0 1 i.r T I
KINHTE
«
'^i PHAN CAP TAI KHOA vA TANG TRlTdNG KINH TE:
MINH CHITNG Cf VIET NAM
Ngay nhan bai: 12/10/2014 Ngaynhan lai: 17/11/2014 Ngay duyet dang: 26/03/2015
Trdn Phgm Khdnh Todn'
Tdc dong cua phdn cdp tdi khda lin tdng trudng kinh te Id chu di dugc tranh ludn trong ly thuyit kinh ti vd nghien cuu thirc nghiim. Bdi nghien cuu phdn tich tdc ddng cua phdn cdp tdi khda din tdng trudng kinh ti tgi Viet Nam trong giai dogn 1998-2012 Qua phdn tich hdi qi^ dir lieu bdng, bdng phuang phdp GLS cho thay phdn cdp chi ngdn sdch cd tdc ddng nguac chiiu vd tuyin tinh din tdng trudng kinh ti; trong khi phdn cdp thu ngdn sdch tin ngirgc lgi. Ngodi ra, trong qud trinh phdn tich, kit qud nghiin cuu cUng cho thdy, luc lugng lao ddng, ddu tu tu nhdn tdc ddng ciing chieu len tdng trudng kinh te vd lam phdt cd quan hi nghich chiiu.
Tir khda: phdn cdp, phdn cdp tdi khda. tang trirdng kinh ti. Viet Nam.
ABSTRACT
Impacts of fiscal decentralization on economic growth have been discussed in many theoretical and empirical studies. This study analyses the impacts of fiscal decentralization on economic growth in Vietnam during 1998-2012 By employing panel data with GLS method, the research shows that expenditure decentralization has negative effect, while revenue decentralization has positive effect. In addition, the research demonstrates that labour forces, private investments positively coirelated with economic growth while inflation is not.
Keywords: decentralization, fiscal decentralization, economic growth, Vietnam.
1. Giffi thieu
Tang trua;ig kinh te va cac chinh sach tai khoa hgp ly se quyet dinh phuc lgi xa hpi cua mpt quoc gia. Phi tap trung hoa - su chuyen giao cac quyen Iuc ve chinh tri, tai chinh cho chinh quyen dia phuang noi len nhu mgt trong nhimg chinh sach tai khoa quoc gia quan trpng de tien hanh phan bo nguon luc, tang cucmg phat trien kinh te dua vao su lgi the ve thong tin cua chinh quyen ckp duoi so vai chinh quySn trung ucmg. Ngoai ra, phan cap tai khoa tuy CO tinh chat dia phuang nhung cung gop phan vao viec khac phuc suy thoai kinh tg (Inncocents, 2011).
Tuy nhien, vai tro cua phan cip tai khoa d6i vdi tang trudng kinh^tl con la mot chu dl gay nhieu tranh cai va c'4n them nhilu nghien
cuu (Morgan, 2002). Mgt so nha nghien cmi cho rang tac dgng cua phan cap tai khoa len tang truong kinh te la tieu cyc hoac khong co m6i lien he (Davoodi & Zou, 1998; Baskaran
& Feld, 2009), trong khi mpt so nha nghien cuu khac lai tin rang cd tac dgng tich cue len tang hirdng kinh tk (lmi, 2005).
0 Viet Nam, ke tir khi tiln hanh chinh s^h Ddi mdi kinh te 1986. va dac biet sau khi co Luat Ngan sach nha nudc nam 1996 va svta ddi nam 2002, Chinh phu da tien hanh cai each ciiinh sach tai khoa sau rgng, ddi mdi phan cip quan ly tai khoa vdi muc tieu thuc diy tang trudi^ kinh te ben vung trong dai han. Luat Ngan sach nha nudc 2002 da tao nhilu quyln han han trong quan ly cac boat dpng chi tieu tai chinh quyln cac cap tai dia phuong, cu thl la Uy ban nhan dan cac cap nhSm gia tang tinh chu dgng.
