia canh. Nam 2019 la quang thdi gian duoc chung kien ro nhat su chia re sau sac trong quan he giii'a My va chau Au, tren rat nhieu khia canh. Dd klidng chi la nhiing Idi le gay gat ma lanh dao ddi ben nham vao nhau ma cdn la nhiing hanh ddng, chinh saeh nham trimg phat lln nhau. Nguyen nhan true tidp d^u tien khien cho quan he giil'a -^ Ngoc An (2019), Tir vu 39 nguai chit irong container den 'bong bong nhdp cu', https ;//plo.vn/q uoc-te/chuyen-gia/tu-vu-39-nguoi- chet-trong-container-deIl-bong-bong-nhap-cu- 868062 html, tmy cap 22/12/2019
-*• VNExpress (2019), Ddn nhdp cu Idu muon din Anh VI 'di d lai vd kiim liin'. httpsiZ/vnexpress net/y- kien/dan-nhap-cu4au-muon-den-anh-vi-de-o4ai-va- kiem-tien-4003954 html, tmy cap 22/12/2019
My va cdc nudc ddng minh chau Au biing nd mau thuan trong klidng chi nam 2019 ma cdn cac nam trudc, do la viec dng Donald Trump dae cir Tdng thdng My. Day la nguyen nhan tru'c tiep bdi sau khi len lam Tdng thdng My, dng Donald Trump da ngay lap tire cd nhiing chi trich nham vao chau Au.
Vdi My, edc nudc chau Au khong chi phai ddi phd vdi yeu cau cua Tong thong Donald Taimp la ddng gdp 2% GDP hoac nhieu ban nira cho ngan sach qudc phdng cua NATO, ma cdn phai hoa giai cudc chien tranh thuong mai ciia Washington nham vao EU. Ngoai ra, chau Au cdn phai hda giai thach thuc tir quyet dinh ciia Tdng thdng Doland Trump riit khdi Thda thuan cua Nhdm P5+1 vdi Iran va Thda thuan khi hau Paris'^ Ddng thdi, EU con phai hda giai siic ep tir My budc hp tii' bd du dn hpp tac vdi Nga xay dimg dudng dng dan klii ddt "Dong chay Phuong Bac 2" . Dac biet, cac nudc chau Au chua tim ra each hda giai hau qua rat nghiem trgng tir quyet djnh eua My cham dut Hiep ude buy ten lua tam trung va tam ngan da ky vdi Lien Xd/Nga, tir ngay 02/8/2019^^
" Hai Minh (2015), Thoa Ihudn ha! nhdn Iran vd nhom P5+1 Hanh trinh chong gai, https.//tuoitre.vn/hanh-trinh-chong-gai-777447.htm, truy cap 22/12/2019
'^ TU Viet (2019), Dong chdy^ phuang Bde 2. Nga cirng rdn. My khdng khdng nhieu nuac Chdu Au 'cdm an', httpsV/baoquocte.vn/dong-chay-phuong-bac-2- nga-cung-ran-my-khang-khang-nhieu-nuoc-chau-au- cam-on-106602.1itml, truy cap 23/12/2019
^'' Anh Ngoc (2019), Nga - My chim dirt hiep uac kiim sodt hai nhdn INF, https.//vnexpress.net/the-
"loi/nga-my-cham-dut-hiep-uoc-kiem-soat-hat-nhan- rnf-3961944.html, tmy cap 24/12/2019
QlhCtiui lit hiin ehinh tei. 27
Ve mdi quan be vdi Nga, cac nudc chau Au phai hda giai bai loan cam van ddi vdi Moscow, bdi day la con dao hai ludi khdng chi gay thiet hai ddi vdi Nga ma cdn thiet hai vdl chinh minh. Tren thuc te, cac nudc chau Au da roi vao "bay cam van Nga" do My giuong san nhu mpt mui ten nham hai dich, vira chdng pha Nga vira han ehe su phat trien ciia EU. Vdi Trung Qudc. cac nudc chau Au vira phai hpp tae, vira tranh hau qua tir "'cudc xam lupe kinh te" thdng qua du an chien luoc "Vanh dai va Con dudng" va chuong trinh "Made m China 2025"^"
