Viet Nam trong chi so thanh bai cua cac quoc gia 2005-2016
HoSiQuy'*'
Tom tat: Chi so thdnh bai ciia cdc qudc gia (FSI) duac Quy vi Hoa hinh (My) cong bo tir ndm 2005 tren tap chi Foreign Policy. Ke tir do. hang ndm Bdo cdo FSI duac don nhan nong nhiet. Ciing co nhiing y kien phe phdn. nhung da so cac hoc gid vd cdc quoc gia, ke cd cdc quoc gia bi rai vdo ihu hang tieu cue vdn thira nhqn phuffng phdp ddnh gid quoc gia thai hgi la tuang doi khach quan. Chi it do ciing Id nhieng cdn cii; de moi quoc gia lu nhin nhgn minh. Ngay cd My tir ndm 2005 den nay cung khong duac xep hgng lol tuang xung vdi vi ihe sieu cudmg so mot DT nhien, nhu mol Think-tank khac, Quy vi Hod binh lien hdnh nghien cuu xep hgng quoc gia that hgi tnrac hel nhdm phuc vu nhu cdu chien luac ciia ho. Nhung dieu do khong co nghia lit ho khong quan tdm den tinh khach quan, khoa hoc cua vdn de. Phdn irng cua du lugn chdc chdn sH la can cie de cdc nghien cicu tra nen hodn ihien ham.
Viel Nam ngay lie ndm 2005 den nay luy ndm Irong so cdc quoc gia xep logi "Canh gidc "
nhieng luon khong trong so 50 quoc gia co chi so ihdl bgi vd luon duac ddnh gid Id thdnh cong han nhieu so vdi Trung Quoc. Dieu nciy phcin dnh Viel Nam dd dgt duac nhiing ket qud tieh cycc ddng ke a nhieng ITnh virc ve cdi cdch kinh le, kiem che lgm phdt, dn dinh vT mo ve chinh trj. Viet Nam thdnh cong thu 4 Irong khoi ASEAN. Nen kinh le tuy vdn co len xuong ve ldc do ldng tnrang, nhung khong cd hdi on chinh Iri vd nhieng bien dgng kinh le-xa hoi van & miec chua ldm ihay ddi nhieu ve (hie bgc cdc chi sd ihdnh phdn.
Tur khoa: Chi so thanh bai cua cac quoc gia (FSI). Bao cao FSI, Chi bao xa hpi, Chi bao kinh te, Chi bao chinh tri. Failed States Index, Fragile States Index
I. Bao cao thirtfng nien ve su- thanh bai cua chu y dang ke den chucmg trinh nghien cac quoc gia va bo cong cu do dac FSI cmj dinh lugng thuong nien ciia Quy vi , T- ~ u- < • - • • • Hoa binh (Fund for Peace, duac thanh lap 1. Trong so nhung nghien cuu vc su . ,^^ ' -. -T-I.- i . i ^- i- . - ,, , , „ , ,, i. u • • ' ^ nam 1957. mol Think-tank doc lap thuoc Ihanh cong va that bai cua cac quoc gia, , , ^ „ ,. . , „ ' ,^i .
, . , , • , - U ' U . tap chl horeign Policy. My). K.e tu nam ngay nay cac nha khoa hoc, cac nha hoat -r^, ^ ^ , , , . , . , ,1 , . J . - I.-- • ' - ' • J- J- I. ' 2005, Quy vi Hoa bmh da thuong men dong xa hoi va cac quoc gia deu danh su , , ; „-^. ^ , , i . ^
T O . ^.Qj^g jjQ Bang xep hang cac quoc gia dugc danh gia theo Chi so ihdnh hgi ciia cck '•' GSIS., Chi, lich Hoi deng khoa hoc Vien ''"''''' 1^'" <''''"'='* States Index - FSI). Tir Thoni; tin KHXH, Vien Han lam KHXH Viel 2014, FSI doi ten baO CaO tir "Failed Nam; Email: hosiquy.thonglin@gmail,coni States Index" thanh "Fragile States
Thong tin Khoa hoc xa hoi. s6 2.3017 Index". Chung toi dich la Chi so thanh bgi
ciia cdc qudc gia vi ten ggi nay phan anh chinh xac ban tu tuong cua cac nha thiet ki - chl s6 ehung va cac chi so thanh phan dSu do theo thang diim 10. Di^m cao hon phan anh link huong co vdn de (problematic situations) nhiSu ban, tiic la do that bai Ion hon, diem thap hon la diem it CO vkn di hon, it that bai nhat, tuc ia thanh cong hon.
2. Chl s3 FSI t6ng hop 90.000 ngu6n da lieu djnh lugng theo 3 ITnh vuc xa hgi, kinh te va chirh tri cua gan 200 quoc gia va VLing lanh tho tren the gioi. Cac chuyen gia cua Quy vi Hoa binh thiet ke chi so FSI gdm 12 chi bao (Indicator) de danh gia 3 ITnh vuc theo nguon diJ lieu thu thap dugc. 12 chi bao do sir thanh bai cua cac quoc gia gom:
4 chi bdo xd hoi: 1/ Ap luc dan so (Demographic pressures); 2/ Ngucd ti nan va nguy co nhan dao (Relligees and IDPs);
3/ Cac nhom thii dich xa hgi (Group grievance, ke ca cuong tin - paranoia); 4/
Di dan tron hoan canh song trong nuoc (Human flight).
