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PHAN TiCH M d i OURN Hf THRM HUT N G A N SriCH VJ^CnC BICN VT MO: NGHICN CUU THUC NGHICM TRI VI€T NRM
Ths. Trinh Thi Trinh Ths. Le Phirovg Dung**
Nguyen Thj Thiiy Trang*"
Tom tat: Bdi viit ndy nhdm xdc dinh mdi quan hi giira thdm hut ngdn sdch vd cdc bien sd vimd. DU lieu cua md hinh dugc thu thdp tit dnphdm Chdu A Thdi Binh Duang ndm 2013.
Bdng cdch sir dung dir lieu chuoi thai gian tir ndm 1990 den 2012 vdi ky thugt phdn lich theo mo hinh tu hdi quy vecta (Vector autoregressign), kit qud nghien cuu thirc nghiem cho thdy nhdn td lgm phdt, ti gid hdi dodi, chi tiiu chinh phu vd ldi sudt cd dnh hudng din thdm hytt ngdn sdch, cdn nhdn td thui khong dnh hudng din thdm hut ngdn sdch a Viet Nam. Kit qua ndy phu hgp vd gidng kit qud nghiin ciru cita cdc tdc gid Knoester vd Mak (1994), Beck (1993), Knoester vd Mak (1994) nghien cuu tren thi trudng cdc nude chdu Au.
Tir khda: thdm hut ngdn sdch, md hinh VAR, biin sd vTmd.
Mdi quan he giiia tham hut ngan sach vd cdc bien kinh te vT md (nhu tang trudng, lai suat, thdm hyt thuang mgi, ti gid hdi dodi, vd eae biln sd vl md khdc) la mdt tiong nhiing chu de tianh ludn rdng rai nhat ciia cdc nha kinh te va cac nha hogch dinh chinh sdch d eae nuoc phdt trien vd dang phdt triln. Tir nhirng nam 1990, cdc nude chdu Au nhu Thyy Dien vd Dan Mgch ciing phdi ddi dien vdi tinh hudng tham hut ngan sdch vd cae nude tien the gidi deu ludn ludn phdn ddu dl dat myc tieu qudc gia la cd nhilu viec Iam, tdc dp tang trudng cao vd lgm phat thdp. Tuy
Ths, D^i hgc Dk NSng ' Ths, D^ihgcDit N l n g
C6ng ty c6 ph^n xSy dyng Lighthouse, D^ NSng
nhien, cd rat it qudc gia thanh cdng ttong viec tgo the can bang giiia cdc muc tieu kinh tl vT md va vi md. Do do, phat sinh eau hdi;
"Tgi sao mgt sd nude lgi ngheo, cdn mot so nuac lgi rdt gidu?" Hoac "Ly do ndo md mgt so nude phdt triin nhanh han so v&i nhimg nude khdc?" Su can bdng giiia cdc muc tieu kinh te vi md - hieu qua va vdn chii sd hiru; va cdc muc tieu kinh tl vT md - dn dinh gia cd, viec lam ddy du vd tang trudng thudng van chi xay ra trong dilu kien Iy tudng. Nhu vdy, khai niem vl tham hut ngan sach da tid thdnh mot van de xa hdi vd chinh tri Idn. Cdc nhd hogch dinh chinh sdch cua cac nude dang phdt triln nhu Viet Nam ciln phai rdt can than tiong vipe xdy dung cdc chinh sach vd xdy dung ngan sdch.
fj)hdn. iUh ntdi. quajt he^.. 79
Neu mpt qudc gia phdi ddi mdt vdi vdn dl tham hyt ngan sach thi kit qua ldm gidm tiet kipm qudc gia cd Iinh vye cdng vd tu, do dd s€ day lai suat cao vd chen ep ddu tu.
Trong mdt nen kinh te md, ngudn cung gidm vdn vay dan den lai suat cao ban va se ddn din gidm ddu tu nude ngoai. Lai suat cao hon ciing thu hiit cdc nhd ddu tu nude ngoai, nhung ngudi mudn kiem dupe Ipi nhugn cao hon. Do dd, thdm hut ngdn saeh Iam tang lai sudt (cd ttong vd ngoai nude) dan den dau tu nude ngodi rdng gidm. Bdi vi ddu tu nuoc ngodi rdng gidm, ngudi ddn cdn it ngoai te de mua tdi sdn nude ngoai va do dd ti gia hdi dodi thyc dupe danh gid cao. Nhu vay, tiong nen kinh tl md, thdm hyt ngan sach ehinh phii ldm tdng lai sudt thyc, Idn ddu tu ttong nude, tham hyt thuong mai tiep tyc xau di.
