NGHIEN CCrU - TRAO BOI
N H Q N G T A C DONG CHU YEU CUA BIEN DO! KHi HAU Vefl stf PHAT TRIEN KINH TE -• XA HOI VUN6 BAC TRUNfi BO
Cac hoat dOng ciia con ngUdi trong nhi^u thap ky g^n ddy da lam gia tang ddng k^
nhiJng tac nhan gay hieu ling nhd kinh (n6ng do khi thai trong eac hoat dOng cdng nghiep, giao thOng, sU gia tang ddn sd...), lam Uai dat nOng dtn ldn, tiJf dd gSy ra hang loat nhffng thay d^i Uong mdi trUdng tU nhien. N^u chung ta khdng co nhiJng hanh ddng kip thdi nham ban che, giam thieu tac dOng va tim idem nhffng giai phap d^ thich ffng thi hdu qua mang d^n se vd ciing nang nl.
Bien doi khi hau la sU bie^n dgng Uang thai trung blnh cua khi quy^n toan can hay khu vUe theo thdi gian tff vdi thdp ky de'n hang tridu nam. Nhffng bid'n d^i nay dugc gay ra do qua trinh dOng lffc cua trai deft, bffc xa mat trdi va gan day cd them hoat dgng cua con ngUdi. Bien ddi khi hau trong thdi gian tff d^u the'ky XX de'n nay dffdc gdy ra hen quan chu ye^u de^n cac boat ddng cfiacon ngffdi.
Theo dff bao ciia Uy ban Lien Qudc gia vl bi^n doi khi hau (IPCC), d^n nam 2100 nhi6t do toan can se tang thdm til 1,4°C tdi 5,8°C. Stf ndng len cua bl mat drdi dat se ldm bang tan d hai ctfc va cac vung nui cao, lam mtfc ntfdc bi^n ddng cao them
TRirONG DtNH TRQNG Trudng D^i hgc Khoa hgc Hue trung binh khodng 90cm (theo kich bdn eao), se nhan chim mflt sd'ddo nhd vd nhilu vffng ddng b^ng ven biln cO dia hinh thd'p. Cung theo dtf bdo ndy, cai gia ma m§i quo'c gia phdi trd dl giSi quye't hau qua ciia bien doi khi hdu trong mgt vai chuc nam nffa se vao khodng tff 5-20% GDP moi nam, Uong dd chi phi vd ton thd't d cac ntfdc dang phat trien se ldn hOn nhieu so vdi cac ntfdc phat trien.
Vidt Nam la ntfdc dang phdt triln, phdt thai khi gdy hidu ling nha kinh d mffc dd cdn thS^p, nhffng lai phai hffng ehiu nhilu tdc dOng cua bie^n ddi khi hau. Theo danh gid cua Ngdn hang The^gidi (2007), Viet Nam la mdt trong so' cac nffdc se hi anh hffdng nghidm Uong cua bien ddi khi h§u va ntfdc
NhiSu xa cua tinh Quang Binh ngap chim trong nudc lu
2012 LNi
• ^ ^ r 7 HUdNG Tdl KY NIEM 410 NAM QUANG BINH HiNH THANH VA PHAT TRIEN (1604-2014)
NGHigN CCru - TRAO o 6 l
bi^n dSng, trong d6 vilng <j6ng bSng S6ng H6ng vi d6ng bkng S6ng CSu Long bi nglp chim nhieu nhat. N^u tni^c nUdc bidn dSng Im se c6 10% dSn sd'bi ^nh hifdng tri^c tidp, tdn tha't Icho^ng 10% GDP, ndu mfdc bien dSng 3m se c6 khodng 25% dSn sd bj dnh hirdng trtfc tidp vi tdn thg't Ichodng 25%
GDP.
VOng BSC Trung Bp cua Vi?t Nam bao gdm 6 tinh Ik: Thanh Ho^, Ngh$ An, Hk Tinh, Qudng Blnh, Qudng Tri, Thita Thien Hue vdi tdng dien tich tU nhien trdn 51,5 nghin W , dSn sd khodng 11 trieu ngiffli.
Day Id khu vifc hep ve chidu ngang, tat cd cdc'tinh ddu tidp gidp vdi bidn 6 phfa Dong, phia Tay la vilng ddi nui cd d6 ddc khd ldn.
Nhin chung, ddy la khu vvfc c6 didu kien tU nhifin ttfdng ddi khdc nghifit, thlfSng xuySn chiu anh htfdng cua thidn tai, ddi sdng ngtfdi ddn con gap nhidu khd khdn, md'c sdng cdn
±a'p, nen kinh te chu ydu phu thupc vdo sdn xud'tnong - lam - ngtf nghiep.
Vung Bac Trung Bp la mdt trong nhifng ndi chiu anh htfdng nhieu nhat tuf thidn tai.
Qua thtfc tidn cho tha'y day Id khu vtfc dang chiu dnh htfdng it nhat cfla 8 loai hinh do thien tai, hidm hoa gay ra bao gdm: Bdo, lu
(kd cd la qudt), lut, han han, sat Id ddt, ldc, xdm nhdp mdn vd xdi Id bd sdng bd bidn.
