TIEN TRINH HOI NHAP
N G U Y E N DUY N G H T A
Cac Xue tien ttiaong mai. Bo Cong Thaong
K
hi khole h i n h trang cung vdi ca nddc tien vao chang dddng ddi mdi, nen ngoai thadng Viet Nam da chap nhan bddc v I o Id trinh hdi nhap qudc te. Tren thpe te, tQ khi bat dau budn b i n qude te, giao thQdng vdi c l e nen kinh te ngoai lanh thd qude gia, cd the coi nen ngoai thddng da hdi n h | p qude te.Tuy nhien, do phu thupc vao bao cap qudc te, chu yeu ehi I I quan he trao ddi hang hda va tra tien theo nghi djnh thd, nen hoat ddng cua nen ngoai thddng v l n trong khudn phep cdng nhac, trong khi phan thdc sd budn b i n theo thdng le qud'c te t h u i n tuy chi dien ra dd'i vdi sd lddng h I n g hda ngoli mdc va nhQng mat hang ngoai dien da cam ke't theo nghj djnh tha. Cho den khi bade v I o cdng cupc ddi mdi (td nam 1 986 den trPdc nam 1995), nen ngoai thddng nPdc ta v l n trong tinh trang " b i b i c h " do bao cap qude te khdng edn ma lai chda t h o l t khdi the bj bao vay, cam van.
Nen ngoai thadng Viet Nam chi thpe sp bade v I o hdi nhap bang budn b i n qudc te ke tQ t h i n g 7/1995 khi ehinh thQc trd thanh thanh vien eua Hiep hdi c l e qude gia Ddng Nam A (ASEAN). Day la thdi diem khai thdng de td dd, trong Id trinh hdi
The factual Integration of Vietnam foreign trade sector was marked by the official ASEAN membership in July 1995. Since then, through its practical activities, Vietnam has been actively and Initia- tively integrated Into international business community with consid- erable reforms of mechanisms and policies related to foreign trade such as eliminating state monopoly In foreign trade; focusing on for- eign investment attraction; developing border gate economic zones;
accelerating trade promotion activities...
Thanks to that, export and import activities during recent years have gained impressive changes with spectacular export expansion and its increasingly bigger contribution to GDP. Nevertheless, along with these achievements, our export activities liave also revealed several weaknesses to be addressed and overcome.
Since the end of 2008, widely spreading global financial crisis and economic recession have placed foreign trade of Vietnam in front of various difficulties and challenges, demanding integrated and drastic measures to overcome the hardships and firmly move forward in the integration process.
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nhap, nen ngoai thPdng Viet Nam lien tiep ghi nhdng dau md'c mdi:
cung trong thang 7/1995, Viet Nam ky Hiep djnh hpp t i c vdi cdng ddng chau Au (EC); ngay 1 5/12/1 995, chinh thdc tham gia Khu vQc mau dich tp do ASEAN (AFTA); t h i n g 3/1996, trd t h I n h mdt trong nhdng sang lap vien cua Dien dan Kinh te A - Au (ASEM); t h i n g 7/2000, ky Hiep djnh thadng mai song phPdng Viet - My (BTA) v l cd hieu Ipc tQ n g l y 10/12/2002; n g l y 18/11/1998, trd t h I n h t h I n h vien eua Dien dan Hpp t i c Kinh te chau A - T h I i Binh DQdng (APEC); thang 01/1995, chinh thQc nop ddn gia n h | p Td chde Thddng mai The gidi (WTO) va den t h i n g 01/2007, ehinh thQc trd thanh thanh vien cua td chde thQdng mai Idn nhat h i n h tinh n l y .
1 . Hanh dong va thanh qua bade dau
TQ md'c thdi gian dd den nay, bang hanh dpng thpe te, Viet Nam dang ngay c I n g tich cdc va chu ddng hdi nhap vdi cdng ddng kinh te qude te.
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DIEN DAN TRAO DOI
J^Ve Cd che, chinh sach, chung ta da ed nhieu c l i e l e h dang ke.