Miic thue (thue thu nhdp, thue doanh nghipp...) va tham hut ngan sdch Id mdt ttong nhung thudc do de ddnh gia siic khde ciia nln kinh tl qudc gia. Vl van de ndy, bai vilt ndy se cd gdng nghien ciiu mdi quan hp cua thdm hyt ngdn saeh voi cac bien sd kinh tl vT md khac nhu ti gia hdi dodi, lgm phdt, chi tieu chinh phu, ldi sudt va thue bang vi?c sii dyng dii li^u chuoi thdi gian tu ndm 1990 den ndm 2012 d Viet Nam.
1. Cic nghien cuu t h ^ nghi|m tir cdc nird% chau Au v& cAc nirdrc khic
l.NhSntoiaisuit
Tren thi gidi, cdc ket qua nghien ciiu thyc nghi$m dua ra kit qud mau thuan vd
khdng nhat quan ve mdi quan he giira tham hyt ngan sach va lai suat. Evans (1985, 1987) va Barro (1987) dd tim thdy khdng cd mdi quan hp nhdn qua giiia thdm hyt ngdn sdch vd lai sudt d My. Mat khdc, Hoelscher (1986) vd Cebula vd Koch (1989) cho thay tham hut ngan sach Lien bang da gdp phan vdo miic dd cao hon ve ldi suat. Knoester va Mak (1994) cho thay chi cd d Diic (ndm tiong sd 8 nen kinh te OECD) Id thdm hut ngdn sdch chinh phu ddng gdp ddng ke vao su gidi thich ve lai suat cao hon.
Evans (1985) cho thdy tham hyt ngan sach Lien bang dnh hudng den chi tieu qudc gia vd lai sudt, tiong khi Bemheim (1989) tim thay bang chiing ngupc lai. Bat ke cdc nghien ciiu khdc nhau, thuc te la sy hipn dien cua thdm hyt ngdn sdch Idn d cd cac qudc gia phdt trien vd dang phat trien da dnh hudng xau den tdng trudng kinh tl. Kristen vd Felix (2004) nghien ciiu mdi quan he giua tham hyt ngdn sdch vd lai suat d ba nude Phdp, Due vd My tir nam 1994 din ndm 2004, nhung ket qua cho thay khdng cd y nghia thdng ke ddi voi hai bien ndy.
2. Nhan to tigid hoi dodi
Phdn Idn cdc nghien ciiu cho rdng tdc dpng ngdn hgn cua thdm hyt ngan sach tien ti gia hoi dodi dd dan den sy khdng chde chan ve bdn chat ciia mdi quan hp giiia hai biln.
Knigman (1995) vd Sachs (1985) l^p ludn rdng tham hyt ngan sach thap ban ldm gidm gid trj ciia ddng USD. Cd rat nhilu tai lipi
I
80 NGHIEN COU CH&U &U - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°7 (166).2014
gdp phdn giir quan diem ndy, chit yeu la ttong trudng hpp cua Hoa Ky (Mundell, 1963; Flemmg, 1963; Dombusch 1976). Cdc nhd kinh tl khac, bao gdm Evans (1986) l^p lugn ring miic tham hyt thdp hon cd the thyc sy danh gia cao ddng USD ttong ngdn hgn.
Tac gia Beck (1993) kiem ti^ y nghia cua tham hut ngan sdch va thay ddi chi tieu chinh phu den ti gia hdi dodi cita 5 qudc gia cdng nghiep phdt trien 6 chdu Au nhu Due, Nhgt Ban, Anh, va cac nuoc chau My nhu Canada va My. Kit qua cho thdy cd tdn tai m$t mdi quan hp tieu cue giiia tham hut ngan sdch vd ti gid h6i dodi tiong tat ca cdc trudng hpp, ngogi trii Nhgt Bdn.
3. Nhan ti lgm phdt
Bai bao cua Evans (1987) de xuat rdng tham hyt ngan sdch cao khdng nhat thiet phdi dan den mpt ddng tien mgnh. Ong lap luan rang, neu thdm hyt ngdn sdch dnh hudng din tdng cdu, nd cd the dan den miic gia cao hon vd Ian lupt dan den ddng ndi te mat gia tri ciiand.
