Khia canh dia chinh tri - chign iu-ffc cua TPP va mot so tac dong cua no toi Viet Nam
Phaim X u i n Hoang'*' Doan Thj Q u y ' " '
Torn tit: BA- viil md td khia cgnh dia chinh Irj - chiin luoc cdg Hiip dinh Ddi tdc xuyen That Btnh Duang (TPP) ddng sau khia cgnh kinh li - thuong mai ctiand Qua ddn gidi mgt so quon diim cua cdc hgc gid bdn vl Ma cgnh dia ehinh tri - chiin luoc ctia TPP Lcac lae gia bai viel chg rdng khia canh dia chinh Iri - chiin luac cia TPP thi hiin lap r irung ay do cua My trong viic su dgng TPP nhu mgt cdng cu chiin luoc do lg nhiim ma duang ket ng, ddng minh kiin tgg liin minh mdi vd qua do kim tda mgi Trung Qudc dang trot dgy. Nhung phdn lich Irong bdi viii chlnh Id nhdm Idm sdng td quan diim vira neu: dong that cht ra mgt sd ldc dgng lich cue ctia TPP ddi vdi Viet Nam.
Tir khda: Dja chinh trj - chidn luprc. TPP, TPP vd Viet Nam. Chdu A - Thdi Binh Duong I.TPPIupesij
TPP li hiep djnh Ihuong mai ty do da phupng bao gdm 12 thinh vien cua khu vye chiu A - Thdi Binh Duong (MJ.' Nhdl Bin, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Chile, Brunei, Malaysia, Peru, Mexico vd Vi^t Nam). 12 nude niy chidm tdi 40% sdn luqmg thuang m?i toin cau, cao hon nhidu so vdi sin luijng kinh Id cua loan bp Lien minh chiu Au (EU).
TPP bit ngudn tir Hiep djnh Ddi tic Kinh te than cgn Thai Binh Duong (P3) do nguyen thu qudc gia ba nude Chile, TS. Vi«n Thfing lin KHXH; Email:
TliS. Vi?n Th6ng tin KHXH; Email:
doanlhtqu> '^yahoo.com
New Zealand vi Singapore dd xuat ben Id Hdi nghj Thuong dinh nhi linh dao cac nude APEC vio nam 2002 lai Mexico.
Trong vdng 3 ndm (2002-2005), linh djo cCia 3 nude ndi tren di Id chile 4 phien dim phan. Trong phien hpp thu 5 vao thing 4/2005, Brunei di xin tham gia vdi tu cdch thdnh vien sing lap vd hiep djnh dugrc ddi ten thdnh Hijp djnh Ddi tic Kinh te chidn lupc chdu A - Thdi Binh Duong (P4). Kdt qud vdng ddm phdn niy dupe cdng bd tai Hdi nghj Bp trudng Thuong mgi cic nuoc APEC dien ra vio thdng 6/2005. Tai Hpi nghj nay, 20 chuong ttong hiep djnh ciing 2 ban ghi nhd ve nhjn Ihlic mdi ttudng va hpp tdc lao dpng da dupe ban hinh. P4 cam kit gS bd hodn toin thud quan cho 3 nude Chile.
Singapore. New Zealand va 99% cho Brunei (thyc hicn theo giai doan). Hiep
10 Thdng tin Khoa hpc xa hOl. s610.S016 dinh ndy dugc danh gid Id mang linh loan
dien vd cd tieu chuan cao. Nhung nhung Igi ich md cdc ddi tdc P4 dat dugc khdng dang ke.
Thdng 9/2008, Van phdng Dgi dien Thuong mai My (USTR) dudi thdi chinh quyen Tdng thong George W. Bush tuyen bd rang. My cd y dinh gia nhap Hiep dinh P4. Sau My, Australia va Peru cung bay td mong mudn gia nhdp P4 va Viet Nam da dugc mdi vdi tu cdch quan sat vien cCia Hiep dinh, bidn P4 trd thanh P7. Tidp dd, ba vdng dam phdn da dugc lien hanh (nam 2008) de ban ve hai chuong khdng cd trong Hiep dinh P4 la ddu lu vd dich vu tai chinh. Nhung vdng dam phdn TPP ban dau ciia cac thdnh vien liem nang du kidn Id chiic trong Ihdng 3 hodc thdng 5/2009 nhimg rdt cugc phdi tri hoan do My dang trong giai doan bdu cu tdng thdng, vd Chinh quyen mdi cua Tdng thdng Obama can tham van va xem xel lai viec iham gia dam phan TPP. Ddn ihdng 9/2009. Chinh quyen Tdng thdng Obama mdi dua ra tuyen bd dau tien ve TPP: "My se cam kdt vdi cdc ddi ldc TPP vd muc lieu Ihidt lap mpi hiep dinh khu vuc cd khd ndng md rpng Ihdnh vien va xung dang Id hiep dinh thuong mgi tieu chudn cao ciia ih6 ky XXr\ Y djnh Iham gia dam phan TPP dugc Dgi dien Thucmg mai My Ron Kirk d? trinh vdo ngdy 14/12/2009 va dugc Qudc hgi My thdng qua sau mpt lich trinh 90 ngdy theo quy djnh vd quydn xiic tidn Ihuong mgi ndm 2002 ciia My.
