P H A T T R I E N K I N H TE
So 267, Thang Mot nSm 2013
-m
TAM QUAN TRONG CUA KIEM SOAT V O N O VIET N A M
vu BANG T A M * & ERIC IKSOON IM"*
Bdi viet ndy gi&i thipu mpt cdu trdc U thuyit dffn gidn vi hgn chi ddu tu ngdn hgn nhu co phiiu, trdi phieu, vd cdc logi ddu tu gidn tiip khdc, ddng thoi khuyen khich ddu tu trg-c tiep nu&c ngodi (FDI) Id mpt ddu tu ddi hgn. Kit qud li thuyit cho thdy mpt nu&c dang phdt triin nhu VN cdn duy tri mpt muc dp kiem sodt vdn nhdt dinh ddi v&i ddu tu ngdn hgn. Bdi viet cung cung cap nghien cuu thuc nghiem cho nhom ndm nu&c - hodc dang trong qud trinh thuffng lupng hopic dang cd y dinh tr& thdnh "Ddi tdc kinh te xuyen Thdi Binh Duffng" (Trans-Pacific Economic Partnership), dgc bipt nhdn mgnh tru&ng hpp cda VN. Kit qud kiem dinh phdt hipn rdng FDI co tdc dung tich cut: len sdn luffng binh qudn ddu ngu&i cho khdi nam nu&c ke tren vd cho tirng nen kinh te. Ngucrc lgi, ddu tu ngdn hgn gdy tdc dung tiiu cue lin sdn luffng binh qudn dau ngu&i trong bdn nin kinh te ngoai trir Singapore.
Tu khod: Kiem sodt von, ddu tu ngdn hgn. ddu tu ddi hgn, FDI.
1. Gidi thieu
Trong nam 2008-2012, VN vd Malaysia dang trong qua triiih thucmg lugng di tham gia nhdm
"D6i tdc kinh te xuyen Thai Binh Duong" (TPP) cimg chin nude khac, gdm: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore va My. Ngodi ra, Philippines ciing dang bdy td mong mudn tham gia vd se trd thanh nude thir nam cua ASEAN trong TPP nSu dugc chdp thudn.
Trong nhimg ngdy 16/04/2012 den 20/04/2012, dgt thuong lugng d Ha Ngi ve van de ddu tu ciing viec ban che kiem soat vdn da gay nen nhieu quan ngai ve viec cdc nude phdt trien trong TPP cd the ddi hdi mgt nude dang phat trien nhu VN phdi hodn todn tir bd ki£m sodt von. Tren 100 nha kinh te todn cau da ky vdo mdt biic tiiu di nghi cdc thdnh vien cua TPP tranh bdn tdi kiSm sodt vdn. Nhin chung, lgi ich eua vipc tir bd kigm sodt vdn khdng hS ro rang. Nhieu tranh ludn cang thang vi dS tai ndy da xudt hipn tr6n edc tap chi khoa hoc.
Edison & cpng su (2004) phdn tich 12 bai bao, trong dd cd ddn 10 bai da khdng tim dugc bat ky mdt chiing ed nao cho thay tu bd kiem sodt vdn se thiic ddy phat triSn kinh ti. Klein (2005) tim ra chi 25% cdc nude vdi he Ihong tdi chinh viing manh tren thi gidi gat hdi dugc tdc dyng tich cyc ciia tu do hod
v6n. Hsieh & cdng su (2008) viit mpt bdi bdo ve thdi quen bdy dan trong cgng ddng con ngudi va tim ra ket qua thyc nghiem chi ro sy nguy hiem ciia-thdi quen nay trong tin trudng tdi chinh a cac nude chdu A va chau My La tinh. Vu (2006) phan tich chinh sach kiim soat vdn d Malaysia nhung nam 1997- 1998 va rut ra bai bgc cho VN, theo dd VN khdng nen ndi long Idem sodt vdn trong nhung nam sap tdi.
Cd hai bai bdo tap trung phdn tich nguyen nhdn ciia cugc khimg hoang tai chinh d chdu A nhung nam 1997-1998 vd ngam dinh cho VN. Moreno &
cgng sy (1999, trang 41), vdi Turley (1999, trang 287) quy kfit nguyen nhdn eua cugc khimg hodng la do "tham nhiing, chii nghia tu bdn dya tren thdn quen, va he thdng tai chinh yeu kem". Nhu vdy phdi chdng VN khdng cd tham nhiing, khdng mdc ngodc, vd cd mdt he thdng tdi chinh tit vung vdng?
