Hoi Dia ly Viet Nam Dai hoc Thii NguyEn XAY DlTNG P H A N MEM RA QUYET D3NH PHVC VU CANH BAG SdM TAI BE&N
LU QUET VA T R U Q T LCT DAT Cf VUNG NU!, THtJ" NGHlEM TAI BAC KAN Nguyin Ngoc Thgch^, Phgm Xuan Cinh', Le Nhu Nga", Nguyin Dinh Tii\ Vu Dang Cudng*
Abstract
Establishing dss software for early warning landslide, flash flood hazardsapplied in Bac Kan province, VietNam
Landslide and flash flood hazards are two most dangerous and implicit hazards m any mountainous region The model for early warning system of landslide and flash flood hazards is established with the concept of geomorphology and basin hydrology and that the hazards will occur at place with both high implicit potential and high rainfall. In the model, different parameters of each basin are asseseed based on the specialist and semi quantitative methods (Thomas Saaty - Analytic Hierarchy Process - AHP) to establish the implicit hazard map. The software is programmed based on the ArcGIS Engine technology, a GIS product of the ESRI. With the GIS spatial analysis tool, forecasted rainfall at the gauging stations will be quickly interpolated to produce a rainfall continuous layer for whole region and then ovelayed with the other implicit potential hazard layers to create an early hazard warning map. The software has been applied for processing and early warning landslide, flash flood hazards in Bac Kan province. Vietnam for purpose of reducing lost due to these hazards.
I.DATVANDE
He thong hd tra ra quyit $nh (Decision Support System - DSS) dupe hiiu la mdt he thong miy tinh v i phan mem cd tiie xu ly linh boat hp th6ng ca sd dii lieu nhim dua ra cic kit qua khac nhau, til' do cd the so sanh de lya chpn nhung quit djnh phii hpp cho mpt myc tieu nhat djnh ciia ngudi dieu hinh [3, 4]. Nhu vay, DSS l i mdt khii niem chung dupe sii dung cho nhiiu linh vyc khac nhau, tiong dd, cdng nghe thdng tin va co sd dii lieu cd vai trd la nen tang cua he thong.
Trong qua trinh xii ly thdng tin, ung vdi cac dir lieu dau vao gii dinh, h? thong se dua la cic kjch b i n khir. nh;iii Ae. chn noirm dipii hnnli lim r-Vinn \i^ Atri rt n»i>a<- ;4ink XTI^.. ,.,A., «A<- •.;; 4.i.i^., D^^
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dij ly gioi han hoac Idiong gian mo rong. Cau tnic cua mpt hp thong DSS bao gom 3 hpp phan: «t sd dir lipu, mo hinh va phan mem.
Trong viec phong ttanh thiet hji do tai bien truot 16 va lu quel, yeu d u c\ia DSS la phai nhanh chong xac dinh duac nhung vi tri c6 kha nang xiy la tai bien ling voi Incjng mua gii ffinh nao do, tir do ngum quan ly co the dua ra nhimg quyet dinh phu hgrp trong viec triin khai cong tac phong chong tai bien, truac khi tai bien xay ra.
Da sii dyng DSS mo phong thu tai bien lu quel, lu ong doi vori 2 tran mua Hch si tCr nam 1961 den nam 2010 xay ta tai huyen Ngan Son voi luqmg mua ngay 259.9mm vao thang 6 nam 1971 (hinh 12a) va 2) xay ra tiu TX. BSc Kan - 304.9mm vao thang 6 nam 1973 (hinh 12d). Ket qua mo phong dua ra a hinh 12b, 12c, I2e va 12f.