Da cd nhihig nghien ciru khdc ve tac dpng cita tham hyt ngan sach tten cdc biln kinh te vT md khac nhu lam phdt va cung tien. Nghien euu McMillin (1986) tim thdy bang chirng cho thay thdm hyt ngan sdch gay ra lgm phat. Cdc nghien ciiu khac bac bd kit qud nay va cho rang thdm hyt ngan sach khdng ddng gdp dang ke vdo lgm phat cao hon (Karras, 1994). Tac gid Su Dinh Thdnh (2012) da nghien ciiu tham hut ngan sach vd
Iam p h ^ kit qua Id tham hyt ngan sdch vd lgm phat khdng cd quan hd trong d^ hgn nhung lai cd quan h^ ttong ngdn han.
4. Nhan ti thui
Tdng ngudn thu tir thue sg giiip ldm giam tham hut ngan sach la ket qu^ ngjiien ciiu ciia Wosowei Elizabeth (2013). Thul tang se ldm ngudn thu ngan sdch tdng, bu ddp tham hut cho qudc gia.
5. Nhan to chi tieu chinh phu Giam chi tieu chinh phu Id can thilt dl giam tham hut ngan sach la ket lugn ciia Nimal Sandratne ttdn tap chf Sunday tunes (2013). Ciing vdi quan diem cua dng vd dya tidn nghien ciiu dinh lupng, theo Wosowei Elizabeth (2013) thdm hut ngdn sdch cd quan he voi chi tieu chinh phu theo chidu duong tiic Id chi tieu chinh phit tang dan din tham hut tang.
2. Mo hinh nghien cuu
Nghidn ciiu nay sir dung md hinh VAR - su md rdng md huih ty hdi quy tiong do c6 nhilu biln duac nghien ciiu. Md hinh VAR Id m^t he phuang trinh ddng thai. Chdng han, tiong hd phuang trinh dd cd m^t phuang trinh ma Yt Id biln phy thu0c vd Xt 14 bien ddc lap; cdn phuang trinh kia cd Xt 14 bien phy thupc vd Yt lai Id bien ddc lap.
D I giiip tim hiiu mdi quan he giiia thdm hyt ngan sach va cac bien vT md tiong nln kinh tl nhu lgm phdt, ti gia'hdi doai, Idi sudt, chi tieu chinh phii va thul, ta cd the lap m6 hinh chinh thiic nhu sau:
fpkdtt iieh mA quart he... 81
(FD/Y\ =^^^aii}{FDIY)^ "*"X"=i^'^'^' •^' (^>
Trong dd:
FD/Y la ti le tiiam hut tai khda so voi GDP
X Id biln dgi dien cho cac biln vT md ttong bai: lgm phat, ti gid hdi dodi, lai suat, chi tieu chinh phu vd thul
-^ todn tu dich chuyen liii/tte d mdi thdi dogn i Gia thuyet md hinh nghien ciiu:
Dya vdo phucmg trinh 1, cac gid thuyet ciia md hinh Ho duoc mieu ta nhu sau:
Pi=...=Pt=0
Vai gid thuylt Ho, tham hyt ngdn saeh khdng cd mdi quan he ndo voi cac bien vT mo ttong phuang trinh (1)
Gia thuylt H1: tham hut ngan sdch cd quan he voi cac bien sd vT md.
3. Dii- li^u va ket qua kiem dinh md hinh nghien cihi
3A. Ditli^u nghien cuu
Nghien ciiu ndy bao qudt tir ndm 1990 den ndm 2012. Nhdm nghien cuu thu thap dii lieu giai dogn 1990-2012 tir ngudn ADB
ttong an phdm "Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2013". Dua vdo bang phu luc thdng ke cho timg qude gia, tde gia thu thap cdc dii lieu ve Viet Nam gdm tham hyt ngdn sdch (tinh theo % GDP), ti gia hdi dodi (VND/USD), lgm phdt (% GDP), chi tidu chinh phu, thue vd lai sudt (% nam).
Bdng 1. Mo ta du* lifu thong ke cdc bien trong md hinh
Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std. Dev.
Sltewness Kurtosis larque-Bera Probability Sum Sum Sq. Dev.