Moreno & cpng su, vdi Turley khdng dinh khdng phdi nhu vay nhung chi dy dodn VN cd thS se bi keo vao cupc khung hodng md khong v^ch ra nguyen nhdn ndo khdc. Vdy tai sao VN tren thyc te da khdng phdi nem trdi sy kien day dau thuong ciia nhiing nam 1997-1998 nhu cdc nude lang gieng? Cdu trd Idi dugc trinh bdy trong phdn tich cua Krugman (1999) - ngudi chi ra tdm quan trgng cua kiSm sodt vdn trong viec bdo ve mdt nude dang phdt hien trdnh khoi khiing hoang tdi chinh bat chap trinh dp
*PGS.TS., **GS.TS., Tntimg Bai hgc Hawaii-Hlilo (M^) Email: [email protected], [email protected]
NGHIEN CCrU& TRAO Bdi 3 7
P H A T T R I E N K I N H T E
qudn li nha nude edn thap k6m vd hp thong tdi chinh non yeu. Phan tich cua Krugman ngy ^ cd sy ket hgp ciia ba yeu to - trinh dg qudn li nhd nude thdp kiSm, he thdng lai chinh non yeu, vd lir bd hodn loan kiem sodt von - da dan den cugc khiing hodng 1997-1998.
Mdt khdc, VN da vd dang thu hilt mpt khoi lugng FDI kha to Idn, dugc coi Id dau tu ddi han nh^t. Su dyng so lipu ve FDI tir Quy Tien tc Quoc te (IMF) cho VN vd bon nude chiu dnh hudng ciia cupc khung hodng 1997-1998 (Thdi Lan, Malaysia, Indonesia va Hdn Quoc), tdc gid da tinh todn vd so sdnh dp tang trudng ciia FDI gjtra VN vd cdc nude ndy. Ket qua cho thay toe do tang trudng ciia FDI vdo VN Idn ban trong nhirng nam 1997-1998. Dieu nay ngu y mdt nude dang phdt trien khdng cdn phdi ty do hod hodn todn vdn dau lu mdi thu hut dupe FDI. Ngoc va Ramstctter (2004) cung tim ra rdng FDI tir cdc cdng ty nude ngodi gdp phan ldm tang trudng tdng sdn lugng qudc gia (GDP) d VN trong giai doan 1990-2003. Vi vdy, mpt nude dang phdt IriSn nhu VN cd the khdng edn hj bd kiem sodt vdn mdi dat dugc tang trudng kinh te.
Trong nhung nam 2007-2008, mpt khoi lugng Idn dau tu ngdn ban da trdn vdo VN. Nhieu nha kinh te nude ngodi cho rang ddy Id mgt trong nhiing Ii do VN chiu dnh hudng nang ne ciia cupc khiing hoang tai chinh todn cdu mdi trong nhung nam 2007-2008. Hon niia, tinh trang dd la hod d VN cung rdt nghiem trgng. Hien tugng ndy Idm y6u ddng tien VN vd ldm cho khung hodng tdi chinh cdng dl xdy ra. Mdi ddy, Jearme & cgng sy (2012) bao cao tdm tat tinh trang ngay cang tdi tp eiia thi trudng tdi chinh qudc te vd keu gpi tang cudng kiem sodt vdn cho hdu bet cdc nude tren the gidi, ddc biet cho cac nude dang phdt trien. Mpt cau hdi dugc dat ra: Vdy khung li thuyet ndo cd the phdn tich tinh frang nay? Trong phdn tiep theo, tac gia cd gdng tim mpt gidi phdp cho cau hdi ndy.