Ve mdi quan he vdi Thd NhT Ky - qudc gia thanh vien NATO dang dam phan de gia nhap EU, cac nudc chau Au dang dimg trudc thach thuc khd hda giai. khi Thd NhT Ky quyet dinh mua ten liia S-400 hien dai nhat cua Nga va gia tang boat ddng khai thac dau mo - khi ddt tren them luc dja d phia Bac Cdng hda Sip (Northern Cyprus) - qudc gia thanh vien ciia EU. Thd NhT Ky ciing la qudc gia dang nhan tai trp ciia EU de ngan chan ddng ngudi di eu tir Bae Phi - Trung Ddng tdi chau Au. sSn sang eham diit hoat ddng nay, ndu bj cac nudc thanh vien NATO cam van \di ly do mua S-400 cua Nga Ben canh dd. EU cdn phai ban tam den sir sdng cdn ciia Thda thuan hat nhan Iran, trong khi My da lir bo \\ ly do rieng'
'" Due CiTcmg, Van Manh (2017), Doi net \e sdng klin -Vanh dai vd Con dudng" cua Trung Quoc.
http://iapchiqptd.vn/vi/quoc-phong-quan-su-nnoc- ngoai/doi-net-ve-sang-kien-vanh-dai-va-con-duong- cua-trung-quoc/]0813.htm!, truy cap 24/12/2019
^' Kim Thoa (2017), Chdm dirt gidc ma gia nhdp EU ciia Tho NhT Kv https //tuoitre.vn/cham-dut-giac-mo-
De hda giai cac thach thtic trong mdi quan he vdi cdc qudc gia ke tren va vdi NATO nham tiep tuc phat trien dn djnh, cdc qudc gia thanh vien EU phdi tang cudng doan ket. Trong bdi canh hien nay, chi cd sir thdng nliat mdi cd the giup EU lay lai siic manh can thiet de cung cd, phat trien va phat liuy tam anh hudng toan eau ' Trong chuong trinh nghj sir chien lupc cua EU trong giai doan 2019 - 2024, EU da lap trung vao cac ndi dung chfnh sau :
- Xay dung nen quoc phdng ciia EU dii sire tu bdo ve minh, trong dd nd lire dau tien Id xiic lien trien khai Quy Qude phdng Chau Au giai doan 2021-2027 nham hd trp phat trien cae sdn pham qude phdng tir giai doan nghien cim (hd trp 100%) tdi phat trien nguN'en man (tdi da 20%) va kiem nghiem (ldi da 80%), dam bao Quan dpi ciia EU cd the tu san xuat cac loai vu khi hien dai, giam thieu ganh nang nhap khau vii khi va dam bdo khd ndng ehu dgng chg sire manh qudc phdng, an ninh ciia toan khdi;
- EU se trien khai cd van quan su tai nhieu pliai doan ngoai giao ciia Lien minh d
gin-nhap-eu-ciia-lho-nhi-k>-1308135 htm, truy cap 24/12/2019
^" AndrewMoravcsik (2017), Chdu Au vdn Id mot sieu cudngvd se vdn Id nhu viiy Irong nhieu thdp ky nua, htlpsV/eeas europa.eu/delegations/vietnam_bs/30091/
Ch%C3%A2u%20%C3%82u%20v%El%BA%ABn
%2OI%C3%A0%20m%El%BB%99t%2Osi%C3%AA u%20c%C6%BO%El%BB%9Dng, truy cap 22/12/2019
'•' Dire Himg (2019), EC khuyen nghi 5 dinh huang chien luac ciia EU giai doan 2019-2024, https://baotmluc vn/the-gioi/ec-khuyen-iighi-5-dinh- huong-chien-luoc-cua-eu-giai-doan-20192024- 20190502184552771 htm, tmy cap 22/12/2019
N G H I E N CLfu CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW Nn(2321 0
chau A de thuc hien mdi hen ket hon niia \ e cac van de an ninh ciia chau Au va chau A theo chien iupc ket ndi Au-A, budc dau se trien khai phai doan cd van quan sir ben canh ASEAN d Jakarta. Indonesia.