2. MO MNH HE THONG X A Y D I T N G KJCH B A N D V BAO TAI BIEN LU QUET vA TRUOT L O DAT 0 VUNG NUI
Nghien cihi lu ong, lii quet
• /*-^[™S "?'"™ "™ J^y ^'!"' * 9 n "HO hinh thuy van luu vuc, voi tiep c|n gian t i p , nghiSn cuu/itenh gia cac thong so mjt dem trong mo hinh can bSng nuoc. Theo mo hinh, lu ong va lu quet se la ket qui pHan phoi ciia luijng mua theo luu vuc (hinh 1). Trong qui trinh do, moi don vi cua tiing lop ttiong tin se CO vai tro khac nhau trong qua trinh can bjng nuoc. Kha nang do se duoc a) the hoa bang thang diem danh gia (tit 1-5 muc) theo phuong phap chuyin gia hoac ban dinh lupng
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H^i Dia ly Viet Nam Daii hpc Thii Nguygn [1]. Moi Idp thdng tin se cd vai tro (trpng so) khic nhau trong qua trinh do. Lop thdng tin rat quan trong cua luu vuc v i cd trong so cao dd la he so tich tu ddng chiy (hay he s6 am udt - ivetness index) (hinh 2f).
Tiiy theo ti Ie bin dd nghien ciiu m i so lupng cac Idp thdng tin khac duoc xem xet dinh gia se khac nhau. Trong nghien ciiu nay, ddi vdi tile nghien cim 1,100.000 cho cip tinh, cac lap thdng tin dua vao danh gii bao gdm- lupng mua cue dai trung binh nhieu nam (MuaMax), luong mua du bio theo con (MuaDB), he so am udt (AmUot) do d6c cua phu luu (DocLV), dia mao (DiaMao), vd phong hda (VoPhHoa), rimg (Rung - ho^c thay bang chi so NDVI phan tich tu anh ve tmh Landsat) (hinh 2).
Hinh I. Md hinh nghiin cim lU quit theo luu vuc
a) Danh gid lupng mua cifc dai trung binh nhieu ndm
b) Danh gid dd ddc trung binh luu vuc
c) Danh gia vophonghoa
e) Danh gid Idp phu rimg J) Ddnh gid lich /JJ dong chay (chi s6 dm udt -wetnees index)
g) Lugng mua gid dinh (dir bao)
Hinh 2. Cdc Idp thdng tin danh gid nguy ca Hi dng, lu quet Ham tinh toin cho md hinh dy bio lii ong, lu quet duac cy the hda nhu sau:
Nguy c0tiimdn = l/Il (3*(AmUot) + 3*(MuaMxc) + 2*(DocLV) + 2*(Fimg) + 1 *( VoPhHoa)).
Ky yiu Hpi nghi Khoa hgc Dia ly toan qudc Idn tha 7
Hoi Dia ly ViSt Nam Dili hpc Thai Nguyen Nguy ca du bdo lU ong. lu quel = % ( 3*(MuaDB) + I *(Nguy ca tiem an))
Da sii dung md hinh du bao nay de md phdng thii tai biin lu quet va IQ ong doi vdi 2 tran mua Ijch sir va cho kit qua d hinh I2b va 12e.
Khi so sinh vdi cic so lieu v i vi tri cic diem xiy ra lu quet tiong qua khii tir nam 2000 tdi nay, cd sy phu hop giua thuc te va du bao. Ngay tai mot ddng suoi, cung cd nhieu vj tri cd nguy ca IG quet khac nhau, dieu dd duoc giii thich la do anh hudng ciia cic thdng so khic nhau cua mat dem.