2. Mdt bo khung li thuyet ddn gian Cdu true li thuyet frong bai dya tren md hinh ngo^ii thuong Heckscher-Ohlin (HO) vd dugc phat trien them cho phii hgp vdi su thay ddi theo thdi gian trong mgt qud trinh nang dgng. Md hinh ndy dat gid thiet cd hai nude sdn xudt hai loai hang hod X va Y. Nude F (Foreign) la mgt ngoai qudc dang ddu tu vdo nude chu nha H (Host). Moi nude cd the
Idn hay nhd. Nude dau tu F cd nen kinh t^ d5 phii trien. Ngugc l^i, nude chu nhd H cd nen Idnhil dang phdt trien vd chua Io?i bd ki6m sodt von. Gjj thiet ban dau Id nude H cd trinh dp qudn li nhdmA va h? thong tdi chinh d miic trung binh. Giathilfiia}
s5 dugc lo^i bd trong phan sau, Dudng khd nSngrin xuat (Production Possibility Curves) ban dau tfuflc bieu thi bdi F„ and Ho cho nude F vd nuoc H lb thii ly ke tren. Gia cd hiong irng ban ddu dirpc bidi thi bdi PF„ vd PHO t^i diem can bdng CR, va 0^ du hai nude F vd H. Dudng bdng quan cho hai nuoc dugc bieu thj bdi Up,, vd UHO (Hinh 1).
Hinh 1 . Tr^ng thai can bang ban tfau cho moi nude Ghi chu: PFO vd PHO bi4u thj gid cd tuang ung twn aSu giOa hai nude F vd H. Diem cSn bdng ban ddu ducn:"
thj tai CFO vd CHO. Tgi nhOng diSm ndy, ducmg bdng quan UFO vd UHO ti§m cdn vdi dudng l<hd ndng sdn xudt Fo and Ho cua moi nude.
Cdc gid thiit tan c6 diln cho mo hinh dupe gjii nguyen tru mpt gid thiSt: dudng bdng quan vadiitrag khd nang sdn xuat ciia moi nude cd the thay doi tb»
thdi gian tuy theo muc do di6u chinh trong qua trinti giao luu giiia hai nude. Gia thidt mdi nay tao cosa cho viec phan tich nang dgng mpt khi nhfli^ ri"
ddu tu tu ngo^i qudc F tham nhap nude chd r\W- Mpt di6m can chu y la md hinh Mundell-Flem"^
cho kinh te md khong the sir dyng cho trudng hPP nay vi tinh chdt tinh tai cua mo hinh.
2.1. Tru&ng hgp thit nhdt: Nu&c H tk^^
kiem sodt von
3 8
NGHlENCCrU&TRAOQdlDat gid thidt nude H quyet dinh thu hixt mpt lugng Idn FDI vd mgt lugng rdt nhd dau tu ngdn h^m theo dung chinh sdch kifim sodt von. Vi nude F chi ddu hr neu cd Igi vd nude H thu hiit dugc ngo^i t$ tir FDI phuc vy cho dau tu trong nude, dudng san xuat cua cd hai nude tinh ti^n vd GDP ciia moi nude ciing tang trudng (hinh 2).
Nhiing nhd dau tu ddi hgn tii ngo?i quoc F thdm nhdp vdo nude H se phdi dieu chinh theo van hod vd luat phdp ciia nude chii nha neu hg muon thdnh cong. Vi hau hSt phai theo duoi dau tu ddi hgn, dudng bdng quan eiia nude F se phdi thay ddi thanh dudng UFI, gap dudng UFO tai di^m A. Xet vi mgt hieu dyng cho nude F, se khdng cd sy khdc bipt giua di6m CFI vd di6m A, vd diem A cung chi tdt bdng diem Cpo. Tuy nhien, nude F van cd Igi tit su tang trudng tdng sdn lugng qudc gia (GDP) vd se tiep tuc ddu tu ddi ban vao nude H. Vd ngugc lai, nude H dugc lgi hai mat tai di6m CHI; Tang hudng GDP vd
muc hipu dung cao hon tren dudng UHI song song vdi dudng UHO (Hinh 2).
2.2. Tru&ng hpp thit hai: Nu&c H tir bd todn bp kiem sodt vdn - Sg- diiu chinh khdng dnh hu&ng t&i qud trinh sdn xudt
Tlnh binh se thay doi ngugc lgi cho miic hieu dyng neu nude H logi bd todn bp kiem sodt vdn.
Trong trudng hgp ndy, mpt so lugng Idn cdc nhd ddu tu nude ngodi se vdo nude H, bao gom cd ddi hgn va ngan hgn, vd se thyc thi dnh hudng mgnh me len nude H. Mgt nude md hodn todn se phdi dieu chinh van hod va lugt phdp cho thich hgp vdi nude ngodi.
