TAP CHf KHOA HOC TRL/ONG DAI HOC MOTP.HCM -SO 5 (38) 2014 3
KHUNG HOANG NOf CONG CHAU AU VA BAI HOC CHO VIET NAM
Ngay nhan bai: 10/04/2014 Nguyin Van Phiic' Ngay nhan lai: 10/06/2014
Ngay duy?t dang: 18/08/2014
TOM TAT
Bdi viil ndy nghien ciru khung hodng ng cdng chdu Au. Kit qud cho thdy Id: thu nhdt, khimg hodng co the xdy ra & nu&c co mirc ng cong rdt thdp, muc trung binh, hay muc cao. Thir hai, khung hodng ng cdng cd thi xdy ra & nu&c md tru&c dd cd ldc do tdng tru&ng kinh ti cao.
Thu ba, cdc bat dn kinh te vT md cd thi tich tu trong th&i gian ddi tru&c khi gdy ra khung hodng.
Thu tu, khung hodng ngdn hdng gdy tdn kem rdt nhiiu cho chinh phu, ldm ng cong ldng vgt sau dd. Thu ndm, khung hodng ng cdng tdc dgng rdt tiiu cue nghiem trgng din tdng tru&ng. Bdi hgc rut ra ddi v&i Viet Nam Id: thir nhdt, Viet Nam cdn gidm thdm hut ngdn sdch xuong muc thdp han hiin nay. Cdn rdt than trgng khi ldng ng cdng them niia. Khung hodng hodn todn cd the xdy ra & nu&c cd mice no cdng rdt thdp. Thir hai, nhimg bdt dn ddn den khiing hodng ng cdng cd the tich tu trong mdt thai gian ddi. Viet Nam cdn tdp trung khdc phuc cdc diim yeu ndy. Thu ba, Viet Nam cdn phdi lap trung gidi quyit ng xdu trong hi thdng ngdn hdng vd cdn phdi liru y ngdn chdn cdc bong bdng bdt ddng sdn, tdi chinh trong tuang lai. Thu tu, ng nu&c ngodi Viet Nam hiin nay (41,1% GDP) chua phdi la cao nhung khong phdi Id thdp. Viet Nam cdn than trgng khi vay them ng nu&c ngodi.
Tit khda: Ng cdng, khung hodng ng cdng, chduAu, Viet Nam ABSTRACT
This paper looks al the European Sovereign debt crisis. The results show that firstly crisis can happen in either low, middle or high pubic debt countries. Secondly, crisis can lake place in a country with high economic growth. Thirdly, macroeconomic problems can accumulate for a long time before causing a crisis. Fourthly, banking cisis increases public debt quickly afterwards. Fifthly, public debt crisis has significantly negative effects on economic growth The lessons drawn for Vietnam are following: firstly, Vietnam needs to reduce her current budget deficit level. Vietnam must be careful in increasing further the level of public debt because public debt crisis can happen at a relatively low level. Secondly, because macroeconomic problems can accumulate for a long time before causing a crisis, Vietnam needs to solve these macroeconomic problems. Thirdly. Vietnam has to solve the non-performing loan problem in the banking system and take measures to prevent ballooning of real estate and financial markets in the future. Fourthly, external debt of Vietnam has reached 41,1 % GDP, not so high but not low. Vietnam has to be cautious in accumulating more external debt.
Keywords: Public debt. Public debt crisis, Europe, Vietnam.
' TS, Tnrong Dai hoc Ma TP.HCM. Email: phuc.nv^^ou edu.vn
KINHTE
1. Dat vin de
Khiing hoang tai chinb ihl gidi nam 2007-2008 lam cho chinh phu nhieu nudc gia tang np cdng nhanh chdng. Khiing hoang lam cho nhilu Id chirc tai chinh va ngan hang sup dd. D I ti-anh mdt sy sup dd day chuyen tiong he thong tai chinh gay ra mdt cudc khung hoang kinh tl nghiem trpng budc cac chinh phu phai can thiep manh de giai ciiu cac Id chuc tai chinh. Viec giai ciiu cua chinh phu lam cho ng cdng tang len nhanh chdng. Ngoai ra, khung hoang lam cho nin kinh te suy thoai nghiem trpng budc cac chinb phu pbai tung ra cac gdi kich thich kinh tl. Chinh dilu nay ciing lam cho tham but ngan sach tang cao va ng cdng tang len. Bao cao cua IMF (2014) eho thiy la, thi gidi ndi cbung deu tham hyt ngan sach trong tit ca cac nam tir nam 2008 den 2013, khdng cd nam nao thang du ngan sach. Tham hyt ngan sach cao nhit la narn 2009 vdi miic 7,8% GDP, day la nSm ma nhieu nudc phai can thiep dl giai eiiu he thdn^ tai chinh va lung ra cac gdi kich thich kinh te. Cac nam tiep theo, tham hut ngan sach loan the gidi van duy tri d miic cao, mac dii cd giam dan. Cac nudc phat trien cd mirc tham hyt ngan sach cao hem cac nudc dang phat trien (bao gdm cac nudc mdi ndi va cac nudc thu nhap thap). Ly do la khung hoang tai chinh chii yeu xay ra d My va cac nudc phat trien. Chinb phu cac nudc nay phai tang chi lieu rat nhieu de giai ciiu he thdng tai chinh va kich thich nen kinh le.
Ve tinh binh ng cdng, bao cao ciia IMF (2014) cbo thay la ng cdng the gidi ndi chung lien tyc lang tir nam 2008 den nam 2012, tir muc 64,9% GDP len 80.6% GDP. Tang manh nhat la nam 2009. Ng cdng lang ehii ylu la d cac nudc phat tiien, con ng cdng d cac nudc dang phat trien tang rat it trong giai doan 2008-2013. Ng cdng (% tien GDP) tang tir 80% nam 2008 len 107.1% nam 2013 d cac nudc phat trien. Ng cdng deu tang cao d My, khu vyc ddng Euro va Nhat Ban. Ng cdng/GDP ciia cac nudc mdi ndi la 33.5% nam 2008 va 34.9% nam 2013. Ng cdng/GDP cua cac nudc tbu nhap thip la 41% nam 2008 va 42,6% nam 2013. Dieu dang Iuu y la cd nhung nudc ng cdng giam xudng chu khdng tang.
Trong 32 nudc phat trien co 4 nudc cd ng cdng
giam xudng. Trong 29 nudc mdi ndi cd 11 nudc cd ng cdng giam xudng. Trong 29 nudc cd thu nhap thap cd 18 nudc cd ng cdng giam xuong trong giai doan 2008-2013. Nhu vay cho thiy la, xu budng chung la ng cdng tang cao nhung ciing cd nhieu nudc thyc hien chinh sach tai khda than trpng. Ng cdng tangeao da gay ra khimg hoang ng cdng d mdt sd nudc, dae biet la khu vuc ddng tien chung chau Au.
Bai vilt nay mudn tim hilu nguyen nhan khimg hoang ng cdng cua cac nude khu vyc ddng tiln ehung chau Au va tir dd nit ra bai hpe cbo Viet Nam.
