Tap chf Khoa hpc xa hoi mien Trung, so 4 (30) - 2014
TANG TRUONG KINH TE VIET NAi^
3 NAM D A U TRONG KE HOACH 5 NAM GIAI DOAN 2011-2015
NGO VAN VU*
PHAM VAN NGHIA*
11
MA dau
T
ang trUdng kinh t l la mdt van d l quan trpng trong thuc hien k l hoach phat trien kinh te - xa hoi Viet Nam trong tUng thdi ky. Qua 3 nam, tU nam 2011- 2013, vdi nhdng cd gang, nd luc cCia Chinh phu, Bp, nganh va dja phuong, tang trUdng kinh te cija Viet Nam da dat dupc nhOng thanh cdng nhat djnh nhu duy tri dupc tdc dp tang trUdng kinh t l , dn djnh kinh t l vi md, kiem c h i lam phat d mUc thap. Tuy nhien, n i n kinh te van cdn nhOng han chi, nhieu linh vUc chuyen biln cham, chUa vCtng chic, d bai vilt nay, chung tdi danh gia tang trUdng kinh t l Viet Nam 3 nam, tCr nam 2011- 2013; tU do dua ra nhCfng giii phap thuc day tang trUdng kinh t l Viet Nam trong nhdng nam cdn lai cua k l hoach 5 nam 2011- 2015 va nhdng nam tiep theo.1. Thanh tifu va han che trong tang trUdng kinh te Viet Nam giai doan 2011 - 2013
Muc tieu k l hoach 5 nam giai doan 2011 - 2015 l i duy tri mUc tang trUdng kinh te tU 7 - 7,5%/nam (sau dd Qudc hdi da dieu chlnh giim xudng cdn 6,5 - 7%/nam). Tuy chi tieu
• TS. Tap chi Khoa hoc xa hoi Viel Nam
•• ThS. Hoc Mf n Bio chi v4 Tuyen tniyea
tang trUdng nay da thap hdn so vdi ke hoach 5 nam trUdc (7,5 - 8%/nam}, nhUng thUc t i t a n g trUdng kinh te trong 3 nam 2011 - 2013 van khdng dat k l hoach d l ra.
Tdc dp tang tn/dng kinh t l da cham lai tU nam 2011, nam 2010 tang 6,42%, nam 2011 tang 6,24%, nam 2012 tang 5,25% va nam 2013 tang 5,4%.
Binh quan giai doan 2011 - 2013, tang trUdng kinh t l cua Viet Nam tang 5,6%/nam, thap xa so vdi muc tieu de ra va cung thap hon tdc dp tang binh quan giai doan 2001 - 2010(6,32%/nam).
Tdc dp tang trUdng kinh te binh quan giai doan 2011 - 2013 cua Viet Nam la mdc thap nhat trong 13 nam qua. Trong khi do, tdc dp tang trUdng kinh t l cua mdt sd nUdc trong ASEAN da cd sU cii thien rd ret trong giai doan nay.
Tang trUdng cda khu vUc cdng nghiep va xay dung suy giim nhanh chdng va thap hon nhieu so vdi k l hoach. NhUng van d l dang ndi com trong nen kinh t l chua dupc giii quyet tan gdc nhu: Lii suit cao, t i l p can vdn cdn nhieu khd khan, no xau va hang tdn kho ldn, khi ning tiep can thj trUdng va tieu thu sin pham suy giim, thj trUdng bat ddng sin ddng bang... €)ieu nay da lam cho hoat
12 NGO VAN VO, PHAIM VAN NGHiA ddng cua cac doanh nghiep trong nganh
cdng nghiep va xay dung bj dinh tre, thu hep sin xuat, tham chi pha sin.Theo danh gia cua Bd K l hoach va Bau tU, nam 2012 cd 54.216 doanh nghiep p h i sin phii giii t h i hoac tam ngdng hoat ddng; nam 2013 cd 60.700 doanh nghiep ngdng hoac tam ngUng hoat dpng. Trong dd, cd ca doanh nghiep dau tU true t i l p nude ngoai (FDI).Ty ledoanh nghiep giii t h i , ngUng hoat ddng tang cao la doanh nghiep trong linh vUc tai chinh, ngan hang, doanh nghiep kinh doanh b i t ddng sin va doanh nghiep sin xuat vat lieu xiy dung.
