Morning Brief. NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia

Morning Brief

Daily | Oct 24, 2017

IHSG (Jakarta Composite Index)

Oct 23 5,950.03

Chg +20.48pts (+0.35%)

Volume (bn shares) 92.49

Value (IDR tn) 6.44

Adv 146 Dec 189 Unc 235 Untr 117

Foreign Transaction

(IDR bn)

Buy 2,234

Sell 1,862

Net Buy (Sell) 372

Top Buy NB Val. Top Sell NS Val.

BBRI 179.79 UNTR 52.14

BBCA 103.38 UNVR 27.84

ASII 40.78 WSKT 23.97

WIKA 40.44 MIKA 11.22

HMSP 30.49 CPIN 10.11

LQ-45 Index

Top Gainers & Losers

Gainers % Losers % BUMI 11.3% BJBR -2.8% WIKA 4.7% UNTR -2.6% PGAS 3.9% ANTM -2.3% BMTR 3.3% MNCN -2.3% BBCA 3.2% BMRI -2.1%

Government Bond Yield & FX

Last Chg. Tenor: 10 year 6.7180% 0.07% USD/IDR 13,543.00 0.18% KRW/IDR 11.98 0.29%

Global Indexes

Index Last Chg. % Dow Jones 23,273.96 (54.67) -0.23% S&P 500 2,564.98 (10.23) -0.40% Nasdaq 6,586.83 (42.23) -0.64% FTSE 100 7,524.45 1.22 0.02% CAC 40 5,386.81 14.43 0.27% DAX 13,003.14 11.86 0.09% Nikkei 21,696.65 239.01 1.11% Hang Seng 28,305.88 (181.36) -0.64% Shanghai 3,380.70 2.05 0.06% KOSPI 2,490.05 0.51 0.02% EIDO 26.61 (0.10) -0.37%

Commodities

Commodity Last Chg. %

Gold (USD /troy oz.) 1,282.3 1.8 0.14%

Crude Oil (USD /bbl) 51.90 0.06 0.12%

Coal Newcas(USD/ton) 95.40 (0.40) -0.42%

Gas (USD /mmbtu) 2.99 (0.40) 2.61%

Nickel LME (USD /MT) 11,860 125.0 1.07%

CPO (MYR/Ton) 2,787 46.0 1.68%

Indonesian Market Recap

IHSG menguat kemarin dipimpin sektor pertambangan di tengah sentimen

regional dari hasil Pemilu di Jepang. Top Gainers : Mining (+1.64%), Basic

Industry (+0,81%), Consumer (+0.38%)

Today’s Outlook: Rilis Kinerja Saham Perbankan

Untuk hari ini kami mengestimasi IHSG untuk bergerak menguat dengan support

range 5932-5935 dan resistance range 5967-5970. Pada hari ini BMRI akan

merilis kinerja 3Q17. Berdasarkan estimasi, laba bersih BMRI diperkirakan akan

mencapai IDR119,7 atau tumbuh 11,9% y-y. Kemarin BBTN juga baru saja merilis

kinerja laba bersih dengan pertumbuhan sebesar 26,8%. Rilis dari laba bersih

yang cukup baik dari sektor perbankan ini diperkirakan masih akan menopang

positifnya pergerakan bursa. Di sisi lain, berdasarkan estimasi Bank Indonesia

inflasi pada Oktober hanya sebesar 3,66%.

JCI Movement

JCI - one month Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

JCI - intraday

Stocks Recommendation (details on the next page)

Trading Buy: LSIP, TPIA, BBTN

Global Market

United States

Bursa Amerika melemah tadi malam. Saham General Electric menjadi pemberat

pergerakan bursa setelah rilis kinerja yang mengecewakan.

Europe

Bursa Eropa ditutup naik kemarin. Investor mencerna rilis laporan keuangan

serta berupaya mengabaikan kekuatiran krisis politik di Spanyol.