2. Khung hoang ng cdng trong lich su- kinh tl the gidi
Viec vay mugn cua cac chinh phu khdng pbai la dieu gi mdi me ma da ton tai lir lau trong lich su. Viec thu thul de trang trai cbi tieu ciia chinh phu thudng kbdng du, nhat la eae giai doan ciia chien tranh hay khung hoang. Vi vay, trong lich su, cae chinb phu thudng xuyen vay mugn cua dan chung va vay mugn tir ben ngoai la kha phd bien. Reinhart va Rogoff (2009, 201 lb) thdng ke cho thiy la tu nam 1800 din nay, d 70 qude gia ma s6 lieu cd Ihl thu tbap dugc, cd kboang 70 cudc khiing hoang np cdng trong nudc. Cd 250 cudc khimg hoang no nudc ngoai. Reinhart va Rogoff (201 la) ndi vl cac trudng hgp khung hoang kep, la khimg hoang ng nudc ngoai va khimg hoang ng cdng. Cimg muc ng cdng nhung neu ng nudc ngoai cao (bao gdm ca ng ciia khu vuc cdng va tu) thi kha nang khiing hoang no cdng se cao hon. Reinhart va Rogoff (2009) eho ring khung hoang ng la khiii^
hoang niem tin. Khi nha dau tu khdng cdn tin tudng vao kha nang tra ng thi hp se ddi mpt lai suat rat cao de cho vay no. Lai suat cao lam cho nghTa vu ng tang Ien nhanh chdng. Do do, ljch sir tin nhi8m tin dyng cua moi qude gia (credit rating history) ddng vai trd quan trpng trong viec xac djnh miic dp np cd the xay ra khung hoang.
Reinhart va Rogoff (2011 a, 2011 b) nban thiy la sau khi khung hoang ngan hang nd ra thi thudng keo tbeo khiing hoang ng cua chinh phu. Ngan hang ciing thudng nam giir lupng ldn ti-ai philu chinb phu. Khung hoang lam thu thul giam di dang kl vong kbi dd nhu ciu chi
TAP CHi KHOA HOC TRUONG DAI HOC MO TP.HCM - S6 5 (38) 2014 lieu tang len rat nhieu. do pbai giai ciiu nen
kinb te. Trong the ky 20, trung binh no cdng tang 86% ba nam sau khiing hoang ngan hang.
Trong nhieu trudng hgp, no tu nban chuyen thanh ng chinh phii do ehinh phii cuu trg.
Khung hoang kinh te, dii vdi bat cii ly do gi, lam cho ng cdng tang len nhanh chdng do ngudn thu thue bj sut giam tiong khi dd chi tieu ciia chinb phu tang nhieu do viec ciiu trg nen kinh le. Ngoai ra, Reinhart va Rogoff (2011b) nhan thay la cac chinh phu thudng che dau miic dp np that sy trudc khi khimg hoang np cdng nd ra. Chi khi khung hoang nd ra thi muc dp ng that sy mdi dugc phoi bay.
Nhieu khoang ng do chinh phii bao lanh, ng ciia cac td chiic do chinh phu bao tia (quasi-povemment institutions) da khdng dugc cdng bd day du.
Ve tac ddng cua np cdng len tang trudng, Reinhart va Rogoff (2011 a) lam thdng ke xem xet tuong quan giiia tang trudng GDP va ng cdng trong thdi gian rSt dai, giai doan 1790-2009. cho cac nudc phat trien. Kel qua cho tbay la khi ng cdng d dudi miic 30% GDP thi tang trudng dat tdc dp cao nhat, khi ng cdng d miic 30% den 60% GDP tbi tdc dp tang trudng thap hem, khi ng cdng d miic 60% den 90% GDP thi tdc dp tang trudng ciing tuong duang khi np cdng d miic 30% den 60%. Tdc dp tang trudng that sy giam manh khi mirc np cdng vupt qua 90% GDP. Tir kel qua dd, Reinhart va Rogoff (2011 a) cho rang nguang no cdng 90% la ngudng quan trpng de xac dinh la ng cdng tang len cd tac ddng lieu cyc len tang trudng. Mac dii phuang phap so sanh tucmg quan nay cd ban che la bd qua eae nhan td khac cd tac ddng len tang trudng nhung ket qua thdng ke trong hem 200 nam qua nhu vay ciing cho chiing ta niem tin la ng cdng tang cao tac ddng tieu cyc len tang trudng. Ket qua chay nid hinh kinh te lugng ciia Nguyen Van Phuc (2013) ciing cho thay la ng cdng cao cd tac ddng lieu cue len tang trudng kinh te.
3. Khung hoang ny cong chau Au 3.1. Khung hodng nff cdng cda Hy Lap
Theo cac ngudn tin dugc cdng bd rdng
rai thi khiing hoang ng cdng cua Hy Lap bat dau tir cudi nam 2009 khi cac td chuc xep han tin nhiem qude te nhu Fitch, Standard & Poor, Moody bat dau ha miic lin nhiem quoc gia ciia Hy Lap lam cho chi phi vay ng ciia chinh phu Hy Lap tren thj trudng vdn qude te tang vpt.
Ngay 22/10/2009, Id chirc xep hang tin nhiem Fitch ha miic tin nhiem qude gia cua Hy I^p tCr A xudng A-. Tilp sau do, ngay 08/12/2009, Filch lai tiep tuc ha miic tin nhiem quoc gia ciia Hy Lap tii A- xudng BBB+. Cac td chiic Standard & Poor va Moody ciing lam tuong ty. Ket qua la chi phi lai vay cua chmh phu Hy Lap tang vpt. Vao eudi thang 01/2010, lpi suat trai phieu (bond yield) cua chinh phu Hy Lap so vdi lgi suat tiai phieu chinb phu Due chenh lech qua 3%. Cd nghia la cac nha dau tu ddi hdi mdt lai suat cao han rat nhieu de cho chinh phii Hy Lap vay lien so vdi cho chinh phu Diic vay tiln. Tilp dd, ngay 09/04/2010, Fitch tilp tuc ha rauc tin nhiem quoc gia cua Hy Lap tir BBB+ xudng BBB- va Standard & Poor ba xep hang trai phieu chinh pbii Hy Lap xudng miic dudi cbuan (jnnk bond). Den cudi thang 04/2010, lgi suat trai phieu (bond yield) ciia chinh phii Hy Lap so vdi Igi suat trai philu chfnh phii Due chenh lech qua 10%. Ket qua la chinb phu Hy Lap phai chinh thiie cau vien eiiu trg qude te vao ngay 23/04/2010. Ngay 02/05/2010, chinh phii cac nudc khu vyc ddng Euro va IMF ddng y gdi ciru trg 110 ti Euro cho Hy Lap trong vdng ba nam. Den cudi thang 07/2011. eae td chiic xep hang ti'n nhiem qude te ha miic tinh nhiem ciia Hy Lap gan den miic thap nhat la vd ng. Chinh phu cac nude khu vuc ddng Euro va IMF da yeu can Hy Lap thyc thi nhieu bien phap khac khd, cat giam chi tieu de nhan dugc gdi ciiu trg. Tir dd den nay, chinh phu Hy Lap da thyc tbi nhilu chinb sach kinh te khac khd lam cho tdng ciu giam manh, kinh te rai vao suy thoai rlt sau va that nghiep dat miie rit cao. Ti le thil nghiep vao cudi nam 2012 la tien 24%. Cau hdi dat ra la nguyen nhan nao dan den khung hoang ng cdng ciia Hy Lap? Cd the ndi la cd hai nhdm nguyen nhan: nguyen nhan ben trong va nguyen nhan ben ngoai.
