lAP CHi CONG THIflNG
DE XUAT CACH THlfC
DO LlJClNG LAM PHAT d VIET NAM
• PHAM QUANG KHANH
TOM TAT:
Lam phat da ttfng la ndi am anh cua Viet Nam khi len de'n hai con sd. Dieu nay da anh htfdng de'n mgi mat trong ddi sdng kinh te' - xa hgi va cd the' gay tdc hai nghiem trgng dd'i vdi nen kinh le, cd ca'u nen kuih le dd bi ma'l can dd'i, lam cho boat dong cua he thd'ng tin dung rdi vao linh trang khiing hoang, ngudn diu ngSn sach giam. Tff yeu cSu cdp thie'l do, bai vie't di vao phan lich each thffc do Itfdng lam phat hign nay va nhffng va'n dd trong viec tinh lodn. Tren cd sd do, bai vie't de xua'l cdc giai phdp khde phuc nhtfng va'n de nay de cd dtfdc con sd chinh xac cho lam phat, nhdm giup Chinh phu cd bien phap kip thdi kiem soat vi md.
Tiif khoa: Lam phdt, CPI, hang hoa, thu ngan sach, ndn kinh te'.
1. Su" dung CPI do Itfdng lam phat hien nay Chi sd gid lieu dung (CPI - Consumer Price Index) la chi so' tinh theo phan tram de' phan dnh mtfc Ihay ddi Itfdng dd'i ciia gia hang lieu diing theo thdi gian, no phan anh tdc do thay ddi gid ciia cdcmathang tieu dung chinh nhtf itfdng thtfc, thtfc pha'm, quan ao, cha'l dd'i, nha d, thuo'c men., Hien nay, Viet Nam stf dung chi sd' gia lieu diing CPI de' phan dnh mtfc do tdng gid lieu diing chung, dtfdc tinh cho ca ntfdc, 8 viing kinh le' va 64 tinh, thanh pho' trtfc thuoc Trung tfdng va IS'y do lam can ctf do Itfdng lam phat.
CPI dtfdc bat dau tinh loan va sff dung de' phdn anh mtfc do tang gia lieu diing chung iff nam 1998 (trtfdc 1998, sff dung chi so' gia ban le - RPI). Ttf dd de'n nay, so' Itfdng va quyen sd ciia cac mat hang trong rd hang hda de' tinh CPI dtfdc cdp nhat va md rgng 5 nam mot lan, thdi die'm dtfdc chgn lam ndm go'c cung thay ddi theo: nam gdc 1995 (296 mat hang), 2000 (390 mat hang), 2005 (494 mat hang). Cdc mat hang trong rd hang hda CPI hien dtfdc phan chia thanh cdc nhom, chi Ue't theo cac ca'p: ca'p 1: 10 nhdm, cap 2: 32 nhdm, ca'p 3: 86 nhom, cap 4: 237 nhdm. Do dd,
60 So 10-Thdng 5/2019
lai thdi die'm trtfdc nam 2009, so' lieu CPI cua Viet Nam dtfdc chia lam 3 giai doan: 1998-2000, 2001-2005,2006-2009.
Giai doan 2009-2014, rd hang bao gdm 572 mat hang, lang 78 mat hang so vdi rd cu, Die'm dang chii y nha't trong cdch tinh mdi la ti trgng ah6m hang an va dich vu an uong giam chi cdn 39,93%
thay vi mffc 42,85% trtfdc day.
Giai doan 2015 - 2020, rd hang hda la 654 mat hang (lang 82 mat hang so vdi rd hang hda ky trtfdc). Gid vang va dd la My tren thi trffdng tif do vdn dffdc thu thap de'tinh chi so'gia vang va chi so gia do la My.
