J*11.M
t ^ KHOA HQC VA CONG NGHE
UNG DUNG MO HlNH TOAN OE DU BAO SONG VUNG VEN BIEN
Song ven bd vd nu&c dang do bao id nhung hiin tirdng vat ly khd nguy hiim cho khu vuc ven bd, nhdt Id trong trudng hop co bdo dd bd. Song co the gay xoi Id bd, phd hiiy cdng trinh bd, ldm biin ddi dia hinh bd biin. Trong dieu kien sdng ldn, giao thdng trin biin rdi nguy hiim, nhdi Id ddi v&i ngu dan su dung phuffng tiin tdu thuyin nhd.
Thua Thiin Hui Id mot khu vuc thudng chiu tdc dong cua song, nudc ddng bao, khi bao dd bd cd thi gay u nu&c IU trong dam, gay ngap lut cho khu vtfc dat thap ven biin, ven ddm phd. Tru&c thuc trgng do, di xay dvrng mpt he thdng cdc chudng trinh tinh todn cdc dir bdo duac sdng ven bd, nu&c dang bao vd dua ra bdn do nguy ca ngdp lut do nu&c dang bdo khi co bao dd bg theo mpt sd kich bdn Id viic ldm cdn thiet, nham cung cap nhirng thdng tin canh bdo an todn cho ngu&i dan ven biin cUng nhu nhirng hoat ddng kinh ti dan sinh khu vuc ven biin chiu tdc ddng cua bdo.
Thuan An va Tu Hien. Diy la khu virc phiic tap cd nhieu con, viing dat thap xung quanh dim. Bd biln ddi mat thang vdi bien md nen chju tic ddng true tiep ttr cac qua trinh dgng lire bien nhu sdng, thiiy trieu, bao bien.
Muc tieu de ra ciia de tai la img dung md hinh sd tri d l du bao dugc sdng va nudc ding do bao trudc 24 gid din 36 gid cho viing
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De tai "Nghien ciiu iing dung md hinh toin de du bio sdng ven bien tinh Thira Thien Hue" do Vien Nghien cihi quin ly Bien va Hii dao chll tri vi PGS, TS Phiing Dang Hilu lim chii nhiem da dugc triln khai thuc hien, theo dd da thu thap mdt sd lugng sd lieu dja hinh, khi tugng thiiy van va true tiep khao sat do dac cic yeu td sdng, muc nudc, ddng chiy... Khu vuc nghien ciiu li khu vuc ven bd tinh Thira Thien Hue vdi die diem cd he dim phi dai chay dgc bd bien, hai cira thdng ra biln la
ven bien nham phdng trinh giam nhe thien tai va phuc vu phat trien kinh te-xa hdi, qua dd bd sung dugc sd lieu dieu tra ca bin va quy luat ve cac yeu td hii van tai cac diem nghien ciiu. De thirc hien cic muc tieu dat ra, nhdm tie gia da thuc hien 6 ngi dung chinh, dd l i nghien ciiu iing dung md hinh khi tugng WRF (Weather Reseach and Forecast) du bio trudng khi tucmg cho khu vuc ven bd; nghien ciiu iing dung md hinh du bao sdng ngoai khoi v i ven bd de dir bao sdi^
BAN TIN KHOA HQC VA C 6 N G N G H £ TINH THITA THIEN HUE, 6/2013
KHOA HQC VA CONG NGHE
cho khu virc ven bd; nghien ciiu phit triln va la 76kni/h, tuong duong vdi cip 9, manh ling dung mo hinh dir bao nudc dang do bao nhit cd the len tdi cap i 3 . Theo tinh toan thi tinh toan va du bao nudc dang do bao va cac cii 10 nam se xuat hien bao cap 10 va 20 VLing ngap lut do nudc dang gay ra; thu thip, nam mdi cd bao cip 12. Tu nam 1985 din dieu tra quan trac bo sung dir lieu v l cic ylu 2009 (25 nam) mdi xuat hien 2 can bao to khi tugng hai van khu vuc ven bd; thilt Celci va Ketsana anh hudng true tiep vdi siic lap bin do ngap lut do nudc dang bao cho
khu vuc ven bd ti Ie 1:25000; hoan thien va chuyen giao quy trinh cdng nghe du bio khi tugng, sdng, nudc dang do bao cho khu vuc ven bd cho Trung tim Khi tugng Thiiy van tinh Thira Thien Hue.
Khu vuc ven bien Thira Thien Hul cd bd bien dii vdi he dam phi chay song song phia trong khoing 70km. Miia mua bao d day bat diu tir thing 5 va ket thuc vao thing 11 hang nim, trong dd thing 9 chiem tin suit cao nhit vdi 31%, sau dd din thing 10 chiem 19%, cdn lai cac thing chilm tir 9,4 den 12,5%. Trung binh nam cd 0,6 con bao anh hudng true tiep den Thira Thien Hue, nam nhieu bao nhit la 3 con, tin suit khdng cd bao chiem tren 50%. Tdc do bao trung binh
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So* do lien ket ti| thong m^y ti'nh tinh to^n
gid manh cap 10-11.
Viec ling dung cic md hinh toin du bao trudng khi tugng, sdng, thuy trieu va nudc ding bao cho khu vuc Thira Thien Hue dugc thuc hien thanh quy trinh cdng nghe van hanh don giin, thuan tien cho ngudi sii dung.