2 chi bdo kinh le: 1 / Chenh lech ve phat trien theo cac nhom dan (Uneven development); 2/ Ngheo va suy thoai kinh te (Poverty and economic decline).
6 chi hdo chinh (ri: 1/ Tinh chinh dang nha nuoc, ke ca tham nhung cua chinh quyen (Legitimacy of the state); 2/
Dich vu cong (Public services); 3/ Quyen con nguoi, bao gom ca su y6u kem cua luat phap, dgc doan trong cMp hanh luat phap, vi pham nhan quy^n (Human rights); 4/ Bg may an ninh, ki ca tinh trang sir van hanh cac co quan an ninh
"nha nuoc ben trong nha nuac" (Security apparatus); 5/ Tinh trang bo ra nuac ngoai cua gioi thucmg luu, ki ca chay mau chit xam (Factional!zed elites); 6/ Muc do can thiep tir ben ngoai (External intervention).
Tdng diem ciia 12 chi bao nay la tong s6 dilm danh gia miic do thanh bai, tiic chi so FSI cua quoc gia duac do dac.
Cac quoc gia ihdt bgi (Failed States), hay mong manh, de v& (Fragile States), theo cac nha thiet ki chi so FSI, 1^ c^c qudc gia co so diem co van de lan. dang tro thanh moi lo ngai cho chinh quoc gia do va cho cong dong quoc te. Do la cac qudc gia co nen kinh te phat trien khdng ddng dSu hoac suy thoai, chinh trj yeu kem, x3 hdi c6 nhieu van de, bat cdng.v.v... Cac qudc gia that bai cung la cac qudc gia co nha cam quyen yeu kem.
3. Phdn logi FSI: Trong bang chi s6 thanh bai FSI, can cii vao tdng sd diem, cac qudc gia dugc chia thanh 4 loai: 1/
Bdo ddng (Alert): co dilm s6 FSI tu 90 diem tra len, gdm "Bao dgng cue cao"
(Very high alert) tu 110 diem tra len; "Bao dgng cao" (High alert) tir 100 den duai 110 diem; va "Bao ddng" (Alert) tir 90 den duai 100 diem. 2/ Cdnh bdo (Warning): c6 diem so FSI tCr 60 d8n duoi 90 diem, gdm
"Canh bao cao" (High warning) tir 80 den duai 90 diem; "Canh bao tang cao"
(Elevated warning) tir 70 ddn duoi 80 diem; va "Canh bao" (Warning), hoSc co nam con ggi "Canh bao thap" (Low Warning) tir 60 den diroi 70 diem. 3/ dn dinh/ Vira phdi (Moderate/Stable): co dilm sd 30 den dudi 60 diem, gdm "RSt 6n dinh"
(Very stable) tir 30 din duoi 40 dilm; "On dinh cao" (More stable) tir 40 din duoi 50 diem; va "On dinh" (Stable) tir 50 din duoi 60 diem. Co nhung nam dugc ggi bang nhung cai ten khac, tuy cung ndi dung: "On dinh hon" (More less stable, 30 - duai 40 dilm); "On dinh" (Stable, 40 - duoi 50 diem); va "It dn dinh" (Less stable, 50 - dudi 60 diem). 4/ Bin vung (Sustainable):
duoi 30 diem, la cac nudc it van de nhat.
thanh cdng nhat; gdm "Ben vung"
(Sustainable) tir 20 duoi 30 dilm; va
Viet Ram frong chi so..
"Rat ben vimg" (Very sustainable) duoi 20 dilm.
Bao cao FSI hang nam cung quy uac, 60 qudc gia co tdng sd diem FSI cao nhat bi coi la nhom quoc gia ihdl hgi. Gan day, cac chuyen gia cdn chii y hon den 20 qudc gia cd sd diem cao nhat, tiic la 20 qudc gia CO chi so FSI tieu cue nhat, a vao tinh trang nguy hiem nhat, de canh bao cac van de cua cac chinh phii.
Chi sd FSI ian dau tien duoc cdng bd vao nam 2005. Ke tir do viec dua ra chi sd FSI va bang xep hang qudc gia that bai da thu hut duoc su quan tam ngay cang Idn ciia cdng ddng qudc te.
4. Khi Chi sd that bai cua cac qudc gia (Failed States Index - FSI) dugc cdng bd lan dau vao nam 2005, viec sii dung thuat ngir "Sir that bai cua cac qudc gia" da gay an tuong va thu hut su chu y den nguy co rat thuc te ma ngudi dan phai ddi mat neu nha nuoc ciia hg that bai trong viec giai quyet cac yeu td va cac dieu kien ma FSI da chgn de do dac. Tren thyc te, Bao cao FSI da thu hut dugfc su quan tam va nhirng ngucri sir dung cac chi sd nay deu cho dgi mdi khi Bao cao FSI phat hanh.
