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NGHIEN CU'U - PHATTRIEN LY LUANMOI QUAN HE G I O A D J A CHINH TRj VADjA KINH TE:
LY LUAN VATHirC TIEN
• PGS, TS PHAN VAN R A N
• TS NGO CHI NGUYEN Vien Quan he qudc te.
Hoc vien Chinh tri quoc gia Hd Chi Minh
9 Torn tdt: Dia kinh tevd dia chinh tri cd moi quan he bien chdng, tdc ddng qua lgi vd gdn bd chat che vdi nhau. Trong khi nhdn to dia kinh te ngdy cdng gia tdng sdc ndng vd tdm quan trgng trong chinh tri quoc te thi ngUdc lgi, bien dgng vd ddo lgn dia chinh tri se tdc dgng den dia kinh te. Nhdn thdc dung ddn moi quan he gida dia kinh te vd dia chinh tri, van dung xU ly hieu qud cdc vdn de dia chinh tri vd dia kinh te trong hogch dinh vd thuc thi chien lUdc phdt trien quoc gia, nhdt la chien liidc doi ngogi vd hot nhdp quoc te Id chia khda quan trgng de dUa ddt nUdc di tdi sii dn dinh vd thinh vUdng.
• TU khoa: dia chinh tri, dia kinh te, moi quan he giUa dia chinh tri vd dia kinh te.
1. Khai niem va noi ham dia chinh tri, dja kinh te
Ttr rat sdm trong lich sir, cdc nha tu tudng phuong Tay cd dai da ban den mdi hin quan giiia cac dac ttung va dieu kien dia ly vdi chinh sach vd hanh vi chinh tri cua cac nha nude. Tuy nhien, phai din eudi thi ky XIX, ddu thi ky XX, khdi niem va ngi ham thuat ngir "dia chinh tri"
(Geopolitics) mdi lan dau tien dupe sii dung bdi nha khoa hpc chinh tri ngudi Thuy Dien John Rudolf Kjellen vao nam 1899 trong tdc pham
"MianuDcnijumprco'f/)esdijg"(TheStateasa Living Form). Trong dd, J. R. Kjellen cho rdng, cac yiu td dia ly va mdi trudng tu nhiin se quy dinh cac dac diem ve ehinh tri, kinh te va quan su eiia mdi qudc gia theo nghia chiing cd thi tao
thuan Ipi hoac kim ham cdc qua trinh phat trien chinh tri, kinh te - xa hdi, ddng thoi gdp phan dmh hinh van hda chinh tti, ban sdc va lich sti ciia mdi qudc gia. Ttr sau dd, thuat ngii "dia chinli tri" duoc ban luan nhieu trong cac ly thuyet ve chinh tri va quan hi qude ti cung nhu dugc van dung pho bien trong hoach dinh va thye thi chiin luoc, chinh sdch ddi ngoai ciia nhiiu qudc gia, nhat la ciia edc cudng qudc'".
Mac dti ehua cd su nhan tiiuc thdng nhat trong gidi hoe gia va hoach dmh chinh sdch ve khainiimvandiham cua tiiuatngu dia chinli tti song vi coban, thuat ngii nay dupe hiiu duoi hai khia canh: 1) dudi lang kinh ly thuyet, "dia chinh tri" dugc hiiu nhu la mpt each tigp can cua khoa hpe chinh tti nghiin ciiu ve mdi quan he tuang
_EI
tac ed tinh nhdn qua giiia cac yeu td vd diiu kien dja ly, mdi trudng tu nhiin vdi dae diem va xu hirdng van ddng cua khdng gian quyin lire chinh tn cua qudc gia, khu vue cung nhu sir van dpng ciia khdng gian quyen lire ttong chinh tri qudc l i gan vol qudc gia, khu vue; 2) dudi gdc nhin thuc tiin chinh tri qudc te, "dia chinh tri" dugc nhin nhan nhu la chiin lupc ddi ngoai vd hanh vi quoe t i ciia cae qudc gia, nhat la ehiin lupc toan eau ciia cae cudng qudc nhdm muc tiiu canh tranh anh hudng va kiim soat cac khdng gian quyin lire ttgng yeu tren ban cd ehinh tri qudc t&'^\
Trong khi khai niim "dia ehinh tti" xuat hien lit hang t h i ky trudc va duge ban ludn rgng rai, thuat ngii "dia kinh te" (Geo-economics) xuat hiin mudn hon nhiiu vd nd van cdn kha moi me ttong ngdn ngii eung nhu thuc tien chinh tri qudc t i va chinh sdch ddi ngoai qudc gia. Ndm 1942, nha khoa hgc ngudi My George T. Renner la ngudi dau tien sir dung thuat ngii dia kinh te'^K Tuy nhien, phai din nam 1990 khi xuat hiin bai bao "Tir dia chinh tri tdi dia kinh te: logic ciia xung dot, ngdn ngii eua thuang mai" eua nha khoa hgc chinh tri noi tieng ngudi My Edward Luttwak, khai niim vd ngi ham thuat ngu dia kmh te mdi dupe nghiin eiiu va chiing minh mdt each