KHOA HOC CONG NGHE
IJIMG DLJIVG A H P V A GIS TROIVG DAIVH GIA THICH IVGHI DAT DAI VIJIXIG THAIXIH CHAP MAIXI IXIGQT TROIXIG DIEU KIEIXI BIEIXI DOI KHI HAU TIIXIH KIEIXI GIAIXIG
Nguydn Tan Tmng\ Nguydn Luu linh^
Ld Canh Dinh^ Ld Quang Tri^
T6MTAT
Danh gia thich nghi dat dai trong vimg tranh chap man ngot trong dieu kien bien doi khi hau la bai toan phan tich quyet dinh da mue tieu, lien quan den nhidu linh vuc tu nhien, kinh te, xa hoi. Trong nghien ciiu nay, iing dung mo hinh tich hpp GIS va AHP-GDM de giai bai toan danh gia thich nghi dat dai. Tien trinh thuc hien ciia mo hinh nhu sau: i). xac dinh viing tranh chap man ngpt trong didu kien bien doi khi hau theo kich ban B2 den nam 2030; ii). xay dung ban do don vi dat dai trong viing tranh chap man ngot, danh gia thich nghi dat dai tir nhien theo FAO (1976), nhimg he thong su dung dat thich nghi tu nhien (SI, S2, S3) thi tiep tuc danh gia ve cac yeu td kinh te, xa hpi; in), img dung AHP-GDM de tinh trong sd cac yeu to, ling dung GIS de chdng xep cac lop thong tm chuyen de, tinh chi sd thich hop (SO theo phuong phap tnmg binh trong sd, phan loai Si de xay dung ban do thich nghi dat dai, chdng xep ban do thich nghi vol ban do hien trang sir dung dat nam 2015, tir do de xuat chuyen doi ca cau su dung dat hop ly, thich iing voi bien ddi khi hau.
Tir kh6a; Bidn ddi khi hau, danh gia thich nghi dit dai, GIS, AHP nhdm.
1. OAT VAN BE
Ddng bang s6ng Ctru Long (DBSCL) la mfit ti-ong nam khu virc tren thd gidi ehiu tae dpng ldn nhat cua bien doi khi hau CTran Thuc, 2017). Trong nhirng nam gan day, bien ddi khi hau (BDKH), nude bidn dang va qua trinh su dung nude cua cac qudc gia b thuong ngudn sdng Mekong da lam cho qua trinh xam nhap man b vimg DBSCL ngay cang lan sau vao npi ddng, gay ra tranh chap trong sir dung dat d cac vimg tidp giap man ngpt (vimg tranh chap man ngpt) tren toan ddng bang va xu the nay van dang tiep didn theo ehieu hudng ngay cang gia tang.
Kien Giang cd dien tich tii nhien ldn nhat trong 13 tinh, thanh phd thuoc vimg DBSCL, la tinh trpng diem h-ong san xuat lirong thuc va thuy san cua ca vimg. Kien Giang ed chieu dai bd bien ldn tdi tren 200 km (ca vimg 600 km), chiu anh hudng nghiem tipng cua qua trinh BDKH, nude bien dang va xam nhap man nen cung tao ra rat nhidu man tiiudn trong su dung dat b cae viing tranh chap man nggt, giiia san xuat lua gao va nuoi trdng thuy san. Miia kho nude man xam nhap sau vao npi ddng tao ndn vung h-anh chap man nggt vdi quy md ldn (190 ngan ha.
' Phan vien Quy hoach va Thiat k6 Nong nghiep
chiem khoang 33% didn tich tu nhidn cua tinh), gay ndn nhieu bit hgp ly trong sic dung tai nguyen dat.
Giai quydt bai toan sic dung dat trong vimg tranh chap man ngpt can dung hoa gitra hai mue tidu "giam thieu va thich img" de thuc su cd the chdng chiu vdi bien doi khi hau. Theo dd, danh gia thich nghi dat dai la npi dung cue ky quan trpng, cung tiiong tm khoa hoc hd tro ngudi ra quyet dinh trong vide ehuyen ddi ca can su dimg dat trong viing tranh chap man ngpt nham giam thieu tac dpng va thich ling vdi BDKH.
Ngoai eac yeu td tu nhidn, tac dpng cua yeu td kinh td, xa hpi cQng lam cho qua trinh sir dung dat trong vimg tranh chap man ngpt didn bien phiic tap.
