NGHIEN cau KINH TE
KINH TE VIET NAM NAM 2015 - DINH HI/lorNG NAM 2016
I Kinh t l Viet Nam 2015 da kha quan nhung
• chu^ ben vtttig
Su phuc hdi cham cfia kinh t l the giffl vfli gia dau lien tyc giam, nen kinh t l thfi hai t h i gidi la Tmng Qudc va mpt sd nttflc pha gia ddng Hen... ffi tac dpng kha manh den nen kinh t l Viet Nam trong nam qua.
Tdng quan lai la quy mo va Bdm lire cfia nen kinh te nuflc ta da tang len nhllu: GDP da dat mdc 200 t j USD (binh quan dau ngudi dat tren 2.200 USD); tang trudng GDP dat cao nhat trong 8 nam qua khoang 6,68%; tdc dp lang gia tieu dfing giam Iha'p cfln 2% va thap nhat trong 14 nam qua; nang suat lao dflng lang binh quan 3,8%/nam; chi sd nang luc canh tranh todn cau cfia Viet Nam trong 5 nam tang 19 bae; t^ Id lao dpng qua dao tao dat 51,6%; thu hfit dau tu nudc ngodi dat 22,76 J USD (tang 12,5%) vfli 2.013 du dn dUBC cap phdp mfli (15,58 ti USD) va 814 lupt du an FDI ca'p vdn bo sung (7,18 ti USD). Qua nhfing con sd tren cd the thay, niu didu hanh nhjp nhdng cac chinh sach vl md, dac bidt la chinh sdch tai khda vd chinh sach Sin td van cd I h i dat 2 chi tieu mong mudn id tang tnidng khd cao (6,68%) vd lam phat kha thap (2%). Tat nhien cung phai ke den nhidu nguyen nhan
NGUYEN VINH THANH *
khdc ntta nhu an ninh luang thuc duoc dam bao, gia dau tblgia giam sdu...
Dac biet, dau hieu phuc hdi cfia ndn kinh t l t h i hidn ft eon sd 94.754 doanh nghiep thanh lap mfli trong nam 2015 vdi sd vdn dang k# 601.5191^ ddng va 851.0241^ ddng tang vdn. Dd la stt Un tttdng cfia nha dau tu vao khu vuc doanh nghidp ddl vdi tidm nang phat trien cfia thj tn/dng trong nudc Ihdi gian tdi.
Mpt ly do quan trong cho sir phat triin ndy id Luat Dflanh nghidp sfia ddi cd bleu lire tfi ngdy 1/7/2015, cac qui djnh phat Iriln kinh doanh da duoc epng ddng doanh nghiep ung bp nhu vide triin khaj cap md sd doanh nghiep ttt dpng nit Ihffl gian cap Giay chfimg nhan dang ky chl Irong vdng 3 ngdy.
Vd kinh t l ddi ngoai, nam 2015 cd t b i coi id dai thang Ipi cfia Vidt Nam vdi nhttng sir kidn Idn (ngedi TPP vd AEC) nhu ky R A Vidt Nam - Lidn minh hai quan Nga - Belaros - Kazaxtan, k i t thfic chinh thttc ddm phan FTA Viet Nam - Han Qudc, F A Viet Nam - EU. Hien nay, Viet Nam da dttgc 59 qudc gia cdng nhan cd nen kinh te thj tnrdng vd da mft rpng quan bd thttang mai tu de vfli 55 qude gia, trong dd cd hau hit cac quoc gia trong Nhflm G-20.
Bang 1 : Cac cFii tieu kinh te Viet Nam nam 2015 TT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11) 11 12
Chi tieu GDP Tang trucmg kmh te' Tliu nhap dau nqucrt Xuat khau Nhap khau Nhap sieu Thu hut (qiai nqSn) vfin FDI Tanq triitm thu hul (qiai nqan) von FDI Chi sfi qia tieu dunq CPI Giai nqan von ODA NOcdnq Boi chl NS
Dtfnvi T ( U S D
%
USD T9USD TJUSD TJUSD T f U S D
% %
TyUSD
% GDP
% GDP
Gia tri 204 6,68%
2,109 165,1 174,4 9,3 22,76 (14,5)
12,5 (17,4) 1,33
5,0 61.3 5,0
* Tien si, Gidm doc Hoc vien Chinh tri Khu vUc I.