kha rd rang vi mat ly thuyit va trong thuc tiin chinh tti qudc te, Trong bai bdo do, Luttwak cho rang, ehiin tranh lanh kit thue, t h i gidi chuyen tir tiidi dai dia ehinh tri sang thdi dai ctia dia kinh ti, ma d do eudc dua tranh giira cae qudc gia dii vdn duoc xdc dinh boi "logic cita xung dot" nhung thdng qua "ngdn ngii thuang mai"'*'. Theo quan diim ciia Luttwak, dia kinh te la hinh thirc mdi cua sy canh tranh sue manh giira cac qude gia sau chien tranh lanh, Ong eho rang, ehinh tri qudc te thai ky hau chien tranh lanh mac dti van bi chi phoi bdi canh tranh siie manh giiia cae nha nude nhung chiin trudng
chil yeu la kmh te thay vi quan su, phuang tiin ua thich duoc cac nha nude sir dung de theo dudi cae muc tteu ddi khang nhau se la kinh te hon Id quan su*^'. Theo Luttwak, strc manh quoe gia trong ky nguyin dia kinh te xuat phat tir vdn tu ban thay vi siic manh hda luc, ddi mdi dan su thay cho tiin bd ky thuat qudn su va tham nhap thi trucmg thay cho eac ddn hot va cdn cii. Trong mdt ky nguyen nhu vay, Luttwak du bdo rdng:
"cac bien phdp trtmg phat kinh te thay the cac eudc tan cdng quan su, cdc co c h i canh tranh thuang mai thay the cdc hen minh qudn su, chiin tranh tien te pho biin ban so vdi viec chiim ddng lanh thd va viee thao tung gid tdi nguyen nhu dau md mang lai hau qua Ion hon so vdi eac cude chay dua vu trang thdng thudng""^'. Ong cho rdng, trong bdi cdnh eanh tranh mdi, viec ehinh phii sii dung vdn dau tu vao phat trien cdng nghiep la tuong duong vdi vu khi ndng, vdo su phdt triin san pham tuong duong vdi viec cdi tiin vii khi, va su tham nhap thi trudng qude t i cung tuong duong nhu triin khai anh hudng ngoai giao"''. Bai bdo do cungvdi mdt loat cdng trinh nghien ciiu ndi tiing khac cua dng ban ve dia kinh t i da dua Luttwak trd thdnh hpe gia co anh huong nhat trong ITnh vue nghien ciru nay, Nhin chung, dia kinh te theo quan diem cua Luttwak ve ban chat van la ehinh tri dua trin siic manh dudi gdc nhin hiin thue ehu nghia nhung duge thue hien boi phuang tien khde, Ipi ieh qudc gia vdn la ndi bat, va kinh te ngdy cang trd thanh ddn bay quan trpng ma cdc nha nude sir dung de theo duoi cdc loi ich qudc gia chien luge trong quan he qudc te.
Trong nhiing ndm gan day, thuat ngir dia kinh te dupe ban ludn sdi noi vd ngay cang cd vi tri noi bat nhu mdt each tiep can nghien eiiu quan he qude te va ehinh sach ddi ngoai cua cac nha nude. Tuy nhiin, cung nhu thuat ngu "dia ehinh
LYLUAN CHINH TRI-So 5/2019
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NGHIEN CI^U - PHATTRIEN LY L U A N tri", each hieu ve Idiai niem va ndi ham thuat ngu "dia Idnh te" ia khdng thdng nhat trong cac nghien cuu cua gidi hgc gia. Tu cac quan diem cija gidi hgc gia, ndi len hai tru'dng phai chu yeu ban luan ve dia kinh te la drudng phai Luttwak va nhiing quan diem khac voi tnidng phai Luttwak.Cac quan diem theo tmang phai Luttwak nhin chung xem dia kinh te nhu mot phuong tien thuc hanh chinh sach doi ngoai ciia cac quoc gia nh^m tlieo duoi cac miic tieu chien luoc trong quan he qudc te. Cac hgc gia ciia trudng phai nay da tap trung vao vai trd, tam quan trpng ciia nhan td kinh te trong cugc canh tranh quyen luc giua cac qudc gia trong chinh di qudc te. Hudson xem dia kinh te la chien luge kiem soat lanh thd mang dgng luc kinh te va dugc thix hien bang cac phuong tien kinh te, ma quan trpng nhatla dau niva thuong mail". Theo Hsiung, dia kinh te la mdt su chuyen ddi tu mdi quan tam quan sir sang moi quan tam ve an ninh kinh te ttong chinh tti toan cau '='. Trong khi dd, mpt sd hoc gia coi dia kinh te la mdt hinh thiic bieu hien mdi ciia chinh tri cudng quydn, dd la viec su dung cac cdng cu kinh te de