Trong khi dd, sd doanh nghiep hoat ddng trd lai hole dang ky mdi khdng nhieu.
IVIac d(j khdng dat dupc muc tieu d l ra, nhung tang trUdng kinh t l Viet Nam giai doan 2011 - 2013 dat dUpc mdt sd chuyen biln tfch cue:
- Tdc dp tang trUdng GDP binh quan dau ngUdi tinh bang USD theo tjr gia hdi doai thuc t l vUdt muc tieu de ra (nam 2013 dat 1.960 USD/ngUdi).
- Tdc dp tang trUdng nganh dich vu cao nhat 6,34%/nim; nginh ndng nghiep tang 3%/nam va cdng nghiep xay dung t i n g 5,7%/nam.
- Tang trUdng kinh te can it vdn dau t u hon. Giai doan 2006 - 2010, tang trUdng kinh te binh quan can nhilu vdn dau t u thi t U n i m 2011 dennaycanitvdndautUhon.Tylevdn dau t u / tdng sin pha'rn qudc ndi (GDP) binh quan giai doan 2006 - 2010 la 39,2% thi giai doan 2011 -2013 giam cdn 31,1%, thap xa so vdi muc tieu dat ra.
- Tang trUdng kinh t l dat dupc khi t i n g trUdng du no tin dung binh quan thap dat 11% so vdi 33% giai doan 2006 - 2010.
-Tang trUdng kinh teed suddng gdpquan trpng eua xuat khau vdi tde dp tang trUdng cao hon nhieu so vdi tde dd tang trUdng kinh
te va trd thanh ddng lUc cOa tang trUdng kinh te.
2. Nhiifng nhan to tac dong den tang trirdng kinh te Viet Nam
2.1. Anh hWc/ng cua cuoc kbOng hodng kinh te the giai
Tfnh d i n nam 2013, sau 5 nam khOng hoing taf chfnh t h i g i d f , nen kinh te t h i gidi van dang phuc hdi c h i m chap, thieu ben vdng vdi nhilu rdi ro tiem an. Theo danh gia cua Ngan hang the gidi (WB), Quy Tien te qudc t l (IfWF) va Td chUc Hop tac va Phat t r i l n kinh t l (OECD), tang trUdng kinh te the gidi t i l p tue suy giam, nam 2013 chf dat 2,9%, thap hon 0,3% so vdi mdc tang trUdng 3,2% nam 2012; thap hon 1% so vdi mdc tang trUdng 3,9% nam 2011 va 2,3% so vdi mUc tang 5,2% nam 2010.
Tai cac nen kinh t l phat trien, tang trUdng kinh te thap, vdi mdc tang 1,2% nam 2013 thap hon so vdi mUc tang trUdng 1,5% nam 2012, mUe 1,7% nam 2011 va 3% nam 2010.
Nen kinh te cda My ed khdi sac hon do c6 sU dieu ehinh chfnh sach kich thfch tiln te, nhung mdc tang trUdng van g i i m t d 2,8%
nam 2012 xudng cdn 1,6% nam 2013. Tai Nhat Bin, Chfnh phu nude nay d i thUe hien chinh sach ndi Idng tien te quy md ldn da giup n i n kinh t l chuyen b i l n khi quan, duy tri mdc tang trUdng 2%. Trong khi dd, kinh t l cua cae nUdc EU day i m dam, mdc tang trUdng giam tU mdc 0,3% nam 2012 xudng edn 0,0% nam 2013.Cdng hda Lien bangDdc la nude dau tau ve kinh t l cua khu vUc EU vi dpng luc thuc day tang trUdng kinh te Khu vUc ddng tien chung chiu Au (Eurozone), eung chi dat mUc 0,5% nam 2013, t h i p hdn mdc tang trddng 0,9% nam 2012. Phip tang trUdng dat 0,2% nam 2013 cao hon mdc tang trUdng 0,0% nam 2012.Tay Ban Nha da tdng budc t h o i t khdi suy thoai kinh t l vdi
Tap chi Khoa hpc xa h6i mien Trung, so 4 (30) - 2014 113 mdc tang trUdng kinh te dat 13% nam 2013
va mdc t i n g trUdng 1,6% nam 2012.