TPP da trai qua 19 vdng dam phdn chinh thuc. Vdng dam phan thu nhdt dien ra lai Melbourne, Australia, ngdy 15- 19/3/2010, gdm 8 nude: Australia, My, New Zealand, Chile, Singapore, Brunei.
Peru va Viet Nam; Vdng dam phan thu 19 dien ra lai Brunei, ngay 22-30/8/2013, gdm 12 nude nhu hien nay.
Td sau vdng ddm phan chinh thiic thu 19, cac nude TPP khdng td chdc them bdt ky vdng ddm phdn chinh thdc nao nira nhung dd td chdc nhidu phien ddm phdn cap bd trudng, trudng doan dam phdn va cdc nhdm dam phdn vd nhidu lmh v\rc cu the dd gidi quyet nhdng v§n dd cdn tdn dgng. Ngay 5/10/2015, bp trudng ciia 12 nude thdnh vien da tuyen bd kdt thiic ddm phan. Va theo quy dinh, vdn ban ciia Hiep dinh TPP chi dugc cdng bd chinh thiie 4 ndm sau khi nd cd hieu luc ndn cac nude thdnh vien chi ldn lugt dua ra ban tdm tdt hi?p dinh. Trong ban tdm tdt nay, myc dich, ddc diem va ph?im vi cua Hiep dinh dd dugc lam rd (Trung tam WTO. 2015).
Ve pham vi, Hiep dinh TPP bao gdm 30 chuong dieu chinh thuong mai va cdc vdn de Hen quan tdi thuong mai, bat ddu tir thuong mai hdng hda vd tidp tyc vdi hai quan vd thuan lgi hda thuong mai; v$ sinh kiem djch dOng thuc vgt; hdng rdo kJ thuat ddi vdi thuong mgi; quy djnh v§
phdng ve thuong mgi; ddu tu; dich vy;
thuong mai difn td; sd huu tri lu^{ lao dgng; mdi trudng; cae chuong ve "cdc vdn de xuyen suot" nhdm bao ddm Hi?p djnh TPP dat dugc tiem nang piia minh vd phdt tridn, tinh cgnh tranh va tinh bao ham; gidi quyet tranh chdp; ngogi 1? va cdc didu khoan ve the chd. Va ben cgnh vi?c nang cap each tidp cgn truydn thdng ddi vdi nhdng van de da dugc didu chinh bdi cdc hiep dinh thuang mai tu do trude dd, Hi^p dinh TPP cdn dua vao nhdng vdn dk thuong mgi mdi va dang ndi Idn cDng nhu nhdng van dk xuyen suot. NhiJng vin de ndy bao gom nhdng ngi dung lien quan tdi Internet va nen kinh td sd, su tham gia ngdy cang tdng ciia cac doanh nghidp nhd nude vao ihuong mai vd ddu lu quoc te.
khd nang ciia cdc doanh nghi?p nhd trong viec tan dung cdc hiep djnh thucmg mgi vd nhiing ndi dung khdc.
Khia canh d|a chmh hi...
Nhu viy. khi TPP cd hipu lyc tten thuc te, cic rao can thud quan v i rio cin phi thud quan se dupe do bd. 18.000 chung loai hang hda se dupe cit giim hoic xoa bd thud quan, tiong dd 99.9%
sin pham chd tao se dupe dd bd thud quan. Cie tieu chuin chung cho 12 nude lien quan tdi lao ddng, mdi trudng... se dupe thdng nhit. Trdn budc di dd. TPP se thuc day hdi nhap kinh td sau ipng hon d khu vye chau A - Thai Binh Duong ciing nhu mang lai nhidu Ipi ich cho tit c i thinh vien ciia Hiep djnh. Mac dd npi dung thda thudn chua dupe cdng bd, "cic nghien eiiu so bp udc tinh TPP sd giup cdc qudc gia
^
thanh vidn ldng them 285 ty USD san lupng kinh id vio nim 2025. Mdl nghien eftu cua Vien Peterson gin day cQng chi ra ring sau khi hoin tit TPP. ting tnrdng GDP tai cac qudc gia chau A nhu Vijt Nam, Malaysia v i New Zealand se cd budc nhiy vpt. Nghien ciiu ndy cung chi ra ring TPP sc thiic diy sdn lupng vi hoat ddng xuat khiu cic mdt hing thiet bj di?n Hi, dft may, xay dyng vi miy mdc tju Viet Nam. Malaysia hay phucmg lien vjn chuyen d Nhdt Bdn" (Thdng tin xi Viel Nam. 2015:8).