bao ve va thiic day quyen luc quoc gia cung nhu muc tieu kiem soat cac khdng gian dia chinh tri trpng ygu cua the gidi ma khdng vien tdi siic manh va su ran de quan su"". Lien quan den khia canh nay, nhieu hgc gia chi ra rang, nhiing muc tieu Idn ttgng chien lupc dau tu, thuong mai va xay dung CO so ha tang cua Trung Qunc o cac nude dang phat ttien A • Phi - My Ladnh hien nay la nhJm dep can ngudn tai nguyen va thuc day su phu thudc kinh te bat ddi xung cua cac qugc gia nay vag Trung Qudc va qua dd de gia tang anh hudng chinh ttj ciia B4c Kinh, dinh hinh chinh sach del ngoai ciia hp thep each phu hgp vdi lgi ich qudc gia cua Trung Qudc"". Ben canh dd, Mattlin va Wigell cho rang cac chien luge dia
kinh t§ cung la phuong tien dien hinli dugc su dung bdi Trung Quoc va An Do nhim can bang mem vdi strc manh vugt trdi cua Hoa Ky"^^
iMpt sd nha nghien ctiii khac khi ban ve khai mem dia kinh te lai tap ttung vao khia canh mdi quan he giua dia kinh tg vii dia chinh tri, cho r ^ g day la hai khai niem cd mdi quan he chdng cheo, cd tfnh tuong tac qua lai va thuc day lan nhau. Theo Baru, dia kinh te nghien cthi mdi quan he giira chinh sach kinh te va su thay ddi ddi vdi quy^n luc qudc gia va dia chinh tri, Cir the, khai niem dia kinh te dirge cau thanh biM hai thanh td cdt ldi la "thugng mai theo sau la cd" va
"la eg theg sau thucmg mai", nghia la nhiing khuynh hudng bien dgng cua dia chinh tri va quyen luc qudc gia trong quan he qudc te se keo theo nhiing he qua ve kinh te va ngugc lai nhiing bien ddng kinh te Idn se dan tdi nhiing he qua dia chinh tti"". Cung theo Baru, dia kinh te la su tac ddng lan nhau giiia kinh te va dja chinh tri ma theo dd su gia tang hay suy giam siic manh kinh te ciia mgt qudc gia, khu vue cu the se co he qua tac dpng ve mat dia chinh tri. Baru lay dan chiing vg he qua dia chinh tri cua su sup dd va tan ra cua Lien Xd bat ngudn tti su suy sup kinh te cua sieu cudng nay. Tuy nhign, Baru ciing luu y rang siic manh dia kinh te ciia mdt qudc gia khdng tu dpng theo sau sue manh kinh te cua qudc gia do. Baru da dan chting trudng hgp sire manh va anh hudng quan su, chinh tri cua Nhat Ban tren thg gidi khong tuong ximg vdi site manh va tam anh hudng kinh tgcua no"*
O mdt gdc nhin khac, Scott eho rang, viec h e m soat cac tuyen giao thumg hang hai quoc
:::!*::^j^!'!f,™^^"'>*^«nhtev^dia
>»:m dia kinh tg vadia ngoai chinh tri"=i. Trong khi dd, Grosse
la su hgp nhEit cua cac mue tieu fenh';^' chinh tn va cho rang cac chien luoc doi riia f a r nli^ n-.A.^ „u^i. 11 . ^^
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thudng la su kit hgp cua viec triin khai ea siie manh kinh te va quan su''^'. Huntington tiii xem siic manh kinh t i va sire manh quan sir cd hin quan chat chi vdi nhau, tiieo dd, quyen lire kinh te se giiip cac qudc gia ed dugc lgi the ttong cdng nghe va ttd n i n manh me hon ve mat quan su"^.
Trong khi di theo trudng phai eua Luttwak ttongnhin nhdn ban chat eua dia kinh te. Black- will va Harris di nguoe lai vdi quan diem cua Luttwak khi luu y rang, cac cdng cu kinh t i va quan su ciing tdn tai, eung cd Idn nhau trong chinh sach va hanh vi doi ngoai ciia cac nha nude va viec sir dung chung nhu t h i nao tiiy thugc vdo nhan thue eua mdi nhd nude ve nhiing thach thire va muc tiiu cu t h i ma hg ddi mat va theo dudi "^'. Phan biit hai khai niim nay, hai ong eho rdng, dia chinh tri giai thieh va du doan quyen lue nha nude thdng qua mdt loat cac thong sd dia ly Min quan, nhu lanh thd, dan sd, thanh tuu kinh te, ngudn tai nguyen hay ndng luc quan su. Trong khi do, dia kinh t i giai thich each mot nha nude xdy dung va thuc thi quyen luc thdng qua cdc cdng eu kinh te"'^'.
