Nhu c a u tieu thu n a n g l u o n g t h e gidi tdi n a m 2030
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ao cud'i thang 3, dng Glen Roller, Chii tich Tdp dodn ExxonMobil Russia, khi phdt bieu tai tmdng Dai hgc Cao ddng kinh te, da dua ra dy dodn ve sy phdt trien ciia ngdnh nang lugng the gidi tdi nam 2030. Theo cdc tinh todn ciia tdp doan nay, tdi nam 2030, nhu cdu ve cdc nguon nang lugng tren the' gidi tang 16n 35% so vdi nam 2005.Khu vyc ti6u thu nang lugng chii yeu la chau A, dac biet la Tmng Qud'c va An Do, 2 qud'c gia dang phdt trien vdi tdc do rdt cao.
Theo cdc dy bdo, GDP ciia cdc nudc khdng gia nhdp Td chirc hgp tac va phdt trien kinh te (OECD) s6 tang vdi tdc do tmng binh 5%/nam, cdn GDP ciia cac nudc thdnh vien OECD — se tang khoang 2%/nam.
Nhu cau ve cdc nguon nang lugng tai cac nudc khdng gia nhdp OECD cao hon nhu cdu ciia cac nudc phdt trien tdi 75%. Nguyen nhan chii yeu d day khdng chi la do tdc do phdt trien ciia cac nen kinh te, md cdn do d cdc nudc phdt trien ngudi ta ap dung ngay cang nhi6u cac cdng nghe sir dyng nang lugng cd hieu qua, bti ddp lai mdt phan dang ke nhu cdu dang tang len ve nang lugng.
Tr6n thyc te, xu hudng ndy se di6n ra d mgi linh vyc. Chdng ban.
sy gia tang thu nhdp d cdc hd kinh te gia dinh cd the s6 ddn tdi sy gia tang 50% nhu cdu ve nang lugng trong linh vyc dich vu nhd d. Tuy nhien, viec nang cao hieu qud sir dung cdc nguon nang lugng d cac nudc phdt trien se ki6m che nhu cdu ndy. Tap dodn ExxonMobil Russia dy doan sy gia tang nhu cau tr6n the gidi v6 nang lugng tir phia ngdnh dich vy nhd d chi tdi 20%.
Ngdnh dien Id nhd ti6u dting
N6n kinh ti thi gidi dang din din vuot qua nhung hau qua cua khung hoang, bat diu dot tang trudng mdi. Su tang trudng duoc ky vong cua n6n san x u i t thi gidi dang tao ra nhu ciu ngay cang tang len v§ cac ngudn nang luong, tuy nhien d cac khu vuc tren th§ gidi, nhu ciu tang len r i t khac nhau.
cdng nghiep ldn nha't cdc nguon nang lugng. Theo dy dodn ciia ong Glen Roller, tcM nam 2015, nhtrng nudc khdng gia nhap OECD, cd nhu cau ve dien nang nhieu hon cac nudc phat trien, dang day manh dp dung cdc cdng nghe tiet kiem nang lucpng. Tdi nam 2030, tmng binh tr6n the gidi, ngdnh dien gia tang sir dung cac nguon nang lugng la 2,4%/nam. T\- 16 cdc loai nguy6n nhien lieu dugc sir dung trong sdn xudt dien dan dan s6 thay ddi. O miic do dang ke, ty 16 nay se dugc xdc dinh bdi chinh sach nhdm gidm bdt khi thdi C02 vd cdc loai khi khac. Viec thyc hien ch6' do phdi tra tien ddi \ai khi thai C02 iam cho viec sir dung than se ddt len dang ke. Hien na\', loai nhi6n lieu nay bao ddm 2/3 nhu cdu ve dien ciia My va gan 609'o nhu cau ve dien tren the' gidi. Tuy nhien, theo mirc dg tang 16n ciia viec tra tien vi khi thdi C02, than bat ddu mat di kha nang canh tranh. nhudng thi phdn ngdy cang ldn cho Ichi ddt. nang lugng nguy6n tir va cdc ngudn nang lucmg tdi sinh.
Theo dy dodn. tdi nam 2030, nang Iuc)ng ngu\'6n tir vd cdc ngudn nang lugng tdi sinh s6 chie'm 40% thi trudng nang lugng dien ciia th6' gicii.
O cdc nudc dang phdt trien, khdng tuyen bd ddu tranh vdi sy bien ddi khi hdu, ngudi ta se tiep tuc sir dung than. Do dd, d Tap dodn Exxon.Mobil Russia ngudi ta dy dodn nhu cdu v6 khi dot ciia the gidi se tang len 35%, cdn than
la 20%.