YJX qud dudng bang quan ciia nude H se phdi thay ddi vd gap dudng cu tgi diim B. Neu sy di6u chinh khdng dnh hudng qud trinh sdn xudt, dudng sdn xudt cua hai nude van tirdi tiin vd GDP ciia ca hai nude deu tang trudng (Hinh 3). Tuy nhien, miic hipu dyng ciia nude H se khdng thay doi vi diim CHI chi tdt
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Hinh 2. NUdc H thy'c thi kiem scat von
GhJ chU: Trgng thai can bang mdi cho nuo^ F duvc bilu thj tai diim Cpi. Vdi itilm soat v6n, dudng bang quan cOa nude F' thay ddi thdnh UFI va gap dudng bdng quan cD tai diem A. Nhu vgy, mi>c hieu dyng cOa nirdc F khdng thay doi. Oudng bdng quan cda nud-c H tjnh li4n Idi UHI song song vdi dudng cO va mi>c hipu dyng cOa nude H cao hem miic cQ.
NGHlSNCliUaTRAOQdl j i O
PWAT TRIEN KINH TE
bSng diem B, va dijm B cung chi lot bjng diem Cii„.
Trong tniong h w nay, nir6c F dirg-c hutms Ig-i gap doi tji diSm Cp,: Tang truirng GDP v4 miic hieu dung cao lion tren du6ng bang quan song song v*l ducmg cu.
Ket qua nay cliimg minh lujn cu ciia Stiglitz's (2002): Nhung nuAc giiu c6 truAc Icia cDng da thirc thi kiSm soil von trong giai doiin dang ph4t trien.
Nay hg da Wn manh du ti ch6ng chpi vAi mpi nii ro va hp doi h6i cSc nu6c IchSc tir b6 Idem soat von de lam lgi cho hp chii lihong phai lam Ipi eho c4c nuAc dang phat trien.
2.3. Truing hflp thir ha: Nir&c H tit ho toan hf kiim soat vin - Sir diiu chinli cdn dnh hu&ng tiM qud trinh sdn xuat
Tir phta nay tro di, bii bao luon gia thifit nuAc H khong dupe phep thirc thi kiim soat von. Neu vipc di6u chinh t6n kem nhi6u ca ve mat tai ehlnh lan co gang d^ tim kiem thong tin ve luat phap nude ngoai.
duimg san xuat cua nu6c H c6 the khong tjnh Iii dupe. Nhu vjy, nu6c H khong dupe Ipi gi trong«(t|
lo?i b6 kiem soSt von trong khi nu6c F Ipi gipfi (Hinh 4). Trong truimg hpp nJy, tang tnrmg GDP v4 ph6c Ipi xa hpi cua nu6c H khong c6 thaydSiiii c6 ^ nghta d4ng ke trong khi c4 hai thay dSi dn nu6c F deu theo chieu hudng tich circ. Dieu my ciing triing hpp vdi ket qua thvc nghiem tir nhiiij nghien ciiu hien c6.
2.4. Tru&ng hfp ""<• '"•' Trinh df qudn liiiif vd hf thong tdi chinh non yiu
Neu nuAc H c6 trinh dp qu4n li nha nufc coi thap, tinh tr^ng vT mo khong on dinh va te nan than nhQng se liim giam hi^u qua ciia dau tu nucrc ngoai nhieu djn muc khong lh6 bu l?i chi phi eho vi?c4ii«
chinh. Tdc dpng ciia vi^c tir bo kiem soat vfinsetro thanh tieu cvrc. Tinh trang nay ciing phu hpp voi ki qua thg-c nghipm tir nhung nghi€n cira hien c6. Neu nuoc H eon CO mpt h? thong tai chinh non yJl
Hinh 3. NUdc H tCr bo hoan toan kiem sodt von
Ghi chii; Trang thii c5n bing mb-i cho mdc H dupe bieu thj t^i di4m C H I . V * i c3 hai logi dSu t u dai hgn v4 ng*
han, duo-ng bSng quan cua nud-c H thay d6i thSnh Um v& cat du6ng cQ tgi dl6m B. Mi>c hi#u dgng cOa niwct khfing thay doi. Budng b4ng quan cOa nu6c F tjnh tien song song v6l du^rng cQ vS mire hi$u dyng cua nu6c F ca hon rnljc cQ.