Viec xda bd che do nha nUdc ddc quyen ngoai thuang (chi cho e l c doanh nghiep thupc sd hQu n h i nddc dapc kinh doanh xua't nhap khau) dapc xem I I khau dot pha. Ke td dd, tat e l cae doanh nghiep thupc cac thanh p h I n kinh te deu ddpc trpe tiep tham gia xua't khau va nhap khau. Trong mot thdi gian n g i n , sd doanh nghiep tham gia xua't nhap khau da d at mpc len nhp "nam sau mda", gap tren mdt nghin l l n so vdi nam bat d I u ddi mdi. Di lien theo dd I I Nha nddc (thdng qua Bd Ngoai thPdng) da t i c h biet chde nang q u I n ly n h i nddc vdi chde nang q u I n ly kinh doanh ngoai thQdng. Ben canh dd, pham vi cac mat hang kinh doanh cung ddpc md rdng. Viec han che djnh Idpng bang han ngach hoac cam doan k h I e cung tdng bade dapc dd bd cho tdi gidi han tdi thie'u. Theo dd, cdng t i e q u I n ly td chd bang menh lenh h i n h chinh da dapc thay dan b l n g e l c cae cdng cu dieu tiet kinh te theo djnh hddng thj trddng.
Viec thu hut dau tU nUdc ngoai (DTNN) trong iTnh vpe s i n xua't hang xuat kha'u da dapc chu trpng trong chien Ipdc thu hut D T N N v I o Viet Nam ndi ehung. Nhd ed chu trddng nay, c l e n g l n h det may, da giay, dien tQ, tham ehi I I e l trong n g l n h h I n g thu cdng, da xua't hien nhieu xi nghiep cd vd'n D T N N . Viec phat trien nen kinh te nhieu thanh phan, trong dd ed sQ ddng gdp quan trpng eua t h I n h p h I n kinh te D T N N da tao ra dien mao mdi cho xua't khau c l nPdc ndi ehung va xua't kha'u h I n g hda cdng nghiep ndi rieng. Do ed cdng nghe hien dai, trinh dp quan ly tien tien hdn so vdi mat bang ehung eua doanh nghiep vdn trong nddc, lai ed cdng ty me thadng la cac tap doan kinh te da qude gia "ed ten tudi" dd d I u , nen mac du cho den nam 1991, e l c doanh nghiep D T N N mdi cd san pham xuat kha'u, song kim ngach da tang nhanh ngay c l e nam sau dd. Giai doan 1996-2000, ty le tang trPdng mdi nam thi'p nha't la 1 1 % , cao nha't I I 3 0 % - cao hdn ty le tang trPdng tadng Qng cung nam cua tdng kim ngach xua't khau. Chinh vi vay, ty trpng kim ngach eua khdi doanh nghiep cd vdn D T N N trong tdng kim ngach xul't khau tang d i n . Ke't q u i n l y da khang djnh khdi D T N N - he q u i eua tien trinh hdi nhap - la mdt thdc the khdng the thie'u tren mat tran xul't kha'u eua Viet Nam.
Ddng hanh trong Id trinh md cQa edn cd ddng thai quan trpng la md cac khu Kinh te cita khau (KTCK). Quyet djnh cua Thu tddng Chinh phu ve viec xay dpng t h i diem khu KTCK tai Mong C l i , Q u i n g Ninh nam 1 996 cd y nghla dat nen mdng ve ly luan va thpe tien cho viec ra ddi md hinh kinh te mdi - khu KTCK. Giai doan
1997-2000, ed them 8 khu KTCK lan Ippt ra ddi d 8 tinh. TQ nam 2001 den nay, cd them 14 khu KTCK ddpc thanh lap. Nhd vay, tinh den nay, ca nadc ed 23 khu KTCK thupc dia phan 19 tinh giap bien vdi Trung Qud'c, Lao va Campuehia.
NhQng md hinh kinh te nay da hpp Ipc cung vdi giao djeh ngoai thQdng khd'i lddng Idn, hpp ddng dai han, dda hang hda Viet Nam d nhieu ca'p dp, khd'i lddng nhd, hpp ddng ngan den nhanh vdi nhieu loai khach hang va dda hang nhap khau ve kjp thdi cho cac cd sd s i n xua't. Viec ra ddi cua khu KTCK da dat ca 2 yeu eau, vda tao them nhieu "eda" de hang hda vao, ra thuan tien, vda the hien thien y md rdng eda ddn be ban bdn phPdng eua Viet Nam.