Cong thtfc cu the' do Tong cue Thdng ke dtfa ra:
T. p°'i",
- = l w ,
P:
Trong dd:
/'"*": chi sd gid ueu dCing ky bao cao I so vdi ky gdcO
p'f. gia mat hang i ky bao cao t; q'\ la gid mat hang i ky go'c
KINH IE
W°: quyen so' co' dinh nam gdc
Cong thtfc: (1) tinh CPI dai ban (ky bao cao so vdi ky go'c). Cdng thtfc nay da dtfdc dp dung nhieu nam va co nhieu tfu diem nhtf each tinh de hie'u, ngan ggn; nhtfng cung cd mgl so' nhtfdc diem khi giai quyel va'n de chgn mat hang mdi thay the' mat hang cu khong con ban tren thi Irtfdng, hang thdi vu hoac hang thay doi cha't Itfdng do moi so sanh deu phai thong qua mot ky gdc da chgn (vi du ky gdc 2000, ky gdc 2005, ky gdc 2010, ky gdc 2014...).
De khac phuc nhffng nhffdc die'm tren, hien nay, CPI dtfdc linh theo cdng thffc Laspeyres chuyen ddi - hay phtfdng phap so sanh vdi ky gdc ngan han. Cong thffc nay hoan loan ttfdng thich vdi cdng thtfc Laspeyres go'c. Dang tdng quat nhtf sau:
I'-
-Y.wr
(2)(2)
Trong do:
Diem mdi trong cdng thtfc (2) la thay cho viec tinh chi so' ca the' mat hang ky bao cao so trtfc tie'p vdi ky go'c bang viec tinh chi sg cd the' mai hang ky bao cao so vdi ky trtfdc sau do nhan vdi chi so' ca the mat hang do ky trtfdc so vdi nam go'c.
P! P' p] p',~^ p'"' Ding thtfc tren cd the vie'l nhtf sau:
'•pi 'pi 'p> (3)
Trong do:
(•^7^: la chi sd ca the' mat hang i thang bao cao so vdi ky go'c 0
ip/~^: la chi sd'ca the' mat hang i thdng trtfdc thang bag cdo so vdi ky gdc 0
;^7""': la chi so'cd the' mat hang i thdng biio cao so vdi thdng trtfdc
Cong thtfc (2) cd the vie't nhtf sau:
r - . ^ f
(4)Trong dd:
/'-*: chi sdgia lieu dung thdng bao cdo t so vdi ky gdc 0
ii';/^': la cbi so'ca the mat hang i thdng bao cao so vdi thang trtfdc
ipf'': la chi so' cd the' mat hang i thdng trtfdc thang bao cao so vdi ky gd^c 0
W'\: quyen so' co' dinh nam gdc
Cho de'n nay, Tong cue Thd'ng ke vdn thtfdng xuyen tinh todn va cong bd' CPI, ddng thdi theo 4 gdc so sanh khde nhau la:
+ CPI hang thdng so vdi thdng trtfdc + CPI hang thang so vdi thang 12 nam trtfdc + CPI hang thang so vdi cung thdng (cung ky) nam trtfdc
+ CPI so vdi nam gd^c cd dinh.
B6'n chi tieu CPI hang thang dtfdc linh theo 4 go'c so sanh khde nhau d tren deu cd y nghTa va phan dnh rieng ve stf bie'n dgng ciia gia ca thi trtfdng theo cac gdc do xem xet, ddnh gia khac nhau va phuc vu cho cdc muc dich, yeu c^u nghien ctfu, phan tich kinh te', xa hdi khac nhau. Thong thtfdng, chiing ta van thtfdng la'y to'c dp tang ciia CPI hang thdng so vdi thang 12 nam trtfdc la lam phat. Va viec xac dinh chi lieu ke' hoach lam phat hang nam theo CPI ciia thang 12 nam bao cao so vdi thang 12 nam trtfdc, tren cd sd do cong bd' so' lieu Ihtfc hien ca nam la mpl quan niem chtfa hoan loan chuan xac dan den mot so nam chtfa sat vdi thtfc trang lam phdt d ntfdc la.
2. Thtfc trang viec siS dung CPI do liftfng lam phat va dd xudft giai phap khac phuc
2.1. ThUc trang viec siidving CPI do lUdng l^m phdt
+ Chtfa phii hdp vdi thdng le qud'c te': Theo thdng le qudc te, CPI ca nam cua hau he't cac ntfdc dtfdc cong bo' la CPI cua ca nam bdo cao so vdi nam trtfdc.