Asia

Bursa Asia bergerak naik kemarin setelah hasil Pemilu Jepang yang

menghasilkan kemenangan bagi Partai pendukung PM Shinzo Abe.

Company News

DOID

: Produksi Batubara Naik 23%

TPIA

: Mendapatkan Rating Ba3 dari Moody's

BTPN : Laba Tumbuh 16%

MAPI : Tutup Lotus Department Store

Domestic & Global News

Survei Menunjukan Bahwa Inflasi Indonesia Berada pada 3,66 y-y

Minyak Mentah AS Naik 0,06 Dollar

Indonesia Economic Data

Monthly Indicator Last Prev. BI 7 Day Rev Repo Rate 4.25% 4.50%

FX Reserve (USD bn) 129.40 128.79

Trd Balance (USD bn) 1.76 1.72

Exports Yoy 15.60% 19.24%

Imports Yoy 13.13% 8.89%

Inflation Yoy 3.72% 3.82%

Quarterly Indicator Last Prev.

Real GDP 5.01% 4.94%

Current Acc (USD bn) (4.96) (2.10)

Govt Spending Yoy -1.93% -4.05%

FDI (USD bn) 5.79 (7.71)

Business Confidence 111.63 106.70

Stocks Recommendation

LSIP

Last = 1440

Analysis

Harga CPO dunia naik 1,68% kemarin ditopang

oleh peningkatan ekspor Malaysia sebesar

11,6% m-m pada periode 1-20 Oktober.

Range

1420 – 1490

Action

Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 1420

TPIA

Last = 26300

Analysis

TPIA telah menyiapkan beberapa bank sebagai

bookrunner dalam persiapan penerbitan

global bond.

Range

26050 – 27800

Action

Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 26050

BBTN

Last = 3060

Analysis

Laba bersih BBTN pada 3Q17 tercatat sebesar

IDR734,2 miliar, tumbuh 26,8% y-y.

Range

3010 - 3300

Action

Trading buy. Cut Loss If Below 3010

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Sector Rotation

Source: Bloomberg

Relative Rotation Graph - Last 10 Days

98 99 100 101 102 103 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 Agriculture Mining Infrastructure Basic Ind. Consumer Finance Misc Ind. Trade Property