KINHTE
Nguyen nhan ben trong cua khung hoang
Bang 1. Cac chi s6 kinh tS chinh cua Hy Lap giai doan 1990-2013
Cbi so/giai doan 1990-
1995 1996-
2001 2002-
2007 2008-
2013 Tang truang GDP (%/nam)
Ti IS tiSt kiem npi flia (% cua GDP) Ti le d k tu (% cua GDP)
Chenh lech giiJa ti8t kiem noi dia va dau tu Tang truong xuSt khau hang hoa va dich vu (%/nam)
Lam phat (CPI, %/nam)
Can can tai khoan vSng lai (% cua GDP) Can can thucmg mai (% cua GDP) Tang tmong cong nghiep che tao (%/nam) Tin dung cho khu vuc tu nhan (% cua GDP) Lai suat thuc (%)
Ng xau khu vuc ngan hang (% tren tong du no) Ngf cua chinh phu trung ucmg (% cua GDP)
1.0 11.7 22.4 -10.6 3.1 15.0 n/a -10.6 n/a 30.0 10.8 n/a 110.3
3.6 11.5 23.2 -11.7 10.2 4.6 n/a -11.7 n/a 40.8 10.4 9.0 115.6
4.2 12.7 24.6 -12.0 4.3 3.3 -11.2 -12.0 -1.0 75.9 3.3 32.0 126.8
-4.4 8.7 17.2 -8.5 -2.0 2.3 -9.8 -8.5 -3.9 110.6 n/a 15.0 132.0 Ngudn: World Development Indicators 2014, WorldBank
NguySn nhan din den khiing hoang da dugc ticb ty trong mpt thdi gian dai. Ndi mdt each ngan gpn la Hy Lap theo duoi mdt md hinh lang trudng khdng ben vimg, dua qua nhieu vao viec vay ng. Bang 1 trinh bay cae chi sd kinh te chu yeu cua Hy Lap giai doan lir 1990 den nay. Sd lieu cbo thay la diu nhiing nam 1990, Hy Lap gap khd khan vl kmh tl, tang trudng dat rat thap, trung binh chi LO%/nam cho giai doan 1990-1995. Tir nam 1997 trd di. Hy Lap bit diu tang trudng nhanh. dat tren 3%/nam. Cho din nam 2007, tang tiudng cua Hy Lap cd ve la rit tot. Tang hirdng GDP binh quan dat 3,6%/nam giai doan 1996-2001 va 4,2%/nam giai doan 2002- 2007. Din nam 2007. GDP bmh quan diu ngudi cua Hy Lap la 27361 USD, la nude dugc xep vao hang cd thu nhap cao.
Mac dii tang trudng nhanh giai doan 1997-2007 nhung Hy Lap cd nhiing diu hieu cho tbay la nen tang kinh tl vT md khdng viing chic. Ti le dau lu cao nhung tilt kiem ndi dja lai rat thip. Chenh lech giiia tilt kiem ndi dia va diu tu ludn am tren 10% GDP tiong sudt giai doan 1990-2007. Dilu nay cd nghTa la Hy
Lap tang trudng nhanh khdng phai bing chinh ndi lyc cua minh ma bang ngudn vdn ben ngoai rat Idn. Do vay, ng cdng va ng nudc ngoai ngay cang tang cao. Nen kinh te Hy Lap tang trudng nhanh chu yeu dya vao khu vyc djeh vy chii khdng phai khu vyc san xuat edng nghiep. Vao nam 2007, djch vu chilm 76%
GDP. Cdng ngbiep che tao tSng tradng am 1 % giai doan 2002-2007. Xuit khiu hang bda va dich vy chi lang trudng 4,3%/nam trong giai doan 2002-2007. Nang lyc canh ti-anh cua Hy Lap ylu kem lam cho can can thuong mai va can can lai khoan vang lai ludn tham hyt tren 10% GDP. Tin dung cbo khu vyc tu nhan dugc md rdng rat nhanh, kit qua la ng xiu tang rit cao ngay ca trade kbi khung hoang ng cdng xay ra. Ng cdng liSn tuc tang cao va duy tri d mirc rit cao trade khi khiing hoang nd ra nam 2009. Nhu vay, mac du dat dugc tdc dp tang tradng tucmg ddi tdt nhimg nam trade khiing hoang nhung Hy Lap da tich tu cac ylu td dan den khimg hoang sau nay. Cae yeu Id ben trong nay kit hgp vdi cac yeu td ben ngom da din din cudc khimg hoang vd cimg nghiem tipng cho Hy Lap.
TAP CHf KHOA HOC TRUONG DAI HOC MO TP.HCM - S5 5 (38) 2014
Nguyin nhdn bin ngodi cda khung hodng
Viee tham gia ddng tien chung chau Au (Euro) da cd tac ddng to ldn den Hy Lap. Kbi ddng Euro dugc hinh thanh vao nam 1999. lai suat d cac nudc thanh vien tien gan vdi nhau va cd xu hudng giam manh. Dieu nay cd ngbia la lai suat cao d mpt sd nudc chau Au trudc day gid dupc hudng lai suat thap gan bang vdi iai suat cua Diic va Phap (Smaghi, 2011). Ly do la cac nha dau lu tin tudng vao cac quy dinh t^i khda chat che ma Hiep udc Tang trudng va On dinh (Growth and Stability Pact) cua khu vyc ddng Euro da quy dinh cbo mdi nudc thanh vien tham hut ngSn sach khdng qua 3% GDP va no cdng khdng qua 60% GDP (Lane, 2012). Lai suat thap kich thich vay mugn nhieu, tang dau tu va lieu dimg. Cac ngan hang va td chirc tai chinb trong nudc gid dugc tiep can thi trudng tin dyng rdng Idn ciia chau Au. Ngoai ra, ti le dy trir bat budc ciia cac ngan hang ciing giam di nhieu do ap dung tieu chuan chung cua khu vuc Euro. Cac chinh phii phat hanh trai phieu bang ddng Euro, chii khdng pbai la ddng ndi le nhu trudc day, nen viec buy ddng vdn trd nen de dang hon tren loan thi tradng khu vyc Euro. Ddi vdi Hy Lap.
nhirng nam 1990 chiu lam phat bai eon sd va Iai suit cao tuong ung. Khi gia nhap ddng Euro, Hy Lap da hudng Igi Idn tir vi^e lai suat ba xudng rat thap (Nelson et al., 2012). Ket qua la tin dyng tang rat nhanh va no cdng ciing tang len nhanh (xem Bang 1).
