M f f O ^
TAB C'MllMlHl
Can trong vm sue nong cua vang...
V
ang lien tuc lap ky luc mdi trong tuan cudi ciia thang 9/2010, nam ngoai du doan ciia cac chuyen gia nganh vang.Tuy nhien trong can cudng phong cua gia vang, ciing cd khdng it dieu ma cac nha diu tu (NDT) vang can can nhac.
Gia vang "bdc hda"
Theo cac nba phan tich, kha nang vang tang gia van cdn vi su hdi phuc
ciia kinh te My cdn kha cham. Gia vang trong nudc da tang lien tuc trong nhieu nam trd lai day va cd the cham ngudng 32,5-33 trieu ddng/lugng vao cudi nam. Trong 10 nam qua, gia vang da tang gap 6 lan -dd la chia se ciia kha nhieu chuyen gia ve vang kbi trao ddi ve bien ddng ciia gia vang trong thdi gian tdi.
Theo cac nha phan tich thi trudng tbi cd nhiing nguyen nhan chii yeu diy gia vang leo cao.
• ThS. PHAN MINH TAN Hgc vien Chinh tri quo'c gia Nguyen nhan thir nhat la viec cac ngan hang trung uong nhieu nude tang cudng mua vang de da dang hda kho du tru quoc gia, thay vi ban vang nhu nhieu nam trudc day.
Rieng Trung Quoc nam 2009 da tang gap ddi du trCr vang len 1.054 tan va trd thanh qude gia giii vang nhieu thii 5 the gidi, so vdi 8.134 tan cua My va 2.452 tan cua Italia.
Ngoai ra, nhieu nudc khac nhu An Do, Nga, Saudi Arabia, Philippine
So 36/Thang 10 - 2010 NGHIEN CCU KHOA HOC KIEM TOAN 4 3
gan day cung tang tich trii vang.
Mdt nguypn nhan khac dd la do ngudi dan An Do, Trang Qude va nhieu nudc chau A van cd thdi quen tich trii vang lam ciia de danh bay lam ciia bdi mdn. Trong bdi canh kbuing hoang kinh te, lam phat va thi tradng tai chinh the gidi nhieu bien ddng, ngudi dan cang cd xu budng tich trii them vang va dieu nay cung gdp phan day gia vang len cao. Mdt ly do niia la tbi trudng vang vat chat thuc ra cd gia tri vdn bda khdng ldn nen nhieu khi cung bi cac nha budn ldn thao tiing. Trong khi dd, rat it khi My bay cac dinh che tai chinh ldn can thiep de dn dinh gia vang.
Hien tai, theo du bao cua mdt sd chuyen gia nganb vang, tiem nang tang gia ciia vang van rat ldn, do su phuc bdi cua nen kinh te My cdn cham. Cac nha dau ca tren the gidi van tiep tue tim den vang lam noi tru an. Mat khac, theo thudng le, nhu cau vang se tang vao quy IV/2010.
Mai luc vang ldn se keo gia tang.
Ong Huynh Trung Khanh, Cd van Cap cao Hdi ddng Vang The gidi tai Viet Nam, cho ring, khi nao Cue Du trii Lien bang My (FED) ehua tang lai suat ca ban USD, vang se cdn tiep tuc tang gia. Dieu nay cd nghia la neu nen kinh te My chua phuc hdi trd lai, gia vang se cdn cd the leo thang va viec lap ky luc mdi trong thdi gian tu nay ddn cudi nam la hoan toan cd the xay ra. Mat khac, mdi lo ngai rang vln dd ng cdng cua cac nudc chau Au se khd giai quydt dugc trong mdt sdm mdt chilu ciing anh budng den su phuc bdi cua nin
kinh te the gidi. Nhiing dieu nay se tiep tuc day gia vang len cao, bdi vang ludn dugc xem la nai trii an an toan trong bdi canh kinh te khd khan.