Cdng tac xue tien thuang mai dddc khdi dpng ta nhdng nam bat dau ddi mdi. Tuy nhien, ke td nam 2000, vdi viec thanh lap e l c td chde xue tien thPdng mai qude gia, ke't nd'i c l e td chde xue tien thQdng mai cua cac nganh, dia phddng, dae biet la viec md rdng hdp t i e vdi c l e td chde xijc tien thddng mai qudc tecua nhieu nen kinh te Idn, Viet Nam da thdc hien hQu hied c l e giai p h I p hd trd cho c l e doanh nghiep ma khdng pham vIo nhQng cam ky theo c l e djnh che qudc te, giup c l e doanh nghiep ngay d n g nang eao nang Ipc xam nhap thj trPdng trong hoat ddng xuat n h | p khau.
NhQng ddng t h I i ke tren da tao ra sd chuyen bien Idn trong hoat ddng xul't nhap khau, bieu hien d:
- Sd luang cac doanh nghiep tham gia hoat ddng xuat nhap khau tang nhanh. Neu nhp nam 1985, chi cd 40 ddn vj thupc thanh p h I n kinh te n h i nddc tham gia kinh doanh xul't nhap khau, thi sau khi md eda cho tat c l c l e t h I n h phan kinh te dapc tham gia kinh doanh xua't nhap khau, so ddn vj da ngay mdt tang nhanh: nam 1990 len 270 ddn vi v l tinh den nay la khoang 40 nghin ddn vi, gap 1.000 lan so vdi nam 1986.
thanh; cd cati ihj trddng tiep tiie cd sd chuyen djeh tich CL/C'".
- Cac mat hang xuat khau co gia tri Ion xudt hien ngay cang nhieu. Neu nhif nam 1989, c<i nrfdc r h i r d 2 mat hang xuat khau tren 200 (rieu USD, thi den nam 2008 da ed 12 mat hang cd kim ngach ,\u,Vt khau tren I ty USD, trong dd ed hai mat hang mdi la hang thu cdng my nghe va san |)ham da quy, kim loai c|uy.
Cd the thay, ba yeu td tren da tao nen sd tang trddng kha ngoan miic cua xua'l khau Viet Nam, the hidn d tdc dp tang trifdng xuat khau binh quan trong 20 nam (1986-2005) dat tdi 2 1 % , gap hdn 2 lan so vdi tcVc dd lang (ua GDP.
Bang 1: Toe do tang ciia xuat khau trong moi tddng quan vdi toe do tang cua GDP
Don vi: %
^~~~~~--,_^^ Nam Chf sd ^^~~~~~~-„_^^
Tdc dp lang GDP Tdc dp tang xuat khati
2000
6,79 25,5
2003
7,34 20,6
2004
7,79 31,4
2005
8,44 22,5
2006
8,23 22,7
2007
8,48 21,9
2008
6,23 29,5 Ngudn: Nien giam Thdng ke 2007 va tap hap sd lieu nam 2008.
Nhd nhdng ket (|ul tren, ddng gdp cua xua't khau vao GDP ngay cang nhieu, the hi(:'n d ly Irpng cua kim ngach xua't khau trong GDP ngay cang tang.
Bang 2: Ty trong cua kim ngach xuat khau hang hda va djeh vu trong GDP
'••'•f- • : / • - - '^- D o n V I : %
^ ^ ^ ^ ^ - . _ Chi sd Tdng GDP Xuat khau djeh vu
Nam
^ ^ ^ - - - . . ^
hang hda va
2000
100 50,3
2003
100 59,29
2004
100 65,74
2005
100 69,36
2006
100 73,56
2007
100 76,79
Ngudn: Nien giam Thdng ke nam 2007.
Nhap khau v l n tang deu dan qua cac nam khien ty le nhap sieu mac du ed giam so vdi thdi ky dau ddi mdi, nhifng v l n d mr'tc cao. Tuy nhien, dieu quan trpng la mac du trj g i l nhap khau ngay cang eao nhrfng ty trpng kim ngach nhap khau hang tieu dung chi chiem td 3-5%; kim ngach nhap khau may mdc, thiol bi, vat td, nguyen, |.)hLi lieu phuc vu san xLiat van chiem ty trpng rat Idn. Hon nda, du nhap sieu con cao, song c i n can thanh t o l n van trong t i m kiem solt (bdi ngoai p h I n ngoai te thu drfpc td xuat khau hang hda, ngudn vd'n hd trp, kieu hdi, xua't khau djeh v u . . . cung ngay cang tang), khdng gay xao ddng ve e I n can ihanh toan va ly g i l ddng Viel Nam so vdi cac ngoai t(? manh.
