Morning Brief
Daily | August 22, 2017
IHSG (Jakarta Composite Index)
August 21
5,861.00Chg
-32.84pts (-0.56%)Volume (bn shares)
6.75Value (IDR tn)
6.69Adv 117
Dec 215
Unc 232
Untr 120
Foreign Transaction
(IDR bn)
Buy
1,892Sell
3,416Net Buy
(Sell)
(1524)Top Buy
NB Val. Top Sell
NS Val.
BBNI
80.18ASII
62.26BBRI
51.24HMSP
44.99PGAS
37.36TLKM
41.41UNTR
27.36BMRI
39.43CTRA
24.20GGRM
29.65LQ-45 Index
Top Gainers & Losers
Gainers
%
Losers
%
BJBR
6.3%BUMI
-4.9%ANTM
4.4%HMSP
-4.0%BRPT
3.0%LPPF
-3.6%INCO
2.9%AKRA
-3.0%SRIL
2.3%INTP
-2.8%Government Bond Yield & FX
Last
Chg.
Tenor: 10 year
6.8970% 0.01%USD/IDR
13,351.00 -0.08%KRW/IDR
11.72 0.04%Global Indexes
Index
Last
Chg.
%
Dow Jones
21,703.75 29.24 0.13%S&P 500
2,428.37 2.82 0.12%Nasdaq
6,213.13 (3.40) -0.06%FTSE 100
7,318.88 (5.10) -0.07%CAC 40
5,087.59 (26.56) -0.52%DAX
12,065.99 (99.20) -0.82%Nikkei
19,393.13 (77.28) -0.40%Hang Seng
27,154.68 107.11 0.40%Shanghai
3,286.91 18.18 0.56%KOSPI
2,355.00 (3.37) -0.14%EIDO
27.08 (0.03) -0.11%Commodities
Commodity
Last
Chg.
%
Gold (USD /troy oz.)
1,291.9 7.8 0.60%Crude Oil (USD /bbl)
47.37 (1.14) -2.35%Coal Newcas(USD/ton)
89.50 (0.30) -0.33%Gas (USD /mmbtu)
2.96 (0.30) 2.39%Nickel LME (USD /MT)
11,315 335.0 3.05%CPO (MYR/Ton)
2,711 30.0 1.12%Indonesian Market Recap
IHSG bergerak melemah kemarin. Mininmnya sentimen domestik
dimanfaatkan oleh investor asing untuk melakukan profit taking di sektor
consumer.
Top Losers: Consumer (-2,35%), Trade (-0,80%), Basic Industry (-0,78%)
Today’s Outlook: Spekulasi Pemangkasan Suku Bunga
Untuk hari ini kami mengestimasi IHSG bergerak melemah dengan support
range 5824 - 5826 dan resistance range 5888 - 5892. Dari global belum ada
sentimen negatif baru yang cukup signifikan. Sentimen ketegangan geopolitik
terkait Amerika diperkirakan kurang berpengaruh lagi. Dari domestik,
keputusan Bank Indonesia pada kali ini menjadi perhatian yang menarik. Untuk
pertemuan kali ini, mulai banyak pihak yang memperkirakan bahwa BI akan
memangkas suku bunga 25 bps walaupun banyak pihak pula yang
memperkirakan BI mempertahankan suku bunga.
JCI Movement
JCI - one month
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
JCI - intraday
Stocks Recommendation (details on the next page)
Trading Buy: AALI, ANTM, BMRI
Global Market
United States
Bursa Amerika bergerak datar tadi malam. Investor mencerna langkah politik
Amerika terkait perang di Afganistan dan di semenanjung Korea.
Europe
Bursa Eropa melemah kemarin di tengah masih adanya ketidakpastian kondisi
geopolitik. Rally pada sektor pertambangan membatasi pelemahan bursa.
Asia
Bursa Asia bergerak variatif kemarin. Investor mencerna perkembangan situasi
politik di Amerika serta latihan militer antara Korea Selatan dan Amerika.
Company News
BUKK : Memperoleh Komitmen Fasilitas Pembiayaan
TINS :
Menerbitkan Obligasi Rp1,5 Triliun
ASII :
Penjualan Motor Melonjak 53%
UNSP : Rencanakan Konversi Utang ke Saham
Domestic & Global News
Jokowi Signs Rule on Inflation Management Team
Trump Merancang Strategi AS untuk Afganistan
Indonesia Economic Data
Monthly Indicator
Last
Prev.
BI 7 Day Rev Repo Rate
4.75% 4.75%FX Reserve (USD bn)
127.76 123.09Trd Balance (USD bn)
(0.27) 1.63Exports Yoy
41.12% -11.82%Imports Yoy
54.02% -17.21%Inflation Yoy
3.88% 4.37%Quarterly Indicator
Last
Prev.
Real GDP
5.01% 5.01%Current Acc (USD bn)
(4.96) (2.40)Govt Spending Yoy
-1.93% -1.93%FDI (USD bn)
5.79 2.76Business Confidence
103.42 106.70Stocks Recommendation
AALI
Last = 14675
Analysis
Harga CPO dunia naik 1,1% ke posisi MYR2.711
per ton, tertinggi sejak bulan April. Hal ini
ditopang oleh ekspektasi bahwa produksi
Malaysia akan lebih rendah dari estimasi awal.