Observations FD -0.047353 -0.041390 0.041010 -0.127330 0.047118 -0.039433 2.121880 0.744927 0.689035 -1.089127 0.048842
23 E 14216.42 14725.20 20828.00 6482.000 3484.048 -0.052396 2.723929 0.083564 0.959079 326977.7 2.67E+08 23
EXPGDP 0.229618 0.240400 0.280811 0.130000 0.038905 -0.961926 3.233007 3.599020 0.165380 5.281223 0.033298
23 INF 13.71539 8.110000 81.81700 -1.768000 17.89511 2.666386 10.31045 78.46939 0.000000 315.4540 7045.172
23 R 7.463478 8.400000 13.46000 0.120000 4.397284 -0.673596 2.261202 2.262386 0.322648 171.6600 425.3943 23
TAX__GDP 0.186857 0.192294 0.224635 0.110000 0.032239 -1.121153 3.625290 5.193133 0.074529 4.297705 0.022866 23
82 NGHIEN COU C H A U AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°7 (U6).2014
3.2. Kit qud kiim d^nh md hinh nghiSn ciru
3.2.1. Kiim dinh nghiem dan vi (Unit root test)
Trudc khi thuc hien kiem dinh md hinh VAR, bdng viec sir dyng dii lieu chudi thai gian, ydu cdu phai tiln hanh kilm dinh nghiem don vi hodc kiem dinh tinh dimg (Stationary test) ciia chudi thdi gian bdi vi udc luang VAR chi thich hop ttong trudng hpp d dd tdt ca cac bidn ttong md hinh la cd tinh diing. Kiem dinh Augmented Dickey - Fuller (ADF) dupe tiidn khai de kiem dinh chuoi dimg cho tdt ca cac bien vol Bdng 2. Ket qua kiem dinh
gia thuyet sau:
Ho: p = 0, kit luan: cd nghiem don vi hoac ehudi khdng dimg;
Hj: p < 0, kit luan chuSi khong co nghiem dan vi hoac chudi dimg.
Tieu chi quan ttpng dd la neu thing ke tstat (duac tinh toan ttong mo hinh) dli vdi p cd gia tri am Idn hon 5% gia tri tra bang DF tiong kilm dinh Augmented Dickey - Fuller thi gia thuylt Ho hi bdc bd hoac bidn c6 tinh diing hodc khdng cd nghipm dan vj. Ngupc lai, thi bien cd nghipm don vj. Tir md Mnh nghien ciiu, ket qua kiem dinh nghipm don vi cho cac bien nhu sau:
dtfn vi doi vol c^c biln g6c
Bien FD
E R EXP
Tax INF
t-stat doi vol p -2.589 -0. 3507
-2.062 -1.708 -2.730 -4.106
5% gia tri tra bang -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3
Ket luan Co nghiem don v Co nghiem dem v Co nghiem don v Co nghiem don v Co nghiem don v Khong CO nghiem dofn vj
Ket qua Bang 2 cho thay INF khong co nghiem don vi trong khi do FD, E, R, EXP, Tax lai co nghiem don vi. Vi the can thiet phai chuySn sang nghien cihi chuoi sai phan bSng each chuyin cac biSn nay thanh sai phan phin tram. Cu thS nhu sau:
DFD = dlog(FD) DE = dlog(E) DR = dlog (R) DEXP = dlog (EXP) DTax = dlog (Tax)
fpitaji Udi mii HMUUI ki,.. 83
B&ng 3. Ket qua Idem dinh dorn vi doi vcH sai phan cac bien Bien
DFD DE DR DE DY
T-stat doi vol p -4.629 -4.444 -5.765 -5.39 -3.769
5% gia tri tra bang -3 -3 -3 -3 -3
Ket luan Khong CO nghi$m don vi Khong CO nghiem don vi Khong CO nghiem don vi Khong CO nghiem dan vi Kh6ng CO nghiem don vi
Bang 3 cho thdy kidm djnh nghipm don vj cho moi bien sau khi thyc hien sai phan. Kit qud la khdng cd bidn ndo cd nghiem dan vi.
Nghia Id, tdt cd cac biln diu Id chudi dimg.