Tuy nhien, hien nay khdng the chd dgi nhting thay ddi can bdn tr6n thi trudng nang lugng the gidi.
Cac loai nhi6n lieu hda thach - ddu md, khi ddt ty nhien vd than
— nhu trudc day vdn la cdc loai nhi6n lieu chii y6'u. Ty 16 cac loai nhi6n lieu nay tr6n thi trudng nguyen nhien lieu se gidm khdng dang ke - den nam 2030 tir 82%
xud'ng 80%. Quy md sir dung cac loai nguyen nhien lieu ndy ldn tdi muc vdi miic do phdt trie'n ky thudt - cdng nghe hien nay thi chdng CO gi cd the thay th6' dugc.
Theo dy doan ciia cac chuy6n gia Tap dodn ExxonMobil, ngdnh giao thdng van tdi — ngdnh tieu thu nhien lieu ldn thii hai sau ngdnh nang lugng - trong 20 nam tdi, nhu cdu cua ngdnh nay s6 tang 16n 40%.
Mac dil ngudi ta hy vgng, tdi nam 2030, sd dtd con chay tren dudng se khdng virgt qud 400 trieu chie'c, nhung CO sd ciia sy ti6u diing nhien lieu s6 id ngdnh hdng khdng, tdu thuy, dudng sdt vd ngdnh van tdi thuong mai d cdc ben cdng.
Ngdnh van tdi thuong mai d cdc ben cdng se ti6u diing nhien lieu nhi6u ban 60% so vdi nam 2005. Sy gia tang tiet kiem nang lugng, xu hudng tiet kiem cua cdc hd kinh te gia dinh se bii lai sy gia tang ti6u thy cdc nguon nang lugng trong khu vyc van tdi bdng xe dtd con.
Viec nay se dan tdi tinh trang, d My
So 331 (6/2011) KINHTECHAU A-THAI BiNH DUONG
23
Quan sat
Observationnhu cdu v6 nguy6n nhien lieu dd'i vdi xe con s6 gidm tdi 20%, d chdu Au Id 30%, vd chi d khu vyc chau A — Thdi Binh Duong, nai ma thu nhdp ciia dan chiing tang len ddn tdi viec so ngudi thich mua dtd tang dot bie'n, nhu cau v6 nguyen nhi6n lieu tang len de'n 80%.
Den nam 2030, nganh cdng nghiep cua th6' gidi cung s6 ti6u diing nhieu nguy6n nhi6n lieu ban, tuy nhien, nhu cdu tang 16n d cdc nganh khdng nhu nhau. Chdng ban, nhd ndng cao hieu qua sir dyng nang lugng vd gidm bdt khdi lugng nhien lieu ddt chdy, viec sir dung nang lugng trong nganh dien nang Id khdng thay ddi. Chinh ngdnh cdng nghiep se dem lai phdn ldn nhat ciia nhu cdu tang 16n v6 khi ddt ty nhi6n va dien.
Theo ddnh gid ciia Tap dodn ExxonMobil, viec cdc nudc phdt trien dan dan chuyen sang sir dyng cdc loai nguy6n nhi6n lieu sach ban, s6 Idm gidm lugng khi thai C02. O cdc nudc OECD, tuy sdn xuat phdt trien vd dan cu tang 16n, nhung lugng khi thdi C02 trd Iai mirc ciia nam 1980.
Ong Vladimir Drebentsov, Phd Chii tich Tdp dodn BP (Nga), nhd kinh te hdng dau cua BP phu trdch khu vyc Nga vd cdc nudc thudc Cdng dong cdc qud'c gia ddc lap (SNG), dong y vdi dy bdo cdc xu hudng chii yeu ke tr6n.
Q Tdp dodn BP, ngudi ta chd dgi trong 20 nam tdi viec sii dyng nang lugng sa cap s6 tang len 39% vdi dieu kien nhip do tang tmdng tmng binh mdi nam la 1,7%. Trong phdn ldn cac xu hudng, dy dodn ciia Tap doan ExxonMobil vd Tap dodn BP la gid'ng nhau — cdc nudc thanh vi6n OECD se Id nhtrng nudc di dau trong viec sir dung nang lugng. Theo so lieu ciia dng Drebentsov, nam 2030, cac nudc nay s6 tieu diing nang lugng nhieu ban hien nay 6%.
Ngudn nguyen nhien lieu tr6n the gidi s6 dugc thay th6' tir ttr, tuy nhi6n, khi ddt ty nhien vd cdc nguon nguy6n nhi6n lieu khdng phai Id hda thach s6 ddn ddn chie'm Ilnh thi tmdng cua than vd ddu md.