Hidn nay, dnh htfdng va tdc dpng cua bien ddi khi hdu nhtf stf ndng ldn cia trdi da't, ntfdc bien ddng, dien bidn cua khi hdu ngdy cdng khdc nghidt khdng cdn Id chuydn cua th^
gidi, ciia nhiing nhd khoa hpc ma n6 dangtrS thdnh mpt hidm hoa thtfc stf cho Viet Nam, trong dd cd khu vtfc Bdc Trung Bp. Thidn tai vd cdc hidn ttfdng thdi tidt cifc dpan do dnli htfdng ciia bidn ddi kh! hau dang ngdy cdng trd ndn thtfdng xuydn hdn vdi ctfiJng do manh hdn, gay dnh htfdng ldn ddn cdc boat dpng kinh te - xa hpi ciia khu vtfc. VI vdy, can phdi cd nhiJng nghidn ciJu nhdm tim kidm nhifng gidi phdp dd thich ling vdi bidn ddi kbi hau, han che nhiJng tdc ddng tidu ctfc gdp phdnthucdayphdttridnkinhtd- xahpib^n viJng cho viing Bdc Trung Bp.
2. Kich ban bi^n ddi ktai hdu d khu vifc B^c Trung B$
Dtfa tren tdi lieu "kich bdn bidn ddi Ichi hdu vd ntfdc bien dang cho Vidt Nam" vd cdc cdng trinh nghien cihi cd lidn quan, kich bdn bidn ddi khi hdu viing Bac Trung B5 difdc xdcdinhnhtfsau:
* Kfch bdn thay doi ve nhi$tdQ:
- Su gia Idng nliiet dQ so vdi thdi ky 1980 1999 theo kfch bdn phdt Ihii thdp (Bl)
Viing Bdc Trung Bd
Cde mdc thiri gian ciia the ky XXI 2020
0,6 2030
0,8 2040
1,1 2050
1,4 2060
1,6 2070
1,7 2080
1,8 2090
1,9 2100
1,9 - SI/ gia lang nhiel do so vdi Ihdi ky 1980-1999 theo kich bdn phdt thdi trung binh (B2):
Vilng Bdc Trung B6
Cac mdc thdi gian ciia thd ky XXI 2020
0,5 2030
0,8 2040
1,1 2050
1,5 2060
1,8 2070
2,1 2080
2,4 2090
2,6 2100
2,8
^ ^ < ( ' H t f d N G T 6 | KY N | | M 410 NAM QUitNG B I N H HlNH THANH vA PHAT TRIEN (1604-2014) ) ^
NGHl£NCCrU - TRAO DOI
- Sif gia tang nhi$l d0 so vdi Ihdi ky 1980-1999 Iheo kich bdn phdt Ihdi cao (A2):
1 Viing
I Bdc Trung Bd
CAc mdc thM gian cua thd ky XXI 2020
0,6 2030
0,9 2040
1,2 2050
1,5 2060
1,8 2070
2,2 2080
2,6 2090
3,1 2100
2,6
* Kich bdn thay ddi vilu^g miia:
- Theo kich bdn phdt thdi thd'p (B1): Vao cudi thd'ki XXI, Itfdng mtfa ndm d Bac Trung BO cd thd tang 5%, Itfdng mtfa thdi k^ tU thdng III den thdng V se gidm tOf 3 - 6%, Itfdng mtfa cdc thdng cao didm cia miia mtfa
cudi the ky XXI, Itfdng mtfa nam d Bdc Trung Bp cd thd tdng 10% Itfdng mtfa tuf thdi ki tit thdng TU dd'n thdng V sd gidm khodng 13%, Itfdng mtfa cdc thdng cao diem cia miia mtfa se tSng tit 12-19% so vdi thdi ky 1980- 1999.
- Miic thay doi lUflng mUa ndm (%) so vdi thdi ky 1980 -1999 theo kfch bdn (Bl) Viing
Bdc Tnmg B6
Cdc mdc thilri gian ciia thf ky XXI 2020
1,5 2030
2,2 2040
3,1 2050
3,8 2060
4,3 2070
4,7 2080
4,9 2090
5,0 2100
5,0
- Miic thay dd'i lUdng mUa (%) so vdi Ihdi Ihdi ky 1980-1999 theo kich bdn B2:
Viing
Bdc Trung B6 2020
1,5 2030
2,2
Cac mdc thill gian ciia the ky XXI 2040
3,1 2050
4,0 2060
4,9 2070
5,7 2080
6,4 2090
7,1 2100
7,7
• Miic Ihay doi luang mUa (%) so vdi thdi thdi ley 1980-1999 theo kjch bdn A2:
Viing
Bdc Trung B6
Cac mdc thiii gian ciia thd ky XXI 2020
1,8 2030
2,3 2040
3,0 2050
3,7 2060
4,8 2070
5,9 2080
7,1 2090
8,4 2100
9,7 se tdng tir 6 de'n 10% so vdi thdi ki 1980 -
1999.