2. Khia canh dia chinh trl - cfaien lu^c cua TPP
Trong bdi canh nhidu nude Iren thd gidi cd xu hudiig khdng coi trpng ddng Do la My. khidn sue manh kinh Id todn cau dua tren ndn tirig ciia ddng tidn nay bj gidm sill trdng thiy. Ngay sau khi len cam quydn. Tdng thdng B. Obama di dl ra muc lieu so mpt ciia My Id gidnh lai dnh hudmg ciia nude ndy vd khdi phuc siic m ^ h cua ddng Dd la.
TTreo dd, Tdng thdng MJ- da dd xuit sing kidn sdm hinh thinh hai khu vuc ty do thucmg mai IOT nhil thd gidi. Dd l i khu vye ty do thucmg mai chau A - Thii
Binh Duong (FTAAP) ttdn Co sd TPP vd Khu vye ty do thuong mai chau Au - Dai Tay Duong (TAFTA) ttdn co so Hiep djnh Thuong mai vd diu ttr xuydn Dai Tiy Duong (TTIP). Trong dd, TPP chinh la nd lyc cua My nhdm phuc hdi vi md rdng dang kd inh hudng cua My. Dd in vd Hipp djnh da phuong vd diu nr, nhim lao dieu kien cho cic cdng ty xuydn quoc gia My nhimg quydn hinh mi theo dd, cd thd phu nhan hoic bii bd nhung dao ludt. quy djnh cua cic quoc gia khic gdy tdn hai ddi vdi cic cdng ty niy,
Myc tidu kinh Id ciia TPP chinh li thuc diy ty do thuong nuii toin khu vye chdu A - Thii Bmh Duong. Hiep djnh ndy cd the giiip hinh thinh mpt thd chd thupng mai ty do hon bao ttiim loan khu vye.
Khdng nhang the. mpt TPP md rpng cd thd hinh Ihinh nhimg lidn kel vdi cdc nhdm Ihuong mai khic nhu TTIP va Lien minh Thii Binh Ducmg cac ndn kinh td thj Inrdng ty do My Latinh.
Ngoii y dd kinh Id. MJ cdn mong mudn sii dyng TPP nhu mpt cdng cy dd thyc hidn chien lupc "xoay tt^c" sang chau A - Thii Binh Duong, gdp phin bio ve.
duy tri sdc manh qudn sy tren ph«m vi toin eiu do My dung ddu. Didu dd cd nghia Ii, thdng qua vipc lien kdl thj ttvdng, sd tao dpng luc kinh td dd timg buoc lim Ihay ddi can can quydn lyc. Chu truong cua My tham gia TPP li sau khi Hiep dinh dupe ky ltd! vi thuc thi. My sd nhanh chdng thidt lap cic loai thj ttudng. timg budc xiy dyng nat ty kinh td chinh tti Iheo hudng cd lpi cho hp, t ^ ra eye di|n chinh ni mdi o chau A - Thdi Binh Duong.
Dieu nay dupe mdl nhi nghien ciiu tir Trung Qudc nhin nhan: "Chau A - Thai Binh Duong, mdt nong nhihig khu vye then chot dxmg khudn khd chien luoc an ninh cua My dang diam gia toin dipn vio
12 Thdng fin Khoa hpc xa h$i. s610.2016 tdt cd eac hoat ddng gan lidn vdi su bao
dam an ninh. My mong mudn thanh lap d dd mgt "cdng ddng ddn chu thinh vugng".
thidt lap vd ciing cd vai trd thii llnh ciia minh lgi dd" (Yu Xiaotong, 2011: 33-34).
Cd the thay. trong nhieu phuang thuc My tiep can chdu A - Thai Binh Duong, viec xiic lien thdng qua con dudng kinh le van la chii dao. Trong khi nhieu nude mdi ndi d chau A dang khdi khao su phat trien, su khdng dinh minh, su ket ndi vdi cdc qudc gia phat trien cd ddng cdp, TPP cd thd Id mpt ludng sinh khi mdi de nhieu qudc gia lan dung co hpi phat tridn. Theo Thii tudng Singapore L,y Hidn Long, "cac nude ASEAN cung chii trgng tang cudng su gdn bd vdi Hoa Ky, bdi hp nhdn thdy Hoa Ky dang tiep tue gid mgi vai trd ihidt yeu, dli Irong viec duy tri mdi trudng chien luoc, ddu tranh chdng chu nghTa khung bo c^c doan, hay trong vi?c thtic ddy tdng trudng kinh td" (L^ Hidn Long, 2011:26).