Trong bdi canh cac kenh chiing khoan, bat ddng san dang am dam, lai suat tiet kiem tien ddng khdng may hap dan, vang dang trd nen hap dan ddi vdi NDT. Dang chu y la trudc su bien ddng eiia tbi trudng vang hien nay, neu tinh toan ky, NDT se kiem dugc khdng it lgi nhuan.
Doi mat vdi rui ro
Mac du gia vang hien da d muc
"cao ngat ngudng", nbung khdng mdt ai cd the dam chae la gia vang se khdng tiep tuc leo thang ban niia.
Chinh vi vay ma cac NDT dang cd tien nhan rdi, nhat la gidi dau ca dang hao hue mudn tiep tuc thu sue vdi vang. Vi the, khdng it NDT mudn kinh doanh vang vat chat, nhung do khdng dii tai chinh, da cam cd tai san vay vang ngan hang de kinh doanh vdi ky vgng kiem dugc lgi nhuan cao trudc su bien ddng manh ciia thj trudng. Sau dd, bg chd vang xudng gia de mua lai tra ng cho ngan hang. Chinh dieu nay da day lai suat huy ddng vang tang trd lai trong thdi gian gan day. Cac con sd thdng ke cho thay, nhu cau vdn bang vang cua cac NDT cd dau hieu tang trd lai sau mdt thai gian dai tram lang ke tii khi san giao dieh vang ddng cua vao cudi thang 3/2010. Dd dap ung nhu cau, cac ngan bang da nbanb chdng didu chinh tang lai suat huy ddng
vdn bing vang tii muc thap nhat 0,005%/nam trong thang 8.2010 len 1,5%/nam vao cudi thang 9. Thd nhung, hoat ddng kinh doanh vang tai khoan trong nudc khdng cdn va cac ngan hang cd chiic nang kinh doanh vang tren tai khoan nudc ngoai ciing phai cham diit boat ddn^
nay kd tir cudi thang 7.2010. Vi the, rui ro kinh doanh vang vat chat la dieu khd tranh, dac biet ddi vdi cac NDT kinh doanh bang vang vay ciia ngan bang. Bdi le, kbi vay vang ngan hang, NDT se kinh doanh theo xu budng du bao gia giam de mua lai tra ng cho ngan han^. Neu gia vang dien bien theo chieu hudng nay, NDT se kiem dugc lgi nhuan cao.
Ngugc lai, neu gia tang, NDT se phai mua vdi gia cao va do dd kha nang thua Id la rat ldn.
Hien tugng vay vang ngan hang rdi ban, chd gia xudng mua lai da cd tii lau, nhung nay lai rd len khi cac san vang da cbinb thiic ddng ciia.
Riii ro cho NDT ca nhan ddi vdi hinh thuc nay da rd, dd la khi gia vang lien tuc tang nhu hien nay thi chae chan NDT se khdng the mua vang vdi gia thap ban, tra eho ngan bang de an chenh lech, ma ngugc lai, se phai mua vang vdi gia cao hon de tat toan cac khoan vay ddi vdi ngan bang, nhu vay viec Id la tat nhien. Thuc te, tren tbi trudng hien nay cung cd nhieu ngudi vay tien ddng de mua vang, chd gia cao rdi ban, nhiing ngudi nay se kiem dugc lgi nhuan kbi gia tang lien tuc nhu bien nay.
Tbeo cac chuyen gia, day la hinh thiic dau tu binh thudng, NDT cung da doan biet dugc lgi nhuan va riii ro khi tham gia binh thuc dau tu nay.
The nbung viec dang luu tam la nhieu ngan hang bien nay cho cac doanh^ nghiep vay vang dd ban lay tien ddng kinh doanh, vi lai suit cho vay vang kha thap. Sd vang vay ldn hon nhilu so vdi vdn phap dinh ciia doanh nghiep, ndu doanh nghiep Id trong qua trinh kinh doanh, trong khi gia vang lien tuc tang manh thi viec pha san cua doanh nghiep la cd thd xay ra. Dilu nay se cd anh hudng khdng nhd den nin kinh td.
4 4 NGHIEN CUU KHOA HOC KIEM TOAN
So 36/Thang 10 - 2010