' ThS, So C6ng Thuang Thanh ph6 H6 Chi Minh. Email: khanhtoan014@gniail,com
TAP CHl KHOA HOC TRUONG OAI HOC MOTP.HCM-S6 2 (41) 2015
tinh hieu qua phan bo cho timg dia phuang.
Vdi dix lieu thu thap tii cac tinli/thanh pho true tbupc Trung uong trong giai doan 1998-2012, muc tieu ciia nghien cuu nham phan tich tac dgn^ cua phan cap tai khda len tang truang kinh te.
2. Cff Sff ly thuyet
Phan cap dugc hieu la mgt qua trinh chuyen giao trach nhiem va quyen han tu chinh quyen trung uong cho chinh quyen dia phuang hay khu vuc tu nhan (World Bank, 2001). Phan cap tai khda lien quan den su phan phoi nguon luc cong giira chinh quyen trung uang va chinh quyen dia phuong trong dd nhan manh hai van de ca ban la su phan chia nguon thu va nhiem vu chi (Davey, 2003).
Theo Hanai va Huyen (2004), phan cap tai khda cd the dinh nghla la su phan cong trach nhiem va quyen han, cung nhu lgi ich, giiia cac cap khac nhau cua chinh quyen ve quan ly va thuc hien ngan sach.
Muc dich ciia phan cap tai khda la tang hieu qua phan bd dau tu. Stigler (1957) cho r&ng "mgt chinh phii dai dien boat dgng tdt nhat khi no d gSn dan nhat" va "ngudi dan cd quyen quyet dinh cho loai hinh va sd lugng dich vu cdng ma hp can". Cdn Olson (1969) de xuit "nguyen ly tai khda tuong duang" cd nghta la pham vi ciia quyen han va lgi ich cua dich vu cong phai trung nhau nham dam bao Igi ich bien ciia viec cung cap djch vu do bang vdi chi phi bien va dam bao rang khdng cd
"ngudi an theo" (free rider). Sau dd._ Dates (1993) cu thl hda them khi cho ring mdi dich vu cdng nen dugc cung ung bdi cap chinh quyln kilm soat khu vue dia ly tdi thieu trong do cd the "npi hda" dugc cac lgi i'ch va chi phi khi cung ckp cac dich vu nay.
Nghien cuu eua Mello va Barenstein (2001) su dung du lieu bang cua 78 quoc gia tir nam 1980 din nam 1992 da cho thay su phan cip tai khda va quan tri cong cd tac dpng tich cue din tang trudng kinh te. Bang chung thuc nghiem ve tac ddng tich cue ciia phan cap tai khda cung dugc tim thay tai Pasikan trong hai giai doan 1971-2005 va 1972-2009 (Malik
& ctg, 2005; Faridi, 201 l).Vdi bg du lieu ctia 28 tinh tai Trung Quoc trong giai doan tir 1970
den 1993, Lin v^ Liu (2000) cung tim thay ket qua tuang tu.
Cac ly thuyet va nghien cuu thuc nghiem ung hg viec phan cap tai khda deu cho rang nhd d gan dan han so vdi chinh quyen trung uong, chinh quyen dia phuang co thdng tin tdt hon ve nhu cau va y mudn cua ngudi dan, ddng thdi thau hieu hem nhijng dieu kien dac thil ciia dja phuang. Vi vay, chinh quyen dia phuong cd the dap ung nhanh ban va hieu qua ban frudc cac yeu cau cua ngudi dan so vdi chinh quyen trung uang (Ebel & Yilmaz, 2002). Nguge lai, vi ngudi dan d gan chinh quyen dia phuang nen tieng noi cua hp se cd tac dgng true tiep den chinh quyen dia phuang trong qua trinh su dung ngan sach nha nudc, nang cao tinh minh bach va trach nhiem giai trinh (Dabla, 2006). Han niia, viec thuc day phan cap tai khda khdng nhiJng thuc day cai thien hieu qua Pareto ma cdn giam su bat binh dang ve kinh te giiia cac dja phuang (Ezcurra
& Pasucal, 2008).