'. - Theo kich bdnphdl thdi trung binh (B2):
Vao cudi thd ki XXI, Itfdng mtfa nam d Bac Trung B6c6thetdng7-8% ltfdng mtfa ttt thdi 'kj- thdng III ddn thang V se gidm ttt 4-7%
Itfdng mtfa cdc thdng cao didm cia mua mtfa setangtttlO-15% so vdi thdiki 1980-1999.
- Theo kich ban phdt thdi cao (A2): Vdo
* Kich bdn ve mUc nU&c bien dang:
Mot sd nghien ciJu gan ddy cho rang mtfc ntfdc bidn todn cau cd thd tang 50-140cm vdo nam 2100. Kdt qud tinh toan theo cac kich bdn phdt thdi cho tha'y vdo gitta the' ki XXI mtfc ntfdc bien cd thd ddng them tif 28- 33cm vd de'n cudi thd ki XXI la 65- 100cm so vdi thdiki 1980-1999.
Nhtf vay, bien ddi khi hdu cd khd nang
~;^ l( Ht/CING Tdl K* NIf M 410 NAM QUANG BiNH HiNH THANH VA PHAT TRIEN (1604-2014)
NGHlENCLfU - TRAOQOI
- Muc nudc biin ddng (cm) so vdi Ihdi kl 1980-1999:
Kich ban phat thai Thdp(Bl) Trung binh (B2) Cao(AlFl)
Cdc mdc thiri gian ciia thdky XXI 2020
11 12 12
2030 17 17 17
2040 23 23 24
2050 28 30 33
2060 35 37 44
2070 42 46 57
2080 50 54 71
2090 57 64 86
2100 65 75 100 ldm gia tdng sff kh^c nghidt cfia ch^ dO khi
h£iu khu vffc, eu the nhff sau:
Nhiet do trung binh ndm tdng khodng 0,I°C / thdp k^. MOt sd thdng miia hd, nhidt dd tdng khoang 0,1- 0,3''C/ thap ky. Ve miia dong, nhiet do gidm di trong cdc thang dau mffa, tang ldn trong cac thdng cudi mffa.
Lffdng mffa tdng 10%, cffdng dd mffa tdng tff 5-10%. Nhffng di thffdng din de'n lu lut vd ban han se nhilu hdn, xam nhdp man xay ra manh hdn d khu yffc dong bang.
Mua bao co th^ keo dai them, tin suat bao cd ihi xuat hidn thffdng xuyen hdn, cffdng do bao co thi manh thdm.
Dd'n nam 2070, Iffdng bo'c hdi tang len tff 3 - 8% Iffdng mffa tang It khong du bu lai Iffdng nffdc bdc hdi da din den d6ng chdy trdn cdc song giam tff 23 - 40,5%, nha't Id mffa kidt.
Nhffng dong chdy lu lai cd xu thd' tang do cffdng do mffa tang.
Mffc nffdc bien ddng cao them 3- 15cm vdo nam 2010 va 100cm vao nam 2100 lam cho x6i Id, boi Id'p bd sdng, bd bien tdng.
3. Tac a^ng cua bid'n doi khi hSu d§'n stf phat trid'n kinh te- xa h0i vung B^c Trung BO
a) Tdc dgng cua bien doi khi hqu dS'n ndng nghidp:
Trong Iinh vffc ndng nghiep va phat trien ndng thdn, BDKH tac dgng dd'n sdn xua't ndng nghidp va an ninh Iffdng thffc r^t idn:
bi^n dgng ve dien tich canh tac do nffdc bien dang (viang ven bien vd vffng trung thSp), bi^n ddng vl nang sud^t c§y trdng, thay d^icfl cd'u, thdi vu cay trdng vdt nudi; thay ddi ngudn nffdc cho sdn xuat; bi^n ddng nang su^t sdn Iffdng cay trdng, vat nudi.
Khi nffdc bien d§ng cao Im vdo nam 2010, khodng tren 7% dien tich cua viing bj ngap, khodng trdn 10% dien tich dat san xuat nong nghiep va rijfng phdng hg ven sdng, ven biln se bi mat do ngdp vd nhidm man. Ngoai ra, mdt sd dien lich da^t ndng nghidp cflng phai chuyin muc dich suf dung sang lam nha d, cac cong trinh cdng cgng de phuc vu cho vide di dan, tai dinh cff cho ngffdi dan vfingbj ngap, sat id, vung cd nguy cd cao... Khi dien tich canh tdc bi thu hep, san Iffdng nong nghiep san xud't giam, tac dgng trffc tiep d^n ddi sd'ng cua cff ddn ndng thdn, keo dai tinh trang nghdo ddi.
Mdt khdc, bid'n doi se lam gia tang nhflng hidn tffdng cffc doan cua thdi tid't. Hidntrfdng bao lu, dp thap nhidt ddi... se xay ra thffffng xuyen vdi tan suat ldn hdn va nong nghi6p va nong thon chiu tac dgng trffc tiep nh^t.