-f Stf bie'n ddng gid cd ihi trtfdng cua mdt thang ndi chung la khong the' phan anh dtfdc stf bie'n dpng chung ciia gia ca mot nam, vi gia ca thi trtfdng ntfdc ta thtfdng bie'n ddng khong gid'ng nhau qua cdc thdng trong nam do linh thdi vu. Viec lay CPI ciia thdng 12 la mot thdng cuo'i ndm de' lam chi so'tinh lam phat cho ca nam thi lai cang khong the dai dien dtfdc va phan anh dung tinh hinh ca nam. Vi trong thang nay co ra't nhieu nhu cau mua sam, tieu dung co tinh ihdi vu ra^t Idn lac ddng den gia ca. Dd la cac nhu cau mua sam cuoi nam, nhu cau tieu dting miia dong, nhu cau phuc vu cac ngay le, te't nhtf Noel, Te'l dtfdng lich, chuan bi cho Te'l nguyen dan lam cho quan he cung - cau tren ihi irtfdng thtfdng bie'n dong manh hdn, gia ca tang
So 10-Thdng 5/2019 61
TAP GHi CONG IHK0NG
nhieu hdn va CPI thang 12 hang nam thtfdng cao hdn so vdi nhieu thdng trong nam. Do la chtfa ke de'n trffdng hdp khi cd cac ye'u to' ba'l thtfdng nhtf thien tai, bao lut, dich benh... tac ddng thi CPI se tang cao dot bie'n khong cdn tuan theo mdt qui luat naoca.
+ Khong Itfdng thich ve mat thdi gian trong quan he so sanh vdi cac chi lieu kinh te' vT md khac GDP va cdc chi lieu kinh te' vl md khac dtfdc tinh chung cho ca nam so vdi nam trtfdc, con lam phat lai dtfdc la'y theo to'c do lang CPI cua rieng thdng 12 so vdi thang 12 nam trtfdc lam Ihtfdc do cho lam phdt ca ndm. Dieu nay khdng cho phep sff dung de so sanh hay linh toan loai trtf ye'u td^
gia hay lam phat trong cac chi tieu kinh te' tdng hdp hang nam dtfdc linh bang gid tri nhtf tdng mffc banle hang hda va doanh thu dich vu lieu diing xa hpi, doanh thu hay gid tri tang them ciia mgl so' ngdnh dich vu cu the' khac „
Vi nhffng ly do iren, Tong cue Thd'ng ke cho bie'l, nam 2017, se tinh chi so'lam phdt theo each mdi, sal vdi thtfc te' va phii hdp thong le quo'c te'.
Viet Nam se ap dung tinh chi so' lam phat dtfa tren binh quan CPI cua 12 thang trong nam. Cdch tinh la ttf cdc CPI hang thang so vdi cung ky nam trtfdc se tinh dtfdc cac CPI binh quan theo cdc quang thdi gian khac nhau trong nam nhtf CPI theo cac qui, hoac CPI cua 2, 4, 5, 6, 7 thang..., quy va ca nam so vdi cung ky nam trtfdc. Cac CPI nay mdi thtfc stfphan dnh stf bie'n dong, tang giam ciia mat bang gia ca chung tren thi trtfdng trong nam. Do dd, cac CPI nay se cd d^y dii tinh cha't de lam cong cu so sanh, tinh todn loai irtf ye'u to'gid ddi vdi cac chi tieu kinh te' tdng hdp dtfdc tinh bang gid tri theo gia thtfc te'hang nam va cung phii hdp vdi thong le quo'c te'.
Tuy nhien, ngay cd khi da sff dung chi sd CPI binh qudn thi trong ngi tai ban than chi so'CPI vdn cdn nhieu nhtfdc die'm nen can cd each thtfc do Itfdng lam phdt hdp ly hdn,
2.2. De xua't cdch do lUdng lam phdt lam can cii dieu hdnh chinh sdch tien te
Muc dich ciia chi sdgid lieu diing CPI la phan
anh nhtfng thay ddi trong chi phi sinh boat (phan dnh mffc thu nhap can tang them nh^m giff cho mffc song khdng thay ddi). Tuy nhien, chi sdgia tieu diing khdng phai la chi lieu hoan bao vd chi phi sinh hoat. Cd 3 vd'n dd nay sinh vdi chi so'nay va rat khd khac phuc:
+ Dd lech thay the': Khi gia ca thay ddi thi khong phai mg' gia ca deu thay ddi theo cung m6t ly le, dieu nay cd nghTa la ngffdi tieu dung se mua nhffng hang ma gid ca re ttfdng do'i. Cd dieu chi sd CPI dtfdc tinh vdi ro hang hda co' dinh d nam gdc nhtf vliy chi sd' nay tfdc tinh qua cao mffc lang chi phi sinh boat.