TI^P trudc hdt Id mpt thda thugn vd kinh te, rgng hon nua la mpt lien kdt chidn luge tren cdc ITnh vuc chinh trj va quan s\r. Ngoai y nghTa vd thuong mgi vd kinh td dugc 10 ra khd rd rdng. TPP cdn cd y nghia dja chinh tri quan trpng ma theo nhidu nha phdn tich, Igi ich thuong mai chi la ydu Id phu so vdi lgi ich dja chinh tri. Vdi muc tidu dd, TPP ddng vai trd la mgt cdng cu. su hd trg ddc luc cho vide thuc hien chinh sdch xoay true cua My vd chdu A. "Chinh sdch 'xoay true sang chau A' gay nhidu tranh luan ciia Chinh quydn Obama Id mOl su nd luc dd dua My trd lgi cdc vdn bdi chidn luge va kinh td khu vgc. va su chuydn hudng cd le Id bdng chiing rd rang nhdl trong su chii trpng ciia Chinh quydn vao TPP" (Khoa Khoa hpc chinh trj - Dai hpc Doshisha.Nhat Ban. 2016: 72-73).
Samuel Rines trong bai "TPP, dia chinh tri chd khdng chi Id tSng trudng" da nhin ra nhdng lgi ich ciia Mf dgt dugc qua TPP. Theo tde gia, nude MJ hudng Igi ldn tu hiep dinh nay, tuy nhien Igi ich kinh td trade mat khdng phdi la muc lieu ciia My.
ma TPP thidn ve vide kdt ndi vdi mdl chdu A dang len "khi ndi ddn TPP rd rang trpng tdm khong chi la vdn de kinh Id ciia nude My - it ra khdng phai ngay bdy gid. Lgi ich liem nang cd dugc lu vide thdng qua mdl quan he ddi tac thuong mgi manh me vd dau lu xuyen Dai Tay Duong ldn hon nhdng gi MJ se dugc tu TPP", "dugc coi la mpt phdn cua true chdu A, TPP c6 tinh chinh tri hon bdt cu didu gi ddi vdi MJ"
(Michael J. Green and Malhew P.
Goodman, 2016).
Bdn ve anh hudng vd phucmg di?n dia chinh trj eiia TPP, hai hgc gid Michael J.
Green vd Mathew P. Goodman cho rdng, TPP tdc ddng ddn khu vuc tren ba binh didn: Thu nhdl, TPP tdc ddng tdi trat ty khu vuc; Thu hai, TPP giiip cdn bdng siic manh; Thu ha, TPP giup djnh hinh sylya chpn tuong lai ciia Trung Qudc (Michael J.
Green and Mathew P. Goodman, 2016).
Theo chiing tdi, khia canh dja chinh tri - chidn luge ciia My thd hidn d y dd ldn do la md dudng kdt ndi ddng minh, kidn tao lien minh mdi va qua dd, kim tda mpt Trung Qudc dang troi day.
Cung khong khd nhdn ra khia cgnh dja chinh' tri - chidn luge ciia My trong TPP. No dugc dd cap tu khi nhdng vdng dam phdn k h ^ ddu vd ludn sdu, xuyen sudt ben trong true TPP trong qua trinh trien khai ciia nd. Mac dii. My khong phdi la khdi ddu ciia TPP nhung khi My tham gia. nude nay Id thuc thd ddng vai trd chii chdt didu khidn cudc choi TPP. Thirc td cho thdy, ngay tir khi bdt ddu Iham gia ddm phdn ddn thdi didm MJ tuyen b6
"xoay tryc" vd chdu A - Thai Binh Duong.
Khfa cgnh dia chinh trj..
TPP trd thanh mpt ttong nhimg ttoi cdt chien luoc quan trpng - mdt cdng cu cdn ban dd My thidt i$p vdnh dai inh hudng ciia My. Sy gdn kdl cdc ddi tdc tham gia TPP dupe My uu lien trong chien lupc ciia minh. Nhdn djnh vd dieu ndy, tdc gii Mireya Solis cho ring: "TPP l i cdi chan Ihir hai (sau sy djnh hudng lai cae ngudn lyc quan sy) trong chinh sdch tii can bing d chau A" (Mireya Solis, 2015).
Brock R. William, Ben Dolven vi cac cpng sy trong bii "Hiep djnh Doi tic xuydn Thdi Binh Duong: nhimg in y ve chien lupc" da trich dan nhidu quan didm xoay quanh nhirng tic dpng mang linh L chien lupc ciia TPP. Nghien cihi ndy nhin f djnh. TPP dupe cho la mdl bii kidm tra vd uy tin cua My tai khu vye. Chidn lupc an ninh qudc gia nim 2015 ciia Chinh quydn My da chi ra rdng viec My duy tri sy ldnh d?o dya vio viec djnh hinh mpt trat ty kinh le todn cau dang noi tidp tyc thd hien nhihig Ipi ich cung nhu gii trj My. Mac du cd nhihig thdnh cdng, he Ihdng dya tren nhihig ludt lp My hien tai dang phdi canh tranh vdi cdc md hinh khdc it cdi md hon... De gidi quydt nhimg thach thirc ndy. My phii cd chidn lupc trong vipc sir dyng sire manh kinh Id dd thidt lap nhimg luat lp mdi, tdng cudng cic quan hp ddi tdc vi thuc diy sy phit tridn loin didn (Brock R. William, Ben Dolven and others, 2016).