Thien tai khong chi dnh hffdng cdy trong tren dong rudng, lam gidm nang sua't liia va dc cay Iffdng thffc khdc hay mat mua mi con pha huy cac kho tang sau thu hoach, cdccfing tnnh thuy ldi... Kha nang han han ciing se tang do thdi tiet kho nong xuat hien nhifiu hdn lam tang nguy cd sa mac hod ding mgng
WMdm Tdl K^ NIEM 410 NAM QUANG BJNH HJNH THANH VA PHAT TRIEN (1604-2014) j ^ ] ^
NGHIEN c u u - TRAO DOI
vd tang nhu can nffdc cho sdn xuSft ndng nghiep. Ddc bidt, BDKH se ldm thay dii dilu kidn khi hau ndng nghigp, thay dii cd can thdi vu, pha vd tdp qudn canh tdc tff ldu ddicffangffdidan.
Bien dii se gia tdng nguy cd dich bdnh cho cdy tring vd vdt nudi. Nhi$t dO cao ldm cho sdu bdnh phdt triln, d l phdng trdnh, ngffdi dan se dung nhilu hod chd't thffc vdt tff dd lam tdng chi phi sdn xua't vd gdy d nhiem mdi trffdng.
Trong ITnh vffc thuy lgi vd tai nguydn nffdc, BDKH tao ndn sff thay doi vl tdi nguydn nffdc tai cdc lffu vffc sdng, tdng lffu Iffdng vdo mua lu, khd kidt vdo mffa kho, ldm mitt can b^ng nffdc, anh hffdng den quy hoach va phat triln hd thdng de sdng, dd bao, hd thdng cd'p thodt nffdc, tffdi tieu.
Trong dilu kien khoang tren 70% Iffdng nffdc cua cdc con sdng trong khu vffc diu tdp trung vao mua mffa 10, bid^n ddi khi hdu vdi hieu ffng la nhidt dd tdng cao vd mffc nffdc bien ddng se gia tang sff khac bidt ve ting Iffdng nffdc giffa hai mua trong ndm. Sff can kidt nguon tai nguyen nffdc nggt trong cdc lffu vffc sdng vdo mua khd kem theo xam nhdp mdn gia tdng se gdy thid'u nffdc cho sinh boat, ndng nghiep, cdng nghidp... Trong khi do vdo mua mffa, vdi lffu Iffdng vd mffc nffdc lu ldn se pha vd hd thong de bao, cdc edng ttinh cd sd ha tang... phuc vu cho tffdi tidu nong nghidp. Ddng chay lu gia tang cd khd nang vffdt qua cac thdng sd thid't ke ho, ddp, tac dgng tdi an todn ho dap vd qudn ly tdi nguydn nffdc...
b) Tdc d0ng cua bien dSi khihqu din ldm nghidp vd da dang sinh hgc:
- Bii'n dSi khi h$u ldm suy gidm quy dd't rUng vd dien tich riXng:
Dien tich rffng ngdp man ven bien chiu
tin that to ldn do nffdc biln ddng; Nguy cd chuyin dich didn tich dat lam nghiep sang dat ddnh cho cdc ITnh vffc khdc Id tdc d0ng gidn tid'p song cd thi coi Id tdc ddng Idn nhd't dd'i vdi sdn xud't ldm nghiep.
- Bie'n doi khi h^u ldm thay ddi ca cdu td chiic rCtng:
Ndng eao nln nhidt dd, Iffdng mffa, Iffdng bde hdi, gia tdng bao, cac cffc tri nhidt d|, cffdng dd mffa vd suy gidm ehi sd ^m ffdt.. . ldm ranh gidi giffa khi h$u nhidt ddi vd ranh gidi nhiet ddi vdi nln nhidt dd d nhidt ddi, dn ddi deu dich chuyin Idn cao, tffc la ve phia dinh nffi. Rffng cdy hg dau md rdng len phia Bac vd cdc dai cao hdn, rffng rung Id vdi nhilu cdy chiu ban phat trien manh...
- Bie'n ddi khi hau ldm suy gidm chdt lUcfng ritng:
Phdt triln dang ke nhilu sSu bdnh mdi nguy hai hdn hoac cac sdu bdnh ngoai lai.
Cac qud trinh hoang mac hod lam suy giam nghiem trgng chat Iffdng dd't, chi sd am ffdt giam di gay ra suy giam sinh khd'i trdn hau het cac loai rffng, dac bidt Id rffng san xuat.
So' Iffdng quan the cua cdc lodi dgng vat riJfng, thffc vat qu^ hii'm gidm sut de'n mffc suy kiet dan dd'n nguy cd tuydt chung.
- Gia tdng nguy cachdy rdng: do nln nhidt do cao hdn, Iffgng bdc hdi nhilu hdn, thdi gian vd cffdng dd khd ban gia tdng.
- Bien ddi khi hdu gdy kho khdn cho cong tdc bdo ton da dang sinh hoc:
Cdc bien dgng, cdc dieu kidn tff nhien va tai nguyen thidn nhien do BDKH, he sinh thai rffng se bi suy thodi tram trgng, gdy ra nguy cd tuyet chung cua mgt sdloai, lam ma't di nhieu gen quy hiem.