Trong nguy6n nhi6n lieu hda thach, khi ddt se tang cao nhdt
— 2,1%/nam. Tinh hinh nay budc Nga phdi suy nghl ve khd nang canh tranh ciia nganh khi ddt ciia minh. Trudc mat, tuong lai khi ddt cua Nga Id dn dinh, tuy nhi6n day chi Id trudc mat. Thi trudng khi dot the gidi s6 thay ddi rat nhanh.
Ong Glen Roller nhan dinh, trong thdi gian sap tdi. My se khdng cdn Id mdt trong sd nhting nudc nhap khdu khi ddt Idn nha't nira, bdi vi viec khai thdc khi ddt tir phien thach ciia My dang phdt trien rat nhanh. Trien vgng sau 10 nam nfra. My hodn todn cd the tir nudc nhdp khdu trd thdnh nudc xudt khau khi dot.
Viec nay ldm thay ddi thi tmdng khi dot vd s6 Idm cho khi dot cua Nga it cd khd nang canh tranh ban.
Ong Drebentsov cung cd quan diem nhu vdy. Trong 2 nam gdn ddy, Nga khai thdc khi ddt It ban My. Nga khai thdc d mirc thdp nhu vdy Id do My dang ddy manh phdt trien cdc nguon nang lugng phi tmyen thdng. Do dd, hien nay su canh tranh de gidnh ngudi tieu diing tren thi tmdng khi ddt la rat Idn, vd 20 nam nua, canh tranh vdn tang I6n. Ngay ttr bdy gid "Gazprom" can phdi nghi6m tile suy nghi ve chien luge canh tranh ciia minh./.
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htrng quy ddu tu Idn nhu Leopard Capital — cdng ty khdi ddng quy dau tu ti6m nang len tdi 100 trieu USD ddnh ri6ng cho thi trudng Campuchia tir nam 2008, vd da thu hiit dugc gdn 34 trieu USD - gid ddy da tim tha'y nhirng lgi ich mdi tai qud'c gia ndy.Leopard Capital vdn de ngd cdnh cira tham gia quy ndy, trong khi nhieu cdng ty khu vyc khdc da bdt dau phdt hien thdy ca hdi.
Thdng 1/2011, cdng ty qudn ly quy ddu tu ldn nhat Viet Nam, Vinacapital Investment Management, thdng bdo se md rdng kinh doanh sang Campuchia vdi cam ket ddu tu 100 trieu USD, trong khi dang nd lyc xay dyng mgt quy ddu tu chii trgng vdo cdc linh vyc bat ddng sdn, co sd ha tang, benh vien vd ndng nghiep. Gidm ddc dieu hdnh Tmng tam nghi6n ctiu quy ddu tu tu nhdn chdu A, Kathleen Ng nhan dinh: "Be ngodi, day dugc coi Id mgt co hdi ldn. Hien dang cd nhieu mdi quan tdm ldn trong viec dua cdc quy ddu tu vdo Nam A, nhu Xri Lanca, Ldo vd Campuchia. Chiing tdi thdy nhi6u quy dau tu, dac biet ttr Viet Nam da bat ddu cd xu hudng phan viing. Da cd cdm nhan v^
mdt ca hdi mdi khi mdt sd quy dang huy ddng vdn khd thudn lgi, dac biet Id Leopard Capital, cdng ty da thu hiit vugt mirc vd'n trong nam 2010".
Hien nhting quy dau tu hiing manh ban nhu Frontier Investment &
Development Fund va Cambodia Emerald fund cting dang dat myc ti6u thu hut lan lugt 250 trieu vd 100 trieu USD. Gidm ddc dieu hdnh Leopard Capital Campuchia, Douglas Clayton cho bie't quy ciia dng dang thu ldi vdi ty 16 tir 25 - 30% vdn ddu tu, cho dil so vd'n dau tu tuong dd'i nhd so vdi quy md thi tmdng khu vyc. Gidm ddc Clayton tiet Id: "Dd Id thdnh qua chiing toi dat dugc sau nhting lan bdn lai dy dn cho tdi nay. Chiing tdi da ddu tu 10 dy an vd bdn Iai 2". Leopard Capital Campuchia udc lugng rdng mdt vy dau tu thiiy dien d Campuchia cd the cho miic Idi tdi 66%
sau khi bdn lai mdt phdn dy dn, trong khi thuong vu mua CamGSM, hang dich vu di dgng ddu ti6n tai Campuchia, da cho thay ty 16 lgi nhuan ban ddu ttr 25 - 30%.
Gidm ddc Clayton ddnh gia rdng Campuchia dugc xdc dinh Id se phdt trien