Mpt quan diem khic cho phep cung cd them nhan djnh trdn day, dd Id: "ttvc ddn chdu A qua TPPA nhu mpt tru cpt chlnh cung Id mpt phdn cua mdt chidn lupc rpng ldn hon cua My vc kinh Id chinh trj quoc td ldn dd duy tri sy hien dien Ihuong tryc cua My khdp noi ttdn thd gidi" (Wan Fayhsal, 201d).
Cung theo Brock R. William, Ben Dolven va cic cpng sy, trong hai thd ky
qua, chau A dupe cho Ii da tt^i qua 4 md hinh vd trat ty khu vye vi tit cd cac md hinh cd dac diem chung la chii ydu bj quy djnh bdi bin chat cua thuong mai. Md hinh thir nhdt li trat ty khu vye Idy Trung Qudc lam trung tam. Md hinh thir hai xuil hien ngay sau sy sup dd cua dc chd nha Thanh dudi tay cua chau Au vi Nhat Ban vao cudi Ihd ky XIX, dau the ky XX. Md hinh ttil ty nay dya tren sy da phdn phdi quydn lyc phin inh str thdng tri ciia chau Au vd bin chat quyen lyc cua chau luc ndy. Md hinh thii ba ve trat ty khu vuc ndi ldn mdt each chdng vinh vdo nhimg ndm giira hai cupc chien dudi nd lyc cua My nhdm tao ra mpt sap xdp an ninh l^p thd mang u'nh da phuong. Md hinh thii tu xudt hien sau chidn thing cua ddng minh tai Thai Binh Duong vio ndm 1945. Tr§t ty mdi dya tren thuang mai da phuong va cdc quy tic tdi ehinh dupe thidt 14p d Bretton Woods ciing vdi sy hipn dien manh me cua qudn dpi My vd he thdng cic ddng minh song phuong tai khu vuc (Brock R. William, Ben Dolven and others, 2016).
Sy tham dy cila TPP chinh li sy phdn chia lai quydn lyc ciia khu vye chdu A.
Day la didu My ludn thd hipn mdi quan tain khi thuc hien chidn lupc tai xoay tryc ddi vdi chiu A. Nhi nghidn ciiu Jean - Pierre Lehmann (Vien Phdt tridn quin ly qudc td, Thuy Si) nhin dinh, TPP li sy ddi diu tryc dipn ve dja chinh tti cdng khai giihi My vd Nhat Bin vol Tning Qudc (Thdng tin xi Viet Nam, 2015). Thdng qua TPP, My dang van dung ddn biy thucmg mai cho cic muc lieu khic nhau vdi cii dich cudi cimg Ii kim hdm Trung Qudc - mdt cudng qudc dang troi day va thdch thire vj tri sidu cudng cua My.
Hien tai, dii dang li thinh vien trong khdi BRICS, mdl thd chd kinh tl kha manh trong nen kinh td toin ciu nhung
14 Thdng Hn Khon hgc xfi h^. s610.2016 Trung Qudc van ndm ngoai TPP. Trong
cupc cgnh tranh vdi TPP. Trung Qudc se gap khdng it khd khan. Tu\ nhien, Trung Qudc dang noi idn nhu mdt nhan td thdch thuc su md rgng ciia TPP vuon tdi khu vuc chdu A.
Hien nay, su hien didn vd cdc uu the cua Trung Qudc tai chau A la khd Idn. Vdi ASEAN, Trung Qudc ngay cdng phat huy anh hudng ddi vdi nhieu nude thanh vien cua khdi. Thuc Id nay khidn MJ Io ngai vd bupc phai day mgnh cac bidn phdp thuc hi|n TPP, nhdm tranh gianh, thidt lap quydn ehii dgo trat tu d chau A Thai Binh Duong. Rd rang, vdi quy md chiem 40% kinh td loan cdu, lai dugc van hdnh theo mdt "Thda thugn thuong mai lu do"
(FTA). TPP chdc chdn se cd lac ddng khdng nhd tdi kinh td Trung Qudc - m0l nen kinh td chiem tdi 60% ldng trudng dya vao ngoai thuong.
Trung Qudc ludn tham vpng phat huy dnh hudng ciia minh trong khu vuc chau A. Hi?n lgi mdc du Trung Qudc van dang phy thupc vao nhiJng quy tdc eiia thuong mgi todn cdu nhung nude nay van luon tim cdch de tao dy^g m^t trat tu khu vuc mdi dd Id irgt ty khdng cd cac khdi lidn minh vd chi dugc quydt dinh bdi ehdu A.