Nghien ciru trirol Iff
Trong md hinh trugt Id ciia nghien ciiu nay, cac tham so ve lyc tren sydn d6e dupe phan tich tinh de bi tdn thuong ciia cic mat doc dinh gia giin tiep thdng qua cac tham so cua ciu thanh ciia mat doc, dd li dp doc dia hinh, Idp vd phong hda, thinh phan v i thi nim cua di, Idp phu rung, miic dp chiia nude,. . [5,6, 7]
Hinh 3. Md hinh nghien ciiu truat Id tong hgp theo luu vuc
Vdi tiep can gian tiep, d ti 16 1: 100.000, cac lap thdng tm phyc vy eho nghien ciiu tiiipt Id duac cy the hda nhu sau:
- Xay dyng bin do nguy co trupt Id tiim an dua tren cac Idp thdng tin: dp d6c dja hinh (DoDoc), dia mgo (DiaMao), Idp phu rimg (Rung), vd phong hda (VoPhHoa), miie dd chiia nude ngim (NuoeNgam), tiiEich hpc (ThachHoc), mat dp diit gay (DutGay), m§t dp sdng su6i (SongSuPi), khoang eich den dudng giao thdng (GiaoTTiong), lupng mua eye dai trung bmh nhieu nam (MuaMax) (hmh 4). Cic lop thdng tin dupe danh gii theo phuang p h ^ chuyen gia, phan chia thanh eic miic nhay cam khic nhau doi vdi tai bien tmgt Id (5 miic). Kit qui tich hpp tiidng tin cho ra cic ban do kit qui la bin do nguy co trupt Id tiem an:
Nguy ca truat Id tiim dn = I/5*(DoDoc + ThachHoc + DiaMao + Rung + VoPhHoa + NuoeNgam + DutGay + SongSuoi + GiaoThong)
^ - Xay dyng ban d6 dy bap trupt Id theo lupng mua gia dinh: la san pham tich hpp giira bin do nguy CO truot Idtiim an ya lupng mua dy bio (MuaDB). Nhu vay, vdi lupng mua dy bap khac nhau thi lai bien se xiy ra khac nhau vi mire do va khac nhau ve vi tri khdng gian, san phim tieh hpp li bin do dy bip (hmh 5)-
Nguy ca truat du bdo= Nguy ca truat la tiim dn + MuaDB
Nhu vay,^ trpng c ^ md hinh ndi tren, lupng mua dy bao la lap thdng tin quan tipng nhat (hinh 5b), la dieu kien can tfiiit de t?io nen cac kjeh ban khac nhau (hinh 5), Da su dung md hinh dy bao niy de md phdng tiiir tai bien trupt Id vdi 2 trgn mua Ijch su va ket qui chi ra d hinh 12c v i 12f
Kyyiu Hpi nghi Khoa hgcDia Ip todn qudc Idn Au 7
Hoi Dia ly. Viet Nam Dai hot Thai Nguygn
a) Do doc
d) Oia chat
b) M a t d p song suoi
e) Dia mao
c) V o p h o n g h o a
f ) Ldp p h u t h i f c v a t
g) Mat d o d u t gay h ) T h o n h i r 5 n g i) Buffer giao t h d n g Hinh 4 Cdc lap thdng tin danh gid cho mo hinh du bdo truat Id
a) Nguy ca tiim dn b) Luang mua gia dinh c) Nguy co d\c bdo Hinh 5. Minh hoa chojno hinh vd kit qua du bdo truat Id
3. HE T H ( 5 N G H O T R O RA QUY^T DINH TRONG QUAN L V TAI BIEN Qui trinh xii ly va tmyen thdng tin nhanh chdng dupe thyc hien bing he th6ng ho tip ra quyet dinh. He thong nay bao gom co sd dii lieu, phan mem phan tich va xii ly thdng tm, trang Web-GIS quin ly va cung cap thdng tin tdi cdng chiing. Md hinh tong quit v i tinh ning chinh cua H§ thong dupe the hien d hmh 6.
Kpyiu Hpi nghi Khoa hgc Dja Ip todn qudc Idn thu 7
Hgi Dia ly Viet Nam Dai hpc Thii Nguygn
Phsn m e m GiS chiiy^'"
j u i g kh?^ i n e i ck,n) • Quan ly lai bi6n
^ ( • L - R B quyet djnh MiLM -ChuyengiaFdiantich
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Hinh 6. Md hinh tdng qudt vd tinh ndng chinh cua DSS qudn Ip tai biin Cff sd du lieu
Vdi hai md hinh lii ong, lii quet va trupt Id neu tren, ca sd du lieu sS dupe dimg chung, bao gom cac Idp thdng tin dja ly dupe xay dyng tiieo chuan ISO/TC 211 [8], sii dyng edng nghe Geodatabase cua ESRI [9] bao g6m cic Idp (cau tnic cac Idp thdng tin GIS dupe md t i tiong hinh 7):
Dja hinh; lupng mua du bio theo cic tram; Dudng giao thdng; Dia chit; Dia mao; Sdng su6i; Luu vue v i phy luu; Ldp phu rimg; vd phong hda, tai bien (lii quet, trupt Id).