Theo thoa thuan cua Hiep udc Maastricht ve thanh lap ddng tien chung Euro, cac nudc thanh vien phai giii miic tham hut ngan sach eua minh d miic dudi 3% GDP. Tuy nhien, trong thdi gian dai, Hy Lap bang nhieu tbii thuat khac nhau da che giau miic dp ng cdng tiiat sy cua minh. Vao 20/10/2009, khi chinh phii mdi dugc biu ciia Hy Lap cdng bd la tham hyt ngan saeh nam 2009 cua Hy Lap khdng phai la 3.6% nhu chinh phu cu cdng bd ma la 12.8%. sau dd nang len 13,6% thi cudc khung hoang niem tin vao ng cdng cua Hy Lap that sy bit diu (Feartherstone, 2()11). That sy thi tham hyt ngan sach cua Hy Lap cao hom miic 3% GDP rit nhilu nhiing nam trade khung hoang. Theo IMF (2014) thi tham hyt
ngan sach tren GDP cua Hy Lap nam 2006 la 6^0%, nam 2007 la 6,8%, nam 2008 la 9.9%.
Chinb sy che giau nay lam cho khung hoang niem tin vao ng ciia chinh phii Hy Lap cang trd nen tram trpng.
Khung hoang lai chinh the gidi nam 2007-2008 tac ddng lieu cyc den Hy Lap dan den khimg hoang. Do sy lien thdng giira cac td chuc tai chinh cua My va chau Au nen khi My gap khung hoang thi cac td chiic tai chinh chau Au bi anh hudng nang ne. Khi he thdng tai chinh gap khiing hoang thi lin dung giam manh, dan den dau tu va tieu dung giam manh.
Kel qua la cac nen kinh te chau Au rai vao suy thoai, that nghiep tang cao. Khi kinh te suy thom thi nguon thu thue cua cac chinh phii bi anb hudng nghiem trpng trong khi dd cac chinh phu phai tang chi tieu rat nhieu de giai ciiu he thdng tai chinh xa nen kinh te. He qua la tham hut ngan sach tang rat cao va np cdng tang nhanh. Ddi vdi Hy Lap, thi tradng tai chinb dan nhan ra cac yeu kem eua nen kmh le Hy Lap va ddi hoi mdt lai suat cao ban ddi vdi ng ciia Hy Lap phat banh de bii lai cac nii ro tang len. Lgi suat trai phieu chinb phu Hy Lap tang rat cao so vdi lgi suat trai phieu chinh phii Diic. Theo Alogoskoufis (2012), chenh lech lgi suat trai phieu chinh phu Hy so vdi lgi suat trai phieu chinh phu Diic la 0,3% vao cuoi 2007 tang len 2% vao cudi nam 2008 sau khi ngan hang dau tu Lehman Brothers sup dd va chenh lech tren 10% khi khiing hoang nd ra.
\'i da tham gia ddng tien chung Euro nen Hy Lap khdng cdn chfnh sach tien te eua rieng minh, khdng the phat hanh ng chinh phu thdng qua viec phat hanh them tien cua ngan hang trung uang cua chinh minh nen khi thj tradng tai chinh mat niem tin vao ng cua ehinh phu Hy Lap thi hp gap khimg hoang. Thye le la tii tiiang 04/2010 den diu nam 2014, Hy Lap bj loai khdi thi tradng vdn qude te. Ngoai ra, viec tham gia ddng tien chung Euro Iam cho Hy Lap khdng cdn cd the sir dung chinh sach li gia hdi doai de khuyen khich xuat khau nham kich thich trd lai tang trudng. Dieu nay lam cho khimg hoang tiam trpng ban binh thudng.
Hau qua cua khimg hoang ng cdng la Hy Lap roi vao suy thoai kinh ll nghiem trpng (trong khi phin idn cac nude phat triln da din
KINHTf
bdi phye). Tang tradng GDP binh quan am 4.4% trong giai doan 2008-2013. Din nam 2013, Hy Lap vin cdn tang tradng am 3,9%.
Ti le thit nghiep vao cudi nam 2013 da len den 24,2%. Ng cdng vao eudi nam 2013 da len den 174% GDP. Nhan djnh cbung la Hy Lap cdn phai mit thdi gian kha dai de giai quylt khiing hoang mac du cac nd lyc da dan cai thien duoc tinh hinli. Ngay 10/04/2014, Hy Lap da phat hanh thanh cdng 3 ti Euro tren thj tradng vdn qude te sau nhieu nam khung hoang.
3.2. Khung hodng nff cdng & cdc nu&c chdu Au khdc
Khimg hoang ciia Hy Lap cd xu budng lan sang cac nudc chau Au khac. Cac nha dau tu bat diu lo sg vl kha nang tra np cua mdt sd nudc chau Au nen ddi hdi Iai suat tiai phieu chinh phu phai cao ban nhieu mdi mua. Kieh ban khiing hoang Hy Lap da lap lai d mdt sd nudc khu vyc ddng Euro ma tieu bieu nhal la Ireland va Bd Dao Nha. Vao thang 12/2010, chinh phu cac nudc chau Au va IMF cam ket gdi ciru trg 67,5 ti Euro cho heland va thang 05/2011, la gdi eim trg 78 ti Euro cho Bo Dao Nha. Tay Ban Nha va Y cung chiing kien Igi suat tiai phieu chinb phii ciia hp lang vgt cho thiy la nha dau lu cam nhan nii ro tang len khi
mua np cua hai nudc nay. Su lan rdng ciia khiing hoang de dpa sy dn dinh cua ddng Euro va loan bd cac nen kinh te khu vye Euro.
Khung hoang cua Ireland
Tinh hinh ciia Ireland rat khae Hy Lap trade khi khung hoang xay ra. Vao nam 2007, rnijc dp ng cdng cua Ireland rat thap (tbeo sd tieu World Bank la 28,7% GDP). Sd lieu bang 2 cbo thiy la Ireland dat dugc tdc dp tang trudng kinh tl rit cao trong nhieu nam, dat trung binh 6,7%/nam giai doan 1990-2005, 5,5% nam 2006 va 5.0% nam 2007. Din nam 2007, GDP binh quan dau ngudi ciia Ireland dat 59.000 (USD gia hien hanh) la kha cao so vdi nhieu nudc phat trien. Ti le that nghiep thip. Cd Ihl ndi sy phat trien nhanh ciia Ireland trade khung hoang dupe xem la mdt hien tupng ky dieu tiong cac nudc phat trien (Smaghi, 2011). Cac cbi sd kinh te vT md deu tdt. Ti le tiet kiem ndi dia rat cao. Ti le dau tu ludn thap ban ti le tiet kiem ndi dia. Xuat khau tang trudng tdt va ti le xuat khau/GDP kha cao, khoang 80% vao nam 2007. Can can thuang mai thang du rat Idn. Lam phat d miic thip, trung binh 2,9%/nam trong giai doan 1990-2005 va 3,9% nam 2006, 4,9% nam 2007. Ng cdng d muc rat thap.