Dac diem ciia quy trinh la sii dung mdt he may ti'nh bd tinh toan song song tren he dieu hanh Linux md ket hgp vdi he dieu hinh Windows de tinh toin, xii ly ket qui.
Theo nhdm tic gii, md hinh tinh toin WRF du bio trudng khi tugng lam dau vao cho cac md hinh tinh sdng, nudc dang bao.
Day la md hinh tinh toin cd do tin cay tot nhit hien nay vi dang dugc cic nudc tien lien sii dung trong cdng tie du bao nghiep vu. Ket qui nghien ciiu cho thiy, viec ti'nh toin kiem nghiem md hinh du bao sdng ven bd trong cac trudng hgp bao do bg la rat khd khan do sd lieu do dac sdng trong bao la rat hiem. Do dd sdng du bao ven bd cho cic can bao dugc thuc hien vdi md hinh sdng ket hgp giira WAM (dir bao ngoai khoi) vi SWAN (du bio ven bd) sir dung trudng gid, ap du bio khdi phuc tir md hinh WRF.
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BAN TIN KHOA HQC VA C 6 N G NGHf TJNH THlfA THIEN HUE, 6/2013
KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE
Tir thuc te xay ra ciia cic con bao, nhdm thirc hien de tai da xay dung ban dd nguy ca ngap lut do nudc ding bao. Vdi dja the khu vuc ven bd Thira Thien Hue co bd hudng Tay Bac-Ddng Nam, do do khi bao dd bg vao khu vuc phia nam ciia tinh se cd kha nang gay nudc dang nguy hiem cho ven bd Thira Thien Hue hon li bao do bg vao phia bac ciia tinh.
Tren thuc te cic con bao manh gin day dd bg vao Da Nang, Quang Nam deu gay ra nudc ding va ngap lut cho Thira Thien Hue nhu con bao Ketsana (2009), Xangsane <2006) va day ciing li hai trong sd nhihig con bao manh gay ngap lut cho khu vuc ven bd Thira Thien Hue.
Vi vay, de tinh toan ngap lut, nudc ding bao theo kich ban nham xay dung ban dd nguy co ngap lut do nudc ding bao can Iua chgn nhimg con bao cd tir^ chit gay ngap lut lich sii cho khu vuc.
Cd hai cich de lira chgn kich ban, thii nhit, tir lich sir bao qua khii dd bd se xiy dung dugc con bao manh theo tin suit xuat hien, thur hai sir dung con bao manh qua khii da giy ngap lich sii de xay dung kich bin. Dac diem cua each nay la cd dudng di bao thuc, trudng gid, ap khi thuc, do do tinh toin se sit vdi thuc te ban. Ket qua ngap liit cung cho ra biic tranh tdng the ve tac ddng ciia can bao manh qui khir do den vdi khu vuc nghien ciiu. Vi vay, cich thii hai dugc tic gia lira chgn de xay dung kich bah. Cac con bao dugc sir dung trong kich bin la bao Xangsane (2006) v i Ketsana (2009). Bin do ngap lut dugc tinh toan dua tren viec md phdng lai cic con bao nay d l dua ra birc tranh nguy co ngap lut dudi tic ddng ciia bao manh.
De tii da hoin thinh cic ndi dung cong viec va san phim chinh da chuyin giao cho Trung tim Khi tugng thuy van tinh Thira
Thien Hue. Chuang trinh may tinh xay dung nhim du bao nudc ding bao ket hgp vdi thiiy trieu da dugc hieu chinh cho md phdng trieu toan bien Ddng va kiem nghiem cho cac tnrdng hgp md phdng niidc dang bao cu the khic. Dac biet tinh toan kiem nghigm da dirge thuc hien vdi chuoi sd lieu khio sat cho kit qui tdt. Quy trinh tinh toan va hudng sii;
dung bd chuang trinh tinh toan du bio kbi tugng, sdng, nudc ding bao da dugc hoan chinb va cd ndi dung ngan ggn, de sir dung.
Cac ket qua tinh toan dugc dira ra lien ket vdi phin mem dd hga d6 ding hien thi va lap bio eio, cho phep ngudi dung thirc hien vdi thao tic it nhat. Ban dd nguy ca ngip lut do nudc ding bao dugc xiy dung dua tren hai con bao qui khii cd tac dgng ldn den khu vuc Thiia Thien Hue. Tuy nhien, tii nghien ciru cua dl tai cho thay viec tinh toin ngap lut do nudc dang bao m i khdng tinh den lu do mua ldn sB lim ket qui khic nhieu vdi thuc te. Dieu nay ciing cho thiy tac ddng ngip lut d khu vuc Thiia Thien Hue chii yeu do mua lu dd ve, nudc dang bao chi cd tac ddng cdng hudng ngan cin thoit lu va lim gia tang ngap lut cho khu vuc phia trong dam pha.
Qua nhirng ket qui nghien cim cua de tii, nhdm tic gia da cd nhirng khuyen nghi la can cd nhung nghien ciiu tiep ve nhimg tinh toin ngip lut do nudc dang bao ket hgp vdi lu do mua do ve khu vuc dim pha di cd thl xay dung dugc bin dd nguy ca ngap lut cho khu vuc ven bien tinh Thira Thien Hul thuc te ban, gdp phan cung cip thdng. tin diing, quan trgng cho cdng tac quin ly nha nudc cua tinh.
Dieu Ha