3.2.2. Kit qud uac lugng md hinh VAR Tii cdc bien trong md hinh vd chilu ddi dp tre Id 1, chiing tdi udc lupng md hinh VAR vd ket qud udc lupng cho thay ti gia hdi dodi, lai suat, lam phdt cd quan he ven thdm hyt ngdn sdch, chi tieu chinh phu vd cd quan he thuan chieu, vd thul khdng cd quan hp vdi thdm hyt
ngan sach d Viet Nam. Kit qua lai suit cd tdc ddng ddn thdm hyt ngan sach gidng voi nghien curu cua Mak (1994) d nude Diic. Ti gia hdi dodi cd tdc ddng den thdm hut ngdn sdch gidng voi bdi bdo cua tac gid Beck (1993) nghien ciiu d nuoc Anh vd nuoc Diic.
3.2.3. Kit qud kiim dinh nhdn qud Granger
De biet dupe chieu hudng tac ddng giiia cdc bien tiong md hinh, chiing tdi sii dung kiem dinh nhan qud Granger.
Bdng 5: Ket qua kiem dinh nhan qua Granger Bien phu thupc
FD
Bien dpc lap E R EXP
Tax INF
Nhan qua Granger
Khdng Khdng Khdng Cd Khdng Kit qud nghien ciiu cho thay ngudn thu
thue cd dnh hudng tryc tilp den sy thay ddi thdm hyt tdi khda trong ngdn ban va dai hgn if Vi§t Nam giai dogn 1990-2012. Kit qud oghi€n ciiu dS cho thay, mudn khdc phyc thdm hyt tdi khda can phdi ciing co nguon thu ngdn sdch du trong ngdn hgn vd ddi hgn.
Hon nua, ciing cd the ket lugn rdng sy thay ddi ti gia hdi dodi, lgm phdt, lai suit, chi tieu chmh phii khdng dnh hudng din thdm hyt tai khda d Vipt Nam giai dogn nghien cihi ndy.
Ket qua nay phu hpp vdi nghien ciiu ciia Kristen vd Felix (2004), nghien ciiu 6 ba nude chdu Au Id Phap, Diic vd Italy
84 NGHIEN COU C h i u AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°7 (166).2014 Hinh 1: Phan irng ciia c^c biln s6 d6i voi cac cu soc
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Theo ket qud kiem djnh tten, thii ty tiong phdn ra Choleski dupe xdc dinh la FD, E, R, INF, Tax, EXP vd Hinh I till hien cdc ham phan iing theo thii ty nay ttong thdi gian nghien ciiu 10 nam.
4. Ket luan va ham y chinh sach Tir ket qua nghien ciiu, chiing tdi dua ra mpt vdi khuyen nghi nhdm cdi thien dilu hdnh chinh sach vT md eua Viet Nam. Kit qua nay cd y nghia khi ddng gdp vao vide tim ra giai phdp trong thue tl md hien nay chinh phii Viet Nam rat quan tam, dd la ldm
the nao de khac phyc su tham hyt dai ddng ciia tai khodn ngan sach nha nude. Nhu vgy, dya vao ket qua kiem dinh ed thi gpi y dieu chinh ve lai sudt, ti gia hdi dodi, lam phat vi chi tieu cCia chinh phii nhdm dan din gidm tham hut ngdn sdch d Viet Nam.
(I) Kit qud nghien eiiu cho thiy chi tieu chinh phu tac dpng din thdm hyt ngdn sdch d Viet Nam. Khuyen nghi la cdt gidffl chi tieu ciia Chinh phu bao gdm cdc khodn chi cho hogt dpng cua Chinh phii vd cdc hoat ddng ddu tu ciia Chinh phu va kilm sodt cW
t])ltdn iieh m ^ qiMart he... 85
che cdc hogt dpng ddu tu ciia cdc cdng ty thudc sd hihi nha nuoc. Gidm chi tieu cdng vd thu hep vai tid cua nhd nuoc ttong nln kuih tl can ddnh gid todn dipn vl cac khodn chi tieu cdng theo cdc linh vye khdc nhau.
Cdt gidm chi tidu can dua tten viec ddnh gid sdng loc nhiing chuong trinh chi tieu kem hi?u qua, cd thii tu uu tidn thdp bode nhung ITnh vye md khu vye tu nhdn cd the ldm tdt.
(2) Kit qua kilm dinh cho thdy ti gid hii doai, lai suat va Iam phdt ciing cd quan h? vdi thdm hyt ngdn sdch. Vi vay, chinh sdch ti gid hdi doai d Vidt Nam cdn dupe dilu chinh linh hogt, khdng nen duy tri mdt miic ti gid cd dinh tiong thdi gian ddi, hodc neu Ngan hang Nhd nude didu chinh thi cung nln dilu chinh ti gia hdi doai. Ngdn hang Nhd nude cung cdn dieu chinh chinh sdch ldi suat d mirc hpp ly vdi bien dp dao dpng hpp ly vd hudng den viec dieu chinh ti Ip lgm phdt thich hpp de gidm tham hut ngan sach ttong thdi gian den.