Ms? CHI S I A O DUC LY LUAN • SO 244 ( 4 / 2 0 1 6 )
Nguon; Jong cue thong ke va Bo Ke hoach Bau tu
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NGHIEN cOU KINH TE
Tuy nhidn, nhin chung nen kinh te trung nude nam qua v i n phuc hdi cham, chua b i n vttng;
nang suat, hieu qua va stte canh tranh cua ndn kinh t l cfln kha thap; chtta chfi dpng treng hdi nhap; tang trudng kinh t l cdn phu thupc nhieu vao ngudn lire bdn ngodi chtta cd dttpc dpng lire mfli. Xuat khau ea nuflc dat 165 ty USD (tang 13,5%) nhung ittc da'y xuat khau vdn nhd nhieu vao khu Vttc FDI vl xuat khau cfia khu virc kinh t l trong nuflc nam qua da giam 2,6%, trang khi dfl nhdp khau ca 2 khu vuc deu tang (kinh t l treng nttflc tang 8%, khu vuc FDI tang 18,1%) va dat hfln 174 ty USD (tang 13,7%, nhap sieu hfln 8 t^
USD). Nen kinh t l Viet Nam v i n con nhllu khd khan nhu quy mfl no cflng idn, ng xau cdn nhidu, thdm hut ngan sach cdn cao.
2. Kinh t l Viet Nam nam 2016: Djnh hudng va giai phap
Nam 2016 la nam khdi dau cho giai doan tang trttdng 5 nam (2016 - 2020), vfli muc tidu chiln Iugc sflm dua nuflc ta cfl ban trft thanh nuflc cdng nghiep theo hudng hidn dai. Nghj quyet 98/2015/
QH13 cfia Qudc hpi vd Nghj quylt 01/NQ-CP cfia Chinh phu ve k l hoach phat triin kinh t l - xa hpi nam 2016 da dua ra muc tidu tdng quat nam 2016 la "Tdng san pha'm trong nudc (GDP) tang khoang 6,7%; tdng kim ngach xuat kha'u tang khoang 10%; t j le nhdp sieu so vdi kim ngach xudt khau dudi 5%; tdc dd tang gid tieu dung dttfli 5%; tdng vfl'n dau t u phat triin tuan xa hpi khflang 3 1 % GDP...'.
Dudi tdc dpng tich cue tfi thj truflng t h i gifli vd nhfing cai thien c i a tinh hinh trong nttflc, tinh hinh xuat khau nam 2016 se kha quan hfln (khoang 190 t9 USD). Tuy nhidn, do xu httdng tang gia USD va viec giam gia cac ddng tien chuyen ddi khae cd the iam cho tien VND tang gia anh huftng d i n stte canh tranh hang hfla Viet Nam tren thj trttdng the gidi. Dac biet dang quan tdm Id viec hpi nhap vdo TPP vd AEC vtta mang lai co hpi Ifln, vtta Id thach thttc khdng nhd ddi vdi lao dpng Viet Nam. Vdi thj truflng lao dpng cfia ca khu vuc,
CO hdi viec ldm cfia lao dpng Viet Nam se dugc md rpng vdi mfic ittflng cac nhung cung phai canh tranh vfli lao dpng tfi cac qudc gia khae vao Vidt Nam, Mac du tinh binh tang trudng kinh t l trong nudc da am ldn, san xuat mft rpng lam tang eau lao dpng, nhung tinh binh vide ldm van chua cd nhieu kha quan. Mpt mat, do chat lugng lao dflng nudc ta chua dap fing dugc nhu cau sfi dyng eua doanh nghidp, mat kbac cac nganh n g h l cfia lao dpng dugc dao tao chua phu hpp vfli thuc t l san xudt. Tfi dd cd t h i thay ti Id that nghiep cfia nude ta treng giai doan tdi cd t b i se cfln tang ien.
Da sd cdc td chttc va chuyen gia kinh t l qudc te va treng nuflc d u bas kinh t l Vidt Nam nam 2016 chua cd budc dpt phd so vdi nJm 2015 viS tang trudng 6,5 - 6,7%. Cac nhan td quan trpng dam bao cho muc tieu kinh t l vT md nam 2016 id viec cai cdch hdnh chinh, cai thien mdi trudng dau t u kinh doanh vd ndng cao nang luc canh tranh qudc gia nham hpi nhap cd bieu qua vdi TPP, AEC va eac hlep djnh thuong mai tu do (FTA) song phuflng va da phttflng.