De thyc hien tham vgng nay, Trung Qudc dd vd dang xuc tidn dh xudt "mdt vdnh dai, m^t con dudng" vdi vide ddu tu co sd hg tdng ldn d khu vuc A - Au, thanh lgp Ngdn hang Ddu tu co sd hg tdng chau A (AlIB), dam phdn Hiep dinh Doi tdc kinh le todn didn khu vuc (RCEP)... Tuy nhidn, vdi vide thiic ddy tu do thuong mai vd nhung Igi ich kinh id ma TPP cd thd mang lgi, hiep dinh nay sd thuc ddy su phdt trien ciia nhidu quoc gia va tu do xem TPP nhu la khudn kho kinh id mdu muc ciia khu vuc. Mgt cugc didu tra dugc tien hdnh vao nam 2014 cua cac tac gia ndy cho thdy. phdn ldn tdng ldp tinh hoa
trong khu vye chau A xem TPP cd y nghTa quan trpng hon ddi vdi su phdt tridn kinh td cua nude hg so vdi RCEP.
Vdi quy md ddn sd Trung Qudc khoang 1,3 ty ngudi va ty trgng ndn kinh te chiem 10% kinh td toan cdu thi chii truong kidm che Trung Qudc cua My khd cd the thuc hidn. Khdng nhdng thd. 19 khu vuc thuang mgi tu do ma Trung Quoc thidt lap cd lidn quan ddn 32 quoc gia va khu vuc tren thd gidi; trong do, 14 hi^p dinh thuong mgi tu do ma nude nay tham gia ky ket lien quan ddn gan 20 quoc gia thupc khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong, nen tdc dpng ciia TPP ddi vdi Trung Qudc khd cd the gdy ra dot bidn ldn.
Trung Qudc cung da cho MJ vd cac thanh vidn TPP thdy su phan ung dia - kinh te manh md ciia ridng minh nhu: thiic day hang logt hidp dinh tu do thucmg mai song phuong, nhdn mgnh RCEP d binh dien da phuang vd tuyen bd khdi d^ng sieu du an nua ddu tu co sd hg tdng - nua dia chidn luge qua sang kidn "mpt vdnh dai, mpt con dudng" ndi li^n cdc chdu lyc.
Tuy nhidn, cung co nhidu nhd phdn tich cho rdng, TPP dung Id giu vai hd quan trpng trong chidn luge xoay tryc chdu A ciia MJ nhung khdng nhdm myc tieu can budc tien cua Trung Qudc md hudng tdi sy hda binh, thinh vugng. TPP giup MJ tang cudng mdi quan h? vdi cdc dong minh trong khu vuc, ddc bi?t la NhSt Ban, ddng thdi tgo didu kidn cho nhidu nen kinh t^ nhd gidm su 1^ thugc mgnh mg vao kinh te Trung Qudc dd hp cd thd dpc lap trong cac boat dpng ngogi giao vd chlnh sach chinh tri.
Vugt len san choi kinh te. cd MJ vd Trung Qudc dang canh tranh dia chidn luge vdi nhau thdng qua cdc sang ki^n hgp tdc ciia minh. Su hinh thanh ciia cdc thd chd da phucmg dang khdi dgng cdc
Khia canh i^a chlnh hi..
qui trinh sdng Ipc. Cdc ludt choi duoc djnh dang khdng bin hein todn mang tfah
"loai ttv", nhung nd thuc diy cdc nhdm qudc gia cung chip nhdn chia se, hpp tdc vd xdc tidn cdc con dudng phit ttidn chung vdi nhau, vi ngupc lai giim bdt Uli ndng tidp can ciia cdc qudc gia khdng theo dudi ciing chuin myc va ludt Id. Qud Irinh niy s6 keo dii, vd ddt cdc qu6c gia vdo nhihig lya chpn luong iai. Dd chinh Id ndi hdm dja chinh tti quan ttpng nhit ma TPP mang lai. Cupc canh tranh gidnh quyen chii dao d khu vye giiia My vi Trung Qudc tdi day dupe dy bdo Id rdt phirc t9p vi quydt liet.
^
Trong quan hp gidng co giiia My vi Trung Qudc, thii dp eda Nhdt Bdn giu vj tri lit quan trpng, bdi chi cin Nhjt nghieng vd ben ndo, bdn dd se chidm uu thd. Trong giai doan hidn nay. Nhdt Ban cung dang thd hidn lya chpn phuong sich
"can bing". Mpt mdl, nude niy tuyen bd gia nhjp TPP dd cung cd quan hp ddng minh Nhat - My; mdl khic, tich cyc khdi dpng dim phdn khu vye thuong mai ty dp Trung - Nhdl - Hdn, nhdm lim dju di nhihig mdi nguy tir Trung Qudc.