Range
14600 - 15100
Action
Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 14600
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Sector Rotation
Relative Rotation Graph - Last 10 Days
98 99 100 101 102 Agriculture Mining Infrastructure Basic Ind. Consumer
Finance Misc Ind.
Trade Property
Lagging
Improving
Leading
Weakening
BMRI
Last = 13200
Analysis
Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham (RUPS) BMRI
menyetujui rencana stock split dengan rasio
2:1. Hal ini akan semakin meningkatkan
likuiditas perdagangan saham BMRI.
Range
13050 - 13500
Action
Trading buy. Cut Loss If Below 13050
ANTM
Last = 715
Analysis
Pemerintah mengumumkan bahwa Freeport
telah setuju untuk melakukan divestasi 51%
kepemilikannya. Hal ini akan menopang
rencana proyek Smelter Grade Alumina
dengan ANTM.
Range
695 - 740
Relative Valuation
Source: Bloomberg
Last Price End of Last Year Price YTD Change (%) 1 Year Change (%) Market Cap (IDR tn) Price / BVPS Price / EPS (TTM) EV/ EBITDA (TTM) Return on Equity (%) EVA Spread (%) Dividend Yield TTM (%) Sales Growth Yoy (%) EPS Growth Yoy (%) Adjusted Beta JCI Index 10.7 8.0 6,446.3 Finance 1,823.7 BBCA 18,800 15,500 21.3 22.9 463.5 3.8 21.5 N/A 19.3 5.8 1.1 8.6 14.4 1.0 BBRI 15,275 11,675 30.8 28.9 376.8 2.5 13.6 N/A 19.4 10.9 2.8 9.7 4.0 1.5 BMRI 13,200 11,575 14.0 15.8 308.0 2.0 19.0 N/A 10.8 3.4 2.0 6.5 (32.1) 1.5 BBNI 7,400 5,525 33.9 28.1 138.0 1.5 10.3 N/A 15.6 0.5 2.9 15.2 25.3 1.4 BDMN 5,550 3,710 49.6 60.4 53.2 1.4 17.9 N/A 8.2 (0.1) 1.8 (7.9) 11.5 1.5 BBTN 2,830 1,740 62.6 46.3 30.0 1.5 10.5 N/A 15.2 (2.3) 1.7 14.6 41.1 0.8 BJBR 2,690 3,390 (20.6) 75.2 26.1 2.8 22.5 N/A 14.0 (2.4) 3.3 5.6 (16.2) 1.0 BJTM 720 570 26.3 15.2 10.8 1.5 10.5 N/A 15.2 3.3 6.1 2.5 16.2 1.2 Consumer 1,379.3 HMSP 3,590 3,830 (6.3) (10.7) 417.6 15.1 33.1 24.0 45.7 30 3.0 7.2 18.2 0.9 UNVR 48,325 38,800 24.5 6.6 368.7 75.2 54.9 37.9 137.1 91.3 1.7 9.8 9.4 1.0 GGRM 72,300 63,900 13.1 7.7 139.1 3.7 20.1 11.8 18.9 7.4 3.6 8.4 3.7 1.0 ICBP 8,675 8,575 1.2 (6.2) 101.2 5.6 27.2 16.9 21.9 13.1 1.8 8.6 20.0 1.3 KLBF 1,760 1,515 16.2 2.3 82.5 6.8 34.8 22.9 20.8 5.0 1.3 8.3 14.7 1.2 INDF 8,300 7,925 4.7 4.7 72.9 2.5 18.4 8.8 14.5 (3.2) 2.8 4.2 47.8 1.2 ROTI 1,185 1,600 (25.9) (25.2) 6.0 4.4 29.8 14.7 15.3 (0.0) 1.2 16.0 3.5 0.9 Infrastructure 849.17 TLKM 4,770 3,962 20.4 15.2 480.8 5.6 21.9 8.1 26.3 13.3 4.1 13.5 24.4 0.9 PGAS 2,200 2,700 (18.5) (30.6) 53.3 1.2 13.0 7.4 9.4 (4.1) 3.4 (4.4) (23.5) 1.2 JSMR 5,450 4,320 26.2 8.2 39.6 2.7 19.4 12.9 15.5 (3.8) 1.4 69.2 28.7 1.1 EXCL 3,380 2,310 46.3 (9.6) 36.1 1.7 124.7 6.6 1.4 (12.8) N/A (6.7) N/A 1.4 TBIG 6,675 4,980 34.0 11.7 30.2 16.7 37.3 14.7 41.8 (1.0) 3.3 8.5 (6.3) 0.8 Trade 699.9 UNTR 28,900 21,250 36.0 67.3 107.8 2.5 16.4 7.8 16.3 0.7 1.9 (7.7) 29.8 1.4 LPPF 10,600 15,125 (29.9) (48.0) 30.9 17.4 14.0 9.3 157.4 89.4 4.6 9.9 13.3 1.1 SCMA 2,300 2,800 (17.9) (29.0) 33.6 8.4 22.3 15.6 39.7 21.2 1.6 6.8 (1.5) 1.1 AKRA 6,550 6,000 9.2 (2.2) 26.2 3.6 25.7 19.3 14.5 (2.2) 2.3 (23.0) (3.0) 0.7 MNCN 1,465 1,755 (16.5) (22.3) 20.9 2.3 17.6 9.1 12.9 (0.5) 2.9 4.4 17.4 1.2 ACES 1,065 835 27.5 7.6 18.3 5.9 22.7 17.6 28.1 8.0 1.5 4.1 20.8 1.3 BMTR 498 615 (19.0) (47.0) 7.1 0.8 N/A 5.8 (0.9) (4.9) 1.0 (1.1) 194.0 1.5 Property 422.5 BSDE 1,850 1,755 5.4 (16.3) 35.6 1.6 11.9 11.7 14.2 (3.3) 0.3 5.0 (17.0) 1.5 LPKR 790 720 9.7 (31.9) 18.2 0.9 25.1 15.0 4.0 (7.9) 0.2 18.6 64.8 1.0 PWON 670 565 18.6 2.3 32.3 3.4 19.3 13.1 19.4 1.2 0.7 4.7 32.4 1.4 WSKT 2,260 2,550 (11.4) (18.1) 30.7 2.7 9.0 14.2 22.5 (3.4) 1.7 68.1 63.5 0.8 SMRA 1,125 1,325 (15.1) (40.3) 16.2 2.6 48.3 14.0 5.5 (4.2) 0.4 (4.0) (63.6) 1.8 CTRA 1,235 1,335 (7.5) (24.9) 22.9 1.8 17.8 13.5 8.8 (4.3) 0.5 (10.3) (33.6) 1.4 PTPP 2,840 3,810 (25.5) (34.9) 17.6 1.8 18.0 8.6 15.0 (0.6) 1.7 15.8 13.5 0.8 WIKA 2,000 2,360 (15.3) (33.3) 17.9 1.5 12.2 N/A 14.8 (1.8) 1.7 15.0 68.3 0.9 ADHI 2,070 2,080 (0.5) (26.1) 7.4 1.3 18.9 10.9 7.4 (4.3) 1.3 17.8 (56.6) 0.8 ASRI 370 352 5.1 (28.8) 7.3 0.9 11.0 8.7 8.9 (3.3) 0.4 (2.4) (14.7) 1.3 APLN 232 210 10.5 (25.2) 4.8 0.6 7.8 6.1 7.9 3.9 0.9 0.6 (21.3) 0.9 Misc Ind. 385.6 ASII 7,875 8,275 (4.8) (5.1) 318.8 2.7 18.3 11.8 15.8 (5.8) 2.1 (1.7) 4.8 1.5 SRIL 352 230 53.0 29.4 6.5 1.4 7.9 6.7 19.2 1.4 0.9 9.3 6.7 0.6 Basic Ind. 453.9 INTP 19,250 15,400 25.0 5.2 70.9 3.0 30.2 20.7 9.7 (7.1) 4.8 (13.7) (11.2) 1.5 SMGR 10,850 9,175 18.3 (2.7) 64.4 2.3 17.6 13.6 13.4 (3.8) 2.8 (3.0) 0.0 1.2 CPIN 2,860 3,090 (7.4) (25.7) 46.9 3.2 23.0 10.2 14.1 1.5 2.0 27.9 29.1 1.1 WTON 585 825 (29.1) (39.1) 5.1 2.0 18.7 10.4 11.9 (0.9) 1.7 31.3 56.7 1.1 Mining 322.2 ADRO 1,865 1,695 10.0 67.3 59.7 1.4 12.0 5.4 12.1 (4.5) 2.3 (6.0) 119.3 1.6 INCO 2,800 2,820 (0.7) (2.1) 27.8 1.1 N/A 8.7 0.0 (8.9) N/A (26.0) N/A 0.7 PTBA 12,900 12,500 3.2 30.0 29.7 2.3 8.8 5.9 28.9 9.3 2.2 2.4 1.2 1.3 ANTM 715 895 (20.1) (7.7) 17.2 0.9 259.4 27.6 0.4 (6.8) N/A (13.5) N/A 0.7 ITMG 20,025 16,875 18.7 74.9 22.6 1.8 8.3 3.3 22.7 11.5 7.9 (14.0) 100.0 0.9Agriculture 109.9
AALI 14,675 16,775 (12.5) (13.7) 28.2 1.6 12.5 N/A 13.5 1.2 3.2 8.1 203.2 0.6 SSMS 1,530 1,400 9.3 (8.9) 14.6 3.9 22.9 12.9 19.8 0.5 1.2 14.8 9.2 0.8 LSIP 1,380 1,740 (20.7) (16.4) 9.4 1.2 10.2 5.0 11.9 1.1 2.5 (8.2) (4.4) 0.4