Tuy nhien, ben canh do, viec phan cap tai khda cung co nhiing diem nii ro dang phai luu y, dac biet la khi phan cap tai khda qua manh me (Morgan, 2002). Trudc het, dd la viec gia tang bat binh dang ve tai chinh giiJa cac dja phuang do viec thu thue khdng tuong xung vdi quy md chi tieu cua dia phuang. Hai la, viec gia tang phan cap cd the tang nii ro trong quan ly ngudn luc dia phuang (ADB, 2004).
Nghien ciiu ciia Roden (2002) cho rang phan cip tai khoa la tieu cue, dac biet la d cac qudc gia dang phat trien va cac nen kinh te dang chuyen doi. Ong lap luan rang cac van de thudng di kem vdi phan cap ia tham hut ngan sach. tham nhung, tac dpng cua cae nhdm lgi ich. gia tang bat binh dang va cuoi ciing la nen kinh tl giam tang trudng. Sir dung dii lieu cua 30 quoc gia, Mello (2000) khang dinh thit bai ciia viec phan cap tai khda la do thanh kien ve tham hut tai khda va quan tri cdng yeu kem, khdng dap img cac yeu cau ca ban ciia chinh sach phi tSp trung hda. Nghien cuu tai Nigeria cLia Philip va Isah (2012) cung cho thay phan cap ngudn thu va nhiem vu chi cd tac dpng tieu cue den tang trudng.
KINH TE
Tai Viet Nam, bSng phuang phap udc lugng POLS, Hoang Thi Chinh Thon va ctg (2010) cho ring ngudn chi dau tu cap huy?n can dugc tang cuong, trong khi chi dau tu cap tinh nen giam d l thuc diy kinh t l dia phuang.
Nghien ciin cua Pham Thl Anh (2008) thu thap sd lieu tir 61 tinh. thanh trong giai doan 2001-2005 cho thiy chi tieu cong cho diu tu CO tac dpng tich cue den tang trudng.
3. Phirong phap nghien ciru va dir lieu nghien cuu
3.1. Mo hinh nghien ciru
Nghien cim dua tren nen tang nghien cuu trudc cua Pose va Kroijer (2009), mo hinh nghien cmi tac dpng cua phan cap chi ngan sach den tang trudng kinh te dugc de nghi nhu sau:
Y - piPop + |32lnv + pjFe + ^4pe^+
pshif+peOp + a (1)
Binh phuang cua bien Fe dugc dua vao md hinh nham xac dinh mdi quan he phi tuyen giiia phan cap chi ngan sach va tang trudng kinh te. Tuang tu nhu tren, de tim hieu tac ddng ciia phan cap thu ngan sach den tang trudng kinh te, ta cd md hinh.
Y ^
S^Inf+B (2)
pilnv + psFr + !34Fr^
- PiPop peOp + a
Bien phu thuoc (Y) dugc do bang log tu nhien cua GDP binh quan dau ngudi cua tinh.
Day la bien dai dien cho tang trudng kinh te.
Cac bien dgc lap dugc liet ke dudi day:
- Fe: bien dai dien phan cap chi ngan sach, ty le % tong chi ngan sach tinh/tong chi ngan sach.
- Fr: bien dai dien phan cap thu ngan sach, ty le % tdng thu ngan sach tinh/tdng thu ngan sach. Thu ngan sach khdng bao gom cac khoan hd trg, chuyen giao tir trung uang cho cac tinh/thanh.
- Inv: bien dai dien cho dau tu' tu nhan, lay log tu nhien ciia von dau tu tu nhan.
- Laf: la ty le luc luoTig lao dpng - Inf: la ty le lam phat ciia tinh - Op: bien do ludng do md thuang mai cua dia phuang, la ty le cua t6ng kim ngaeh
xuit nhap khiu /GDP.