BDKH cd thi ldm nffdc bien ddng, nhiet do tang, ehu ky sinh khi hdu thay doi, thidn tai gia tdng ca ve tan sud^t l§n cffdng dd... T^t So4[J7
2012 LN; HffdNG Tdl KY NIEM 410 NAM QUANG BJNH HINH THANH VA PHAT TRIEN (1604-2014)
•><
NGHIEN CLAJ - TRAO DOI
cd cdc yl^u td'ndy se tdc ddng tong hdp dl^n mdi trffdng vd ndi sdng ciaa sinh vdt, dnh hffdng nghiem trgng dl^n ddi sdng sinh vdt vd ta't nhidn se tdc d0ng cdc nS lffc nh^m bdo vg thd' gidi tff nhidn, trong dd bao gdm cd cdng tac bdo tin da dang sinh hgc.
Mffc nffdc bien dang trffdc m^t se tdc ddng bd't ldi dd'n cdc hd sinh thdi ven biln, nhff vilng d^t ngdp nffdc, rffng ngdp mdn.
Nffdc biln dang cung dong nghia vdi sff mdn hod d^m phd nffdc Id ven biln diln hinh cua khu vffc, lam mat tinh chu ky hdng ndm vd cd thi dnh hffdng nghiem trgng de^n cau true thdnh phtn lodi sinh vdt hidn dang c6 mdt.
c) Tdc dgng cua bien ddi khi h$u dS'n ngdnh thu^ sdn:
Trong linh vffc thuy sdn, tdc ddng tdi nguon lgi thuy san, dien tich nudi trong thu^
san; den nang sud't, sdn Iffdng khai thac va danh bat thuy san. Nhidt dd nffdc biln tang lam nguon ldi thuy hai san phan tan. Cdc lodi ca nhidt ddi tang ldn, trff Iffdng cac loai hai san cd gid tri kinh te' bi gidm. Hidn tffdng ENSO tang lam thay doi vi tri mat dd cd thong qua cau true cac viing nffdc va dong hai lffu khac nhau. Nffdc biln ddng se tdc dgng manh nhat de'n hd tho'ng song hi, d^m phd, dac bidt Id cac vung nudi trong thuy sdn.
Ne'u mffc nffdc biln dang cao thdm Im thi toan bg he thdng bd ngdn, de quai hidn c6 se khong cdn khd nang s^ dung, nhieu didn tich nuoi trong thuy sdn se chim sdu trong nffdc man.
Thdi gian anh hffdng cua bao kdo dai, t^n sua't xulft hidn bao thffdng xuydn hdn lam giam thdi gian danh bat, chi phi xang dau phong tranh bao Idn. Bao lut phd hoai nhilu ngff cu khai thac cd dinh trdn dam phd, biln (nghi nd sao, day, long ca,..) tang chi phi sffa chffa. Lu lut ldn thffdng xuydn xay ra lam
bid'n dii ddng chdy, ddng chay cua cac vung cffa sdng dnh hffdng den hanh trinh tau thuyin khai thdc thuy sdn, cdc luong di cir sinh trffdng cua cd. Thdi tid't bien dgng manh ldm dnh hffdng dd'n mua vu nudi trdng, dich bdnh phdt sinh dnh hffdng de'n nang su^tnuoi trong.
BDKH se ldm thay doi moi trffdng ttf nhien dan d^n bien doi da dang sinh hpc, t|p tinh sdng cua cdc loai dgng thffc v|t thuj sinh; bi^n ddng nguon gidng trong tff nhien.
Khi nhidt do tang qua cao, ddng v$t nuoi trong cdc ao ho cd the ch^t, chdm ldn, an kdm. . . lam dnh hffdng den nang su^t, s^n Iffdng, cdc chung vi khuan, nam phdt trien nhanh, manh gay ra dich benh, gay hien tffdng phu dffdng trong ao nuoi, song ho, dam pha.
Nhff vay, ndng nghidp va ndng thdn cua khu vffc Bac Trung Bd dang vd selalinhvi/c chiu anh hffdng cua tac ddng BDKH nang ne nh^t trong t^t ca cac ITnh vffc kinh te.
d) Tdc d$ng cUa bien dot khi h4u den ngdnh cong nghi$p:
Khu vffc Bac Trung Bd vd'n da cd mgtnen nhidt dd trung binh cao va thffdng bien dgng hdn nhffng ndi khac, nhidt do tang din den Iffdng bdc hdi tang ke't hdp vdi sff that thffctng trong che' do mffa ldm thay doi Iffdng dtf trfl va lffu Iffdng eda cdc thuy didn gay anh hffdng de'n kha nang cung ffng vd dieu tietke hoach sdn xuat thuy didn. Nhidt do tang din dd'n chi phi lam mat, thdng gid trong cac nha mdy sdn xuat cdng nghidp tang len dangke nham ddm bao sffc kh6e cho ngffdi lao dgng, cung nhff bao qudn mdy mdc thiet bi va thanh pham, nguydn v&t lieu,... Iffdng tieu thu dien cho sinh boat va cac nha may san xuat cdng nghiep cung tang nhanh do si!
dung nhilu thie't bi de lam mat nhtf quat
HaClNG Tdl KY NIEM 410 NAM QUANG BJNH HJNH THANH VA PHATTRIEN ( 1 6 0 4 - 2 0 1 4 ) : 5 j ] ^
NGHIEN Cl/U - TRAO DOI
dien, may dilu hda nhiet do, thdng gid,...