Do da cd nhieu thao luan ve thuat ngii hon la ve thuc chat, ten ggi Failed States Cling da duoc cac chinh trj gia 6 cac nudc xung dot khdn kheo sir dung de trdn tranh trach nhiem ciia minh trong viec giai quyet nhtrng van de ma Bao cao FSI neu ra. Muc dich chinh cua FSI trong viec tao ra cac chi sd la de cho phep ngudi ta sii dung nd nhu mdt co sd de thao luan va hanh ddng ve nhung gi dang xay ra d dat nudc cua minh. FSI cung khuyen khich trach nhiem ciia cac chinh phu, nhat la trong viec thiet lap cac uu tien va xac djnh cac ngudn luc de ddi mat vdi nhung thach thiic. Cac chuyen gia FSI da vai lan nhan manh rang, viec xuat ban bao cao hang nam khdng phai de thao luan \ e djnh nghTa
"qudc gia thit bai" ma la de giiip ngan ehan cac dieu kien dan den that bai. Muc tieu cua FSI ludn ludn la giup cai thien an ninh con ngudi d cac nudc tren the gidi. Vi vay, cac chi so FSI khdng phai trd thanh can Cli de chia re. ma la de khuyen khich cac thao luan va giai phap tang cudng an ninh con ngudi va cai thien ddi sdng.
Thuc te, mgt sd van de ndi com xoay quanh cac chi sd khong phai la de dang thao luan. Mgt sd chinh phu da that bai la khi ngudi dan ciia nudc hg bi xudng cap.
thoai hda. Cung co nhung chinh phii da cd tinh gay ra bao luc. FSI cho rang, ddi khi cac chinh phu rat manh lai la nhiing chinh phii ap biic nhat. Cac chuyen gia FSI da nhieu lan tran an ring, trong khi nhieu ngudi lo lang thuat ngQ- "Su that bai ciia cac qudc gia" la day van de, thi dieu chii yeu la FSI khdng ggi bat cii nudc nao trong sd cac nudc dugc coi la ddi tugng nghien ciiu la quoc gia that bgi (Failed States) - vi khdng nen gay them nhimg van de khdng can thiet.
Mac dau vay, den nam 2014 FSI da xem xet lai ten ggi nay va ddi ten bao cao tir "Failed States Index" thanh "Fragile States Index".
5. Bao cao FSI nam 2014 danh gia, trong mgt sd chinh phu da cd mdt sd quan chiic hanh ddng vi lgi ich rieng ciia minh, hon la phuc vu lgi ich ciia qudc gia hay dan chiing. Mgt sd chinh phu khac lai cd diem yeu rieng va thudng phai chiu nhieu ap luc. Neu tan dung dugc su hd trg tir cgng ddng qudc te, cac chi'nh phu co the cai thien dugc tinh hinh trong dieu hanh vT md, quan ly phat trien. Hg cd the lam giam tham nhung. tang cudng cung cap cac dich vu cdng va co sd ha tan^. cai thien he thdng thue va mdi trudng dau tu.
dieu tra va truy td cac vi pham nhan quyen. Hon the niia. cac chinh phii cd the tien hanh dao tao va kiem soat dan su ddi vdi hoat dgng ciia luc lugng an ninh; neu
Thong Kn Khoa hoc xa h$i. so 2.2017
luc lugng an ninh qua lam dung se bi ngan ehan... Nhungjhiu het cac chinh phu deu khdng thi tu minh lam dugc tk ca nhiing dilu nay ngay lap tiic. FSI khuyin cao ring, cac chinh phii phai chiu trach nhiem trudc ngudi dan ve tat ca cac van de vira neu, nhung xa hdi thi cin phai cd phuong tien truyin thdng cd trach nhiem va tu do, mdt xa hdi dan su manh me va hieu qua, va mdt mdi trudng xa hdi tao dieu kien giai quyet tat ca cac van de nay.
Tham vgng ciia Bao cao FSI thudng nien la gdp phan giai quyet nhirng thach thiic va cac chi sd FSI co the dugc sir dung nhu mdt cdng cu ciia mgi ngudi dan, hudng dan su lira chgn cac uu tien va do dac su thay ddi de tranh rai vao tinh trang khdng may khi mgi thii tdi te hon.
II. Tuwng quan thanh bai cua mot so quoc gia trong bang FSI qua cac nam
1. Suot tir nam 2005 den nay, diing dau cac qudc gia cd chi sd that bai tieu cue nhat lai ludn thudc ve cac nudc chau Phi. Cac qudc gia thanh cdng nhat van thudc ve chau Au, Bac My. Australia rdi den chau A, Nam My \ a Trung Ddng. Cac qudc gia FSI tieu cue deu it nhieu vudng vao cac chi sd nhu tham nhung nang, cac hanh vi pham tdi. khdng cd kha nang thu thue hoac it dugc dan ehung ung hd. Mgt sd nudc cd sd lugng dang ke ngudi dan budc phai bd que huong. nen kinh t l suy thoai. sir bat binh dang giira cac lang ldp.
tham chi cd ca su ham hai ngirdi dan mdt each cd td chuc hoac phan biet ddi xir nghiem trgng. Mdt vai nudc cd siic cp dan so. ngudi tai bo ra nudc ngoai, mdi trudng sdng bj pha hoai nang.