A A NGHI£NCOU& TRAO odl
P H A T T R I E N K I N H TE
Hinh 4. Sif dieu chinh gay anh hudng tdi qua trinh san xuat
Ghi chu: Neu vi$c ^ e u chinh tdn k6m qua nhteu, dudng san xuat cCia nude H c6 the khong tjnh tien du^c vi phai chi phi qua nhieu lien cua va co gang vao viec tim kiim thong tin tu ngudi nude ngoai. Trong trudng hp'p nay, nuo-c H khdng dugc lgi gi tCr lo^i bo Iciem soat von.
nhiing con sdt dau ca cua cac nha dau tu ngan ban chdng lai ddng bac noi dia cd the khien cho dudng bang quan eiia nude H bien dang do su tiem an ciia thdng tin sai lech (Hinh 5).
Trong trudng hop nay, se cd hien tugng that bai thi trudng do mat can ddi thdng tin, va trang thai can bang cho san xuat ciia nude H dugc xac dinh tai diem QHO, nhung trang thai can bang cho tieu diing lai dich chuydn tdi diem CHI- Neu nude H ciing that bai trong viec bao ve minh chdng l?i nhiing can sdt dau ca, thi trudng dau tu se hoan toan sup do, dan d^n khiing hoang tai chinh, hoac khiing hoang ti6n te, hoac ca hai. Nhu vay, nude H se phai chiu mat mat rk Idn. Tinh trang nay cung phii hgp vdi nhung md hinh li thuyit va thuc nghiem hien thdi.
3. Bang chu'ng thu'c nghiem
Tac gia tiin hanh phan tich sd li?u de kiim dinh tac ddng khac nhau giua diu lu dai ban (FDI) va diu tu ng3n han (cd phi8u, trai phieu, hoac cac loai dau tu gian tigp khac) len phat hidn kinh ta sii dung phuong trinh udc luofng:
Hinh 5. That b^i thj tru'dng do mat can doi thong tin
Ghi chu: vdi Irinh dp quan Ir nha nude con Hiap va h?
thong tai chinh yeu Item, dudng bang quan cua nude H CO the bj bien dgng nhu" UHI, do mdt can doi thong tin.
Diem can bang san xuat cua nude IH dugc bieu thi a diem QHO, tgi do dudng san xuat ti^m cgn vdi tuyen gia ca PHO, nhung dudng lai liem cgn vdi PHO tai diem Cm.
Do v|y, trgng thai can bang b| pha va va nude IH co ^ e chju nhieu mat mat. Dieu nay cung co Ihe xay ra n i u dudng san xuat bj bien dgng.
y„=h+ Yi^^l, + SHORT,, + X?i,C^,, + / ; + ; , + ??,, Trong do, Y bieu thi GDP binh quan dau ngudi, FDI va SHORT bieu thi miic dau tu true tiep nude ngoai va muc dau tu ngan han binh quan dau ngudi, theo thu tu ke tren. Chi so i va t bieu thi cho tiing nude va tung thdi gian, kem vdi cac sd du tuang ling. Vector ' C bao gdm cac bien diSu khien nhu vdn vat chat va vdn nhan lyc trong nude, xuat khau, lai suat thuc tS v.v..
Tac gia thu thap sd lieu eho nam nude ASEAN, bao gdm bdn nude dang thuong luong gia nhap TPP - Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, va VN - cdng them Philippines la nude dang cd y dinh tham gia. So lieu cho mgt sd bien ciia VN chi cd cho giai doan 1996- 2011 nen chiing toi chi udc lugng cho giai doan nay.
Sd lieu dugc thu thap tu cac trang mang ciia Ngan hang Phal trien chau A (ADB), Van phdng nghien cu thudc Bd Ndng nghiep My (USDA), NgSn hang
KIGHI^N CD'U & TRAO Ddi ^ 1
^r^Sk^ PHAT TRIEN KINH TE
Th6 gidi (WB), vjl Quy Tien te Quoc le (IMF), bao gdm: FDI, dau tu ngSn han, GDP theo gi^ so s^nh 2005, dan so, xuat khau, ti gia hoi do^i thyc, lai suat thuc, tdng von dau tu dai dien cho von v^l chat vi miic xoa nan mii chu dpi di?n cho von nhan lyc.
