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1388 ﺭﺎـﻬﺑ / 35 ﻩﺭﺎـﻤﺷ / 12 ﻩﺭﻭﺩ

ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ (ﺎﻨﻣ) ﺎﻘﻳﺮﻓﺁ ﻝﺎﻤﺷ ﻭ ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻣﺭﻭﺎﺧ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ

2ﻲﻠﺋﺎﻀﻓ ﺮﺒﻛﺍ ﻲﻠﻋ / ¹ﺍﺭﺁﺮﻬﻣ ﻦﺴﺤﻣ

ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﺒﻗﺍﺮﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻱ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱ ﻩﺯﻮﺣ ﻲﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺶﻟﺎﭼ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ :ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ (^GDP) ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻢﻬﺳ ﺕﺎﻗﻭﺍ ﺐﻠﻏﺍ .ﺪﻫﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﺎﻳ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺭﺩ ^GDP ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻭ ﻢﻬﺳ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻴﻧ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻢﻬﻣ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻲﺣﺍﺮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺭﻭﺎﺧ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﺗ13 ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻚﻳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ :ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ (ﻞﻧﺎﭘ) ﻲﻘﻴﻔﻠﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ (1995-2005) ﻱﺎﻫ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ (ﺎﻨﻣ) ﺎﻘﻳﺮﻓﺁ ﻝﺎﻤﺷ ﻭ ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻣ .ﺪﻫﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻚﻳ ﺯﻮﻨﻫ ﺎﻣﺍ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻴﻧ ﺎﻧﺎﻣ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺪﻨﭼﺮﻫ :ﺎﻫ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻭ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﺒﻗﺍﺮﻣ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺲﻛﻮﻟ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ ﻱﺪﻫﺍﻮﺷ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺕﺪﻣ ﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻤﻧ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻲﺘﺣ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘﻜﭼﻮﻛ ﺎﻨﻣ ﻱ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﺸﻛ ،ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﺣ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺷ ﻑﻼﺧ ﺮﺑ :ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻱﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻢﻬﺳ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ،ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻲﻤﻧ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺍﺬﻟ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻤﻧ ﻲﻘﻠﺗ ﺲﻛﻮﻟ ﻻﺎﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﮔﺪﻨﺒﺴﭼ ﺮﺑ ﺖﻟﻻﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ .ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺎﺷ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺖﻬﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻡﺎﻤﺘﻫﺍ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻧﺎﻜﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ،ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ،ﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ،ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ:ﺎﻫ ﻩژﺍﻭ ﺪﻴﻠﻛ 88/2/27 :ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ • 88/1/17 :ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺡﻼﺻﺍ • 87/9/12 :ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻝﻮﺻﻭ •

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ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﻲﺸﻫﻭﮋﭘ - ﻲﻤﻠﻋ ﻪﻣﺎﻨﻠﺼﻓ

ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻢﻬﺳ ًﺎﺒﻟﺎﻏ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ (^GDP) ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺪﻫﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻴﻧ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺘﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻪﻛ .ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﮕﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺎﺑ ،ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ﻮﻀﻋ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩﺮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺮﺜﻛﺍ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ7 ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ (^OECD) ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ .ﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﺒﻗﺍﺮﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻗﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ [1]

ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻢﻗﺭ ﻒﺼﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘﻤﻛ ،ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺮﺘﻤﻛ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻞﻠﻣ ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻟﺎﺳ ﺮﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺼﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﻛ) ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ،ﻲﮔﺪﻧﺯ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﻣﺍ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻪﺳ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺪﺤﺘﻣ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ (ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻡﻼﻋﺍ ﻭ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺵﺯﻮﻣﺁ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﺮﻣﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ5/2 ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ،2005 ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ2/7 ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ [2].ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ2/1 ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻝﺍﺆﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ 1977 ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺱﻮﻫﻮﻴﻧ ﺭﻮﺴﻓﺮﭘ ﺮﻣﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻚﻳ ﻪﻛ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻲﻠﻣﺎﻋ ﻪﭼ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻱﻭ ؟ﺪﻨﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ،ﺪﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻱﻭﺭ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﻄﻘﻣ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ^OECD ﻮﻀﻋ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ 13 ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ،ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻚﻳ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻱﻭ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻊﻗﺍﻭ ﺭﺩ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘﮔﺭﺰﺑ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻲﻨﻴﻘﻘﺤﻣ ﻱﺪﻌﺑ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ [3].ﺖﺳﺍ ﺲﻛﻮﻟ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻚﻳ (1992) ﺖﻨﺴﭘ ﻭ ﺲﻳﺮﺘﻴﻫ ،[4] (1992) ﻡﺎﺗﺮﺟ ﻞﻴﺒﻗ ﺯﺍ (1996) ﮓﻨﻴﻛ ﻭ ﻦﺴﻧﺎﻫ ،[6](1994) ﺱﻮﻴﻜﺴﻳﻭ ،[5]