Cic nude dang phat trien tang trUdng kinh te cung g i i m dang ke. Tdc dp tang trUdng GDP cda cac nUdc dang p h i t trien da g i i m manh XiS mdc tang 7,5% nam 2010, xudng cdn 4,5% nam 2013. Tai Trung Qudc, tang trUdng GDP dat 7,6% nam 2013, mdc thap nhat trong 15 nam qua do cic nha hoach djnh chfnh sach dang kiem c h i eac bien p h i p kfch thfch tang trUdng nham dn djnh taf chfnh v i taf can bang eung cau trong nude. Nen kfnh t l An Bd gap nhieu khd khan, tang trUdng kinh te bj cham lai, chi dat mdc 3,8% nam 2013, thap hon so vdi mdc tang trUdng 6,3% nam 2011. Cae nUde thude khu vUc Odng Nam A t i l p tuc la ddng luctang trUdng kinh t i t o a n cau. Theo Ngan hing Phat trien chau A (ADB), cic nen kinh t l Bdng Nam A dang vuon len trd thanh bp phin quan trpng trong chuoi sin xuat va thudng mai toan c i u . Tang trUdng kinh t l cda cae nUdc Bdng Nam A nam 2013 dat 5,5%. Cac nude chau My Latinhsut giim tang trUdng kinh t l do bj i n h hudng chfnh y l u t d sU suy gfim cua kinh te Trung Quoe, do day l i mpt trong thi trUdng xuat kha'u ldn nhat cda cac nUdc chau My Latinh. Cic nude chau My Latinh, nam 2013 ehi tang trUdng 2,7%, nam 2012 la 2,9% va thap xa so vdi mdc 4,5%
nam 2011.
Sut g i i m thuong mai toan eau eung the hien rd net trong nam 2012. Mdc tang trddng t o i n cau binh quan trong 10 nam (2001 - 2011) l i 6%/nam, trong khi nam 2012 ehi tang khdng day 4%. Kinh te t h i gidj suy giim d i gay t i c ddng ldn d i n kinh t l eac nude tren t h i gidi, trong do ed Viet Nam.
2.2. Tl/ duy chiin litac phat trien kinh te thiiu nhit qudn
Viet Nam dang trong q u i trinh xay ddng n i n kinh t l thi trddng djnh hudng xa hdi chCi
nghia. Qui trinh ddi mdi t u duy dupc bat dau tUBai hpi B i n g lan thd VI (nam 1986), tuy nhien, den nay, tU duy chien Idpc phit trien kinh t l ehUa thUc sd nhat quan. Ve mat ly luan dang dat ra nhdng van de can duoc giii quyet, dd la quyen sd hdu, quin ly ngudn lUc dat nude, tai sin eda nhan d i n . SU thilu nhat q u i n trong t d duy phat triln kinh cdn the hien d nhdng ehiln lupe, quy hoach phat triln nganh, vung kinh t l phi thUc t l , khdng ed Id trinh rd rang, hudng tdi tam nhin qudc gia. Nhieu ehinh sach dan t r i i , da mue tieu nhu chfnh sich phat trfin "vung ddng luc", vung k i n h t l trpng dilm. Co c h l q u i n l y chua thuc sucdng khai, minh bach va cd hieu q u i .
2.3. Chdt luang nguon nhdniifc thdp Ngudn nhan lUc cd nhdng ddng gdp khdng nhd vao viec thde day kinh t l cda Viet Nam, vdi quy md dan sd ldn, ddi dao (khoing 47 trieu ngUdi trong dp tudi lao dpng), k i t cau dan sd tre v i bat dau bUde vio thdi ky"eo eau dan sd vang". Hien nay, dan sd Viet Nam la 90 trieu ngddi, trong dd nd chiem 50,48%.
Dan sd trong dp tudi lao dpng la 57,08 trieu (chiem 66,35% tdng d i n sd).Tde dp t i n g dan sd trong dp tudi lao ddng cao gan gap ddi so vdi tdc dp tang dan sd ndi chung (2,12% so vdi 1,1%). Budc vao k l hoach phat triln kinh t e - x a hdi 5 nam 2011-2015, luc lupng lao ddng van tiep tue tang nhanh vdi nam 2012 tang them 1,2 trieu lao ddng tuong ddong 2,2% so vdi nam 2011. Bdng gdp eda ngudn nhan lUc v i o tang trUdng GDP giai doan 1991 - 2000 la 28,6%/nam, giai doan 2001 - 2012 la 21,3%.