Kiem djnh ban dau khong tiel lg khi nang tdc dgng hai chieu hoac hi?n tugng ngi sinh, do v$y khdng c3n thiet phii sir dyng bi?n phdp tam doan toi thilu hoac nhj do^n toi thieu (three stage least squares/two stage least squares). Kiem djnh VIF khong tim ra hi?n tugng da cgng tuyen va kiem djnh Ramsey RESET cho thiy mo hinh thyc ngbi?m khdng hi thidu cdc bi6n quan trpng. Kiem djnh Hausman so sanh bai phuong phdp ca ban cho so lieu hdn hgp tiet lg phuong phap hi?u ling ngau nhien phii hgp vdi md hinh thyc nghi?m ban Id phuong phdp hicu ling co dinh, nhu vay nghien ciiu dugc ti&n hanh su dyng hieu ling ngau nhien de gia tang tinh hieu qua cua tham sd udc lugng.
Bang 1 ghi lai ket qua cho tac dung tong hgp tren ca nam nude. Chieu hudng tdc ddng cua cac tham sd udc lugng deu theo ky vgng. Cu the FDI cd tdc dgng tich cue len san lugng binh quan dau ngudi trong khi diu tu ngan ban cd tac dpng tieu cue cho nhdm nam nude. Ca hai tham sd udc lugng deu cd y nghia thdng ke. Xuat khau, vdn vat chat va vdn nhan lyc deu cd tac ddng tich cue va cd y nghia thdng ke len san lugng binh quan dau ngudi. Tham sd udc lugng ciia hai bien tien te - ti gid boi doai thuc va lai suat thyc - deu cd dSu am va cd y nghia thdng ke. Dieu nay phii hgp vdi th\rc te: lai suat thSp khuyen khich dau tu va ti gid hdi doai thip ed lgi eho xuat khau nen gdp phan lam tang san lugng binh quan dau ngudi.
Bang 1 . Tac dong tong h^p ciia FDI va dau t i / ng&n han len GDP binh quan tfau ngu'di
V6n nhSn tyc 0.7759"" 0,2042 C& m3u:
Wald Chi binh phuong;
Trj s i p cho Chi binh pliuong:
H0 s6 R^ ting qudt:
Trj s6 p cho hi$n tugng ty tu'ongquan:
Tri sd p cho kl6m d|nh While:
H$ s6 VIF Irung binh cho da c^ng tuy^n:
Trjsipcho kifimdjnh Hausman:
Trj s6 p cho kiim dinh Ramsey RESET:
eo
675.64 0.0000 0.9037 0.4879
0.4765
2.658
0.6376
0.5879
-'%
• ' .
Ten bien Tham so
lipgng SalsS
chuin Trj s6 p Xuat khau 0,3555" 0,1470 0,016 FDI 0.2481*" 0,0914 0,007 TI SO hoi doai -0,1286"' 0,0365 0,000 Diu tu ngan hgn -0.1097** 0.0464 0,018 Von vgt chii 0.3739*'* 0,0464 0.000 Lai suit -0,1972*' 0,0813 0,015
Ghi chu: " vd " * biiu thj y nghTa thdng ke 5% v4 1%, Iheo thCr l u nSy
De khao sat tac dgng ciia FDI len san lugng bioh quan ddu ngudi trong moi nude, tac gia tao ra boa bien gia cho Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, va VN. Brunei, nuoc chju anh hudng tich cyc nhS^
dugc dimg lam bien co sd cho so sanh va doi cMea Ddi vdi lac dgng cua dau tu ngan h^n, Singapoie la nude duy nhSt chiu anh hudng tich cvrc, va do sfiy dugc dung lam bi6n co sd. Bang 2 ghi l^i ket qua cho hai bien khao sal nay (ket qua cho cdc bien kbic tuong t\r nhu trong Bang I va se dugc cung cap dua tren yeu cdu). Tham so cho moi nuoc dugc cgng v6i tham so cua bien co sd va kiem djnh F dugc tien hanh cho thay moi tong so deu cd y nghia tl _.