Ben canh truong phai Luttwak la chu dao, ngay cang xuat hien nhOng quan diem khac voi Luttwakkhj ban ve khai niem dia kinh te. Trong so do, mot sd hpe gia tap trung giai thieh cac dieu kien dia ly dinh hinh vd quy dinh cdc h i qua kinh tinhuthe nao. Vidu, Kapyla va Mikkola eho rdng cac dieu kiin dia ly d Bdc Cue thiic day cac qude gia hgp tae vdi nhau vi ddi dau md si gay nii ro cho muc tieu kinh t i ciia nhau™, Mot sd nha nghiin eiiu thi dinh nghia dia kinh te thdng qua tim hiiu tac ddng cua cdc cau tnic vat chat trong khdng gian dia ly ddi vdi cae mdi quan he kinh te vol ben ngoai eua cac qude gia'^". Mot sd hgc gia khac di xa hon vdi trudng phai Luttwak khi lien he dia kinh te voi su tt6i day cua cde tde nhan moi mang tinh xuyin quoc gia cd anh hudng tdi
nhirng dgng luc kinh te va ehinh hi. Mercille cho rang, mac dii eac nha ehinh tri va cac thirong gia diu cd muc tieu ehung la su dn dinh eua he thdng kinh ti, nhung hp lai khac nhau ve cac phuang tiin theo duoi muc tieu thich hpp. Do vay, cac thuong nhan thi hanh ddng theo logic eiia dia kinh te, ttong khi cae ehinh tii gia hanh ddng theo logic dia chinh tri'^^'. Barton thi phdn biet ky nguyin dia ehinh trj la vi cac nhd nude ba quyen va su on dinh ttong quan h i qudc te, ttong khi ky nguyen dia kinh t i dupe ddc ttung boi cac chii the phi nhd nude mang tinh linh boat eao va nhiing mdi quan he xuyin qude gia khdng cd bien giai'^^'.
Trong khi do, Cowen va Smith thi chi ra dae trung eua thdi dai dia kinh t i la nin sdn xuat toan edu ngay cang dupe phdn doan, sir gia tang eiia eac tap doan xuyin qudc gia, cdc mdi de doa an ninh mang tinh xuyin biin gioi lanh thd'^"".
Mdt each tiep can khac vdi Luttwak trong dinh nghia dia kinh t i la dao ngupc nd ttr phuang tien thanh muc tiiu, theo do, nhan manh each md cdc nha nude sii dung stic manh cobdp va cac Ipi t h i dia chinh trj de dat dugc cac mue tiiu kinh t i trong quan h i qudc ti. O'Hara va Heffernan xem dia kinh te la tiem ndng cac ngudn tai nguyen thien nhien cua mdt qudc gia, khu vue va chiin luge ciia viic kiim soat vd kliai thae eae ngudn tai nguyen ndy'^^'. Youngs thi cho rdng, dia kinh t i ban luan xoay quanh viic nha nude sir dung cac cdng cu siic manh va lgi the ciia minh trong quan he qudc te de dat dugc cac mue tiiu kinh te'^'"'. Tuy vay, nhung ngudi theo quan diem nay cung liru y rdng, muc tiiu rdt cugc ciia dieu nay la gia tang sire manh tdng the qude gia trong canh tranh quyen lire qudc ti. Do do, chia klida de hieu dia kinh t i ehinh la cdc muc tiiu chinh tri an dau phia sau no'-''.
Trong khi nhirng quan diem khac vdi Luttwak tten day van chia se ca sd khoa hpc rdng Idn vdi
LYLUAN CHINH TRI-So 5/2019
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NGHIEN CifU - PHAT TRIEN LY LUAN Luttwak trong khai niem dia kinh te, gdc nhin ve dia kinh te ciia nhung ngudi theo trudng phai kien tao khde mgt each can ban vdi tat ca nhung quan diim dia kinh te tren day khi cho rdng eai ggi la dia kinh te chi la nhung diin ngdn Ide bip ve mat chien lupc mdt dja diem hoac khdng gian nao do ttong nen kinh te toan cdu hda, no khdng phai la mdt md ta khdch quan vi eae chien luoc khdng gian kinh te ma la mdt each nhin t h i gidi mang tinh chii quan ma theo dd cac chiin lupc dd dugc coi la hpp ly hay khdng hop ly'^"'. Chi xem dia kinh te nhu la nhimg diin ngdn mang tinh ehii quan, trudng phai kiin tao bo qua cac cau triic vat chat cd dnh hudng den quan he qudc t i ma khdng phu thudc vdo y mudn va suy nghia eua nhiing ngudi dien ngdn nd. Hon nira, trudng phai kiin tao eung khdng dua ra dupe each giai tiiich tdt hon, tiiuyet phuc hon trudng phai Luttwak vi tiiuat ngir dia kinh ti,Trin co sd ly tiiuyit va su phan tich cac quan diem, ttudng phdi khac nhau ve dia kinh t i nhu trin, cd the nit ra khdi niim dia kinh te nhu sau:
Dia kinh tela mot each tiep can cua khoa hoc chinh tri nghien cuv ve moi quan he tuang tac giua quyin luc cua quoc gia trong quan he quoc tevoi cac dieu kien dia ly va kinh te. Ndi ham kliai niem dia kinh t i duge tiie hten vdi hai khia canh:
Thu nliat. ve mat ly tiiuyet, nhu la mdt khung phdn tich hay mgt each tiip can trong phan tich quan he qudc Ie va chinli sdch ddi ngoai, dja kinh te nghien cuu mdi quan hi qua lai giira kinh te, dia ly vd chinh tri qudc te. Cu tiii ban, dia kmh t i nghien cihi tae dgng eiia cae dac diem va diiu kiin dia ly ddi vdi nen tang kinh te ciia quyen luc qudc gia, khu vue trong quan hi qudc ti.