Trung Qudc nam 2009 bi x l p thir 57, thudc vao loai qudc gia thdt bai. tire la thudc nhdm 60 nudc cd chi sd FSI cao nhat, nhung nam 2010 da tiln 5 bac v l phia cac chi sd tich cue han. Theo cac sd lieu trong Bao cao FSI thi Trung Qudc co
chi sd FSI Idn ve tieu chi ap lire dan sd (ap lire dan sd Trung Qudc nam 2010 la 9/10).
lam nay sinh tinh trang cd nhieu ngudi di cu ra nudc ngoai, phan hoa giau ngheo qua chenh lech (chi sd phat trien khdng ddng deu la 9,2/10), va van de quyen con ngudi (chi sd quyen con ngudi Trung Qudc nam 2010 la 8,9/10).
Nam 2011, cd 20 qudc gia that bai nhat dugc ggi bang cai ten kha an tugng "Nhimg tim buu thiep giri tir dia nguc" (Postcard from Hell)' ', gdm Somalia, Chad. Sudan, Congo. Haiti. Zimbabwe. Afghanistan, Trung Phi, Iraq, Cote d'lvoire. Guinea. Pakistan, Yemen. Nigeria. Niger. Kenya. Burundi, Myanmar, Guinea Bissau, Ethiopia. Dieu nay phan anh mdt nam day bien ddng va canh bao nguy co bat dn toan cau.
2. So sanh 2 nam 2010 va 2012. trong sd cac nudc thudc loai "Canh bao cao"
(High warning, 80 - dudi 90 diem), cd 4 nudc ASEAN gdm Campuehia, Lao.
Philippines va Indonesia. Campuehia tir vj tri 40 tang len vj tri 37 ( v l phia that bai), dil diem sd van giu' ngang bang vdi nam 2010 la 88,7 diem. Lao giam dugc hon 3 diem de tien ve phia tich cue, tir 88,7 diem thanh 85,5 diem, vol sir cai thien ve cac chi sd "Can thiep tir ben ngoai". "Bd may an ninh". "Djch vu cdng" va "Tinh trang ngheo va "Suy thoai kinh te"". Philippines giam dugc 4 diem de tien ve phia tich cue, tir 87,1 dilm thanh 83.2 dilm. Thanh tich ma Philippines da it nhieu cai thien dugc la cac chi sd "Di dan", "Chenh lech phat trien" va "Can thiep tii' ben ngoai".
Indonesia giam dugc hon 3 diem de tien ve phia tich circ. tir 83,1 diem thanh 80.6 diem. Thanh tich ma Indonesia da it nhieu CO tien bd cung la cac chi sd gidng vdi
'*' Xem: Heatlier Carriro (2010). Lije in u /uileil .stale", htlp.//mafadometwork.com/abroad/lifc-in- a-failed-staie-a-response-Io-foreign-policys- posicards-trom-hell/, updated on 25/6/2016
Vi^ Ram hx>ng chi s6..
Philippines: "Di dan", "Chenh lech phat trien" va "Can thiep tir ben ngoai". Trong sd cac nudc roi vao tinh trang "Canh bao tang cao" cd Thailand, Viet Nam (thudc ASEAN) va mdt sd nudc khac nhu Trung Qudc, Nga, Cuba, Thd NhT Ky, An Do, Venezuela,v.v... Trung Qudc giam dugc hon 5 diem de tir nudc thudc loai "Canh bao cao" thanh loai "Canh bao tang cao"
(High warning - Elevated warning), tir 83,0 diem xudng cdn 78,3 diem. Thanh tich cua Trung Qudc dugc the hien qua su cai thien cac chi sd "Chenh lech phat trien" va "Dich vu cdng". Nga giam dugc 2 diem de tiln vl phia tich cue, tir 79,0 thanh 77,1 dilm.
Thanh tich cua Nga khdng ro ret d chi sd nao, mdi cbi sd deu cd cai thien chiit it.
So sanh FSI trong 2 nam 2010 va 2012, Viet Nam giam dugc hon 2 dilm dl tien ve phia tich cue, tir 76,6 diem thanh 74,0 diem. Theo FSI. cac chi sd ma Viet Nam da cai thien dugc la giam "Ap lire gia tang dan sd", giam "Ti nan va nguy co nhan dao", giam "Chenh lech phat triln", giam "Ngheo va suy thoai kinh te'. Mac dau vay, mdt vai chi sd FSI ciia Viet Nam van bi danh gia la tieu cue hon nhu sir gia lang cua "Nhdm thii djch xa hdi", tinh trang tham nhiJng.