Thi tradng chdu A chiem 44,5% ( n d m 2007 16 41 9%), c h d u A u c h i e m 18.3% ( n d m 2007 id 18,7%). c h d u M y c h i e m 20.6% ( n d m 2007 Id 21.9%), c h d u Doi d u o n g c h i e m 6,7% ( n d m 2007 Id 6.4%); c h d u Phi c h i e m 1.9% ( n d m 2007 id 1,27%).
So 45 (9.2009) THONG TIN S. DU BAO KINH TE - XA HOI
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Bang 3: Tinh hinh xua't nhap khau va nhap sieu giai doan 1986-2008
Ddn vi tinh: trieu USD Nam
1986 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008
Xuat khau
789,1 5.449 14.450 32.442 39.826 48.561 62.906
Nhap khau
2.155 8.155,4
15.630 36.987 44.891 62.682 79.916
Nhap sieu
1.365,9 2.706,4 1.180 4.545 5.06 >
14.121 17.010
Ty le nhap sieu
(%) 173 49,6 8,1
14 12,7 29,0 27,0 Ngudn: Bao cao hang nam cua Bd ThuOng mai (tU nam 2007 den n,i\ l<) Ba Cnni^ Thuang).
2. Tdn tai va thach thuc
Trong nhdng nam (|ua, mac clu xuat khau eua nddc ta dat drfpc nhieu ihanh Ipu, song \an bdc Id m()l sd diem ycLi kem:
- Mdi sd mai hang chu life tuy c(') vj the cao tren thi trrfdng the gidi, nhrfng do viec cai {h\vn vd hinh anh, thrfdng hieu chda dapc chu trpng dung mr'fe nen hieu qua chtfa ckfpe nha mong mud'n. Xua't khau v l n phu ihudc n h i c j vao mat hang khoang san, ndng, l l m , thiiy s i n , trong khi gia ca cac mai hang nay de tang trrfdng "ndng", nen cung dd d i n den tinh ir.pig dao chieu. C l e mat hang che bien cdng nghe da phan la hang gia cdng, ty le ndi dja hda tha'p, m l u ma, thiet ke td ben ngoai...
nen hau nha Idi nhuan lai theo thie't bj, nguyen lieu nhap khau v l nha ( l l u tif nrfdc ngoai "chay" ra ngoai cjud'c. Ngoai ra, mot sd' mat hang
|)hai xutil kh.iu c]ua Irung gian, nen cung d i n de'n tinh trang tadng td nhu Irc'^n.
- Thu tuc hanh chinh mac clu da ckfdc cai lien song v l n edn nhieu r l ( rdi, phien ha Irc-n dudng van chuydn, d ben bai, qua eda khau, khien cho chi phi dau vao khdng nhdng khdng g i l m ma tham c h i edn tang-'.
- Trong khi chrfa lan dung het nhdng Ipi fch tQ viec gia nhap WTO, cac hid|) (Ijnh song plufdng v l khu VL/C cid khai i h l c tiem nang eua cac
•' Thdng l<e c no tndy. trong mdt ndm. doanh nghiep phai mdt 1.959 gid de thac hi$n cac nghio vrj nop thue
dd'i t i c Idn, thi Viet Nam lai phai dd'i mat vdi nhicLi rao c I n mdi va cac thu doan tinh vi. Td nar 1994 de'n nay, cac doanh n g h i ^ Viet Nam p h l i dd'i mat vdi 37 vu' kien thrfdng mai, trong dd da sd ki cac vLi kic'n chdng b.in pha gia.
- Viec tiep can ngtidn vay, c<ic da an dau tLf chieu sau cho san xua't, kinh doanh hang xuat khati van edn bat cap, nha't la dd'i vcji hang ndng, thuy san va vdi cac doanh nghiep vda va nhd (hien chiem da so' tuyet dd'i trong cong ddng doanh nghiep). Nam 2009, de kieh eau, Nha nddc da cd chii trddng hd trp 47o lai sua't cho vay, i,on':\ nhieu hd ndng dan cung khdng cle- \.iy drfpc vdn do kho khan nhieu bd.