O khia eanh ly thuyet, dia kinh t i cgng hudng, bd sung va ddng gdp cho nhung thieu khuyet trong gdc nhin cua chii nghia hiin thuc trong phdn tich ban chat cila ehinh tri qudc t i va ehinh
sdch ddi ngoai trong the gioi duong dai khi no cho rang cac dac tnmg dia ly dae thti ve khong gian vd dia diem cd vai trd trong dinh hinh quan h i qude t i va chinh sdch ddi ngoai. Nd eung nhan manh vai ttd ctia cae cdng cii kinh te trong canh tranh sue manh tuong ddi giiia eac nha nude thay vi de eao siic manh quan su va nhan manh yeu td phan bd strc manh gnia cae nhd nude trong he thdng qudc te nhu nhiing ngirdi tan hien thuc quan mem. Nhu mgt khudn khd phdn tieh, dia kmh te eung bo khuyet eho nhiing han ehe trong quan niem ciia chu nghia tu do, rdng su phu thudc kinh te lan nhau gitra cac qude gia trong thdi dai toan cau hda dan tdi viic cdc nhd nude se tir bd ehinh tri cudng quyen, theo dudi chinh sach doi ngoai hda binh, hgp tdc, cung phat triin.
Tha hai, ve mat thuc hdnh, nhu mdt chien luge chinh sdch ddi ngoai cua eae nha nuoc, dia kinh t i nghiin cuu viic sii dung cae cdng cu siic manh kinh te eua cac nha nude de hiin thuc hda cae mue tieu chien lupc ciia qudc gia ttong quan h i qude te (ndi bat Id mue tiiu quyen lire) gdn vdi khdng gian dia ly nhat dinh. Cac cdng cu dia kinh te chinh ma eac nude thudng sir dung, bao gdm: chinh sach thuong mai, ddu tu; tiling phat kinh te; chinh sach vien trg, tai chinh, tiin te;
chinh saeh ng, nang luong va hang hda... Rd rang la d i hiiu day dii va dung ddn eac mdi quan he qudc t i trong tiie gidi duang dai ddi hdi su hieu biit ve vai tro cua cdc cdng cu kinh te khde nhau vavieecdcnhanudcsudungcaccdngcuddnliu the nao de theo dudi cac muc tiiu chiin luoc eua minh trong quan he qudc ti,
2, M6i quan he giua dia kinh ti vi, dia cninh tr!
Tir nhirng phan tich kliai niem va n-- h- tren day, cd the rut ra mdt sd khia canh quanhegiiradiakinhtgva dia chinh tti n l ; ^ ™ !
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Mot la, dia kinh tiva dia cbinh tri co moi quan he bien chiing, tac dong qua lai va gdn bo chat che vmnhau. Mdi quan h i gifra dia kinh t i va dia chinh tri gdn bd tdi miic nhu Scholvin va Wigell da chi ra la nhieu hpe gia thuong khdng lam rd ranh gidi giua hai pham trir nay^^'. Caeh hieu pho bien nhat dugc nhiiu hpc gia de cap, do la dia kinh t i ndm trong pham trii dia chinh tri rpng Idn, theo do dia kinh te la viee sir dung cdc cdng cu kinh t i de thuc day cdc muc tieu dia chinh tri™. O khia canh nay, ed the dan ra hang loat cac vi du ttong thuc tiin quan he qudc t i d i ehung minh. Ke hoach Marshall cua My d chdu Au sau the chien II b i ngoai la mdt du an dia kinh t i nhung cd muc tieu dia chinh tri rd rang. Viec Nga de dga ddng cac dudng dng cung cap dau md va khi ddt cho EU va mot sd nude tiiupe Lien Xd eu gitra mtia ddng lanh gia nhu mdt ddn bay dia chinh tri ttong mdi quan he vdi cdc nude ndy.