Do vay, trong danh gia tiiich nghi dat dai can xem xet ddng thdi cac yeu td tu nhien, kinh te, xa hpi (FAO, 1993b, 2007). Day la bai toan danh gia, phan tich da tidu ehuan (MCE/MCA), trong dd, hdu het cac nghien ciiu ddu su dung phuong phap phan tich thu bac (AHP) eua Saaty (1980) de xac dinh trgng sd cac tieu chuan (Lu et al., 2007). Mat khac, de ti-anh thu dugc tri thiic cua nhieu chuyen gia trong timg linh vue, can thiet phai su dung phuong phap AHP ti-ong quyet dinh nhdm (AHP-GDM) de tinh ti'ong sd eac ydu td phuc vu cho viec danh gia dat dai (Ld Canh Dinh, 2011).
KHOA HOC C d N G NGHE
Ung dung mo hinh tich hop GIS va AHP-GDM (Ld Canh Dmh, 2011) trong danh gia thich nghi dat dai vimg tranh chap man - ngpt trong dieu kidn BDKH den nam 2030 tinh Kien Giang, nham hd tra ngudi ra quydt dinh (nha quan ly, nha quy hoach,...) chuyen ddi eo can sir dung dat thich img vdi BDKH.
2. M d HiniH DANH GIA BAT DAI VUNG TRAIW CHAP NIAN NBOT
Ung dung GIS va AHP-GDM trong danh gia thich nghi dat dai vimg smh thai man - ngpt theo mo hinh danh gia thich ung bidn ddi khi hau viing sinh thai nong nghiep (chapter 4/FAO, 1996), cae buoc thuc hien nhu sau (hinh 1).
Hinh 1. Tich hgp GIS va AHP-GDM trong danh gia d^t dai vung tranh chap mSn nggt (phdng theo md hinh dinh gia thieh ung bidn ddi khi hau vung sinh thii ndng nghidp (FAO, 1996) Budc 1: Phan vimg sinh thai man - ngpt:
- Trdn co sd kich ban bien ddi khi hau trung bmh (B2) nam 2030, xay dung ban dd xam nhap man, ban dd ngap nam 2030.
- Phan viing suih thai man - ngpt, gdm 04 vimg sinh thai nhu sau (Ld Anh Tuan, 2012; Le Van Khoa va ctg, 2013): i). Vimg ngpt (ndng dp man <2%o); ii).
Vung ngpt - Ip (ndng dp man: 2-4%o); ii). Vimg Ip (ndng do man: 4-10%o); iv). Vimg man (ndng do man:
>10%o).
Budc 2: xay dung ban dd don vi dit dai (LMU), ling dung GIS ehdng xdp cac ban do chuyen de thd nhuong, tang phen. dia hmh (Phan vien Quy hoach va Thidt ke Nong nghidp, 2017); ban dd thuy loi (Vidn Quy hoach Thiiy lgi mien Nam, 2017),...
Tir ban dd phan viing tranh chap man ngpt (bude 1), ban dd don vi dat dai (budc 2), hch thdi vu cua eac loai hinh sir dung dat (Sd Nong nghiep va Phat tiidn nong thon tinh Kien Giang, 2017), tir dd lua chon cac he thdng sic dung dat (LUS) trong vimg tranh chap man ngpt dd danh gia thich nghi dat dai theo eac yen td tir nhien (FAO, 1976).
Budc 3: cac hd thdng su dung dat (LUS) thich nghi tu nhien (SI, S2, S3) thi dua vao phan tich danh gia vd kinh td, xa hdi; iing dung AHP - GDM de tinh trong sd cac yeu td kinh te, xa hpi (hinh 2). Xay dung cac Idp thong tin chuydn de trong GIS, chdng xep cac Idp thong tin, tinh dupe chi sd thich hpp (Si) iing vol timg vimg, phan loai Si de xae dinh vimg thich hpp ben viing. Cong thuc tinh Si nhu sau:
= 2:c^.^^.)-n^
(i>Trong dd, Si: chi sd thich hgp; w; trpng sd cua tidu chuan i; x,: diem eua tieu chuan; c,: gia tri boolean cua ydu td han che.
Mo hinh xac dinh trpng sd trong ra quyet dinh nhdm (AHP-GDM), gdm cac budc sau (Lu et al., 2007) (hinh 2):
- Thiet lap thu- bac cac yeu td, cac chuyen gia danh gia ridng re (k ma tran so sanh cap cua k chuyen gia), a,,k la mite dp quan trgng cua tidu ehuan i so vdi tieu chuan j ciia chuyen gia k; tieu chuan j so voi tidu chuan i: ^^= l/a,,k; a,jkG [1/9,1] \j [1, 9].