- Viec p h I t trien cdng nghiep phu trp con yeu dl. Tren thdc ic', nhieu nguyen, phu lieu cho nganh det may, da giay xua'l khau cd ihe san xua't trong nrfdc, song hic-n van p h l i phu thupc vao ben ngoai. Hdn nc'fa, cd che ciuln ly nhap khau hang phe lieu con tdn tai mdt so bat cap.
- Thdng tin thu thap con ed 16 hdng, khau phan tich, dp bao chLfa chuan x l e , khien cho nhdng quyet djnh dda ra khdng dat hieu q u i nha mong mudn.
3. Nhdng bai hoc kinh nghiem Thu nha't, hdi nhap khdng nhr'fng la xu the tat yeu ma con tao dpng Ipc cho sa phat trien td mdi cd sd. Cac doanh nghiep da chu ddng n i m b i t thdi cd khi ddpc md rdng thi trrfdng xual kha'u, dLfpc htfdng mLfc thue thi'p, dddc ddi xQ binh dang va cd nhieu SLf kfa chpn khi nhap khau.
SO s i n h ve dieu kien tp nhien, nhan cdng, tai nguyen, vi tri dia ly; tang cQdng nang iQc eua nen kinh te, dae biet la s i n xua't, che bien hang xua't kha'u; gia tang xua't kha'u; tQng bade cai thien vj tri va hinh anh Viet Nam tren thadng tradng qude te.
Thu hai, dLfdi sde ep cua toan c l u hda kinh te v l canh tranh ngay cang gay gat, ngay cang xua't hien nhieu hinh thCie rao c I n thPdng mai mdi tinh vi nhd I p dung e l c tieu chuan ky thuat, ve sinh an toan thpe pha'm hay e l c bien phap chdng b i n p h i g i l . De khac phpc tinh trang tren, mdt mat p h l i nang eao nang Ipc eua nen kinh te va tdng doanh nghiep; mat k h I e , c I n nang cao k h i nang nhan biet sdm cac rao e I n dd de kjp thdi g i l i tda nham dat dapc sp cdng b l n g trong quan he thadng mai qudc te'.
Thu ba, q u i trinh hdi nhap ddi hdi the che kinh te ndi ehung v l ngoai thddng ndi rieng can tiep tuc dddc c l i thien, tang eddng tinh minh bach trong mdi trddng chfnh tri - xa hdi dn djnh, nhdng khdng chi ddng d viec h o l n thien tren van ban ma phai ed sp ehi dao s i t sao cung vdi sp dieu hanh nha't q u I n eua e l c bd, nganh vdi sp tham gia cua e l c hiep hdi nganh hang; khuyen khich kha nang s i n g tao cua cdng ddng doanh nghiep. C l i c I c h h i n h ehinh c I n dLfpc day inanh giup cho cac doanh nghiep g i l m bdt ton phi ve thdi gian, tien eua.
de'n quan ly nhap khau de xu hQdng tQ do hda nhap khau khdng lam phQdng hai de'n nen kinh te vT md.
4. Hanh trang tren chang dUdng mdi
Bang thpe tien td nhdng bade di dad tien va x l e djnh ddpc djnh hddng Idn tren Id trinh hdi nhap, ngay 27/11/2001, Bp Chinh tri da ra Nghj quyet so' 07 ve hdi nhap kinh te qude te. Can cd vao Nghj quyet nay, ngay 14/3/2002, Chfnh phu da cd CliLfdng trinh hanh ddng, xac djnh muc tieu va ChPdng trinh 1 0 diem. Dai hdi Dang l l n thd X (thing 4/2006) x l e djnh, de tao bddc ngoat trong hdi nhap kinh te va hoat ddng kinh te dd'i ngoai, n g l n h ngoai thddng can phai day manh xua't khau, chu dpng ve nhap kha'u, kiem che va thu hep dan nhap sieu; tang nhanh ty trpng xua't khau e l c san pham che bien cd gia trj gia tang cao, g i l u ham Idpng cdng nghe, cd sde canh tranh, tao them s i n pham chu Ide mdi, han che va tien tdi cham ddt xul't kha'u tai nguyen thien nhien v l ndng s i n chda qua che bien; cung cd va md rdng thj trPdng xua't khau, tao thj tradng dn djnh cho cac mat hang cd kha nang canh tranh;
tang thi phan d cac thj tradng Idn va khai md c l e thj trddng edn nhieu tiem nang; phan dau dda kim ngach trong 5 nam tdi len gap 2 lan so vdi 5 nam trLfde.