Bang 2. Cac chi so kinh te chinh ciia Ireland
Chi so/nam
1990-
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 TSng tmong GDP (%/nam)
Ti le thit nghiep (%) Ti 1^ tidt ki^m noi dja (% cua GDP) Ti 1? diu tu (% ciia GDP) Lam phat (CPI, %/nam) TSng trucmg xuat khau hang hoa va dich vy (%/nam)
Can can Auung mai (% cua GDP) Can can tai khoan vang lai (% ciia GDP) Ng cua chinh phu trung ucmg (% cua GDP)
Tin dung noi dja cho khu vuc tu (% cua GDP)
N9 kho doi/tong dir ng (%) H? so von chu so h&u/tong tai san ngan hang (%)
6.7 32.8 21.0 2.9 11.8
5.5 4.4 37.8 28.2 3.9 5.0 9.6 -3.5 29.2 181.2 0.5
5.0 4.6 35.1 26.1 4.9 8.4 9.0 -5.3 28.7 199.2 0.6
-2.2 6.0 30.8 21.8 4.1 -1.1 9.0 -5.8 48.6 220.0 1.9
-6.4 12.0 31.2 15.2 -4.5 -3.8 16.0 -2.2 69.3 232.1 9.8
-1.1 13.9 30.5 11.8 -0.9 6.4 18.6 I.l 87.3 212.2 12.5
2.2 14.6 32.8 11.2 2.6 5.4 21.6 1.3 102.9 199.7 16.1
0 2 14.7 35.1 10.9 1.7 1.6 24.2 4.4 126.9 185.7 24.6
Nguon: IVorldDevelopment Indicators 2014. WorldBank
TAP CHi KHOA HOC TRUONG DAI HOC MO TP.HCM - SO 5 (38) 2014
Rui ro ldn nhat ddi vdi Ireland nam d khu vyc ngan bang. Tin dung da tang tradng qua nhanh trong giai doan tang tmdng nhanh cua nen kmh te. Tin dung ndi dja cho khu vyc tir nhan (% cua GDP) chi la 44,2% nam 1994, tang Ien 104,7% nam 2000 va len miic rit cao 199,2% nam 2007. Cd mdt lugng ldn tin dyng tang Ien dugc do vao thi tradng nha dit va gay ra bong bdng bat ddng san d Ireland, gia nha dat da lang rat cao trong nhieu nam. lang khoang 100% ti-ong giai doan 1999-2007 (Smaghi, 2011). Trong khi do, he sd vdn chu sd biru/tdng tai san ngan hang ludn d miic thap dudi 8%o (xem Bang 2). Hau qua la khi khiing hoang tai chinh thi gidi nd ra nam 2007 da lac ddng rat manh len Ireland. Gia nha dit sut giam manh lam cho cac ngan hang Ireland thiet hai nang ne, udc tinh len din 100 ti Euro.
Bang 2 cho thiy la ng xau tiong he thdng ngan hang tang vpt tCr nam 2009. Dimg trade nguy co he thdng ngan hang syp dd, chinh phu Ireland budc phai ciiu trg.
Kinh te Ireland rai vao suy thoai tir nam 2008. Kinh te suy thoai lam ngudn thu thue suy giam tiong khi dd nbu cau cbi tieu chinh phu tang vpt do phai giai eiiu he thdng ngan hang.
Tham hut ngan sach (%)/GDP) cua Ireland tang len rit cao vdi nam 2008 la 7,3%. nam 2009 la 13,8%, nam 2010 la 30.5%. Cac td chirc xip hang tin nhiem gudc gia ddng loat ha tin nhiem cua Ireland nhieu bac. Vi Ireland da tham gia ddng tien chung chau Au Euro nen chinh phu tai trp tham hyt ngan sach bang phat hanh trai phieu chinh phu bang Euro va ban ra ben ngoai. Trong tinh hinh tdi te nhu vay, Ipi suat trai phieu chinb phii Ireland tang vpt, den luc khdng chiu dung dupe nira thi Ireland phai cau ciru Lien minh chau Au va IMF. Ngay 29/11/2010, Lien mmh chau Au va IMF ddng y gdi cuu trg 67,5 ti Euro cho Ireland. Vdi gdi ciiu trg nay cung vdi cac cai each ciia chinh phil, nen kinh te b^eland sau dd dan hoi phye.
Nen kinh te thoat khdi suy thoai tir cudi nam 2011. Xuat khau tang tradng kha. Vao thang 07/2012. Ireland da phat hanh tiianh cdng 5 ti Euro trai phieu chinh phu vdi lai suit 5,9%/nam. Den nay. Lien minh chau Au va IMF khdng can them gdi ciiu trg nao nira ddi vdi Ireland..
Khiing hoang ciia Bo Dao Nha
D^c diem ciia kinh te Bd Dao Nha gidng Hy Lap nhieu hon la Ireland. Trade nam 2008.
kinh le Bd Dao Nha dat tdc dp tang trudng d miic trang binh, 2,4%/nam cho giai doan 1990-2005 va 1.4% nam 2006, 2.4% nam 2007. Lam phat d miic vira phai. dudi 5%. Tuy nhien, ti le that ngbiep tuang ddi eao, khoang 8% nam 2007. Bd Dao Nha cd cae diem yeu ve ea cau gidng Hy Lap nhu ti le lilt kiem thap han nhieu so vdi ti le dau tu cho tbay phy tbudc nhieu vao vdn ben ngoai; tham hyt thuang mai va tai khoan vang lai ldn the hien nang lyc canh tianh yeu cua nen kinb te, xuat khau tang trudng thap. Tin dung ndi dja cho khu vuc tu nhan ciing d miic rat cao, dat 162,5% nam 2007 the hien rui ro cao ciia he thdng ngan hang. So vdi Hy Lap thi ng cdng cua Bd Dao Nha thap hem nhieu (theo sd lieu World Bank la 67.5% GDP nam 2007).
Vdi tac ddng tieu cue ciia khiing hoang tai chinh the gidi, kinh te Bd Dao Nha suy thoai manh vao nam 2009 va cac nam tiep theo. Kinh te suy thoai Iam ngudn thu thue suy giam tiong khi dd nhu eau chi tieu chinb phu lang vpt. Tham hut ngan sach (%/GDP) cua Bd Dao Nha tang len rat eao vdi nam 2009 la 10,2%, nam 2010 la 9.9%. nam 2011. Cae td cbiic xep hang tin nhiem qude gia lien tyc ha lin nhiem cua Bd Dao Nha. Vi Bd Dao Nha da tham gia ddng tien ehung chau Au Euro nen chinb phil tai tip tham hyt ngan sach bang phat hanh trai phieu ehinh phii bang Euro va ban ra ben ngoai. Trong tinh hinh tdi te nhu vay, lgi suat tiai phieu chinh phu Bd Dao Nha lang vpt (dat dinh diem 17,3%/nam vao thang 01/2012). den luc khdng ehiu dyng dugc niia thi Bd Dao Nha phai cau ciiu Lien minh chau Au va IMF. Vao thang 05/2011, Lien minh chau Au va IMF dong y gdi ciiu trg 78 ti Euro cbo Bd Dao Nha. Den nay. Lien minh chau Au va IMF kbdng can them gdi ciiu trg nao nira ddi vdi Bd Dao Nha. Tuy nhien, kinh tl Bd Dao Nha den nay van edn suy thoai, tang tradng GDP am 3.2% nam 2012 va am 1,4%
nam 2013. Den cudi nam 2012, ti le thip nghiep len den 15,6%, Ti Ie ng cdng len 128,8% vao cudi nam 2013. Nhan dinh cbung la Bd Dao Nha cdn phai mit thdi gian kba dai de giai quyet khung hoang mae dii cac nd lyc da dan cai thien dugc tinh hinh.