142 NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY 1 - THANG 12/2018
KHOA HQC CONG N G H £
I^ISI M B thdc bac cac y l u t6 M a tran so sanh c | g cua
M a tran so sanh t&gg hag cua nham [ A J T^yb trong so cua cac yeu
to (AHP): [w]
Hinh 2: AHP-CDM ti-ong x^c dinh ti-png sd cic ydu td
- Tmh ty sd nhat quan (CR) cua timg ma tran so sanh, nhirng ma tran so sanh cua cac chuydn gia ed ty sd nhat quan (CR) <10% thi dua vao tinh toan tdng hgp.
Tdng hgp eae ma tran so sanh cap cua cae chuydn gia (K Goepel, 2010): A, = f TT ^ Y"
- Trdn co sd ma tran so sanh tdng hop cua k chuydn gia [A,j], tinh trpng sd cac yeu td [w] theo phuong phap vector neng (eigen vector).
Ket qua cua budc 3 la ban do thich nghi dat dai phue vu cho quan ly su dung dat ben viing. Ddi chieu vdi hidn trang sir dung dat, tir do de xuat ehuyen ddi CO cau sir dung dat thich img vcn BDKH.
3. KET QUA VA THAO LUAN 3.1. Phan vtmg sinh thai mSn-ngpt
Nghien cicu cu the cho tinh Kidn Giang, dien tich tir nhidn gan 572 nghin ha (ehi tinh phan dat hdn), phan vimg sinh thai (bang 1).
Bang 1. Phan vimg sinh thai man - nggt Vimg sinh
thai Ngot I Ngot - lo
Lo Man
Do man
<2 2-4 4-10
>10 Sdng sudi Tdng didn tich (vimg dat Udn)
Dien tich (ha) 360.724
33.203 156.488 4.481 16.968 571.864
Tyle
(%)
63,1 5,8 27,4 0,8 3,0 100,0
Theo Le Anh Tuan (2012), dp man <2%o khdng anh hudng den nang suat lua; dp man 2-4%o lam giam nang suat liia tir 30-50%; dp man >4%o nang suat liia bi anh hudng nghidm trong. Trong dieu kien tinh Kien Giang, vimg tranh chap man ngpt la viing anh hudng den nang suat lua (dd man: 2-10%o), dugc chia thanh 02 viing smh thai ngpt - lg (24%o): 33,2 nghin ha va viing smh tiiai lg (4-10%o): 156,5 nghin ha.
3.2. Danh gia thich nghi d^t dai theo cic ydu td ti; nhidn CFAO,1976)
Ung diing GIS chdng xep cac Idp thdng tin chuyen de thd nhuong, gley, ting phen, dia hinh, thuy lgi (kha nang tudi), ngap...xay dung ban do don vi dat dai (LMU) gdm 61 LMU, ehdng xep ban dd LMU toan tinh voi ban dd phan vimg sinh thai man nggt, trong viing tranh chap mSn - ngpt cd 36 LMU.
He thdng sii dung dat ti-ong viing ti-anh chap man nggt nhu sau (Phan vien Quy hoach va Thiet ke Nong nghidp, 2017):
- Vimg sinh tiiai ngpt - lg (2-4%o): 2 lua - man (LUTl); 2 lua - ca; 2 lua (LUT2);
- Viing sinh thai lg (410%<.): 1 lua - tom (LUT4);
chuydn torn (LUT5).
Danh gia thich nghi tu nhidn theo phuong phap ban che ldn nhat (FAO, 1976), theo dd, iing dung mo hinh tich hgp ALES va GIS (Ld Canh Dinh, 2005) danh gia thich nghi tu nhidn eho 5 LUT da chpn d trdn, 36 don vi dat dai trong viing tranh chap man- ngpt. Cac he thdng sic dung dat (LUS) thuoc bp thich nghi (SI, S2, S3) tir nhidn thi dua vao phan tich danh gia ve yeu td kinh td, xa hgi.
3.3. Danh gia thich nghi dat dai phijic vu quan ly su dxfng dat bdn viing (FAO, 1993b; 2007)
Theo hudng dan cua FAO (1993b, 2007) ket hgp vdi phan tich dieu kidn tir nhidn, kinh te, xa hpi ciia tinh Kidn Giang va tham khao y kien cua cac chuyen gia, ngubi su dung dat, da xac dinh duoc cac yen td (indicators) chu ydu anh hudng den tinh ben viing cdc LUS trong viing tranh chap man -ngpt tinh Kidn Giang. Ung dung mo hmh AHP - GDM (hmh 2) trong xac dinh trpng sd cac yeu td, hen trinh thirc hidn nhu sau:
3.3.1. Ddi vdi eic yeu td cap 1
Gdm yeu td kmh te, xa hpi, tai nguydn thien nhien va moi trudng (TNTN&MT) (bang 2).