ddn de'n sff cd Iffdi dign vd edc tram bi^n dp xdy ra thffdng xuydn vi nhu du sff dung di^n vffdt qua phu tai cffa cdc nhd mdy dien, ding thdi nhilu cd sd san xu^t cdng nghidp se bi thil^u nguon dien In dinh ldm cdc cd sd sdn xuat kinh doanh kdm hieu qud,... Nhidt do tdng dan de'n Iffdng bd'c hdi tdng k^t hdp vdi sff thd't thffdng trong chd'dd mffa lam thay dii Iffdng dff trff va lffu Iffdng ciia cdc nhd mdy thdy dign gay dnh hffdng dl^n khd ndng cung ffng vd dilu tid^t kl^ hoach sdn xud't thuy dif n.
Theo nhff kich bdn BDKH cho khu vffc, ne'u nhff mffc nffdc bien dang cao Im, thi he th^ng ha tang ky thudt trong cdc cum cong nghidp va Idng nghi 6 cdc vung ven bien cd nguy cd bi ngap ung, giao thdng bi chia eat khong the giao lffu thuan ldi vdi bdn ngodi...
Mgt sd vung chuydn canh sdn xud't nguydn lidu cung cS^p cho cac cd sd sdn xua't cong nghidp (nhff che' bie'n san, cao su...) bi thu hep hoac khdng edn nffa, gay khd khan ve nguin nguydn lidu cho cac cd sd san xua't.
Cdc nha xffdng va cd sd ha ting cfla khu CN dffdc thiet ke^theo tieu chuan hidn hdnh chffa tinh den BDKH nen khi g|p bao manh, mffa cffdng dd ldn se bi hff hai hode ngap lut.
e) Tdc dgng cua bii'n ddi khi hau de'n ngdnh xdy dUng vd giao thdng vdn tdi:
Vung dong bang ven bien khu vffc Bac Trung Bd chiem khodng 30% didn tich va tap trung nhieu do thi vffa va nhd, m§t dd ddn cff ddng, thffdng xuydn bi dnh hffdng cua bao lut, ngdp ung ngay cang trim trgng. Trong nhffng nam tdi, do bil^n doi khi hau, Iffdng mffa va ddng chdy cd thi tdng cao, nhffng do c6 cdc ho thffdng nguon dilu tid^t ndn lu khdng cdn dc lidt nhff nhffng nam vffa qua.
Tuy nhidn, do ndm trong khu vffc thap trung ndn khi nffdc biln dang cao mdt sd dd thi ven
bien bi ngdp lau hdn trffdc do nffdc lu khdng thodt kip. Nffdc biln ddng se de dga cdc cdng trinh cdng nghigp, giao thdng v^n tdi, an ninh qud'c phdng dffdc thil't kd' theo mtfc hidn tai dnh hffdng dd ben cffa cdng trinh. Tdc ddng ciia nffdc bien ddng gdy xdi Id trong khu vffc dan cff ven biln ldm m^t nhd cffa cua nhdn dan. Didn tich khu dan cff ven bd hi thu hep.
Tin suat dnh hffdng cua bao tdng, cffdng do ciaa bao manh hdn se vffdt qud tidu chu^n thil't kd'hidn hdnh, gdy hff hai cdng ttinh.
Trong linh vffc giao thdng vdn tdi, dnh hffdng ciaa bien dii khi hau khd rd net;
-•• Theo kich bdn BDKH, dd'n nam 2100 mffc nffdc bien dang eao them Im so vdi hien nay, dieu do lam cho cdc hdi cang bao gom cau tau, nha kho, ben bai dffdc thie^t ke theo mffc nffdc biln hidn tai se phai dffdc ndng cd'p dl chiu dffng dffdc chd'dd sdng gid. Cdc tuyd'n dffdng giao thdng nam sat biln se bi dnh hffdng.
+ Mffa vdi cffdng dd manh ldm cho cdng thoat nffdc thie't ke theo tidu chuan cu khdng ddm bao, gay ngap ung cue bg. Mffa lu cdn gay lu quet, sat Id da't phd buy cac cdng trinh giao thdng nhff cau cong, dffdng bg, dffdng s^t. Sat Id dd't cdn gdy deh tac giao thdng, nhd't Id tuyd'n dffdng Hi Chi Minh, eac tuyd'n qud'c Id theo hffdng Ddng - TSy vd tinh Id.
Mffa lu cung la nguyen nhan lam tang chi phi duy tu bdo dffdng vd sffa chffa eac cdng trinh giao thdng, lam cham tidn do xdy dffng cac cdng tiinh nam trong qui hoach. Cac tuyen dffdng thd'p d ding blng ngdp sdu hdn, thdi gian ngam nffdc lau hdn, cdc kdt can mat dffdng nhffa bi pha hdng rat nhanh va nhieu hdn. Cdc tuyd'n dffdng miln nui, vung cao bi sat Id mai taluy ngay cdng nghidm trgng, he thdng cau, cdng ngay cang td ra de bi pha hoai va qua tdi ve chtfc nang thoat nffdc.