Tuy nhidn, thach thttc vdi kinh te Viet Nam nam 2016 se la khdng nhd n i u chfing ta khdng b l l n dttgc nhttng tiem nang thdnh hien thuc, nam bat nhfing co hfli mflt cdch bidu qua. NbOng thach thfic Idn cd t h i k l den: i)Stt hdi phuc cham cila cac ndn kinh te Ifln se anh huftng den xuat khau cfia Vidt Nam; ii)Tang truftng kinh te Vidt Nam cdn dang dua tren tdi nguyen, khai khoang, san pham c h l b i i n sau chtta canh tranh ndn gid trj gia tang va tang truftng chua thttc stt bdn vfing;
iii)Hilu biet vd nam bat thdng tin cfla cdc doanh nghidp, ngudi dan ve hpi nhap TPP, AEC vd tSc dpng cfia hpi nhap tdi nen kinh t l , boat dpng dau tu, kinh doanh chua dfing mfic; iv)Kha nang cong nghd, chat luong san pham, nang Ittc canh tranh cfia doanh nghiep cdn thap anh httdng din kha nang tan dung co hpi cua hpi nhap; v)Nhu cau nhap kha'u nguyen lieu, t h i l t bj va cdng nghd cho san xuat cfln Ifln dan den kha nang
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TAP CHi GIAO DUC LY LUAN - SO 244 (4/2016)nhap sieu tang...
B e thttc hien t h i n g lgi cac muc tidu kinh te vT md trdn day vd hpi nhap hieu qua, can dinh httdng vdo nhttng giai phdp cfl ban sau day:
iWpt la, tang cttflng cae giai phdp dn djnh vT mP, tang cttflng hieu qua didu hdnh tidn te, tai khda va kiem sodt hieu qua lam phat va bao dam cac cdn ddi ldn cua nen kinh te: Can doi mfli md hinh tang truftng, chfi trgng phat t r i i n chidu sau kdt hgp hieu qua phat trien chieu rpng, ddng thfli ndng cao nang suat, cha't ittflng, hidu qua va stte canh tranh cua ca san pham, doanh nghiep vd nen kinh t l . Nang cao bleu qua chinh sach tai khda, CO ca'u lai thu, chi ngdn sdch nhd nudc d l phan da'u xit iy ng dgng, ky luat ngan sach nham giam dan bpi chi, cfl ca'u lai cac khoan vay de ng cong dugc kiem seat. Tai co cau dau tu cflng d l nang cao bleu qua va tap trung ngudn luc dau t u ttt viec cd phan boa vd thoai vdn dau t u ngodi nganh cfia DNNN.
Hai la, can huy dpng vd tao didu kidn tdi da nhttng nd Ittc vd quyet tam cua Nhd nttdc, cfia doanh nghidp vd tttng ngttfli lao dpng Viet Nam trong qua trinh hpi nhap. Day la dieu kien de Viet Nam tan dung dugc co hpi, vugt qua thach thfic.
Hpi nhap vao AEC va TPP se tao cho nen kinh t l , Ittc ittgng lao dpng va doanh nghiep cung nhtt san pham Viet Nam cfl hpi mfli ve md cfia thj trttdng. Cdc rdo can Ifln nba't dan dttgc dS bd gifip cho Stt t u do ludn chuyin lao dpng, hang bda dicb vu, vdn va cdng nghe ky thuat trong qua trinh hpi nhap. Tuy nhien, cung ttt stt hpi nhap sdu rpng dd dat ra khdng it thach thfic vfli ndn kinh t l va ittc Ittgng lao -dpng Viet Nam nhu canh tranh thj trttflng khdc list hon, nen kinh te, ngttdi lao dpng va doanh nghidp phai dtta tren nang luc canh tranh thuc s u de tranh nhfing thua thiet ngay ea ft thj trudng trong nttflc,
Sa la, dac biet quan tam den huy dpng ngudn luc ttt hpi nhap, dac bidt la ngudn vdn cho dau l u va phat trien. Trong thanh tuu cfia qua trinh ddi mfli ft Viet Nam, cdc nhd dau t u nuflc ngodi da trft thanh bp phan khflng thd thieu cua nen kinh t l
Viet Nam, Cung vfli vide md cfia bpi nhap sdu va rflng hfln, vai trfl cfla dau t u nuflc ngoai se cdn tiep tuc tang ldn. Vi vay, can xay dung chidn luge thu hut cdc nha dau tu nttdc ngoai: Xda bd rdo can gitta nhd dau t u nttflc ngoai vdi nhd dau ttt trflng nuflc, hap dan vao cdc ITnh vuc that s u se giup phat trien kinh t l cfia Vidt Nam, tan dung dttflc tinh lan tda, lien k i t cfia cac nhd dau ttt nttdc ngodi vdi nhd dau t u trong nudc phuc vu tdt cho ca muc tieu chung cung nhu Igi Ich cfia cdc nha dau t u trong nudc cung nhu cac nha dau t u nttdc ngoai trong giai doan tdi.