Mdc dil TPP Id sin choi cua My, nhung nd khdng phdi Id ddc quydn ciia My hoin toin loai trii Trung Qudc. Bdi chu truong ciia TPP Id khdng ban chd cdc ddi tupng gia nhip vio Id chiic niy. Bit ky quoc gia nio, chi cin mdn thu diing cic lieu chuin theo quy djnh cua TPP, ddu cd thd dim phdn dd tt* thanh thinh vien ciia Hiep djnh. Day li bidu hi?n cua mpt md hinh md, nhim thuc ddy qui ttinh hinh thanh FTAAP theo md hinh cua My, do My ndm vai ttd chu dao va xdy dyng cic lieu chudn theo quy tie My. Theo nhihig kel qui dim phin vira mdi dat dupe, TPP li mpi chudi phiic hpp cde dieu khoin.
TPP khdng chi bao ham nhihig didu khoin ciia mpt hipp djnh thucmg mai quoc id
thdng thudng, nhu: hdng rao thuong mai, ky thudt, vin dd kidm djch ve sinh dich tl, quy tic xuit xii hang hda, gidi quydt tranh chip,... m i cdn lidn quan ddn cic vin dd
"bdn trong bien gidi" cua moi qudc gia thdnh vien. Theo dd, cdc nude thude TPP bat bupc phdi cdi eich thd chd, minh bach thj ttirdng. chdng tham nhOng, cdi cdch ngdnh tii chinh theo cdc quy chuin.v.v...
Nhin bd ngoii, TPP cd ve binh ding, nhung vd bin chit, nd van Id quy tic kinh Id do My chi phdi v i n^n thue Id, My co thd dp ddt quydt sich kinh td cho cic nude thdnh vidn; ttong dd, cd thd bao gdm cdc lenh ttiing phat ddi vdi cic nude vi phjm cic quy djnh cd lien quan. VI vdy, khi Hiep dinh cd hidu lyc, vipc phit sinh mdu thuan giiia My vdi cic nude thanh vidn li khd ttinh khdi. Vi Trung Qudc ndu mudn dupe diing trong hing ngQ cdc quoc gia TPP cOng khdng dl dang gi chip thudn cdc lull choi do My dd xudng, nir phi dd li sy chap nhan thda hiep.
3. Vi?t Nam trong tac dpng ciia TPP Ld mpt thinh vien ciia TPP, Vidt Nam duong nhien ehju lic ddng cua hiep djnh niy tren c i hai phuong dien kinh tl vi dja chinh tti - chien lupc. Nhin tir phuong dien dja chinh trj - chiin lupc, cd thd thiy, TPP giup Viet Nam djt dupe mpt sd lpi ich sau:
Thi nhdt. gidm thiiu su dnh huong cua Trung Qudc
Viet Nam biy lau dupe cho li Id thupc ning ne vip md hinh Trung Quic. Vl phuong didn kinh te, Vipt Nam nhip sieu Idn tir Trung Qudc, ehilm tdi 85% tdng nhdp sidu (Nguydn Duy Lpi, 2016: 4) Vide Iham gia TPP chinh Id m0t ttong nhOng phuong thiic giup Vipt Nam gidm thieu sy Id thupc kinh tc vdo Trung Qudc, cd eo hdi md rdng quan he kinh Id vdi cdc
16 Th6ng tin Khoa h«c xa hQi. s610.2016 nen kinh te Idn ihudc TPP. Cd thd ndi, su
hien dien cua My trong khu vuc. dat trong quan he vdi My, vi thd Viel Nam se dugc ndng ldn nhidu tren cdc phuong didn. Dii rang. Viet Nam phdi vugt qua nhung sue ep chinh tn tu phia Trung Qudc. Thuc te cho thdy, vdi su gdn gui vd vi tri dia ly vd su tucmg ddng ve che dp chinh tri, ap luc Trung Qudc vdi Viet Nam Id kha ldn.
Thdi gian gan day. Viet Nam da tan dung CO hpi quan he qudc te. thiic day chien luge ngoai giao khdn kheo, da phuang hda nhdm ngan chan eac ddng thdi banh trudng ciia Trung Qudc tai bien Ddng, dd tiep tyc cdng cupc bdo ve chii quyen vd loan ven lanh thd qudc gia.
Thu hai, TPP gdp phdn ihdc ddy cdi cdch thi chi d Viei Nam
Vide cdi each the che hien dugc Dang va Nhd nude Viet Nam hdt sue quan tdm.
Vdi nhdng didu khoan, quy dinh chdt che ciia TPP, hiep dinh nay sd tao sdc tp budc Viet Nam phdi cd nhdng dieu chinh nhdt djnh trong cac chinh sdch, chien luge.
TPP Cling gdp phdn thuc ddy vide cdi cdch the che d Vi?t Nam. hudng tdi mdt thd chd kinh Id thj trudng, hien dai, minh bgch vd dfic biet vdi cdc didu khoan vd mdi trudng. iao ddng. nhan quydn... Ddy dugc xem la mpt trong nhdng tac ddng hai chidu cua TPP ddi vdi Viet Nam. Ndu Vidt Nam cd du kha nang va quyet lam dd cai each thd chd Ihi TPP sd gdp phdn giiip nude ta phat tridn bdn vung ban, cdn ngugc lgi no ciing se ddt Viel Nam vdo nhdng nii ro khd ludng Imdc dugc.