S6A\V7
2012 LN^ ;^Hl/dNG Tdl KYNfEM 410 NAM QUANG BiNH HJNH THANH VA PHAT TRIEN (1604-2014)
NGHIEN CLfU - T R A 0 D 6 I
thodt lu. Sff xudng c^p cua h0 thdng clu dffdng vd nhffng sff cd tiong miia mffa Id cdn tid ldn dd'i vdi mdng vSn tdi, lifu thdng.
Trong mffa mffa lu nhilu ndi bj cd l$p, khdng thitil'pcln.
+ Vi#c thi cdng ha ting giao thdng ludn bj ch|m tid'n d0 do dnh hffdng ciia thdi ti^t vd chd't Iffdng gidm do khdng ddm bdo dffgc ydu clu ky thudt vl thdi tiet. Nhilu tuyl'n dffdng da bi phd hai gdy thidt hai ldn ngay trong qud trinh thi cdng. Ha ting giao thdng neu phdt triln theo dung quy hoach tff trffdc phdi dilu chinh rd't nhilu do gdp phdi cdc v^n dl vl thodtnffdctidnhlu.
f) Tdc dgng cua bien ddi khi h4u di'n ngdnh du lich:
Du lich la mgt nganh kinh te' tong hdp, cd tinh lidn vung, lidn ngdnh va tinh xa hdi hda rat cao; mdt quoc gia, vung lanh tho cd tai nguydn du lich mudn phat tiien nhanh va ben vffng phu thudc rd't nhilu vdo nhffng y^u to' tdc dgng, tiong dd dieu kien tff nhien ma van de dia hinh vd khi hau la vd cung quan tigng.
BDKH tac ddng manh me dl^n cd ba yd^u to' bin vffng ve kinh te, ben vffng vl xa hdi vd bin vffng vl tdi nguydn thien nhien va dieu kien tff nhien, do dd gian tie'p tdc ddng de'n sff nghiep phdt triln du lich.
+ BDKH kem theo cdc hidn tffdng thdi tiet cffc doan nhff: lu lut, bao, n^ng ndng,... dnh hffdng trffc tid'p dd'n boat dgng du lich, dnh hffdng dd'n tinh thdi vu cua du lich, ldm gidm hieu qud kinh doanh du lich cua vffng.
-^ Thi trffdng khach se cd nhffng nhiJng xao dgng nghiem ff-gng: Tff trffdc dd'n nay, thi trffdng khach truyin thd'ng cua du lich ti-ong vung la tff cdc nffdc Tdy Au, B^c My; mdc du trong nhffng nam trd lai day da co hffdng chuyen sang cdc thi trffdng Ddng Bac A, cac nffdc tiong khu vffc Asean, theo nha n dinh tiii
ddy Id nhttng thi trffdng cd mffc chi tid cao, nhttng dnh hffdng cia BDKH se ldm giSm thu nhgp cua hg vd do dd se lam gidm ddng ke Iffdng du khdch d^n tff cdc thi trtffing truylnthdngndy.
- BDKH se idm cho nhttng cd sd ha ting vd ket ciu xa hgi lidn quan den du lich, nh^t Id tai cdc vilng nffi cao, cdc vung thap triing, viing ven bd se bi huy hoai, tham chi hi nhS^o chim, dilu ndy dang Id nhttng de dga dii vdi vffng ven bien cua B^c Trung Bd.
g) Tdc dgng cua bii'n ddi khi h^u den cuQC song vd svtc khde c0ng dSng:
* Tdc dong den sulc khde c0ng ddng:
K^t qud nghien ctfu ve tic dgng cua bi^n doi khi hau ddi vdi con ngffdi do to chiic Global Humanitarian Forum cua cffu ting Thff k^ LHQ Kofi Annan vffa cdng bdcho bi^t, hidn nay, BDKH da cffdp di mang song cua 300.000 ngffdi moi nam va dnh hffdng de'n cuoc sdng cua 300 trieu ngffdi tidn trdi da't do tdc ddng tff nhttng ddt nang ndng, In lut va chay riifng gdy ra.
Nhiet do tang ldm tdng tdc ddng tieu ctfc ddi vdi sffc kho^ con ngffdi, dan den gia tdng mgt sd' nguy cd dd'i vdi tuoi gia, ngffdi m^c bgnh tim mach, bdnh thin kinh. Thien tai nhff bao, td, nffdc ddng, ngSp lut, han hdn, mffa ldn va sat Id da't... gia tang vl cffdng(^
vd tin sud't lam tdng sd ngffdi bi thiet mang vd dnh hffdng gidn til^p d^n stfc kho6 th6ng qua d nhidm mdi trffdng, suy dinh dtf9ng, bdnh tat.