3. Nam 2015, trong bang xlp hang FSI cd 38 nudc thudc loai "Bao ddng", 87 nudc thudc loai "Canh bao". 38 nudc thudc loai "On djnh" va 15 nudc thudc loai "Ben vung". Trong sd 38 nudc thudc Ioai "Bao ddng" cd 4 nudc thudc loai
"Bao dgng cue cao" (Very high alert):
Nam Sudan, Somalia. Trung Phi va Sudan. Trong 15 nudc thudc loai "Bin viing" cd mdt nudc thudc loai "Rit bin vung" (Very substainable) tiic qudc gia thanh cdng nhat nam 2015 la Phin Lan.
vdi tdng sd diem FSI la 17,8.
Singapore tdng FSI 34.4 diem, xep thli 159, la qudc gia dn dinh nhat chau A.
hon ca Nhat Ban va Han Qudc va cao hon
My I bac. Brunei tdng 63.0 diem, xep thir 121. Malaysia tdng 65.9 diem, xep thir 115.
Viet Nam tdng 72,4 diem, xep thii 97, xep trudc Indonesia (tdng 75,0 diem, xep thir 88), Trung Qudc (tdng 76,4 diem, xep thir 83). Thailand tdng 79,1 dilm, xlp thir 71.
Lao tdng 84,5 diem, xep thii 55.
Philippines tdng 86,3 diem, xep thii 48.
Campuehia tdng 87,9 diem, xep thii 41.
Myanmar tdng 94,7 diem, xep thii 27. tiic la nudc kem dn dinh nhat trong cac nudc ASEAN. Cac nudc Lao, Philippines, Campuehia va Myanmar nSm 2015 thudc loai qudcgia that bai.
Trong Bao cao FSI 2015 dang chii y la Nga c6 sd diem FSI la 80,0, xep thii 65, dung can ke vdi loai qudc gia that bai;
Cuba la nuoc cd chi sd FSI cai thien nhanh nhat trong mgt khoang thdi gian ngan, nam 2015 da diing d vi tri 112 cd sd diem FSI la 67,4 (cai thien ve phia tich cue 3,4 diem so vdi nam 2014, 10,4 diem so vdi nam 2010), dugc xep vao loai
"Canh giac thap" (Warning low), diing trudc Viet Nam 15 bac, dung trudc Nga 47 bac. Thuc ra sir chenh lech qua ldn nay cung lai la dau hieu Iam hoai nghi do tin cay cua cac nghien ciiu ve FSI cua Quy vi Hda binh. Tuy nhien trong khudn khd ciia cac khao sat djnh lugng dugc the gidi quan tam nay, day la nhung con sd cd y nghTa tham khao.
4. Nam 2016, trong sd 38 nudc thudc loai "Bao ddng" cd 8 nudc thudc loai "Bao ddng cue cao" (Very high alert): Somalia, Nam Sudan, Central African Republic, Sudan, Yemen, Syria, Chad va Congo (D.R.). Somalia cao nhat (114,5 dilm, xep thli 1), rdi den Nam Sudan (113,8), Trung Phi (112,1), Sudan (11 [,5). Qudc gia thanh cdng nhat nam 2016 vin la Phin Lan, vdi tdng sd diem FSI la 18,8, roi din Na Uy (21,2), New Zealand (21,3). Dan Mach (21,5). Cung nhu nam 2015, trong 15 quoc gia "Ben vtmg" nam 2016 co Australia.
Canada va 13 qudc gia chau Au.
ThOng tin Khoa hoc xa hoi. sd 2.2017
Singapore nam 2016 cd tdng FSI la 32,9 diem, xep thii 161. la qudc gia cd chi sd FSI tich cue d chau A. cao Hon My 2 bac. cao hon ca Nhat Ban (tdng 35,1 diem, xep thli 157) va Han Qudc (tdng 36.1 diem, xep thir 156). Brunei tdng 62,0 diem, xep thli 123. Malaysia tdng 66.1 diem, xep thli 115. Viet Nam tdng 70.7 diem, xep thii 106. tang 9 bac so vdi nam 2015. Indonesia tdng 74,9 diem, xep thir 86. Thailand tdng 78,8 diem, xep thii 74. Lao tdng 84,4 diem, xep thli 55. Philippines tdng 84.7 diem, xep thir 54, tang 6 bac ve phia tich cue.
Campuehia tdng 87.4 diem, xlp thii 46.
Myarmiar tdng 96.3 diem, xep thii 26. van la nudc kem dn dinh nhat trong cac nudc ASEAN dil cd tang 1 bac ve phia tich cue so vdi nam 2015. Nhu vay, nam 2016 Lao, Philippines, Campuehia va Myanmar vin thudc loai qudc gia thit bai.
Mac dil tang 9 bac ve phia tich cue so vdi nam 2015, nhung nam 2016 Viet Nam vin la qudc gia thudc loai "Canh bao cao"
(Elevated warning), xep trudc Indonesia (tdng 74,9 dilm, xep thii 86; ddng hang vdi Trung Qudc: tdng 74,9 dilm, xlp thli 86).