Lagging

Improving

Leading

Weakening

Relative Valuation

Source: Bloomberg Last Price End of Last Year Price YTD Change (%) 1 Year Change (%) Market Cap (IDR tn) Price / BVPS Price / EPS (TTM) EV/ EBITDA (TTM) Return on Equity (%) EVA Spread (%) Dividend Yield TTM (%) Sales Growth Yoy (%) EPS Growth Yoy (%) Adjusted Beta JCI Index 12.3 9.8 6,564.0 Finance 1,907.5 BBCA 21,000 15,500 35.5 34.0 517.8 4.3 24.0 N/A 19.3 6.9 1.0 8.6 14.4 0.9 BBRI 15,625 11,675 33.8 28.1 385.5 2.5 13.9 N/A 19.4 12.5 2.7 9.7 4.0 1.3 BMRI 6,950 5,788 20.1 24.1 324.3 2.1 20.0 N/A 10.8 4.6 1.9 6.5 (32.1) 1.3 BBNI 7,550 5,525 36.7 38.5 140.8 1.5 10.2 N/A 15.3 0.8 2.8 15.2 25.3 1.2 BDMN 5,275 3,710 42.2 32.5 50.6 1.4 17.0 N/A 8.2 0.8 1.8 (7.9) 11.5 1.4 BBTN 3,060 1,740 75.9 57.7 32.4 1.6 11.4 N/A 15.2 (1.8) 1.6 14.6 41.1 0.8 BJBR 2,430 3,390 (28.3) 45.1 23.6 2.4 19.9 N/A 12.5 (0.7) 3.7 5.6 (16.2) 0.7 BJTM 675 570 18.4 21.6 10.1 1.4 8.4 N/A 17.8 3.8 6.5 2.5 16.2 1.3 Consumer 1,412.3 HMSP 3,930 3,830 2.6 (3.7) 457.1 16.5 36.2 26.6 45.7 30 2.7 7.2 18.2 1.1 UNVR 49,150 38,800 26.7 10.7 375.0 76.4 55.8 38.5 137.1 128.3 1.7 9.8 9.4 1.2 GGRM 62,775 63,900 (1.8) (4.7) 120.8 3.2 17.4 10.3 18.9 6.8 4.1 8.4 3.7 1.2 ICBP 8,850 8,575 3.2 (6.8) 103.2 5.7 31.4 17.4 21.9 17.7 1.7 8.6 20.0 1.5 KLBF 1,685 1,515 11.2 (2.6) 79.0 6.5 33.3 21.9 20.8 6.5 1.3 8.3 14.7 1.1 INDF 8,350 7,925 5.4 (4.3) 73.3 2.5 18.6 N/A 14.5 (3.2) 2.8 4.2 47.8 1.2 ROTI 1,270 1,600 (20.6) (19.4) 7.5 4.7 32.0 18.0 15.3 0.7 1.1 16.0 3.5 0.9 Infrastructure 793.15 TLKM 4,250 3,962 7.3 1.2 428.4 5.0 19.6 7.3 26.3 13.3 4.6 13.5 24.4 1.1 PGAS 1,745 2,700 (35.4) (32.1) 42.3 1.0 14.9 8.2 6.6 (5.2) 4.3 (4.4) (23.5) 1.3 JSMR 5,950 4,320 37.7 29.4 43.2 3.0 21.2 13.6 15.5 (3.2) 1.3 69.2 28.7 1.0 EXCL 3,400 2,310 47.2 37.1 36.3 1.7 125.4 6.6 1.4 (11.2) N/A (6.7) N/A 1.0 TBIG 6,400 4,980 28.5 4.1 29.0 21.4 30.8 14.9 55.3 (0.8) 2.3 8.5 (6.3) 0.7 Trade 740.9 UNTR 32,150 21,250 51.3 58.2 119.9 2.8 18.3 8.8 16.3 1.7 2.1 (7.7) 29.8 1.2 LPPF 9,500 15,125 (37.2) (50.0) 27.7 15.6 12.6 8.3 157.4 89.8 5.1 9.9 13.3 1.4 SCMA 2,140 2,800 (23.6) (20.1) 31.3 7.8 20.8 14.5 39.7 22.2 1.7 6.8 (1.5) 0.9 AKRA 7,450 6,000 24.2 9.6 29.8 4.1 29.2 21.6 14.5 (1.9) 2.0 (23.0) (3.0) 0.9 MNCN 1,510 1,755 (14.0) (28.4) 21.6 2.3 18.1 9.4 12.9 0.2 2.8 4.4 17.4 1.2 ACES 1,280 835 53.3 46.3 22.0 7.0 27.3 21.4 28.1 10.4 1.3 4.1 20.8 0.9 BMTR 620 615 0.8 (25.3) 8.8 1.0 N/A 6.2 (0.9) (4.2) 0.8 (1.1) 194.0 1.2 Property 419.6 BSDE 1,770 1,755 0.9 (19.5) 34.1 1.5 11.4 11.3 14.2 (2.0) 0.3 5.0 (17.0) 1.3 LPKR 710 720 (1.4) (21.5) 16.4 0.8 18.5 15.5 4.7 (7.8) 0.3 18.6 64.8 1.1 PWON 635 565 12.4 (14.2) 30.6 3.3 18.3 12.5 19.4 3.1 0.7 4.7 32.4 1.1 WSKT 2,160 2,550 (15.3) (16.6) 29.3 2.3 6.6 11.8 28.9 (2.7) 1.8 68.1 63.5 1.0 SMRA 1,045 1,325 (21.1) (38.5) 15.1 2.4 44.8 13.3 5.5 (2.4) 0.5 (4.0) (63.6) 1.2 CTRA 1,205 1,335 (9.7) (22.8) 22.4 1.7 17.2 13.9 9.0 (2.6) 0.4 (10.3) (33.6) 1.0 PTPP 2,850 3,810 (25.2) (28.8) 17.7 1.8 16.0 8.3 16.9 (2.4) 1.7 15.8 13.5 0.9 WIKA 1,990 2,360 (15.7) (18.3) 17.9 1.5 12.7 N/A 14.8 (1.0) 1.7 15.0 68.3 0.8 ADHI 2,160 2,080 3.8 (6.1) 7.7 1.4 19.8 11.2 7.4 (3.9) 1.2 17.8 (56.6) 0.8 ASRI 382 352 8.5 (18.0) 7.5 1.0 11.4 8.8 8.9 (2.3) 0.4 (2.4) (14.7) 1.0 APLN 250 210 19.0 (16.7) 5.1 0.6 4.7 5.5 13.3 1.5 0.8 0.6 (21.3) 0.8 Misc Ind. 401.2 ASII 8,050 8,275 (2.7) (3.0) 325.9 2.8 18.7 12.5 15.8 (4.4) 2.1 (1.7) 4.8 1.3 SRIL 384 230 67.0 52.4 7.1 1.5 8.5 7.1 18.6 2.5 0.8 9.3 6.7 0.7 Basic Ind. 485.4 INTP 19,600 15,400 27.3 17.7 72.2 3.1 30.8 21.1 9.7 (5.9) 4.7 (13.7) (11.2) 1.4 SMGR 10,550 9,175 15.0 5.8 62.6 2.2 17.1 13.3 13.4 (2.9) 2.9 (3.0) 0.0 1.1 CPIN 3,050 3,090 (1.3) (16.4) 50.0 3.4 24.6 10.8 14.1 2.1 1.8 27.9 29.1 1.1 WTON 640 825 (22.4) (28.5) 5.6 2.2 18.6 10.6 12.7 1.1 1.5 31.3 56.7 0.7 Mining 332.8 ADRO 1,850 1,695 9.1 21.3 59.2 1.3 10.1 4.8 13.9 5.3 2.3 (6.0) 119.3 1.3 INCO 2,990 2,820 6.0 12.0 29.7 1.2 N/A 9.2 0.0 (10.2) N/A (26.0) N/A 1.4 PTBA 10,700 12,500 (14.4) (12.1) 24.7 1.8 6.2 4.1 32.2 13.6 2.7 2.4 1.2 1.3 ANTM 645 895 (27.9) (23.2) 15.5 0.9 N/A 23.3 (2.4) (9.2) N/A (13.5) N/A 1.0 ITMG 22,700 16,875 34.5 73.6 25.6 2.0 9.3 3.8 22.7 12.2 6.9 (14.0) 100.0 0.9