Luong mua cue dai trung binh nhieu nam;
Hien trang tai bien trupt Id (sii dung de tinh toin va kiem chiing ket qui)
Hinh 7. Md hinh cdc lap thong tin trong Ca sd da liiu GIS qudn Ip tai biin thiin nhiin Kyyiu Hpi nghi Khoa hgc Dia Ip todn qudc Idn thu 7
H6i Dia ly Vi^t Nam Dai hoc Thai Nguyen Phan m^m Quao ly tai bl^n (QLTB)
a) Nguyen ly xdy dung phdn mim
Phan mem dupe xay dyng dya tren nen thu vien GIS ciia ArcGIS Engine 9 3 [2] v i ngdn ngii lap trinh Visual Csharp ( C#) [lOJ. Ngdn ngii C# la mpt ngdn ngu dupe din xuit tir C vi C-H- do Microsoft thye hien, nd duoc t^o tir nen tang trong C vi C-H- va phat trien ban bing viec them vao nhiing die tinh mdi de lam cho ngdn ngu nay de su dyng hem. Nhieu trong so nhiing die tinh nay kha giong vdi nhiing dae tinh cd trong ngdn ngii Java.
Khi so sanh ngdn ngu C# vdi nhiing ngdn ngii khic nhu Visual Basic, C-H- v i Java, Microsoft cho thay C^ mang den siic manh cua ngdn ngir C-H- SO vdi su de dang ciia ngdn ngii Visual Basic [10].
ArcEngine la sin pham da dupe ESRI cdng bo, l i bd cdng cy phim mem d6 xay dyng cic phan mem GIS hoan chinh ddc lap hoic cd the dupe diing de nhiing cic ham GIS vao cic ling dyng CO san khac.
b) T6 chiec va hoat dong cua phdn mim
Phan mim quan ly tai biin chay ddc \^ tren PC 32 bit, tren nin Windows ciia Microsoft va dupe to chiic don gian vdi cac chire nang chinh l i :
+ Quin ly CSDL tiieo chuan ESRI;
+ Xir ly khdng gian: ndi suy lupng mua, tinh toin, xu ly, tich hop cac ldp thdng tin di xay dyng Idp nguy co tai bien theo md hinh, th6ng ke.
+ Xay dyng kich ban dy bao, xuit dii lieu dang ban do va so lieu.
Phan mim vdi cic chiic nang t^o cic bin d6 tai biin theo cac kich bin khic nhau. Phan mim hien thj khi than thipn vdi I8nh dupe Viet hda. Giao dipn chinh cua Phin mim dupe md ta tiong hinhS
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Hinh 8. Giao diin chinh ciia Phdn mem Kpyeu Hdi nghi Khoa hgc Dia Ip todn qudc Idn tha 7
Hoi Dia ly Viet Nam D$i hpc Thii Nguygn Module nhj^ v i bd sung dii lieu
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Hinh 9 Chinh sica bd sung luong mua Hinh 10. Chinh sOa, bd sung lugng mua theo tram dang bang theo trgm dgng diem Dir lieu luong mua thay doi theo thdi gian. Module niy cd nhiem vy cap nhgt, chinh siia dir lieu lupmg mua Vi dy ve chiic ning niy dua ra trong hinh 9 va 10
Module qudn Ip ca sd dit hiu
Toan bd co sd du lieu cic Idp gay ra tai bien duoc luu dudi d^ng Raster (Grid); co sd dii lieu luang mua luu d dang diem (Shapefile). Toan bp ca sd dir heu niy dupe luu trong thu myc Data cua phin mim. Phan mem md CSDL tir file MXD (nhu ArcGIS) va hien thi tren bin d6.