KHOA HOC C O N G NGHL
Bang 2. Gii tri Yeutd
I Kinhte
Xahoi J Xahgi
Ttr nhien Ttr nhien CR(%)
so sanh cap cac y^u to cap 1 Ciia c ^ chuyen gia Ket qua danh gia cua chuyen gia thii 1
4 2 1/5 8,10
2 3 4 3 6,34
3 5 6 3 8,10
4 8 4 1/4 4,62
5 4 6 4 9,30
6 6 3 1/4 4,62
7 4 2 1/3 1,58
8 5 2 1 8,10
9 6 5 2 7,39
Aij 332/69 238/69 7/8
- Ddi vdi tieu chi cap 1, didu tra 9 chuydn gia am - Tiep theo, xac dinh ma tran so sanh tdng hgp hidu vd cac tinh ch^t (cua ydu td c^p 1) ti'ong Hnh A,, ^ f A „ V'", ti'dn co sd dd, tinh ti-ong sd cac ydu vuc quan ly su dung dat (3 chuyen gia lam cong tac [\h, "* J
nghidn ciiu, quy hoach; 3 chuyen gia quan ly Nha to tiieo phuong phap vector ndng, kdt qua nhu bang nude; 3 chuyen gia la ddi tijpng su dung tai nguydn 3.
dat dai). Ket qua danh gia nhu bang 2.
Bang 3. Ma tran so sdnh tdng hgp cac ydu td c^p 1 va trong sd cdc ydu td YSutd
Kinhte Xahoi Tu nhien
Kinhte 1/1 69/332 69/238
Xahoi 332/69 1/1 8/7
Tu nhien 238/69
7/8 1/1
Trong sd 0,6612 0,1460 0,1928 Vdi phuong phap tuong tu, trpng sd cua cac yeu
td cap 2 dirge xac dinh nhu sau:
3.3.2. Ddi vdi cic yeu tdedp 2
- Yeu td cap 2 thuoc nhom kinh te gdm 3 yeu to:
Tdng gia tri san xuat (GO), lai thuan (GM), gia tri san xuat/chi phi san xu^t (B/C).
Banf Yeutd I GO GM
j GM B/C B/C CR(%)
'4.Gi4tr i s o s ^ ih cap CUE cdc y eutdc i p 2 t h Ket qua danh gia ciia chuyen 1
1/2 1 4 4,62
2 2 3 1 1,58
3 2 3 4 9,30
4 4 5 2 2,12
5 3 4 3 6,34
6 4 6 4 9,30
Lidcnh 6m kinh t6 gia thii
7 4 5 3 7,39
8 4 5 1 0,48
9 3 6 4 4,62
Aij 120/47
91/24 120/47 Tir dd tinh duoc ma tran so sanh tdng hgp [A,] - Ydu td cap 2 thuoc nhdm xa hgi gdm 3 yeu td:
(bang 4) va vector trpng sd: tap quan san xuat (TQSX); phii hgp vol chinh sach [Woo; WGM; WB/C] - [0,5919; 0,2777; 0,1303]. ^ua nha nude (CS); phii hgp voi kha nang vdn (VON)
dau tu san xuat trdn dien rong eiia ndng dan.
Bang 5. Gid tri so s^nh cap ciia cac ydu td c^p 2 thudc nhdm xa hpi Y & t d
i TQSX
CS J CS VON VON CR(%)
1 1/3 1/2 4 9,30
2 1 2 5 8,10
Kdt qua danh gia ciia chuyen 3
1/3 1 5 2,51
4 1/4
3 5 7,39
5 1/4
3 7 2,79
6 1/5
2 5
4,62 gia thii
7 1/4
1 2 4,62
8 1/3
1 6 4,62
9 1/6
2 7 2,79
Aij 3/10 137/92 218/45
Tir dd tinh dupe ma tran so sanh tdng hpp [A,,]
(bang 5), tinh duoc vector trong sd:
[W-rysx; Wcs: WVON] = [0,2004; 0,6638; 0,1358].