BDKH lam tang khd nang xay ra mdt stf benh nhidt ddi: sdt rdt, sd't xuat huyl^t, laffl tang td'c do sinh tirffdng vd phat triln nhilu loai vi khuan va cdn trung, vat chii mang bdnh, lam tang sd Iffdng ngffdi bi bdnh nhil^
khuin delay lan. "
* Tdc dong den ddi sdng vd sinh kicua
< y < ^ HUCING Tdl KY NIEM 410 NAM QUANG BINH HJNH T H A N H VA PHAT T R I I N (1604-2014) T 1 ^
NGHIEN CLTU - TRAO DOI
ngUdiddn:
BDKH tdc dgng d^n tai sdn, sinh ke' cua ngffdi dan tai khu vffc, ddc bidt Id nhffng vung ndng thdn, miln mil, ven sdng, ven biln. Thidn tai, bao lu ap d^n, khid'n ngffdi dan ndi ddy khdng nhttng bi md't dd't, mat tdi sdn, mat ndi cff trff md ddi sdng ciia hg cung se hi dnh hffdng rd't ndng ne. Md't vide ldm, mat ke sinh nhai, khdng cdn dd't de sdn xud't, dd^t hi xdm nhdp mdn, ndng suat sdn xu^t se gidm, ddi hdi phdi thay doi ky thudt sdn xua't mdi hay thay doi cd cd'u ddi tffgng sdn xuat theo chiiu hffdng khdng cd ldi. Ngoai md^t tdi sdn,ngffdi ddn d khu vffc nay cdn chiu nhttng thiet thdi ve cdc van de ddi sdng tinh thin khac nhff viec hgc hanh, dich vu y td'. . . nhttng tdc ddng ndy cd thi lam suy gidm khd nang cffa con ngffdi tiong viec dam bdo cudc sd'ng, vffdt qua ddi ngheo.
* Tdc ddng denxd hgi do vdn de ngheo doi, diddnvdanninhxdhoi:
BDKH CO the lam cho nen kinh te' cham phat triln, ddi song va chat Iffdng cudc sdng cua con ngffdi gidm di keo theo la sff gia tang dan sd, ding thdi Id sff mit can ddi vl ddn so se xay ra. Sff suy giam didn tich, thid'u Iffdng thffc, ndi d va ngheo kiet tai nguyen thidn nhien khid'n nhilu ngffdi ngheo vung ndng thdn, vung ven biln, vung sdu bi tin thffdng.
Dieu nay khien hien tffdng di dan va doi chd mang tinh cd hgc gia tang nl^u khdng cd bien phap ddi phd. Lu lut hoanh hanh, nffdc biln dang cao se ldm thu hep dien tich khu dan cff sinh sdng ven biln, ven sdng; tn/c ti^p de dga den cudc song ngffdi dan, ngffdi ddn ngheo ndi ddy, budc hg phdi di cff vao sau trong ndi dia, dd thi, dan d^n lam md't nguIn sinh ke vd xdo trdn cudc sd'ng ngffdi dan.
Gay ra hien tffdng quy hoach dd thi hi pha vd,
mdi tiffdng dd thi se bi xlu di do sff gia tang cd hgc ve dan sd', gay khd khdn trong quy hoach sip xd'p lai ddn cff khIc phuc h$u qud khu vffc hi thidn tai vd phdng tidnh thidn tai.
4.Kd'tludn
Trong nhffng tiidp nidn trd lai ddy, BDKH todn cau da gdy ra nhffng tdc dgng trffc tid'p hay gidn tid'p de'n mdi trffdng sdng, den phat tiiln kinh te - xa hfi, ddi sd'ng eda con ngffdi mdt cdch ro net.
BDKH vd nffdc biln ddng da vd dang tdc dgng dl^n vd^n de phat triln kinh te' - xa hgi ciia cdc tinh tiong khu vffc Bdc Trung Bg.
Nd'u cdc cap, cac nganh, cdc dia phffdng khdng CO nhffng chinh sdch, ehien Iffdc va gidi phap hdp ly trong phdng trdnh va thich ffng vdi BDKH thi tiong nhffng ndm tdi mffc do anh hffdng dl^n cdc linh vffc KT-XH se cao hdn, thu nh§p binh qudn diu ngffdi gidm, ty Id hd nghdo tang ldn, tinh trang doi kem, thid^u Iffdng thffc se thffdng xuyen, d nhiem mdi trffdng, dich benh lay lan khdng the kiemsoatdffdc.
De ffng pho vdi BDKH va nffdc bien dang cho cac dia phffdng trong khu vffc cIn sdm triln khai thffc hidn cac chffdng trinh, ke hoach hanh ddng ffng phd vdi BDKH nham tffng bffdc danh gia dffdc nhttng tdc dgng tdi tffng nganh, tffng linh vffc mdt each chi tid^t va toan didn hdn. Khi cd nhffng ddnh gid chi tie't cho tffng nganh, linh vffc ve BDKH se gdp phan giup cho nganh, ITnh vffc va ban chi dao cd dffdc nhffng giai phdp ffng pho va thich ffng toan dien ve nhffng tac dgng cua BDKH tdi cac nganh, thanh phan kinh td' cho mdi dia phffdng vd ca khu vffc nham phat trien kinh te' theo hffdng da muc tieu va thich ffng dffdc vdi bie'n doi khi hau va nffdc bien
dang. j^j.
^ ^ HHUdNG Tdl KY N I E M 410 NAM QUANG BlNH HiNH THANH VA PHATTRIEN (1604-2014)