Module xu ly tich hap thdng tin. xdy dung cdc kich bdn
Khi lupng mua thay doi thi ban do tai bien can thay doi theo, Vdi moi !o^ tai biin khac nhau thi ldp dii lieu nguy co tai bien tiem an cung se khac nhau vi h§ s6 a, b ciing khac nhau. Kit qui xii ly CO the la ket qui tinh toan th6ng ke hoic dang bin do Module xii ly tich hpp thdng tin, xay dyng cac kich ban dupe minh hpa tiong hinh 11
/ Lirmgniiralhso / - y loch lan (dybao) /
/ Igi cac tram (Poinl) /
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Hinh II. Md hinh xu ly. tich hop thdng tin vd xdy difng Iqch ban tai biin cua Phdn mim
Ky yiu Hpi nghi Khoa hgc Dia Ip todn qudc Idn tha 7 i
H6i Dia ly Viet Nam D^i hpc Thai Nguyen
a) Mua theo kich bdn 1 b) LU theo kich bdn 1 c) Truat Id theo kich bdn 1
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f) Truat Id theo kich bdn 2 d) Mua theo kich bdn 2 ej LS theo kich bdn 2
Hinh 12. Minh hga kit qua xu ly lit vd truat Id theo Iqch bdn mua khac nhau tgi Bdc Kgn Module xudt da liiu
Kit qui xii ly, phan tich cd tiie xuat ra dang bin do hoac dang bing th6ng kg theo cac nhu cau sir dyng nhu d hinh 13 v i 14,
Hinh 13. Kit qud cua phdn mim d dgng bdn dd Hinh 14. Kit qud cua phdn mem d dgng bdng thdng ki
Trang WebGIS Quan ly tai bien
Vdi myc dich pho bien v i canh bao tdi edng chiing nhanh va hieu qui, bin do dy bao tai bien 10 quet va tnipt Id s€ ngay tiic thi dupe upload len intemet. Hp thong tien hinh gia lip cic may chij cung cap du lipu dudi djnh dgng th6ng nhat, dong thdi xay dyng ung dyng tray c ^ , tich hpp cac dir lieu tir cac may chi nay di tao bin do quin ly thdng tin tai bien thien nhign cho ngudi dime
Kpyiu Hpi nghi Khoa hgc Dia Iptodn qudc Idn tha 7 K i l l
H6i Dja ly Viet Nam Dai hpc Thai Nguygn (hinh 6) Dong tiidi, ngdn ngu lap trinh web ma nguon md PHP [11] dupe sd dyng de phit trien giao dien v i cac cdng cu. Dii lieu thupc tinh duae luu tru va quan ly bd hg quin tn co sd dii lieu ma nguon md MYSQL [12]. Dii lieu khdng gian dupe luu trong Shapfile. Cdng nghe web-based GIS sir dyng phin mim ma ngudn md M^Server [13]. He tiiong dupe tiiiet ke vdi 3 tang khac nhau nhu hinh 15.
Client Layer
Application Layer
May tinh ca nhan Trinh duyet W e b
V
W e b Server W e b Form + MapServer
Data Layer
Z~^
CSDL
Hinh 15. Md td 3 tdng trong thiet ki kiin triic da trang web qudn Ip tai biin Cdng nghe GIS tren nin web quan ly thdng tin tai biin thien nhien nhim din ngudi su dyng l i nhung ngudi truy cap web binh thudng, khdng ddi hdi cd kien thuc nhieu ve linh vyc GIS. Vi the, he th6ng dupe xay dung dya tren kien tnic Client - Server vdi Thin client v i Tliick server nhu hinh 15:
Tang Client: thyc hien nhiem vu xu ly cac thao tic, luu tru thdng tin ling vdi timg ngudi sii dung, dam nh§n vai tid trang gian, truyen/nhan du lieu giiia ngudi sii dyng vdi web server
Tang ling dyng: chia lim 2 phan: WebForm v i M^Server. C i hai deu dupe phat triin dya tien PHP [11].
WebForm; dam nhan trach nhiem phat sinh giao dipn va cic doan script di tuong tie vdi client, ddng vai tid tnmg gian giua client va MapServer, nd se giii ySu cau cua client tdi MapServer vi nhan du lieu tra ve de gui tra l^i cho client.
Ma^Se"iWr:"^xu:Ty cictiiao t i c v i bin d6: sinh ra bin d6, phdng to, thu nhd, djch chuyen cac hudng, tra ciiu thdng tin tren bin d6,... Nd la thanh phan tnmg gian giua WebForm va tang eo sd du lieu, tiep nhan yeu cau tir WebFoim roi gpi xuong tang cp sd dii lieu de chiet xuat thdng tin sau dd tien hanh xu ly roi tri lai ket qui ve cho WebForm.
Tang CO sd dii heu: ddng vai tro tnmg gian giua tang ling dung vdi co sd dir lieu.