Tuy chat lupng lao dpng ngay cang t i n g , nhung t^ le lao ddng d i qua dao tao, cd trinh dp cao cua Viet Nam thap va cd sUchenh lech ldn gida thanh thj va ndng thdn. Nim 2011, ty le lao ddng da qua dao tao la 43%, n i m 2012 Ia46%va n i m 2013 l i 49%. Trong bdi cinh theo dudi md hinh t i n g trddng kinh t l
14 i NGO VAN VO, PHAM VAN NGHIA theo chieu sau dUa vao hi^u qua nguon von
va chat lUpng nguon nhan lUe, sU gia tang cda nguon nhan lUe qua dao tao la nhan to mang tinh quyet djnh.
2A. Dong gop cda ndng suat cdc yeu to tong hafp (TFP) vao CDP thap
Dong gop eCia yeu to TFP vao tang trUdng kinh tecua Viet Nam con thap va CO xuhu6ng giam sut nhanh trong giai doan 2001 - 2012.
Thdi ky 1991 - 2000, tang trUdng GDP do yeu to TFP !a 36,7%; den giai doan 2001 - 2012 la 26%. Nhin chung, dong gop cua TFP vao tang trUdng cua Viet Nam thap hon nhieu so vdi con so 35 - 40% eCia mpt so nUde va lanh tho trong khu vUe, eu the la Han Quoc:
32,2%; Oai Loan: 35%; indonexia: 28%; Thai Lan: 36%. Nang suat lao dpng eua Viet Nam thap so vdi cac nUde tren the gidi do trinh dp ky thuat, cong nghe thap, cong tae qu^n ly con nhieu han che, san xuat phu thupc nhieu vao thien nhien, dac biet la san xuat ndng nghiep.
3. Mot so gidi phap thuc day tang trUdng kinh te Viet Nam trong thdi gian tdi
£)e thUc hien disgc eac muc tieu tang trUdng kinh te hai nam eon lai cua ke hoach 5 nam 2011 - 2015, Viet Nam can thUe hien tot cac giai phap sau day:
Thd nhdt, day manh tdi cd cdu kinh te theo hudng tdng chat lUang vd hieu qud gdn vdi chuyen doi md hinh tdng trddng.
Tai cP cau nen kinh te can tap trung Uu tien cho 3 Unh vUe quan trpng theo tinh than Nghj quyet Hpi nghj Trung uong 3, khoa XI eua Dang, do la: Tai cP cau dau tU, trpng tam la dau t u cong; tai eP cau doanh nghiep nha nude, trpng tam la cac tap doan va tong cong ty nha nUdc; tai co cau he thong tai ehinh, trong tam la he thong ngan hang thuong mai. Theo do la phai eo nhilfng bien phap hdu hieu de kich cau cho nen kinh te.
Ve tdi CO cdu dau td, Chinh phO nhanh chdng hoan thien LuSt Dau t u cdng; ehi dao cac Bp, nganh, co quan, dja phuong tiep tuc thUc hien eac ke hoach dau tU cdng mpt each cd hieu qua, khac phuc dau tudan trai, lang phi. Dong thdi, tang eUdng cong tac kiem tra, giam sat, thanh tra dam bao quan ly thong nhat. Bp Ke hoaeh va Oau t u ra soat dUa ra nhufng cdng trinh trpng diem, cap thiet can Uu tien, von ddi u'ng cho cac d u an ho trp phat trien chinh thCKc (ODA), vdn giai phdng mat bang, xay dung nong thdn mdi de dau tU tu" nguon ngan sach nha nUdc va trai phleu chinh phCi.