Thu ba, ndng tdm quan hi Viet Nam vdi nhiiu nuoc ldn irong TPP
Vi?c MJ va nhidu nude ldn tgo didu ki?n de Viel Nam tham gia TPP - mgt ddi tdc chien luge quan trpng ciia Mj vua ndng tdm chua lau, cho thdy Mj da phdi cdn
nhac nhieu den ydu td chinh tri - chidn luge, ddt song hdnh vdi muc tidu va lgi ich kinh td. TPP vdi vai trd chii dao ciia MJ vd nhiing su gan ket, nang tdm quan he Viet - My cimg vdi Id trinh vd budc di eiia TPP, dang dat ra nhieu van de huge cd MJ va Viet Nam thay ddi thich nghi. Trong Tuyen bd chung mdi day giiia Tdng thdng MJ B.
Obama vd Chu tich nude Trdn Dgi Quang (thang 5/2016, lai Hd Ndi). MJ cam kdt tdn trgng su khac biet vd chd do chinh tri. tdn dgng nhan quydn cua Viel Nam. cd MJ va .Viet Nam Ihuc day nd iuc vi nhitng muc tidu chung. Vdi tu ludng Vipt Nam mong mudn lam bgn vdi cac nude thi viec hdi nhdp TPP giiip Vi?t Nam cd them mdt co hdi ldn phat huy lgi thd, tai nguyen dja chinh tri ciia minh •
Tdi lieu tham khao
1. Brock R.William, Ben Dolven and others (2016), "The dans-pacific Partnership: strategic implication".
Congressional research service Report.
2. Michael J. Green and Mathew P.
Goodman (2016), "After TPP: the Geopolitics of Asia and The Pacific".
The fVashington Quarterly, Winter.
3. Mireya Solis (2015), The geopolitical importance of the Tran.t-Pacific Partnenthip: At stake, a liberal economic order, March 13, http://www.brookings.edu/.. ./13- geopolitical-importance-trans...
4. Nguy§n Duy Lgi (2016), "Hi?p djnh Ddi tdc xuyen Thdi Binh Duong: Mpt sd ca hdi vd. thach thuc chii ydu ddi vdi Vidt Nam", Nhiing vdn di Kinh li vd Chinh tri thi gidi, sd 3 (239).
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7.
V
Kfaia canh dia chinh tn...
http://tapchiqptd.vn/vi/quoc-phong- quan-su-nuoc-ngoai/hiep-dinh-doi-tac- xuyen-thai-binh-duong-va-cuc-dien- chinh-tti-khu-vuc/8619.httnl, ttuy cap ngiy 20/7/2016.
6. Nguyin Tang Nghj (2016), Tdc dgng tir TPP vd ung phd cua Trung Qudc, http://nghiencuuquocte.org/2016/07/18 /tac-dong-tpp-trung-quoc/. truy cap ngiy 29/7/2016.
Hoing Nguydn (2015), Nhirng tdc ddng dia chinh Iri ciia TPP.
htlp://vnexpress.net/tin-hic/the- gioi/phan-tich/nhung-tac-dong-dia- chinh-tti-cua-tpp-329l49l.html, ttuy cip ngiy 15/7/2016.
Truong Minh Huy Vu (2015), TPP dudi gdc nhin dia chien luac.
hlIp://vvww.lhesaigonlimes.vn/l36675/
TPP-duoi-goc-nhin-dia-chien- luoc.hlml. tmy cap ngdy 15/7/2016.
Wan Fayhsal (2016), "The Geopolitics of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA), A US Imperial Strategy", Global Research, January
17 15, http://www.gIobairesearch.ca/the- gcopolitics-of-flie.. ./5501558 10. Yu Xiaotong (2011), "Tidp can chidn
lupc cua My ddi voi chdu A - Thii Bmh Duong va inh hirdng ddi vdi quan he Trung - My". Niin gidm Thdng lin KHXH nude ngoai. sd 2.
I I.Ly Hien Long (2011). "My v i chau A:
tuong lai ciing chia sd cua chiing ta", Niin gidm Thdng tin KHXH nude ngodi. sd 2.
12. Khoa Khoa hpc Chinh Ui - Dai hoc Doshisha. Nhit Bin (2015). "TPP vi 4 tdc dpng chinh ddi vcri chu nghia khu vye chau A - Thii Binh Duong", Cdc vdn di chinh tri qudc ti. sd 12.
13. Thdng tin xa Viet Nam (2015), "TPP vd cudc canh tranh chua phdn thing bai My - Trung", Tin tham khdo thi gidi. sd 233-TTX, thir 7, ngdy 17/10/2015.
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