Trong Bao cao FSI 2016, Nga co sd diem FSI la 81,0, x l p thii 65. ciing vi tri nhu nam 2015, nhung tieu cue hon 2 bac, da thut sau hon vao hang "Canh bao cao"
(High warning). Nam 2016. FSI chia lai loai "Canh bao" (60 din dudi 90 dilm) thanh cac miic: "Canh bao" (Warning) - 60 den dudi 70 diem; "Canh bao tang len, Canh bao cao" (Elevated warning) - 70 din dudi 80 diem: va "Canh bao cao. rit cao"
(High warning) - 80 din dudi 90 dilm.
Nhu vay, Nga da tut xudng phia tidu cue 2 bac so vdi nam 2015 do sir thay ddi thii bac ciia Lesotho va Colombia.
III. Phan tich vj tri cua Viet Nam trong bang FSI qua cac nam
1. Nam 2006, Viet Nam x l p thir 70 vdi tdng sd dilm FSI la 78,6. Trong dd. Ap
lire gia tang d^n sd 7,0 diem; Ngudi ti nan va nguy co nhan dao 6,5 diem; Cac nhdm thil dich xa hdi 5,3 diem; Tinh trang di dan 7,0 diem; Chenh lech phat triln vimg miln va cac nhdm xa hgi 6.2 diem; Tinh trang ngheo va suy thoai kinh te 5.6 dilm; Miic do tham nhung va tinh chinh dang ciia nha nudc 7.0 diem; Tinh trang djch vu cdng 6.6 diem; Tinh trang quyen con ngudi 7.0 diem; Bd may an ninh 7,5 diem; Tinh trang bd ra nudc ngoai ciia gidi thugng luu 7,0 diem va Tinh trang can thiep tir ben ngoai 5.9 diem.
Theo cac chuyen gia FSI. nam 2006 cac chi sd ma Viet Nam cdn d mirc cao la:
Ap luc gia tang dan sd 7,0 diem; Tinh trang di dan 7,0 diem; Miic do tham nhung va tinh chinh dang cua nha nudc 7,0 diem; Tinh trang quyen con ngudi 7,0 diem; Bd may an ninh va ca che van hanh trong cac ca quan cdng quyln 7,5 dilm;
Tinh trang bd ra nirdc ngoai ciia gidi thugng luu 7.0 diem.
2. Nam 2007. Viet Nam x l p thir 78 vdi tdng sd dilm FSI la 77,8. Trong dd:
Ap luc gia tang dan sd 6,5 diem; Ngudi ti nan va nguy co nhan dao 5,9 dilm; Cac nhdm thii dich xa hdi 5,3 dilm; Tinh trang di dan 7,0 diem; Chenh lech phat triln VLing mien va cac nhdm xa hdi 6,2 dilm;
Tinh trang ngheo va suy thoai kinh t l 6.2 diem; Miic do tham nhung va tinh chinh dang ciia nha nude 7,0 dilm; Tinh trang djch vu cdng 6.5 dilm; Tinh trang quyln con ngudi 6.9 diem; Bd may an ninh va ca che van hanh trong cac co quan cdng quyen 7.4 diem; Tinh trang bd ra nudc ngoai ciia gidi thugng lim 7,0 dilm; va Tinh trang can thiep tir ben ngoai 5.9 dilm.
Theo cac chuyen gia FSI. so vdi nam 2006. cac chi sd cua Viet Nam nam 2007 da cd tien bd. Bdn chi sd vin cdn d miic cao la: Ap luc gia tang dan sd 7.0 dilm;
Mirc do tham nhung 7,0 dilm; Bd may an
Vi^t Ram hvng chi so..
ninh 7,4 diem; Tinh trang bd ra nudc ngoai ciia gidi thugng luu 7,0 diem. Hai chi sd ra khdi tinh trang bao ddng la Tinh trang quyen con ngudi va Ap lire gia tSng dan sd.
Chiing tdi cho rang, dieu nay phan anh thuc te nam 2007 Viet Nam da cd nhihig chuyen bien tich cue so vdi trudc dd.
3. Nam 2010, Viet Nam xlp thii 95 (tiic tang 1 bac ve phia tich cue hon so vdi nam 2009), nhu vay la thanh cdng hon so vdi An Do (xep thu 79), Thailand (xep thii 81), Indonesia (xep thii 61), Philippines (xep thli 51), Campuehia (xep thii 40), Lao (40), Myaimiar (xep thii 16); chi kem Malaysia (xep thii 110), Brunei (xep thii 117), Singapore (xep thii 160). Nhu vay, tinh tir khi cdng bd FSI nam 2005 den nam 2010, Viet Nam la qudc gia thanh cdng thli 4 trong 10 qudc gia thudc khdi
ASEAN. MSc diu vay, vdi tdng sd 76,6 dilm xlp thli 95 tren 177 nudc, Viet Nam vin thudc vao loai qudc gia "Canh bao"
cd nguy ca that bai. Cd hai chi tieu cao tir 7,0 diem trd len va tang vg phia tieu cue, do la chi tieu tham nhiing (thudc tinh chinh dang cua nha nudc) cd sd diem 7,3 va chi tieu ve quyen con ngudi ciing vdi sd diem 7,3.