Nhu vay, da xac dinh dupe tat ca ti-png sd hing phan cua cac yen td cdp 1, cap 2. Trpng sd toan ciic la tich cac trpng sd thanh phan theo cay thii bac (bang 6).
NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY 1 - THANG 12/2018
KHOA HOC CONG NGHE
BSng 6. C^u tnic thii bac va trpng sd cac ydu td b6n vting Yeu td cap 1
Kinhte Wl-0,6612
Xahoi W2-0,1460
Tu nhien W3-0,1928
Yeu to cap 2 1. Tdng gia fri san xuat 2. Lai thudn
3. Gia tri san xuat/chi phi san xuat 4. Tap quan san xuat
5. Phil hop vol chinh sach
6. Phil hop voi kha nang vdn cua ndng dan 7. Thich nghi tir nhi^n
[W]
W l l W12 W13 W21 W22 W23 W31
Trong sd yen td cap 2
0,5919 0,2777 0,1303 0,2004 0,6638 0,1358 1,000
Trong sd toan cue 0,3914 0,1836 0,0862 0,0293 0,0969 0,0198 0,1928 Hidn nay, trong phat tnen san xuat nong nghidp,
hau het cac nha nghidn ciiu, xay dung chinh sach;
quan ly nha nude; ngudi str dung dat ddu quan tam ddn tinh ben vting (xem xet ddng thdi cac linh vue kinh td, xa hpi, tu nhidn moi trudng), do vay trpng sd cac yeu td ddu ldn hon khdng (bang 6). Hieu qua kinh td trong san xuat nong nghidp dupe chii trpng trdn CO sd thich nghi tu nhidn va dap iing cac van de xa hpi nhu phii hpp vdi chinh sach cua nha nude, phong tuc tap quan va kha nang vdn cua ngudi dan (yeu td kmh te chiem trgng sd toan ciic cao hon so vdi cac ydu td nhdm xa hdi, ti; nhidn mdi hudng).
Hmh 3. So sanh kdt qud 2 phuong phap FAO (1976) vaMCE
Hinh 4. Bin dd dd xu^t sii dung d^t (bien tap tit ban do 1/100.000)
Mdi yen td la mpt mot lop thdng tin, chdng xep 7 Idp thong tin de tinh chi sd thich hop (SO tinh theo cong tiiirc (1). Phan loai chi sd thich hpp, dugc ket qua thich nghi (SI, S2, S3) va khong tiiich nghi (N).
So sanh ket qua cua phuong phap danh gia thich nghi theo cac ydu td tu nhidn (FAO, 1976) vdi kdt qua cua phuong phap danh gia da tieu chuan (MCE) trong nghien ciiu nay, do thi (hinh 3).
Phuong phap han che ldn nhat cua FAO (1976) la phuong phap dinh tinh, chi danh gia thich nghi theo cac yen td tu nhidn. Phuong phap danh gia da tidu chuan (MCE), ngoai tiiich nghi tu nhien cdn xdt them cac yeu td kinh td, xa hpi, do vay cap thich nghi se tang ldn 1 cap tir (S3 ldn S2, hi S2 ldn SI) ddi vcn cac LUT cd hidu qua kinh te cao, duoe xa hpi chap nhan va phii hgp voi chmh sach eua Nha nude nhu:
loai hinh 2 liia-mau a U T l ) ; 2 lua - ca (LUT2); lua - tom (LUT4) va ehuyen tom (LUT5); rieng loai hinh 2 lua (LUT3) cap thieh nghi giiia 2 phuong phap la nhu nhau, do loai hinh nay hieu qua kinh te khong qua cao.
Chdng xep ban dd thich nghi dat dai ben virng va ban do hien trang sic dung dat, tir dd dd xuat chuyen ddi co cau sir dung dat nong nghidp den nam 2030 theo hirdng giam thieu tae dong va tiiich ung vdi bien ddi khi ban cho vimg tranh chap man ngot (hinh 4), cu the nhu sau:
- Chuyen dat 2 vu liia sang lua - tom d vimg lg (man: 4-10%o) thupe viing U Minh Thupng va phia Nam kdnh Rach Gia - Ha Tidn vimg Tii Giac Long Xuydn va sang 2 lua - 1 man viing ngpt lg (vimg phia Dong kenh Xeo Ro thupe An Bien, U Minh Thupng, Vinh Thuan).
- Liia - tdm chuyen sang chuyen tdm b viing lg (man: 4-10%o) phia Nam kdnh Chac Bang (Vinh Thuan), phia Tay kenh Chdng My (An Bidn, An Minh), khu vue Ba Hdn (Kidn Luong).