Bang 3.
Chi so/aam Tang trudng GDP (%/nam) Tl le that nghiep (%) Ti le ti^t kiem noi dja (% cua GDP) T i l e a a u t u ( % cila GDP) L?m phat (CPI, %/nam) Tang tmong xuat tdiau hang hoa va dich vu (%/nam)
Can can thirong mgi (% ciia GDP) Can can tai khoan vang lai (% cua GDP)
No ciia chinh phu trung ucmg (%
cua GDP)
Tin dung noi dia cho khu vuc tu (% cua GDP)
Ng kho doi/tong du no (%)
Cac chi so
1990- 2005 2.4 17.1 25.4 4.9 4.7 -8.3
kinh te chinh ciia Bo f)ao Nha
2006 1.4 7.7 14.4 23.1 2.7 11.6 -8.7 -10.7 69.4 151.9
2007 2.4 8 14.8 22.8 2.8 7.5 -8.0 -10.1 67.5 162.5 2.8
2008 0.0 7.6 13 1 23.2
2.6 -0.1 -10.1 -12.7 78.9 173.7 3.6
2009 -2.9 9.5 12.8 20.2 -0.8 -10.9 -7.4 -11.0 91.5 186.8 4.8
2010 1.9 10.8 12.5 20.2 1.4 10.2 -7,7 -10.6 95.2 190.7 5.2
2011 -1.3 12.7 14.1 18.4 3.7 6.9 -4.4 -7.1 92.8 192.1 7.5
2012 -3.2 15.6 16.0 16.7 2.8 3.2 -0.6 -2,1 126.2 184.3 9.8 Ngudn: World Development Indicators 2014, WorldBank
3.3. Cdc chinh sdch gidi cuu cua Lien minh chdu Au
Sy khiing hoang cd nguy ca lan rpng ra cac nudc khae trong Lien minh chau Au. Tay Ban Nha la nen kinh te ldn ciia chau Au cd nguy eo hi anh hudng nghiem tipng. Mirc np cdng ciia Tay Ban Nha rat thip vao nam 2007 (36,3% GDP). Tuy nhien, ciing gidng nhu Ireland, Tay Ban Nha ciing da trai qua eon bung nd nha dat. Cac ngan hang Tay Ban Nha da cho vay rat nhieu trong ITnh vyc nha dit.
Can khiing hoang tai chinh toan ciu tac ddng den he thdng ngan hang Tay Ban Nha rit manh. Gia nha dat sut giam Iam cho be thdng ngan hang chiu cac tdn thit ldn. Chinh phu phai giai eiiu eae ngan bang lam cho np cdng tang vpt. Dieu nay lam bit an cac nha diu tu.
Do do, lgi suat trai philu chinb phii Tay Ban Nha tang cao tren thi tiudng vdn qude le. Mdt nudc Idn khac ciia ehau Au cung bj anh hudng la Y. Ng cdng ciia Y dat muc rit cao ngay ea tiirdc khung hoang, d mirc 103,3% GDP nam 2007. Miie ng cdng cao lam cho cae nha diu tu lo sg. Ngoai ra nhimg nude nhd ban cua chau Au ciing hi anh hudng nang nhu Iceland, Sip. Hungary, Latvia. Romania.
Diing trade nguy co cudc khiing hoang lan rdng. Lien minh chau Au (EU) da thyc hien cac chinh saeh giai ciiu. Vao ngay
09/05/2010, chinh phu 27 nudc EU da ddng y thanh lap Quj^ dn dinb tai chinh chau Au (European Financial Stability Facility - EFSF). Nang lyc cho vay cua Quy nay dat den 440 ti Euro. Trai phieu do Quy phat hanh dugc bao lanh bdi chinli phu cac nudc EU. Chirc nang eiia Quy la hd trg tai chinh eho nhung nudc thanh \ien EU gap khd klian. Den ngay 26/10/2011, Lien minh chau Au da tang cam kel cho quy md Quy len 1000 ti Euro. Cho din nay Quy nay da ho trg Hy Lap 144,6 ti Euro, Ireland 18,4 ti Euro, Bo Dao Nha 26 ti Euro.
Ngoai ra. Uy ban chau Au (European Commission) ciing thanh lap cdng cu dn dinh tai chinh chdu Au (European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism - EFSM) vdi nang lyc hd trg 60 ti Euro dua tren sy dam bao tir ngan sach cua Lien minh chau Au. Cbo den nay cdno cy nay da ho trg cho Ireland 22.5 ti Euro, Bd Dao Nha 26 ti Euro. Ngoai cac bien phap tren. ehinh phii cac nudc EU cung da ddng y xda ng mdt phan (\ i du nhu 50% cbo Hy Lap) cho cac nudc khiing hoang. Ngan hang Trung uong chau Au (ECB) cung da hanh ddng manh me de ngan ehan khung hoang. ECB da tang cudng mua trai philu chinh phil \a tham chi la cac cdng cu np ciia khu vyc tu nhan. ECB da Hen tuc cat giam iai suat xudng mirc thap ky luc. Cho den cudi nam 2013, lai suit cua ECB chi cdn 0,25%/nam.
TAP CHI KHOA HOC TRUONG OAI HOC MOTP.HCM -SO 5 (38) 2014 ECB da cho mdt sd lupng ldn ngan hang \a\
lien de uiai qu\et khd khan \e thanh khoan. Su ket hgp giira cac bien phap tai khda va chinh sach tien te cua ECB da din cd kit qua. Den cudi nam 2013, dau nam 2014 tinh hinh da dugc cai thien dang ke. Mdt sd nudc gap khiing hoang da khdng can su bd trg tir EL niia. Ngoai ra, de ngan ehan cho cac cudc khung hoang tuong Iai. EU da tien hanh hang loat cac cai each trong he thdng tai ehinh. he thdng tai khda va tai co cau nin kinli tl. Tuy nhien. nhan dinh chung la EU vin edn nhilu khd khan va phai mat nhieu nam nua mdi trd lai tdc dp tang trudng kinh tl binh thudng.