Viic Trung Qudc dtmg xuat khau dat hiim sang Nhat Ban d i gay dp lue vi van d i chii quyen a bien Hoa Ddng. Cdc chien lupc vien trpva dau tu ha tang ciia Trung Qudc d chau A va ehdu Phi Cling nhdm tdi cdc muc tieu anh hirong dia ehinh tri rd ret. Hang loat cdc dap thiiy diin duoc Trung Qudc xdy dung trin thugng ngudn ddng Me Kdng khdng chi don thuan mang yeu td kinh t i ma cd thi dugc Trung Quoe sir dung nhu ddn bay dia chinh tri ttong mdi quan h i vdi cdc qude gia ha ngudn 6' Ddng Nam A. Canh tranh dnh huong dia chinh tri My - Trung trin toan cau va oAn Dp - Thai Binh Duong hien nay dupe biiu hien rd nhat khdng phdi thdng qua y thuc h i hay sire manh vd khi ma la tren linh vue kinh te - thirong mai va su thdng bai cua cuoc dua kinh te dudng nhu si quyit dinh thdng bai ctia canh tranh dia chinh tri d khu vire. Dir an dia kinli t i
"Vanh dai va Con dudng" ciia Tap Can Binh mang bdng dang mpt du an dia chinli tii Idn cua
Trung Qude, trong khi dd, du an TPP cita Obama cung chira dung chien lupc dia ehinh tri rd ret.
Nhu vay, hai dai ehiin luoc khu vue nay cua My va Trung Qudc la su hda trdn khd tach biit cd thanh phan dia kinh te va ehiin lupc dia chinh tri. Cude chien ttanh thuong mai My - Tmng hiin nay khdng ehi don tiiuan mang yiu td kinh te md tiie hien mau sdc cua canh ttanh sue manh va ddi ddu dia chinh tri giira mgt cudng qudc dang ttdi day vdi mdt eudng qude dang ddng vai trd lanh dao t h i gidi. Y nghia ciia viee Viet Nam tham gia CPTPP ciing khdng ehi hudng tdi tim kiim edc loi ich kinh t i ma edn ndm ttong chien luge da dang hda quan he kinh te thuang mai vdi cdc doi tdc trin the gidi, tranh su phu thupc vao kinh te Trung Qudc. Hon nira, nd eung mang lai ddn bay dia chinh tri vd an ninh cho Viet Nam.
Dia kinh te cung dupe xem nhu la muc tiiu thay vi phuang tien eiia cac nha nude ttong quan h i qudc te. Tren thue ti, lgi the vi tti dia chinh tri thuan lgi hay tiem ndng tai nguyin chien luge cua mdt qudc gia, khu vue anh huong tdi tiem nang va xu t h i phat trien cua qude gia, khu vue dd, ddng tiidi cung tao ra gia tri va vi the dia chinh tri ciia qude gia, khu vue mang tiiih ddn bay cho sp phdt trien siic manh qude gia va vi the qudc ti.
Vi nhu vi tri an ngii ldi vao eo bien Malacca ciia Singapore hay ngudn du tni dau mo khdng Id ciia Saudi Arabia, Venezuela hay Iran mang lai tiem ndng vd cohdi dia kinh te to Idn eho nhimg qude gia nay, ddng thdi nd gia tang vi t h i va sire nang dia ehinh tn cho hp ttong quan h i qudc ti.
Hai la, nhan to dia kinli tengay cang gia tang sue nang va tam quan trpng trong chlnh tri qudc te. Mdt tiiuc tiin chinh tri qude te khd ed Uii phu nhan la stic manh kinh te la yiu td then chdt quyet dinh sue manh tdng hpp vd vi tiii dia chinh tri ciia qude gia, khu vue trong quan he qude te cung nhu ttong dinh hinh ttat tpqude te, khu vue.
LYLUAN CHINH TRI-So 5/2019
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Ndi each khac, nhung bien ddi vi tuong quan sire manh kinh t i se ddn tdi phdn bd lai sue manh ttong he thdng qude te va do dd ddn tdi nhirng ddo lgn va dich chuyin dia chinh tn. Su ttdi day cua Trung Qudc xuat phdt hi siie manh kinh te qude gia da lam dao lgn cau tnic va trat tu dia kinh te vd chinh tri loan edu, ttr dd giiip Bde Kinh tim each tiiay ddi lai trat ty dia kinh te vd ehinh tri khu vue, the gidi phd hgp vdi mong mudn va loi ieh ehien lupc cua hp. Sd di tiling tam kinh te va ehinh tn toan can dang dieh ehuyin manh vi khu vue chau A-Thai Binh Duong trudc hit bat nguon ttr su gia tang nhanh chdng sire manli kinh te ciia khu vue ttong nen kinh titoan eau, ttr do, gia tang tdm quan ttgng dia chinh tri eiia khu vue. Tam quan trong chiin luge ngdy cdng tdng cua Bien Ddng vdi ngudn tai nguyen phong phu va la tuyih hang hai ttgng