So sanh va doi chieu nSm nuoc ke tren, cd-thel^
FDI cd tac dgng tich cvrc len mdi nude va m^olin cho Brunei, thu den Singapore, Philippines,' cudi cung la Malaysia, Iheo dung trinh ty nay.
va m^t dfiu tu ng4n h ^ tac gia phat hien lac dgng tieu cvrc va cd y nghia thong ke len san lucrag binh quan dau nguoi trong bdn nude, ngo^i .tw Singapore, trong dd Philippines chiu anh hucmg nang ng nhat. Tac dgng cua dIu tu ngdn h^n d VN tuong ty nhu d hai nude cdn lai. Vi?c Singapore nhan dugc anh hudng tich c^c cung de hieu: Day la mgt nude da phat trien va cd trinh dg quan li nh*
nude cao nhat, tham nhiing t h ^ nhSt, va sd hiiu mOt he thong tai chinh m ^ nhSt trong sd nam niicic
4 2 "'^"'^'^ ^^ ^ "^^^0 Qdi
P H A T T R I E N K I N H TE ^ ^ ^
nay, do vay la nude duy nhat cd th^ g^t hai thanh qud ciia dau t u ngdn ban.
Bang 2. Tac dong ciia FDI va dau tu* ngln h^n len GDP binh quiin dSu ngUdi d tii'ng nu'dc Ket qua cho hai bien chinh
Ten bien FDI Brunei Malaysia Philippines Singapore VN Dau tu> ngan h^n Singapore Brunei Malaysia Philippines VN Go mau:
Wald Chi binh phuong Trj so p cho Chi binh phuong:
H# so R^ tong quat:
Tri so p cho b/ tuong quan:
Trj so p cho kiem djnh White- He so VIF trung binh cho da CQng tuyen:
Trj so p dio kiim djnh IHauman:
Tr] so p cho kiim djnh Ramsey RESET:
Tham s i u&c \vftyng
0,7549"*
-0,5562*"
-0.3669"
-0,1971"
-0.3720**
0,4473"*
-0.4778*"
-0,4771"' -0,5688"
-0,4799"*
Ghi chu' " va ' " bieu thi ^ nghTa theo thu tu nay.
Sal s i chain
0,1969 0,2056 0,1834 0,0774 0,1638
0.1702 0,1702 0,1696 0,2085 0,1703 80 469,34
0,0000 0,9134 0,5265 0.6102
2,814
0,4398 0,4956
Tri s i P
0,000 0,007 0,046 0.011 0.023
0,006 0,006 0,005 0,042 0.007
1 thing kS 5% vd 1%,
4. Y nghTa va ket luan
Lgi ich cua vice loai bd hoan loan kiem sodt vdn la mdt de tai ddy tranh luan ngay tii khi cugc khung
hodng tai chinh chau A xay ra vdo nhung nam 1997- 1998 vd cdng trd nen quyet li?t sau cupc khiing hoang loan cau 2007-2008. Nghien ciiu li thuyet va thyc nghi?m deu khdng phat hi?n rd tdc dOng tich eye eiia viec tu do hod von dau tu. Hau het cdc nha nghien cuu deu nhat tri mpt quoc gia can cd he thong ngan hang vd tdi chinh trudng thanh cpng them vdi chat lugng cao trong qudn 11 nhd nude de cd the hudng lgi tir khoi lugng dong ehdy tai chinh d at,
K6t qud nghien cim ngy y qud trinh loai bd kiem sodt vdn phai dugc dat trong bdi canh lich sir va vi the ciia timg nude thay cho vice tien hanh ddng thdi vdi nhiing thuang lugng ngoai thuong tai TPP. Thi trudng tai chinh day nhiing nii ro bat thudng, do vay bat ky chinh sach cdi md tdi chinh nao ciing can dugc de xuat vdi nhieu can nhac de trdnh dugc kinh nghiem dau thuang eiia cupc khiing hoang chau A trude kia vd cupc khiing hoang loan cau mdi day.
Mgt khi thi trudng tai chinh da hoan toan md, tdng sd ng ngan hang nude ngoai se tang va gay lo lang ngdy cang tang cho ngudi ddu tu vao thi trudng tien te va va tdi chinh. Dieu nay khiSn cho ngan hang va cdc CO sd tai chinh trong nude de gap phdi tinh trang rut tien ao at.