3.4. Nhgn xet rut ra
Khung hoang ng cdng chau Au cbo thiy la: thii nhat, khiing hoang cd the xay ra d nude cd mue ng cdng rit thap (nhu Ireland), muc trung binb (Bd Dao Nha), bay miic cao (Hy Lap); thii hai, khiing hoang ng cdng cd the xay ra d nudc ma trudc dd cd tdc dp tang trudng kinh te cao (nhu Ireland, Hy Lap); thir ba, cac
bat dn kinh te vT md cd the tich tu trong thdi gian dai trudc khi gay ra khung hoang (nbu Hy Lap, Bd Dao Nha); thir tu. khiing hoang ngan hang gay tdn kem rat nhieu cho chinb phu, lam ng cdng tang vpt sau do (nhu Ireland); thii nam, khung hoang ng cdng tac ddng nghiem trpng den tang tradng. Tat ca cac nudc bj khung hoang deu rai vao suy thoai trong tbdi gian dai va that nghiep tang len rat cao,
4. Nff cong cua Viet Nam
Sd lieu Bang 4 cho thay tinh hinh np cdng eiia Viet Nam so vdi cac nude trong khu vyc. Thii nhat, ng cdng cua Viet Nam da tang rat nhanh trong nhung nam qua, tu mirc 38,4%
GDP nam 2006 len 55% GDP vao cudi nam 2013. Thu hai, nam 2006 ng cdng cua Viet Nam thap hem ciia Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thai Lan thi den nam 2013 ng cdng eiia Viet Nam da cao ban tat ca cac nudc tren tru Malaysia. Den nam 2013, ng cdng ciia Viet Nam chi thap ban Malaysia va Lao.
Bang 4. Tinh hinh ng cdng Viet Nam so vdi cac nu'dc trong khu vyc (% so vdi GDP) Nudc/nam
Cambodia China Indonesia Lao P.D.R.
Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam
2006 32.7 16.2 39.0 71.9 41.5 51.6 42.0 38.4
2007 30.6 19.6 35.1 64.2 41.2 44.6 38.3 40.9
2008 27.5 17.0 33.2 60.3 41.2 44.2 37.3 39.4
2009 28.9 17.7 28.6 63.2 52.8 44.3 45.2 46.9
2010 29.1 33.5 26.1 62.1 53.5 43.5 42.6 51.6
2011 28.5 28.7 24.4 55.9 54.3 41.4 42.1 47.6
2012 28.8 26.1 24.0 61.5 56.0 40.6 45.4 50.0
2013 28.1 22.4 26.1 62.0 58.2 38.3 45.3 55.0 Ngudn. IMF (2014)
Ghi chii: Ng cong Id no tdng.
Mdt di^u dang chii y khac la muc dp tham hyt ngan sach cua Viet Nam trong nhirng nam gin day tang cao. Trong 2 nam 2012 va 2013, tham hyt ngan sach cua Viet Nam la cao nhat cac nudc trong khu vyc. Neu xu hudng nay van tiep tuc thi dieu that sy khdng lot cho ng cdng. Ngoai ra, theo Bd Tai chinh (2013).
trong tdng ng cua chinh phu Viet Nam tbi no nudc ngoai ehiem khoang 60%, ng trong nudc chiem khoang 40%. Hien tai ng nirdc ngoai cua Viet Nam la 41,1% GDP vao cudi nam 2012. Ng nudc ngoai cao trong tdng ng edng la mdt rili ro Idn nhu kinh nghiem cac nudc khung hoang cho thiy.
KINHT6
Bang 5.
Nuac/nam Cambodia China Indonesia Lao P.D.R.
Malaysia Philippines Thailand
Tinh hinh tham hut ngSn sach Viet Nam
Ngudn: IMF (2014) 2006
-0.2 -0.7 0.2 -3.2 -2.7 0.0 2.2 0.3
2007 -0.7 0.9 -1.0 -2.4 -2.7 -0.3 0.2 -2.0
(% so vffi 2008
0.3 -0.7 0.0 -2.6 -3.6 0.0 0.1 -0.5
GDP) 2009 -4.2 -3.1 -1.8 -5.3 -6.7 -2.6 -3.2 -6.0
so vffi cac nuo'c trong khu
2010 -2.8 -1.5 -1.2 -4.7 -4.7 -2.4 -0.8 -2.8
2011 -4.1 -1.3 -0.6 -3.0 -3.8 -0.4 -0.6 - l . I
2012 -3.8 -2.2 -1.7 -1.4 -3.6 -0.7 -1.8 -4.8
virc
2013 -3.0 -1.9 -2.1 -4.7 -4.6 -O.I -0.2 -5.7
Tir khimg hoang ng cdng chau Au cd the nit ra cac bai hpe cho Viet Nam nhu sau. Thii nhit, nhirng bit dn din din khung hoang ng cdng cd Ihl tich tu tiong mdt thdi gian dai nhu tmdng hop ciia Hy Lap, Bd Dao Nha. Khung hoang ng cdng cd the xay ra d nudc ma trade do cd tdc dp tang tmdng kinh te cao nhu Ireland. Do dd, khdng dupc ehu quan, can phai luu y giai quyet cac van de ve dai ban ed the din din khimg hoang ng cdng. Bang 6 trinb bay cac ehi sd kinh le chinh cua Viet Nam.
Dilm manh cua kinh te Viet Nam la ed tdc dp tang trudng GDP tuang ddi eao, tdc dp tang trudng xuil khau la cao, tdc dp tang tiirdng
cdng ngbiep chl lao tuong ddi kba. Tuy nhien, dilm yeu kinh tl Viet Nam la tilt kiem ndi dja khdng du dk diu tu, muc dd tham hut la kha ldn, cho thiy la Viet Nam dang lich ty ng nudc ngoai kha rJianb, Viet Nam lien tiac tham hyt can can thuang mai va can can tai khoan vang lai ldn, eho thiy kha nang canh tianh cua nin kinh tl cdn ylu. Day la nhung diem ylu ca ban gidng nbu Hy Lap. Ngoai ra, kinb le Vi?t Nam cd nhung nam lam phat rat cao, tao ra bat dn kinh tl vT md. Cac diem ylu nay cimg vdi viec ng cdng va ng nudc ngoai dang tang nhanh se tao ra rui ro cbo nen kinb te nen can dac biet luu y.
Bang 6. Ckc chi so kinh te chinh ciia Viet Nam Chi so/nam
TSng tnrong GDP (%/nam) Ti If tilt kiem npi dia (% ciia GDP) Tl le dau tu (% cua GDP) Chenh lech giira tiet kiem va dau tu (% cua GDP)
L?m phdt (CPI.
%/nam)
Tang tivong xuat khau hang hoa va djch vu (%/nam)
1991- 2004 7.3 19.6 26.8
-7.1
19.7 2005
7.5 30.4 33.8
-3.3 8.3
17.8 2006
7.0 31.7 34.5
-2.9 7.4
11.2 2007
7.1 26.0 39.6
-13.6 8.3
12.5 2008
5.7 22.8 36.5
-13.6 23.1
13.7 2009
5.4 26.8 37.2
-10.4 7.1
-5.1 2010
6.4 27.5 35.7
-82 8.9
8.4 2011
6.2 25.6 29.8
-4.1 18.7
10.8 2012
5.2 30.7 27.2
3.5 9.1
15.7 201
5 30 26
4 6
TAP CHi KHOA HQC TRUONG DAI HOC MO TP.HCM-S(5 5 (38) 2014
Chi so/nam
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Tang tmdng cdng
nghiep che tao (%/nam) Can can thuang mai (%
cua GDP) Can can tai khoan vSng lai (% cua GDP) Tin dung npi dia (% cua GDP)
Ng nudc ngoai (% ciia ONI)
11.0 12.9 13.4 12.4 9.8 2.8 8.4 11.0 5.8 -7.1 -3.3 -2.9 -13.6 -13.6 -10.4 -8.2 -4.1 3.5 -1.0 -0.2 -9.0 -10.9 -6.2 -3.7 0.2 5.8 65.4 69.2 88.2 86.9 113 125 110 105 36.7 31.3 33.8 30.1 35.7 44.0 45.1 44.1 Nguon: World Development Indicators 2014. World Bank
Bai hoc thii hai cho thay la khung hoang cd the xay ra d nudc cd muc ng cdng rit thap.