Tuy nhien, cupc khung hoang kinh te toan eau lan rdng td cudi nam 2008 da khien cho nganh ngoai thLfdng lam vao e I n h lao dao. Nguyen nhan I I do nhu eau nhap khau eua cac thj trLfdng khdng Id nhd Hoa Ky, EU, Nhat Ban... deu sut g i l m .
Trade nhdng khd khan, t h i c h thCfc nay, nganh ngoai thQdng Viet Nam can phai ed c l e g i l i phap manh, ddng bd, trade m i t ed the la:
So 45 (9.2009) THONG TIN S. DU BAO KINH TE - XA HOI
45
DIEN DAN TRAO DOI
- T u a n theo c h u t r d d n g c h u n g , c a n de ra n h d n g c h i n h s a c h , g i l i p h I p cp the c h o tQng l i n h vQc, theo tQng md'c t h d i g i a n , t d n g d j a b i n ; h o a n t h i e n q u y h o a c h c h u y e n d i c h ed ca'u k i n h te hLfdng ve xua't kha'u.
- T r e n t i n h t h a n c d q u a n q u I n ly nha nLfde d d n g h a n h c u n g d o a n h n g h i e p , c l e c a p , e l c n g a n h q L i l n ly c a n thLfdng x u y e n p h d i h p p t d v i e c soan t h a o e h i n h s l e h de'n e h i d a o d i e u h a n h .
- Thie't lap he t h d n g e I n h b i o s d m ve c l e rao c a n de k h i g a p p h l i n h d n g t r d n g a i , n h a n h c h d n g ed c l e b i e n p h I p d n g c d u .
- T a n g eddng q u I n ly n h a p khau p h u h p p vdi d j n h c h e qud'c te n h l m g i l m a p kfc c h o ngan sach b a n g e a c h : x a c d i n h d a n h m u e h a n g t h p e sp thie't y e u c a n Lfu t i e n n h a p k h a u ; c h u t r p n g san xua't h I n g hda trong nLfde thay the h a n g n h a p k h a u ; c h u d p n g d i e u h a n h ty g i l ngoai h d i , tiet k i e m c h i p h i b a n g ngoai te c u n g n h a m u a s I m trang t h i e t bj ngoai n h a p .
- T h d d n g x u y e n c a p nhat t h d n g t i n , n a n g cao chat lddng p h a n t f c h , d p bao de cd sd dd'i p h d kjp t h d i v l b a n ke sach d a i lau.
- T i e p tpe c a i e l e h t h u t u c h a n h c h f n h ; c h d t r p n g c d n g t i c t u y e n t r u y e n n h a m tao sp d d n g t h u a n trong d d luan c u n g n h d d e n h a n d d p c h i e n ke c u a xa h d i ve c h f n h s l e h , b i e n p h I p d i e u h i n h . - T a n g t h e m n g u d n Ipc d e d d i m d i , n a n g cao h i e u qua x u e t i e n thLfdng i n a i , h d trp d o a n h n g h i e p ke't b a n h I n g , ndi q u a n h e , m d t h j t r d d n g - v i e c l l m k h d n g t r i i v d i d i n h c h e cua W T O . D
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DAN SO VIET NAM GIA HOA ANH Hl/ONG DEN PHAT TRIEN KINH TE - XA HOI
Gid tioa cjan so Id q u d trinh c h u y e n cSdi nhan khdu hpc theo hddng ty le ngddi c a o tudi (td 60 tudi trd len) t d n g len va chiem td 10% d a n sd trd len ho(5c t y le ngddi t d 65 tudi trd len chiem t d 7% dan sd trd len. (5 Viet Nam, Phap lenh Ngddi c a o tudi q u y (3inh nhdng ngd<5i t d 60 tudi trd len cjddc coi la ngddi c a o tudi.