3.2. Dir lieu nghien ciru
Dua vao md hinh nghien cuu, tac gia thu thap s6 lieu theo nam cho 64 tinh, thanh phi true thuoc trung uang trong giai doan 1998 ~ 2012. Du' lieu nghiSn cuu dugc thu t h | p tir an phim T6ng cue Th6ng ke. Do vay, dam bao tinh tin cay v l s6 lieu. Trong qua trinh thu thSp s6 lieu, nghien cuu loai bd tinh Quang Ngai do khdng dam bao s6 lieu thu thap; ngoai ra, tinh Ha Tay va thu d6 Ha Ndi dugc sap nhap vao nam 2007, do do tac gia da hgp nhat hai bg s6 lieu nay. Nhu vay, sau khi ra soat, bd dii liSu nghien cuu cd 930 quan sat (T^15; N^62)
3.3. Phirang phdp nghiin curu D I tim hieu cac yeu to tac dpng den tang trudng kinh t l , tac gia tiep c§n ude lugng hai md hinh (1) va (2) gdm; mo hinh tac ddng co dinh (FE) va mo hinh tac dpng ngau nhien (RE). TiJ dd, dua vao kiem dinh Hausman de lua chpn md hinh phu hpp.
Su khac biet giiia md hinh FE va RE:
FE: Vdi gia dinh moi thuc the deu co nhung dac diem rieng biet cd the anh hudng den cac bien giai thich, FE phan tich moi tuong quan nay giiia phan du cua mdi thuc the vdi cac bien giai thich qua dd kiem soat va tach anh hudng ciia cac dac diem rieng biet (khdng ddi theo thdi gian) ra khdi cac biln giai thich de CO the udc lugng nhiing anh hudng thuc cua bien giai thich len biln phu thuSc.
RE: Mo hinh hoi quy theo hinh thuc riSp can anh hudng ngau nhien. Y tu'dng ciia tilp can nay cho rang su khac biet v l dilu kien dac thil ciia cac dan vi cheo chira dung frong sai s6 ngau nhien. Dae diem rieng giiia cac thuc the dugc gia sir la ngau nhien va khong tuang quan den bien giai thich.
4. Phan tich va thao luan ket qua nghien cihi
4.1. Kit qud thong ke mo td Ket qua thong ke md ta ddi vdi cac bien nghien cuu dugc thl hien d Bang 1. Day la du lieu bang can doi, sd quan sat trong dii lieu nghien cuu la 930 quan sat.
TAP CHl KHOA HOC TRUONG DAI HOC MO TP.HCM - SO 2 (41) 2015
Bang 1. Ket qua thong ke mo ta
STT
I 2 3 4 5 6 7
Ten biln
Tang tmong kinh t^
Lire lugng lao dgng Dau tu tu nhan Phan cap chi ngan sach PhSn cap thu ngan sach Do mo thuong mai cua tinh
Lam phat
Ky hifu Y
Laf Inv Fe Fr
Op Inf
So l u ^ n g 930
930 930 930 930 930 930
Min
6,7835
83.723 4.1913 0.1205 0.0486
0,0006 92.17
Max 12.1543
122.18 11.598 1.8876 1.4576 7.774 136.88
Mean 8,7431
102.32 7.4031 0.53682 0.3551 0.645 102.32
Std.
Deviation 0,79961
3.7321 1.2454 0.21931 0.21607 0.982
6.76
Xem xet vao bien phu thudc tang trudng kinh tl, nghien cim cho thay tang trudng kinh tl dao dpng trong khoang 6,7835% den
12,1543% vdi dp lech chuin la 0,79961%.
Tang frudng kinh tl tai cac tinh/thanh tuang ddi khdng ddng diu, nd phan anh thuc te tang trudng tai mgt sd dia phuang vugt trdi han so vdi cac tinh cdn lai. Qua thdng ke sd lieu, cac dia phuang d vung Ddng Nam Bd va Tay Nam Bg cd thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi va tang trudng thu nhap cao nhat nudc, ke den la cac dia phuong vimg Ddng bang Bac Bg.
Gia hi phan cip chi ngan sach trong miu nghien ciru cd mirc trung binh la 0.53% vdi do lech chuin la 0.21%; phan cip thu ngan sach cd mirc trung binh la 0.35% vdi dd lech chuin la 0.21%. Hiu hit cac dia phuang d viing Bac Trung Bd, Duyen hai mien Trung va Tay nguyen cd miirc phan cap tai khda binh quan diu ngudi cao nhit. Dilu nay phan anh thuc tl la cac dja phuang nay khdng cd dilu tilt ngan sach vl trung ucmg ma de lai cac ngudn thu de can ddi ngan sach.