ﺍﺭ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ،[8](1997) ﺮﺗﺭﺎﻛ ﻭ ﺖﺴﻳﻮﻜﻣﻮﻠﺑ ﻭ [7]

.ﺪﻧﺩﺮﻛ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲﻘﻴﻔﻠﺗ ﺎﻳ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻲﻘﻴﻔﻠﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﻳﺍﺰﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺮﺗﺮﺑ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻱﺍ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﮕﻧ ،ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻌﻄﻘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻲﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻭ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ

ﻦﻳﻮﻧ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻦﻴﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻪﺑ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺒﻗ ﻥﺎﻘﻘﺤﻣ ،ﻲﺠﻨﺳ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺯﺍ .ﺪﻧﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﻱﻭﺭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺗﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺮﺑ (1997) ﺮﺗﺭﺎﻛ ﻭ ﺖﺴﻳﻮﻜﻣﻮﻠﺑ ﻭ (1996) ﮓﻨﻴﻛ ﻭ ﻦﺴﻧﺎﻫ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﺭﺩ .ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ ^OECD ﻮﻀﻋ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺖﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ،ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻢﻫ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﻚﻳ ﻱﻭﺎﺣ ،ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻤﻧ ﺩﺭ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺕﺪﻣ ﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ،ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﻪﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺺﻴﺨﺸﺗ ﺲﻛﻮﻟ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺘﺳﺭﺩ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻣ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ًﺎﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﺎﻳﺁ ﻪﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﻢﻴﺘﺴﻫ ﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺎﻫ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻞﻜﺸﻣ ﻭ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺲﻛﻮﻟ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ

؟ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺒﻤﻛ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺎﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺐﺨﺘﻨﻣ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ 13 ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ،ﻦﻳﺮﺤﺑ ،ﺮﻳﺍﺰﺠﻟﺍ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ) ﺎﻘﻳﺮﻓﺁ ﻝﺎﻤﺷ ﻭ ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻣﺭﻭﺎﺧ ،ﻥﺎﻤﻋ ،ﺶﻛﺍﺮﻣ ،ﻥﺎﻨﺒﻟ ،ﺖﻳﻮﻛ ،ﻥﺩﺭﺍ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ،ﺮﺼﻣ ،ﻲﺗﻮﺒﻴﺟ -2005 ﻱﺎﻫ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻦﻴﺑ (ﻦﻤﻳ ،ﻲﺑﺮﻋ ﻩﺪﺤﺘﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻣﺍ ،ﻪﻳﺭﻮﺳ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺕﺪﻣ ﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ 1995 .ﺪﻫﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺭﺩ ًﺎﺗﺪﻤﻋ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ (0/8 ،0/5 ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ) ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺮﺳ .ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ،ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺎﻨﻣ ﻮﻀﻋ ﺐﺨﺘﻨﻣﺭﻮﺸﻛ 13 ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ

(3)

ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ .ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻤﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺪﻧﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻪﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺍﺭ 3/6 ﺩﻭﺪﺣ ﻲﻄﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺪﺷﺭ 1990 ﻪﻫﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻢﻗﺭ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ 2000-2004 ﻱﺎﻫ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﭼ ﺮﻫ [9].ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻎﻟﺎﺑ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ 5/6 ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ،ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻩﺪﻳﺍ .ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﻭ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﻪﭼﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻲﺸﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻚﻳ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺎﻧﺎﻣﺎﻧ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺮﺳ ﺐﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻚﻳ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﺎﻣﺍ ،ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺎﻳ .ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻭ ﺎﻧﺎﻣ ﻩﺭﺍﻮﻤﻫ ،ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻄﺧ ﺪﻨﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻚﻤﻛ ﺎﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﻚﻳ ﺮﮔﺍ .ﻢﻴﻨﻛ ﻒﺸﻛ ﺍﺭ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺍ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺢﻴﺤﺻ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﺮﮕﻳﺪﻜﻳ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺐﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻚﻳ ﻢﻳﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺎﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ،ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻭ ﺎﻧﺎﻣ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻄﺧ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﻴﻏ ﺭﺩ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻦﻴﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ .ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻝﺍﺆﺳ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ [10].ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﻛﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ ﺕﺍﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺘﻗﻭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ) ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻲﻣ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻧﺎﮔﺍﺪﺟ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻭ (ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﺎﻣﺍ .ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﻛﺮﻫ ﻝﻮﻃ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻣﺎﮕﻨﻫ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻢﻛ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻲﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺮﺑ ﻞﺜﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﻝﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻝﺎﺜﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺲﭙﻴﻠﻴﻓ ﻭ (^ADF)ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﺮﻟﻮﻓ ﻲﻜﻳﺩ ،(^DF)ﺮﻟﻮﻓ ﻲﻜﻳﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ ﻚﻳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ (^PP)ﻥﻭﺮﭘ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔ ﻲﻣ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ .ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻝﻮﺒﻗ ﺖﻤﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺵﺭﻮﺗ ﻲﻠﻴﺧ ،(n<50) ﺖﺳﺍ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺘﻗﻭ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﺸﺗ ﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﻞﻜﺸﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻊﻓﺭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ

ﻢﺠﺣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ،ﻩﺪﺷ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻭ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺎﻫ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ 1ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻱﺮﻴﮕﻤﺸﭼ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﺩﺩﺮﮔ ﻲﻣ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻝﺎﺜﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻭ ﻥﺩﺭﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ 9/8 ،ﻥﺎﻨﺒﻟ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ 11/6 ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻣﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ 2/9 ،ﺖﻳﻮﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ 2/8 ﺎﺗ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ 6/6 ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻣﺍ ﻭ ﺖﻳﻮﻛ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ .ﺪﻨﻛ ﻲﻣ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﺎﻤﻋ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ 3/5 ﺪﻧﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ^GDP ﺯﺍ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻦﻳﺮﺘﻤﻛ (ﻝﺎﺳ 78 ﻭ77 ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ) ﻲﮔﺪﻧﺯ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺯﻮﻨﻫ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺜﻛﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﮔﺪﻧﺯ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﻣﺍ .ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ

GDP ﺯﺍ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻝﺎﺳ 70 ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻚﻳﺩﺰﻧ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﮔﺪﻧﺯ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﻣﺍ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﺣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻚﻳﺩﺰﻧ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻢﻏﺭ ﻲﻠﻋ ،(ﻦﻳﺮﺤﺑ ﻭ ﻲﺑﺮﻋ ﻩﺪﺤﺘﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻣﺍ ،ﺖﻳﻮﻛ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ) ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺐﺗﺍﺮﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻢﻬﺳ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩﺮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘﻤﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ،ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻢﻬﺳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ،ﺎﻴﻧﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺐﻟﺎﻏ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻨﭼ ﺮﻫ ﻪﻛ ﻢﻬﺳ ،ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻣﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ (ﺐﻴﺟ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ) ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺎﻣﺍ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ ﻪﺑ (ﺖﻔﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﺑ) ﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ .ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻖﻴﻗﺩ ﺭﻮﻃ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﻲﻣ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ 6/6 ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻞﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻢﻬﺳ ﺭﺩ ،ﺖﺳﺍ {3/44/(3/15+3/44)} ﺎﻳ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ 52ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ2/8 ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺖﻳﻮﻛ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻢﻬﺳ ،ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻪﺑ GDP

(4)

{0/62 /(0/62+2/17)} ﺎﻳ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ22 ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﺭﺩﺎﻗ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﻻﺎﺑ ﻢﻬﺳ ﺖﺳﺍ .ﺪﻫﺩ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻲﺑﻮﺧ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ،ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﺎﻣﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻘﻳﺮﻓﺁ ﻝﺎﻤﺷ ﻭ ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻣﺭﻭﺎﺧ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺮﭘ ﻭ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ 43 ﻭ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ 40 ،ﺪﺻﺭﺩ 50 ،ﺪﺻﺭﺩ 70 ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ [11]

ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ) ﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻪﺑ ﻚﻳﺩﺰﻧ (ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻊﻗﺍﻭ ﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻻﺎﺑ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺖﻛﺭﺎﺸﻣ ﺎﺑ ،ﺎﻨﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩﺮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ

(2005) ﺎﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ :1 ﻝﻭﺪﺟ

ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ (GDPﺯﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ) ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ

(ppp) (ﺭﻻﺩ) ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ

(GDP ﺯﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ) ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ

(GDP ﺯﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ) ﻲﮔﺪﻧﺯ ﺪﻴﻣﺍ

ﺮﻳﺍﺰﺠﻟﺍ 3/6

6190 0/99

2/61 71/4

ﻦﻳﺮﺤﺑ 4/00

19400 1/33

2/68 74/4

ﻲﺗﻮﺒﻴﺟ 6/3

1950 1/94

4/35 52/9

ﺮﺼﻣ 5/6

4010 3/71

2/18 70/2

ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ 6/6

7010 3/44

3/15 70/7

ﻥﺩﺭﺍ 9/8

4370 5/05

4/74 71/6

ﺖﻳﻮﻛ 2/8

18700 0/62

2/17 77/1

ﻥﺎﻨﺒﻟ 11/6

5470 8/42

3/17 72/2

ﺶﻛﺍﺮﻣ 5/1

4100 3/35

1/74 70/0

ﻥﺎﻤﻋ 3/5

14600 1/1

2/87 74/0

ﻪﻳﺭﻮﺳ 4/7

3520 2/47

2/22 73/6

ﻩﺪﺤﺘﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻣﺍ 2/9 ﻲﺑﺮﻋ

23200 0/87

2/02 78/3

ﻦﻤﻳ 4/6

855 2/4

2/7 59/8

ﺎﻨﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ 5/1

5270 4/1

3/4 68/9

ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ

ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ 3/8

1113 3/1

2/1 45/8

ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ 5/7

4901 4/2

3/1 67/3

ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ

ﻻﺎﺑ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ 10/1

26568 2/2

6/8 78/0

(2005) ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ (^WDR) ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺵﺭﺍﺰﮔ ﻭ (^WHO) ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﺖﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ﺵﺭﺍﺰﮔ :ﻊﺒﻨﻣ

(5)

ﻪﺑ ^GDP ﺭﺩ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻢﻬﺳ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻟﺍﺪﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺼﺧﺎﺷ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻭ (3/71)ﺮﺼﻣ ،(5/05)ﻥﺩﺭﺍ ،(8/42)ﻥﺎﻨﺒﻟ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ (3/44)ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ50 ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻦﻳﺮﺘﻤﻛ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ (0/62)ﺖﻳﻮﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ،ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ^GDP ﻪﺑ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﺶﻘﻧ ًﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ (0/87)ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻣﺍ ﻭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻭﺩ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ 2 ﻭ 1 ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻭ (^ppp) ﺺﺧﺎﺷ

ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻑﻼﺘﺧﺍ .ﺪﻫﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺖﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻖﺑﺎﻄﻣ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﻪﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻴﮕﻤﺸﭼ ًﻼﻣﺎﻛ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺎﻨﻣ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺘﻔﻧﺮﻴﻏ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺐﺗﺍﺮﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻫﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ .ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺮﮕﻳﺪﻜﻳ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻜﻳﺩﺰﻧ ﺯﺮﻣ ﺯﺍ ،ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩﺮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻣﺁ ﺭﺩ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ24 ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺷﺬﮔ 2004 ﻝﺎﺳﺭﺩ ﺭﻻﺩ 26568 ،ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ،ﺮﻴﻘﻓ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻚﻳ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ

ήϳ΍ΰΠϟ΍

ϦϳήΤΑ

̶ΗϮΒϴΟ ήμϣ ϥ΍ήϳ΍

ϥΩέ΍ ΖϳϮ̯

ϥΎϨΒϟ ζ̯΍ήϣ ϪϳέϮγ ϥΎϤϋ

Ε΍έΎϣ΍

ϦϤϳ

(ﺭﻻﺩ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ) 2005 ﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ :1ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ

(ﺭﻻﺩ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ) 2005 ﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ :2 ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ

(6)

ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻭ ﺮﻴﻘﻓ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻔﻧ 24 ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻔﻧ 5 ﻭ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻔﻧ 6 ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻑﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻱﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻛﺎﺳ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻚﻳ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﺮﺗﺪﻳﺪﺷ ،ﻲﺘﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻑﺮﺻ ﺭﻻﺩ 2695 ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ،ﻻﺎﺑ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺘﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺘﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻔﻧ 10 ﺎﻳ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻢﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻔﻧ 64 ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺭﺩ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺎﻨﻣ ﻭ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ،ﺪﻳﺩﺮﮔ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻻﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩﺮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪﭼﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺎﻣﺍ ،ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﺮﮕﻳﺪﻜﻳ ﺎﺑ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻴﻘﻓ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻑﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﻭ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻑﺮﺻ ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻭ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ،ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺮﺗﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻣﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ 3/8 ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﺮﻴﻘﻓ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ 5/1 ﺎﻨﻣ ،ﺪﺻﺭﺩ 5/7 ﻪﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ 10 ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺘﺣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩﺮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻭ .ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻱﻮﻗ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻚﻳ 3ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻖﺑﺎﻄﻣ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﺎﻣﺍ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ 0/60ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻚﻳ 4ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ

ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺎﺑ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﺣ .ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﺭﺎﮔﺯﺎﺳ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﺒﻗﺍﺮﻣ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺲﻛﻮﻟ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﺐﻟﺎﻏ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻨﭼ ﺮﻫ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻢﻬﺳ ،ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ،^OECD ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧ ﺎﻧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﺑ)ﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺎﻣﺍ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﻲﻣ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻤﻧ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ (ﺖﻔﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺰﻴﻧ 5ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﺜﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ .ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻲﺼﺧﺎﺷ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ )ﻲﮔﺪﻧﺯ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﻣﺍ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻚﻳ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ (ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﺯﺍ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ 0/67 ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﺎﺑ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻲﺠﻨﺳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ 13 ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ .ﻢﻴﻫﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ 1995-2005 ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻲﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺹﺍﻮﺧ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﻳ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺎﻣ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻭ .ﻢﻴﻨﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ

ͲϱϬϬϬ Ϭ ϱϬϬϬ ϭϬϬϬϬ ϭϱϬϬϬ ϮϬϬϬϬ ϮϱϬϬϬ

Ϭ Ϯ ϰ ϲ ϴ ϭϬ ϭϮ ϭϰ

Ϫϧ΍ήγ̶ϠΧ΍ΩκϟΎΧΎϧΪϴϟϮΗ

̶ϠΧ΍ΩκϟΎΧΎϧΪϴϟϮΗί΍Ζϣϼγ̵ΎϫϪϨϳΰϫϢϬγ

(2005) ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﻣﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ :3ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ

(7)

:ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺎﻣ ،ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﻭ (^LHEXP) ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ .ﻢﻴﻫﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺍﺭ (^LGDP) ﺎﺑ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ ﻢﻬﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺶﺷ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﭼﺮﻫ ،ﻢﻴﻨﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺵﻭﺭ .ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻲﻀﻗﺎﻨﺘﻣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ

:ﺯﺍ ﺪﻨﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﺎﻫ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ [12](^LLC) ﻮﭼ ﻭ ﻦﻴﻟ ،ﻦﻳﻮﻟ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ - [13](^IPS)ﻦﻴﺷ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮﺴﭘ ،ﻢﻳﺍ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ - [14]ﮓﻧﻮﺗﺮﺑ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ -

ﻭ ﻻﺍﺩﺎﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ^PP-ﺮﺸﻴﻓ ﻭ ^ADF-ﺮﺸﻴﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ - .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ (2001)ﻱﻮﭼ ﻭ (1999) ﻭﻭ [15]ﻱﺭﺪﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ - ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﻦﻴﺑ ^AR(1) ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺢﻳﺮﺸﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

:ﻢﻳﺮﻴﮔ ﻲﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺮﻳﺯ

1

it i it it i it

Y =ρY ₋ +X ′δ +ε

ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ) ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ Y_it ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﺎﻳ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ

t=1,2, ،ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻑﺮﻌﻣ ⁱ=1,2, … ,^N ،(ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ ﺕﺍﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻑﺮﻌﻣ …… ,^Ti

ͲϱϬϬϬ Ϭ ϱϬϬϬ ϭϬϬϬϬ ϭϱϬϬϬ ϮϬϬϬϬ ϮϱϬϬϬ

Ϭ Ϯ ϰ ϲ ϴ ϭϬ ϭϮ ϭϰ

̶ϠΧ΍ΩκϟΎΧΎϧΪϴϟϮΗί΍Ζϣϼγ̵ΎϫϪϨϳΰϫϢϬγ

(2005) ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ :4ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ

ͲϭϬϬϬϬ ͲϱϬϬϬ Ϭ ϱϬϬϬ ϭϬϬϬϬ ϭϱϬϬϬ ϮϬϬϬϬ ϮϱϬϬϬ

Ϭ ϭϬ ϮϬ ϯϬ ϰϬ ϱϬ ϲϬ ϳϬ ϴϬ ϵϬ

̶̳ΪϧίϪΑΪϴϣ΍

(2005) ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻲﮔﺪﻧﺯ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﻣﺍ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ :5ﺭﺍﺩﻮﻤﻧ

(8)

ﺃﺪﺒﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺽﺮﻋ ﺪﻨﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻲﻌﻄﻗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺎﻤﻧ X_it ،ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻭ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫﺩﻮﺧ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ρ_i ،ﻪﻳﻭﺍﺯ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ δ_i ،ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻪﻛ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻝﻼﺧﺍ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ε_it

ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ρ_i p1 ﺮﮔﺍ .ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻢﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ Y_i ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ρi =1 ﻪﭽﻧﺎﻨﭼ ﻭ ﺎﻧﺎﻣ Y_i ﺕﺭﻮﺻ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻘﻠﺗ ﺎﻧﺎﻣﺎﻧ ﻭ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ρ_i ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺶﻴﭘ ﻭﺩ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻛﺮﺘﺸﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻢﻴﻨﻛ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻝﻭﺍ ؛ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪﻤﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ρ_i ﻪﻛ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ .(ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻳ i ﺮﻫ ﻱﺍﺯﺍ ﻪﺑρ_i =ρ) ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺪﻫ ﻭ ﮓﻧﻮﺗﺮﺑ ،^LLC ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻡﻭﺩ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ .ﺪﻧﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺰﻳﺭ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ

IPS ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ .ﺩﻮﺸﻧ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ ρi

.ﺪﻧﺭﺍﻮﺘﺳﺍ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺮﺸﻴﻓ ﻉﻮﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ ،ﺮﻔﺻ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ،ﻱﺭﺪﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﻚﻳ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ 3ﻭ2 ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻤﻫ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﺻﻼﺧ ﻪﺻﻼﺧ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﻪﻛ ﺖﻔﮔ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﮓﻧﻮﺗﺮﺑ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺰﺟ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻪﻤﻫ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ (^LGDP) ﺮﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ (^LHEXP) ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﻭ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺎﻣﺍ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺎﻧﺎﻣﺎﻧ ﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻪﻤﻫ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻪﻴﻠﻛ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻞﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﺭﺎﺑ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻩﺪﺸﻧ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻲﻳﻮﺟ ﻪﻓﺮﺻ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ) ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﺎﻧﺎﻣ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ .(ﺖﺳﺍ

LHEXP ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ : 3 ﻝﻭﺪﺟ

ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺵﻭﺭ (P-value) ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ

ﺮﻔﺻ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ

PP - Fisher Chi-square (0/79) ،19/89

ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺎﻣﺎﻧ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺽﺮﻓ

Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat (0/97) ،1/98

Breitung t-stat (0/12) ،1/14

Hadri Z-stat (0/000) ،6/16

ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺎﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺽﺮﻓ

ADF - Fisher Chi-square (0/74) ،21/03

Levin, Lin & Chu t (0/38) ،0/30

.ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ^P-Value ﻑﺮﻌﻣ ﺰﺘﻧﺍﺮﭘ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺩﺍﺪﻋﺍ :ﺕﺎﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ

LGDP ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ : 2 ﻝﻭﺪﺟ

PP - Fisher Chi-square (0/620) ،22/97

Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat (1/000) ،4/47

Breitung t-stat (0/040) ،-1/75

ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺎﻣﺎﻧ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺽﺮﻓ

Hadri Z-stat (0/000) ،-6/17

ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺎﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺽﺮﻓ

ADF - Fisher Chi-square (0/902) ،17/20

Levin, Lin & Chu t (0/759) ،0/68

(9)

:ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻭ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ،ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻩﺪﻳﺍ .ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﻪﭼﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻱﻭﺎﺣ) ﺎﻧﺎﻣﺎﻧ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺮﺳ ﺐﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﺎﻣﺍ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ (ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ .ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ (ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻭ) ﺎﻧﺎﻣ ،ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻄﺧ ﺪﻨﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻚﻤﻛ ﺎﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ .ﻢﻴﻨﻛ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺍﺭ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺍ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺢﻴﺤﺻ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻚﻳ ﺮﮔﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺪﻜﻳ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﻪﺑ .ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺢﻳﺮﺼﺗ (ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ) ﻚﻴﺗﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﺹﻮﺼﺧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﺕﺭﻮﺻﺭﺩ .ﺪﻫﺩ ﻲﻤﻧ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺐﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻚﻳ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺎﻧﺎﻣﺎﻧ ﻢﻏﺭ ﻲﻠﻋ ﻢﻳﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺎﻣ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻭ ﺎﻧﺎﻣ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻴﺗﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻄﺧ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ،ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﻴﻏ ﺭﺩ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻢﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻦﻴﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ .ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻝﺍﺆﺳ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ [16].ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻡﺎﮕﻨﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻭ1995) ﻲﻧﻭﺭﺪﭘ ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪﺑ ًﺎﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ - ﻞﮕﻧﺍ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ (1999 ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺪﻧﺎﻤﻴﻗﺎﺑ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺎﻧﺎﻣ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ (1987) ﺮﺠﻧﺮﮔ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻣﺎﮕﻨﻫ ،ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻚﻳ [17].ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﻲﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺖﺳﺍ ^I(1) ﺎﻳ 1 ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺪﻧﺎﻤﻴﻗﺎﺑ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﺲﭘ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﮔﺍ

ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻑﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ .ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﺎﻳ ^I(0) ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ^I(1) ﻩﺪﻧﺎﻤﻴﻗﺎﺑ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺒﻧ ﻪﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻦﻳﺍ (1999) ﻭﺍﺎﻛ ﻭ (2004) ﻲﻧﻭﺭﺪﭘ .ﺩﻮﺑ [18].ﺪﻧﺩﺍﺩ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁ 4 ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺩﺩﺮﮔ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﻳ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﻪﻴﻠﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻱﻮﻗ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻚﻳ ﻪﻛ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﻨﻣ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻭ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻭﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺹﻮﺼﺧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺕﺎﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ) ﻢﻴﻨﻛ ﻲﻣ [19]:(ﺪﻴﻨﻛ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﺍﺭ (2007) ﺲﻳﺭﺩﻮﮔ ﻭ

it it t

i t

i i

it it t

i t

i t i i it

X y

y

ε β λ β

λ β α

ε β β

β λ α

+ Δ + Δ +

− +

=

+ Δ + Δ + +

+

= Δ

−

3 1 , 2 1 1 , 1 ,

3 1 , 2 1 , 1 1 ,

] ) ( [

X ﻭ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻢﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ^y ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺶﺸﻛ β₃ .ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ

λ ﻭ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻑﺮﻌﻣ β₁ λ ﻭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻝﻮﻃ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻭ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﻭ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ

.ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ 5 ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ

ﻲﻧﻭﺭﺪﭘ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ :4 ﻝﻭﺪﺟ

Group rho-Statistic (0/0004) ،3/72

ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺽﺮﻓ

Group PP-Statistic (0/0085) ،-2/77

Group ADF-Statistic (0/000) ،-8/11

(10)

ﺕﺪﻣ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻖﺑﺎﻄﻣ (0/29)ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ

.ﺖﺳﺍ (0/94)ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘﻤﻛ ﻭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻱﻮﻗ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻚﻳ ﺪﻨﭼﺮﻫ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺮﺑ ﺎﻣﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺯﻮﻨﻫ (ﺶﺸﻛ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ) ﻻﺎﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻑﻼﺧ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻤﻧ ﻲﻘﻠﺗ ﺲﻛﻮﻟ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻲﮔﺪﻨﺒﺴﭼ ﺮﺑ ﺖﻟﻻﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ (-0/16)ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻴﻧ ﺭﺩﺎﻗ ﻭ ﻞﻳﺎﻣ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻊﻗﺍﻭ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻋﺮﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻙﻮﺷ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ .ﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻭ ﺚﺤﺑ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻱ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻨﻣ ﻮﻀﻋ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ 13 ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺘﺒﻣ .ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ 1995-2005 ﺓﺭﻭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ،ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻲﻔﻴﺻﻮﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻱﻮﻗ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻚﻳ ﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻨﭼﺮﻫ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺎﻣﺍ ،ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﭽﻧﺁ ﺎﺑ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺐﻟﺎﻏ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻨﭼ ﺮﻫ ﻊﻗﺍﻭ ﺭﺩ .ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﺭﺎﮔﺯﺎﺳ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺪﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ،ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﺷﺍﺪﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻢﻬﺳ ،ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺎﻣﺍ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ (ﺖﻔﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﺑ) ﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻣ ﻱﺎﻋﺩﺍ ﺖﺤﺻ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻠﻴﻟﺩ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻤﻧ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﺒﻗﺍﺮﻣ ﻥﺩﻮﺒﻧ ﺲﻛﻮﻟ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ

.ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻲﺘﺣ ﻭ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎﺣ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺐﻴﻏﺮﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻣ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ .ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺎﻧﺎﻣﺎﻧ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺔﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺬﻟ .ﻢﻴﺷﺎﺑﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻚﻳ ﺯﻮﻨﻫ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺎﻧﺎﻣﺎﻧ ﻢﻏﺭ ﻲﻠﻋ ﻪﻛ ﻢﻳﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ (ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ) ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻭ 1995) ﻲﻧﻭﺭﺪﭘ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﺎﺑ (1999 ،ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﺣ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺷ ﻑﻼﺧ ﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﺎﻨﻣ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﺸﻛ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻤﻧ ﻲﻘﻠﺗ ﺲﻛﻮﻟ ﻻﺎﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻚﻳ ﻢﻬﺳ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ،ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻲﻤﻧ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺍﺬﻟ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘﻤﻛ ﺐﺗﺍﺮﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﻪﺑ .ﺪﻨﻫﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ (0/29) ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﮔﺪﻨﺒﺴﭼ ﺮﺑ ﺖﻟﻻﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻻﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻡﺎﻤﺘﻫﺍ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻧﺎﻜﺗ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻘﻓﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺩﻮﻤﻋ ﺖﻟﺍﺪﻋ ،ﻲﺸﺨﺑﺮﺛﺍ - ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻝﺎﺜﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ ﻭ ﺖﺒﻗﺍﺮﻣ ﺔﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﺔﻤﻴﺑ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺍ ﻪﻤﻴﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺔﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ءﺎﻘﺗﺭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻦﻳﺮﺘﻤﻬﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﻣﺭﺩ .ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﻲﺘﻣﻼﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ

ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻭ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ :5ﻝﻭﺪﺟ

ﺕﺪﻣ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺶﺸﻛ

ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ

(0/006) ،0/29 (0/000) ،0/94

(0/04) ،-0/16

.ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ P-Value ﻑﺮﻌﻣ ﺰﺘﻧﺍﺮﭘ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺩﺍﺪﻋﺍ :ﺕﺎﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ

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Vol.12/No.35/Spring2009

A Study on Health Expenditures in Relation with Economics Growth in Middle East and North Africa

(MENA) Countries

Mehrara M.¹ / Fazaeli A.²

Abstract

Introduction: One of the most important challenges in health systems is to determine the quantity of resources a country devotes to medical care. The share of the health expenditures of GDP in developed countries is often more than developing countries, therefore as the level of development increases; health expenditures increase too.

Methods: This paper examines the stationary and cointegration of health expenditure and GDP based on the panel co-integration analysis, for a sample of 13 MENA countries using data for the period 1995-2005.

Results: Unit root and trend stationary results indicate that both health expenditure and GDP are non- stationary. Even though, the findings indicate that health expenditure and GDP are co- integrated.

Conclusion: The fraction of expenditure devoted to health care of total GDP decreases with GDP.

This implies that health care is not a luxury good in MENA countries.

Keywords: Health Expenditure, Co-Integration, Unit Root, Panel Data, Economic Growth, Downloaded from jha.iums.ac.ir at 9:16 IRDT on Sunday September 3rd 2017 MENA