Theo sd lieu tdng (3ieu tra d a n sd nam 1989, ty le ngddi c a o tudi 6 Viet Nam chiem 7,2% d a n sd. Den ndm 2007, ty le n d y Id 9,45% vd de'n ndm 2008 con so n d y d d len tdi 9,9% (vdi khocSng tren 8 trieu ngddi).
Con theo d p b d o c u a Lien Hdp Quo'c, v d o ndm 2050, ty le ngddi cao tudi d Viet Nam se d g t 26%.
Tdc 66 gid hoa c u a d d n sd Viet Nam c u n g dien ra nhanh hdn rdt nhieu so vdi nhieu nddc trong khu vdc vd tren the gidi. Neu thdp ky 80 c u a the ky 20, ngddi c a o tudi d nddc ta chi t d n g them 93 van ngddi (binh q u d n 0,23%/ndm), thi t h d p ky 90 d d t d n g them 1,55 trieu ngddi (0,33%/ndm). Nhdng ndm d d u the ky 21 (2000-2008), ngddi cao tudi d d tdng them 1,86 trieu ngddi (4,37o/ndm) vd theo d p b d o se tiep tuc tdng trong nhdng ndm tdi.
Theo ddc tfnh trdde d d y , d d n so Viet Nam se gid hda v d o ndm 2015, nhdng thdc te hien nay cho thd'y d d n sd nddc t a se gid hda vdo ndm 2010. Hien tgi, c d tdi 73% so ngddi c a o tudi c u a nddc ta dang sd'ng d ndng thdn vd 21% trong so d d vdn thuoc dien ngheo. Trong so' ngddi c a o tudi, chi c d 16-17% d d d c hddng Iddng hdu hodc md't sdc vd khodng 10% d d d c hddng trd c a p . Nhd v d y , ty le ngddi c a o tudi ngdy c d n g tdng d a n g d<at ra t h d c h thdc khdng nhd dd'i vdi nddc to trong viec c h d m sdc sdc khde, d d m b d o phuc icJi xd hdi.
So sdnh vdi ndm 1979, ty so phu thuoc tre d d gidm mgnh tdi hdn mot nda t u 84,2% xud'ng edn 39,2% vdo ndm 2007. Trong khi cung trong thdi gian d d , ty so phu thuoc gid igi tdng t d 13,8% len 14,5%.
Dieu d d c d Id nghTa tdc do gid hda d d n sd nhanh hdn td'e do tdng c u a d d n so trong dp tudi lao d d n g - nhdng ngddi c d ddng g d p chu y e u vdo khd'i c u a cdi vdt chd't c u a xd h(Di, ddi mdi khoa hpc vd cong nghe trong c d c ngdnh kinh t e , dich vu... M<at khdc, ngay c d khi ty le phij thupc tre gicfim di c u n g khdng du bu d d p nhdng chi phi xd hoi tdng len do chi phi cho ngddi c a o tudi Idn hdn nhieu so vdl chi phi cho tre em. Trong khi d d , he thd'ng c u n g cd'p dich vu c h d m sdc (hd trd sd'ng d d c Idp, c h d m sdc sdc khde, dich vu hda nhgp thdn thien vdi xd hdi...) dd'i vdl ngddi c a o tudi d nddc ta vdn chda d d p dng dddc nhu c d u c d ve sd lddng v d chd't lddng. Do d d , trong thdi gian tdi, nddc ta c a n sdm ban hdnh ludt ve ngddi c a o tudi, thiet Idp c d c chfnh sdch thudn Idi vd du ddi ddnh cho c d c t d c h d e phuc vu ngddi c a o tudi, khuyen khfch phdt trien e d e dich vu xd hpl d d n h cho ngddi eao tudi, d d n g thdi edn d d y mgnh cdi edeh b d o hiem nhdn tho. Ngodi ra, edn thdc hien e d e hogt dpng phu hdp vdl hodn c d n h dja phddng, tfch c d c trien khai c d c hogt d p n g v d t d n g e d d n g md hinh Bdo hiem xd hpl d a d g n g .
Nhd v d y , trong khi hdu het e d e nddc tren the gidi d d n so c d sd gid hda thi nen kinh te d d gidu c d , edn d Viet Nam Igi ngddc Igi, d d n sd d d "gid trdde khi g i d u " , n
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