Tuy vay, khoang each giira Viet Nam vdi Singapore, Brunei va Malaysia van kha xa: each Singapore 65 bac (thua kem Singapore ve do thanh cdng), each Brunei 22 bac, each Malaysia 15 bac, va each Thailand 14 bac. Vao thdi diem nam 2010, Viet Nam thanh cdng hon so vdi Trung Qudc 33 bac, Indonesia 34 bac, Philippines 44 bac, Lao va Campuehia 55 bac, va thanh cdng hon so vdi Myanmar 79 bac.
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10 Thong tin Khoa hoc xa hoi. sd 2.2017 Tir nam 2006 din nay, thii hang xdp
loai FSI cua Vidt Nam ludn thay ddi theo chilu hudng tich cue. Theo bang tren co thi thiy, nlu vao nam 2006, thir h ^ g cua Viet Nam la 70/177 nudc thi din nSm 20id Viet Nam da d vi tri 106/177 nudc, tiln vl phia tich cue 36 bac va cdn each xa nude thanh cdng nhat la Phan Lan 71 bac. Tuy nhien diem tuyet ddi cua chi sd FSI thi chua cai thien nhieu, mdi chi tir 78,6 dilm giam xudng cdn 70,7 dilm.
NghTa la mdi chi cai thien dugc 8 dilm vl phia tich cue, van nam trong sd qudc gia thudc loai "Canh bao". Dieu nay phan anh sir thit bai ciia nhilu qudc gia tren the gidi da lam thay ddi vj tri tucmg ddi cua Viet Nam. Viet Nam mdi chi tien ve phia tien bg dugc 8 diem, trong khi dd da vugt len tren vi tri ciia khoang gan 30 nudc. Dau sao do Cling la thanh tuu cue ky cd y nghia ddi vdi Viet Nam tren con dudng hdi nhap va phat trien, dSc biet trong bdi canh khimg hoang kinh tS the gidi nhung nam 2008-2011, tinh trang khiing bd va bat dn xay ra d nhieu qudc gia, tinh hinh chinh trj bien Ddng ngay cang cang thang,v.v...
Ve cac chi sd van ddng theo hudng tich cue la giam di, Viet Nam qua 10 nam da cd chuyen bien dang ke d cac chi sd
"Ap lire gia tang dan sd", "Ngudi ti nan va nguy co nhan dao", "Tinh trang di dan", "Chenh Idch phat trien viing mien va cac nhdm xa hdi", "Dich vu cdng",
"Bd may an ninh va ca che van hanh trong cac ca quan cdng quyen". Cac chi sd nay tuy khdng tien bd vugt bac, nhung thay ddi deu, tuan tu va ludn di theo xu hudng tich cue. Sau 10 nam, "Ap lire gia tang dan sd" giam do cang thSng tir 7,0 diem xudng cdn 5,8. "Ngudi ti nan va nguy CO nhan dao" giam tir 6,5 xudng 4,4. "Di dan", tiic la tinh trang bd nudc ra di giam tir 7,0 xudng 5,9 (nam xudng
thip nhat la 2014 vdi diem chi sd di dan la 5,5 diSm). Chi sd "Chenh lech phat triln" giiia cac vung mien va giiia cac ting ldp cu dan tuy cung khdng cd dot biln nhung giam deu theo hudng tich cue tli 6,2 diem nam 2006 xudng con 5,2 nam 2016. Tinh trang "Dich vu cdng" qua 10 nam giam cang thang tir 6,6 dilm xu6ng cdn 4,9 vao nam 2016. Mac dii cac phuang tien truyen thdng trong nudc van cd nhiing phan anh tieu cue ve dich vu cdng, tuy nhien chi sd ma FSI do dugc cho thiy Viet Nam da cd sir cai thien trong khu vuc nay. Cd the noi, viec Bao eao FSI sii dung sd lieu cua Tdng cue Thdng ke Viet Nam, cua cac td chiic qudc tl tai Viet Nam nhu Ngan hang The gidi (WB), Chuang trinh Phat trien Lidn Hgp Qudc (UNDP), Lien Hgp Qudc (UN)... va cua nhieu ca quan nghien ciiu qude te khac, dau sao ciing cd y nghTa khach quan.
Mdt vai chi sd theo FSI thi Viet Nam chua cd tien bd, dac biet la chi sd "Tinh chinh dang cua bg may nha nudc". O chi sd nay, thanh phan ddng vai trd quyet dinh la cac sd lieu ve tham nhiing, iSng phi**'.
Viet Nam nam 2016 cd chi sd nay la 7,0 diem. Lien tuc tang ddu dan qua cac nam, den nam 2012 la 7,5 va nam 2016 da la 8,4. Day la con sd cao so vdi nhilu qudc gia. Cao nhat nam 2016 vdi chi sd nay la CHDCND Trieu Tien va Syria - hai nudc cd sd diem tuyet ddi thit bai la 10/10.