+ Stf xud't hien nhffng hang hoa mdi: Ngtfdi tieu dung se cd nhieu Itfa chpn hdn, nghia la hang hda trd nen da dang hdn, ddng tien trd nen cd gia tn hdn, cd dieu CPI dtfa tren rd hang hda va dich vu co' dmh nen nd khong phan anh stf thay ddi nay trong stfc mua ciia dong tien.
-I- Sff thay ddi chat Itfdng hang hda; Chi sdgia chi phan anh mat thay ddi gid ma kh6ng the' hien dtfdc stf thay ddi ve cha't Itfdng, cho nen cd stf bong bong trong mtfc dp lang gia.
Thtfc le' trong viec didu hanh chinh sdch ti^n te thi chi so' nay cd mpl so' nhtfdc diem nhtf r^t nhay cam vdi cac cu sd'c ciia cung hay nhtfng ap Itfc do tang clu dieu nay gay khd khan cho viec ddnh gia chinh xac lac dung ciia chinh sdch ti^n te trong di^u hanh kinh le'vT mo. Do do, nen dung CPI de do Itfdng lam phdt trong ngan ban dd chi ra stf thay ddi irong mtfc gia ca anh htfdng de'n ddi sdng dan ctf nhtf the' nao. Cdn trong dai han vdi muc ueu lam cd sd cho viec hoach dinh cdc chinh sach kinh te'thi Viet Nam se do Itfdng lam phat bang chi sd lam phat cd ban (CPI sau khi loai trtf Itfdng thtfc, thtfc phd'm itfdi sd'ng; nang Itfdng va mat hang do Nha ntfdc quan ly bao gdm dich vu y td va dich vu giao due). Chi sd nay chi ra dtfdc xu htfdng lam phat dai ban ma cd the bi tac dpng trtfc tie'p iff chinh sach kinh te', cu thi \i chinh sach tien te. Luc nay CPI se cd y nghTa la cd sd de khai thac thdng tin do Itfdng xu htfdng lam phat tiem tang •
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
/. Tdng cue Thdng ke (2010). Phuong phdp tinh Chi sdgid lieu dung CPI.
62 So 10-Thdng 5/2019
KINH TE
2. Gido trinh Kinh tevi mo - Dai hoc Kinh te'qudc ddn.
3. Ngd Tri Long (2018), Gid duac lam phdt nhimg xud't hien ndi lo nam ke lie'p, Trang Cafef.vn
Ngay nhgn bai: 23/4/2019
Ngay phan bien danh gia va siia chffa: 3/5/2019 Ngay cha'p nh$n dang bai: 13/5/2019
Thong tin tdc gid:
ThS. PHAM QUANG KHANH Khoa Kinh te' ctf sd
Trifffng Dai hpc Kinh te'Ky thu^t cdng nghiep
PROPOSING THE METHOD OF MEASURING INFLATION RATE IN VIETNAM
• Master. PHAM QUANG KHANH Faculty of Fundamental Economics University of Economics - Technology for Industries
TOM TAT:
Inflation was a great concern of Vietnam when the country experienced a very high inflation rate. The high infladon rate affected every socio-economic activity. The high inflation could cause severe harm to the economy, easily make the economy's structure imbalanced, put the national credit system into crisis and reduce the budget revenue. As a result, this article analyzes how to measure the inflation and limitations related to the inflation calculation, thereby proposing solutions to overcome these mentioned limitations to accurately calculate the inflation rate in order to help the government have timely measurements of controlling macroeconomics.
Keywords: Inflation, CPI, commodities, budget revenue, economy.
So 10-Thdng 5/2019 63