- Day manh qua trinh hien dai hda nen kinh te va xay dung tiem luc cua EU dii sue canh tranh trong mpt the gidi hdi nhap va loan eau hda trong cudc Cach mang Cdng nghiep lan thii tu;
- Xay dung EU thanh nipt lien minh cdng bang, hda nhap va binh dang;
- Nd lire chdng bien ddi khi hdu, day liii suy thodi mdi trudng, nang cao hieu qud su dung tai nguyen bang each thiic ddy tang trudng xanh, kinh te sinh hpe va ben virng;
- Bao dam an ninh nang luang;
- Phat buy anh hudng ciia EU tren toan eau, tham gia nd luc xay dung mdt trat tir the gidi dua tren cac quy tac eoi Lien hpp qudc la trung tam;
- Phdt trien mdi quan he manli me vdi cdc nudc lang gieng gan gui, dua tren sir can bang ve quyen va nghTa vu, cung cd, tang cudng vj the qudc te ciia ddng Euro nliam bao ve chii quyen kinh te va tai chinh ciia EU.
2. Nhirng trien \ p n g va thach thiic nam 2020
2.1. Lien minh Chau Au vd'i doi ngu lanh dao m&i vd nhiing thdch thirc mdi
Nam 2020 bao hieu nhieu sdng gid cho EU khi da cd mdt dan lanh dao mdi sau cudc bau Cli EP nam 2019. Uy ban Chau Au mdi do ba Ursula von der Leyen lanh dao se phai
ddi mat vdi nhidu \dn dd Idn \di nhCnv-^ i"uc tieu day tham vgng nhu klii bau, ky nguyen ky thuat sd va duy tri mgt md hinh cdng nghiep tai chau Au.
Tuy nliien, vira mdi thanh lap, ddi dau da nd ra giua cac nhdm chinh dang tai Nghi vien. Viec cac nghi .sT chau .-Xu klidng chap nhan irng vien Sylvie Goulard ciia Phap dam trach \'j tri U\- \-ien Chau Au phu trach Thj trudng ndi dia bao trudc mdt thdi ky mdi trong hoat dpng cua EP vd mdi quan he ciia djnh ehe nay vdi Uy ban Chdu Au^"*. Bd ddi truyen thdng giiia nhdm ddng bao thu vd nhdm dang canh ta xa hdi dan chii, vdn hoat ddng nhip nhang de cimg tdn tai, thi nay duoc llia>' bang mpt sir canh tranh giua bdn nhdm dang, cd nguy co dan den nhiing cupc ddi ddu du ddr'^
Trong edc lan bieu quyet, cac lien minh de cd duoc da sd se bien chuyen lien tuc va khd dat dugc hon, vao luc chau Au se phdi ddi mat vdl nhieu thach thu'c khan cap nhat trong lich sir ciia khdi.
2.2. Tumig lai hdi dinh hau Brexit va nhdng hy vong
Nudc Anh trai qua mdt nam day bien ddng ehinh trj hen quan den nhimg tri hoan
'•* Aline Robert (2019), il-'hy the European Parliament rejected S}lvie Goulard,
https www euractiv.com/section/future- eu.'ne\\.s/why-the-european-parliamenI-rejecied- sylvie-goulard/,li-uy cap 24/12/2019.
~'^ RFI (2019), Dia chinh tn ndm 2020 vd ' nhung qua hni dan da riit chdt". http://www rfl li • ; chau- a,'20191015-dia-chinh-Iri-nam-2020-qt, truy cap 24'12/2019.
QUuJttui iU ktlft ehinh tfi... 29
trong viec thuc hien ke hoach dua dat nudc ra khdi EU.