(3) Trong phgm vi dii li?u nghien ciiu cd dupe, kit qud kiem dinh cho thay quan h^ nhan qua giiia bidn lgm phdt, ti gid hii dodi vd lai suat vdi tham hyt ngdn sach khdng cd -^ nghia thdng kd. Dilu ndy gpi len hdm y, neu nhu Chinh phii chi dya vdo cac ylu tl lgm phdt, ldi suat vd ti gid hdi dodi dl ' dilu chinh vi myc tieu cdi thipn thdm hyt ngfin sdch thi c6 16 dd chua phdi Id giai phap '• tit. Trdn tit cd, chinh sdch tdi khda can phai
cd sy phdi hop chinh vdi chinh sdch tien te, ddng thdi cdn thdy rd hieu iing tdc ddng ciia viec kiem sodt can cdn vang lai (tham hyt tdi khodn vang lai) thi moi dgt dupe hieu qua mong dpi ttong viec gidm thdm hut ngan sach.
TAI LI$U THAM KHAO 1. Akbostanci, Elif and Tunp, Giii (2002) —Turkish Twin Deficits: an Error Correction Model of Trade Balance.
Economic Research Center Working Paper, Middle East Technical University, No.
01/06, May.
2. Barro, R.J.(1987). "Government spending, interest rates, prices, and budget deficits in the United Kingdom, 1701-1918".
Joumal of Monetary Economics, 20(3), pp.221-4.
3. Beck, S.(1993). "The Effect of Budget Deficits on Exchange Rates: Evidence From Five Countries". Proceedings of the Southem Finance Association meeting, 17- 20, New Orleans, US.
4. Bemheim, B.D.(1989). "A neoclassical perspective on budget deficits "
The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(2), pp.55-72.
5. Cebula, R.J. and Koch, J.V.(1989).
"An empirical note on deficits, interest rates.
and international capital flows" The
86 NGHIEN CCfU CH&U AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°7 (1661.2014
Quarterly Review of Economics and Business, 29(1), pp.119-26.
6. Evans, P.(1985). "Do large deficits produce high interest rates?". American Economic Review, Vol. 75 No. 1, pp.68-87
7. Evans, P.(1986). "Is the dollar high because of large budget deficits? " Journal of Monetary Economics, 18(3), pp.227-29.
8. Evans, P.(1987). "Do budget deficits raise nominal interest rates? Evidence from six countries". Journal of Monetary Economics, 20(3), pp.281-300.
9. Fleming, M.(1963). "Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rales", IMF Staff Papers, 9, pp.369-79.
10. Hoelscher, G.(1986). "New evidence on deficits and interest rates". Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 18(1), pp.1-17.
11. Karras, G.(1994). "Macroeconomic effects of budget deficits: further international evidence". Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 13 No. 2,pp.l90-210.
12. Krugman, P.(1995). "Dutch Tulips and Emerging Markets" Foreign Affairs, July/August, 74(4), pp.28-44.
13. Kulkami, Kishore and Erickson, Erick (2001). "Twin Deficit Revisited:
Evidence from India, Pakistan and Mexico", The Journal of Applied Business Research, Vol. 17, No. 2, pp. 97-103.
14. Kristen va Felix (2004),
"Expected budget deficits and interest rate swap spreads - Evidence from France, Germany and Italy", Discussion Paper, No 04/2004.
15. Sachs, J.(1985). "External debt and macroeconomic performance in Latin America and East Asia", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 2.
16. Svt Dinh Thanh (2012). "Thdm hut ngdn sdch vd lgm phdt - Minh chung thuc nghiem a Viet Nam^. Tap chi Phat trien kinh te s6 259, th&ig 5,2012.
17. Ratha Artatrana (2010). Twin Deficits or Distant Cousins? Evidence from India. Department of Economics Working Papers, Cloud State University, No. 10-05.
18. Wosowei Elizabeth (2013). "Ficd deficits and macroeconomic aggregates in Nigeria", Kuwait Chapter of Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review Vol. 2,No.9; May, 2013.