Khiing hoang ngan bang va he thdng tai chinb gay tdn kem rat nhieu cho chinh phii, Iam ng edng tang vpt sau do. Chinh phii Viet Nam da dat ra muc gidi ban ng cdng an toan la 65%
GDP. Tuy nhien, miic nay chi an loan trong dieu kien binh thudng. Neu ed mdt cupe khiing hoang ngan hang, khiing hoang he thdng tai chinh hay khimg hoang thi tradng bat ddng san thi np cdng se tang rat nhanh nhu kinb nghiem ciia Ireland hay cua My da cho thay.
He thdng ngan hang Viet Nam nhirng nam qua cd ng xau tang vpt va tdn tai nhieu yeu kem.
Thi trudng bat dpng san da syt giam nhieu nam sau mdt giai doan tang trudng ndng, Sd lieu Bang 6 cung cho thay la quy md tin dung trong nen kinh te da tang vpt len gan gap ddi trong giai doan 2005-2010. Nhu vay miic ng cdng hien nay (55% GDP) hay ngudng 6 5 % GDP deu khdng phai la mirc an loan.
Bai hpe thir ba nit ra la ehinh phu nen vay ng nudc ngoai d miic vira phai. Thuc chat cua khiing hoang Hy Lap, Bd Dao Nha, Ireland la ehinh phii cac nudc nay phat hanh ng chil yeu ban cbo cac nha dau tu ben ngoai (do tham gia ddng Euro nen hp khdng edn phat banh ng bang ddng ndi le). Khi tinh hinh trd nen khdng thuan lgi thi cac nha dau tu ben ngoai phan ling rat nhanh chdng bang ddi bdi mdt lai suat cao ban nhieu cbo ng cua nudc dd. Tinh hinh cang trd nen nghiem trpng khi cac ng cu den han va ehinh phii phai phat hanh ng mdi de tra ng eu. Trong giai doan khung
hoang cac ehinh phu thudng khd ban dugc ng tren thi tiudng vdn qude t l nhu trudng hgp Hy Lap, Bd Dao Nha, Ireland cho thay. Kbi do cbi cdn each la cac chinh phu cau vien cuu trg qude te hoac tuyen bd vd ng (nhu trudng hgp Argentina).
5. Ket luan va kien nghi
Nghien ciiu kinh nghiem cac nudc cho thay la viec vay mugn ctia cac chinh phii khdng phai la dieu gi mdi me ma da tdn tai tii Iau trong Hch sii. Trong lich su, vi nhieu ly do khae nhau, eae chinh phu thudng xuyen vay mupn qua muc. Tu nam 1800 den nay, d 70 qude gia ma sd lieu cd the thu thap dugc, cd khoang 70 cudc khung hoang ng edng trong nudc. Cd 250 cupc khiing hoang np nudc ngoai, cd cac tmdng hgp khung hoang kep, la khiing hoang ng nudc ngoai va khiing hoang ng cdng. Khung hoang tai chinh lam cho no cdng tang rat nhanh sau khimg hoang. Thdng ke ban 200 nam d cac nudc phat trien cho tbay la tang tradng giam manh khi np cdng vugt qua 90% GDP. Khimg hoang tai ehinh thi gidi nam 2007-2008 Iam cho chinb phu nhieu nudc gia tang ng cdng nhanh ehdng Iy do la cac chinb phii phai giai ciiu he thong tai chinh va nen kinh te. Dieu nay cung khdng khac may so vdi lich sir khiing hoang trong qua khii. Vi khung hoang tai chinh chii yeu nd ra d cac nudc phat trien nen ng cdng chu yeu tang manh d cac nude phat trien trong nhiing nam gan da\.
Khung hoang ng cdng chau Au cho thiy la: tbii nhat, khung hoang cd thi xay ra d nudc
KINHTf CO miic ng cdng rit tbap (nhu Ireland), miic trung binh (Bo Dao Nha). hay mirc cao (Hy Lap); thii hai, khiing hoang ng edng cd the xay ra d nudc ma tmde dd cd ldc dp tang tradng kinh t l cao (nhu Ireland, Hy Lap); thii' ba, eae bat dn kinh t l vT md cd the tich tu trong thdi gian dai trudc khi gay ra khung hoang (nhu Hy Lap, Bd Dao Nha): thii tu, khung hoang ngan hang gay tdn kem rat nhieu cho chinh phu, lam ng cdng tang vol sau do (nhu Ireland); thir nam, khiing hoang ng cdng tac ddng nghiem trpng den tang tradng. Tat ca cae nudc bj khung hoang diu rai vao suy thoai tiong thdi gian dai va that nghiep tang len rat cao.
Ddi vdi Viet Nam, hien nay ng edng dang tang nhanh va tham hut ngan sach d mirc eao nhit so vdi cac nudc trong khu vuc. Ng nudc ngoai ciing dang tang nhanh. Cac kien nghi nit ra ddi vdi Viet Nam nhu sau:
Thu nhat, Viet Nam can giam tham hut ngan sach xudng mire thap han hien nay. Can rat than trpng khi tang ng edng them nua.
Khiing hoang hoan loan cd the xay ra d nudc cd mire ng edng rat thap.
Thu bai, nhiing bat dn din din khung hoang ng cdng ed the tich tu tiong mpt thdi
gian dai. Dilm ylu kinb t l Viet Nam la tilt kiem ndi dia khdng du d l diu tu, mire dp tham hut la kha ldn, cho thiy la Viet Nam dang ti'ch tu ng nudc ngoai kha rihanh. Viet Nam lien tyc tham hyt can can thucmg mai va can can tai khoan vang lai ldn, cho thiy kba nang eanh tranh cua nen kinh te cdn ylu. Viet Nam cd nhirng nam lam phat rit cao, tao ra b i l dn kinh te vT md.Viet Nam can tap trung giai quyet cac diem yeu nay.
Thii ba, neu cd mdt eupe khung hoang ngan hang, khiing hoang he thdng lai chinh hay khung hoang tbi irudng bat ddng san thi no cdng se tang rat nhanh. He thdng ngan hang Viet Nam nhirng nam qua cd ng xau tang vpt va tdn lai nhilu yeu kem. Thi tradng b i l ddng san da sut giam nhieu nam sau mdt giai doan tang tradng ndng. Viet Nam cSn phai tap trung giai quyet no xau trong he thdng ngan hang va can phai luu y ngan ehan cac bong bdng bat ddng san, tai chinh trong tuang lai.
Thir tu, no nudc ngoai Viet Nam hien nay (41,1% GDP) chua phai la cao nhimg khdng phai la thap. Can than trpng khi vay them no nudc ngoai.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
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