Vuong qudc Anh se nhu the nao klii da rdi EU? Lieu lieng ndi ciia Vuong qude Anli se giam trpng lupng trong cac cudc dam phan khdng? Lieu Anh se phai dp dung nhihig chinh sach thue uu dai lion va nhiing quy djnh mem deo hon de thu hiit dau tu?
Brexit la mdt thir thdch dau ddn lam cho dat nudc ciing nhu hai chinli dang Idn bj chia re.
Van de tiep theo dd la nudc Anh trong mdi quan he vdi cae ddi tdc Idn. Cupc thuong thuyet day khd khan trong hd sa Brexit cang lam gia tang mdi ngd virc giua London va Brussels. Dii cd mdi quan he dac biet vdi My dang nudi dudng nhieu hy vpng, nhung nude Anh ed nguy co ddi mat vol thuc te phu phang khi cae cupc thuong lupng song phuong di vao nhQng chu de ehinh. Tat ca nhirng can hdi dupc dat ra deu xuat phat tu' su hoang mang ve tuong lai bat djnh khi nudc Anh rdi EU.
Nhiing hy vpng da md ra sau cupc long luyen cu cua nudc Anh vdi cam ket cua Thii tudng Anh Boris Jonhson ve mpt nam mdi thinh vuong va doan ket. Trudc them nam mdi 2020, thdng diep ve sir doan ket va hda giai la dieu ma nhieu nha lanh dao Anh truyen tdi tdi ngudi dan cho su khdi dau cita mdt thap nien mdi Mat khdc, trong Thdng diep Gidng sinli. Nir hoang Anh Elizabeth II nhan manh tdi gia trj ciia sir hoa hpp vd hda giai dan tpc, dac biet la sau mdt nam lien trinh Brexit luan quan da kiioet sau hon nhiing bat ddng vdn da sau sac d Vuong
qudc Anil. Theo Nii hoang Anli, con dudng klidng phai liic nao ciing sudn se va nam nay cd the cam thay kha gap ghenh, nliung nhimg dieu tdt dep dang chd ddn phia trudc^^. Thu tudng Anil Boris Johnson ciing khSng dinh gid la thdi diem nliac nlid ngudi dan Anh
"suy ngam \'e nam cii" va nlian manh "nhiing dieu tdt dep se den trong Nam mdi"^^
Sau mdt nam 2019 vdi qud nhieu bidn ddng va sdng gid, budc sang nam 2020 ngudi dan Anh ciing hoan loan cd hi vgng ve mdt mdt nam hda giai va doan ket, thjnh vupng va tang trudng nhu Thii tudng Anh cam kdt. Tuy nhien, nam 2020 ciing la mdt nam then chdt vdi nudc Anh, dupc danh gid tham ehi cdn klid khan hon viee dua nudc Anh ra khdi EU.
Nudc Anh se bat dau cac cudc dam phan thuang mai day thach thirc vdi EU. Hien co nliieu nghi ngai ve viec muc tieu tham vpng cua Thu tudng Anh hoan tat cae cudc dam phan vdi EU chi trong vdng 11 thang trong bdi cdnli mdi quan he kinh te giiia hai ben dang qua gan ket va phu thupc lan nhau.
Rd rang thach thirc van chua khep lai va cac nha lanh dao Anli dang mudn tua vao siic manh ciia "sir doan ket va hda hgp dan tdc" la ddng luc de giiip Thu tudng Johnson cheo Iai con thuyen nudc Anh \'uot qua sdng gid ciia con bao Brexit,
"''' BBC News (2019), The Queen's Christmas message 2019 In full, https://vvww.bbc.coni/news/av/uk- 50912433/the-queen-s-christmas-message-2019-in- full, truy cap 26/12/2019.