Chi sd lam phat cao nhat dat gia tri 136.88%, thip nhit dat 92.17%, gia tri trung
binh trong giai doan nghien cmi la 102.32%.
Chi tieu eudi ciing ciing tac dpng den tang trudng kmh tl la dd md diuang mai. Dp md thuong mai dat gia tri trung binh la 0.645%.
4.2. Kit qud phdn tich hoi quy Sau khi xem xet cac bien trong mo hinh nghien cuu thdng qua ma tran tuang quan va kilm tra he sd nhan tu phdng dai (VIF), ket qua cho thiy khdng co hien tugng da cgng tuyen.
Nghien cim su dung phuong phap hdi quy Fixed Effect (FE) va Radom Effect (RE) dl chpn lua md hinh phan tich. Viec lira chpn giiia hai mo hinh FE va RE se thdng quan kilm dinh Hausman. Ngoai ra, nghien cim dung kilm dinh Wald de kiem dinh phuang sai thay ddi trong md hinh FE va RE va kiem dinh Wooldridge dl kiem dinh tu tuang quan trong md hinh FE va RE.
Ket qua kiem dinh Hausman ciia 02 trudng hop hdi quy eho thay cac he sd Prob diu iihd ban 0.05 (5%) nen phuang phap FE se dugc su dung frong md hinh nghien ciiu.
KINH TE
Bang 2. KSt qua kiem dinh Hausman cho 2 mo hinh
L(ra chgn
Ngudn: Tinh todn cita tdc gid
Kit qua kiSm dinh tit Bang 3 cho thiy thay d6i va hien tugng tu tuong quan trong mo kiSm dinh Wald va Idlm dinh Woohidge co hinh. Be khjc phuc hien tuong nay, nghien cac he s6 Prob diu nho hon 0.05. Nhu vay, cac ctiu sii dung phuang phap GLS de udc lucmg mo hinh diu t6n tai hien tugng phuong sai mo hinh.
Bang 3. K i t qua kilm dinh Wald va kiem dinh Woolridge STT
1 2
Ten kiem djnb Phuong sai thay doi (Ki6m dinh Wald) Ty tucmg quan (ki8m dinh Woolridge)
Mo hinh 1
0.0000
0.0029
2 0.0000 0.0037 Ngudn: Tinh todn ciia tdc gid
Kit qua kilm dinh dugc thl hien trong bang dudi
Bang 4. Ket qua irdc lirgng cho hai mo hinh
STT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Bien
Laf Inv Fe Fe=
Fr Fr Op Inf Cons
Mo ilinh 1 H e s S (Coef) 0.032***
0.052*
(0 0 2 9 ) "
(0.O.S3)*
0.083 (0.021)*' 0 . 0 4 7 " *
Gia tri P (P - value) 0.366 0.083 0.009 0.080
3.462 -L863 0.006
M8 hinli 2 He so (Coef) 0.057**
0.041**
0.103*
0 . 0 3 7 "
0.064 (0.172)*
0.033***
Gia trj P (P - value) 0.115 0.388
0.063 0.084 0.016 -0.093 0.190 Ghi chii: *, **, *** tuang iing vol miic y nghia lln luot la 10%, 5% va 1
Nguon. Tinh loan cm tdc gid
Quan sat tir bang tren ta nhan thdy: biln sd dau tu tu nhan (Inv) va biln luc Iugng Iao ddng (Laf) cd tac ddng ciing chieu d ca hai md hinh; bien so lam phat (Inf) cd tac dpng nghich chilu d ca hai md hinh. C) mo hinh 1, biln s6
phan cap chi ngan sach (Fe) va binh phuang chi ngan sach (Fe^) cd tac dgng nghich chieu;
d md hinh 2, bien sd biln sd phan cap thu ngan sach (Fr) va binh phuang thu ng3n sach (Fr^) thi nguge lai. Ngoai ra, nghien cim ehua phat
i.