Vi dy minh hpa giao dien cua trang web quin ly tai bien tinh Bic Kgn dua ra d hmh 16.
Kp yiu Hpi nghi Khoa hgc Dia Ip tgdn qudc idn thit 7
Hoi Dia ly Viit Nam D^i hpc Thai Nguyen
Hinh 16. Giao diin ciia trang web qudn ly tai biin tinh Bdc Kgn KET LUAN CHUNG
Do thyc te khich quan ludn cd nhiiu biin ddng, nhieu kjch bin can phai udc tinh v i du bao mi he thong ho tra ra quyet dinh da v i dang dupe quan tam phit trien va ling dyng trong nhieu nganh, nhieu lmh vuc khic nhau.
Trong quin ly tai bien mpt he thong DSS cd the la mpt phan mem tich hpp duy nhat, song ciing cd the bao gom nhiiu phan mem boat ddng theo cac cdng doan chuyen biet khac nhau. Tuy nhien, chiing phii dap ling duoc hai chiic nang co ban la: xu ly nhanh thdng tin tiieo kich bin, cung cap v i trayen thdng tin nhanh ve vj tri cd the xiy ra tai bien cho nhiing ngudi quan tam, tiong dd cd nhung ngudi cd trach nhiem ra quyet djnh ling xu khi tai bien xiy ra hoac s ^ xay ra. Viec phat trien he thong DSS can thiet di theo ca hai hudng cdng nghp va hudng ling dyng, Sy ph6i hop chjt che v i bo sung giiia hai hudng l i mdt ddi hdi khach quan nham ciing co, hoin thien de dua ra nhiing he thong mgnh. Dd chinh la sy lien ket hpp tic da nginh, da ITnh vyc, Ii mpt xu thi tat yeu tiong qui trinh p h i t ^ e n ^
He th6ng da dupe su dyng de xay dung bin dp nguy eo tai biin lu ong, lii quet va traot Id cho tinh Bic Kan va ket qui so sinh vdi cac tai bien trong qua khii la khi tot. Da chuyen giao thanh cdng Hp thong cho tinh Bic Kan va chay thir cho 2 tran mua Ijch sd tgi huyen Ngan San va thi xa Bic Kgn cho kit qui khi hpp ly.
Kyyeu Hgi nghi Khoa hgc Dia Ip todn qudc Idn tha 7
Hoi Dia ly Viet Nam Dai hoc Thai Nguygn
T A I L I E U T H A M KHAO
1, Henk G. Sol et al, Expeit systems and artificial intelligence m decision support systems:
proceedings of the Second Mini Euroeonference, Lunteren, TTie Netherlands, 17-20 November 1985, Springer, ISBN 90-277-2437-7 (1987) 1-2
2. ESRI, ArcGIS Engine, www.esri.eom/soflware/arcgis/arcgisengine.
3.Efiaim Turban, Jay E. Aronson, Ting-Peng Liang, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, (2008) 574.
4. Power, D. J., Decision support systems: concepts and resources for managers, Westport, Conn., Quoram Books, 2002.
5 Geological Survey, Ma^ Showing Landslides and Areas Most Susceptible to Sliding in Beaver County, Pennsylvania, U.S, Geological Survey Miscellaneous Investigations Series Map l- 1160, Reston, Virginia: U.S., 1979.
6. Tran Manh Liiu, Co sd tiip can he thong va dinh gii dy bao tong hpp tai biin dja chat, Tap chi Dja ky tiiugt, so 2 (2007).
7 UNESCO, Landslide Ha2ard Zonation: A Review of Principles and Practices, UNESCO Natural Hazards Series No 3, Paris, 1985.
8 ISO/TC 211, ISOn'C 211 Geographic information/Geomatics, www.isotc211.org 9. ESRI, AreGlS 9.3 - Building Geodatabases Tutorial, USA, 2008.
10. Microsoft, Introduction to the C# Language and the .NET Framework, http.//msdn.microsofl:.com/library/z 1 zx9t92.
11. PHP, What IS PHP?, www.php.net.
12. MySQL, www.mysql.cam.
13. MapSever, http://m^server.org.
Kp yeu Hot nghi Khoa hoc Dia Ip todn qudc Idn tha 7