Nhiing nudc cd chi sd nayrit cao (>9/10) la Afghanistan, Iraq, Trung Phi, Lao,
Xem: Corruption Perceptions Index- Vietnam's result in the 2015 Corruption Perceptions Index, https://towardstraiisparency.vn/corruption-percep- tion-index-2 / / Transparency and accountability are critical to restoring irusl and turning back the tide of corruption, http://www.transparency.org/cpi2010/
results
Vi^ Ram Irong chi so...
Uzbekistan. Chi sd nay nam 2016 cua Tnmg Quoc la 8,3 diem; Campuehia 8,5;
Nga 8,2; Thailand 7,7. Singapore dugc coi la nudc it tham nhung va cd he thdng cdng quyen tdt nhit chau A nhimg chi sd nay van la 3,9 diem, tieu cue han so vdi Han Qudc (3,4), va kem hon nhieu so vdi Nhat Ban 1,4; Anh 1,7; Na Uy 0,5. Phin Lan, nudc thanh cdng nhat the gidi nam 2016 cd chi sd nay la 0,6.
C chi sd "Quyen con ngudi" va "Tinh trang bd ra nudc ngoai ciia gidi thugng luu, bao gdm ca tinh trang chay mau chat xam", 10 nam qua, Viet Nam cung khdng giam. Nam 2007, chi sd "Quyen con ngudi" cua Viet Nam la 7,0 diem; nam 2013 ia 7,5 va nam 2016 la 7,5. Dilu nay the hien each nhin cua phuang Tay ddi vdi thuc trang quyen con ngudi d Viet Nam. Nhirng cd gang cua Viet Nam trong ITnh vuc nay hau nhu khdng dugc cac chuyen gia FSI ghi nhan, mac dii tren thuc te nhieu td chuc qudc te da dua ra nhung danh gia tich cue hon ve quyen con ngudi d Viet Xam^'V
Ve chi sd "Gioi thugng luu bd ra nudc ngoai gom ca tinh trang chay mau chat xam", theo cac bao cao cua FSI, 10 nam qua chi sd nay d Viet Nam vin kha tieu cue. Miic bien ddng ciia chi sd nay qua cac nam deu xap xi d 0,7/10 diem.
Day la con sd kha cao, tuong duong vdi Trung Qudc (Tnmg Qudc nam 2016: 7,2;
nam 2012: 6,9; nam 2010: 6,9). Vdi chi so nay, cac nudc cd tinh trang bd ra nudc ngoai tieu cue han ca Viet Nam la Nga
**' Xem: Briefing on the 2015 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, hUps://www.aate.gov/r/
pa/[H^ps/2016/04/255802.htin // Vietnam National ReptJTt on the Promotion and Protection of Human Rigfus under the 2nd cycle Universal Periodic Review, http://www.mofahcm.gov. vn/en/ctc_quocte/ptkIk/n riMOS 19162124/ns 1312a4205453/view
(nam 2016: 8,1; nam 2012: 8,0; nam 2010: 7,6), Ucraina (nam 2016: 8,0; nam 2012: 8,0; nSm 2010: 8,0), Thailand (nam 2016: 9,7; nam 2012: 8,8; nam 2010: 8,0), Campuehia (nam 2016: 8,3; nam 2012:
8,0; nam 2010: 7,7), Lao (nam 2016: 8,1;
nam 2012: 8,6; nam 2010: 8,5).
Nhiing sd li?u ma FSI da cdng bd cho thay miic do thanh cdng cua Viet Nam 10 nam qua khdng den ndi bi quan, mac dii thuc trang du luan trong nudc qua bao chi va qua cac hgi nghi thudng ky ciia Chinh phu thi dudng nhu cdn kem lac quan hon.
Dac biet trong nam 2016, ngay tir dau nam ndn kinh tl Viet Nam da gap nhirng khd khan trudc day chua timg cd: Da xay ra han han khac nghiet nhat trong vdng 100 nam qua, ngap m ^ d ddng bing sdng Cim Long va sir cd mdi trudng do Formosa gay ra d mien Trung. Ndng nghiep - nganh duge coi la lgi the, cd tam quan trgng ve dan sinh, da bat dau suy giam. Mgt so van de kinh te vT md tii cac nam trudc nhu cd phan hda doanh nghiep nha nudc, giai quyet ng cdng, ng xau, chuyen ddi md hinh tang trudng, giam le thudc vao ben ngoai... vin kem ve thuc chat, tham chi mdt sd van de cdn nghiem trgng hon. Trong bdi canh thi trudng the gidi chao dao, canh tranh tang len, gia ca nhimg hang hda ma Viet Nam cd lgi the sut giam dang ke.
Can phai nhin vao thuc trang dd de thay dugc nhung cd gang chii quan ciia Viet Nam trong sudt 10 nam ke tir khi eo Bao cao FSI dau tien, sir tien bd cua Viet Nam trong viec duy tri va kiem soat cac nhan td thanh bai, theo chiing tdi la ro va chap nhan dugc. Trong bdi canh the gidi cd nhieu nudc bi tut hang thi viec Viet Nam van giu thii hang thanh cdng nhu da cdng bd trong bang xep hang toan cau la sir phan anh thuc te khach quan •