TAP CHI KHOA HOC TRUONG DAI HOC MOTP.HCM - S O 2 (41) 2015 69
hien moi quan he giua do md thuang mai vdi tang trudng dia phuang.
4.3. Thdo iuan kit qud
TIT ket qua hoi quy trong Bang 4, nghien cuu phan tich cac bien cd y nghTa trong md hinh nghien cuu nhu sau:
Fe, Fe : Bien nay do ludng muc do phan cap chi ngan sach. Fe cd y nghla thdng ke va quan he nghich chilu din tang trudng kinh tl.
Khi nghien cuu ve tac ddng cua phan c4p chi ngan sach Zang va Zou (2001) ciing da cho thay ket qua tucmg tu.
(^ md hinh (1) thi bien Fe^ ciing cd y nghia thdng ke va tac ddng tieu cue din tang trudng kinh te. Ket qua nay cho thay mdi quan he giiia phan cap chi ngan sach tai Viet Nam dudng nhu tuyen tinh: tac dpng tieu cue cang Idn han neu qua trinh phan cap dugc day manh. Dieu nay khdng iing hd quan diem tac dgng cua phan cap ngan sach den tang trudng kinh te d dang phi tuyen, cd hinh chii- U nguge (Thieben, 2003).
Ty le chi cda ngan sach dia phuang trong tdng chi ngan sach nha nudc ciing khdng ngiing gia tang tir 37.9% giai doan 1996-2000 len 47.2% trong nam 2008 va chilm han 50%
giai doan 2009-2011. Ddi vdi nln kmh tl Viet Nam, ben canh nhiing thanh tuu da dat dugc, thi qua trinh phan cap chi ngan sach da xuat hien nhihig han chl nhu: qua trinh phan cap tran Ian, thilu quy hoach va phan tan dan den chi tieu qua nhieu gay tham hut ngan sach;
chit lugng quy hoach kem dan tdi kem hieu qua trong dAu tu edng, tinh minh bach va trach nhiem giai trinh thip (Vu Thanh TLT Anh, 2012). Chinh dilu nay da dSn den xuit hien hien tugng diu tu cdng lan at dau tu tu nhan, lam giam tang trudng kinh te trong nhung nam gin day (To Trung Thanh & Nguyen Chi Dung, 2011).
Fr, Fr^: Bien nay do ludng muc do phan cip thu ngan saeh. Fr cd y nghla thong ke va tac ddng CLing chieu ddi vdi tang trudng kinh tl. Kit qua nghien cdu nay phu hgp vdi ket luan cua Faridi (2011).
Ket qua nghifin cuu phan anh cap chinh quyln tinh/thanh lam t6t cdng tac huy ddng
cac nguon thu tir cac boat ddng kinh te cua dia phuang va do dd dan tdi tang trudng kinh tl cua ca nudc ndi chung va tang trudng dia phuang ndi rieng. Tuy nhien, theo Vu Sy Cudng (2013) ty le thu ngan sach cua cac dia phuang d§ tang Ifin dang ke trong thdi gian gan day khdng xuat phat tir viec thay ddi trong phan cap tai khoa theo hudng de lai nguon thu nhieu han cho cac dia phuang ma la do cac dja phuang tap trung khai thac cac ngudn thu dugc dl lai 100% nhu nguin thu tii bit dong san, x6 sd kien thiet, cac ngudn thu tii' chuyln quyen sd dung dat. Su phu thudc rit Idn vao ngudn thu tu bat ddng san rat dl lam cho cac dia phuang rai vao "can benh Ha Lan"'.
Inf: Nghien cuu nay cho thay ty le lam phat trong thdi gian viia qua tae ddng tieu cue den t5ng trudng kinh te. Ket qua nghien cuu phil hgp vdi Sahamiz & Motama (2007). Tae ddng trai chieu cua bien nay ddi vdi tang trudng kinh te cho thay tang trudng kinh tl cao va ben virng chi cd the d^t dugc trong mdi trudng lam phat thip va on dinh, tao dilu kien cho cac nha dau tu quyet djnh dau tu dai han.