yeu cua tiie gidi da lam cho ttanh chap va cang thang dia chinh tri d Biin Ddng ngay cang phiic tap, Ciing vay, tdm quan ttong dia chinh tti ngay cang tang ciia Bde Cue la bdi biin ddi khi hau da lam cho giao tiiuong tten Bdc Bang Duong ttd nin di ddng hon va trien vgng khai tilde nguon tai nguyen ddu khi 6 day ttdnen rd rang ban. Mot nguyen nhdn quan ttong khien Tmng Ddng luon ed tam quan trgng dia ehinh tti va la noi canh iranh chien luge giua cdc nuw Idn Id bdi kiem soat dupe khu xijc nay se kiim sodt an ninli ndng luong tiie gidi, va qua do tac ddng Ion tdi eanh ttanh siic manh va dinh hinh trat tu qudc te. Viec ASEAN hpi nhap tiianh mdt cpng ddng khu vue vdi tdng GDP 2.400 ty USD va tiii trudng ban 600 tiieu dan, cimg vdi viec ndm d\'i tri chien luge ttgng yeu da giup gia tang vi tiie dia cliinh tti eho khu vue ttong quan hi quoc te,
Ba la, bien dong va dao Ion dia chinh tri se tac dongden dia kmh te. Tdc ddng cua bien dgng dia ehinh tri ddi vdi ehuyen biin dia kinh t i thi hien d chd nd cd tiii lam gia tang hay suy giam loi t h i
va siic manh eua cac cdng cu kinh te eua mpt qude gia hay khu vire ttong quan h i qude te. Sir sup dd ciia Lien Xd da dan tdi nhirng he qua to Idn ve dia kinh t i ddi vdi nude Nga ttong thap ky 90 cua the ky trude. Viic Tnmg Qudc bdt tay vai My va phuong Tay, binh thirdnghoa quan he vdi Nhdt Ban ttong nhung nam 1970 la mgt nhan td then chdt eho tien ttinh eai each md eiia thanh edng CLia Tnmg Qudc va dan tdi nhiing dao lgn dia kinh t i dot vdi Trung Qude va toan khu virc.
Vi tiii dia chinh tri ngay eang quan ttpng ciia Viit Nam ttong bdi canh khu vue hien nay cung duac xem nhu mdt lgi tiie va thdi ea Idn eho Viet Nam nhdm nang cao siic manh quoc gia va thue day cac Igi ieh dia kinh te va chinh tti chien lupc ttong quan he qude te. Niu du an kinh dao Kra di qua eo dat mien Nam Thai Lan duoc hien thuc hda ttong nhiing ndm tdi ehde chdn si lam suy giam rd rit Ipi t h i dia kinh te ciia eac qudc gia xung quanh khu vue eo bien Malacca, ddng thdi lam gia tang sire ndng va loi tiie dia kinh te va chinh tri eho Thai Lan, Campuchia va Viet Nam.
3. Boi canh toan cau hoa hien nay tao ra nhung yiu to tac dpng ro ret toi ni6i quan he giua dja chinh tri va dia kinh t^
Thu nhat. moi quan be giua dia kmh teva dia chinh tii ngay cang gin bochatche va danxen vao nhau klio tach biet rach roi trong toan cau hoa.
Mpt ttong nhung dac diim quan ttong nhat eua toancduhdaldsudanxenlpiiehvaphuthudelan nhau ngdy eang chat che giira cac qude gia, khu vue eung nhu vai ttd va tde dong ngay cang rd ret ciiaeaeluelugngdaqudcgia,xuyenqudcgialam chonhantdkmhtivachinhtt!,mditni™gtrong nuoc va qudcte, loi ieh qude gia valoi Ich qudc t i ngay cang gdn kit chat ehe vdi nhau. Do su phu mugclannhauvikmhti,tiiucmglan.angtt/b^
doi xung nin nha nude nay cd tiii l^m u
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quan he kinh ti, tir do ma dat dupe eae muc tieu chinh di. Han mia, sir phti thupc lan nhau mdt each bat ddi xiing gia tdnglam gia tang tinh d i tdn thirong vi kinh te va chinh tti ciia eae qudc gia, nhat la ciia eae nude nho, dang phat triin. Nhiing biin ddng dia kinh t i cd tiie nhanh chdng ddn toi nhung bien dpng dia chinh tri vd ngugc lai. Vi the, viic xti ly cdc van d i dia ehinh tri vd dja kinh t i trong quan h i qude t i ttd nen dac biit nhay cam, doi hdi su can ttpng va linh boat han. Chang ban, viec xir ly nhirng man thuan, ttanh chap tten Bien Ddng ciia mdt sd nude ASEAN vdi Tnmg Qude ttd nin khd khan va phiic tap hon bdi su phu thupc kinh te gia tdng oia cdc nude nay vao Trung Qudc.
Cac nude EU ciing khd ldng img hp My gia tdng ap luc cam van va ed lap Nga tten vdn d i Ukraina boi chinh nhiing tdn thirong ma EU cd the phai ganh chiu ttr nhiing hanh ddng dd.