Bdn la, dac bidt quan tam d i n nang luc canh tranh cfia ITnh vttc nflng nghiep - khu vuc cd Igi t h i nhung cdn nhieu ban che va d l tdn thuong trong hpi nhap. D l thuc hidn cac cam k i t trong hpi nhap, mpt trong nhttng ttu tien cua chung ta la ve ndng nghiep ca trong trdng trot va chan nudi gia cam, gia sue va nudi trdng, danh bat thfiy hai san. Hidn tai, Viet Nam cd rat nhieu san pham nong nghiep co lgi thd canh tranh ttt nhien, tuy nhidn, tren thuc te, nang luc canh tranh c i a san pha'm nflng nghiep Viet Nam cdn thua kem nhieu nttflc trong khu vuc. Dac biet, nhieu nuflc trong khu vttc cfl dieu kien gan nhtt Vipt Nam cung cfl nhttng san pham nay va chae chan thj trttflng se cd lua chgn khdc d l thay the k l ca san pham vd dfl'i tdc vd'n la igi t h i cfia nude ta. Vi vay, ngdnh kinh t l mui nhgn cfia Viet Nam nhtt nflng nghiep va du ijch can phai cd tam nhin dai han va chien luge phat trien bai ban. Can phai xac djnh ro rang nhung san pham nong san, du lich ma Viet Nam CO Igi t h i canh tranh dac biet de tap trung dau t u phdt trien nham nang cao nang luc canh tranh thttc s u trdn thj trttdng qudc te.
Nam la, cai each the che la mpt trong ba trong tam ma Dai bpi Dang lan thttXi, Xii da dat ra, ben canh cac dpt pha vd xdy dung cfl sft ha tang, phat trien ngudn nhan luc. Cai each t h i che giai doan 2016-2020 con rat nhieu viec can Idm: Tap trung vao xac dinh ro chttc nang cfia Nha nttdc trong nen kinh te, tranh stt can tbiep true tiep cfia Nha nuflc vao kinh te, tao ra be tho'ng, bp may quan iy
TAP C H i G I A O DUC LY LUAN - SO 244 (4/2016)
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NGHIEN CliU KINH TE
Nha nudc hj$u qua vffl cac tieu chuan, chuan mac cda bg may hanh chinh, bd may quan ly, ke ca each thirc quan ly, dieu hanh, giam sat sir van dgng nen kinh te se phai ti^p can gan hcjn vori th6ng le, chuan muc the gidi de phuc vu su phat tri^n kinh te - xa hgi. Tiep tuc thdc day cat giam thu tuc hanh chinh tao dieu kien thuan Igi nhat cho phat trien san xuat kinh doanh.
Sau la, cai each the che va cai each hanh chinh de thue day san xuat va tieu dung trong nudc, thuc hien hieu qua eac giai phap h6 trd doanh nghiep trong md rgng Ihi trudng tieu thu;
h6 trcf manh me cac doanh nghifp trong d6i mdi cong nghe va nang cao nang Iue lao dgng d ^ tang nang suat va hieu qua trong hgi nhap quoc te nhd tan dung nhOng \d\ the tU TPP, AEC va eac hiep dinh t u do thuong mai dem lai; tang cudng d^o tao nguon nhan luc vci muc tieu n§ng cao ky
nang, nghiep vy cua lao dgng trong nudc nham tao ra dgng luc phat trien cho n^n kinh te.ia
Tdi lieu tham khdo:
1. Chinh phu {2015}, "Nghj quyet so }9INQ-CP n^ay J2/3/20 J5 ve nfiOng nhiem vu, gidi phdp did yeu tiep luc cdt thien moi trudng kinh doanh. ndng caa ndng luc canh tranix quae gia hai ndm 2015 - 2016".