Ket qua nghien cuu nay phu hgp vdi thuc te cua Viet Nam trong nhiing nam qua.
Lam phat la van de dai dang, nhiic nhdi lam tdn thuang den nen kinh te. Ngoai tru giai doan 2000-2003 khi lam phat dn dinh thi ty le Iam phat d Viet Nam thudng xuyen cao hon va keo dai lau ban so vdi cac qudc gia trong cung khu vuc.
Ngoai ra, nghien ciiu cdn phat hifin lao dong dong gdp tich cue den tang trudng kij±
tl dia phuang vdi muc y nghia 5%; von dau tu tu nhan tac ddng ciing co tac ddng tuang tu vdi miic y nghia 1%. Tuy nhifin, nghien ciiu chua phat hien moi quan he giira dp md thuong mai vdi tang trudng dia phuang.
5. Ket luan va ham y chinh sach Muc tieu ciia bai nghien cuu la tim hilu mdi quan he giiia phan cap tai khda va tang trudng kinh te tai Viet Nam. Bing phuong phap GLS cho dii lieu bang cua 62 tinh/thanh tai Viet Nam trong giai do?n 1998-2012, nghifin ciiu tien hanh phan ti'ch tac dgng phan cap tai khda len tang trudng kinh tl dua tren md hinh tang trudng tan cd difin. Cac kit qua
70 KINH TE chinh dugc phat hien nhu sau:
- Cac bien luc lugng lao ddng va dau tu tu nhan cd hieu iing cimg chieu doi vdi tang trudng kinh te dia phuang
- Phan cap chi ngan sach tuong quan nghich chieu doi vdi tang trudng trong khi do phan cap thu ngan sach thi nguge Iai
- Lam phat co tuong quan nghich ehieu ddi vdi tang trudng va tac dgng cua dp md thuong mai khdng co y nghia thong ke.
Cac ham y chinh sach nit ra tii ket qua nghifin ciiu la: thu nhdt, v l phan cap chi ngan sach, can hoan thifin, doi mdi phan cap chi ngan sach. Ket quS nghien cuu cho thay co moi quan he tieu cue giiia phan cap ehi ngan sach va tang trudng tai Viet Nam. Thuc tien da minh chiing dieu nay. De khac phuc tinh trang nay, nen quy dinh kiem soat chat che chi tieu, dau tu cong; phai chuyen viec chi tieu cong theo cac yeu td dau vao sang chi tifiu theo cac mue tieu, ket qua dau ra. Tien hanh xay dung khudn khd chi tieu trung han (MTEF) dl phan bd cac ngudn lire hgp ly cho cac chuang trinh, du an uu tien trong ddi song xa hgi; ap dung
he thdng giam sat va chi tifiu cong (M&E) vao chi ngan sach.
Thu hai, chinh quyen cap tinh/thanh nen sir dung tlt, hieu qua cac ngudn thu dugc phan cip, cd bifin phap dfi bdi duong ngudn tiiu. Dl cd su phat trifin on dinh va ben vung, cac dia phuang cin giam dan su phu thudc ciia ngan sach vao cac nguon thu cd dugc tir dat dai.
Thir ba, ket qua nghifin cmi da chiing minh Iam phat c6 tac dgng tieu cue dfin tang trudng kinh tl. De kifim soat chat che lam phat can nang eao vai trd ddc lap ciia ngan hang trung uang trong dilu hanh chinh sach tien te;
cdng khai, minh bach cap nhat cac chinh sach tiln te, ap dung chinh sach lam phat muc tifiu.
Thit tu. tang cudng tinh minh bach va trach nhiem giai trinh ve tai khda d cap dja phuang, viec day manh phan cap tai khda chi CO the dat dugc muc tifiu mong mudn neu dugc gan lifin vdi tinh minh bach va trach nhiem giai trinh. Can co eo che thich hgp dfi tang cudng tinh minh bach, cdng khai trong quan ly ngan sach; tang ti'nh boat dgng kifim tra, gimn sat cua CO quan cd tham quyen nham bao dam tinh hifiu qua cua ngan sach nha nudc.
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