''' Gov.uk (2019), Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Christmas message: 24 December 2019.
htlps.//w\vv\.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime- minister-boiis-johnsons-christmas-message-24- december-2019, tmy cap 26/12/2019,
2 ^ NGHllN c a u CH&U AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N'H23Z|JiOZ0
2.3. Quan heAu - My
True Dai Tay Duong giira My vd chau Au cd the se khdng phai la nen tang cho the gidi trong nhiing thap ky tdi. Tii' sau Chien tranh the gidi thii Hai va nhat la sau khi ket thuc Chien tranh Lanh, day qua thuc la mdi quan he xuong sdng cho trat tu the gidi hau The chien. Nhung trat tu nay dang ngay cang cd nhieu dau hieu bi lung lay va se bj thay the bdi mdt trat tu khae.
Cd nhieu nguyen nhan dan den vice thay ddi nay, tir viec nude My da vd dang suy yeu mpt each tuong ddi tuy van la cudng qudc chi phdi the gidi va la mdt nen kinh te dau tau nliung khdng cdn giii dugc vi tri thdng tri bat kha xam pham nhu sau khi ket thuc Chien tranh Lanh. Du bao 2020, My dang tang eudng su hien dien ciia minh tai cac nudc thupc vung Baltic, tai Ba Lan va Rumania. Ngudi My ciing se phat trien cac mdi quan he kinh te gan bd hon vdi Anh va Bac Ireland cung nhu mdt sd qudc gia khac dang la ddng minh quan su ciia minh. Nhung mdi quan he nay se nam ngoai khudn khd NATO bdi vi NATO dang danh mat dan vi the eua minh gidng nhu mpt chau Au "thdng nhat".
The gidi phuong Tay ciia My va chau Au tuy cdn rat giau cd va nhieu dnh hudng nhung cung khdng cdn thdng tri dupc nliu trudc. Quan trgng nhat, dd la the gidi ngay nay da chimg kien su ndi len cua nhieu qudc gia-dan tdc d nhieu viing dia ly, tir sy trdi day manh me ciia Trung Qudc, su hdi sinh ciia Nga cho den viec xuat hien nudc dang
phat tridn nhu BRIC va mdt sd nudc irong nhdm G20.
Vi the, trat tu the gidi cu phdn anh tuong quan sue manh trong the gidi dja chinh trj vdn duoc hinh thanh sau Chien tranh the gidi thir Hai va eiing cd cho the gidi phuong Tay sau Chien tranh Lanh, dang bi thach thirc. Dd !a li do ma sy canh tranh chien lupc giiia My, qudc gia dan dau ciia trat tu cu, vdi Trung Qudc va Nga, nhiing nudc mudn tao dirng mpt trat ty mdi, trd nen gay gat nhu hien nay va se edn keo dai nhieu thap ky nua,
Vdi ndi bd the gidi phuong Tay thi khi quyen luc va su anh hudng mat dan di, cac mau thuan ndi bd se xuat hien nhieu hon. Ve trung han, quan he ddng minh My - chau Au van se dugc duy tri va cd the se dugc cai thien do ve ban chat thi hai ben van cd rat nhieu Ipi ich tuong ddng, klidng chi ve chinh trj - kinh te - an ninh ma cdn ve van hod, chung tdc, tdn giao.
Day la cac yeu Id rat quan trgng bdi dan sd the gidi ngay cang ddng, tai nguyen can kiet, khi hau bien ddi khien cudc canh tranh sinh tdn giua cac qudc gia-dan tdc, cdng ddng, chimg tdc dang ngay cang bj phan hod theo hudng cue doan. Trat tu the gidi cu la mdt trat tu it nhieu phan chia theo y thiic he cdn trat tu thd gidi mdi, cd the se rat xem trpng vdn dd van hoa, chung tdc va tdn giao.
Dd cd the ciing se la cdc yeu td cd tac ddng Idn den tuong lai cua true Dai Tay Ducmg giira My \'a chau Au
'^ Huffpost, Europe 2020 Forecast, https-//www.huffpost,com/entry/europe-2020- forecasl_b_10760300, tmy cap 26/12/2019.