Ve tdi cd cdu doanh nghiep nhd nude (DNNN), Chinh phu da phe duyet Di an tai cP eau DNNN den nam 2015, do vay cae Bp, nganh, dja phuong theo chUc nang, nhiem vu dupc giao can trien khai thUc hien nghiem tue theo de an nay, nhat la trach nhidm eCia ngUdi dUng dau cae tap doan, tong edng ty, DNNN. Chinh phu can dinh hUdng den nam 2015, ddng gdp cua khu vUc DNNN vao GDP c h i d mdc 15-18% va xudng dUdi miJc10%
vao nam 2020 nhu hau het cac nUde tren tlie gidi. Ben canh dd, Chfnh phCi can ho trp cac doanh nghiep ed kh^ nang phat trien mot phan tu" ngan sach nha nUdc dUdi cac hinh thde xoa np, khoanh np, gian no, chuyen nd va bo sung vdn. Van de quan trpng la can edng khai minh bach trong qua trinh xCrly np. Chinh phu va eac Bd, nganh day manh xuc tien thuong mai tao dieu kien cho cic doanh nghiep eCing co va md rdng thj trUdng trong va ngoai nude de gicii quyet hang ton kho, tieu thu hang hda, cd von trS np va 6i tiep tue md rdng san xuat kinh doanh.
Vetdi cdcdu hithongtdi chfnh,BqTaich\nh ehCi tri phoi hop vdi Ngan hang Nha nUdc Viet Nam va cae Bd, co quan, dja phUdng thuc hien dong bd eac giSi phap theo d4 an tai eau trijc ngan hang, thi trUdng chdng
Tap chi Khoa hpc xa hpi mien Trung, so 4 (30) - 2014
I 15
khoan. Ddng thdi, khan truong nghien cUu, hoan thien mdi trUdng phap ly nham thiic diy phat trien thi trUdng tai ehinh lanh manh, an toan. Cac ngan hang can ra soatky viee phan loai np xau eho chinh xae, cd giSi phap de tiep tuc cho vay doi vdi cac doanh nghiep cd kh^ nang tiep tuc phat trien; nam that chinh xae eac thdng tin ve khach hang va phcii thUc sU nang cao chat lUpng dao ddc nghe nghiep ciia cae can bp ngan hang.
Thd hai, tdng cUdng thu hdt ddu td nude ngodi cho phdt trien kinh te.
Trong boi e^nh thi trUdng bat ddng san ddng bang va np xau eua he thdng tin dung cao nhu hien nay, viec thu hut vdn dau t u trUc tiep nUdc ngoai (FDI) la van de trd nen hetsdcean thiet.Tuy nhien, de thu hut dupe dau t u nUdc ngoai thi Viet Nam can phai cai thien mdi trUdng kinh doanh on djnh va hap dan cac nha dau tUnUdc ngoai.Trong nhieu nam qua, mdt trong nhdng nguyen nhan chinh khien moi trUdng kinh doanh cua Viet Nam ngay cang xau di la do te nan tham nhung. Tham nhCing khdng chi trong linh viSc kinh te, ma cdn ed d cac ITnh vUe khac nhU; Giao due, y te, thUc hien ehinh sach xa hdi, tham ehi xuat hien ca trong eac CP quan cdng quyen, CO quan bao ve phap luat...
Vidba, cdt gidm chi tieu ngan sdch vdgidm cdc loai thue phi nham ho tra san xudt kinh doanh cho cdc doanh nghiep.
Oe dSm b^o can ddi ngan sach nha nude kh^ thi, Chinh phu chi dao cac Bd, nganh Trung uong, dja phuong ra soat, loai bd eac chinh s^eh, che do ehi khdng hpp ly, han che viee dng vdn cac dU an dau t u do khd khan ve can ddi ngan sach va huy ddng vdn; dam b^o can ddi ngan sach cac cap, chia sk khd khan gida n g i n sach Trung UPng va cae dja phuong. Hien nay, bdi chi ngan sach eCia Viet Nam xzip xi 5% GDP, do vay can eat giSm chi
tieu ngan sach, nhat la khoan chi thudng xuyen (ehiem tdi 20% GDP va gap hon 3 ian ehi dau tU phat trien). Ben eanh dd, md rpng ddi tUpng ehju thue; tang thue suat thue nhap khau doi vdi cae mat hang khdng khuyen khich nhap khau va eac mat hang ed kha nang san xuat trong nude; tang thue suat thue xuat khau doi vdi eac san pham tU khai thac tai nguyen.