Hai la, toan cau hoa lam gia tang tam quan trongcuanhan tddiakinh tetrongchinh triqudc tecdng nhir trong mdi quan he nhan qui voi canh tranh dia chinh trf. Chiin tranh lanh ket thiic, canh tranh y thiic he vd siic manh quan sir dupe thay thi bdng eanh tranh sice manh kinh ti, thii bae eiia cdc qude gia trong he thdng the gidi dupe xdc dinh trudc bet bdi siic manh kinh ti, lgi ich qudc gia ehi phdi quan h i qude te da khien nhan td kinh te diing d trung tam thay t h i eho cac tinh toan vi chiin luac, chinh tri hay quan sir tiiiyen tiidng vdn ehi phoi ehinh saeh ddi ngoai cua cae qudc gia va ehinh tri qudc te. Sir phat trien nhu vu bao cua cdng nghe va thuong mai frong toan edu hda cang lam ndi bat vai trd ciia dia kinh te ttong eudc dua ttanh stic manh qudc gia. Trong mdi trudng qudc t i dd, mdc dii ehinh tri cudng quyen va sire manh quan sir khdng mat di vai fro eiia nd, nhung siic manh kinh te, cdng nghe va vi the thirong mai ciia cde qudc gia ttd nen quan ttpng hon. Trong euge dua canh tranh
quyin lire loan eau My - Trung hien nay, yiu td kinh te se ddng vai trd then chdt vd tham ehi mang tinh quyi't dinh. Do su phu tiiugc Idn nhau giua hai b i n ngay cang chat che, cae cdng cu kinh t i se trd tiianh vu klii Ipi hai dugc hai ben triet de sir dung trong cupe dua tranh siie manh va dnh hudng todn eau cung nhu kiim che lan nhau thay VI ddi dau ehinh tri vd chay dua vti trang nhu trong thdi ky chiin tranh lanh trudc ddy.
Ba la, toan cau hoa md rpng pham vi va gia tang tdc dp tac dong cua nhOng bidn dong dia chinh tri va dia kinh tdcUngnhusu tuong tac cua hai nhan td do. Toan cdu hda da bien t h i gidi thanh mot chinh thi thdng nhat ma a dd mpi qude gia, khu vue deu phii thude vdo nhau vd chiu su tuong tac manh m i vdi nhau. Do do, mpi bien ddng dja ehinh tri bode dja kinh t i a mdt noi nao do ed thi tae ddng nhanh chdng, vdi pham vi rdng Idn tdi nhieu qudc gia, khu vue va thdm chi toan cau. Canh tranh dia chinh tri My - Trung d An Dp-Thdi Binh Duongva cude chien thuong mai My - Trung hien nay tac ddng tdi tiiuong mai vd kinh titoan can, ddng thdi nd tae ddng tdi ea viee tap hop luc lupng khu vue, tiii gidi va qua trinh dinh hinh trat tu khu vue va qude t i sdp tdi. Cugc khimg hoang tai ehinh, tien tiehduA (1997-1998) da nhanh chdng Ian rdng, ddn tdi nhung bien ddng kinh ti, chinh tri d nhieu quoe gia, lam suy giam sue manh ciia nhiiu qudc gia ttong khi gia tdng manh me vi tiie va siic ndng dia kinh te vd ehinh tri cho mdt sd qudc gia khae ma Tmng Qudc la mgt vi du.
Tren thuc ti, mac dti ban ehat ciia chinh til qudc te van chju su chi phdi ciia ehinh tri cudng quyin, su'C manh qudn su vdn khdng mat di y nghia trong ehinh tri qude te, nhung trong bdi canh toan eau hda hien nay, canh tranh stic manh tdng hpp ciia qudc gia ma siic manh kinh ti, cdng eu kinh t i layiu td Hung tdm, mang tinh
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NGHIEN CU'U - PHAT TRIEN i V L U A N quyit dinh da ttd thanh nit ndi bat eiia quan he qudc te trong thdi dai toan cau boa, Trin khia eanh tap hpp lire lugng toan cau hiin nay, mdt the gidi eua cdc lien minh kmh te, eae khdi kinh te thuang mai, cae FTA song phuong, da phuang, edc sdng kien hdi nhdp va hpp tdc kinh tikhu vue, Hin khu vue dang ndi lin manh me, tiiay the eho mdt tiie gidi cita cac khdi liin minh chinh tri quan su doi ddu nhau ttong ehien ttanh lanh, Toan cau hda lam cho dja kinh t i trd thdnh edng cu quan trpng va huu hieu de hda giai eae thach tiiiic dia chinh tri, ttong khi tdi nguyen dia chinh tri lai co the lam gia tdng eae Ipi ieh va ddn bay dia kinh te cho cac qudc gia. Bdi cdnh mdi do cua tinh hinh qudc t i ehiia dung thach thire Idn ve su tut hau kinh te, ve nguy co phu thugc vi kinh t i va chinh tri nhung eung tao ra nhiiu dieu kiin thuan loi cho eae nude vira vd nho nang cao vi the qude gia, ddng thdi gdp phan dinh hmh mdi trudng dia kinh te vd chinh tri khu vue dudi cdc hinh thiic khac nhau D(1), (2) Tran Khanh: "Ban ve khai niem dia cliinh tn". Ban tin Nhimg van dely luan phuc vu lanii dao. Hoc vien Chinh tri qudc gia Hd Chi Minh, sd 1 /2019, tt.12-25.
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