4. KET LUAN
Tinh Kidn Giang cd vimg tranh chap man ngpt (dp man: 2-10%o): 189,7 ngan ha, chiem 33,2% didn tich tir nhidn toan tinh, dugc chia thanh 02 vimg smh
KHOA HOC CONG NGHl
thai ngot - lg (do man: 2-4%): 33,2 ngan ha va vung thich nghi dat dai. Tap chi Ndng nghiep va Phat tridn sinh thai lg (do man: 4-10%): 156,5 ngan ha. Phan ndng thdn, trang 82-89,9/2011.
tich, ddi chidu ban dd thich nghi dat dai va ban dd 3 L^ yan Khoa, Nguydn Thi Mm Su, Vo Quang hien trang su dung dat trong viing tranh chiip man ^ i n h va Pham Thanh Vu, 2013. Phan vung sinh thai nggt, de xuat chuyen ddi liia 2 vu sang liia- tdm a „5„g ^g^iep then thuy van, thd nhuong va hien trang vimg lg, sang 2 vu liia -mau o viing nggt lg; liia tdm ^ ^ ^ tac cho cac huyen ven bien tinh Bdn Tre. Tap chuyen sang chuyen tdm o vimg lg. Ket qua dd xnit ^ y Khoa hoc - Dai hoc Cin Thg, trang 227-236, sir dung dat thich iing vdi dieu kien BDKH den nam 26/2013
2030 (kich ban B2), nen cd the su dimg kdt qua cua
nghien ciiu nay (gdm: tai lieu va ban dd) trong cong "' " ^^ ^uan, 2012. Tac ddng cua bidn doi khi tac quan ly va sir dung dat tren dia ban tinh Kien ^^'^ '*" ^^ ™*' '"^- ' * ™ "^""S "^hiep, Irang 92-93.
Giang. 5. J. Lu, G. Zhang, D. Ruan, F. Wu, 2007. Multi- TAl UBJ THAM KHAO Objective Group Decision Making: Method,
software, and application with fuzzy techniques.
1. U Canh Dinh, 2005. Tich hgp ALES va GIS w „ ^ , j ^^^^^^ Publishing, Singapore, trong danh gia thich nghi dat dai. Luan van cao hoc
Geomatics.Daihoc Bach khoaTP.Hd Chi Mmh. ^- ^^^' ^^^^- Agro-ecological zoning (AEZ):
r, J ~ n^ u rx- u '>nii -r- u u /-TC • i,- GuideHnes, Romo, Italy.
2. Le Canh Dmh, 2011. Tich hop GIS va phan tich quyet dinh nhdm da tidu chuan trong danh gia
APPUCATION OF THE INTEGRATED MODEL OF GIS AND AHP FOR EVALUATING SUITABLE LAND- USE IN THE ZONE OF THE SALTWATER AND FRESHWATER INTERACTIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF
CUMATE CHANGE: A CASE STUDY IN KIEN GIANG PROVINCE
Nguyen Tan TrimgS Nguyen Luu LinhS Le Canh Diidi^ Le Quang Tri^
^ Sub-National Institute of Agricultural Planning and Projection (Sub-NIAPP)
^ Can Tho University Summary
Land evaluatton in the zone of the saltwater and freshwater interaction in the context of climate change is a multi-cnteria decision making (MCDM) problem that relates tovanous fields (natural, economic, social). In this research, the integrated model of GIS and AHP group (AHP-GDM) was apphed to solve this land evaluation problem. The process model is as follows: i). Zone the saltwater and freshwater interaction in the context of ckmate change scenano B2 in year 2030; ii). Overlay natural thematic layers to build a land mapping unit in this zone and analyse land use suitability by FAO (1976) method; the suitable land use systems (SI, S2, S3) are then analysed with economic and social indicators, in). Finally, apply AHP-GDM to calculate tiie weight of each indicator, overlay all thematic layers in GIS, calculate the suitabihty index (Si) by the method of weight average, classify Si to determine the suitability map in GIS, union map 2015 and suitability map to propose a change of land use types in adaptation to climate change.
Keywords: Climate change, land evaluation, GIS, AHP in group decision making (AHP-GDJM).
Ngudi phan bidn: PGS.TS. Nguydn Van Tuan Ngay nhan bai: 19/9/2018
Ngay thdng qua phan bidn: 19/10/2018 Ngay duydt dang: 26/10/2018
146 NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY 1 - THANG 12/2018