Ddi vdi trudng hgp VN, viec khdch hang dd xd nit tien se dg dan den vo ng va khiing hoang vi cdc ngan hang tu nhan cdn rat non tre ySu kem va tinh trang do la hod cao nen tru lugng ciia cac ngan hang rdt thdp. Mgt khi khiing hoang xay ra, Ngan hang Nha nude khdng the ciru ndi cac ngan hang tu nhan vi Ngan hang Nha nude cung ed nhirng van de rieng nhu da phan tich d phdn gidi thieu md dau. Dieu nay cd th^ dSn den khimg hoang kinh ti cho ca nude.
Nha nude VN can het siic t h ^ trgng va chi nen cho phep thi trudng tdi chinh dugc md cira cho dau tu ngdn han timg budc theo nhi8u giai d o ^ , ddng thdi giam sdt Id cang cac boat dgng va cdc budc qudn li ciia cdc ngan hang tu nhan. Nhd nude ciing nen giam tinh trang dd la hod bang cdch giam lam phdt va gidm tham hut ngan sdch nhdm ndng cao long tin cua ngudi dan VN vao ddng tien ngi dia.
NGHieNcOu&nu^oedi 4 3
PHAT TRIEN KINH TE So 267, Thang Mpt nam 2013
Do cd mau h^n che vd d^e tinh ciia phuong phdp hieu img ngau nhien, vi^c phan lich dO Idn ciia edc tham so udc lugng can tien hdnh mgt cdch thpn trpng, Ngoai ra, bdi bdo ndy tgp trung phdn lich tdc dpng ciia FDI vd dau tu ngdn han len sdn lugng binh quan dau ngudi. Mgt so de Idi hip dan khdc nhu;
Tim ra tdc dOng eua nhiing bien ndy len muc hi?u dyng cua ngudi dan the hi?n qua mire tieu dung binh quan dau ngudi 'ho^c tdc dgng ciia dau tu ngdn h^
len ndng suat lao dgng cd the thu hut cdc nhd nghien ciiu khdc trong tuang lai«
TAI LI^U THAM KHAO
Aizenman, J., & I. Noy (2006). Endogenous Financial and Trade Openness, ilan Noy Web Site. pp. 1-25.
Edison, H.. Klein, M., Ricci, L,. & S. Torsten (2004). "Capital Accounl Liberalizalion and Economic Performance:
Survey and Synthesis", IMF Staff Papers. Vol, 51, No. 2, pp, 220-256.
Hsieh M. F.. Yaung Y-T, & T.B Vu (2008). "Do Herding Behavior Influence Capital Inflows? Evidence from Asia and Latin America", International Journal of Business and Finance Research, Vol. 2; No. 2,19-34.
Jeanne, 0., Subramanian, A., & J. Williamson (2012), Who Needs to Open the Capital Account?, ISBN Working paper, 978-0-88132-511-9.
Klein, M, (2005), Capital Account Liberalization, Institutional Quality, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence, Fletcher School. Tufts University, and NBER, pp. 1-35.
Krugman, P. (1999), The Return of Depression Economics, Norton & Company, New York. NY.
Moreno, R. Pasadilla, G., & R. Eli (1999), "Asia's Financial Cnsis: Lessons and Implications for Vietnam', m Leung, S. (ed.), Vietnam and the East Asian Crisis. Northampton Publisher (Boston. MA) pp 31 -54.
Ngoc, P.M., & Ramstetter, E.D. (2004), "Foreign Multinationals and Local Firms in Vietnam's Economic Transition", Asian Economic Journal, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 371-404,
Park, Y.C., & C-Y. Song (2008), "Managing Capital Account Liberalization: Indonesia. Malaysia, Korea, and Thailand", in Bakker, A. (ed.) Cap/fa/ Liberalization in Transition Countries, Edward Elgar (Boston, MA) pp. 59-84,
Tanzi, V. (2000), Policies, Institutions and the Dark Side of Economics, Edward Elgar (Boston. MA).
Turley, W. (1999). "Vietnam", in Jackson. K. (ed.). Asian Contagion. Westview Press (Boulder. CO) pp. 269-296.
Vu Bang Tam (2006). Capilai Controls in Malaysia and lessons hr Vietnam. East-West Center Working Paper Series.
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