Agriculture 110.9

AALI 14,725 16,775 (12.2) (3.9) 28.3 1.6 12.6 N/A 13.5 1.5 3.5 8.1 203.2 0.7 SSMS 1,470 1,400 5.0 (6.1) 14.0 3.9 18.6 11.9 22.5 1.4 1.3 14.8 9.2 0.8 LSIP 1,440 1,740 (17.2) (5.9) 9.8 1.2 10.4 5.4 12.5 1.5 2.4 (8.2) (4.4) 0.8

Company News

Domestic & Global News

Survei Menunjukan Bahwa Inflasi Indonesia Berada pada 3,66 y-y

Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) Agus Martowardojo yakin bahwa inflasi akan berada di kisaran target pada 2017 dan 2018.

Survei oleh BI pada pekan ketiga menunjukan bahwa pada Oktober, inflasi berada pada 3,66% y-y. Bank sentral melihat

kondisi perekonomian dalam keadaan baik dengan pertumbuhan 5,1%-5,2% pada 2017. Defisit current-account tidak akan

melebihi 2% dari PDB pada 2017. (Bloomberg)

Minyak Mentah AS Naik 0,06 Dollar

Pada Senin, 23/10, harga minyak mengalami sedikit perubahan di tengah sinyal penurunan pengeboran minyak oleh AS

dan gangguan pasokan minyak di Irak, negara kedua penghasil minyak terbesar, menghambat ekspor minyak. Minyak

mentah West Texas Inermediate (WTI) ditutup naik 0,06 dollar pada 51,90. Perusahaan Pelayanan Energi, Baker Huges,

pada Jumat, 20/10, mengatakan bahwa jumlah rig pengeboran AS untuk eksplorasi tambang baru turun 7 menjadi 736

pada Oktober 20, level terendah sejak Juni. (CNBC)

DOID : Produksi Batubara Naik 23%

Produksi batubara PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID)

tercatat mencapai 3,1 juta ton sepanjang September 2017.

Dengan demikian, DOID telah mengakumulasi produksi

batubara sebanyak 30,6 juta ton selama perioda Januari

-September 2017 atau naik 23% y-y. Tahun ini, DOID

mematok target produksi batubara mencapai 45 juta - 50

juta ton. (Kontan)

TPIA : Mendapatkan Rating Ba3 dari Moody's

Moody's Investors Service menyematkan peringkat Ba3

terhadap surat utang yang akan diterbitkan PT Chandra

Asri Petrochemical Tbk (TPIA). TPIA berencana merilis

senior unsecured notes senilai US$300 juta. Hasil

penerbitan surat utang rencananya akan digunakan

untuk pendanaan ekspansi kapasitas dan ekspansi belanja

modal. (Bisnis Indonesia)

BTPN : Laba Tumbuh 16%

PT Bank Tabungan dan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk (BTPN)

mencetak kenaikan laba bersih per September 2017

sebesar 16% menjadi Rp1,4 triliun. Kenaikan ini didorong

oleh pendapatan bunga dari penyaluran kredit. Hingga

September 2017, kredit BTPN naik 5% menjadi Rp62,6

triliun dengan NPL yang terjaga di angka 0,9%. (Kontan)

MAPI : Tutup Lotus Department Store

PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk (MAPI) tidak akan lagi

mengoperasikan Lotus Department Store bulan ini,

dikarenakan tidak berkontribusi positif terhadap MAPI.

Penutupan

tersebut

merupakan

bagian

dari

restrukturisasi usaha divisi department store. (Kontan)

Global Economic Calendar

Date

Country

Hour

Jakarta

Event

Period

Actual

Consensus

Previous

Monday

EU

21:00 Consumer Confidence

Oct A

-1.0

-1.1

-1.2

23 - Oct

Tuesday

JPN

07:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg

Oct P

--

52.9

24- Oct

GER

14:30 Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI

Oct P

60

60.6

EU

15:00 Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

Oct P

57.7

58.1

USA

20:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI

Oct P

53

53.1

Wednesday

GER

15:00 IFO Business Climate

Oct

115

115.2

25 - Oct

UK

15:30 GDP QoQ

3Q A

0.30%

0.30%

UK

15:30 GDP YoY

3Q A

1.50%

1.50%

USA

19:30 Durable Goods Orders

Sep P

1.30%

2.00%

USA

21:00 New Home Sales

Sep

550k

560k

Thursday

GER

13:00 GfK Consumer Confidence

Nov

10.8

10.8

26 - Oct

EU

18:45 ECB Main Refinancing Rate

26-Oct

0.00%

0.00%

USA

19:30 Initial Jobless Claims

21-Oct

--

222k

Friday

JPN

06:30 Natl CPI YoY

Sep

0.70%

0.70%

27 - Oct

USA

19:30 GDP Annualized QoQ

3Q A

2.50%

3.10%

Source: Bloomberg

Corporate Calendar

Date

Event

Company

Tuesday

Rights Delisting Date

SILO

24 - Oct

Wednesday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting

BFIN

25 - Oct

Thursday

Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting

MPMX, WOOD

26 - Oct

Friday

Rights Delisting Date

MAYA

27 - Oct

Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting

ENRG

Annual Shareholder Meeting

RINA

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