2. Quoc hoi (2015). "Nghi quyet 98/2015/QH13.
ngdy 10/11/2015 ve lie hogch phdt ti'ien kinh te'- xd hot nam 2016"
3. Tdng cue tliong ke (2016). 'Tinh hinh Icinh te- xd hoi 2015", <https:/lwww,gso.go ../?/>
4. Tiling tdm NCSEIF (2015), "Boi cdnh kinh le the gidi 2015-2020". Hd Ndi.
5. Michael G. Plummer. Chia Slow Yue (2009), Realizing the ASEAN Economic Community-A Comprehensive Assessment. Institute of Souikeasl Asian Studies, Singapore;
6- WB (2016). "Global Economic Prospects" 06- 01-2016., <http.!/www.worldbank.org/>.
QUAN LY PHAT TRIEN XAHOI..
fft'ep trang 44) Chl CO nhu vay mdi lam cho quy m5 va mifc do sirphan hoa giau ngheo giam xuong, dieu chinh ducfc mau thuan va xung dot xa hoi. Dieu dang quan tSm trudc mat la phai l§m sao qua trinh thu hoi dat phuc vu CNH,HDH va do thi hoa phai duoc giai quy^t phCi hcJp h"ong su di^u hda lai fch cua Nha nudc, ngudi ndng dan mat dat, nha doanh nghifep va nha quan ly di nhOng tang trudng ve kinh te - xa hpi gan lien vdi phat tri^n x§ hdi ben vUng.
Thi^f hai, vdi van de dan so, lao 6ong, viec lam.
Chung ta phai xay dung lai chien Iugc dan sd, lao dpng va vi$c lam phiJ hgp. Trong do phai tiep tyc thuc hien chie'n lucfc Dan sd Ke hoach hoa gia dinh va Dan sd' - phat tnln, tiep tyc kiem soat miJc sinh va nang cao chat luong dan sd. Tren co sd nay then khai thuc hien ke hoach qudc gia ve lao dpng, viec lam. Chu y giai quygt vi§c lam cho ca ngudi dan cf thanh thj va ndng thdn. Tan dung thdi co dan sd vang de phat triin san xuat, giai quy§'t cac van de xa hpi, thuc hien phat trien xa hpi va quan ly phat triin xa hoi b^n vUng.
ThiJr ba, van de an sinh xa hoi. Giai doan tU nay den nam 2020 se la Ihdi ky day manh CNH.HDH va d6 thj hda d Vi§t Nam. Do vay, giai quyet van d^ an
sinh xa hpi phai chti y thuc hien tdt chinh sach bao hilm y \6 va bao hilm xa hpi cho toan dan. Phai lam sao thuc hien ca chfnh sach bao hilm y te, bao hiem xa hpi tu nguyen va bat bupc. Dam bao den nam 2020, phan ddng dan cu cua Viet Nam phai ducrc tham gia bao hilm y te va bao hilm xa hpi dudi nhOng hinh thdc thich hop.
Th& tif, van de moi trwdng. Bao v^ mdi trudng ttr nhien va moi trudng xa hpi trong dieu kien day nhanh qua trinh CNH,HDH va dd thi hda la van de h^t siJc quan trong. De lam tdt vide nay, cac co quan quan ly nha nudc phai xdy dung, hoan chfnh va ban hanh he thdng cdc van ban luat sat hup, ddng thiS phai kilm tra, giam sat, xO ly nghidm nhdng trudng hgp vi pham.
Ngoai ra, d l bao ve tdt mdi trudng xa hdi, can phai xem xet, djnh hudng nhOng gia tri, chuan muc xa hfli.
Cy the hoa tdi da he gia tri, chuan muc nay trong h^
thdng luat phap qudc gia, cac van ban dudi luat va nhdng quy chuan xa hpi khae cda cac epng dong d§n cu. Tren co sd nay Nha nudc cCing epng ddng dau tranh ngan ngUa nhflng hanh vi sai lech xa hpi, tpi pham, td nan xa hpi, xdy dung epng dong van hoa lanh manh, an toan.lS]