Tiep tuc trien khai quyet Het va ed hieu qua eac giai phap thao gd khd khan eho doanh nghiep ve san xuat kinh doanh, hd trp thi trUdng, xU ly np xau. Thdi gian gan day, Viet Nam mdi giam thue suat thu nhap doanh nghiep (TNDN) xudng cdn 22%, tuy nhien day van la mdc thue cao. Viet Nam can ed Id trinh cat giam manh hPn nda thue TNDN xudng dudi 20% vao nam 2015. TrUdc het la thUe hien chinh sach gia han thdi gian nop thue TNDN, gia trj gia tang (VAT), gian, khoanh no cho cac doanh nghiep hoat ddng trong ITnh vUc san xuat, gia cong, che bien ndng, lam, thuy Scin, det may, da giay... ma ed nhieu ngUdi lao dong.
Thd tu, xdy dung nen hanh chfnh cong khai, minh bach va tdng cudng trdch nhiem gidi trinh.
ThUc te, hien nay, nen hanh chinh d Viet Nam van dang la rao can ldn eho sU phat trien kinh te - xa hpi. Oe khac phuc van de nay, can cdng khai cac khoan chi tieu edng va minh bach cac tieu chi phan bo vdn dau tUtUngan sach nha nude de giam co che xin- cho; phat huy vai trd giam sat eCia Qudc hdi va ngUdi dan. Dong thdi, cac co quan nha nUdc phai thUe hien day du trach nhiem gicii trinh ve viec sddung eac nguon lUc cdng de hoat ddng va thUc hien cac chdc nang cua minh; cdcp che gan trach nhiem ngUdi dUng dau CO quan neu sd dung nguon lUc khdng hieu qua, khdng dung muc di'ch. Neu thUc hien tdt, giai phap nay se lam eho nhiJng
16 I
NGO VAN VCl, PHAIM VAN NGHiAngUdi hoach djnh chinh sach, ngUdi sddung ngudn luc cdng cd trach nhiem hon vdi quylt djnh cua minh.
TAI Lieu THAM KHAO
1. fling Cdng sin Viet Nam (2011), Vdn kien Dal hoi dgi bleu todn quoc lan thiiXI, Nxb Chinh tri qudc gia. H i Ndi.
2. Chfnh phd Viet Nam (2011), Bdo cdo tinh hinh kinh te-xa hoi ndm 2011, Ke hoach phdt trien kinh te-xa hpi ndm 2012 vd 5 ndm 2011-2015, tai Ky hpp thd2, Qudc hdi khda XIII, ngay 20 t h i n g 10nim2011.
3. Chinh phu Viet Nam (2012), Bdo cdo Wnh hinh kinh te-xd hoi ndm 2012 vd nhiim vu ndm 2013, tai phien khai mac Ky hpp thd 4, Qudc hdi khda XIII, ngiy 22 thing 10 nam 2012.
4. GS. TS. Tran Thp flat (2013), Sdo cdo ddnh gid glOa ki/ tinh hinh thitc hiin ke hoach S ndm phdt trien kinh te -xdhql 2011 - 20 IS, Ky yeu hdi t h i o khoa hpc qudc t l " N h i n lai nda ching dudng phat trien kinh t e - x i hdi 5
nam 2011 - 2015 va nhOfng dieu chinh chien lupe". Ha Npi.
5. PGS.TS.TdBdc Hanh (2013), Thi/chlin chi tliu tdng truing kinh te Viit Nam trong ke hoach 5 ndm 2011 - 2015, K^ yeu hpi thio khoa hpe qudc te"Nhin lai nda ching dudng p h i t trien kinh t l - x i hdi 5 nam 2011 -2015 va nhdng dieu chinh chiin lupe". Ha Ndi.
6. Nguyin Thj Mui (2012), ThUc trgng no xdu tai cdc Ngdn hdng Viit Nam vd gidi phip thdogd,Tap ehi Tdi chlnh, sd 11, H i Ndi.
7. Nguyen KiTuan (Chd bidn, 2013), Kinh te Viet Nam ndm 2012: On dinh kinh te v!m6 vd thOc ddy tdi ca cdu kinh te, Nxb Bai hpc K i n h t l qudc d i n , Ha Ndi.
8. PGS. TS. Nguyen Sinh Cue (2014), TSng quan kinh te Viet Nam ndm 2013 vd du Mo ndm 2014, Tap chlCdng sdn, sd 855, Hi Ndi.
9.Tinh hinh kinh te-xa hoi ndm 2010,2011, 2012 vd 6 thdng ddu ndm 2013, www.chinh- phu.vn.
